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TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS
....................................................................................................................................................................
LIST OF FIGURES
.................................................................................................................
LIST OF TABLES
......................................................................................................................
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
...................................................................................
1.1 Background ..........................................................................................................................................................
1.2 Lombok Island as the research resource................................................................................................
1.3 Study Location.....................................................................................................................................
1.4 Objectives and argets.........................................................................................................................
1.! Sco"e o# Study 11................................................................................................................................
CHAPTER 2. OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE FOOD CROPS
IN LOMBOK ISLAND West Nusa Tena!a P!"#$n%e
......................
2.1 Overvie$ o# Lombok Island..................................................................................................................
2.2 %otential o# &gricultural 'esources in Lombok Island..........................................................................
2.2.1
'ice ("addy)
...........................................................................................
2.2.2
*ro"
................................................................................................................
2.2.3
%otential o# +orticulture
............................................................
2.2.4
,ruit
................................................................................................................
CHAPTER &. RESEARCH METHOD
....................................................................
3.1 *hronology o# hought and ,rame$ork &nalysis.................................................................................
3.2 'isk &nalysis &""roach &gricultural %roduction &rea in Lombok -B.................................................
3.3 y"es. Sources. and /ata *ollection 0ethods......................................................................................
3.4 /ata &nalysis 0ethod..........................................................................................................................
3.4.1
+a1ard
.........................................................................................................
3.4.2
2ulnerability (2ulnerability)
...................................................
CHAPTER '. HA(ARD ANAL)SIS* #u+ne!a,$+$t- an. !$s/
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR CLIMATE CHANGE
........................................
4.1 3nderstanding *limate *hange and Its Im"act On &griculture Sector.................................................
4.2 +a1ard &nalysis (+a1ard) in the &griculture Sector.............................................................................
4.2.1
+a1ard &nalysis (+a1ard) 44 %lant ,ailure
.............
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4.2.2
+a1ard &nalysis (+a1ard) due to lack o#
$ater in the "remordial
..............................................................
4.2.3
+a1ard &nalysis (+a1ard) ,ailure on the
"ollination "hase
...............................................................................
4.2.4
+a1ard &nalysis (+a1ard) in the "eriod
be#ore the harvest
............................................................................
4.3 2ulnerability &nalysis in &griculture Sector.........................................................................................
4.3.1
2ulnerability &gricultural Based on land5s
ty"e
.................................................................................................................
4.3.2
2ulnerability Based on the slo"e
.......................................
4.3.3
2ulnerability Based on %o"ulation 6el#are
Level
...............................................................................................................
4.3.4
2ulnerability Based on 'ain#all /istribution
.........
4.3.!
2ulnerability otal
............................................................................
4.3.7
2ulnerability o ,ail he harvest
.......................................
4.4 'isk &nalysis.......................................................................................................................................
4.4.1
'isk and ,ailed ,ailed %lanting Bunting
(%remordial)
...........................................................................................
4.4.2
he risk o# cro" #ailure
................................................................
CHAPTER 0. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
...............................................
!.1 &""roach and Strategy ,aced $ith *limate *hange in &griculture.......................................................
!.2 he conce"t o# Integrated &da"tation Strategies.................................................................................
!.3 &da"tation Strategy o# Land 'ain$ater 'ice......................................................................................
!.4 &da"tation Strategies 'ice Irrigation Land........................................................................................
CHAPTER 1. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7 .1 %olicy..........................................................................................................................................
7.2 'ecommendations......................................................................................................................
'8,8'8-*8S
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LIST OF FIGURES
F$u!e 1.1
Increased national rice "roduction #rom 149: to
144;
...........................................................................................................................
F$u!e 1.2
%rocurement o# soybean #rom
..........................................................
F$u!e 1.&
<ro$th and change in dry milled rice "roduction in
Indonesia #or 1: years
.............................................................................
F$u!e 1.'
*ondition <ora rice $ater stress is e="erienced at
the age o# >rst #ertili1ation (+alil documentation
on observations in ,ebruary 2::;)
.............................................
F$u!e 1.0
%attern o# rain#all and air tem"erature on the
island o# Lombok in the "eriod 1471 to 2::;
...................
F$u!e 1.1
&lternative annual cro""ing on the island o#
Lombok -B
......................................................................................................
F$u!e &.1
/iagram o# the "otential ?o$ analysis. ha1ard and
vulnerability o""ortunities agricultural sector to
climate change
................................................................................................
F$u!e '.1
<ra"h *ummulative ,re@uency /istribution (*/,)
otal 'un OA in -ovember
BBBBBBBBBBBBBBB
!;
Ga2,a! '.2
otal 'un OA in /ecember C Danuary
.........................................
F$u!e '.&
otal 'un OA on ,ebruary
....................................................................
F$u!e '.'
0a" o# landEuse ty"es on the island o# Lombok
based on the results o# the analysis and $eighting
method F%air$ise *om"arisonF.
.....................................................
F$u!e '.0
/istribution ma" slo"e rate (slo"e) on the island o#
Lombok
....................................................................................................................
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F$u!e '.1
0a" o# the distribution o# the "ercentage o# "reE
"ros"erous #amilies and less "ros"erous on the
island o# Lombok in 2::7
......................................................................
F$u!e '.3
0a" o# vulnerability based on distribution o#
rain#all in the e=treme conditions used to dry the
"lant #ailed 'isk
..............................................................................................
F$u!e '.4
6et scenarios ma" used #or risk o# cro" #ailure.
...........
F$u!e '.5
he vulnerability o# "lanting #ails to take into
account the $el#are o# the "o"ulation
.....................................
F$u!e '.16
0a" o# areas $ith the level o# vulnerability to
ha1ards analysis #ailed "lanting scenario 2
($ithout the $el#are o# the "o"ulation)
..................................
F$u!e '.11
0a" o# the level o# vulnerability to cro" #ailure
bahayan scenario analysis 1 (taking into account
the $el#are o# the "o"ulation)
..........................................................
F$u!e '.12
0a" o# the level o# vulnerability to the danger o#
cro" #ailure analysis scenario 2 ($ithout
considering the $el#are o# the "o"ulation)
.........................
F$u!e '.1&
0a" o# the lo$ risk level o# the danger #ailed
"lanting scenario analysis scenarios 1 and 2
....................
F$u!e '.1'
0a" 0edium risk level E high against the dangers
o# #ailed "lanting scenario analysis scenarios 1 and
2
.....................................................................................................................................
F$u!e '.10
0a" 0edium risk level o# the danger o# cro"
#ailure analysis scenario 1 and scenario 2
.........................1::
F$u!e '.11
0a" 0edium risk level E high against the danger o#
cro" #ailure analysis scenarios scenarios 1 and 2
......1:1
F$u!e 0.1
Schematic a""roach to climate change eAorts
.............1:2
F$u!e 0.2
<rand /esign Strategies ,acing the Im"act o#
*limate *hange
............................................................................................1:3
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F$u!e 0.&
2alue *hain (2alue *hain) ada"tation o# the
integrated im"acts o# climate change
....................................1:7
LIST OF TABLES
Ta,e+ 1.1
he develo"ment o# ra$ land area o# "addy >elds in
-B in the !Eyear "eriod (2::2 to 2::7) (-B in
,igures. 2::;).
.....................................................................................................14
Ta,+e 2.1
%o"ulation "er /istrict Lombok Island C *ity Gear 2::2
2::; (-B in ,igures. 2::9).
...............................................................22
Ta,+e 2.2
&rea +arvested. &lign E %roduction 'ate and
%roduction o# 'ice ,ields by each district C city in the
island o# Lombok in 2::; (-B in >gures. 2::9)
.............23
Ta,+e 2.&
Land y"es &nd 'ice Irrigation (ha) o# each district C
city on the island o# Lombok in 2::; (-B in ,igures.
2::9)
.............................................................................................................................. 24
Ta,+e 2.'
Si1e o# "otential #or dry land cultivation o# #ood cro"s
(grains and vegetables) on the island o# Lombok -B
dry land use in 2::;
.......................................................................................2!
Ta,+e 2.0
%otential /evelo"ment o# Soybean each subdistrict in
Lombok Island
......................................................................................................27
Ta,+e 2.1
%otential /evelo"ment o# 0ai1e in Lombok Island
.........27
Ta,+e 2.3
%otential /evelo"ment in 6est -usa enggara %eanut
............................................................................................................................................. 2;
Ta,+e 2.4
%otential 0ung /evelo"ment in Lombok Island
.................2;
Ta,+e 2.5
%otential area o# land use and develo"ment o# red
onion
............................................................................................................................... 29
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Ta,+e 2.16
%otential area develo"ment and land use chili
....................24
Ta,+e 2.11
%otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability 0ango
............................................................................................................................................. 3:
Ta,+e 2.12
%otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability 0ango
............................................................................................................................................. 31
Ta,+e 2.1&
%otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability
'ambutan
..................................................................................................................31
Ta,+e 2.1'
%otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability
*hryso"hyllum
.....................................................................................................32
Ta,+e 2.10
%otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability Banana
............................................................................................................................................. 33
Ta,+e 2.11
%otential Land /evelo"ment Suitability %inea""le in
Lombok Island
......................................................................................................34
Ta,+e 2.13
6ide "otential area o# Land /evelo"ment Suitability
/urian in Lombok
.............................................................................................3!
Ta,+e &.1
6ork?o$ vulnerability assessment and analysis o# the
im"act o# climate change
..........................................................................3;
Ta,+e &.2
*om"arison Scale (Saaty. 149:)
.........................................................4;
Ta,+e '.1
%hases in the "lanting o# rice gro$th #rom "lanting
until ready to harvest
....................................................................................!!
Ta,+e '.2
he results o# the "redictive "otential #ailure o# rice
cro"s in the island o# Lombok in every 1:Eyear
..................!;
Ta,+e '.&
Indicators o# #ailure ha1ard rate o# rice "lants on the
island o# Lombok in every 1:Eyear
...................................................!9
Ta,+e '.'
he results o# "rediction "otential danger (ha1ard) o#
#ailure in "hase rice bunting ("remordial) on the
...................................................71
Ta,+e '.0
he level and danger o# #ailure on the $eight o# "hase
bunting ("remordial) on the island o# Lombok in every
1:Eyear
......................................................................................................................... 72
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Ta,+e '.1
he results o# "rediction "otential danger (ha1ard) in
the "hase be#ore the rice harvest $as 4! to 11: days
on the island o# Lombok in every 1:Eyear
.................................74
Ta,+e '.3
he level and $eight o# the dangers o# #ailure in "hase
be#ore the rice harvest $as 4! to 11: days on the
...................................................74
Ta,+e '.4
&reas "rone to drought based on the ty"e o# land use
in Lombok Island
...............................................................................................74
Ta,+e '.5
&reas "rone to drought based on the ty"e o# land use
in Lombok
.................................................................................................................;:
Ta,+e '.16
*lass rank slo"e in "lace and Lombok Island
.......................;2
Ta,+e '.11
%ercent he "ercentage o# "ros"erous and less
"ros"erous on the island o# Lombok (B%S survey.
2::7)
.............................................................................................................................. ;4
Ta,+e '.12
6eighted every "arameter 1 vulnerability scenarios to
assess the vulnerability o# #ailed cro"s in Lombok
Island
............................................................................................................................. 91
Ta,+e '.1&
6eighted every "arameter vulnerability scenario 1
($ith the $el#are o# the "o"ulation) to assess the
vulnerability o# #ailed cro"s in Lombok Island
.....................93
Ta,+e '.1'
able >eld area aAected by natural disasters o#
drought on rice "lants on the island o# Lombok in
2::4 s C d in 2::9 (/e"artment o# &griculture -B.
2::4)
.............................................................................................................................. 9!
Ta,+e '.10
6eighted every "arameter susce"tibility in the
scenario 1 (taking into account the $el#are o# the
"o"ulation) to assess the vulnerability o# cro" #ailures
in Lombok Island
...............................................................................................9;
Ta,+e '.11
6eighted every "arameter susce"tibility in the
scenario 2 ($ithout considering the $el#are o# the
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"o"ulation) to assess the vulnerability o# cro" #ailures
in Lombok Island
...............................................................................................99
Ta,+e '.13
/rought disaster area #or lo$land rice cro"s in the
island o# Lombok 2::;C2::9 "lanting season
(-ovember 2::; E 0arch 2::9) and the dry season in
2::9 (/e"artment o# &griculture -B. 2::4)
......................4:
Ta,+e '.14
he intensity o# drought on the island o# Lombok to
the rice cro" in 2::9 (/e"artment o# &griculture -B.
2::4)
.............................................................................................................................. 41
Ta,+e '.15
Identi>cation and alternative "ananganan drought in
disaster areas
........................................................................................................41
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CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
1. Background
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (I%**) oAicially
declared at the Summit (Summit) 8arth date o# 3 to 14 Dune 1442
in 'io de Daneiro. Bra1il. #ollo$ed by 1;4 countries that the
8arthHs climate has changed. he "henomenon o# climate change
is kno$n as a change global climate. *limate change is intended
in this case is the change in climate elements in the "eriod #rom
!: to 1:: years are aAected by human activities such as energy
consum"tion. industrial. trans"ortation and land cover change
resulting in the accumulation o# greenhouse gases (*O2. *+4.
*,*s. -2O). &ccording to I%** (2::1). global climate change is
very sensitive to some things in human living systems. namely (1)
administration o# $ater and $ater resourcesI (2) agriculture and
#ood securityI (3) terrestrial ecosystems and #resh$aterI (4)
coastal areas and seasI (!) human healthI (7) housing. energy
and industry. and >nancial services.
he in?uence o# global climate change. es"ecially on the
agricultural sector in Indonesia has been #elt and become reality.
his change is indicated among others by the ?oods. droughts
(long dry season) and shi#ting the rainy season. In recent years
the rainy season caused a shi#t in shi#ting the "lanting season
and harvest #ood commodities (rice. "ulses and vegetables).
6hile ?oods and droughts cause #ailed cro"s. cro" #ailure. and
even cause "uso.
Based on the results o# monitoring conducted by the /e"artment
o# &griculture during the last 1: years (1443E2::2). gained an
average rate o# agricultural land aAected by the drought area to
22:.39: hectares o# land "uso reached 43.434 hectares.
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e@uivalent to !3:.::: tons o# dry milled grain (<J<). 6hile the
aAected ?ood area "uso 1!9.4;4 hectares $ith 39.429 hectares
(e@uivalent to 4::.::: tons <J<). hen. bet$een October 2::1
until ,ebruary 2::2. noted there are 42 major ?ood events in
Indonesia $hich led to 1;3.9!4 hectares o# inundated rice >elds
and "lantations. and 297: hectares o# "onds C "ools submerged.
*limate change in a region is indicated also by the e=istence o#
seasonal climate variations (seasonal Variability). Seasonal
climate variations on the island o# Lombok 6est -usa enggara
characteri1ed by the occurrence o# droughts. the rains are
erratic and relatively short time "eriod so that o#ten causes cro"
#ailure and even #ailed to "lanting #ood cro"s like rice. "ulses and
vegetables. In other $ords. seasonal climate variations can be
considered as one o# the main causes o# declining agricultural
"roduksti in a broad sense. es"ecially the "roductivity o# #ood
cro"s. "lantations. #orestry and even #arms.
Based on #act. climate e="erts argue that climate variation is
irregular is closely associated $ith e=treme climatic events o#
8-SO (El Nino outhern !scillation). ,or e=am"le. Boer and
0einke (2::2) suggests that the monsoon regions such as Dava.
8ast Indonesia and the southern "art o# Sumatra. that at certain
seasons Southern Oscillation strong in?uence o# climatic #actors
such as rain. cloud changes that aAect the closure o# radiation.
tem"erature. eva"oration and air humidity $hich $ill aAect all
"lant gro$th. Occurrence o# climate e=tremes such as 8l -ino
and La -ina in Indonesia aAect the develo"ment o# #ood cro"
"roduction. Strong in?uence o# 8-SO can be demonstrated by
looking at events o# long drought and drought in various regions
in Indonesia $hich coincided $ith 8l -ino events (Gasin et al.
2::2).
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-ational &gricultural Statistics sho$ed that total rice "roduction
in Indonesia #or 2: years have increased due to im"roved
#arming techni@ues that im"rove the use o# varieties. #ertili1er
use. regular irrigation. and "est and disease control. +o$ever.
the rate o# increase o# "roduction declined in the occurrence o#
8l -ino like in 1441. 1444 and 144; as illustrated in the gra"h
belo$ (Boer and 0einke. 2::2).
F$u!e 1.1 Increased
national rice
"roduction #rom 149:
to 144;
F$u!e 1.2 Soybean
"roduction #rom year 14!:
to 2:::
In >gure 1.1 the above can be seen that the red dots (8l -ino)
describes the decline in rice "roduction is likely gro$ing #rom
year to year since 1491 until the year 144;.$hile ,igure 1.2
illustrates the decline in soybean "roduction years o# e=treme
climate (8l -ino). he same is true in the ne=t 1: years (1449 to
2::;). $as an increase in national rice "roduction as sho$n by
the "ictures belo$ 1.3. but it ha""ens soybean "roduction
decline occurred during the 8l -ino occurs also $ith a decline in
soybean "roduction in 8l -ino years 1492. 149;. 1444 and 144;.
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F$u!e 1.& <ro$th and change in dry milled rice "roduction in
Indonesia #or 1: years (144; E 2::9)
Occurrence o# climate e=tremes (8l -ino) illustrates that the
agricultural sector. and anomalies o# climate change is very
vulnerable to changes in #ood "roduction. I# a decline in
"roductivity due to harvest and "uso kegagagalan #rom drought
the "ossibility o# #ood insecurity $ill be very large.
he in?uence o# climatic e=treme to the decline o# national
agricultural "roduction can not al$ays be seen. his may be
caused by several things (Boer and 0einke. 2::2). namely (1)
statistics based on calendar year instead o# the occurrence o# 8l
-ino. (2) not all regions in Indonesia al$ays in?uenced by 8l
-ino. (3) lack o# $ater due to 8l -ino events may change the
original decision o# such #armers to gro$ rice but $as re"laced
by "lanting soybeans or other nonErice. (4) limitations o# $ater
$ill reduce the total area "lanted in irrigated land $ill but the
yield "er unit area $ill increase due to the increased intensity o#
radiation.
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,urthermore. the Boer and 0einke (2::2) suggests that the
in?uence o# climate variability may be seen more strongly in
local or regional level than at the national level. ,or e=am"le.
drought can be vie$ed on the island o# Lombok (6est -usa
enggara) $hich o#ten occurs and resulting #amine that is very
serious. ,or e=am"le. "eam IB (1474) re"orted that the #amine
years o# 14!4 and 1477 are recorded as an event that caused
thousands o# "eo"le died o# starvation in southern "art o# *entral
Lombok. Occurrence o# drought due to long drought in the
island o# Lombok in those years coincided $ith 8l -ino events.
$hich are related to signal the outhern !scillation Inde# (SOI)
or called by the South Oscillation Inde= (IOS) is a strong negative
in the %aci>c.
Similarly. in the year 144;C1449 there negative SOI signal in the
%aci>c. $hich took "lace in the year o# drought and drought are
closely related to 8-SO. B%% -B (1444) re"orted that the
drought year o# 144;C1449 8-SO causes -B +a 94:: rice cro"
suAered severe drought and a""ro=imately 14:: ha o# $hich
have "uso $hich in turn resulted in a decreased "roduction o#
rice. o "revent a decrease in rice "roduction in Lombok -B as
a result o# the drought and agricultural "ractitioners #amiliar and
#armers need to understand the 8-SO "henomenon so that
#armers can do mensiasati and ada"tation in #arming activities.
both on land and rice "addy >elds irrigated rain#ed.
&da"tation eAorts to #ace climate change on agriculture at the
regional level as $ell as the #ace o# climate change at the
national level. &da"tation at the regional level (eg the island o#
Lombok) is more #ocused on eAorts to sa#eguard regional
develo"ment objectives through vulnerability assessment in an
eAort to su""ort the im"rovement o# #ood security. ,ood security
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in a region highly vulnerable to the threat o# climate change.
here#ore. vulnerability assessment needs to be done regionally
to see the level o# regional vulnerability and determine the
"olicies and ada"tation strategies based on local needs and
conditions.
1.1 Lombok Island as a Study Location
6est -usa enggara %rovince (-B) "rovince is one o# the
national #ood buAer. es"ecially rice $hich is e="ected to
contribute "roduction o# rice more than ;: thousand tons <rain
/ry <iling (<J<) or e@ual to 4: thousand tons o# rice "er year
(-B &gricultural OAice. 2::9) . o reali1e the contributions o#
-B "rovincial government im"lement the -ational 'ice
%roduction Increase (%2B-) to involve #armers in a "artici"atory
$ay. and su""orted by the "rovision o# agricultural "roduction.
es"ecially #ertili1er. seeds. tools and &gricultural 0achinery
(&lsintan). "roviding rein#orcement and e=tension o# ca"ital.
%rovision o# #ertili1er and rice seeds to su""ort "rograms
conducted through %2B- subsidy "olicy by #ollo$ing the
mechanisms. "rocedures and su"ervision. +o$ever. this "olicy
$ill not $ork o"timally i# it is not su""orted by the state o#
natural resources such as the &groEclimate conditions. es"ecially
rain#all. availability o# suAicient irrigation $ater #or rice cro"s.
'ice #arming intensively in Lombok -B conducted in various
ty"es o# agricultural land. land that is dry and $et land ($et
land). /ry land ($%land& dry land or unirrigated land) is utili1ed
land areas $ithout "ermanent $aterElogging as $ell as seasonal.
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either by berumber $ater #rom rain or irrigation $ater (3tomo et
al. 1443). /e>nition o# dry land on the island o# Lombok is the
same as understanding non irrigated land& ie land that has no
irrigation #acilities.
&gricultural land on the island o# Lombok consists o# dry land
and "addy >elds. 'ice made u" o# technical irrigated rice >elds.
ie >elds that al$ays take $ater throughout the yearI semiE
technical irrigated rice >eld. the >elds o# $ater shortages in the
dry season. and rain#ed rice land (rain'ed) rice "addy irrigation
$hich de"ends entirely on rain. B%S in 2::; noted that the ra$
rice acreage in -B is like in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 1.1 he develo"ment o# ra$ land area o# "addy
>elds in -B in the !Eyear "eriod (2::2 to 2::7) (-B in
,igures. 2::;).
-o Denis Irigasi &+3-
2::2 2::3 2::4 2::! 2::7
1 Irigasi teknis
(+a)
;7.;73 ;!.;31 ;9.419 ;4.4!; 94.119
2 Irigasi K teknis
(+a)
;;.143 ;7.4!3 ;4.!13 ;1.;:9 ;2.47;
3 Irigasi sederhana
(+a)
1:.2!7 11.;:4 12.;;7 13.4:4 13.19;
4 Irigasi -on %3
(+a)
24.4!9 2!.172 2!.434 2!.:;4 2!.9!2
! adah hujan (+a) 32.149 33.277 37.:44 37.:;1 37.347
7 Dumlah 2:4.:4
3
214.41
:
221.31
9
222.91
7
22;.:1
3
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I# there is a long drought #or the dry rice "lants gro$n in the
rain#ed rice >eld $ill e="erience $ater stress is most severe as
seen in the #ollo$ing >gure. so unlike the "roduction o# cro"
"roduction in irrigated areas.
F$u!e 1.' *ondition <ora rice $ater stress is e="erienced at
the age o# >rst #ertili1ation (+alil documentation on observations
in ,ebruary 2::;)
'ice "roduction in rain#ed rice >eld average ranges #rom 2 to 3.!
tons. $hile rice "roduction in irrigated rice >elds bet$een 4.! to
!.! tons "er ha (B%S. 2:::). &ssociated $ith rain#all that aAect
rice "roduction. both in irrigated rice areas and in rain#ed areas.
it is necessary cro""ing arrangements and "ro"er "lanting
schedule #or the rain $ater can be utili1ed by the rice cro"
eAectively.
'ain#all "atterns in the island o# Lombok "rubahan o#ten
e="erience. but in the "eriod since 1471 u" to 2::; ranging in
rain#all "atterns in -ovember. /ecember. Danuary. ,ebruary and
0arch. 'ain#all "atterns are gra"hically set #orth belo$ by
(+adi. 2::4).

