A Global Assessment of Hydrogen for Future

Automotive Transportation: Projected Energy

Requirements and CO
2
Emissions
Audun Freyr Ingvarsson,
1
Julien Pestiaux,
2
and Francis M. Vanek
3
1
Fortius Capital Trust, Rejkyavik, Iceland
2
McKinsey & Company, New York, NY, USA
3
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University,
Ithaca, NY, USA
ABSTRACT
The proposed transition to hydrogen is aimed at resolving global issues, such as
petroleum scarcity and CO
2
emissions, so it is sensible to look at this transition
at a global level. In this paper, we present a model, named the World Hydrogen
Transition Model (WHTM), that seeks to achieve two goals: 1) a projection of
requirements for worldwide automobile travel measured in vehicle-kilometers tra-
veled through the end of the 21st century, and 2) a prediction of hydrogen and
underlying energy resource requirements based on different scenarios for
improvement in vehicle efficiency, introduction of fuel cell vehicles, and introduc-
tion of hydrogen produced from non-fossil resources. The model includes indus-
trializing and less developed as well as industrialized countries. Results from the
model suggest that, for a range of likely scenarios, energy consumption for auto-
mobile travel will be as great or greater than current levels. However, if the tran-
sition to hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can be carried out successfully in the
middle of the century, and is then followed by a transition to hydrogen from
non-fossil resources, total petroleum consumption and CO
2
emissions from the
automobile sector could be greatly reduced compared to current levels, thereby
making motorized personal transportation more sustainable. Applicability to other
emerging zero-carbon vehicle options, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
(PHEVs), is also discussed.
Key Words: alternative fuel, CO
2
emissions, hydrogen transition, transition
function, transportation energy
Received 30 May 2006; revised 14 April 2009; accepted 17 November 2009.
Address correspondence to Francis M. Vanek, School of Civil and Environmental Engineer-
ing, 220 Hollister Hall, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-3501. E-mail: fmv3@cornell.edu
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 5:7190, 2011
Copyright # Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 1556-8318 print=1556-8334 online
DOI: 10.1080/15568310903511884
71
INTRODUCTION
Governments of many countries, as well as energy companies and automobile
manufacturers, are currently undertaking research to develop hydrogen as an
alternative fuel for motorized vehicles. Such a transition would have very broad
implications for the transportation system, requiring an assessment of long-term
demand, costs and material requirements, and planning of steps in the transition
process. However, the payoff in terms of achieving goals such as a reduction of oil
dependency, eliminating carbon emissions, and eventually finding an energy
source that will replace declining oil reserves, provides a strong motivation.
The vehicle envisioned would solve a number of pressing problems. First, the
fuel cell might provide a more efficient means of converting fuel into motion than
the currently dominant internal combustion engine. Also, the use of hydrogen
would eliminate emissions from the tailpipe of the vehicle. Lastly, the hydrogen
used in the fuel cell could be generated using a wide range of energy sources,
including renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power, which would elim-
inate air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions not only at the tailpipe but also at
the central source of hydrogen creation. It should be noted, however, that not all
problems associated with motorized personal vehicles are solved by a transition to
hydrogen (e.g., effects of vehicles on the livability of communities, on congestion
in roadways, and on personal health due to the sedentary lifestyle they may foster).
We do not address these latter challenges in this paper. Also, hydrogen is by no
means the only solution to the energy=climate challenge; biofuel and especially
electric vehicle technologies are rapidly advancing (see the discussion in
Section 5).
The goal of this paper is two-fold: first, to introduce a model that estimates glo-
bal demand for automotive transportation for the 21st century, and second, to esti-
mate the resulting demand for fossil fuel energy or hydrogen, as well as carbon
emissions, depending on variation in rates of improvement in vehicle efficiency,
adoption of hydrogen fuel cell technology, and adoption of renewable energy
sources. The model is applied to multiple scenario analyses, in order to bracket
the range of likely outcomes, rather than attempting to create a single most-likely
scenario. This approach is chosen due to the difficulty of pinpointing a single
pathway that is more likely than other competing pathways, given the uncertainties
surrounding the timing and quantitative characteristics of the future hydrogen
fuel system.
Four fundamental assumptions underlie the model and its application in the
context of the global hydrogen transition. First, it is assumed that the technical
hurdles facing the introduction of fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), principally the devel-
opment of low-cost, durable fuel cells and an adequate means of on-board storage
of hydrogen, will be overcome. The timing of the resolution of these technical
obstacles is itself a variable in the model. Secondly, the model considers only the
impact of transition pathways chosen exogenously, and does not take into account
any feedback effects, such as the effect of market energy prices on demand for
hydrogen vehicles as the transition unfolds. Thirdly, while timing of transitions
can be set exogenously in the model, policy levers such as tax policies, sales quotas,
or efficiency standards are not incorporated explicitly. Lastly, the worldwide
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
72 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
passenger vehicle mode is considered in isolation, and the effect of trends in other
modes, such as air travel, on demand for passenger car travel is not considered.
BACKGROUND
The interest in hydrogen as a transportation fuel has generated a very extensive
body of literature. We divide this literature into two types: those that are not tied to
the implementation of hydrogen in a specific geographic region (e.g., Jensen and
Ross 2000; Lovins and Williams 2001; Farrell et al. 2003; Elam et al. 2003), and
those that propose implementation of hydrogen in a specific urban area, region,
nation, or multinational region. The latter are of particular interest to our work.
