UNA-GB 2009

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Copenhagen Convention
on Climate Change
UNA-GB Model UN Topic Guide

COMMITTEE DESCRIPTION

Climate change is widely recognized today as one of mankinds greatest challenges in the 21
st

Century. As it is not restricted to national boundaries,

fighting it through actions on the
international level is critical.

In June 1992, the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, The Earth Summit,
was held in Rio de Janeiro. In attendance were 172 governments and 2,400 representatives of non-
governmental organizations; together they examined concerns about climate change. As a result of
the Earth Summit, an international environmental treaty was produced: the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).





The treaty has provided an institutional structure to promote further research and to initiate
international action on the issue. The decisive product of this treaty was an action plan known as
the Kyoto Protocol, which is presently in effect and will be until 2012.

Although the Kyoto Protocol successfully launched the first globally coordinated effort to combat
international climate change, it has also met many criticisms concerning its effectiveness. In
December 2009, member states of the UNFCCC will convene in Copenhagen to settle controversies
already existing in the current system and to construct an improved strategy to tackle climate change
more effectively in the future.





anthropogenic: resulting from human activities
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the
Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant
provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not
threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

UNFCCC, Article 2


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Data confirmed by the IPCC
- Increases in global surface temperature of 33.3F over the past century
- More frequent heat waves and heavy rainfall events
- Warming of the ocean to a depth of 3,000 meters
- Increases in atmospheric water content
- Declines in mountain glaciers, snow cover, and Arctic sea ice
- Global average sea level has increased 1.8 mm per year since 1961 and 3.1 mm since 1933
- An increase in the most intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM



Recently, changes in the Earths climate have begun to have dreadful effects on many aspects of
peoples lives around the globe. Namely, arid areas are becoming drier and damp areas are
encountering excess precipitation. The consequences of these changes will be felt across a wide
range of systems including ecosystems, freshwater supply, food production, settlement, etc. The
impacts will vary regionally; however, they are likely to pose the most severe threat to those already
living in unstable and deprived circumstances.






BACKGROUND TO THE ISSUE

The Science behind Climate Change
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a group that includes hundreds of scientists
and others who are charged with providing objective information about climate change to decision-
makers.
According to the IPCC Working Group I

Fourth Assessment Report, warming of the climate
system is unequivocal and 50% of this warming is very likely due to increases in greenhouse gas
(GHG)

concentrations associated with human activity.
1
It has been argued that the principal reason
for the rising temperature is a century and half of industrialization that has involved burning ever
greater quantities of oil, gasoline, and coal, the cutting of forests, and the practice of certain farming
methods.
2



arid: dry, without rainfall
precipitation: water falling to earth (rain, snow, etc.)
ecosystem: the system of living organisms interacting with one another and their surroundings

IPCC Working Group: There are three Working Groups within the IPCC and each carries out research and studies in
one of the following areas: the scientific aspects of the Earths climate system, the socio-economic impact of climate
change and the potential consequences of suggestions for address climate change
unequivocal: having only a single meaning or interpretation

greenhouse gas: any atmospheric gas that absorbs solar radiation and contributes to the greenhouse effect
industrialization: a process through which society changes from being based on agriculture (farming) to being based on
industry (factories and businesses)
In order to better understand climate change, calculate how much GHG you
produce, go to http://www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/calculator/


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BBC News
4


Many scientists agree that anthropogenic GHG emissions are still growing
despite 15 years of international negotiations under the UNFCCC. Also, while some greenhouse
gases trap heat in the atmosphere, others have a cooling effect; the combined effect is referred to as
the net effect. These scientists assert that the net effect on the Earths energy balance

is a general
warming of the Earth; regardless of GHG such as aerosols that have a cooling effect. The vast
amount and long life of carbon dioxide disturbs the balance in the atmosphere and is not mitigated
by the release of cooling GHG.
3
In addition, releasing more cooling GHG is problematic because
such gases are primarily not man-made.

While a majority of scientists accept the above observations on the climate, a small number of other
scientists remain hesitant to agree. These opponents contend that the IPCC observations lack proof
and some of the data needs to be reexamined. According to their studies, warming of the climate
has been an entirely natural occurrence.