8
Agriculture Sector
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F$u!e 1.0 %attern o# rain#all and air tem"erature on the
island o# Lombok in the "eriod 1471 to 2::;
Both high and lo$ "roductivity o# rain#ed rice land in the island
o# Lombok is correlated $ith rain#all "atterns due to irrigation
$ater source are derived #rom rain $ater. he average annual
rain#all varies by season and region. &""ro=imately 9:L o#
annual rain#all occurs bet$een Se"tember and ,ebruary. %eriod
#rom &"ril to &ugust is really dry and "roduces less than 1:L o#
annual rain#all (&ba$i et al.& 2::2).
Lombok Island has t$o seasons. the rainy season and dry season
is closely related to the e=istence o# this island in the e@uatorial
region ?anked by &sia and &ustralia. and ?anked by t$o oceans
did the Indian Ocean and %aci>c Ocean. *oming and the end o#
the rainy season on the island o# Lombok is very uncertain. he
9
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rainy season sometimes lasts #or months o# -ovember s C d &"ril.
but the start and end vary $idely de"ending on its location and
natural "henomena. ,or e=am"le. Lombok Island -orth (around
the #oot o# 0ount 'injani south) early rainy season sometimes
#alls in late October. $hile in southern Lombok rainy season #alls
in late -ovember and even in /ecember. $hile the coastal areas
to the north 'injani mountain rain early in the season starting in
Danuary. /ry season begins in &"ril to October. I# the same
ha""ens $ith the 8l -iMo "henomenon usually Lombok Island
has a long drought that marked the #all rainy season in midE
-ovember and even early /ecember. y"e o# climate in the
southern area o# Lombok is the /3 and /4 $ith 3E4 $et months
"er year (Oldeman. Irsal. and 0uladi. 149:).
he im"lications o# the beginning o# the rainy season and dry
season on the island o# Lombok are determining $hen to start
the "lanting season and harvest season. here are 3 (three)
seasons in a year on the island o# Lombok. namely (1) %lanting
Season I called 'ain or 0+ season #rom -ovember to ,ebruary.
In this season. #armers usually gro$ rice. (2) %lanting Season
/ry Season II is 1 or 0J1 #rom 0arch until Dune. In this season.
usually #armers gro$ rice in irrigated areas and technical >elds
and C or tobacco cro"s in irrigated areas o# technical K. (3)
%lanting Season III (/ry Season 2 or 0J2) starting #rom Duly to
October. In this season. #armers generally "lant cro"s and C or
2irginia tobacco. ,armers also gro$ rice in irrigated areas o#
technical >elds. In detail. the "attern o# "lanting on the island o#
Lombok can be "oured in the "icture belo$.
%ola anam (e=isting) di %ulau Lombok
0usim +ujan 0usim Jering 1 0usim Jering 2
10
Agriculture Sector
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11 12 :1 :2 :3 :4 :! :7 :; :9 :4 1:
*ro" %&/I
*ro" %&/I
%&L&6ID&
*ro" %&/I
%&L&6ID&
B8'O
*ro" 80B&J&3 2I'<I-I&
F$u!e 1.1 &lternative annual cro""ing on the island o# Lombok
-B.
%lanting "attern is a habit and routine o# #armers every year. I#
the rain had started #alling in -ovember. the #armers $ho
introduced a system o# "addy rice in irrigated "addy >eld rice
seeds begin menyemaikan. $hile the rice land is rain#ed rice
systems "enugalan to <ogorancah (<ora). &chievement level o#
rice "roduction on the island o# Lombok -B. both "addy rice
(rancah) and <ora is determined by rain#all "atterns and "est
diseases. he achievement o# this "roduction is not only caused
by lo$ rain#all during the "lanting or the rice gro$ing "eriod (eg
during "remordial). but also determined by rain#all at the time o#
discharge "anicles (?o$ering). I# there are e=cessive rain#alls
during ?o$ering. then the "roduction $ill be lo$ because there
is no "er#ect "ollination. &ssociated $ith rain#all ?uctuations on
the island o# Lombok the im"lications o# the #ailed harvest and
"lanting #ailure are a ha(ard o# climate change. +ence.
vulnerability assessment o# climate change ada"tation is
"er#ormed on the island o# Lombok.
1.2 <oals and argets
1. *onducting agricultural vulnerability assessment o# climate
change on the island o# Lombok. $hich is e=amining the
11
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"ossibility o# danger (ha(ard) and the risks "osed by
climate change.
1) /evelo" measures o# ada"tation strategies #or local action
(action) $ith res"ect to the integrated management o#
"erinsi" im"lementation o# ada"tation strategies in a
coordinated. collaborative. "artici"atory. e@uitable.
re"resentation (re%resentative)& by conserving natural
resources
1.3 Out"ut
'eali1ation o# the study results in a >nal re"ort on the
vulnerabilities and risks o# the agricultural sector on the island o#
Lombok to climate change. and ste"s tersusunnya ada"tation
strategies in the #orm o# "artici"atory guidelines ()uide *ine)
based on analysis o# to%+do,n and bottom u% to the baseline
data.
1.4 Study Sco"e
1) *once"tual #rame$ork and the ste"s in the study
methodologically 'isk o""ortunities o# climate change on
agriculture.
2) Identi#y baseline data needed to determine the level o#
vulnerability to "artial (each district)
3) /ata collection and analysis o# data. then inter"ret the
results o# the analysis to the case in Lombok Island
4) 2ulnerability analysis o# the agricultural sector and the
"ossibility o# the danger o# climate change on the island o#
Lombok
12
Agriculture Sector
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!) %redict. inter"retation o# the results o# the analysis.
ma""ing (-a%%ing) based on their vulnerability to justi#y a
"artial area (each district) based on the level o#
vulnerability.
7) 'isk assessment (.isk /ssessment) *limate *hange #ailed
"lanting o""ortunities and cro" #ailure. the im"act on
,a+an%e 7e!8"!2an%e "8 t9e 8"". : 8"". se%u!$t-
(supply, .$st!$,ut$"n* %"nsu27t$"n;
;) /evelo" #ormulation o# ada"tation strategies in the
agricultural sector (adjusting cro""ing "atterns. "lanting
schedules) to res"ond to climate change on the island o#
Lombok
9) %rovide in"ut to the <overnment in the "re"aration '%D0
#ocused on climate change on the agricultural sector.
13
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CHAPTER 2. OVERVIEW OF AGRICULTURE FOOD CROPS
IN LOMBOK ISLAND West Nusa Tena!a P!"#$n%e
1.5 Lombok Island Overvie$
Island area o# Lombok is 4;39.;: km
2
(23.!L) o# the 6est -usa
enggara area o# 44.312.!4 km
2
$ide. he "o"ulation in the
year 2::; amounted to 3.:34.947 inhabitants $ith a "o"ulation
densityN !44 inhabitants C km
2.
Lombok Island $hich is "art o#
the "rovince o# -usa enggara Barat (-B) consists o# 3 districts
and one city. namely the 8ast Lombok regency ca"ital center the
Selong. *entral Lombok regency ca"ital center in %raya. Lombok
Barat /istrict $ith the ca"ital center gro$led. and the city $ith
the ca"ital city o# 0ataram in 0ataram. In early 2::4 #ormed a
ne$ district o# -orth Lombok regency ca"ital $hich is the *a"e
division o# the /istrict o# 6est Lombok. hus #rom the beginning
o# 2::4. the island o# Lombok consists o# 4 districts and one city.
-B Lombok Island tro"ical climate $ith t$o seasons namely
the rainy season $hich lasts #rom -ovember to 0arch. and the
dry season lasting #rom &"ril until October $ith the air
tem"erature annual average o# 2!.!: O *elsius. *limate on the
island o# Lombok is inse"arable #rom the "osition o# being
?anked by t$o continents. the &ustralian continent and the
continent o# &sia. and the t$o oceans. the seas o# Indonesia and
the %aci>c Ocean. /istribution o# rain#all and the start o# the
rainy season on the island are relatively uneven. his relates
also to the "resence o# 'injani on Lombok island to the north
$ith an altitude o# 3;27 meters above sea level (e="lanation o#
the conditions o# rain#all and the rainy season associated $ith
14
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the "osition o# this island e=istence and the e=istence o# 'injani
is described in *ha"ter 4.
he main source o# $ater on the island o# Lombok is a #orm o#
rivers. s"rings. lakes. and dams embung (0am). 0ost rivers
have a rain catching area (/%S) is small. and dried in the dry
season. Based on data #rom the %ublic 6orks /e"artment -B.
the number o# rivers on the island o# Lombok is as much as 319
#ruit s"read in 3 districts and one city. the 6est Lombok as many
as 174 "ieces. 41 "ieces o# *entral Lombok. 8ast Lombok 1:4
"ieces. and 0ataram city o# 4 "ieces. here are 4: #ruits long
river that has more than 3: km and only 1: stores that have a
/%S rivers is greater than 2:: km
2.
o overcome the shortage o#
irrigation $ater has built a largeEscale dam like Batujai and
%engga /am and more than 1!: #ruit embung o# small and
medium scale.
Lombok Island geogra"hical conditions vary $idely. ie. consisting
o# the central hills o# 0ount 'injani is located in the middle o#
the island. as $ell as clusters in the southern mountains o# the
island. 0ount 'injani addition. there are also cluster other
mountains. namely 0t 0areje (;17 md"l). 0ount imanuk (md"l
2372). 0ount -angi (md"l 233:). 0ount %arigi (1!32 md"l).
0ount %ela$angan (md"l 2739). -e$ 0ount (23;7 md"l).
Lo$land $hich is a center o# agricultural cultivation that lay at
the center o# the island e=tends #rom $est to east coast.
-B %o"ulation based on -ational Socioeconomic Survey
(S3S8-&S) o# 2::3 $as 4.::!.37: inhabitants. %o"ulation
density averaged 144 "eo"le "er km
2
$ith a gro$th rate reached
1.33L "er year. /etails o# the number o# residents "er district C
city according to gender can be seen in the #ollo$ing tableN
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Agriculture Sector
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Ta,+e 2.1 otal %o"ulation Lombok -B "er 'egency C *ity Gear
2::2E2::; (-B in ,igures. 2::9).
otal %o"ulation (Soul)

-o.
/istrict C
*ity
2::2 2::3 2::4 2::! 2::7 2::;
I. %. Lombok
2.4:9.:
4!

2.93;.7
42

2.994.7
39

2.42;.3
41

3.:1!.2
4!

3.:34.9
47
1 6est
Lombok

;73.2:4

;:9.79;

;24.441

;43.494

;92.443

;47.1:;
2 Lombok
engah

;97.1:;

;;7.449

;93.4;2

;43.44:

92!.;;2

931.297
1.6 'esource %otential o# &griculture in Lombok Island
&gricultural sector on the island o# Lombok is a subEregional
economic sectors that still "lays a key role in the #ormation o#
</%. here#ore. agricultural develo"ment in the island is not
only intended to accommodate rural labor and reducing the rate
o# urbani1ation. but more oriented to increase #armersH income
through "enigkatan valueEadded agricultural "roducts. o
achieve these objectives $ill be a variety o# businesses. namely
intensi>cation. e=tensi>cation. diversi>cation. and rehabilitation.
&gricultural sector is develo"ed in this island consists o# >ve
subEsectors namelyN ,ood *ro"s. %lantation. ,orestry. &nimal
+usbandry and ,isheries.
16
Agriculture Sector
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1.6.1 R$%e P+ant
,ood cro"s includeN rice. second cro"s o# mai1e and beans.
"otatoes. vegetables. and #ruits. %addy "roduction in 2::; had
e="erienced a decrease o# about 1.74 "ercent #rom the "revious
year because in 2::; there #ailed "lanting and cro" #ailure in
rain#ed areas o# South Lombok. /uring the "eriod 2::3 E 2::;.
rice "roduction in Lombok Island @uite varied in each district.
Ta,+e 2.2 &rea +arvested. &lign E %roduction 'ate and
%roduction o# 'ice ,ields by each district C city in the island o#
Lombok in 2::; (-B in >gures. 2::9)
/istrict C *ity &rea +arvested
(+a)
%roductivity (k$ C
ha)
%roduction
(tons)
1. 6est
Lombok
39.:74 44.29 19;.!9;
2. Lombok
engah
73.411 49.42 31:.217
3. 8ast
Lombok
!!.!47 49.3! 279.!;3
4. Jota
0ataram
3.;41 !:.:3 19.;17
Lombok Island 294.491 49.;1 1.41:.:47
Be#ore the year 149: the island o# Lombok is a #oodEinsecure
areas because in the 147:s and 14;:s occurred almost every
year o# cro" #ailure and disaster "roductivity #or "addy rice >eld
is relatively lo$ due to lo$ rain#all and the rainy season is
relatively short. In the 14;:s #or si= consecutive years o# cro"
17
Agriculture Sector
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#ailure has occurred in rain#ed areas o# South Lombok due to
drought. But since the 14;4C149: "lanting season is the trans#er
o# technology o# rice cultivation system o# rice "addy systems
(rancah) into the system <ogorancah (<ora). 'ancah system is a
system o# rice cultivation by $ay o# a "ool o# $ater since the
beginning o# "lanting seeds to grain maturation "hase. he %lant
system <ogo 'ancah (<ora) is a merger o# t$o rice #arming
systems. ie systems <ogo (dry systems such as "addy >elds) $ith
rancah system (system 6et C "ool). In <ora system. seed ditugal
on land that had already been "re"ared ("rocessed at the
beginning o# the rainy season. then a#ter a 4:EdayEold rice a#ter
"lanting. "lants ?ooded rice because at that time "redicted
rain#all is suAicient #or the rice cro").
<ora system a""lied in rain#ed rice lands o# South Lombok since
149:C1491 $ith satis#actory results because the original -B
area status as a #oodEinsecure areas into riceE"roducing areas
(#ood) and su""liers o# rice to several "rovinces in Indonesia.
angible results #rom <ora system su""orted by the
im"lementation o# the S"ecial Intensi>cation o# -B "rovince
achieve sel#EsuAiciency o# rice in 1494 and contributed in
su""orting the national #ood stock.
'ice #arming systems o# rice "addy >elds and carried out by
#armers gogorancah on technical irrigated rice >eld. semiE
technical and the rain#ed areaHs "otential as the #ollo$ing table.
he rest is the land area o# the >eld (>eld) that can be "lanted
$ith rice <ogo ("addy >eld).
18
Agriculture Sector
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Ta,+e 2.& Land y"es &nd 'ice Irrigation (ha) o# each district C
city on the island o# Lombok in 2::; (-B in ,igures. 2::9)
/istrict C
*ity
Irrigation
echnical
Irrigation +al# 'ain#ed
1 time
"lanting
%lanting
2 times
1 time
"lanting
%lanting
2 times
1 time
"lanting
%lanting
2 times
o 1. 6est
Lombok
4.934 4.:47 44; 2.73; 3.93; EE
2.
Lombok
engah
194 23.934 9.:24 4.992 11.144 EE
3. 8ast
Lombok
2.493 2.92! 19.797 4.7;; 474 EE
4. Jota
0ataram
EE 2;9 EE 1.!3! EE EE
Lombok
Island
;.!:7 37.:33 2;.2:; 13.;31 1!.44!
In general cro""ing cro"s such as corn. beans made in the rice
>eld in the second "lanting season (02) a#ter the rice cro".
6hereas in the rainy season. many commodities gro$n in dry
land (>elds) in intercro""ing $ith other cro"s such as cassava.
s$eet "otato and sorghum. %otential dry land (>elds) in the -B
Lombok Island is an o""ortunity #or the develo"ment o# such
cro"s is in the #ollo$ing table.
1.6.2 H"!t$%u+tu!e 7+ants
In general cro""ing cro"s such as corn. beans made in the rice
>eld in the second "lanting season (02) a#ter the rice cro".
19
Agriculture Sector
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6hereas in the rainy season. many commodities gro$n in dry
land (>elds) in intercro""ing $ith other cro"s such as cassava.
s$eet "otato and sorghum. %otential dry land (>elds) in the -B
Lombok Island is an o""ortunity #or the develo"ment o# such
cro"s is in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2.' Si1e o# "otential #or dry land cultivation o# #ood cro"s
(grains and vegetables) on the island o# Lombok -B -B
enggunaan dryland Gear 2::;
.
-o.

/istrict
P /ry land
(+a)
he "otential #or
an. ,ood
%otential
develo"ment
+orticulture
commodities
1 Lobar 1:!.431 23.244 1:.;99
2 &ttic 17;.423 1!.243 127.1!1
3 Lotim 92.44: 23.499 2:.449
4
0atara
m
4.1:! EE EE
L"2,"/
Is+an.
&05*455 12030 103*5&3
ource1 N"B Provincial /griculture !2ice
y"e o# commodity cro"s are develo"ed and become su"erior in
the island o# Lombok -B are soybeans. corn. "eanut. and green
beans. he "otential s"read o# soybean in each district $ith
varying levels o# "roductivity de"ending on the level o# soil
#ertility. land keseuaian. su""ort local $eather and irrigation.
his means that the "roductivity o# soybean in the irrigated areas
o# technical or semiEtechnical higher than rain#ed areas. In the
last year o# soybean "roduction could be "roblematic due to
20
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
interest #armers to "lant soybeans is very lo$ because the
market "rices that are not considered "romising and "ro>table
#armers. so #armers "re#er other commodities that have market
"rices that more clear. ?uctuate according to market demand
and "rices. Based on the level o# land suitability. the area o#
soybean develo"ment is like in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2.0 %otential /evelo"ment o# Soybean each district on the
island o# Lombok -B
/istrict %otential (ha)
P

3tili1ation
(ha)
Location *enter (Sub)
Lhn
J'<
Lhn
S$h
1. Jota
0ataram
EE 1.2!1 1.2!1 *akranegara. &m"enan
2. 6est
Lombok
!.:2! 4.::: 4.3!4 Sekotong. <ondang. Bayan.
Jediri
3. Lombok
engah
!.42! 3.::: 14.432 Donggat. %raya. 6est %raya.
%raya Barat /aya. Lucky. %ujut
4. 8ast
Lombok
!.14: !.::: ;;2 %ringgabaya. &ikmel
L"2,"/
Is+an.

11*65
6

1&*20
1
21*&65
ource1 N"B Provincial /griculture !2ice P) ,igures
rounded
*orn as $ell as soybeans. its develo"ment "otential is also
s"read in three districts. namely 6est Lombok. *entral Lombok
and 8ast Lombok. *orn develo"ment "otential area in Lombok
Island -B is as #ollo$sN
21
Agriculture Sector
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Ta,+e 2.1 %otential /evelo"ment o# 0ai1e in -B Lombok
Island
P

3tili1ation
(ha)
/evelo"ment center (Sub)
Lhn
J'<
Lhn
S$h
1. Jota
0ataram
EE EE ; EE
2. 6est
Lombok
!.4;! 4.::: !.224 <ro$led. Sekotong. Jediri. <unung
Sari. Bayan. +eaven. Juri"an
3. Lombok
engah
4.37: !.::: 2.:4! Donggat. %ringgarata
4. 8ast
Lombok
4.!41
12.::
:
9.794 Sambelia. %eringgabaya.
6anasaba. &ikmel dsan S$ela
L"2,"/
Is+an.

01*3'
1

01*66
6
&1*216
ource1 0e%artment o' /griculture& in 3445 P) ,igures
rounded
he "otential develo"ment and e="loitation o# %eanut s"read in
every district $ith varying "roductivity de"ending on suitability
o# land. soil #ertility. irrigation and $eather su""ort at the time
$orking on it. %eanut develo"ment "otential can be seen in the
#ollo$ing tableN
Ta,+e 2.3 %otential %eanut %engembagan in -B
/istrict %otential (ha) P 3tili1ation
(ha)
/evelo"ment center (Sub)
Land Lh.
22
Agriculture Sector
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J'< 'ice
1. Jota
0ataram
EE EE 141 *akranegara
2. 6est
Lombok
7.92! 2.::: 13.!!; *a"e. <anga. -armada. <n.Sari.
"arrots and Jediri
3. Lombok
engah
1.1:: EE ;.743 %ringgarata. Donggat
4. 8ast
Lombok
1.!97 1.::: 994 %ringgabaya. 6anasaba. &ikmel
Lombok
Island
4.!11 3.::: 22.32!
ource1 /griculture 0e%artment& 3445 P) ,igures rounded
Other commodity cro"s develo"ed in the island o# Lombok is the
green beans $ith a "otential develo"ment area can be seen in
the #ollo$ing tableN
Ta,+e 2.4 %otential 0ung /evelo"ment in Lombok Island
/istrict %otential (ha) P 3tili1ation
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
Lhn.
Jrg
Lh.
S$h
1. Jota
0ataram
EE EE 37 *akranegara
2. 6est Lombok 39: 1.::: 1.;!1 Jediri. gro$led. Sheets.
Sekotong
3. Lombok
engah
!:: 2.::: !.142 Donggat. %raya. %raya Barat
/aya
4. 8ast Lombok 4!3 3.::: 1.424 %ringgabaya. Selong.
&ikmel
23
Agriculture Sector
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L"2,"/ Is+an. &0*344 11*666 '3*&'3
aking into account 4 ty"es o# commodity cro"s (soybeans. corn.
"eanuts and green beans) that can be cultivated in the second
season (02) a#ter rice in irrigated "addy and rain#ed #armers
$ill actually choose one o# these commodities based on land
suitability. $ater availability and $eather su""ort. In the rainy
season can also be cultivated. es"ecially in areas that are
relatively less rain#all. but testing needs to be done through an
intensive action research in coordination and collaboration
among institutions and related agencies.
1.6.3 +olticulture %otential
+orticulture commodities are grou"ed into t$o major grou"s
based on the #unction o# #ood grou"s and nonE#ood grou"s (art).
*ategori1ed by ty"e into three major grou"s. namely commodity
vegetables and C or s"ices. #ruit commodities and commodity
ornamental "lants. In this study #ocuses on t$o grou"s o#
commodities namely vegetables and #ruits because these grou"s
commonly cultivated in irrigated rice land and rain$ater. so that
in "engusahaannya need to consider the $eather and climatic
#actors. 6hile #or grou"s o# ornamental "lants can be gro$n
$ithout irrigation in#rastructure needs such as these cro"s.
Based on land suitability. onion commodities can be cultivated in
almost all areas Lombok -B. but the develo"ment o# more
intensive and "roductive cultivated by #armers in 8ast Lombok
regency to Lombok. Sumba$a. $hile in many develo"ed in Bima.
24
Agriculture Sector
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he "otential develo"ment area o# onion can be seen in the
#ollo$ing tableN
Ta,+e 2.5 %otential area o# land use and develo"ment o# red
onion
P
3tili1ation P
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
Lhn
J'<
Lhn
S$h
1. Jota
0ataram
EE EE EE
2. 6est
Lombok
294 2.::: 294 Bayan. <8'3-<
3. Lombok
engah
19 EE EE
4. 8ast
Lombok
1.71! 2.::: 1.71! &ikmel. Sembalun.
%ringgabaya.
6anasaba
L"2,"/
Is+an.
1*513 '*666 1*455
he table illustrates that the develo"ment o# red onion largest
commodity in 8ast Lombok regency because re@uirements are
gro$ing onions agronomist su""orted by land suitability. soil
ty"e and $eather. 'ed onion is a vegetable commodity risk and
highly vulnerable to climate change. es"ecially the e=cessive
rain#all. 3sually rain#all conditions also aAect the cycle o# "ests.
so the "lant is very susce"tible to "ests and diseases. here#ore.
the #armers take into account the "ossibility o# rain i# it is going
to "lant onions.
25
Agriculture Sector
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Other horticulture commodities is %9$+$. Based on the suitability
o# land and gro$ing conditions agronomist. *hili develo"ment
e=ist throughout the district on the island o# Lombok -B. *hili
is the horticulture commodity ty"e herbs that are o#ten
e="erienced "rice ?uctuations. &t times the "roduction de>cit
(su""ly decreases) then the "urchase "rice at the retail level is
very e="ensive to mencai 1! to 2: thousand "er kilogram and
vice versa.
2<16 Ta,+e areaHs "otential and land use develo"ment o#
chili
/istrict %otential P) (+a) 3tili1ation P)
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
Lhn.
/ry
Lhn.
'ice
1. Jota 0ataram EE EE EE
2. 6est Lombok 1.3:: !:: 1.3:: Jediri. gro$led.
-armada
3. Lombok
engah
927 EE 927 %ringgarata. Donggat
4. 8ast Lombok ;.3;4 1.::: ;.3;4 Selong. 0asbagek
P. L"2,"/ 10*122 &*'&1 10*122
+orticulture commodities to be one commodity in the 6est
Lombok district is ty"ical o# Lombok $atercress. *ommodity
vegetables have in the /istrict o# 6est Lombok and 0ataram city
o# cultivated rice >eld by using the technical ber"engairan
(available $ater throughout the year). <enerally districts
Lombok Island has a large "otential #or cultivation o# kale. such
as in 8ast Lombok /istrict. es"ecially in the areas irrigated
26
Agriculture Sector
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technis 'ull. +o$ever. the "roductivity level o# each district is
diAerent and taste diAerent. too kangkungnya.
1.6.4 F!u$ts
2arious kinds o# #ruits have high economic value on the island o#
Lombok in the #orm o# land cultivated in the garden and yard
utili1ation. such as mango. rambutan. mangosteen. durian.
sa"odilla. bananas and "inea""les. 8ach o# these commodities
has the "otential area in Lombok Island. ,or e=am"le. the
develo"ment "otential o# mangoes is throughout the district on
the island o# Lombok. here is most "otential area in South
Lombok. but not used o"timally. 0ango "roduction in 2::3
reached 34:.1:9 tons $ith a total harvested area o# 14.!14.:!
ha. 6ide s"read o# the "otential develo"ment o# mangoes "er
district and the center can be seen in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2<11 %otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability
0ango
/istrict %otential
(ha) P)