Regions considered in this body of literature include Southern California (Ogden
1999), Japan (Shirota et al. 1998), Libya (El-Osta and Zeghlam 2000), and New
Zealand (Kruger et al. 2003), among many others. In addition, there are numer-
ous papers that consider hydrogen in the context of a broad range of alternative
fuels and technologies available for passenger vehicles, such as that of Stork
et al. (1999) that considers the capital cost of fuel production and distribution
infrastructure for alternative fuels, or that of Wang (1999), that uses the GREET
(Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) model
to estimate life cycle greenhouse gas emissions impact of a range of alternative
fuels. Lastly, although much of the interest in hydrogen is recent, certain sources
were assessing the potential need for hydrogen much earlier, such as Day, who in
1972 studied the need for petroleum substitutes, including hydrogen, for the case
of transportation energy supplies for the United Kingdom.
A tacit assumption of the region-specific implementation studies is that each
introduction of hydrogen can be implemented independent of the others, without
concern about finite worldwide supplies of resources, such as energy resources
used to make the hydrogen required by the system. We therefore searched the
literature for work that encompassed the worldwide hydrogen transition, similar
to the work of Schaefer (1998), which considers worldwide motorization trends
by various modes (bus, rail, automobile, and air). This work was, according to
our literature review, the first one to capture world motorization in a single study
by aggregating them into multinational and continental, as opposed to other ear-
lier studies that look at a national or multi-national level, but do not include all
parts of the world transportation system. Another study of interest is the Global
Energy Transition model developed by Grahn et al. (2003), which uses a linear pro-
gramming model to recommend a least cost energy pathway, including regional
allocation of investment. Another study is the World Business Council for Sustain-
able Developments Mobility 2030 report, which considers worldwide mobility
requirements for the period 20302050 and their effect on factors such as total
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (World Business Council 2005). The WBCSD
Mobility 2030 study considers the impact of hydrogen vehicles at a very aggregate
level, so our study adds more quantitative detail to the scope and timing of a poten-
tial transition to hydrogen. Other sources consider only general issues at the world
level, such as the criteria for a successful hydrogen development strategy (Serfass
et al. 1991), or the potential role of the worlds nuclear energy industry in gener-
ating carbon-free hydrogen (Walters et al. 2003).
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International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 73
In projecting the growth of demand for transportation energy including
hydrogen in the 21st century, we take as a starting point Schaefers use of a limited
number of world regions as the basis for measurement, and the use of the relation-
ship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and demand for motorized mobility
as a means of projecting growth. Unlike Schaefers work, our primary focus is on
looking forward into the 21st century, as opposed to modeling historical growth of
motorization in the 20th century, although we do calibrate our model using
historical trends.
Naturally, in order to capture both the geographic breadth and long time per-
iod in a single study, some loss of detail, of the kind found in the regional and
national studies mentioned above, will occur. Our world study of hydrogen
demand in the current century should not be seen as a replacement for such
regional studies but rather as a complement. In the discussion we consider how
these two strands of research might be integrated in the future.
MODEL
The objective of WHTM (World Hydrogen Transition Model) is a first pass
assessment of the general outcomes of a possible transition from conventional
vehicles to fuel cell vehicles, from point of launch of the technology to the point
where carbon-free hydrogen becomes the dominant fuel for passenger vehicles.
Due to limitations on the data source for transportation activity by country, only
passenger cars are included in the scope, while light trucks, including pickups,
sport utility vehicles, and small vans, are outside the scope. The term carbon-free
hydrogen includes a range of possible energy sources that are either renewable or
not resource-constrained for the foreseeable future, including wind or solar energy
converted to hydrogen, nuclear energy, bio-energy, or coal-based generation of
hydrogen with sequestration of the carbon emitted as a byproduct. Based on his-
torical data and input parameters the model is used to project relevant outcomes
of a hydrogen transition such as the demand of different fuels for passenger vehi-
cles and the carbon emissions of passenger vehicles till the end of the 21st century.
Furthermore, the model supports the study of the impact that start time and tran-
sition duration can have on the outcome of the transition to hydrogen.
Choice of Modeling Framework
The modeling framework chosen for WHTM is one that is simpler to operatio-
nalize than detailed technology cost-minimizing models such as MARKAL or
models that capture the relationship between technology, energy cost, level of
economic growth, and demand, as in a computable general equilibrium model
(CGE model); these differences are discussed here. A fundamental starting point
for WHTM is the predictions for world population growth for the 21st century
from the United Nations, and the prospect of steady, gradual economic growth
throughout the century. The user can then explore the effect of the resulting
continued growth in demand for passenger vehicle travel and the influx of new
technology on energy demand and CO
2
emissions. For example, the model allows
the user to estimate the total energy required from fossil fuel resources from the
present to the time that FCVs with carbon-free hydrogen fully penetrate the
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
74 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
worlds transportation system. The model does not incorporate policy levers
directly, such as economic support for the cost of FCVs or hydrogen. However,
the user can observe the impact of starting and completing the transition to
non-fossil hydrogen sooner rather than later on total fossil energy requirements
and total CO
2
emissions.