History of Climate Research
4


Early observations of climate change date back to 1896 when
effects of GHG in the Earths atmosphere became visible.
However, further research was only carried out late in the 20
th

century. In the 1960s, the best case computer climate
models estimated that the average global temperature would
rise 35.2 F to 39.2 F by the year 2100
5
; this would most
likely result in increased heat-related deaths, wildfires, storm
effects, rising sea levels, etc. Other evidence found in the
1960s and 70s confirmed that concentrations of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere were increasing.

This discovery prompted first climatologists, then others, to
press for action but it took years for the international
community to respond. The chief reason for delayed action
was interestingly correlated to the very cause of climate
change: the question of development.



emissions: gases that are released from activity


net: the sum total
energy balance: the amount of heat and energy produced and consumed
mitigate: to lessen the strength of
model: a simulation through computer calculations, in a lab, etc.

A simplistic explanation and an equally simplistic solution:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNIlWKbacdA


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Greenhouse Gases and Development
It would not be an exaggeration to state that the developed states of the West are accountable for
the current excess of GHG in the atmosphere. Nevertheless, developing and industrializing
countries such as China and India are emitting vast amounts as well.

As concerns regarding climate change have increased, individuals and governments have started to
ask who should be held responsible for the costs of addressing the problem. Should the prosperous,
developed countries be held responsible or should the current, heavily polluting, developing states
bear the enormous price?

This debate persisted through the drafting of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. The outcome was a set of
common but differentiated responsibilities a system of rigid guidelines of commitments for the
developed countries and series of incentives to promote sustainable economic development in
developing states. This policy took into account the fact that countries do not possess the same
economic and technological capacities.


KYOTO PROTOCOL

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) resulted from the 1992 Earth
Summit. This treaty has directed international discussions about reducing GHG emissions.
Negotiations that took place during 1994 as part of the treaty resulted in an action plan, the Kyoto
Protocol; this plan was intended to make the goals of the treaty become a reality. The Kyoto
Protocol entered into force upon Russian ratification in 2004.

The first commitment period under
the Kyoto Protocol runs from 2008 until 2012.

The Kyoto Protocol establishes legally binding

commitments for the reduction of six greenhouse
gases. These relate mostly to the energy, industrial, agriculture and waste sectors of the 37
developed nations and the European Union; however, there is a general commitment for all other
member states as well.
6


Emission targets
The major difference between the Protocol and the UNFCCC is that while the Convention has
encouraged developed nations to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions, the Protocol commits them to
do so.
7
The Kyoto Protocol establishes specific emission targets for various countries; each
developed state has a specific amount of GHG emission to reduce throughout the commitment
period of the treaty through the mechanisms created by the protocol.




differentiate: to provided different things for different groups or individuals


ratification: formal approval of a treaty or international agreement and the act of putting such oath in action

legally binding: all of the terms and conditions described in a document are mandatory
mechanism: a process to make something happen
Find the emission targets of different countries at http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/3145.php


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Specific mechanisms were put into practice by the Protocol: emissions trading
clean development mechanism and joint implementation. The goals of these mechanisms are to:


Stimulate sustainable development through technology transfer and investment
Help countries with Kyoto commitments to meet their targets by reducing emissions or
removing carbon from the atmosphere in other countries in a cost-effective way
Encourage the private sector and developing countries to contribute to emission
reduction efforts
8



Flexible Mechanisms
Emission Trading
Emission trading is also referred to as carbon trading because CO2 is the primary GHG that is being
traded. Within this so called carbon market, the emission trading mechanism is designed to
provide flexibility to countries that have to meet emission targets.

One type of emissions trading is the sale or purchase of emission units; a country over its targets can
purchase surplus GHG emission units that other countries have to spare.

Another type of emission trading is carbon offsetting. One example of offsetting is reforestation.
As part of the growing process, plants consume carbon dioxide (CO
2
); growing forests are net CO
2

sinks - they generally absorb more CO2 than they give off. Therefore, by planting forests, a country
can reduce its net CO2 because the trees will reabsorb some of the gas produced by human activity.