3tili1ation
(ha)
Sentra (Jec.)
1. Jota
0ataram
EE 37!
2. 6est
Lombok
4.1:; 4.1:; Bayan. <anga. -armada. Jediri.
Sekotong
3. Lombok
engah
4.97! 1.3;9 Batukliang. Jo"ang. 0antang.
%ringgarata. Donggat and %ujut
4. 8ast
Lombok
3.:2; 1.!;: %ringgabaya. Sambelia. &ikmel.
S3J&03LI&. Sakra Jeruak
27
Agriculture Sector
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P. L"2,"/ 11*555 3*'26
& commodity #ruit o# high economic value that the majority
cultivated in 6est Lombok is the mangosteen. he "otential
develo"ment area o# 8ast London *ommodity +a 4;4: but
reached a ne$ area o# 42.:: ha utili1ed. he s"read o# a
"otential develo"ment area "er district can be seen in the
#ollo$ing table.
0angosteen
/istrict %otential
(ha) P)
3tili1ation
(ha) P)
Sentra (Sub)
1. Jota
0ataram
11 EE EE
2. 6est
Lombok
12: 91 Lingsar. -armada and
Batu Layar
3. Lombok
engah
4.7:: 2 Batukliang. %ringgarata
4. 8ast
Lombok
!4 4 Ivory Sikur and 0ontong
NTB '*356 52
'ambutan is one o# the commodity #ruits o# high economic value
that is seasonal. so the selling "rice at the level o# #armers ('arm
gate) and the retailer is very volatile. %engusahaannya can be
done in the garden area on a large scale. but smallEscale
cultivated as garden "lants. & "otential area o# commodity
28
Agriculture Sector
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develo"ment in the /istrict rambutan is the 6est Lombok.
*entral Lombok. but the "otential area 6est Lombok has sei1ed
the o""ortunity $ith an o"timal because this area com"atible
$ith land suitability. he s"read o# "otential areas and
"roduction centers can be seen in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2<1& %otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability
'ambutan
/istrict %otential
P)
(ha)
3tili1ation P)
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
1. Jota
0ataram
17 1:9 ,orm o# garden "lants
2. 6est
Lombok
1.33! 1.;12 -armada. Lingsar.
<unungsari
3. Lombok
engah
1.4:: 14: %ringgarata. Batukliang
4. 8ast Lombok 2!3 74 Sikur. 0tg. Ivory erara
NTB 1&*114 2*635
Based on the "otential area in 6est Lombok /istrict 133! area.
but used by the "lanters $as 1;12 ha. his illustrates that the
6est Lombok district has a land suitability that is suitable #or the
develo"ment o# rambutan. 'ambutan harvest season is generally
#rom mid ,ebruary until &"ril $ith highly ?uctuating "rices. It is
estimated that the commodity rambutan not get the o"timum
value #or "roducers to sell only in the #orm o# #resh #ruit. In 6est
Lombok no "rocessing or canning industries rambutan #ruit to
29
Agriculture Sector
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enhance com"etitive advantage (com%etitive advantage) and a
signi>cant added value.
Other #ruit commodities o# high economic value develo"ed on
the island o# Lombok is bro$n. Sa"odilla develo"ment largely
im"lemented in the district o# 6est Lombok. *entral Lombok and
8ast Lombok $ith the s"read o# "otential areas o# districts and
centers o# "roduction can be seen in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2<1' %otential and /evelo"ment o# Land Suitability
*hryso"hyllum
/istrict %otential
P)
(ha)
3tili1ation P)
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
1. Jota
0ataram
EE 11 EE
2. 6est
Lombok
121 121 -armada. Lingsar. gro$led.
Bayan
3. Lombok
engah
1.4!: 42 %ringgarata. Donggat. %ujut
4. 8ast
Lombok
1:; 4! %ringgabaya. 0asbagik and
Lb. +ajj
P. L"2,"/ 1*134 215
he table above sho$s that the utili1ation o# the "otential area
#or sa"odilla #ruit is still very lo$ o# about 17.:3L. $hich is very
suitable "lant cultivated in several subdistricts in 6est Lombok.
either commercially cultivated in the garden as $ell as
conditioning "lant in the garden.
30
Agriculture Sector
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*ommodity bananas e=ist throughout the district on the island
o# Lombok $ith various ty"es such as Je"ok Banana. Banana
dime. Banana Jing. <reen Banana. Banana 0ilk. Banana
Ja"endis and other ty"es. 8ndemic areas o# "otential
develo"ment o# banana in each district can be seen in the
#ollo$ing table.
Banana
/istrict %otential
P)
(ha)
3tili1ation P)
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
1. Jota
0ataram
EE 294
2. 6est
Lombok
2.912 11.:1; &ll /istrict
3. Lombok
engah
1.!44 !.:23 Jo"ang. Batukliang.
%ringgarata.
4. 8ast Lombok !.:42 19.;;! %ringga Baya. Sukamulya.
Lb +aji
L"2,"/ Is+an. 5*''4 &0*655
3tili1ation o# the "otential #or cultivating bananas in each
district is greater than the estimated "otential. his illustrates
that the suitability o# land #or banana "lants on the island o#
Lombok is "er#ect. Since 1444. the banana "lants on the island
o# Lombok $ere attacked by a disease that resulted in a
decreased @uantity and @uality o# banana "roduction in Lombok.
31
Agriculture Sector
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*ommodity "inea""les are not only used #or the consum"tion o#
#resh #ruit. but can be used #or syru". jam (hours) #or
kom"lement bread consum"tion. *ommodity "inea""le on the
island o# Lombok has not had an o"timum value #or #ruit
"inea""le #ruit sold in s"indles. he availability o# "otential area
#or develo"ment is the largest "inea""le in *entral Lombok
regency. but good enough develo"ment in 8ast Lombok regency.
es"ecially in Sub S3J&03LI& and 0asbagik. he s"read o# a
"otential area "er district can be seen in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2<11 acreage and luaas %otential Land /evelo"ment
Suitability %inea""le in Lombok Island
/istrict %otential
P)
(ha)
3tili1ation P)
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
1. Jota
0ataram
EE 1 EE
2. 6est
Lombok
; 4.:72 <unungsari. Batu Layar.
3. Lombok
engah
11:.1;1 1.474 %ringgarata. Batukliang.
4. 8ast Lombok 2.99! 9.4:4 0asbagik.
%ringgaselaSukamulya.
L"2,"/
Is+an.
11&*61& 1'*'&1
he table above illustrates that the develo"ment o# a very ra"id
"inea""le is in 8ast Lombok 'egency area indicated by the use
o# "inea""le "lant that is much larger than the "otential area.
6hile develo"ment is not o"timal in the district o# *entral
32
Agriculture Sector
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lombok area marked by the use o# a smaller than the "otential o#
e=isting acreage.
/urian is one commodity -B Lombok Island. In -armada
district o# 6est Lombok can be #ound a kind o# ty"ical durian
0urian Presak called *ombok. /urian this ty"e has color. aroma
and taste (taste) is s"eci>c. so that the commodity has been
determined to be a national $inner. he develo"ment is highly
"ros"ective and %ro7table in -armada district. /istrict Lingsar.
<unung Sari and /istrict o# 6est Lombok regency and district o#
-orth Lombok Bayan. he s"read o# a "otential area "er district
and develo"ment centers can be seen in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e 2<13 and "otential area o# Land /evelo"ment Suitability
/urian in Lombok
/istrict %otential P)
(ha)
3tili1ation P)
(ha)
Sentra (Sub)
1. Jota
0ataram
EE EE EE
2. 6est
Lombok
791 2:3 -armada. Lingsar.
<unung Sari
3. Lombok
engah
1.279 !7 Batukliang.
4. 8ast Lombok 1:1 23 Sikur. %ringgasela.
&ikmel
33
Agriculture Sector
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L"2,"/
Is+an.
2*606 242
he table above illustrates that the land use "otential #or durian
is still #ar lo$er than the "otential o# e=isting land. /urian tree
commonly #ound in the garden close to the mountains as in the
-armada region. Sesaot. Jekait. Lingsar and Suranadi 6est
Lombok regency. Similarly. the commodity #ruits rambutan and
others. including durian #ruit "roduction is seasonal. so the "rice
is very volatile because o# durian #ruit sold as #resh #ruit in the
conventional s"indles in the general market or s"eci>c "laces
easily accessible by consumers.
Ta,+e 2.1 %otensi dan Jesesuaian Lahan %engembangan 0angga
Jabu"aten
%otensi
(ha) P)
%eman#aatan
(ha)
Sentra (Jec.)
1. Jota 0ataram E 37!
2. Lombok Barat 4.1:; 4.1:;
Bayan. <angga.
-armada. Jediri.
Sekotong
3. Lombok
engah
4.97! 1.3;9
Batukliang. Jo"ang.
0antang. %ringgarata.
Donggat dan %ujut
4. Lombok
imur
3.:2; 1.!;:
%ringgabaya. Sambelia.
&ikmel. Sukamulia.
Sakra Jeruak
P. L"2,"/ 11.555 3.'26
umber1 0inas Pertanian "anaman Pangan& 3445 P) &ngka
"embulatan
34
Agriculture Sector
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CHAPTER &. RESEARCH METHOD
1.7 *hronology o# hought and &nalysis ,rame$ork
his research is a mesoEscale study (-eso *evel tudy) a
studying the "henomenon and the vulnerability o# the
agricultural sector to climate change. &griculture is one o# the
most vulnerable sectors and "otentially aAected by climate
change. he study #ocused on analy1ing the im"act o# climate
change and climate variability. such as tem"erature and rain#all
"atterns change. both daily rain#all and monthly or yearly. as $ell
as increased #re@uency and intensity o# e=treme events (e#treme
events) such as La -ina and 8l -ino. Studied as"ect is the
danger (hazard), ie the "ossibility o# danger #rom climate
change such as failed crops and crop failure #or #ood cro"s
(8ood Cro%s)& vulnerability and risk levels "osed by climate
change is the decline in rice "lant "roductivity im"lications #or
the disru"tion resilience #ood. he results o# the study are
e="ected to be taken into consideration to "re"are guidelines #or
local action. es"ecially in im"lementing the relevant ada"tation
strategies.
&nalysis o# agricultural vulnerability to climate change leads to
sustainable agricultural develo"ment through im"roving the
com"arative advantage (com%arative advantage) and com"etitive
advantage (com%etitive advantage). Sustainable agricultural
develo"ment in rural areas is not only oriented to local
em"loyment. but more oriented to increase value added and
income agrarian society by ma=imi1ing the utili1ation o# natural
resources in the #orm o# agricultural land through the
35
Agriculture Sector
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im"lementation o# ada"tation strategies to climate change on the
island o# Lombok -usa enggara Barat.
o assess and analy1e the im"act o# climate change on the
agricultural sector to climate change is necessary and su""orted
by monitoring climate "redictions more accurate by using valid
data. here#ore. this study is not an inde"endent study
(se"arately). but a com%rehensive study and research is called
%hase se9uences #or the analysis is su""orted by several other
studies in de"th. here are t$o inEde"th studies that su""ort this
study. namely (1) study on *limate %rojections #or the study o#
agricultural vulnerability to climate change conducted by e="erts
climatology (Climatologist)& (2) the results o# a study conducted
by irrigation e="erts. namely the im"act o# climate change on
$ater sector (,ater balance) and related &da"tation Strategies.
Based on in#ormation and rain#all data. the ty"e o# agricultural
land use. slo"e (slo%e)& "o"ulation data (demogra"hics).
community $el#are. the analysis o# vulnerability and ada"tation
to climate change. the im"act on the agricultural sector on the
island o# Lombok are sho$n in the #ollo$ing ?o$ chart.
Ta,+e &.1 $ork?o$ vulnerability assessment and analysis o# the
im"act o# climate change

-o

%roced
ure
/ata and descri"tion o# activities
1 In"ut y"e o# agricultural land use. rain#all data. demogra"hics.
slo"e. $el#are. #ood commodity "roduction data. area
harvested. the total area o# cro" #ailure in each district o#
each district
2 &nalysis o# "roduction data in each district. Pair,ise
36
Agriculture Sector
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%rocess com%arison& 0a""ing $ith <IS. ,inancial and economic
analysis #or the recommended cro% P).
3 8=odus he results o# "rediction. inter"retation o# the results o# the
analysis. ma""ing $ith <IS based on the justi>cation o# the
vulnerability o# each district. the "er#ormance o# #ood
balance (su%%ly& distribution. consum"tion)
4
%ur"ose
/e>ning vulnerable agricultural 1ones.
,ormulation o# ada"tation strategies based on the
:a(ard and 'isk #or sustainable agriculture by
a""lying "erinsi" management (ada"tation)
integrated.
he integration o# ada"tation strategies into
sustainable agricultural develo"ment "olicy ('%D0.
'%D%)
P) -ot done in this study
1.8 &griculture %roduction5s 'isk analysis &""roach e in
LombokE-B
Based on the nature and ty"es o# data and in#ormation collected
in the analytical a""roach used in this study is @uantitative and
@ualitative a""roach. he use o# t$o a""roaches aimed to assess
accurately the level o# vulnerability justi>es (ha(ard and risk) o#
climate change and alternative ada"tation strategies relevant
"roduction area in the develo"ment o# local @uali>ed
commodities. he reasons to use @uantitative and @ualitative
a""roaches in this studyN
karena hasil yang ditekankan dalam "enelitian ini adalah
lebih bersi#at deskri#ti# analitis yang berarti inter"retasi
terhada" isi yang dibuat dan disusun secara sistematik dan
menyeluruhI
37
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
because the results are em"hasi1ed in this study is more
analytical deskri#ti# meaning inter"retation o# the content
created and arranged in a systematic and com"rehensive
to com"lete the variable restriction in the #ormulation o#
a""ro"riate ada"tation strategies that do not occur in a mall
ada%tation o# local action in the >eld.
'isk o# #ailing or #ailed "lanting and harvest in agricultural areas
vulnerable to the threat o# climate change on the island o#
Lombok re@uire a""ro"riate analysis a""roach and shar". he
results o# the analysis $ill be taken into consideration in the
"re"aration o# guidelines #or local ada"tation. here#ore. to
"revent sho""ing mall in the >eld o# ada"tation is necessary to
analy1e the @uantitative and @ualitative data is valid and
accurate in accordance $ith local conditions $hich can be
sources o# trust. 'ight or not the results o# the analysis de"ends
on the suitability o# analytical tools. and kevalidan com"leteness
o# data (in#ormation) is analy1ed. here#ore. agricultural data
needed #or analysis needs to be validated and cross checked to
avoid the mall ada"tation because data analysis is less "recise.
1.9 y"es. Source and /ata *ollection 0ethod
y"es and sources o# data are analy1ed in the study o# the
agricultural sector vulnerability to climate change is o#
secondary data and "rimary data. Secondary data came #rom
/istrict &gricultural OAice documents C *ity. -B %rovince
&gricultural /e"artment. B%S and agencies associated $ith the
develo"ment o# agricultural "roduction areas in the island o#
Lombok -B. 6hile "rimary data collected #rom key in'ormants
38
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
o# the "arties such as rice #armers on the island o# Lombok -B
and the chairman or the "arties com"etent to handle matters o#
climate and agricultural "roduction at district level and
"rovincial levels. 'es"ondents and key in'ormants involved in
the vulnerability assessment is com"osed o# the oAicials or staA.
grou" leaders and #armers $ho have mastered the conditions
and "roblems in the >eld. he key in'ormants in the oAice are the
+ead o# the %roduction and %lanning in the /e"artment o#
&griculture &nimal +usbandry *ounty C *ity o# Lombok Island.
and 6est -usa enggara %rovincial &gricultural /e"artment.
0ethods and data collection techni@ues used method o#
observation. intervie,s& and documentation methods.
1. Observation methods (direct observation) can be inter"reted
as the observation and recording to record systematically the
situation o# sym"toms that a""eared in the object o# research.
In a""lying the method o# observation can be made directly
or indirectly. Observations made in this study is the direct
observation $ith res"ect to a #actual "ro>le o# agricultural
commodity "roduction areas in the res"ective districts in 3
counties and 1 city on the island o# Lombok -B %rovince.
6hile no direct observation is done using the hel" o# a digital
camera to record the audio visual observation o# each object
in the >eld related to real conditions as a result o# drought in
the region leading commodity "roduction on the island o#
Lombok -BI
2. In+0e%th Intervie, conducted as a con>rmation o# the data
and in#ormation are still doubt#ul and re@uires clarity #rom
the "arties o# the res"ondents and key in'ormants. In+de%th
intervie,s conducted on res"ondents and key in'ormants
,ere selected that have the "otential to have data and
39
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
additional in#ormation as con>rmation materials. such as
"ersonnel at B0<. &griculture and Livestock. #arm grou"
leaders and the +ead OAice Branch (J*/) local.
3. In+0e%th Intervie, conducted as a con>rmation o# the data
and in#ormation are still doubt#ul and re@uires clarity #rom
the "arties o# the res"ondents and key in'ormants. In+de%th
intervie,s conducted on res"ondents and key in'ormants
,ere selected that have the "otential to have data and
additional in#ormation as con>rmation materials. such as
"ersonnel at B0<. &griculture and Livestock. #arm grou"
leaders and the +ead OAice Branch (J*/) local.
1.1:/ata &nalysis 0ethod
0ethod o# data analysis are closely linked $ith the ty"e o# data
obtained and the nature o# research. Because o# this research is
e="loratory deskri#ti# the data analysis is inductive data analysis.
the ?o$ o# thought $ith the conclusion o# the s"eci>c data to be
dra$n general conclusions. *an be e="lained theoretically that
inductive thinking Foriginated #rom the #acts o# the "articular.
concrete events. and then #rom the #acts or events that had
dra$n a "articular generali1ations that have common
characteristics.
Inductive method used in this study aims to dra$ conclusions on
the "henomena and elements o# change o# climate and climate
variability are illustrated by the data collected through
observation. intervie$s. and documentation. and ma%%ing $ith
<IS. he results o# the analysis inter"reted and generali1ed.
namely the conclusion to the general conclusion. hus. it is clear
that the inductive method aims to assess the em"irical #acts
40
Agriculture Sector
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#ound in the >eld $ho then carried out a cross check (matched
$ith the real conditions in the >eld). he ne=t ste" a#ter the data
is collected and analy1ed data "rocessing method and Pair,ise
Com%arison using <IS "rogram "ackage #or s"atial data analysis.
&s described in "oint 2.1 that the as"ects that $ere e=amined is
the "ossibility o# ha1ards (Hazard), vulnerability
(Vulnerability) and the level of risk "osed. 2ulnerability is the
ability o# an individual or grou" o# communities. communities in
antici"ation. tackling. to "reserve and save themselves #rom the
im"act o# ha1ards (ha(ard) naturally. 2ulnerability is al$ays
changing along $ith changes in socioEeconomic conditions and
conditions in the surrounding environment. 2ulnerability can be
#ormulated sim"ly as #ollo$sN
2ulnerability Q 8="osure = Sensitivity C *a"acity &da"tation or
<eneral ,rame$ork o# StudyN ' Q + = 2
'isk =R; Q +a1ard =H; = 2ulnerability =V;
' Q risk; + Q :a(ard (+a1ard)I 2 Q Vulnerability
(2ulnerabilities)
8 Q 8="osure. 8 Q # (irrigated rice >elds. dry land
including rain#ed rice. mi=ed rain#ed and $et land).
41
Planting failure
Harvest failure
1. Land Use
2. Sloe !Sloe"
3. #elfare
4. $ainfall distri%ution
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
S Q sensitivity. #or e=am"le slo%e (slo"e)
&* (/da%tive Ca%acity) Q *a"acity &da"tation. such as social
$el#are
erminology #or '. +. 2. 8. S and &* re#er to the terminology
used by the I%**.
F$u!e &.1 belo$ is a ?o$ diagram o# data analysis "rocedures
to assess the "ossibility o# ha1ards (+a1ard) and the risk "osed
by climate change.
Vu+ne!a,$+$t- =V;
F$u!e &.1 /iagram o# the "otential ?o$ analysis. ha(ard
and vulnerability o""ortunities agricultural sector
to climate change
42
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
3.4.1. +a1ard
<iven that the island o# Lombok is one o# the areas o# agriculture
as a contributor to the national rice stocks. but this region did
not esca"e the threat o# drought and ?ooding as a result o# the
rainy season o# uncertainty. so that "otentially dangerous
occurrence (ha(ard) in the #orm o# #ailed cro"s and the rice
harvest and the risk reduction "roduction and "roductivity o#
#ood security disturbing. 'e#ers to the habit o# "lanting "attern
and range o# riceE"lanting "eriod o# time during the monsoon
(,et season) on the island o# Lombok -B $hich generally lasts
#rom midE-ovember until ,ebruary C 0arch. so in this analysis
there are t$o ha(ard (danger) that $ere e=amined. :a(ard o#
he >rst is the 7"tent$a+ 8"! 8a$+e. %!"7s and the second is t9e
7"tent$a+ %!"7 8a$+u!es #or the commodity rice.
he data used in the analysis is the amount o# $ater available to
be a""roached by calculating the <ater Balance calculation "otal
.un !2 ('O). but because the data is in"ut rain#all data and
tem"erature used are only sourced #rom the station 1 station in
the air"ort Sela"arang &m"enan. the results obtained do not
sho$ too much diAerence s"atially.
:a(ard analysis is based on the #ollo$ing assum"tionsN T9at t9e
%9an%e "8 a .$saste! >$++ 9a77en $n t9e e#ent "8 e?t!e2e
%"n.$t$"ns* "! $n "t9e! >"!.s an une?7e%te. %"n.$t$"n. &s
a rule these e=treme conditions is a condition $hich is no$ the
baseline %"n.$t$"ns =1511 t" 2663;. o do the analysis under
e=treme conditions can utili1e a method o# data distribution
Cummulative 8re9uency 0istribution (*/,).
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T9e 7"tent$a+ 8a$+u!e "8 7+ant$n $ill occur i# $ater
availability is too little. $hile the "lanting "eriod o# -ovember to
,ebruary. the "lanting done in early -ovember to midE-ovember.
here#ore. to determine the "otential cro" #ailure analysis
"er#ormed #or the minimum e=treme o# $ater availability in
-ovember. %otential ha1ards $ill be lo$er rice "roductivity.
P"tent$a+ 8a$+u!e ,unt$n =7!e2"!.$a+; $ill occur i# the
availability o# $ater that is too little. $hile the "lanting "eriod o#
-ovember to ,ebruary. the "remordial occurred in the mid to
late /ecember. here#ore. to determine the "otential #ailure
bunting made #or minimum e=treme analysis o# $ater availability
in /ecember. %otential ha1ards $ill reduce the "roductivity o#
rice.
P"tent$a+ %!"7 8a$+u!e due to rice stems rebahnya due heavy
rain and strong $inds and ?ooding. +o$ever. in this analysis
$as not carried out an analysis o# the $ind. only the amount o#
rain that occurred. %lanting "eriod took "lace in late ,ebruary
and 0arch. but generally carried out in ,ebruary. here#ore. the
"otential #or cro" #ailure analysis "er#ormed #or e=treme $et
conditions on the total run-of in ,ebruary.
3.4.2 2ulnerability
In this study it is assumed there are 4 #actors that in?uence the
vulnerability o# agriculture. namelyN &gricultural Land y"e.
otal %o"ulation. -umber Jeluraga Less %reE%ros"erous and
%ros"erous. slo"e (slo%e)& and 'ain#all distribution. 2ulnerability
in this analysis is #ormulated as #ollo$s
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V @ AA =a
$;
B CB =,
$;
B C =%
$;
B D =.
$;
B ...
/escri"tionN A* C* and is the value o# vulnerability to
vektorial com"onent kom"oenen other vulnerabilities. his value
is obtained by making com"arisons bet$een the com"onents
(%air,ise com%aration)& ie
&. B. *. / Q a com"onent o# vulnerability
a
i.
b
i.
c
i.
d
i
Q $eighting coeAicient data classes in each
com"onent o# vulnerability. his value is obtained based on the
method o# ranking (ranking method). his ranking method is
used to a""ro=imate the value o# $eighting bet$een the data
classes. he $eight classes bet$een actual data can also be
calculated by an em"irical a""roach. but because o# the limited
data that can be used as a re#erence then the resulting diAiculty
o# doing em"irical a""roach accurately.
Ranking Method is the sim"lest method to assess the $eight o#
interests by giving the rank in order o# im"ortance. here are
t$o kinds o# ranking systems used. namelyN
1. traight .anking& namely (1 Q 0ost im"ortant. 2 Q second
im"ortant. etc.)
2. Inverse .ank& namely (1 Q least im"ortant. 2 Q second
does not matter. etc.). &#ter a given ranking criteria. then
the ne=t ste" is to "er#orm some "rocedures to make a
numerical $eighting o# the e=isting ratings in#ormation.
One a""roach used in this study is to rank+sum $ith the
#ollo$ing #ormula
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1
( 1)
j
j
k
n r
w
n r
+
=
+
/escri"tionN
6
j
Q $eight #or criterion j normali1ation
n Q number o# criteria are taken into account.
r
j
Q rank "osition criteria
hen. as the ranking ethod is then #or$arded by !air"ise
#oparison$ Saaty (149:) has develo"ed this method to obtain
the matri= ratio in the conte=t o# the interests o# the intensity o#
the search elements in a s"eci>c data grou". his develo"ed
method involves %air,ise com"arisons to create a matri= ratio
(0lac@e$ski. 1444).
%rocessing data are using %air,ise methods through several
"hases. namely decom"osition. com"arative com"arison.
"riorities and logic synthesis consistency.
a. %ecoposition
he >rst stage is to describe a "roblem that $ill be broken do$n
into elements o# the builder. /ecom"osition o# these elements
aAects the accuracy level that $ill be "roducedI the more detail
the accuracy o# solving the "roblem more accurately.
b. #oparative #oparative
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his stage is to >nd the intensity values bet$een the elements
are com"ared "air$ise. his assessment $as conducted in the
#orm o# the matri=. &s has been stated "reviously. the matri= in
@uestion is "air$ise. In making the necessary justi>cation #or
"eo"le $ho have a thorough understanding o# the relevance o#
the elements involved (e&pert 'udgent)$ his assessment is
highly subjective. de"ending on the ca"acity o# the "eo"le doing
the assessment. his method is based on consistency. so the
value used in search eigent 7!$"!$t- #e%t"!.
he most im"ortant stage o# the %air,ise com"arisons are "aired
com"arison assessment $hich is basically a com"arison bet$een
the com"onents o# interest rates in a level o# hierarchy.
&ssessment is done by com"aring the number o# combinations o#
e=isting elements at each hierarchy so that @uantitative
assessment can be done to kno$ the si1e o# the $eight o# each
element. Saaty (149:) has develo"ed a "aired com"arison scale
table as #ollo$sN
Ta,+e &.2 *om"arison Scale (Saaty. 149:)
Interest Level /e>nitions
1 8@ually im"ortant
3 one element more im"ortant than the
other 8lement
! One o# the 8lement is #ar more im"ortant
than the other
; One o# the element is very im"ortant
com"aring to other element
4 he other 8lement is #ar more and very
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im"ortant that the other
2.4.7.9 value bet$een t$o values stand in one
"osition
he o""osite o#
these values
In contrast to the value they $ill value the
o""osite o# o""osite value egN ij Q ji Q 3
then
c. P!$"!$t- S-nt9es$s
%air$ise matri= in the "re"aration. early stage is to determine
the intensity o# interest bet$een the t$o things are com"ared.
his stage is kno$n as synthesis o# "riority. ie a stage to >nd
eigen vector o# each "air$ise com"arison matri= #or a local
"riority. o obtain a global "riority that should be a synthesis
bet$een local "riorities.
.. L"$% C"ns$sten%-
*onsistency meant here is "utting something in accordance
$ith the "osition and relevance based on criteria that have
been determined. he "rocesses o# "air$ise matri= $ith the
"riority vector #or the "air$ise com"arison matri= are named
by seeking 8igen value o# the "air$ise matri=.
CHAPTER '. ANAL)SIS OF HA(ARDS* VULNERIBILIT)
AND RISKS AGRICULTURAL SECTOR CLIMATE CHANGE
&nalysis and discussion #ocused on the 4 (#our) as"ects.
res"ectively. and interconnected $ith one another. $hich limits
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understanding o# climate change. ha1ards (:a(ard)& vulnerability
(Vulnerability) and risk in the agricultural sector. +a1ard
analysis (:a(ard) #ocused on the "otential #or #ailure in the range
o# "lanted rice "addy #arming in time #rom -ovember to
,ebruary C 0arch. hen. #ailing "remordial (#ailed bunting)
because o# $ater shortage (drought)I danger to the ?o$ering
stage ("ollination) caused by the #re@uence and @uantity o#
rain#all and e=cessive $ind and cro" #ailure because o# the
#re@uency and @uantity o# rain#all is very much to$ards the
harvest. he ne=t discussion is continued $ith the vulnerability
and risk reduction in "roduction or "roductivity that $ould
inter#ere $ith "otential #ood security conditions.
4.1. 3nderstanding *limate *hange and Its Im"act On
&griculture
*limatology e="erts argue that climate change is the average
change o# climate elements (such as an increase in tem"erature.
changes in rain#all "atterns and $ind). and changes in climate
variability. *hanges in average climate and climate variability
can occur in tandem. One e=am"le o# the average change in
climate is the tendency o# changes in average tem"erature or the
tendency o# changes in rain#all amount o# average monthly or
annual average in a "articular area. such as on the island o#
Lombok -B. Increasing the tem"erature o# the earthHs sur#ace
$ill have an im"act on climate change because rising
tem"eratures could increase eva"oration resulting in increased
$ater va"or in atmos"here. his $ater va"or $ill be the source
o# rain. but not al$ays the case because o# increased eva"oration
$ill also cause a certain "lace to dry #aster so that e="erienced
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drought. he average changes in climate are o#ten ignored
because the amount is relatively small. but in the long term. the
magnitude o# change $ill increasingly be #elt and the im"act
clearly. 3nlike the case $ith changes in climate variability can
be e="lained as a change in the intensity and #re@uency o#
e=treme events (eg 8l -ino and La -ina). ,or e=am"le. rain#all
events are #ar above normal during La -ina occurs. or drought
events occurred during the 8l -ino that "otentially dangerous
(:a(ard) in the sector o# #ood cro"s (rice. "ulses. horticulture)
and seasonal cro"s such as tobacco virginia .
Based on the understanding o# climate change at the to" then
there are t$o eAects that change im"acts that need to be the
#ocus o# attention. $hich is due to climate variability and change
due to changes in average climate. he im"act o# climate change
is o#ten "erceived and e="erienced as a disaster in the island o#
Lombok is the result o# a change in climate variability. &n
e=am"le is the occurrence o# major ?oods in ,ebruary 2::4 as a
result o# an increase in intensity and #re@uency o# e=treme
rain#all. #ailing cro"s at the beginning o# the "lanting season due
to lo$ rain#all. cro" #ailure due to drought and C or because the
rain#all is very large at the time o# rice "lants in the ?o$ering
"hase ("ollination). Other im"acts may also be a landslide
disasters (erosion) due to the #re@uency and @uantity o# rain#all is
very large. and #orest >res in the dry season is "rolonged.
he im"act o# climate change as a result o# changes in climate
variability can be "erceived as real by the "eo"le $ho
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e="erienced disaster almost every year. 6hile the im"act as a
result o# changes in average climate is relatively diAicult to #eel
because o# the changes are relatively small. Sea level rise (ea
*evel .ise) as a result o# global $arming ()lobal ,arming) can
cause sea $ater to agricultural areas in coastal areas or the
beach. I# this occurs then the chance the ?ooded small islands
by sea $ater is very high. Similarly. coastal areas such as
Lombok Island in *a"e *oral area &m"enan. Jerandangan
Senggigi. and some coastal areas in 8ast Lombok and
agricultural lands $ill be threatened lo$land inundated by sea
$ater "ermanently.
'egionally (regional scale). the im"act is o#ten e="erienced by
the occurrence o# natural resource degradation is de"endent on
the climate. $hich aAects sectors other economic develo"ment.
,or e=am"le. the average annual rain#all in some districts in the
area o# Lombok Island has increased. $hile in some other
districts has decreased. and during the rainy season or dry
season shi#t. his raises the "roblem o# increasing $ater de>cit
because o# reduced some sources o# s"rings. he im"act o# these
changes are due s"eci>cally to the agriculture sector is the shi#t
o# the rainy season and short rainy season. resulting in
disru"tion o# availability o# irrigation $ater (,ater balance)
because the $ater $ould be a de>cit #or the irrigated rice >eld.
&s #or the rainE#ed rice area in the region such as South Lombok
#ailure threatened "lant and C or #ailed cro"s. he result is the
"roduction o# #oodstuAs. es"ecially rice that $ould be threatened
#ood security $ill be disturbed.
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4.2. +a1ard &nalysis in the &griculture Sector
Bahaya (ha(ard) yang dimaksudkan "ada sektor "ertanian adalah
bahaya gagal tanam dan bahaya gagal "anen bagi lahan
"ertanian yang rentan terhada" "erubahan iklim. sehingga
berdam"ak terhada" "enurunan "roduksi dan menimbulkan
risiko terganggunya ketahanan "/anger (ha(ard) is intended at
the agricultural sector is the danger o# #ailed cro"s and the
danger o# #ailed cro"s #or agricultural land is vulnerable to
climate change. so the im"act on "roduction decline and "ose a
risk o# disru"tion o# #ood security. :a(ard analysis carried out by
taking the case o# rice. By considering the time s"an o# rice
cultivation on the island o# Lombok. the gro$th "hase o# "lanting
rice ("addy). and the "ossibility o# danger (ha(ard) then the
ha1ard analysis (ha(ard) is #ocused onN
1. "otential danger (ha(ard) #ailed cro"s.
2. "otential danger (ha(ard) o# #ailure in the bunting
("remordial).
3. "otential danger (ha(ard) in the "hase be#ore the rice
harvest.
:a(ard analysis is based on the assum"tion that the %9an%es "8
!$s/ >$++ "%%u! $n t9e e#ent "8 e?t!e2e %"n.$t$"ns* or in
other $ords. an une="ected condition. &s a rule these e=treme
conditions is a condition $hich is no$ t9e ,ase+$ne %"n.$t$"ns
=1511 t" 2663;. Based on statistical analysis in *ha"ter II
0ethodology then to analy1e these e=treme conditions can
utili1e a method o# data distribution Cummulative 8re9uency
0istribution (*/,). */, method is used to "redict "otential
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#ailure %lant :a(ard& namely 8=treme /ry In -ovember the */,
R:N1! (1!L). and :a(ard ,ailed $hile 'ice "remordial "hase
(bunting). the 8=treme /ry In /ecember the */, R:N1! (1!L) o#
both is as a result o# lack o# $ater. */, method is also used to
"redict "otential dangers (ha(ards) o# cro" #ailure due to
?ooding (#re@uency and @uantity o# rain#all e=cess) o# the B&S8/
O- +8 8=treme 6et conditions in ,ebruary at */,S :.9!
(9!L). &ny "otential danger (ha(ard) mentioned above can be
e="lained in the #ollo$ing discussion on "oints $ith "oints 4.2.1
to 4.2.4.
&gricultural "roduction can not be se"arated #rom the in?uence
o# climatic #actors #or agricultural "roduction has diAerent
characteristics in "lant "roduction ('actory). he main
characteristics o# agricultural "roduction is the "roduction o#
biologically "lace (biological %rocess) is based on natural
resources (Natural resources+based) $hich is seasonal
(seasonal). &griculture as a biological %rocess is human
intervention in the care o# animals (livestock and >sh) and ?ora
(seasonal cro"s and kno$ledge. "lantation cro"s and the
seasonal and annual cro"s C #orest vegetation). he level o#
"roduction (out%ut)& es"ecially agricultural #ood cro"s and
"lantations is determined by #actors o# land resources (soil).
seeds C seedlings. #ertili1ers. "esticides. $ater resources.
technological level. the level o# intensi>cation o# #arming. climate
conditions and skills C management. his study #ocuses on the
im"acts o# climate change (climate change) to the agricultural
sector and ho$ the mitigation strategies and C or ada"tation to
reduce the danger (ha(ard)& "ressing the vulnerability and the
resultant risks.
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&griculture as a "roduction "rocess based on natural resources
(natural resource based) such as rice >eld that the level o#
"roduction de"ends also on the availability o# irrigation $ater.
$hether sourced #rom irrigation in#rastructure as $ell as rain
$ater. Based on the source o# irrigation $ater. rice #arming area
in Lombok Island consists o# (1) technical irrigated rice >eld
area. ie >elds that al$ays get irrigation $ater throughout the
yearI (2) semiEtechnical irrigated rice >eld. $hich is undergoing
kekerungan rice irrigation $ater during the dry season des"ite
having a irrigation channelsI (3) sim"le irrigated rice and nonE
%3. the same >elds as irrigated rice >elds. but the technical K
tertiary irrigation canals and the @uarter is not "ermanentI (4)
rain #ed rice >elds. irrigation o# >elds de"endent on rain as the
area o# "addy >elds in &rid semiEtro"ical regions o# South
Lombok erratic agro climate.
South Lombok region that is characteri1ed by erratic agro
climate long rainy season is relatively short $ith the relative
distribution is uneven. the number o# rainy days is relatively
small so that the moon is also relatively little $et. rainy season
onset is uncertain. S"an o# time ("eriod) in the rainy season
generally -B Lombok Island is in the range in -ovember.
/ecember. Danuary. ,ebruary and 0arch (-/D,0). and in this
"eriod used by #armers to "lant the >rst rice (monsoon rice).
&#ter that. the dry season usually began in &"ril. so this month
that #armers have irrigated rice >eld o# technical K launch
activities to "lant cro"s and C or seasonal cro"s. es"ecially
tobacco.
Beginning o# the rainy season on the island o# Lombok every year
is uncertain (o#ten shi#ting). so the main activities #or the
agricultural sector is the initial estimate o# the rainy season is
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marked by the beginning o# the raindro"s continuously
(sustained). <enerally. the 0eteorological and <eo"hysics
&gency (B0<) to calculate and the initial estimate by the number
o# rainy season "reci"itation that #alls than the $ind direction
changes suddenly. 3sually. the beginning o# the rainy season in
an irrigated agricultural area o# technical. technical and K
rain$ater is indicated by the rain#all in the region has reached
!: mm or more in a 1:Eday "eriod $hich $as #ollo$ed by the
rainy conditions over !: mm in the "ast 1: days ne=t. 3nlike the
case $ith local rain#ed rice >elds. #armers general recommended
to start so$ing seeds o# "addy to rice #arming <ogorancah
system $hen rain#all has reached at least 7: mm in a "eriod o#
one $eek. his "henomenon is characteristic o# that climate
variability im"acts on the agricultural sector. meaning changes in
climate variability chance to cause danger (hazard) and !$s/ in
the agricultural sector es"ecially in the area o# rice cro"s are
vulnerable to climate change. Old rice "lants ranged #rom 11: to
11! days $ith through several "hases o# gro$th as "resented in
the #ollo$ing tableN
Ta,+e '.1 %hases in the "lanting o# rice gro$th #rom "lanting
until ready to harvest