The shape of transitions from exiting to entering technologies (e.g., from inter-
nal combustion engine vehicles, or ICEVs, to FCVs) is the s-curve that is character-
istic of technology transitions in many economic sectors (e.g., penetration of cell
phone use, internet access, etc.). The s-curve can be fitted using a triangle func-
tion, logistics function, or other function, and has been used in a number of
instances to model the effect of technology transitions on energy demand scenar-
ios. Examples include examination of alternative pathways for energy in Germany
(Buch 1984), the development of energy and environmental scenarios for
Australia (Marquand and McVeigh 1995), predicting market penetration for fuel
cells (Hollinshead et al. 2005), and forecasting the growth of the solar-hydrogen
economy (Reynolds 2007); a paper on a related topic (Shafizadeh et al. 2007) con-
siders the penetration of telecommuting into an urban work trip travel market as a
means toward reducing energy consumption and achieving other social benefits.
In any case, the s-curve allows a more realistic examination of the effect of a
new technology on energy consumption and efficiency over time, since it captures
the progression of stages (i.e., early adopter, fast follower, rapid growth,
tapering off) that is characteristic of many technology transitions.
Other modeling frameworks such as MARKAL or CGE require more specialized
training and effort to operationalize, but also more realistically and accurately cap-
ture real-world behavior into the future as technologies compete in the market-
place for share of energy services, and as the cost of energy purchases interact
with demand to affect both society and rate of greenhouse gas emissions. For
example, MARKAL permits a more realistic prediction of the technological path-
way since the model uses a range of technologies and prices and inputs and
chooses the combination of technologies that will meet future CO
2
abatement
requirements at minimum cost. This framework has been widely used for model-
ing future energy scenarios, such as in estimating the cost of reducing emissions
for China (Chen 2005) or of evaluating renewable energy supply alternatives for
Italy (Contaldi et al. 2007). CGE, in turn, models the way in which an economy
may respond to changes in policy or technological performance, and by extension
the resulting CO
2
emissions. For example, Turton incorporates CGE into ECLIPSE
(Energy and Climate Policy Scenario Evaluation), a modeling framework that cap-
tures the interaction between technologies used to meet energy demand and
macroeconomic output to predict anthropogenic impact on climate (Turton
2008). This framework can be used to predict over a 21st century time frame
the impact on global GDP of various CO
2
stabilization targets in parts per million
concentration in the atmosphere.
In summary, the WHTM modeling framework is chosen so that it will allow engi-
neers from a wide range of disciplines to develop with widely understood math-
ematical techniques a model that can predict energy demand and CO
2
emissions for a range of plausible technological pathways (energy efficiency by
year, growth in energy demand, rate of penetration of new technologies). The data
A Global Assessment of Hydrogen
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 75
gathering step to quantify model parameters requires a time commitment (as it
would for MARKAL or CGE), but operationalizing the formuli needed to develop
the model is straightforward and does not require access to proprietary software or
additional training beyond the competency of the typical engineer. In particular,
the modeler need not have a background in computation of economic equilibria
necessary for CGE. The outputs allow the modeler to bracket the range of plaus-
ible outcomes for a technology transition such as that of the FCV. More accurate
forecasting requires the introduction of economic tools embedded in MARKAL
or CGE.
Model Formulation
At the most general level, the model predicts energy consumption and CO
2
emissions in a given year, by adding up predictions for each of the six continental
regions. Let P
FCV
be the proportion of the total vehicle fleet that is fuel cell vehicle
in that year, i.e., 0 P
FCV
1, and VKT be the Vehicle Kilometers Traveled per year.
Then total energy E is given by
E
X
cont
P
FCV
VKT
cont
Eff
FCV
1 P
FCV
VKT
cont
Eff
ICE
1
Here Eff stands for the efficiency value (energy required per unit of VKT), and
the subscript cont stands for the continent for which the VKT value is being cal-
culated. The total CO
2
emissions are calculated in a similar way. Let P
CF
be the
proportion of the total FCV fleet that receives its energy from a carbon-free
energy resource. Here we include only the emissions during the end use stage
of the life cycle either from the generation of hydrogen or from the vehicles
themselves during use. We do not include CO
2
emissions from the construction
of the infrastructure needed to deliver the carbon-free energy. It is assumed that
FCVs using carbon-free energy have no end use emissions of carbon, while FCVs
that use hydrogen generated from fossil fuels are responsible for whatever CO
2
emissions are required to generate the hydrogen at the plant. Total emissions
TotCO2 are then
TotCO2
X
cont
P
FCV
1 P
CF
VKT
cont
CO2
FCV
1 P
FCV
VKT
cont
CO2
ICE
2
Use of Linear Regression and Triangle Function in the Model
The model principally uses two mathematical tools, namely linear regression to
extrapolate inputs such as the growth in GDP through the 21st century, and the
triangle function to create the s-curves that forecast the penetration of new tech-
nologies, such as the influx of FCVs or of non-fossil hydrogen. Turning first to lin-
ear regression, this approach provides a first-pass method for the projections of the
average GDP per capita and VKT up till the end of the 21st century. Here VKT is
assumed to be a linear function dependent on GDP, namely:
VKT
cont
a
v
cont
GDP
cont
b
v
cont
3
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76 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
The values of the linear intercept a
v
cont
and the slope b
v
cont
are calculated by linear
regression based on historical values for the period 19602000. (Values for each
continent are given in the Appendix.) Thereafter, projections of VKT for future
years are computed based on those coefficients and the estimated GDP of a year.