Clean Development Mechanism


The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows a developed state to earn carbon credits to help
with meeting its emission targets if it carries out or promotes projects in a developing state. These
projects, which are introduced in the form of foreign direct investment, generally include the
construction of environment-friendly energy plants and may include setting up solar panels,
installing energy-efficient boilers, etc.
9


This mechanism is designed to benefit both developed and developing countries; developed states
can carry out their obligations in a flexible and sometimes more economical way, meanwhile also
stimulating sustainable development in developing states.





offset: something that balances out something else


technology transfer: passage of knowledge of or equipment for new technology usually from developed to less
developed states

foreign direct investment (FDI): when individuals or companies in one county invest in another country, usually in a
physical form, e.g. establishing manufacturing sites, power plants, etc.
sustainable development: activities that limit resource use to save for future needs


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Joint Implementation
The Joint Implementation (JI) system is similar to CDM. However, JI projects
are carried out by a developed country in another developed country. Through these projects one
developed country helps another reduce its GHG emissions.

These projects take various forms; one example is the replacement of a coal-fired power plant with a
more energy-efficient cogeneration plant.
10
JI projects help the countries carrying out the projects
to meet their emission targets flexibly and cost-efficiently while host countries benefit from
increased foreign investment and technology transfer.




CHALLENGES OF THE KYOTO PROTOCOL

Criticism of the flexible mechanisms
Although the three mechanisms for reducing emissions have potential, they have not been enough
to achieve the expected outcomes.

Investors argue emission trading carries too much risk. One question that emerges is how long are
the mechanisms going to last? Projects applicable under the Kyoto Protocol require a long time,
and as the protocols expiration date comes closer, investors become increasingly reluctant to
participate in the flexible mechanisms designed under the protocol because they may not gain
enough financial benefit.

Criticism of the emission targets
The emission targets are also often criticized. For instance, critics assert that Russias emmission
reduction targets are too low to help reduce climate change and are consequently meaningless.
Russias targets are relaxed enough for the state to get around its obligations with much action
11
.

Many environmentalists and scientists have also noted that the mechanisms do not necessarily
reduce emissions globally.
12


Participation
The Kyoto Protocol was drafted after a long deliberation; disagreements over development,
reporting, and accountability, and a lack of scientific consensus

made it difficult to come to an
agreement. Also, in the process of establishing the specific terms of the Protocol, emissions by
worlds largest GHG emitters were not fully addressed.

The US, Russia, China and India are accountable for half of todays GHG emissions, but are
practically free of any constraints to reduce their net carbon emissions. The U.S., the largest emitter
of CO
2
, has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol; China and India, as developing nations do not face any
emission targets.



cogeneration plant: combined heat and power plant that emits less wasted heat by applying it to local uses
consensus: agreement amongst all parties


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During the process of drafting the Kyoto Protocol, Argentinas representative
proposed a provision that would have allowed developing countries to voluntarily
adopt emission commitments in the future. This proposal was rejected.
13


Emission Leakage
14



The issue of participation leads to another problem: carbon leakage. Without genuine commitments
to reduce GHG emissions by all countries involved, there is little benefit to the environment.
Developed countries that are not truly interested in reducing emissions may simply move carbon-
intensive operations to developing countries where they are not restricted by emission targets. This
way, developed countries both cut costs, by not changing to greener operations at home, and also
meet their carbon targets with ease.




Case Study: China
China is a member of the UNFCCC and has signed the Kyoto Protocol, but is considered developing
and is not bound by the targets.
The fundamental issue behind Chinas climate change problem is its growing demand for energy, which is
chiefly supplied from coal plants. However, according to the China National Climate Change Programme
Report, Chinas energy intensity went down from 268 to 143 tons of coal equivalent, decreasing by an
average annual rate of 4.1% by 2005 since its membership in the UNFCCC.
15

Allegedly, by following through with its pledges, carrying out economic restructuring, improving energy
efficiency and launching CDM projects, China has been successful in reducing GHG emissions.
Nevertheless, some argue that Chinas commitment to international climate change is not at its full
potential. Chinas commitment to the Kyoto Protocol is tainted by its membership in the Asia Pacific
Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, which conflicts with Kyoto Protocol goals by emphasizing
economic development over definite reduction in GHG. Chinas commitment was further questioned
when its government proposed a plan to erect over 500 new coal-fired power plants
Moreover, the success of CDM projects in China may even be overstated. Taking into account the short
duration of Kyotos operational phase, many professionals predict that wary investors face additional risks
in the future and may become increasingly reluctant to carry out CDM projects in developing countries
such as China.
Carbon leakage is the increase in greenhouse gas emissions in countries without emissions
commitments that arises from reductions in emission-constrained nations.
14

International Panel on Climate Change
A hypothetical example of carbon leakage
In order to reduce GHG emissions, a developed country sets aside a piece of land for
preservation. This preserves a CO
2
sink and also prevents further development in that area
two things that could help prevent carbon increase. However, a different piece of land is
cleared for development instead. Have the intended environmental goals been achieved?