-
o
<ro$th "hase he range o#
age (days)
reatment at "lanting
1 2egetative gro$th
(roots. stems) a#ter
"lanting
#rom a#ter
"lanting until
1!
he >rst #ertili1ation at
age 1! days
2 *hicks until the eve o#
the #ormation
"remordial
1! to R4! $eeding
3 %remordial (bunting) 4! to R7! he second
#ertili1ation. "est and
disease control i# there
is an attack
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4 %ollination
(,ertili1ation)
7! E 9:s 'egular irrigation
! <rain maturation
(#ruit)
4:E1:! %est and disease
observation
7 'eady to harvest 1:7E11! /rainage be#ore
harvest
Based on the gro$th "hase o# rice "lant in the "lanting and
irrigation $ater availability conditions in the 'egional Irrigation
(/I) and rain#all conditions in the rain#ed areas can be "resented
several o""ortunities ha1ards (ha(ard) that may be #aced by rice
#armers on the island o# Lombok. $hich is
a. Jemungkinan aa+ tana2 "ada bulan -ovember karena
kurangnya curah hujan.
b. %ossible 8a$+u!e 7+ant$n in -ovember due to lack o#
rain#all.
c. :a(ard #aced by a "hase during 4!EdayEold rice. $hich is
$hen the rice should be #ostered #or both #ertili1ing and
$eeding $eeds. but due to lack o# rain#all in the rain#ed area
#armers can not #ertili1ing. so that threaten disru"tion o#
"hysiological rice gro$th and im"act on reducing @uality and
the @uantity o# the "roduction
d. :a(ard on ?o$ering "hase has the rice (#ertili1ation) and
the grain $as contained. but not 1::L yello$. %ossible
danger (ha(ard) occurs $hen the #re@uency and @uantity o#
very e=cessive rain#all accom"anied by strong $inds. I# this
ha""ens then this could be considered dangerous ha(ard "8
%!"7 8a$+u!e due to the "ossibility o# decreasing @uality and
@uantity o# rice "roduction as a result o# the #re@uency and
@uantity o# rain#all highly e=aggerated.
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6ith re#erence to the "eriod o# the rice "lanting "eriod on the
island o# Lombok $hich generally lasts #rom midE-ovember until
,ebruary C 0arch. the data used in hazard analysis is the
amount o# $ater available to be a""roached by calculating the
(ater )alance calculation "otal .un !2& but because the data
in"ut o# 'ain#all and em"erature to be used only sourced #rom
one (1) Station &ir"ort Station is Sela"arang &m"enan. the
results obtained do not sho$ large diAerences in s"atial too.
here#ore. the results o# the study sho$ed that the "otential #or
disaster in $hat year the "ossibility o# disaster. It de"ends on the
level o# vulnerability (vulnerability level) region.
'.2.1. HaDa!. Ana+-s$s Fa$+e. P+ant$n
P"tent$a+ .ane! (hazard) i# it 8a$+s t" 7+ant$n riceE"lanting
"eriod is #rom -ovember to ,ebruary $ith the age o# "addy #rom
11: to 11! days. :a(ard $ill occur i# the availability o# too little
$ater during "lanting at the beginning o# -ovember until mid to
late -ovember. 0inimum limits associated $ith rain#all. the
"enugalan recommendations on "lanting rice seedlings in "addy
<ogorancah (<ora) in South Lombok is i# the rain#all has reached
a minimum o# 7: mm C month. here#ore #ail to see the "otential
#or "lanting carried out the analysis #or the minimum e=treme o#
$ater availability in -ovember. %otential danger (ha(ard) #ailed
"lanting riceE"lanting "eriod in -ovemberE,ebruary $ould
reduce rice yields and rice "roduction gains. he "otential is
indicated by the small amount o# $ater available in -ovember.
8=treme conditions is meant e=treme dry conditions $ith the use
o# trust values is 1!L. or $ith a margin o# error is minimum total
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"lant runo2 o# about :17; mm C month that can be obtained #rom
the gra"h Cummulative 8re9uency 0istribution (*/,) belo$.
F$u!e '.1 <ra"h Cummulative 8re9uency 0istribution
(*/,) otal 'un OA in -ovember
he "otential #ailure o# the rice "lant at every 1: years can be
obtained #rom the scenario sho$n in the table #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e '.2 he results o# the "redictive "otential #ailure o# rice
cro"s in the island o# Lombok in every 1: years
)ea!
SRB1 SRA1B SRA2
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
M$n TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
2::1 E
2:1: :.:!2 E:.11! :.:7: E:.1:; :.:41 E:.127
2:11 E
2:2: :.:7; E:.1:: :.:79 E:.:44 :.:41 E:.127
2:21 E
2:3: :.112 E:.:!! :.:9: E:.:9; :.121 E:.:47
2:31 E
2:4: :.114 E:.:!3 :.:;9 E:.:94 :.:!: E:.11;
2:41 E
2:!: :.:37 E:.131 :.::1 E:.177 :.:77 E:.1:1
2:!1 E :.:1! E:.1!2 :.:39 E:.124 :.:4! E:.122
58
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
)ea!
SRB1 SRA1B SRA2
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
M$n TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
2:7:
2:71 E
2:;: :.:94 E:.:;9 :.:41 E:.127 :.:42 E:.12!
2:;1 E
2:9: :.:7: E:.1:; :.:3: E:.13; :.:2: E:.14;
2:91 E
2:4: :.::7 E:.171 :.::: E:.17; :.::9 E:.1!4
2:41 E
21:: :.:14 E:.149 :.:!4 E:.113 :.::: E:.17;
*olor in#ormation #or each level o# danger (ha(ard) can be seen
in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e '.& Indicators o# #ailure ha1ard rate o# rice "lants on the
island o# Lombok in every 1: years
.
-
o
/anger level 6eight
danger
1 he $eight o# 1. not the
"otential #or cro" "lanting
:
2 he $eight o# 2. the
"otential #or lo$ "lanting
#ails
:N2!
"otential #ailure o#
"lanting $as
:.!
"otential #or "lanting
#ailed tingggi
:.;!
! he $eight o# !. the
"otential #or cro" #ailure
is very high
1
59
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
Based on the "rediction results in the table above that the
minimum "otal .un !2 ('O) #rom ::7; to ::79 mm C month
described the "otential ha1ard rate (ha(ard) o# #ailed "lanting
rice on the island o# Lombok in the year 2:11 to 2:2: $ith S'B1
and high S'&1B is $eighing the danger o# :.;! (;!L). 6hile the
S'B1 in 2:21 to 2:3: at least :112 and 'O #rom 2:31 to 2:4:
at least :114 'O #ailed to illustrate that the "otential #or lo$
"lant $ith a :N2! risk $eights (2!L). But in the years 2:21 E2:3:
$ith 'O S'&1B at least ::9: described the "otential ha1ard
rate (ha(ard) are classi>ed as dangerous $eight :.!: (!:L).
4.2.2. +a1ard analysis due to lack o# $ater during the "reEmordial
term
%otential danger (ha(ard) that occurred in "remordial "hase. ie
at the age o# 4! E 7: days o""ortunity to cause loss o# @uality and
@uantity o# rice "roduction $hich can be classi>ed #ailed to
obtain a satis#actory yield #or rice gro$th disturbance. :a(ard
cro" #ailure due to $ater shortage during bunting ("remordial)
$ill occur $hen the value o# his total runo2 under valueN :.:99!
mm C month. ie in Danuary. his value is based on the e=treme
dry conditions in the baseline data #rom the limits s"eci>ed
under normal conditions (1!L) o# the #ollo$ing */, gra"h
60
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
F$u!e '.2 <ra"h Cummulative 8re9uency 0istribution
(*/,) otal 'un OA in /ecember
P"tent$a+ Hazard "8 8a$+u!e $n t9e ,unt$n =7!e2"!.$a+; $ill
occur i# the availability o# $ater that is too small. $hereas the
riceE"lanting "eriod in the month o# -ovember to ,ebruary C
0arch. "remordial "eriod occurred in mid to late /ecember.
here#ore #ail to see the "otential in the analysis "hase o#
bunting made #or minimum e=treme o# $ater availability in
/ecember. %otential ha1ards $ill be lo$ering "roduction and
"roductivity o# "addy rice >eld. here are several "ossible
causes o# decreased @uality and @uantity o# rice "roduction on
the island o# Lombok associated $ith changes in climate
variability. ie
1) Lack o# $ater at the time o# rice $as about 4! days. the rice
started "remordial and the last #ertili1ation.
2) he #re@uency and @uantity o# rain#all $as e=cessive at the
time o# the rice cro" is at the dis"osal ("ollination) so that the
rice #ailed to "ollinate because the #re@uency and @uantity o#
rain#all is very high.
61
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
(3) he #re@uency and @uantity o# rain#all is very high and very
strong $inds occur $hen the rice $as about 7! to 9: days. ie at
the time o# #ertili1ation o# rice through ("ollination). Similarly. i#
there is #re@uency and @uantity o# rain#all and strong $inds
during the maturation "hase o# grain (#ruit) but not 1::L yello$.
then the ha(ard o# rice stra$ colla"sed. thus disturbing the
"rocess o# grain maturation.
It o#ten ha""ens #re@uency and e=cessive rain#all in the 6est
$ind is very strong at this "hase in the island o# Lombok. so that
a danger (ha(ard) rebahnya rice stra$ so that the @uality and
@uantity o# "roduction $ill decrease. In turn. i# one o# these
hazards actually occurs and the #act it $ould a""ear t9e !$s/s
(risks) a decrease in #ood su%%ly "articularly rice. and $ould
threaten the disru"tion o# #ood su""ly and #ood balance in the
region. so Lombok can not contribute to the "rovision o# the
national rice stocks.
4.2.3.+a1ard &nalysis ,ailure on the "ollination "hase
%otential ha1ards (:a(ard) #ailed at the time o# rice ?o$ering
undergoing "hase and "ollination (#ertili1ation) that is 1::L rice
"anicles $ere out a#ter "assing the "hase bunting ("remordial).
I# at this "hase (at the time o# rice $as about 7! to 9: days)
occurred #re@uency and @uantity o# very e=cessive rain#all
accom"anied by strong $inds. it $ill cause the #ailure o#
"ollination. so most o# the grains o# rice to be em"ty and the
lo$er the @uantity o# rice "roduction.
62
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
/es"ite strong $inds as one element o# the climate. but in this
analysis is not conducted an analysis o# the $ind. the analysis
#ocused only on the amount o# rain#all that occurred. +arvest
"eriod took "lace in late ,ebruary to midE0arch. but the
generally carried out in ,ebruary i# the "lanting is in midE
-ovember and the rice $as bet$een 11: to 11! days. here#ore
the analysis o# the "otential ha(ard to cro" #ailure is e=tremely
$et conditions on the total run+o2 in ,ebruary $ith the #ollo$ing
scenario
Ta,+e '.' he results o# "rediction "otential ha1ard (+a1ard)
#ailure o# the rice "hase bunting ("remordial) on the island o#
Lombok in every 1: years
)ea! SRB1 SRA1B SRA2
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
M$n
TRO
HaDa!.
Le#e+
2::1 E
2:1:
:.:29 E:.:7: :.:33 E:.:!7 :.:22 E:.:7;
2:11 E
2:2:
:.:37 E:.:!2 :.:37 E:.:!2 :.:22 E:.:7;
2:21 E
2:3:
:.:7: E:.:29 :.:43 E:.:4! :.:7! E:.:23
2:31 E
2:4:
:.:71 E:.:2; :.:42 E:.:47 :.:2; E:.:71
2:41 E
2:!:
:.:14 E:.:74 :.::: E:.:99 :.:3! E:.:!3
2:!1 E
2:7:
:.::9 E:.:9: :.:21 E:.:79 :.:24 E:.:74
2:71 E
2:;:
:.:49 E:.:4: :.:22 E:.:77 :.:23 E:.:77
2:;1 E
2:9:
:.:32 E:.:!7 :.:17 E:.:;2 :.:2: E:.:74
2:91 E
2:4:
:.::3 E:.:9! :.::: E:.:99 :.::9 E:.:9:
63
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
2:41 E
21::
:.:1: E:.:;9 :.:24 E:.:!4 :.::: E:.:99
6hile color in#ormation can be seen in the #ollo$ing tableN
Ta,+e '.0 he level and danger o# #ailure on the $eight o# "hase
bunting ("rimordial) on the island o# Lombok in every 1: years