Total GDP of a continent (GDP
cont
) is calculated in terms of its population
(Pop
cont
) and the average GDP per capita (GDP=Cap
cont
) at each point in time or
GDP
cont
t GDP=Cap
cont
t Pop
Cont
t 4
The GDP per capita is assumed to follow a linear trend in time for each conti-
nent:
GDP=Cap
cont
t a
p
cont
b
p
cont
t 5
where a
p
cont
is the value at the beginning of the time horizon (year 1960), b
p
cont
is the
rate of change in GDP=capita per year, and t is the number of years elapsed since
1960. The historical trend in GDP=capita for the period 19602000 is used to esti-
mate the value of b
p
cont
.
The second function is the use of a triangle function to generate the s-shaped
curve or s-curve, which has the following form. Let a and b be the start and
end times of the transition to be modeled, in years. The formula for the triangle
function is:
pt 2
t a
b a

2
if a t
a b
2
pt 1 2
b t
b a

2
if
a b
2
t b
6
For times less than a, p(t) 0, and for times greater than b, p(t) 1. In
WHTM, the starting year and duration in years of a transition is input by the
user, with the end year b being the sum of the start year and the duration.
The characteristics of the triangle function are that it starts slowly, exhibits peak
rate of change half way through the transition, and then tapers off as full pen-
etration is approached. This shape of transition is typical of many new technol-
ogies displacing an incumbent technology (e.g., touch-tone phones replacing
rotary dial telephones; further discussion of the triangle function can be found
in, e.g., Law and Kelton 1991).
To illustrate the use of the triangle function, suppose a 2030 and b 2070, i.e.,
a transition that starts in the year 2030 and takes 40 years. To consider the initially
slow rate of growth of the transition, consider that in the year 2040, p(2040)
0.125, but after that the rate of change accelerates so that p(2050) 0.5,
p(2060) 0.875, and so on.
The role of linear regression and the triangle function are shown in the overall
flowchart of the WHTM, shown in Figure 1. In the flowchart, the shaded variables
and parameters have historical values until 2000 and are projected thereafter. Out-
puts from the model include the total energy required for the world passenger
vehicle fleet, the total hydrogen consumed, and the total CO2 emissions. The icon
A Global Assessment of Hydrogen
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 77
for the mathematical curve figure in the flowchart shows where the triangle
function is applied.
Data and Modeling Issues
Data in the model were obtained as follows. Historical Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) per capita data for 207 world countries for the years 1960 to 2000 were
obtained from a data set published by the World Bank; these values were then
extrapolated forward to project GDP=capita values through 2090. Similarly, popu-
lation forecasts were obtained from the World Bank Indicators database through
2090. Vehicle-kilometer data by country were obtained from the International
Road Federation for the period 19602000; these were then extrapolated forward
to 2090 using equations 35. Lastly, parameters for energy efficiency of vehicles
were calculated using data from the World Energy Council. Based on the starting
average fuel consumption per VKT, three levels of energy efficiency performance
for the period 20002100 were defined in the data structure to account for differ-
ent levels of technical development during this time period. Thus the average
efficiency of vehicles was allowed to change in order to test the effect of changing
background energy consumption against which to compare the influx of FCVs into
the worlds auto market.
All data for individual countries were entered into a database in order to facili-
tate analysis of region-wide trends in the indicators of interest. At the most basic
level, data are organized by countries on a per year basis. These countries are then
Figure 1. Flowchart of WHTM model.
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
78 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
grouped in several ways: by regions, continents and development status, to allow
flexible aggregation, filtering and classification.
Use of the data as outlined to cover both a very long period of time into the
future and a large segment of the transportation sector (worldwide private
automobile use) raises some important modeling issues that are worthy of further
discussion. Three such issues are explored in the remainder of this section.
Linear Correlation Between GDP and VKT
In this study it is assumed that for each of the worlds continents the total VKT
depend on the total GDP for that continent and that the relationship can be
expressed by a linear model. This approach underlines the different elasticity
between total GDP and VKT by passenger vehicles for different continents (i.e.,
for a unit of growth of total GDP, VKT will grow faster in some continents than
in others). The differences in elasticity between continents are believed to result
from differences in fuel taxing policies, level of transportation infrastructure,
and other factors. Due to high taxation of fuel in Europe increase in GDP will
buy less volume of fuel than in USA where taxes are lower. In high income conti-
nents such as USA and Europe the developed urban and suburban highway infra-
structure and high number of passenger vehicles per capita makes driving a more
attractive mode of increased travelling than in continents with limited infrastruc-
ture and=or car ownership, where other modes of traveling might be preferred.
Figure 2 shows the strong linear correlation between GDP and VKT for the group
of continents responsible for 90% of the total world VKT (Asia, Europe, North
America). This result concurs with that of Schaefer (1998), who found a linear
relationship between per capita income and per capita mobility for the period
1960 to 1990. During the period of time the data covers, the definition of country
boundaries and type of transportation mode of individual countries have changed
Figure 2. Representative output of GDP=VKT figures for Asia, Europe, and
North America. Note: Corresponding values of a
v
cont
and b
v
cont
for linear
curve approximation for each of six world continent regions are
provided in the Appendix.