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Next steps
15

A key goal of the UNFCCC meeting in Copenhagen is for diplomats and
representatives around the globe to set up a concrete agenda for the committee to follow on climate
change. In 2012 the first commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol expires. While in
Copenhagen, the committee must reexamine the steps taken thus far to respond to climate change,
to set the agenda for the next interval and to establish a new commitment among nations.

In December 2008 at the Climate Change Conference in Bali, member-states of the UNFCCC
unanimously agreed that efforts to fight climate change needed to move beyond the existing
commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol and adopted the Bali Roadmap, which calls for a long-
term strategy to fight climate change in a forward looking mode.
16
The Bali Action Plan is the
chief ingredient of the Bali Road Map and sets out a new negotiating process with the aim of
completing this by the end of 2009 at the upcoming conference in Copenhagen.
17


The looking forward mode of the Bali Road Map:
urges developed states to commit much more to the climate change regime by cutting as much
as a quarter of their total GHG emissions.
18

recommends that developing states should take a bigger role in fighting climate change by
meeting measurable, reportable and verifiable steps.
19

Negotiations are still taking place on these issues.


POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS

Strengthening the Kyoto Protocol

Regardless of the criticisms of the mechanisms created under the Kyoto Protocol, there is general
agreement that the UNFCCC has successfully raised awareness of the dangers of climate change and
the need to address the issue at the global level. In considering a resolution, delegates should
consider:
Emission targets and mechanism weaknesses
Participation and commitment levels
New evidence from the IPCC and other sources
Market incentives and funding for compliance or adaptation related programs
international registration of actions taken by national governments
recognition and visibility of successful actions




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1
Highlights Of The Fourth IPCC Assessment Report, Yuwei Zhang, UN Chronicle Online Edition
http://www.un.org/Pubs/chronicle/2007/issue2/0207p08.htm
2
International Energy Agency <www.iea.org>.
3
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency <www.epa.gov>.
4
Climate Change, BBC News In Depth
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/default.stm
5
The Greenhouse Effect and the Carbon Cycle
<http://unfccc.int/essential_background/feeling_the_heat/items/2903.php>.
6
Ibid.
7
The Kyoto Protocol <http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php>.
8
Mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol, UNFCCC
http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/mechanisms/items/1673.php
9
Ibid.
10
Ibid.
11
Beyond Kyoto, Roger Sedjo, Resources for the Future: 2004
http://www.rff.org/rff/News/Features/Beyond-Kyoto.cfm
12
Climate Change <http://climatechange.sea.ca/kyoto_protocol.html>.
13
International Institute for Sustainable Development <www.iisd.org>.
14
Trading Kyoto, Glen P. Peters and Edgar G. Hertwich, Nature Reports Climate Change: 2008
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0804/full/climate.2008.25.html
15
China's National Climate Change Programme. Embassy of the People's Republic of China: 2008
<http://www.chinese-embassy.org.uk/eng/zyxw/t332711.htm>.
16
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change <http://unfccc.int>.
17
The Bali Road Map <http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_13/items/4049.php>.
18
The Bali Road Map in Summary <http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22932645-2,00.html>.
19
Ibid.
QUESTIONS TO CONSIDER
What actions can individuals, industries and governments take to reduce carbon emissions?
Does your government support the Kyoto Protocol? What actions has it taken to address
climate change?
Would your government support an amendment like that proposed by Argentina? Should
developing countries have any obligations regarding the Protocol?
How would emission targets affect your nation? What are some of the risks that are
preventing countries from engaging in emission trading more actively?
how can the genuine intentions of the UNFCCC be achieved? Can the deficiencies of the
mechanisms be overcome? How?