-o
/anger level 6eight
danger
1 he $eight o# 1. not the "otential #or
#ailure bunting ("remordial)
:
2 he $eight o# 2. the "otential #ailure
bunting ("remordial) lo$
:N2!
bunting ("remordial) $as
:.!
bunting ("remordial) tingggi
:.;!
! he $eight o# !. the "otential #ailure
bunting ("remordial) is very high
1
he results o# the analysis in the table above illustrates that the
"otential level o# danger (ha(ard) at the time o# "hase ste""ing
"re mordial rice (bunting) is very high in 2:1: $ith a scenario
S'B1 and S'&2 $ith "otal .un !2 is in the range #rom ::22 to
::29. $hile $ith the scenario S'&1B 2:1:. 2:11 until the year
2:3: to 2:4: sho$s that the "otential level o# danger (ha(ard)
$hen the rice is at a high "hase "remordial is $eighing the
danger o# :.;! (;!L). here#ore based on these "redictions. #or
"ressing danger (ha(ard) risk o# cro" #ailure and decline in rice
"roduction on the island o# Lombok in the areas vulnerable to
climate change $ill need to be antici"ated through the
im"lementation o# ada"tation strategies $ith the #ull calculation
and consideration to avoid mal ada%tation.
64
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
4.2.4.+a1ard &nalysis in the $ake o# the harvest time
&t the time o# harvest be#ore the $ater conditions are not good i#
too much. does it mean i# the #re@uency and @uantity o# e=cessive
rain#all during the rice $as 4! to 11: days. then danger (ha(ard)
reduction o# cro" @uality and @uantity $ill decrease. here#ore.
at the time o# harvest be#ore the e=treme $et conditions $ill
aAect cro" reduction $ill be obtained. he harvest #or "lanting
the "eriod #rom -ovember to ,ebruary is generally held in
,ebruary until 0arch. But at this time the analysis is only
carried out the analysis #or the month o# ,ebruary.
I# #ertili1ation is by"assed "hase and grains o# rice is 1::L. ie at
the time o# rice $as about 4! to 11: days. and there #re@uency
and large rain#all accom"anied by strong $inds $ill result in a
colla"sed rice stra$. Such conditions o#ten occur on the island o#
Lombok and the resulting decrease in the @uantity and @uality o#
rice "roduction. $hich means that #armers can not enjoy a
"ro"er harvest normally #or rice stra$ into colla"sed due to
heavy rains or ?ooding and strong $inds.
*om"arison o# baseline conditions and "rojections can not be
done #or e=treme $et conditions. because in general a decline in
the availability o# $ater. here#ore. the analysis $as not
"er#ormed based on the baseline conditions but on the condition
that their o$n "rojections. Based on */, gra"h "rojected total
runo2 conditions in ,ebruary sho$ed that the e=treme $et
conditions (*/,S 9!L) occurs $hen the total runo2 above :434
mm C month.
65
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
F$u!e '.& <ra"h Cummulative 8re9uency 0istribution (*/,)
otal 'un OA in ,ebruary
Based on the results o# these "redictions can be obtained
"otential ha1ard (:a(ard) #ailed harvest by #ollo$ing the
#ollo$ing scenario
Ta,+e '.1 he results o# "rediction "otential danger (ha(ard) in
the "hase be#ore the rice harvest $as 4! to 11: days on the
island o# Lombok in every 1: years
)ea!
SRB1 SRA1B SRA2
Ma?ETR
O
HaDa!.
Le#e+
Ma?ETR
O
HaDa!.
Le#e+
Ma?ETR
O
HaDa!.
Le#e+
2::1
E
2:1:
1!!.:17
9
1!4.!9
31
1!7.123
4
1!!.79
4; 4!.7141 4!.19!4
2:11
E
2:2: :.4343 :.::!7
149.177
2
14;.;3
2!
134.31!
4
133.992
2
2:21
E
2:3:
124.492
7
124.:4
94
2!;.442
9
2!;.:!
41
2:!.31;
!
2:4.993
9
2:31
E
2:4:
1!4.3:7
1
1!3.9;
2! ;1.4:34 ;:.4;:3
194.113
9
193.79:
1
2:41
E
2:!: :.!127 :.:;94 :.294; E:.144:
142.:4;
2
141.773
!
2:!1 41.:;;! 4:.7434 :.3;4; E:.:!94 :.3:2! E:.1312
66
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
)ea!
SRB1 SRA1B SRA2
Ma?ETR
O
HaDa!.
Le#e+
Ma?ETR
O
HaDa!.
Le#e+
Ma?ETR
O
HaDa!.
Le#e+
E
2:7:
2:71
E
2:;: 94.2!2; 99.9141 :.4497 :.:144 4;.9229 4;.3941
2:;1
E
2:9: :.3344 E:.:499 :.33;4 E:.:472 :.34:7 E:.:43:
2:91
E
2:4: 1.7747 1.231: :.2!!4 E:.1;;; :.3:1: E:.1327
2:41
E
21:: 4;.4;94 4;.!4!2 :.3:43 E:.1244 :.1;44 E:.2!43
*olor in#ormation as an indicator o# the level o# ha1ard
Ta,+e '.3 he level and $eight o# the dangers o# #ailure in "hase
be#ore the rice harvest $as 4! to 11: days on the island o#
Lombok in every 1: years
-
o
/anger level 6eight danger
1 he $eight o# 1. not the
"otential #or cro" #ailure
:
2 he $eight o# 2. the "otential
#or lo$ cro" #ailure
:N2!
#or cro" #ailure $as
:.!
#or cro" #ailure tingggi
:.;!
! he $eight o# !. the "otential
#or cro" #ailure is very high
1
he results o# the analysis in the table above illustrates that the
"otential level o# danger (ha(ard) at the time o# rice $as 4: to
11: days (late harvest) is lo$ $ith 2!L risk $eight in the year
2:11 to 2:2: $ith a ma=imum S'B1 scenario run+o2 is
67
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
a""ro=imately :.4343 mm C months. $hile the scenario S'&1B in
2::1 to 2:1: and #rom 2:11 to 2:2: sho$s that the "otential
level o# danger (ha(ard) at the time o# late rice harvest (age 4: to
11: days) $as high and $eighs the dangers o# :.;! (;!L) and
the ma=imum total run+o2 is 1!7.1234 mm C month and 149.1772
mm C month.
Based on >eld observations that the "redicted range o# "otential
ha1ards at the time the year 2::1 E 2:1: by S'B1 scenarios and
S'&1B (ha(ard level o# high cro" #ailure) $as indeed true. his
is evidenced by @uantity and @uality o# rice "roduction has
decreased in several districts on the island o# Lombok in the
2::;C2::9 "lanting season and the 2::9C2::4 harvest in about
0arch. his "roduction reduction caused not by drought. but
because at the time o# rice $as ;: to 9: days in "hase and out
"remordial "anicles. the "eriod o# ?o$ering ("ollination) occurs
the #re@uency and intensity o# high rain#all $ith highEs"eed
$inds. his results in "ollination does not occur in an o"timal
#ashion. so that the rice grains mostly em"ty. his condition
re@uires the need #or inEde"th study (action research) about the
shi#t start time o# "lanting #or irrigated rice >elds $hich had
started the nursery in midE-ovember. %lanting schedule can be
adjusted so that the availability o# irrigation $ater can be
estimated age at the time o# rice ?o$ering "remordial and does
not meet the rainy season $ith high intensity and #re@uency are
accom"anied by strong $inds.
*ase >ndings decline in rice "roduction >elds at harvest time in
0arch 2::4 is in /istrict Donggat. %ringgarata. and /istrict
Batujai %ujut and most Setangor 2illage. here#ore. in the >rst
"lanting season (rainy season). #or the district and %eringgarata
need Donggat land and cro" management. One o# the
68
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
alternatives and management that allo$ "ro>table cro" is
divided "ro"ortionally rice >eld (1 C 4 section o# land to "lant
beans. and T to "lant rice). he reason is because the $et land
in this area vulnerable to decline in "addy rice "roduction $hile
commodity "eanuts com%arative advantage gained high enough
level. here#ore. in the dry season I in 2::9 and 2::4 these t$o
districts selected #or the %ilot %ro=ect research and develo"ment
o# "eanut coo"eration bet$een the /ustralian Center 'or
International /gricultural .esearch (&*I&'). 8arth Blossom
Balitkabi ani and 0alang.
Based on the results "redicted and actual cases o# the above and
considering -B Lombok Island is one o# the agricultural 1one
that has been established to continue contributing to the national
rice stock "rocurement through im"lementation o# -ational 'ice
%roduction Increase (%2B-). it is necessary to attem"t to
minimi1e the danger (ha(ard ). even i# "ossible eliminate the
chance a""earance o# ha(ard and risk that $ill ha""en. But
because the #arm business is a business >lled $ith uncertainty
(uncertainty) and the risk. the human eAort is at the limit only to
minimi1e the dangers (ha(ards) and risk ada"tation strategies to
manage the rational. "lanned. and calculated by $orking smart.
coordinated& collaborative and %artici%atory by selecting "riority
scale steadily. his is es"ecially necessary #or local action in
areas #rom the island o# Lombok -B area as a "rogram
manager $ho is a movement %2B- increase national rice
"roduction is accom"anied by the "rovision o# in"uts and
in#rastructure im"rovements in rice "roduction through
o"timi1ing the utili1ation o# agricultural resources. technological
and institutional.
69
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
o achieve the objectives and targets are needed %2B- the
elements o# the main su""ort o# the availability o# $et land.
irrigation in#rastructure. availability o# irrigation $ater. rain#all is
suAicient. But in "ractice. the island o# Lombok is o#ten
con#ronted by drought and ?oods as a result o# the rainy season
are uncertain. his "roves that the rain#all "atterns are erratic
in Lombok is one element o# the climate in dangerous chance
(hazard) #ailed cro"s and the rice cro" #ailure and the !$s/ "8
decline in "roduction and "roductivity that $ill disru"t #ood
security. /isru"tion o# #ood security is a threat to a region o#
having a high susce"tibility and the ability (ca"acity) is lo$ to
survive the global climate change. Solving these "robles are not
only the res"onsibilities o# a single agency only. but all "arties in
accordance $ith the #unctions and roles and com"etencies.
here#ore. the necessary ada"tation strategies are coordinated&
collaborative and %artici%atory #rom various institutions.
agencies and the "arties (stake holders). &da"tation strategies
that are deemed a""ro"riate to reschedule the time o# "lanting.
cro""ing settings to avoid the danger o# drought. the danger due
to the #re@uency and @uantity o# the e=cessive rain#all in these
"hases.
4.3. 2ulnerability &nalysis in &griculture Sector
ro"ical Lombok Island $ith t$o seasons. the rainy season and
dry season. S"an o# time (duration) the rainy season is relatively
shorter than the dry season and the start o# the rainy season
each year is o#ten uncertain. and there#ore contributes to the
agricultural sector in "articular schedule and harvest cro"s. Soil
ty"es and land use. to"ogra"hy (slo"e). the "o"ulation o# each
district. the #re@uency and distribution o# rain#all. and the
70
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
"overty rate in Lombok Island "o"ulation is relatively diverse.
here#ore. the #actors considered in the analysis o# vulnerability
in the agricultural sector o# Lombok Island &gricultural Land
ty"e (irrigated "addy >elds. dry land or rain#ed mi=ed). otal
%o"ulation. -umber o# %reE%ros"erous and %ros"erous Less.
slo"e (slo%e)& and 'ain#all distribution. o assess the level o#
vulnerability (i# the agricultural sector vulnerable. @uite
susce"tible or highly susce"tible) to climate change every
district in the island o# Lombok based on these #actors. each
#actor $as given $eight by the method o# $eighting >%air ,ise
com%arison> $hich $as #ollo$ed by )eogra%hic In'ormation
ystem a""lications (<IS). ,rom the results o# the analysis can
be seen in the s"atial level o# vulnerability o# each district in the
island o# Lombok.
he results o# the analysis illustrates that based on these #actors
are s"atially sho$ed diAerent levels o# vulnerability among
districts in the district and bet$een districts in the island o#
Lombok. his can vulnerability is understood as the ratio
bet$een the e="osure multi"lied by the sensitivity o# the ca"acity
and ?e=ibility.
'ice #arming intensively in Lombok -B carried out on various
ty"es o# land. $hich is to be done in the "addy >elds <ogoI "addy
rice ('ancah) conducted on irrigated rice >eld o# technical and
semiEtechnical irrigated rice systems as $ell as #or <ogorancah
(<ora) held on $et land rain #ed (rain'ed). 'ice #arming systems
combining t$o <ora is a rice gro$ing system. the <ogo system
and 'ancah on rain #ed rice areas. $here the >rst seeds o# "addy
rice cultivation >lled like <ogo system. then at age 3: to 4: days
a#ter "lanting. the rice "lants $ere treated as rice "addy
71
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
'ice cultivation can be done 2 to 3 times a year in technical
irrigated rice >eld. $hereas in irrigated rice >eld and the
technical hal# done rain #ed riceE"lanting once a year $ith the
alternative cro""ing "atternsN
echnical irrigated
rice >eld

N
%addy E %addy E %addy
%addy E %addy E *ro"
K irrigated >elds o#
technical

N
%addy E *ro" E *ro" and C or vegetables
%addy E obacco E Bero
'ainE#ed rice >elds
N
%addy <ora E *ro" (Soybean and C or
green beans)
Ta,+e '.4 Summary o# results o# analysis o# the im"act o# climate
change on agriculture in the island o# Lombok
Va!$a,+e Hazard =H;
Vulnerability
=V;
Risks
=R;
St!at!e$ a.a7tat$"n
&gricultural
Land 1.i"e
a. 0i=ed
/rylan
d
&gricul
ture
('ain$
ater
'ice)
,ailed cro"s 2ulnerable +igh +arvest $ater by
making embung.
irrigation $ith
ground$ater in (a $ell).
$hich embung
renovating
bersedimentasi
b.
,ailed
"remord
ial

2ulnera
ble

+igh
c.
,ailed
harvest
2ery
2ulnera
ble

2ery
+igh
d.
6etlan
d
&gricul
ture
('ice
Irrigati
on)
,ailed cro"s -ot
vulnerable
Lo$ 'isk
e.
,ailed
"remord
ial

2ulnera
ble

2ery
high
risk
&tu0enentukan
scheduled start
time and the
"ro"er "lanting.
set the "attern #or
"lanting. selecting
rice varieties
genjah age. use o#
#ertili1er that $ill
#.
,ailed
be#ore
2ery
2ulnera
ble
72
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
harvest strengthen the rice
stra$. O"ening o#
*limate ,ield
School (SLI)
g.
,ailed
+arvest
2ery
2ulnera
ble
h. /ry
Land
(,arm)
,ailed cro"s
,ailed harvest
2ery
2ulnerable
2ery
2ulnerable
+igh 'isk Irrigation $ater in the
soil. s"ringkel. su"erior
@uality "lanting old
varieties genjah
i.
%lantat
ion
EE EE EE EE
c. -onE
&gricultural
(#orest)
EE EE EE EE
2. Slo"e
(slo%e)
,ailed cro"s 2ery
2ulnerable
Lo$ 'isk erracing. $ater
conservation and land.
"om"anisasi.
,ailed
"remordial
2ulnerable +igh 'isk
,ailed harvest 2ulnerable +igh 'isk
3.
/istribution
o# 'ain#all
,ailed cro"s 2ery
vulnerable
,ailed
highErisk
"lant. cut
"roduction
Set the a""ro"riate time
to start "lanting rainE#ed
rice >elds. irrigation
$ater in the soil
("om"anisasi)
,ailed
"remordial
2ery
vulnerable
+igh risk
o# cro"
#ailure
embung to build $ater
harvesting. renovation o#
rain$ater e=cess
reservoir
,ailed be#ore
harvest
2ery
vulnerable
+igh risk
o# cro"
#ailure
*ro" diversi>cation
,ailed
+arvest
2ery
vulnerable
4. Level o#
6el#are
/rought 2ulnerable ,ailed
"remordia
l
8m"o$erment the
renovations. rain $ater
harvesting

4.3.1. 2ulnerability Based on y"e o# &gricultural Land
73
Agriculture Sector
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y"e o# agricultural land on the island o# Lombok are grou"ed
into three ty"es. namely 0i=ed /ryland &griculture ('ice
'ain$ater). 6etland &griculture ('ice Irrigation). dry land
#arming (>elds). "lantations and -onE&griculture (various ty"es
o# #orest). he results o# the analysis and <IS ma"s illustrate
that the areas "rone to drought based on the ty"e o# land use can
be "resented in this table.
Ta,+e '.5 &reas "rone to drought based on the ty"e o# land use
on the island o# Lombok
.
-o
Land 3se y"e 2ulnerability
ranking

6eig
ht
*olors in
the ma"
1 0i=ed /ryland &griculture
('ain$ater 'ice)
1 (very
vulnerable)
:.4 'ed
2 6etland &griculture ('ice
Irrigation)
2 (2ulnerable) :.3 /ark yello$
3 /ryland &griculture (#arm) 3 (@uite
vulnerable)
:.2 <reen
4 %lantation 4 (less
susce"tible)
:.1 /ark green
! -on &griculture U (-ot
vulnerable)
: <ray
a. %ertanian lahan kering cam"uran yang didominasi oleh
sa$ah tadah hujan. Denis lahan ini sangat rentan terhada"
"erubahan iklim terutama kekeringan karena sumber
irigasinya adalah semataEmata bersumber dari hujan.
b. 0i=ture o# dry land agriculture is dominated by rain #ed
rice >elds. his ty"e o# land is very vulnerable to climate
change. es"ecially drought because the source o# irrigation is
derived solely #rom the rain.
74
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c. 6etland &griculture (irrigated rice). his agricultural land
is dominated by irrigated rice >elds #ull o# technical. technical
and igigaasi K sim"le irrigated (irrigation non %3). his ty"e
o# land classi>ed as vulnerable to climate change.
d. /ry land agriculture (#arm)
Based on the results o# the analysis and $eighting method >Pair
,ise Com%arison> in detail the three ty"es o# land use $ith the
level o# vulnerability can be seen on the #ollo$ing ma"
F$u!e '.' 0a" o# landEuse ty"es on the island o# Lombok
based on the results o# the analysis and $eighting method
>Pair,ise Com%arison>.
4.3.2. 2ulnerability based on slo"e
Slo"e is e="ressed in "ercent (L) $ere included as one #actor o#
vulnerability o# the agricultural sector in climate change im"act
75
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
analysis #or slo"ing lands associated $ith the ca"acity to hold
$ater and the vulnerability o# the agricultural 1one o# erosion
and landslide ha1ards in the event o# rain. he higher the
"ercentage o# slo"e (slo%e) o# a "lace means the "lace is more
vulnerable to climate change. Based on the analysis and
$eighting the slo"e o# each class o# agricultural acreage in each
district on the island o# Lombok has been "ut into a ma" #rom the
level o# the lo$est slo"e (: E 9L) u" to the highest slo"e (S 4:L).
and any given level o# slo"e signs $ith diAerent colors. &reas
$ith very stee" slo"e $ith a level above 4:L are in areas around
the mountains. 0ountain slo"es around this (eg 0ount 'injani.
the hills around the #orest in the #orest area Sekotong etc.)
should be distinguished #rom the slo"e in the area o# agriculture.
Slo"e classes have been ranked and the method stressed on the
>Pair,ise Com%arison> as sho$n in the #ollo$ing table and the
location o# these "laces in the ma" as the #ollo$ing ma".
Ta,+e '.16 *lass rank slo"e and "lace on the island o# Lombok
-o Slo"e *lass (L) 'angk 6eight *olor on
the ma"
1 : V 9 1 :.33 /ark green
2 9V 1! 2 :.2; <reen
3 1! V 2! 3 :.2: yello$
3 2! V 4: 4 :.13 red
4 S 4: ! :.:; Scarlet
76
Agriculture Sector
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F$u!e '.0 0a" o# the distribution o# the slo"e (slo%e) on the
island o# Lombok.
In this analysis. the calculated rate is the slo"e o# agricultural
area u" to 1!L to 2!L and slo"es #rom 2! to 4:L. &gricultural
areas $ith this slo"e is e=tremely vulnerable to climate change
(drought) #or irrigation $ater #rom the river can not irrigate the
agricultural areas that directly and also vulnerable to erosion
and landslide ha1ards in the event o# heavy rain continuously. I#
these #arms are in the #orm o# rain #ed rice >elds or >elds
in?uence the slo"e o# the "o$er save $ater. I# there is #re@uency
and high rain#all land slide as the "otential dangers and erosion
is very high. meaning the area is very vulnerable to climate
change. &da"tation in the agricultural area $hich has a stee"
slo"e classes can be done by creating terraces. "lanting grass on
the dikes to hold back the rain $ater so as not to directly touch
the ground. thus "reventing erosion.
77
Agriculture Sector
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4.3.3. 2ulnerability based on the %eo"le5s 6el#are Level
/ata -umber o# %reE%ros"erous and less "ros"erous areas o#
each district in the island o# Lombok obtained #rom B%S survey
o# %otential 2illages in 2::7. he statistical data is grou"ed into
3 classes o# vulnerability. ie the "ercentage o# #amilies Less
%ros"erous and less than !7.44LI !7. 44L E 92.:2L and greater
than 92.:2L. Based on the ranking and $eighting $ith >Pair
,ise Com%arison> the level o# vulnerability can be "resented in
the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e '<11 %ercent he "ercentage o# "ros"erous and less
"ros"erous on the island o# Lombok (B%S survey. 2::7)

-o
he lack o#
$ellEbeing (L)