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International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 79
in some cases, resulting in gaps in the graphs. With the exception of these gaps,
the linear relationship holds for most of the curves for the three continents. For
the remaining continents not shown in Figure 2 (South America, Africa, Oceania),
it was found that the relationship was not as strong, although a linear relationship
still held loosely.
Evaluation of Total GDP and GDP Per Capita by Continent
During the study a search was performed for independent future prediction
of GDP of different countries of world through the 21 century. None was
found, so the estimate of the future GDP was derived by other means, namely
the linear extrapolation described above in eqs. 4 and 5. In general, the data
show that GDP increase steadily with population for the 6 continental regions
in the model for the period 19602000. Less affluent continents have a smal-
ler increase in GDP per unit of population increase. Typical values of (a
p
cont
,
b
p
cont
) range from ($13,473, $380=year) for a high GDP per capita continent
such as North America, to ($270, $47=year) for a low GDP per capita conti-
nent such as Asia.
Although the linear relationship between GDP and VKT for 19602000 was
strong as shown in the previous section, there are limitations to using a linear
projection of GDP or VKT for an extended period such as 20002090. For
example, because of the smaller value of b
p
cont
for poorer continents, the gap
between rich and poor nations in terms of GDP=capita widens throughout
the century. Here we are limited by the lack of non-linear projections of
GDP and VKT growth. We discuss the implications further at the end of the
paper, including what might be expected from a non-linear treatment of these
inputs, e.g., accelerating motorization in Asia, saturation of VKT growth in
North America, etc.
Efficiency Improvement over Time for Vehicle Technology
Three vehicle efficiencies profiles were defined in the data structure and
assigned to countries depending on their development status (Low, Medium,
and High) to simulate how efficiency might evolve in different countries
depending on their development status. Also, since the current (year 2000)
efficiency of a given continent is not known, three possible values are esti-
mated (base, optimistic, and pessimistic) based on the likely mix of vehicles
in the continent, which in turn depends on GDP per capita. It is assumed
that all efficiency profiles will eventually saturate, i.e., it will no longer be
possible to improve the efficiency of the baseline internal combustion engine
(ICE) technology. For example, in the case of medium developed countries
such as Mexico or Thailand, the base case fuel consumption level is
15 liter=100 km in the year 1960, but the saturation level is 6 l=100 km for
baseline case around the year 2050. Baseline efficiency values used in the
model range from 12 liter=100 km (high efficiency) to 17 liter=100 km (low
efficiency) in 1960, and from 6 liter=100 km (high efficiency) to 8 liter=
100 km (low efficiency) in 2050. (See the Appendix for a complete table of
values for the years 19602100.)
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
80 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
APPLICATION
Definition of Scenarios Used
The WHTM was used to study several transition scenarios and outputs from sce-
narios were compared to create a range of forecasts for the variables of interest
(e.g., total energy consumption, total CO
2
emissions, etc.). Scenarios were created
based on two inputs: the starting year and the length of the FCV or carbon-free
transition. For example, the introduction of the FCV might occur in the range
2010 to 2050, and the transition might require between 40 and 80 years, so the
range of possible end dates is from 2050 at the earliest to 2130 at the latest. In
addition, the fuel efficiency profile of the existing fleet is allowed to vary. Changing
these inputs allows the user to create scenarios that are optimistic or pessimistic in
terms of total energy consumption and CO
2
emissions.
Many, though not all, authors agree that FCVs are expected to have lower overall
fuel consumption intensity than ICE vehicles, once they penetrate the market. The
intensity ratio Int
FCV
=Int
ICE
is defined as an input parameter in the WHTM, where
the intensity value Int is the amount of energy in the fuel (hydrogen or gasoline)
consumed per unit of VKT delivered. For this application Int
FCV
=Int
ICE
was set to
0.8 in all cases, a value we calculated based on results in Marquand and McVeigh
(1995). Thus for any given year, the energy consumption per kilometer of the FCV
will be 80%of the value for ICE vehicles in that year. The fuel consumption in liters
per 100 km, the energy content per liter of fuel (a value of 32 Megajoules, or MJ,
per liter is used; 1 MJ 1 10
6
joule), and the intensity ratio are used to calculate
the energy requirement per 100 km for FCVs.
Energy Demand for Passenger Vehicles
Energy demand was analyzed for the nine different scenarios in order to
bracket the range of possible demand values for energy, in terms of energy con-
tent of the combination of gasoline (or gasoline equivalent) or hydrogen in
each year. Gasoline equivalents include diesel and also any alternative fuel that
might be used to augment the supply of gasoline and increase the total energy
available to vehicles prior to the hydrogen transition, including options such as
CNG, ethanol, gasoline derived from shale oil, etc. For example, Figure 3a
shows the base case scenario where FCVs are introduced in 2030 and the tran-
sition takes place over 60 years, and hydrogen from carbon-free energy is intro-
duced in 2050 and requires 60 years to fully penetrate the market. Thus total
energy consumption grows more slowly after 2030 as the more efficient FCVs
penetrate the market and eventually reaches a plateau around 2050 as FCV pen-
etration accelerates. By 2075 efficiency improvements due to FCVs replacing
ICEVs are largely complete, so total energy consumption begins to grow again
in line with growing global VKT. This continued growth is, however, of lesser
concern, since by this time much of the energy for passenger vehicles is
carbon-free, and by 2090 all but 10 Exajoules (EJ) is carbon-free. (One EJ
equals 10
18
Joules; for comparison, the total energy consumption of the United
States at present is on the order of 100 EJ.) Figure 3b, by contrast, shows the
Pessimistic Scenario, in which FCVs do not enter until 2050 and carbon-free
hydrogen does not enter until 2080.