'anki
ng

6eigh
t
2ulnerability
Level
/escri"tion
1 R!7.44L 1
:.17;
Some$hat
vulnerable
-umber o# districts
%esentase least
2 !7.44L
E92.:2L
2
:.333
2ulnerable -umber o# districts
%esentase medium
3 S 92.:2L 3
:.!::
2ery
vulnerable
he number o#
districts most
(a). &verage E &verageN 74.44LI (b). Standard /eviationN 12.!4LI (c).
0inimumN (34.37L) (d). 0a=imumN (4:.41L)
%re "ros"erous society and less "ros"erous s"reading in each
district. S"atially the region (subEdistricts) $hich have a
"ercentage o# %reE%ros"erous and %ros"erous Less may be
kno$n through the #ollo$ing ma". he results o# the analysis
and $eighting method >Pair ,ise Com%arison> describes that the
number o# district on the island o# Lombok is the "ercentage o#
"reE"ros"erous society and the less "ros"erous are R!7.44L is
the minimum amount. ie about 7 subEdistricts (Jecamatan
78
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
+eaven. <anga. S$ela. %raya *entral. 8astern and &m"enan
%raya). he "ercentage o# "re "ros"erous and less "ros"erous
greater than 74.44LL is the most common and thought to be too
vulnerable to climate change because o# the lo$ ability to ada"t.
F$u!e '.1 0a" o# the distribution o# the "ercentage o# "reE
"ros"erous #amilies and less "ros"erous on the island o# Lombok
in 2::7
&da"tation is not only carried out in an eAort to overcome the
bio"hysical changes in the environment. but the #ocus is mainly
#or ada"tation to hel" the "oor in im"roving their ability to
ada"t. It is e="ected that the im"lementation o# develo"ment
$ith the aim o# im"roving the economic ca"ability society. such
as "overty alleviation $ill indirectly be able to increase resilience
to climate change. It is e="ected to increase institutional
79
Agriculture Sector
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ca"acity and develo"ment o# socioEeconomic resilience o# "oor
communities is the ability to survive (Resilience) to strengthen
and reducing the vulnerability levels. here#ore it is necessary to
strengthen the ca"acity o# "oor communities by em"o$ering.
#acilitating creation rain$ater e=cess reservoir "ond to harvest
$ater during the rainy season in rain #ed areas. #acilitating the
rain$ater e=cess reservoir renovating the shallo$ e="erience
(sedimentation). such as in Sub %ujut *entral Lombok /istrict.
On the ma" can also be seen that there are several districts in
6est Lombok regency. although technical areas such as irrigated
rice >elds in Ke.$!$ D$st!$%t* D$st!$%t an. L$nsa! La,ua7$*
but this district has a "o"ulation "ercentage o# "reE"ros"erous
and less "ros"erous greater than 92.:2L. his community is
classi>ed very vulnerable to the dangers (ha(ards) o# climate
change because although the area irrigated o# the >eld in
technical term. but $idely cultivated. land ac@uisition area is
relatively lo$ and most #armersH status as a "easant #armer and
even many o# the status as a laborer.
3nlike the case $ith subEdistricts in -orth Lombok as Sub
+eaven. <anga o# land is a mi=ture o# dry land. but the
"ercentage o# "re "ros"erous society (the "oor) is R!7.44L.
his can be understood because the "o"ulation in the district is
dominated by immigrants $ho do business (trading) in the area.
Similarly. "eo"le in the /istrict o# 8ast Lombok S$ela that
although many o# the nonEland agriculture. but #armers in dry
land mi= and irrigated rice >elds that seek high economic value
cro"s such as 2irginia tobacco. garlic. red onion $hich is a
commodity in the area.
80
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
4.3.4. Jerentanan Berdasarkan Sebaran *urah +ujan
In this analysis. conducted t$o scenarios about the distribution
o# rain#all in the island o# Lombok. the scenario used #or dry
"lanting #ails 'isk and $et scenarios used #or the risk o# cro"
#ailure. %atterns and distribution o# rain#all in the island
associated $ith the "resence o# 0ount 'injani $ith height until
3:::an meters. In addition. the "osition o# this island in the
e@uatorial region and ?anked by t$o continents o# &sia and
&ustralia and t$o oceans the Indian Ocean and %aci>c Ocean
islands has led to t$o seasons (rainy and dry season). *limate on
the island is marked by "eriods o# rainy season #rom -ovember
to 0arch $hich $as #ollo$ed by a dry season #or about ; months.
6e start and end o# the rainy season varies de"ending on its
location and natural "henomena. ,or e=am"le. Lombok -orth
(around the #oot o# 0ount 'injani south) early rainy season
usually #alls in late October. in Southern Lombok rainy season
#alls in the middle o# -ovember. o#ten even in /ecember. 6hile
in the area around the north coast o# 0ount 'injani. ussually
early rainy season starts in Danuary. he dry season lasts #or
about ; months and usually begins in &"ril to October o# that
year de"ends on $hether there $as e#treme event s
"henomenon 8l -ino or La -ina. I# it occurred in the 8l -ino
"henomenon usually Lombok Island e="erienced a long drought
since the #all o# the rainy season in midE-ovember and even
/ecember to 0arch.
Local geogra"hic conditions e="ected Lombok have real im"act
on climate. namely the e=istence o# 'injani mountain to$ering in
the northern "art o# the island causing rain#all in the
surrounding mountains are relatively high (S 2!::mm). $hile
the southern "art o# Lombok $ill receive less rain#all. In
81
Agriculture Sector
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addition. -B Lombok Island is located bet$een 11!
:
4 HE 114
:
2:H 8ast Longitude and 9
o
4
o
;HE9 Hsouth latitude climate is
in?uenced by season (moonsonal climate); the movement o# the
$ind has changed direction once in each si= months. In essence.
the change o# $ind direction indicates the change o# seasons on
the island o# Lombok (the rainy season and dry season) is closely
related to the global "henomenon that moves east trade $ind
#rom the %aci>c Ocean to the Indonesian archi"elago. 0ott
0c/onald and %artners &sia (144!) and 0artyn (1442) stated
that the change o# cold $inds #rom the -orth +emis"here and
the South that $ill blo$ to$ard the e@uator (the $armer regions)
because the #orce is e="eriencing corriolis $ind convergence and
the move to$ard the 6est $hile carrying $ater va"or. 6ater
va"or is the "otential to #orm rain generally Southern Oscillation
Inde= (IOS) or the outhern !scillation Inde# (SOI) in?uence on
the transition "eriod #rom dry season to rainy season. 3sually.
the start o# this transition is not the same bet$een one "lace
(region) $ith others. so that estimated causes o# rain#all
distribution is also diAerent in diAerent "laces.
82
Agriculture Sector
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F$u!e '.3 0a" o# vulnerability based on distribution o# rain#all
in the e=treme conditions used to dry the risk o# #ailed cro"s
F$u!e '.4 ma"s $et scenarios used #or the risk o# cro"
#ailure.
83
Agriculture Sector
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/istribution o# rain#all in the island o# Lombok are highly varied
in each region. does not de"art #rom the above. and this has
im"lications #or the distribution o# agricultural commodities are
gro$n. Beginning o# the rainy season on the island o# Lombok is
a benchmark #or #armers start "lanting activities in the >eld or
>elds. I# $e can "redict the early #all o# the rainy season so $e
can "revent "lant #ailure that o#ten occurs in rain #ed rice >elds
in South Lombok gogorancah im"lement systems. ,ailure to
harvest due to rain#all #re@uency and very much at the time the
rice is in ?o$ering stage ("ollination) and C or at the time o#
ri"ening rice grains can be "revented by adjusting the time C
"recise schedule. /istribution o# rain#all in each district in the
area o# Lombok Island. both scenarios #ail to dry #or "lanting and
risk scenarios that are used to $et the risk o# cro" #ailure can be
seen on the ma" above.
4.3.5.2ulnerability in otal
2ulnerability is calculated only on the total agricultural area
$hich includesN rain#ed rice. irrigated >elds. >elds. and
"lantations. o calculate the value o# the vulnerability o# $ater
availability o# data usedN
a. Land 3se y"e ('ice Irrigation and rain#ed rice >elds)
(date)
b. %ercentage o# %reE%ros"erous and %ros"erous Less (ks)
c. Slo"e (ks)
d. 'ain#all distribution "attern (ch)
here are t$o that $ill be "roduced Susce"tibility o# %otential
,ailure to vulnerabilities to "lant and harvest vulnerability to
#ailure
a. S%ena!$" 1 =>$t9 t9e >e+8a!e "8 t9e 7"7u+at$"n;
84
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
Scenario 1 in the analysis o# vulnerability assessment o# the level
o# "lanting #ailed due to drought is to "ut the $el#are #actors in
the model analysis. hen in scenario 2 try not to "ut the $el#are
o# the "o"ulation in the analysis aims to determine the level o#
vulnerability o# #ailed cro"s as drought im"act on the island o#
Lombok. he reason $hy the level o# $el#are o# the "o"ulation is
also used as one variable in the analysis because o# the "oor are
considered vulnerable to climate change. his means that the
"oor ability to survive the dangers (ha1ards) o# drought. ?oods or
other climate change im"acts are much lo$er than rich "eo"le
(stronger economy). S"atially vulnerability o# each rice >eld areas
that are not susce"tible to highly susce"tible to #ailure once
"lanted as drought im"act is determined by the method o#
%air$ise *om"arison by $eighting each "arameter (date. ks. kl.
and *h). 6eighting o# each "arameter and the %air$ise
*om"arison method o# a""lication is as sho$n in the #ollo$ing
table. hen. based on $eighted analysis and continued $ith the
hel" o# <IS ma""ing $ith the level o# vulnerability o# each area
set #orth in the rice >elds #ollo$ing ma"N
85
Agriculture Sector
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F$u!e '.5 he vulnerability o# "lanting #ails to take into account
the $el#are o# the "o"ulation
Ta,+e '<12 6eighted every "arameter 1 vulnerability scenarios
to assess the vulnerability o# #ailed cro"s in the island o# Lombok

-o
%arameters
*od
e
&ccuracy
data
he in?uence
o# data
6eight
data
1 Land use ty"e tgl 3 3 !
2 %ercentage o# %reE%ros"erous
and %ros"erous Less
ks 2 3 4
3 Slo"e (slo"e) Jl
(s)
3 2 4
4 'ain#all distribution "attern *h 2 2 3
hen the results o# $eighting the data used to calculate the
$eight in the calculation o# vulnerability $ith Pair ,ise
com%arison method is as #ollo$sN
C".e t+ S+ %9 /s t"ta+ N"!2a+
T+ 1N:: 2N:: 3N:: 4N:: 1:N:: :N4!
S+ :N!: 1N:: 2N:: 3N:: 7N!: :N24
C9 :N33 :N!: 1N:: 2N:: 3.93 :N1;
Ks :N2! :N33 :N!: 1N:: 2N:9 :N:4
22N42 1
he results o# the analysis to include social $el#are (scenario 1)
illustrate that the agricultural area in Lombok Island has varied
levels o# vulnerability de"ending on the distribution o# rain#all in
each region. 'egion (district) o# #ragile and highly vulnerable to
ha1ards (ha(ard) as a result o# #ailed cro"s in case o# drought are
common in areas o# rain#ed rice >elds. rice "addies in the area
86
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
include South Lombok *entral Lombok regency and several
districts in 8ast Lombok /istrict. 6hile that is not vulnerable
areas and are less vulnerable areas such as Sub "ersa$ahannya
irrigated 0asbagik. Suralaga. S3J&03LI&. Selong. Sakra
subdistrict. Dana"ria and *entral %raya. 'egional level is very
high vulnerability #ound in several locations in the /istrict
Bayan.
<iven the time s"an o# the rainy season is relatively short on the
island o# Lombok. $hile the rice cro" is very much needed $ater
is necessary to choose other cro"s o# high economic value as a
substitute #or rice. his does not mean advocated a reduction o#
consum"tion o# rice. but need to take into account the
com%arative advantage o# rice $ith other cro"s that have high
economic value. ,or e=am"le. #armers can choose green beans.
and C or soybeans that have a li#etime shorter than "eanuts. I#
the #eared $ould ha""en because the "roduction o# abundant
choices o# relatively uni#orm cro" diversi>cation is encouraged to
continue to take into account market o""ortunities and
com%arative advantage (com"etitive advantage).
,. S%ena!$" 2 =>$t9"ut %"ns$.e!$n t9e >e+8a!e "8 t9e
7"7u+at$"n;
he ne=t scenario is the analysis $ithout considering the $el#are
"endudk #actors to assess the vulnerability o# cro"s #ail due to
drought. %rocedures and analysis o# the same ste"s as ste" 1 o#
scenario analysis (taking into account the $el#are o# the
"o"ulation). he results o# the analysis and $eighting methods
such as Pair ,ise Com%arison is in the #ollo$ing table and ma"
areas $here rice >elds are vulnerable. very vulnerable can be
seen on the ne=t ma" is designed $ith )eogra%hycal In'ormation
87
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
ystem (<IS). 6eighting o# each "arameter to assess the level o#
vulnerability
Ta,+e '<1& 6eighted every "arameter vulnerability scenario 1
($ith the $el#are o# the "o"ulation) to assess the vulnerability o#
#ailed cro"s in the island o# Lombok
-o %arameters *ode &ccuracy
data
he in?uence
o# data
6eight data
1 Land use ty"e tgl 3 3 3
3 Slo"e (slo"e) Jl (s) 3 2 2
4 'ain#all
distribution
"attern
*h 1 3 1
C".e t+ s+ %9 t"ta+ n"!2a+
T+ 1N:: 2N:: 3N:: 7N:: :.!24412
S+ :N!: 1N:: 2N:: 3N!: :.3:9924
C9 :N33 :N!: 1N:: 1.93 :.171;7!
11N33 1
88
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
F$u!e '.16 0a" o# the regions $ith the level o# vulnerability
to ha1ards analysis #ailed "lanting scenario 2 ($ithout the
$el#are o# the "o"ulation)
Berdasarkan sebaran curah hujan. secara s"asial da"at dilihat
arealEareal "ersa$ahan yang tidak rentan sam"ai sanat !entan
terhada" kekeringan berdasarkan hasil analisis tentang sebaran
curah hujan di %ulau Lombok. +asil analisis skenario 1 (dengan
mem"erhitungkan kesejahteraan "enduduk) dan skenario 2
(tan"a mem"erhitungkan kesejahteraan "enduduk) menunjukkan
"erbedaan "ada tingkat kerentanan F!entanF ("ada "eta
ditunjukkan dengan $arna kuning) dan Fsanat !entanF ("ada
"eta ditunjukkan dengan $arna oranye). menggambarkan bah$a
luas areal "ertanian (daerahEdaerah) yang sangat rentan
terhada" bahaya (ha(ard) gagal tanam lebih banyak dari"ada
89
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
yang rentan ("ada "eta ditunjukkan oleh $arna oranye). +asil
analisis Skenario 2 agak berbeda dengan analisis "ada skenario
1. Dumlah kecamatan yang Wsanat !entanW "ada skenario 1
lebih sedikit dari"ada jumlah kecamatan yang Wsangat rentanW
"ada skenario 2. eta"i jumlah kecamatan yang WrentanW lebih
banyak "ada skenario 1 dari"ada jumlah kecamatan yang
WrentanW "ada skenario 2. %ada skenario 1. di kecamatan
Jayangan dan %raya imur yang semula WrentanW terhada" gagal
tanam. teta"i analisis dengan skenario 2 berubah menjadi sangat
rentan. +al ini mengindikasikan bah$a tingkat kesejahteraan
"enduduk ber"engaruh terhada" tingkat kerentanan gagal
tanam. artinya masyarakat miskin memang rentan terhada"
bahaya gagal tanam jika terjadi bencana kekeringan.
2ulnerability associated $ith some areas on the island o# Lombok
to the danger o# the drought can be seen #ollo$ing the drought o#
actual data #or the rice cro" acreage and cro"s on the island o#
Lombok in the last #e$ years.
'<1' Ta,+e >eld area aAected by natural disasters o# drought on
rice "lants on the island o# Lombok -B Gear 2::4 s C d in 2::9
(/e"artment o# &griculture -B. 2::4)
/istrict C *ity
Sub
/rought Si1e (+a) in the yearN
2::4 2::! 2::7 2::; 2::9 &mount
1. *ity o#
0ataram
GG GG GG GG GG
2. 6est Lombok
224.
6
'&1.6 '0.6
1*340.0
26.6
2.01'*0
Sekotong EE 12.: 2!.: 424.: EE 511.6
Sheet EE 1!.: EE 419.: EE 433.:
<ro$led EE EE EE 27.: EE 27.:
Labua"i EE 1!.: EE EE EE 1!.:
90
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
Jediri EE 4!.: 9.: :.! EE 1:3.!
Juri"an
13:.:
!3.: EE 41!.: 2:.: 719.:
-armada EE EE EE 2.: EE 2.:
Lingsar EE 1:.! EE EE EE 1:.!
<n.Sari EE EE EE EE EE EE
Batu Layar EE 19.: EE EE EE 19.:
*a"e 33.: 1!.: EE EE EE 49.:
6inners EE 72.: !.: EE EE 7;.:
<anga EE 1::.! EE EE EE 1::.!
Jayangan EE EE ;.: EE EE ;.:
Bayan 7!.: 4:.: EE EE EE 1:!.:
3. Lombok
engah

335.
6

1*4'0.
0
50.6
1&*026.
2

2*'30.
6

14.31'*
3
6est %raya
24:.:
EE 33.: 2.442.: 14:.: 3.4:!.:
%raya
%o$er

11;.:
17.: EE !;9.: 7:;.: 1.319.:
%ujut EE !7:.: 72.: 4.349.: 2;7.: !.247.:
%raya 8ast EE 144.: EE 3.3!;.: EE 3.!:1.:
Dana"ria EE 71.! EE 24:.2 19.: 314.;
Jo"ang EE 3;.: EE EE EE 3;.:
%raya EE EE EE 7!3.: 333.: 497.:
%raya
*entral

3;2.:
2:4.: EE 4!;.: ;4:.: 2.2;3.:
Donggat EE 923.: EE 44!.: 3:3.: 1.!;1.:
Batukliang EE EE EE EE !9.: !9.:
4. Lombok imur GG GG GG '16.6 GG '16
Jeruak EE EE EE 42:.: EE 42:.:
8ast Sakra EE EE EE 4:.: EE 4:.:
otal
1*66
3

2.241*
0

1'6.
6

10.310*
3
2*'50
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he table above sho$s that the drought o# most severe in
Lombok Island $as occurred in 2::;. $hich is a""ro=imately
1!.;7!. ; hectares in 2::; due to rain#all a$ay #rom the rice
cro" $as about 2 $eeks. and the rain began again in late
,ebruary 2::;. &t this yearHs 8l -ino is on the island o# Lombok.
O# course. the result o# this drought is the loss (decrease) the
"roduction o# "addy C rice on the island o# Lombok. $hich in midE
2::; had been a scarcity o# rice in the market. $hile rice
demand is not decreasing. Xuantity reduction or loss o# rice
"roduction in 2::; could be "redicted. I# the "roductivity o#
"addy land in the island o# Lombok is about 4 E ! tons C ha. the
loss o# rice "roduction in 2::; $as a""ro=imately 73.:73 to
;9.924 tons. Similarly. in the year 2::9 that the number o#
acreage #or rice drought is the loss o# 244! ha o# "addy
"roduction in 2::9 is 449: to 12.4;! tons.
4.3.7. he 2ulnerability to the ,ailure o# +arvest
a. S%ena!$" 1 =ta/$n $nt" a%%"unt t9e >e+8a!e "8 t9e
7"7u+at$"n;
2ulnerability is calculated only on the total agricultural acreage
o# rain#ed rice. irrigated >elds. >elds. and "lantations. o
calculate the value o# the vulnerability o# the availability o# $ater
is used the #ollo$ing dataN
a. Land 3se y"e ('ice Irrigation and rain#ed rice >elds)
b. %ercentage o# %reE%ros"erous and %ros"erous Less
c. Slo"e
d. 'ain#all distribution "attern
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%rocedures and analytical techni@ues such as "rocedures and
analysis techni@ues in determining the level o# vulnerability o#
#ailed cro"s. 6eighting "rocedure is as in the #ollo$ing table.
Ta,+e '<10 6eighted every "arameter susce"tibility in the
scenario 1 (taking into account the $el#are o# the "o"ulation) to
assess the vulnerability o# cro" #ailures in Lombok Island

-o
%arameters
*od
e
&ccuracy
data
he in?uence
o# data
6eight
data
1 Land use ty"e tgl 3 3 !
2 %ercentage o# %reE%ros"erous
and %ros"erous Less
ks 2 3 4
3 Slo"e (slo"e) Jl
(s)
3 2 4
4 'ain#all distribution "attern *h 2 2 3
Jemudian hasil "embobotan data tersebut digunakan untuk
menghitung bobot dalam "erhitungan kerentanan dengan
metoda Pair ,ise Com%arison
C".e t+ S+ %9 /s t"ta+ N"!2a+
T+ 1N:: 2N:: 3N:: 4N:: 1:N:: :N4!
S+ :N!: 1N:: 2N:: 3N:: 7N!: :N24
C9 :N33 :N!: 1N:: 2N:: 3.93 :N1;
Ks :N2! :N33 :N!: 1N:: 2N:9 :N:4
22N42 1
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By using analytical methods and the same "rocedure as in the
analysis o# vulnerability to "lanting. then the ma""ing results
obtained $ith the #ollo$ing <IS.
F$u!e '.11 0a" o# the level o# vulnerability to cro" #ailure
bahayan scenario analysis 1 (taking into account the $el#are o#
the "o"ulation)
,. S%ena!$" 2 =>$t9"ut t9e >e+8a!e "8 t9e 7"7u+at$"n;
In scenario 1. the $el#are o# the "o"ulation sho$ed no real
diAerence to the vulnerability o# cro" #ailure. there#ore. the
#ollo$ing analysis (scenario 2) is taking into account the $el#are
o# the "o"ulation $ith the same "rocedure $ith the "rocedure in
scenario 1.
Ta,+e '<11 6eighted every "arameter susce"tibility in the
scenario 2 ($ithout considering the $el#are o# the "o"ulation) to
assess the vulnerability o# cro" #ailures in Lombok Island
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/ata *ode /ata &ccuracy In?uence /ata 6eight data
1. Land 3se y"e tgl 3 3 3
3. Slo"e Jl 3 2 2
4. 'ain#all distribution ch 1 3 1
t+ s+ %9 T"ta+ N"!2a+
T+ 1N:: 2N:: 3N:: 7N:: :.!24412
S+ :N!: 1N:: 2N:: 3N!: :.3:9924
C9 :N33 :N!: 1N:: 1.93 :.171;7!
11N33 1
F$u!e '.12 0a" o# the level o# vulnerability to the danger o#
cro" #ailure scenario analysis 2 ($ithout considering the $el#are
o# the "o"ulation)
he results o# the analysis o# scenario 1 and scenario 2 on the
vulnerability analysis o# #ailed harvests sho$ed no signi>cant
diAerence. his means that the $el#are o# the "o"ulation #actor
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does not mean im"ortant in determining the level o# vulnerability
o# cro"s on the island o# Lombok. his indicates that cro" #ailure
is determined by climate variability (rain#all conditions) at the
time o# rice in "remordial "hase. "hase o# "ollination and C or
"hase grains dikes (1: E1! be#ore harvest). I# this "hase occurs
at the #re@uency and intensity o# rain#all is very high $hich is
accom"anied by a highEs"eed $ind o# the "otential threat o#
danger (ha(ard) o# cro" #ailure is very high. hat is. the @uantity
and @uality o# "roduction decline.
2ulnerability associated $ith some areas on the island o# Lombok
to the danger o# the drought can be seen #ollo$ing the drought o#
actual data #or the rice cro" acreage and cro"s on the island o#
Lombok in the last #e$ years.
/rought data in the table above I2.14 is in sync $ith the ma" on
the image above I2.12. the majority o# districts in *entral
Lombok regency and 6est Lombok drought aAected. In addition.
the 2::;C2::9 "lanting season a #e$ districts in *entral Lombok
/istrict did not esca"e the drought as the data listed in the
#ollo$ing tableN
Ta,+e '<13 drought disaster area #or lo$land rice cro"s in the
island o# Lombok 2::;C2::9 "lanting season (-ovember 2::; E
0arch 2::9) and the dry season in 2::9 (/e"artment o#
&griculture -B. 2::4)
'egency C
*ity
Sub Si1e and intensity o# droughts (+a)
Lo$
0ediu
m

+eav
y
,ailed
harvest

otal
1. Lombok
imur
: : : : :
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2. 0ataram : : : : :
3. 6est
Lombok
: : 2: : 2:
4. Lombok
engah
6est %raya 22 19 13 9; 14:
%raya Barat
/aya
1!: 74 147 242 7:;
%ujut 47 41 !4 3: 2;7
Dana"ria 7 2 1: : 19
%raya *entral 42: 237 94 : ;4:
Donggat : 12! 1:9 ;: 3:3
Batukliang 49 1: : : !9
otal
1.::
:
7:1 4!! 434
2.44
!
/ata in the table above illustrates that the region is highly
vulnerable to drought $hich caused cro" #ailure is the *entral
Lombok district because the area is rain #ed rice area larger area
irrigated in acreage. /rought data in the table above are also in
sync $ith the "icture above I2.12. /rought not only occurred in
2::9. but occurred also in the "revious year in the year o#
2::7C2::;. and u"on rice and corn cro"s. In addition to override
the rice "lant. cro"s are also e="eriencing drought. Overall. the
drought that hit the rice cro" in 2::9 $as in the district o# 6est
Lombok and *entral Lombok sho$n in the #ollo$ing table
Ta,+e '<14 he intensity o# drought on the island o# Lombok to
the rice cro" in 2::9 (/e"artment o# &griculture -B. 2::4)
.
*ommodities
/istrict /rought intensity otal

Light$eight
$as +eavy %uso
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'ice ,ields 6est Lombok 14.991.!:
2.:!4
;42.! 1::
22.;;9.::
Lombok engah !.!;7.::
1.:;3
2:3 : 7.9!2.::
%adi <ogo 6est Lombok 1.393
444.4
23 1: 2.41!
2;: 27: 134 9 7;;
Based on observations o# the -B &gricultural drought in the
island o# Lombok is based on actual "roblems in the >eld so #e$
alternatives that can be e="ected to co"e $ith drought on the
island o# Lombok.
Ta,+e '<15 Identi>cation and alternative handling to the
drought disaster area
Location
Irrigation 'egion
rouble &lternative
roubleshooting
6est Lombok
(sub Sekotong.
Sheets and
Juri"an)
ertiary irrigation
channels damaged
so ineAicient in
the distribution o#
irrigation $ater
Im"rovement -et$ork
(Dides. Ditut) through
#unds % (%L&).
*oordination $ith
related institutions
(government. Ba""eda.
%3 and the *entral
Basin) o# the #unds)
Lombok engah
(%raya Barat
/istrict. 6est
%raya. %raya.
*entral %raya.
Donggat)
Ra$n>ate! a!ea $n
*entral Lombok
(Sub %ujut and
Dana"ria)
1. /eviation o#
rain#all
distribution
2. Some
#armers did
not a""ly
the system
<ora
/evelo"ment ,acility
/evelo"ment embung
$ater through the
construction and the
$ell catchment.
Sociali1ation and
coordination meeting
S'I technology
a""lication "atterns
and %
0eeting cro""ing and
a""lication. $hich
re#ers to the
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Agriculture Sector
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Location
Irrigation 'egion
rouble &lternative
roubleshooting
availability o# $ater
and a$igEbased a$ig.
'ain#all #orecasts
sociali1ation at the
beginning o# each
gro$ing season
&nother e=am"le is the case on the basis o# observations in
2::9C2::4 gro$ing season (-ovember 2::9 "lanting time and
harvest season beginning in 0arch 2::4) in several villages in
the district Donggat. %ringgarata. %ujut /istrictI /istrict o# 6est
%raya decreased @uantity and @uality o# rice cro"s. In vegetative
gro$th o# rice is very good. but at the time o# rice ?o$ering
"hase and "remordial (#ertili1ation) during the third $eek until
the #ourth $eek o# ,ebruary occurs the #re@uency and intensity
o# rain#all accom"anied by high $inds. &t that routinely occur
and must be e="erienced on the island o# Lombok are called by
-yale season. namely natural events such discharge in the
coastal marine $orms Juta South Lombok ha""ens every year.
his event is celebrated on a large scale by the "eo"le o# *entral
Lombok. and is o#ten used by local communities as an indicator
to "redict "otential rain#all that year. I# the "o"ulation o# marine
$orms are out in considerable amounts estimated by the local
community that the "otential o# rain#all on the island o# Lombok
is above average. +o$ever. it is necessary scienti>c research by
linking it $ith modern *limate Science. the events o# 8l -ino and
La -ina and 8-SO and SOI.
Based on the results o# the analysis o# the ma" in the scenario 1
and scenario 2. the rice "addies on the island o# Lombok has a
varying level o# vulnerability. namely #rom the vulnerable. very
vulnerable and very vulnerable time. +ighly vulnerable areas.
99
Agriculture Sector
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generally occurs in the rain#ed areas in South Lombok. In this
area the a""lication o# rice #arming that )ogorancah system
using the earnings schedule changes because it is relatively
diAicult to al$ays mualai "lanting season #ollo$ing the start o#
the rainy "attern. <enerally. began "lanting (%ortugal rice seeds
$ithout "uddles o# $ater) #or "addy <ogorancah system is in
midE-ovember $hen the rain#all reached 7: mm. I# %ortugal
brought #or$ard the start time (eg early -ovember) the rain
$ater into the main constraint. and i# the time %ortugal $as
"ost"oned until the end o# -ovember so there is concern about
the dangers o# lack o# rain during the rice is in accumulation
"hase or the last "remordial. here#ore. the start time o#
"lanting can be set only (advanced or delayed #rom the original
"lanting schedule) to avoid the dangers o# the #re@uency and
intensity o# rain#all accom"anied by strong $inds during
"ollination and grain to the "hase be#ore harvest (grain
maturation).
Basically. #armers in the area o# land irrigated >elds generally
make an eAort to gro$ 3 times a year. In the >rst season (rainy
season) are o"timistic $ill be $ell managed i# they are not #aced
$ith danger (ha(ard) in the "eriod be#ore the harvest "remordia
and as a result o# the high #re@uency and intensity o# rain#all and
strong $inds. But the success o# the second and third season is
highly de"endent on the level o# $ater availability and ,ater
balance. ,ood cro" "roduction in the second season and third
season $ill be very lo$ risk o# cro" #ailure even i# the rain#all and
the availability o# $ater de>cit. here#ore. the necessary
selection o# #ood cro"s ('ood cro%s) #or the second "lanting
season and third in each year according to need and availability
o# $ater based on in#ormation #rom the OAice JI0%'&S6IL the
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irrigation and $eather (the start o# the rainy season and
"otential rain#all o# the season) by B0<.
%2B- associated $ith -B Lombok Island is some thing that
needs serious attention in a coordinated. collaborative and
"artici"atory every institution and aAiliated institutions. namely
the ada"tation strategies #or areas that are vulnerable and highly
vulnerable. ,or irrigated rice >eld area is semiEtechnical and
tertiary irrigation channels need renovated @uarter to "revent
the high @uantity o# $ater lost through see"age in the channel
be#ore it reached the area. &s #or rain#ed areas o# in#ormation
needed "rediction (#orecasting) the beginning o# the rainy season
and rain#all "otential by B0<. hus. #armers can be #acilitated
and commanded by the OAice o# &griculture in determining the
a""ro"riate time to start "lanting and selection o# varieties.
selection o# cro"s other than rice. In addition. #armers $ho have
>elds that are vulnerable and highly vulnerable should be
directed to select the ty"e o# "lants that $ill be attem"ted by
taking into account the characteristics o# $ater in addition to
taking into account the needs o# its market o""ortunities.
In addition. #armers can also be directed to diversi#y by dividing
"ro"ortionately >elds #or "lanting other cro"s o# high economic
value cro"s other than rice. his means that during the rainy
season. #armers should not "lant rice in the rice >eld areaI the
more rice is a cro" that is very much needed $ater. he "ur"ose
o# diversi>cation in the >eld o# vulnerable and very vulnerable to
lo$ rain#all is to ensure certainty in case o# cro" $ater de>cit
(during the short rainy season) then the #armer has a harvest o#
ho"e #or other cro"s besides rice.
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4.4. 'isk &nalysis
In this &ct the /isaster 0anagement e="lained that the de>nition
o# disaster risk is the "otential losses arising #rom disasters in an
area $ithin a certain "eriod $hich can be a death. injury. illness.
li#e is threatened. loss o# sense o# security. evacuation. damage.
or loss o# "ro"erty and disru"tion community activities. In
general. the risk can be inter"reted as a "ossibility $hich can
cause harm. $hether in the #orm o# material. loss o# li#e. as $ell
as environmental damage. 'isk can also be inter"reted as a
"ossibility that could damage the social order. society and the
environment caused by the interaction bet$een ha1ards and
vulnerability.
On the basis o# the conce"t o# disaster. the variables associated
$ith disaster are a variable hazards, vulnerabilities and
disaster risks$ he third linkage variable is the level o# disaster
risk is a #unction o# the level o# disaster threat vulnerability to
s"eci>c threats in the event o# disaster (disaster). he conce"t o#
risk reduction can be #ormulated in relation to an e@uation $here
the risk reduction as a #unction o# threat or danger (ha(ard)&
vulnerability and "ositive values o# a community against the
threat o# disaster. his is $hat is kno$n as the ability or
resilience (Ca%acity ? C). ,ormula relevance o# each #actor can
be e="ressed in the e@uation ' Q + = 2. $here ' Q 'isk. + Q
:a(ard (+a1ard). and 2 Q Vulnerability (vulnerability).
Susce"tibility varies inversely $ith the ca"acity. and can be
e="ressed in the #ollo$ing #ormulas.
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he e@uation above sho$s that the variable ca"acity inversely
"ro"ortional to the level o# risk. he level o# risk is strongly
in?uenced by the level o# ca"acity (*) and vulnerability (2).
hus. i# a community has a level higher susce"tibility com"ared
to the ca"acity value. the value o# a high level o# risk.
*onversely. i# the level o# community ca"acity higher than the
level kerentannya level o# risk $ill be lo$er.
&nalysis and #ollo$ing discussion #ocuses on the "otential risk o#
the agricultural sector. es"ecially rice #arming. that is. the risk o#
#ailed cro"s. "remordial #ailed. and #ailed harvests as a result o#
climate change. o calculate the value o# the vulnerability o# the
availability o# $ater is used the #ollo$ing dataN
a) Land 3se y"e ('ice Irrigation and rain #ed rice >elds)
b) %ercentage o# %reE%ros"erous and %ros"erous Less
c) Slo"e
d) 'ain#all distribution "attern
4.4.1. he 'isk o# %lanting ,ailure and the ,ailure o# %re 0ordial
"rocess
his analysis through t$o scenarios. taking into account the level
o# $el#are o# the "o"ulation (scenario 1) and $ithout taking into
account the level o# $el#are o# the "o"ulation (scenario 2).
Involving the $el#are o# the "o"ulation as a #actor in the analysis
is because o# the assum"tion that "oor "eo"le vulnerable to
climate change because o# their ability or resilience in ada"ting
to relatively lo$. so the "otential risks to be #aced due to climate
change $ill be high. hus. it can be said that the $el#are o# the
"o"ulation considered to aAect the level o# resilience (Ca%acity ?
C) in the #ace o# risk. he #ollo$ing ma" is the result o# analysis
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o# the "otential risk o' 'ailed cro%s in the scenario 1 ($ith the
$el#are o# the "o"ulation) and Scenario 2 (regardless o# the level
o# $el#are o# the "o"ulation).
%lant ,ailure risk is very lo$
(Scenario 1)
he risk o# "lanting #ailure is very
lo$ (Scenario 2))
%lant ,ailure 'isk Lo$ (Scenario
1)
%lant ,ailure 'isk 0edium
(Skenario2)
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F$u!e '.1& 0a" o# the lo$ risk level o# ha1ard analysis #ailed "lanting
scenario 1 and scenario 2
0edium 'isk o# "lanting #ailure
(Scenario 1)
0edium 'isk o# "lanting #ailure
(Scenario 2)
+igh risk o# "lanting #ailure
(Scenario 1)
+igh risk o# "lanting #ailure
(Scenario 2)
F$u!e '.1' 0a" o# the moderate risk level E high against the dangers o#
#ailed "lanting scenario analysis scenarios 1 and 2
105
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On the ma" above can be seen that there are 4 levels o# risk o#
#ailing cro"s. the risk o# "lanting #ailure o# lo$. medium. high and
very high. both #or scenario 1 and scenario 2.
'esults o# analysis sho$ed that there $as no signi>cant
diAerence bet$een scenario 1 and scenario 2 #or the level o# lo$
risk and #ailure are "lanted. he diAerence only lies in the
number o# areas (districts) $ith a higher risk o# #ailed cro"s. the
number o# districts at risk o# #ailure is relatively high "lanting
more #or the scenario 1 com"ared $ith the number o# areas
(districts) that #ail to "lant highErisk scenario 2. In scenario 1.
subEdistrict o# 8ast %raya Jayangan and is gro$ing status as a
high risk o# #ailure (indicated by the color orange on the ma").
$hile in scenario 2 the t$o districts are bersatus risk o# "lanting
#ailure is (marked in yello$ on the ma").
4.4.2. he 'isk o# +arvest ,ailure
&nalysis o# the risk o# cro" #ailure rate is start $ith scenario 1
(taking into account the level o# $el#are o# the "o"ulation). in
order to "rove $hether the level o# $el#are o# the "o"ulation
aAects the vulnerability o# cro" #ailure. It turned out that the
analysis sho$s that the $el#are "o"ulation is not a #actor
aAecting the level o# risk o# cro" #ailure. here#ore. the analysis
conducted by Scenario 2 (regardless o# the level o# $el#are o# the
"o"ulation).
In the ma" can be seen the diAerence and similarities cro"
#ailure risk level o# each district bet$een the results o# scenario
analysis scenarios 1 and 2. he level o# risk o# cro" #ailure is
very lo$. lo$. medium and high #or scenario 1 and scenario 2
there is no signi>cant diAerence. his indicates that the $el#are
levels o# the "o"ulation do not have real im"act on the risk o#
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Agriculture Sector
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cro" #ailure on the island o# Lombok. hus. it can be concluded
that the risk o# cro" #ailure associated $ith the "arameters
dominant ty"e o# agricultural land (irrigated >elds and C or
rain$ater). the "attern o# rain#all and slo%e (slo"e) area.

he risk o# cro" #ailure is very lo$
(Scenario 1)
he risk o# cro" #ailure is very lo$
(Scenario 2)
+arvest ,ailure +a1ard 'isk Lo$
(Scenario 1)
+arvest ,ailure +a1ard 'isk Lo$
(Scenario 2)
F$u!e '.10 0a" o# the moderate risk level o# the danger o#
107
Agriculture Sector
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cro" #ailure analysis scenarios 1 and 2
+a1ard 'isk 0edium ,ailed +arvest
(Scenario 1)
+a1ard 'isk 0edium ,ailed +arvest
(Scenario 2)
+arvest ,ailure 'isk +igh
(scenario 1)
+arvest ,ailure 'isk +igh
(scenario 2)
F$u!e '.11 0a" o# the moderate risk level E high against
the danger o# cro" #ailure analysis scenarios scenarios 1
and 2
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CHAPTER 0. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
STRATEGIES OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
!.1. &""roach and Strategy ,aced $ith *limate *hange in
&griculture Sector
%ossible emergence o# danger (ha(ard) #ailed cro"s. cro" #ailure
and decrease the risk o# @uantity and @uality o# rice "roduction
high enough to areas vulnerable to climate change on the island
o# Lombok. 6arming and global climate change may also #eel
the im"act on the agricultural sector at regional and national
levels. *limate change is indicated among others by shi#ting the
"lanting season and harvest the rice should be antici"ated to
minimi1e the im"act o# ha1ards (:a(ard) and the risk o# harm #or
areas that are vulnerable. o obtain the climate change re@uires
t$o major eAorts in res"onse. namely 2$t$at$"n and
a.a7tat$"n. he second eAort is a res"onse to climate change
that a""roach can be described in the #ollo$ing scheme.
109
Impact
Climate change
Haa!d
Adaptati
onn
"itigation
Re#pon
#e
$ulne!abilit
%
Ri#&
Agriculture Sector
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F$u!e 0.1 schematic a""roaches to the eAort against climate
change
*limate change is ha""ening on the island o# Lombok in all its
eAects are #elt in society and relatively diAicult to avoid.
here#ore. the eAorts o# ada"tation and mitigation needs to be
done to "re"are yoursel# in antici"ation o# the move $ith the
im"act that may occur. he eAort o# ada"tation to climate change
im"acts that $ill occur re@uire diAerent strategies. such as
ada"tation to drought. a shi#t in the rainy season. the #re@uency
changes and the @uantity o# rain#all and other e=treme events.
,or e=am"le. to "re"are themselves in the #ace o# e=treme events
(8l -ino and La -ina) is done by handling the strategic "lanning
in case o# natural disasters o# drought (drought). storms and
?oods. he #ollo$ing image illustrates the "rocedure and the
grand strategies #or co"ing $ith climate change.
110
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
.
F$u!e 0.2 )rand 0esign trategies ,acing the Im"act o#
*limate *hange
In the #ace o# climate change to ada"t to the conditions o# a
changing environment re@uires the $illingness and ability to
take advantage o# e=isting o""ortunities. 8lement $illingness.
111
Co-ordination,
collaboration,
participation, and
representation
Purpose and
Targets in facing
the Climate
change
Action Re#ea!ch
Alte!nati'e begin planting !ice in
i!!igated a!ea# in each Regional I!!igation
(DI gap )ate *+ DI and DI ,ebong Dam
-atu.ai)
Alte!nati'e patte!n /ith the
p!opo!tion o0 land planted to !ice
1eld# and c!op# in the !ain% #ea#on
2a!ticipation and in'ol'ing e'e!%
element o0 go'e!nment 0!om the
'illage chie0+ 3au! De'elopment+
i!!igation 4b#e!'e!+ philte! (inte!p!ete!#
i!!igation /ate!) in each )uba&+ 5"4+
Di#t!ict Ag!icultu!al 46ce+ the 46ce o0
the i!!igation 3I"2RA)5I7+ Contact#
0a!m+ Fa!me!# ,!oup and
!ep!e#entati'e# o0 0a!me!#
Di#cu## and ag!ee on
app!op!iate planting
#chedule+ t%pe o0 c!op#
planted and the t%pe o0
!ice 'a!ietie#
)chedule the di'i#ion and
di#t!ibution o0 i!!igation
/ate!
5o!& )hop+ Focu#
,!oup Di#cu##ion
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
ability and o""ortunity (chance) o# each institution. the
com"etent institution may be im"lemented and actuali1ed by the
ada"tation strategy o# the )rand 0esign trategy ,acing Im"acts
o# *limate *hange as illustrated in the >gure !.2 above.
!.2. conce"t o# Integrated &da"tation Strategies
&da"tation is an adjustment action system o# "hysical and social
environments $ith some a""roaches to dealing "erinsi" "otential
negative im"acts o# climate change. & sim"le e=am"le is the
handling o# environmental issues in the area o# rice >elds by
"lanting &lbasia (turi). making an emergency embung in rain#ed
areas. using su"erior seed @uality is an old genjah ada"tation
activities to climate change. In addition. eAorts to reduce
"overty in rural areas are also an ada"tation o# activities #or the
"oor are most vulnerable to the im"acts o# climate change
because they lack the ability to ada"t. his is analogous also to
the ada"tation to the "ossibility o# storms on the coast due to
climate change by "lanting mangrovesI due to the e=istence o#
mangrove #orests $ill be able to reduce the "ossibility o# danger
(ha(ard) coastal erosion and sea$ater intrusion into #resh $ater
sources due to rising sea levels. +o$ever. all these activities
need to be strengthened $ith due regard to the im"lementation
"rinci"les o# integrated environmental management $hich $as
then called the "rinci"le o# mitigation or ada"tation include
integrated $ith the analysis and assessment (assessment) about
the im"acts o# climate change.
&da"tation eAorts are not only the res"onsibility o# one
government agency. but the res"onsibility o# the "arties in
accordance $ith the #unctions and com"etence. here are at
112
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
least 9 (eight) the "rinci"le o# mitigation and C or ada"tations
that need to be integrated in the activities concern the
ada"tation o# the action (1) *oordination. (2) *ollaboration. (3)
%artici"ation C Involvement. along $ith the $illingness. ability.
o""ortunity or chance. (4) 'e"resentation (re"rsentati#). (!)
%o$er ca"acity (Carrying Ca%acity)& (7) 8@uity (E9uity)& (;)
%riority Scale. (9) Sustainability (sustainable) agricultural natural
resources in the environmental as"ects. socioEcultural and
economic . hen. it can "erinsi" se$n into a system in the #orm
o# the #ollo$ing scheme.
113
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote

HASIL ADAPTASI
&er'indar dari an(a)an %a'a*a gagal tana)+ gagal anen
,erentanan renda'
&er'indar dari $esi-o gagal anen+ enurunan 'asil rodu-si+
se'ingga -iner.a -eta'anan angan tida- terganggu
Pengelolaan su)%erda*a ertanian !su)%erda*a 'a*ati+
%iodiversit*" %er-elan.utan
/as*ara-at se.a'tera