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International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 81
By repeatedly running the WHTM model and varying the inputs from Table 1,
we establish a range of possible outcomes for a number of indicators of interest,
including peak gasoline energy consumption, peak fossil-fuel derived hydrogen
requirement, and carbon-free hydrogen energy requirement in 2090, as shown
in Table 1. We project that, under the range of likely scenarios, energy consump-
tion for the worldwide fleet of passenger vehicles will increase from 25 EJ in 2000
to a peak of between 27 and 42 EJ, and that the peak requirement for hydrogen
derived from fossil fuels prior to the introduction of carbon free hydrogen would
be between 13 and 32 EJ. Also, by 2090 the world hydrogen production system
would need to supply between 25 and 33 EJ of carbon-free hydrogen in order to
meet the demand without emitting significant amounts of CO
2
in the case of
robust FCV penetration, or as little as 2 EJ in the case that FCVs make only minor
penetration into the world vehicle market.
Figure 3. Projected energy consumption 19602090 in a) Base Case and b)
Pessimistic Case from WHTM model.
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
82 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
To put these energy requirement values into some context, we compare them to
projected total electric power requirements for the year 2050 from Hoffert et al.
(2002). This source puts the requirement for total worldwide power generating
capacity required to meet demand at 15 to 30 TW, based on projected growth in
economic activity and electrical efficiency. Taking into account typical utilization
rates for power plants, this amount of generating capacity might deliver the elec-
trical equivalent of 140 to 280 EJ of power. Thus the amount of energy required for
passenger cars in the WHTM model is large compared to todays value, but small
compared to the requirements for one of the largest future energy requirements,
namely sustainable electricity.
Comparison of Energy Demand to Total Petroleum Output, and Analysis
of CO
2
Emissions
We also compared the projection of gasoline or gasoline-equivalent energy
demand to projected levels of future petroleum output based on estimates of
remaining reserves. In this analysis the Hubbert curve as published in Kreith
(2002) for the case of 3 trillion barrels of ultimately recoverable oil were used to
estimate the fraction of total world petroleum output consumed by the fleet of
passenger vehicles under study in WHTM. It was found that in the most pessimistic
case, with a late initiation of the transition to FCVs, output of oil peaks before the
influx of FCVs, so that this ratio continues to grow even though petroleum con-
sumed by passenger vehicles declines as FCVs replace ICEVs. Ultimately, it reaches
values ranging from 60 to 100% in the period 20502080, depending on the aver-
age efficiency ultimately attained by the worlds ICEV fleet. Nevertheless, this pessi-
mistic scenario serves as a warning. Given competing demands for oil by light
trucks, freight transportation, commercial passenger transportation, and home
heating, allocating such a high percentage of oil output to passenger cars is not
feasible, so either a large new source of gasoline equivalent fuel would be needed,
or the projected growth would be stifled due to lack of sufficient energy.
We also analyzed the general shape of the CO
2
emissions curve produced in
WHTM throughout the 21st century and compared it to the range of stabilization
Table 1. Range of values for scenarios and estimated energy values from WHTM
model.
Optimistic Base Pessimistic
FCV transition Begin year 2010 2030 2050
Duration (years) 40 60 80
CO
2
-free energy transition Begin year 2020 2050 2080
Duration (years) 40 60 80
Peak value for gasoline equiv. Amount [EJ] 27 41 42
Year Year 2015 2055 2075
Peak value for fossil hydrogen Amount [EJ] 13 23
a
Year Year 2035 2075
a
CO
2
-free hydrogen value, 2090 Amount [EJ] 25 33 2
a
The peak value for fossil-fuel generated hydrogen occurs after 2090.
A Global Assessment of Hydrogen
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 83
pathways published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
These stabilization pathways relate the year-by-year total global CO
2
emissions to
the eventual atmospheric concentration at which CO
2
stabilizes, assuming that
greenhouse gas reduction policies will cause these emissions to eventual peak
and then decline to a sustainable level (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change 2001). Results from WHTM are shown in Figure 4, indexed to the 2000
value equal to 1. These results suggest that CO
2
emissions will continue to rise
from the current level of 1.9 Gigatonnes to 2.1 3.8 Gt between 2020 and 2070,
and then decline thereafter as hydrogen from fossil fuels is phased out. (For com-
parison, total world CO
2
emissions from energy use were 24.3 Gt in 2001.) Taking
the Base case pathway shown, both its timing and peak value are consistent with a
stabilization pathway at 550 ppm to 650 ppm atmospheric concentration of CO
2
from the IPCC. This comparison suggests that it would be feasible for the hydro-
gen transition in passenger vehicles to make a proportional contribution to cli-
mate stabilization at 550650 ppm, assuming that pessimistic values for the
arrival and length of the transition to FCVs and carbon-free hydrogen do not
transpire.
The pathway projected by the WBCSD for carbon emissions from all highway
vehicles due to a realistic phase-in of carbon-free hydrogen FCVs is also shown
in Figure 4, starting with a value of 4.8 Gt in the year 2000. CO
2
emissions from
passenger cars captured in WHTM are approximately 40% of the value for all vehi-
cles measured by WBCSD, which is consistent with passenger cars contribution to
total CO
2
emissions from highway vehicles in many industrialized countries. The
WBCSD curve follows a pathway approximately between the Optimistic and Base
case scenario from WHTM. WBCSD did not publish projected emissions values
after 2050, however if the trend shown continued, most CO
2
emissions would be
eliminated by the end of the century.
Figure 4. CO
2
emissions from personal vehicles projected by the WHTM model,
20002090. Note: for WBCSD, 2000 value is 4.8 Gigatonnes; for all
other scenarios, 2000 value is 1.9 Gigatonnes.
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
84 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
DISCUSSION
Issues Raised
In the interest of brevity, we considered only a scenario of sustained, moderate
economic growth throughout the entire 21st century. This growth drives a contin-
ued increase in the demand for motorized mobility, in both industrialized and
industrializing countries, and the resulting upward pressure on transportation
energy demand. Improving average vehicle efficiency and the eventual introduc-
tion of the FCV are able to slow the growth in energy demand, while transition
to a non-fossil energy source for the hydrogen will eventually lead to the phasing
out of the use energy from petroleum and other fossil fuels in vehicles.
Earlier we noted that the assumption of linear growth in GDP=capita implies a
growing gap between the richest countries such as those of North America or Eur-
ope and industrializing countries such as China or India. A very likely scenario that
might occur in the 21st century is that a number of these industrializing countries
will continue the rapid growth in GDP=capita that they are currently experiencing.
Such countries would therefore close much of the gap between their own level and
the average of the rich countries (i.e., North America, Europe, Japan), before their
economies mature and GDP=capita growth assumes a more modest path. We have
deferred such an analysis to future work, for lack of accessible data on such a path-
way. However, it might be observed that since the application of WHTM presented
here probably overstates VKT growth in the richest countries and understates this
growth in industrializing countries, especially in Asia, the two will tend to cancel
each other out so that the effect on the accuracy of projections of overall energy
demand levels is diminished.
Turning next to the hydrogen technology, we have in the results presented
here assumed that the FCV will begin to penetrate the market in the
20102050 period as a result of sustained research already underway. However,
this pathway may not materialize. While there have been recent increases in
crude oil costs to 2008 and a drop during 200809, if costs were to remain
low, we might not yet reach a crisis point where government and industry would
be inspired to greatly accelerate R&D efforts in order to stave off major disrup-
tion to our transportation system. Also, another technology might surpass FCVs
(for example, battery-powered electric vehicles, or EVs, that run entirely on elec-
tric recharging obtained from the electric grid, or plug-in hybrid electric vehi-
cles, or PHEVs, that can run on either electric charge or liquid biofuels,
depending on availability) and become the technology of choice to replace
the gasoline=diesel ICE engine. During the period 20072009, rapid advances
in EV and PHEV technology have made it increasingly likely that the next gen-
eration of low- or zero-carbon vehicles will be some mixture of EVs and PHEVs.
FCVs might emerge only after EV=PHEVs, or they might not ever emerge as a
major technology to displace EV=PHEV if the latter satisfy all the requirements
for sustainable transportation energy. In such a case the backstop technology
might be different, although the shape of the curve, from ICE to new technology
to non-fossil energy source, might remain largely the same.
It is also possible that major disruptions in economic growth during the
course of the 21st century might change the trajectory of growth in worldwide
A Global Assessment of Hydrogen
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 85
VKT. While difficult to predict in timing or magnitude, there are a wide range
of factors that might lead to such a consequence, including widespread polit-
ical instability or negative consequences of environmental degradation.
Indeed, a shortage of sufficient energy resources for passenger transportation
might itself become a reason for a slowdown in economic growth, just as slow-
ing economic growth might reduce the demand for mobility and transpor-
tation energy. However, since any of these situations would result in reduced
pressure on the delivery of gasoline and=or hydrogen, we can think of the
scenario chosen for the paper as an upper bound relative to these less energy
intensive scenarios.
Another unanswered question is the source of fossil energy for the peak period
of energy use prior to the major market penetration of the FCV technology, typi-
cally in the 20202080 time period, depending on the scenario. WHTM projects
that during this time period fossil energy consumption for passenger vehicles
may exceed current levels by 20% to 100%. At the same time, there is current con-
cern that the rate of oil production is currently at or near its limit, and that it will
be impossible to significantly increase output in the future. We do not attempt
here to resolve how the additional energy resources might be found. However,
one possibility is that the demand for increased transportation energy supplies will
spur the development of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil resources.
Alternatively, tight oil supplies may bring about a rapid uptake of hybrid electric
drivetrain technology, which could significantly reduce energy required per VKT
traveled. Failing that, insufficient energy supplies might become a limiting factor
that would modify the shape of the energy consumption curve in the 20102050
period.
Lastly, the well-to-wheel analysis of energy consumption in each transition scen-
ario assumes a fairly efficient conversion of raw energy resource into vehicle fuel
for both the ICEV and the fossil fuel FCV phase (i.e., crude oil to gasoline, hydro-
gen from steam reforming of natural gas), which in turn dictates the path of CO
2
emissions. The energy stock available will, however, dictate the actual WTW
efficiency and CO
2
emissions, so that if energy providers are forced to use alterna-
tive fossil fuels (e.g., gasified coal for ICEVs or coal-generated hydrogen) before
the introduction of carbon-free hydrogen, the ultimate peaking of CO
2
emissions
levels from passenger vehicles could be significantly higher than the outputs from
the WHTM application currently suggest. Also, we have not considered embodied
CO
2
emissions from the construction of a network of carbon-free hydrogen gener-
ation facilities (wind or solar power stations, additional nuclear energy plants, etc).
CO
2
emissions from this construction could be avoided if these facilities were built
using carbon-free energy, but if not, a substantial volume of CO
2
emissions would
be added to the model output.
Future Extensions of the Model
With additional data gathering and modeling resources, new elements could be
incorporated into WHTM that would add detail to the interaction between
economic growth, vehicle travel, and energy consumption. First, the economic
modeling could be made more sophisticated. In our current work we use the
correlation between GDP and VKT, and also tabulate order of magnitude values
A. F. Ingvarsson et al.
86 International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011
of infrastructure and energy costs for the hydrogen transition. However, we might
also develop the cause-and-effect relationship between rising petroleum costs and
the economic triggers for launching hydrogen vehicles in order to more accurately
predict the starting point and duration of the transition.
The model might also in the future incorporate an infrastructure component
that tracks the growth of the worldwide hydrogen production and distribution net-
work in parallel with the influx of FCVs. Similarly, for the non-fossil energy influx
phase, the specific technologies used to produce carbon-free hydrogen could be
incorporated into the model. These elements are already developed in some of
the regional case study papers mentioned in the literature review above. In this
way, modeling tools first applied at a regional level can be later applied at the
global level.
CONCLUSION
In this paper we present a World Hydrogen Transition Model (WHTM) that
extrapolates worldwide economic growth out for the 21st century in order to esti-
mate global demand for passenger vehicle VKT, and then calculates energy
requirements for different FCV and carbon-free fossil energy transition scenarios.
From scenario analysis using the model, two findings emerge. First, continued
worldwide economic growth will lead to significant increases in demand for
energy, assuming supplies can be found, under any combination of efficiency
improvement in ICE vehicles and timing of influx of hydrogen vehicles that we
deem to be plausible. Second, the success of the hydrogen-powered FCV, and
the carbon-free energy sources that might support it, will have a big impact on
whether CO
2
emissions from passenger cars are significantly higher or lower than
their current level by the end of the century. If both parts of the transition are suc-
cessful, most or all of the hydrogen might be produced carbon-free by 2090, so that
carbon emissions would be reduced compared to their current level, even though
total VKT amounts would have greatly increased thanks to a much higher world
GDP. On the other hand, if FCVs (or some other carbon-free passenger vehicle
alternative) do not succeed in the world market in the 21st century, then total
demand for gasoline, or fossil fuel derived gasoline equivalent, might double com-
pared to its current level. Extensions of the model envisioned for the future
include a detailed economic analysis of the relationship between energy prices
and FCV introduction, and more detailed treatment of the hydrogen delivery
infrastructure and non-fossil energy resources required to supply it.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This research was carried out as part of a Masters thesis project for the Master
of Engineering in Engineering Management Program at Cornell University, with
financial support from a General Motors Educational Grant to the Cornell College
of Engineering. While this support is gratefully acknowledged, the findings in the
paper are solely those of the authors, who are responsible for any and all errors.
A Global Assessment of Hydrogen
International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 5, No. 2, 2011 87
APPENDIX
Select Parameters Used in the WHTM Model
For predicting VKT as a function of GDP for each of the continental regions,
parameters a
v
cont
and b
v
cont
from the following table are used in eq. 3, and for
predicting GDP=capita as a function of time, parameters a
p
cont
and b
p
cont
from the
following table are used in eq. 5, as shown:
GDP/Cap Total VKT
Intercept Slope R
2
Intercept Slope R
2
Variable
a
p
cont
b
p
cont
a
v
cont
b
v
cont
Units [$] [$=year] [million km] [km=$GDP]
Africa 632 0.6 0.137 7043 0.0556 0.512
Asia 943 34.3 0.995 119500 0.0908 0.784
Europe 6171 207 0.996 300545 0.226 0.930
North America 12088 393 0.991 797143 0.2071 0.879
Oceania 11207 58.1 0.167 20757 0.2638 0.808
South America 2556 23.2 0.945 10029 0.0361 0.515
For example, in the case of Europe, at $2 trillion GDP (approximately the value
in 1960), the predicted value is 151 billion VKT, at $8 trillion GDP (approximately
the value around the year 2000), the predicted value is 1.51 trillion VKT, etc. The
fit of this linear approximation for Europe can be compared to the actual values
given in Figure 2.
For the fuel efficiency parameter used in the model, values are given in units of
liters=100 km in the table below, as a function of efficiency class (high, medium, or
low) and scenario (optimistic, baseline, or pessimistic).
Efficiency class Scenario 1960 2003 2020 2050 2100
High Optimistic 11 7.5 5.5 4.5 3.5
High Baseline 12 8 6.5 6 5.5
High Pessimistic 13 8.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
Medium Optimistic 14 9.5 7 5 4
Medium Baseline 15 10 8 6.5 6
Medium Pessimistic 16 10.5 9 8 8
Low Optimistic 16 11.5 9 6.5 5.5
Low Baseline 17 12 10 8 7.5
Low Pessimistic 18 12.5 11 9.5 9.5
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