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F$u!e 0.& 2alue *hain (Value Chain) integrated ada"tation to
climate change im"acts
2alue chain in ,igure !.3 above sho$s the #unctions and
relationshi"s bet$een agencies. relevant agencies and
stakeholders (stakeholders) to mitigate and C or ada"tation to the
im"acts o# climate change. +igher 8ducation institutions as a
114
(ni)ersities
and research
institution
Colabo!atio
n
"eteo!olog% and
,eoph%#ic#
$*"C(&T($& '+$O( C,"+-
C$.$T
/$T+"#* %(P+0"%O
0"&&$*+ C,"+-
$daptation esult
A'oided 0!om the haa!d o0 planting 0ailu!e+ ha!'e#t 0ailu!e
7o/ 'ulne!albilit%
A'oided 0!om Ha!'e#t 0ailu!e !i#&+ the dec!ea#ing o0 the
p!oduction+ #o the p!oduction in 0ood /on=t be di#tu!bed
The maintainin o0 ag!icultu!e !e#ou!ce (ea!thl% !e#o!ce+
biodi'e!#it%) continue#
The /el0a!e o0 the #ociet%
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
source o# e="erts in collaboration $ith 66,. B0J<. Local
<overnment Board (related agencies). as B&%%8/&.
8nvironmental Im"act 0anagement &gency 'egional
(B&%8/&L/&). related agencies. then relevant agencies $ithin
the <overnment to collaborate and coordinate $ith technical
agencies at the district and village level by involving the
technical institutions in the country. Ideally. agencies or related
institutions that can #unction and "artici"ate in a com"etence
based value chain in the direction "enenetuan and ada"tation
strategies. +igher 8ducation in collaboration $ith institutions
and agencies. in areas related instasi to actuali1e the #unctions
and role and com"etence to do scienti>c studies to locate and
determine the conce"ts. methods and alternative ada"tation
strategies. ,or e=am"le. the determination o# technologically
innovative ada"tation "ackage that tested locally and
economically #easible (>nancially "ro>table and economically)
and socially acce"ted by communities culture. hen. $ith a
bottom+u% mechanisms involving %3&. 60O. ,armers <rou".
contact ani. "hilter and #armers in rural areas $hich is a #orm o#
"artici"ation and real kerte$akilan element in determining the
direction and ada"tation strategies.
Basically 2alue *hain in ,igure !.3 above still sho$s the
relationshi" bet$een scienti>c institutions (universities) and
other relevant agencies to "roduce a conce"t. methods and
ada"tation strategies. his value chain $ill actually $ork in the
local action (real action) in the ada"tation i# it is rein#orced by
elements o# t9e >$++$nness* a,$+$t- and "77"!tun$t- o# each
institution and related agencies as $ell as the "arties $ho take
interest (stake holders). hat is. the real action ada"tation to the
im"acts o# climate change must start $ith a$areness and a
115
Agriculture Sector
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strong $illingness #rom each institution and related agencies.
and su""orted by the ability and o""ortunity (chance) o# each
element involved. hree elements (the $illingness. ability and
o""ortunity) is a uni>ed system that is inse"arable. so one o#
these elements does not e=ist. ada"tation o# the "rogram $ill
never actuali1ed. his means that the increase in the ability o#
ada"tation $ill "rovide the ability to survive (Resilience) that
$ill su""ress and reduce the level o# vulnerability.
Increased ada"tability is not only #ocused on eAorts to overcome
the bio"hysical changes in the environment. but also including
institutional ca"acity and develo"ment o# socioEeconomic
resilience o# the community. Similarly. even i# there is
o""ortunity and ability. but $ithout a $ill and a strong
a$areness o# the ada"tation can not be im"lemented "ro"erly.
6illingness and ability $ithout any o""ortunity (chance) $ill be
similar to a delusion or a brilliant "lan but no action. here#ore.
to reali1e the elements o# the $illingness. ability and o""ortunity
$ill re@uire regulations and "olicies that must be understood and
obeyed by the various layers. his illustrates that the as"ect o#
"ublic a$areness about the im"act o# climate change as it has
been "ublished in the 6ork %lan 0ainstreaming ask ,orce on
<lobal *limate *hange in 6est -usa enggara.
!.3. Strategi &da"tasi Lahan Sa$ah adah +ujan
'ice #arming on the island o# Lombok dominant im"lemented in
rain#ed rice >elds. es"ecially in Southern Lombok Island. he
total area o# rain#ed rice in 6est -usa enggara in 2::7 reached
32.:2: hectares (-B in ,igures. 2::7) and most (!:L) are in
116
Agriculture Sector
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Southern Lombok Island. 'ain#ed rice >elds is dominated by the
ground very heavy vertisol "rocessing because the soil is very
sticky $hen vertisol $et (rainy season). $hereas i# the dry hard
soil and "lace cracking (cracked).
In the years be#ore the 149:s. #arming communities in the South
Lombok make rice #arming in rain#ed rice >elds (rain'ed) by
a""lying !an%a9 s-ste2 ("addy rice). he #armers began
"lanting rice a#ter the rainy season $hich begins $ith a nursery
("ollination seeds) because the source o# irrigation $ater #or rice
cro"s in rain#ed rice >elds in this area is only rain $ater.
%lanting rice rancah system is o#ten e="erienced danger (ha(ard)
"uso even cro" #ailure due to drought at risk o# #ood shortages o#
basic (rice). #or e=am"le. the danger o# drought (drought) that
occurred in the 147:s (147;. 1479. 1474) and the 14;:s. the
years 14;2. 14;3. until 14;;). here#ore. in the year 149:. rice
"roduction technology $ere trans#ered to im"lement the systems
o# )ogorancah (<ora) $hich is a merger o# t$o rice #arming
systems. gogo system and rancah system.
'e"eated drought in 2::7C2::; gro$ing season. so in Danuary
and ,ebruary 2::; there $ere hundreds o# hectares o# rain#ed
rice in *entral Lombok /istrict %ujut. Dero$aru /istrict and 8ast
Lombok /istrict Jeruak "lant #ailure as a result o# drought and
caused a decline in rice su%%ly Lombok Island. his indicates
that climate change has sho$n its im"act on agriculture in the
island o# Lombok. $hich means that the agricultural sector
vulnerable to climate change. here#ore. to antici"ate and
su""ress the emergence o# danger (ha(ard) #ailed cro"s and cro"
#ailure #or several districts o# rain#ed $etErice cultivation is
highly vulnerable to climate change. ada"tation strategies are
re@uired.
117
Agriculture Sector
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Ve!- Vu+ne!a,+e t" t9e 8a$+e.
7+ant
118
Agriculture Sector
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%ada On vulnerability and risk ma"s have identi>ed several
districts on the island o# Lombok is vulnerable to the dangers o#
drought and high risk o# #ailed cro"s in "otal .un !' # ('O)
minimum. ie #rom ::7; to ::79 mm C month. 'O illustrates the
"otential ha1ard level (:a(ard) #ailed to "lant rice in the island o#
Lombok in the year 2:11 to 2:2: $ith S'B1 and high S'&1B is
$eighing the danger o# :.;! (;!L). 6hile the S'B1 in 2:21 to
2:3: at least 'O :112. and 2:31 to 2:4: at least :114 'O
#ailed to illustrate that the "otential #or lo$ "lant $ith a :N2! risk
$eights (2!L). But in the year 2:21 E2:3: $ith 'O S'&1B at
least ::9: described the "otential ha1ard rate (ha(ard) are
classi>ed as dangerous $eight :.!: (!:L).
Sub is #e!- #u+ne!a,+e t" 8a$+$n %!"7s and highErisk includeN
(1) -orth Lombok 'egency is the /istrict and Sub %arrot
+eavenI (2) *entral Lombok 'egency is the /istrict o# 6est %aya.
119
Planting Failure Risk
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
%raya Barat /aya /istrict. %raya 8ast. "artly in /istrict Jo"ang
and %ringgarataI (3) 8ast Lombok 'egency is Dero$aru /istrict.
/istrict Jeruak. some in districts SuelaI (4) region o# 6est
Lombok is "art o# the district and Lingsar gro$led. 2ery high
risk is caused by #actors o# high vulnerability to drought $hich
led to #ailed cro"s.
here are t$o alternatives #or local ada"tation strategies that
have #ailed the risk o# "lanting rice. $hich is
1. %rograms and activities to ensure the diversi>cation o#
cro" harvest certainty.
St!ate-< 8nsure certainty harvest cro"s at harvest
$ithout just relying on rice as the main cro".
a. %rogram 1N 3tili1ation o# alternative ty"es o# nonE
"addy cro"s o# high economic value
o &ctivity 1N getting nonE"addy cro"s o# high economic
value and suited to the &groEclimate regions. such as
long beans #or vegetables. s$eet corn. soybeans and C
or cayenne "e""er.
o &ctivity 2N *reate a rain bin $ith a one meterEdee"
channel $ith a $idth o# around !: cm in rice >elds
and C or in the middle o# rice >elds.
o &ctivity 3N *am"aigns and <uidance to #armers about
the economic bene>ts o# nonErice cro" cultivation as
a climate change ada"tation eAorts in rain#ed rice
>eld. &ctivities $ere im"lemented under the
coordination and guidance o# the /istrict &griculture
OAice and local districts.
b. %rogram 2N Strengthening the im"lementation o# rice
#arming systems through costEeAective gogorancah
rice #arming system gogorancah 6ithout Olah anah
(O) $ith su"erior varieties o# rice "lanting $as
genjah.
o &ctivity 1N disseminating and cam"aigning on rice
cultivation system <ogorancah Olah 6ithout Land
120
Agriculture Sector
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(O) in $etErice cultivation areas daearh rain$ater.
<ogorancah a major mainstay o# rice #arming
systems in rain#ed areas o# South Lombok. B%%
study results sho$ed that the O <ogorancah have
an advantage in terms o# economic as agronomist
and soil ty"e vertisol in South Lombok easily become
muddy i# it has been inundated by $ater. 'ice "lants
need soil that is silt. so "elum"uran to land relatively
vertisol through "rocessing is not re@uired.
o &ctivity 2N cam"aigning on the bene>ts o# the use o#
su"erior varieties o# rice and old genjah $ithstand
drought as climate change ada"tation eAorts.
o &ctivity 3N >nd the kind o# old rice varieties genjah by
net $orking $ith the *entral 'esearch grains to
obtain a variety o# su"erior @uality and genjah old
drought resistant.
he second #actor that is o#ten encountered in rain#ed rice >eld is
the risk o# cro" #ailure. On the #ollo$ing ma"s have been
identi>ed vulnerable districts and the high risk o# cro" #ailure.
*olors on the ma" indicates the level o# risk o# cro" #ailure. But
in $ritten statements ,ailure 'isk %lanting. is su""osed Ha!#est
Fa$+u!e R$s/.
Me.$u2 Ha!#est 8a$+u!e
121
Agriculture Sector
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H$9 Ha!#est Fa$+u!e R$s/
'isk o# cro" #ailure caused by t$o alternative dangers. dangers
that rain#all $as very "oor at the time o# rice through a "hase
"remordial. and rain#all is very large $ith high $inds on
"remordial and "ollination "hase (see discussion in *ha"ter 4).
&lternative strategies #or regional ada"tation have the rice cro"
#ailure riskN
1. %rograms and rain $ater harvesting in the rainy season.
St!ate-< 8nsure the availability o# $ater in the area o#
rice >elds to irrigate cro"s during the rain does not occur.
o &ctivities 1N ,acilitate and encourage #armers to
make small embungEembung (,ater+%ounds) at the
#armerHs rice acreage to harvest rain $ater (,ater
122
Agriculture Sector
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harvesting) since long rainy season is relatively
short.
0aking embung #or rain $ater harvesting conducted
in areas "rone to drought as some villages in the
/istrict %ujut. %raya Barat /aya /istrict and /istrict
Dero$aru. he results o# the analysis illustrates that
these districts are highly vulnerable to drought
because the area has a rain#all distribution is uneven
and the duration o# the rainy season is relatively
short. +o$ever. generally in certain months such as
at the end o# ,ebruary until mid 0arch occurred the
#re@uency and intensity o# rain#all is relatively high.
so the im"act on reducing the @uantity and @uality o#
rice cro"s.
o &ctivity 2N ,acilitating #armers to conduct site visit
(>eld tri"s) to villages that have been im"lemented
rain $ater harvesting by making embung. ite visit
aims to sho$ direct rain $ater harvesting model $ith
embung making.
In the year 2::; to 2::9 no less than 1:: "ieces o#
small embung sel# is constructed by the #armers in
the village and the village o# &ll Ja$o &nyar %ujut
*entral Lombok /istrict. his indicates that #armers
are a$are o# the dangers (ha(ards) o# climate
change.
2. 8m"o$erment "rograms and activities o# "oor #armers
St!ate-< Strengthening the ability o# "oor communities
to ada"t to climate change.
123
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
a. %rogram 1 N 8m"o$ering the "oor are vulnerable to
climate change to be able to ada"t in the #ace o#
climate change. his em"o$erment should be done
because o# the im"act o# climate change is #elt most
by the "oor. the community grou"s more vulnerable
to climate change.
o &ctivity 1N +el"ing the "oor to im"rove their
ca"acity to ada"t in the #ace o# climate change by
"roviding material assistance and C or >nancial to
make embung.
o &ctivity 2N 8m"o$ering #arming communities
through "overty alleviation "rograms to increase
economic ca"acity o# society. he "oor are common
in rain#ed areas o# South Lombok $ho des"ite having
a "lot o# "addy >elds. but the ability to harvest
rain$ater by building embung very lo$. his
illustrates that the "re "ros"erous society vulnerable
to the im"acts o# climate change.
b. %rogram 2N Increased ca"acity o# the "eo"le embung
ca"acity o# e=isting
o &ctivity 1N &ssist and #acilitate the "easant
communities that already have embung to renovate
embungnya e="eriencing "endangkalan.
In essence. the im"act o# climate change on rain#ed
areas o# South Lombok is antici"ated to build
"eo"leHs embung by individual #armers and grou"s.
+o$ever. conditions in embung rain#ed #arming areas
o# South Lombok e="erienced many "endangkalan
124
Agriculture Sector
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(sedimentation). o increase the ca"acity o# the
rain$ater bin embung e="eriencing "endangkalan
(sedimentation) should be renovated (dredging) to
#acilitate the #armers $ith >nancial assistance or
e@ui"ment.
o &ctivity 2N 0otivating the #armers through e=tension
services need to harvest rain $ater by making
embung in rice >eld acreage.
3. %rograms and activities o# ada"tation to rain#allEterm
uncertainty and the relatively short time $ith the use o#
su"erior @uality rice varieties that genjah old.
St!ate-< %revention o# cro" #ailure due to lack o# rain#all
and short rainy season in rain#ed areas.
a. %rogram 1N 8nsuring certainty rice cro" #armers
through increased understanding o# the bene>ts o#
using old rice varieties as genjah climate change
ada"tation eAorts in rain#ed areas
o &ctivity 1N 0otivating the breeder seeds to "roduce
rice seed @uality and su"erior genjah old.
o &ctivity 2N %rovide assistance to subsidi1e #armers
$ith rice seeds genjah old.
b. %rogram 2N Sociali1ation and cam"aigns use various
rice varieties and su"erior @uality old genjah #or
ada"tation to climate change.
o &ctivity 1N %rovide in#ormation and convince #armers
about the bene>ts o# su"erior rice varieties gro$ old
125
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
genjah @uality associated $ith the risk o# cro" #ailure
due to climate change.
In the develo"ment o# the green revolution ()reen
.evolusion) until the develo"ment o# today. #armers
are con#ronted by many choices o# ty"es and the age
variatas rice ranged #rom 1:! to 11! days. ,armers
have many choices and %re'erences #or rice varieties
are "lanted. such as *iherang. *iguilis. *ibogo.
0ikongga. 6idas. *ilosari. *itubagendit. *itara.
%elita and I' 74. etc.. <iven the time s"an o# the
rainy season on the island o# Lombok is bet$een
-ovember to ,ebruary (#or about 4 months). the use
o# su"eriorE@uality varieties o# shortElived (genjah).
the rice variety that $as about 9! E 4: days is
recommended.
o &ctivity 2N /evelo"ment o# seed technology to >nd
rice varieties resistant to drought and shortElived.
his activity is carried out in coordination and
collaboration bet$een universities. 'esearch and
/evelo"ment *enter o# &gricultural echnology and
the /e"artment o# &griculture.
>. %rograms and activities to develo" #arming systems #or the
"ur"ose beds soil and $ater conservation in rain#ed land.
St!ate-< %reventing the loss o# #armers due to cro"
#ailure rice "roduction technology trans#er to the #arming
system o# beds.
a. %rogram 1N Im"roving the "roductivity o# rain#ed
land and income o# #armers by making #arming
126
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
systems in an eAort beds and cro" land management
in rain#ed rice >elds.
o &ctivity 1N ,acilitate #armers to make land and cro"
management by im"lementing a system o# #arming
beds (.aised Bed 8arming ystem).
,arming beds system is nothing ne$ #or the #armers
on the island o# Lombok. but #or #armers in rain#ed
areas is a #arming system is relatively ne$ because
#armers rarely a""ly. Im"lementing a system o#
#arming beds "rovide an o""ortunity #or #armers to
diversi#y cro"s and selected nonErice commodities o#
high economic value. so that the #armers a huge
o""ortunity to increase #arm income by im"roving
the @uality and @uantity o# out"ut. $hich not only
"romote com"arative advantage (com%arative
advantage)& but com"etitive advantage (com%etitive
advantage) highly %re'erred. mem"ro"orsikan land
$ith rice during the rainy season #or nonErice cro"s
o# high economic value. ,rom 2::: to 2::! this
system has been tested in rain#ed rice lands through
action research conducted by researchers &*I&'
team. he model #arm is called &*I&' cro""ing
0odel (&*0).
o &ctivity 2N introduce the &*0 and #acilitate #armers
to try to a""ly the &*0 on rain#ed rice.
&*0 is the #arming system in rain#ed land $ith
arable land divided by the "ro"ortion o# 1 C 3 o# the
arable land #or "lanting nonErice cro"s o# high
127
Agriculture Sector
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economic value (diAerent kinds o# vegetables. "ulses
or seasonal #ruit) by a""lying a system o# #arming
"ermanent beds (Permanent .aised Bed 8arming
ystem). 6hile the rest o# 2 C 3 o# the arable land #or
rice cultivation <ora system during the rainy season
i# the ground $ith a minimum or rancah system
("addy rice) $ithout beds (@at)& then the /ry Season
/ry Season 1 and 2 nonErice cro"s "lanted (cro"s .
vegetables. and or seasonal #ruit).
?. %rograms and activities to o"timi1e the utili1ation o#
rain#ed land $ith irrigation $ater "om"anisasi and
greening.
St!ate-< Increase the ca"acity utili1ation o# rain#ed land
$ith "om"anisasi develo"ment in rain#ed areas such as in
South Lombok 2illage and 2illage Lucky Setanggor *entral
Lombok.
a. %rogram 1N O"timi1ing the utili1ation o# rain#ed rice
area $ith irrigation $ater legali1e "om"anisasi o#
irrigation channels.
Lucky 2illage and the villages o# *entral Lombok
Setanggor there rain#ed "addy >eld $hich is also
vulnerable to the im"acts o# climate change. although
the >elds in the region but across the irrigation canal
irrigation $ater can not be accessed directly to
irrigate rice acreage through secondary channels.
tertiary and @uarter because o# the "osition higher
rice >eld irrigation channels.
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o &ctivity 1N o #acilitate #armers to make a bin o#
$ater in his rice >eld land to hold $ater "um"ed
#rom irrigation channels
o &ctivity 2N ,acilitating #armers to legali1e
"engambialan irrigation $ater #rom the river C
irrigation "um" engines.
Similarly. rain#ed rice >eld area at 2illage 6est
%raya /istrict Setanggor $ho obtains irrigation $ater
#rom the /am Batujai. Irrigation channels across the
region "ers$ahan. but irrigation $ater can not be
directly irrigates cro"s in the area o# "addy rice
>elds due to a "osition higher than the channel.
here#ore. %om%anisasi develo"ment activities legally
in these areas need to be done through coordination
JI0%'&S6IL OAice and the OAice o# 6ater
'esources and /istrict &gricultural /istrict.
b. %rogram 2N %romote the $ides"read "lanting o#
cro"s &lbasia (turi) in the dike >elds and other cro"s
are rich in nitrogen content. such as mango #ruit
cro"s #or rain#ed areas #or land conservation. &lbasia
"lants use#ul #or #ood other than cattle can also be
use#ul #or green manure.
o &ctivity 1N %rovision o# seeds &lbasia by the
/e"artment o# &griculture #or distribution to #armers
in rain#ed land
o &ctivity 2N *am"aign &lbasia "lanting in rain#ed rice
areas
!.4. Strategi &da"tasi Lahan Sa$ah Irigasi
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he vulnerability o# the agricultural sector is aAected by 4 (#our)
#actors. namely &gricultural Land ty"e (irrigated rice or rain#ed).
-umber o# %reE%ros"erous and %ros"erous Less. slo"e. and
'ain#all distribution. %rinci"le a""roaches in ada"tation to the
land irrigated >elds leads to the "otential im"acts o# climate
change ha1ards (:a(ard) and vulnerability (Vulnerability) and
risk. he "otential ha(ard& vulnerability and risks #rom climate
change $ill be reduced i# the ste"s and strategies carried out
$ith a""ro"riate ada"tation #or the "otential im"act is very
de"endent on the e="osure (the "ressure o# climate change) and
sensitivity o# the system. 8=am"les can be mentioned is the rice
acreage in the lo$er to the 'egional Irrigation ga" Sate H*entral
Lombok /istrict and 'egional Irrigation <ebong 6est Lombok
$ill be more vulnerable to drought (drought) than in the middle
and u""er reaches. %ossible emergence o# dangerous decline in
rice "roduction greater i# the do$nstream ?o$ o# irrigation
$ater in irrigation areas are in de>cit due to drought. although
the do$nstream. middle and u""er increases the average
tem"erature the same.
,lo$ o# $ater #or both irrigation areas is in?uenced by rain#all
in northern regions due to the island o# Lombok is the source o#
the river $ater is #rom the -orth area o# Lombok Island.
here#ore. the areas o# irrigation source irrigation areas gul#
Sate Hand <ebong the "roductivity o# irrigated rice >eld de"ends
on the availability o# $ater in irrigation areas is second. On
ada"tation strategies #or irrigated rice >eld is relatively diAicult
to sho$ the ma" o# irrigated area by irrigation Sate ga" Hand
<ebong because <IS does not $ith to the analysis.
Similarly. do$nstream Batujai /am Irrigation &rea $ould be
more vulnerable than the u""er and middle regions i# ?o$ o#
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$ater in the dam is a signi>cant de>cit. here#ore. the area o#
irrigated rice >elds o# technical and technical K in irrigation
areas are "otentially aAected by the drought there is need #or
coordination and Im%rove Irrigation Net,orking among
&griculture and Livestock o# *entral Lombok regency and 6est
Lombok. /e"artment JI0%'&S6IL (%3) he 6ater 'esources
and Observer local irrigation. his coordination is needed
"rimarily to #acilitate and coordinate the #armers in the rotation
and scheduling o# irrigation $ater distribution "lant according to
schedule and control settings or cro""ing "atterns in the u""er.
middle and do$nstream.
8m"irically. the case o# drought o#ten occurs in do$nstream
areas and neglect in violation o# cro""ing "atterns #or the
distribution o# irrigation $ater that is not "ro"ortional and
scheduled. here#ore. it is necessary to collaboration and
sharing o# in#ormation bet$een the /e"artment o# &griculture.
/e"artment o# %ublic 6orks 6ater 'esources and 0eteorology
and <eo"hysics &gency (B0<) $ith a >=ed ada"tation re#ers to
the "rinci"le o# integrated 2alue *hain (Value Chain).
*oordination. collaboration in sharing in#ormation about each
"rogram related institutions should involve subEdistrict head.
village head. *hie# B%%. J*/. contact ani. <rou" *hairman.
%3&) to "revent the ina""ro"riate ada"tation. Based on the value
chain are listed in ,igure !.2. can be e="lained the #unction. role
and com"etence o# each institution and related agencies in the
ada"tation strategies to climate change im"acts in Lombok -B.
8m"irically that the risk o# cro" #ailure in irrigated rice >eld is
due to a #ailure in "hase and the "hase "remordial be#ore harvest
as a result o# rain#all and the #re@uency o# rain accom"anied by
high $inds. In this study no measurements o# $ind s"eed #actor
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is dangerous to cro" #ailure. +o$ever. in general the #ailure to
obtain the @uantity and @uality o# rice "roduction that o#ten
occurs because the ma=imum rain and storms. here#ore. the
areas at risk o# cro" #ailure can not be sho$n in the ma" as in
rain#ed land area.
Several alternative ada"tation strategies that can be done in the
area irrigated rice >elds are as #ollo$sN
%rogram schedule and control the activities o# "lanting and
"lanting "attern
St!ate-< 8ngage in coordinated and collaborative college
"arties. research institutes. /e"artment o# &griculture.
/e"artment o# 6ater 'esources JI0%'&S6IL and B0< to
#ormulate a schedule o# "lanting "attern and "lanting in the area
o# irrigated rice >elds.
his involvement made considering the habits o# #armers began
"lanting rice is in -ovember and rain#all "atterns on the island o#
Lombok $ith a range o# time (duration) is around -ovember.
/ecember. Danuary and ,ebruary C 0arch. I# the riceE"lanting
time in -ovember. the rice $ill "remordial in ,ebruar C 0arch.
$hile in ,ebruary C 0arch #re@uent heavy rains and strong $inds
that risk loss o# @uality and @uantity o# rice "roduction.
a. %rogram 1N *onduct an intensive study (e#%eriment)
through the &ction 'esearch on "lanting schedules and
time o# "lanting "addy >elds that are not at risk under
climate 'orecasting in irrigated rice >eld.
&ctivity 1N Identi#y the habit o# "lanting "atterns and
"lanting times in each irrigation district in the region that
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received irrigation #rom the Irrigation <ebong. gul# Sate
Hand Stone /am and %engga Dai. /e"artment o# com"etent
and #unctioning do this is /e"artment o# &griculture.
&ctivity 2N *onduct e="eriments to determine the "lanting
schedule #or the various alternatives $hen "lanting in
October and C or -ovember to study the vulnerability and
risks o# climate change on "remordial #ailed.
&ctivity 2N *onduct e="eriments various alternative
cro""ing "atterns to determine the most "ro>table "lant in
terms o# $ater use. $ater availability and climate
'orecasting based by B0<.
&ctivity 3N Study the vulnerability and risks o# climate
change in the agricultural sector in each irrigation area.
namely the middle and do$nstream areas are thought to be
too vulnerable to climate change.
b. %rogram 2N /etermination o# the regulatory "olicy shi#t
scheduling "lanting and cro""ing "atterns in each o# the
irrigated areas to su""ort $ater resource management
regulations in each source o# irrigation $ater. Irrigation
<ebong ie. ga" Sate Hand Batujai and %engga /am.
&ctivity 1N Set the "lanting "attern is more ada"tive to
climate change to "revent the danger o# loss o# @uality and
@uantity o# "roduction.
&ctivity 2N /evelo"ment o# cro""ing "atterns and "lanting
schedule #or the u"stream. middle and do$nstream to the
eAiciency and eAectiveness o# the utili1ation o# $ater
resources and the antici"ation o# climate change on the
agricultural sector.
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&ctivity 3N %emgembangan and dra#ting regulations on
climate change ada"tation strategy o# the agricultural
sector by the authori1ed oAicial o# coordinative and
collaborative.
c. %rogram 3N /issemination o# "lanting "attern and
regulation o# the "lanting schedule and timetable
arrangements #or the regional distribution o# $ater
u"stream. middle and do$nstream o# each irrigation area.
&ctivity 1N /issemination and cro""ing control cam"aigns
and the "lanting schedule #or the eAiciency and
eAectiveness o# irrigation $ater use and irrigation $ater
distribution in a #air and e@uitable in accordance $ith the
re@uirements.
&ctivity 2N *am"aign through the im"lementation o#
training about the bene>ts o# regulation and control o#
cro""ing "atterns and "lanting schedules o# the eAiciency
o# $ater resources in the dry season.
&ctivity 3N *am"aign bene>ts o# "lanting "atterns and
"lanting schedule settings against "ests and diseases and
cro" #ailures due to climate change.
&ctivity 4N *onduct o# command. su"ervision and control
o# the im"lementation schedule o# "lanting and "lanting
"attern in every area o# agriculture.
*ommand rice "lanting season schedule #or the beginning
o# each "lanting season and set the "attern o# "lanting
more ada"tive to the climate change aims to "revent the
danger o# loss o# @uality and @uantity o# rice "roduction.
/istrict &griculture OAice in coordination $ith the +ead
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OAice Branch /istrict (J*/) to actively su"ervise and
command start "lanting schedules (simultaneous "lanting
schedule in a given "eriod o# time) #or irrigated rice >eld
irrigation in each region ('egional Irrigation ga" Sate
H*entral Lombok. 'egional <ebong irrigation area 6est
Lombok and Batujai /am and Irrigation %engga) starting
#rom the u""er. middle and do$nstream. %engatrutran
original "lanting schedule begins in midE-ovember to early
-ovember aims to "revent the danger (ha(ard) due to the
#re@uency and intensity o# e=cessive rain#all during the rice
having a "remordial and to$ards the harvest. he "oint is
i# you start "lanting rice at the beginning o# -ovember to
the areas o# technical irrigated rice >eld "addy cro" is
"rotected #rom "otential danger and strong $inds aAected
the #re@uency and intensity o# e=cess rain#all that ty"ically
occurs in the #ourth month o# ,ebruary minggi.
2. %rograms and activities and the use o# commodity ty"e
rice varieties
St!ate-< 2eri#ying the ca"acity and the legality o# breeder
seeds o# rice and "ulses. "roviding in#ormation on rice acreage
"lanted in each season in antici"ation o# climate change through
vulnerability assessment and regulation o# the "lanting "attern.
a. %rogram 1N Increasing the ca"acity and the legality o#
breeder seed o# "addy cro"s on the island o# Lombok to
"roduce a labeled seed (certi>ed). the su"erior @uality
seeds that are resistant to drought and "est diseases.
&ctivity 1N 2eri#y data on the number o# legal seed breeder
$ith a ca"acity that has been "ermitted by B%SB to
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"revent the emergence o# illegal seed breeder $ho is not
@uali>ed to "roduce seeds. 3ntil the year 2::9. the
number o# legal breeder is numbered 9! breeder s"read in
6est Lombok. *entral Lombok and 8ast Lombok.
&ctivity 2N 'evie$ multi"le locations every variety o#
vulnerability to climate change. "articularly drought.
&ctivity 3N Looking #or su"erior varieties resistant to
drought droughtE"rone areas. and bckleEresistant varieties
#or the area #re@uently hit by strong $inds.
b. %rogram 2N %rovision o# data and in#ormation area "lanted
to rice "addy. rice s"ecies and varieties are "lanted in the
"lanting season last year. and the varieties recommended
by the /e"artment o# &griculture.
&ctivity 1N he Sociali1ation o# the use o# certi>ed rice
seeds to em"o$er each o# the 60O in every village.
&ctivity 2N %rovide the authority and duties to each o# the
60O to conduct /emonstration %lot (%lot /em) #or variats
trials in each district.
&ctivity 3N *am"aign bene>ts o# using su"erior @uality
seeds to "revent the risk o# cro" #ailure due to "est and
disease attack due to climate change.
&ctivity 4N /evelo" regulatory variatas use and su"erior
grain @uality
&ctivity !N %rovide su"erior @uality seeds subsidy in a #air
and e@uitable
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3. %rograms and activities o# the ada"tation to heavy rains
and strong $inds at the time o# rice through a "hase
"remordial and "ollination. his "rogram aims to "revent
the decrease in the @uantity and @uality o# rice "roduction
in "addy >elds that are vulnerable to the #re@uency and
intensity o# high rain#all.
St!ate-< 0anagement o# land and cro"s (*and and Cro%
management) in areas "rone to ha1ards reduction in "roductivity
and rice "roduction.
a. %rogram 1N Identi#y the total area o# "addy >elds in each
district on the island o# Lombok is vulnerable to the
dangers o# #re@uency and intensity o# high rain#all
e="erienced during grain maturation "hase "remordial and
#ruit around the #ourth $eek o# ,ebruary.
&ctivity 1N &ssign each local 60O to conduct >eld data
collection area in every aAected village #ailed to "remordial
"lanting season last year.
&ctivity 2N &ssign to the 60O to conduct ,</s in his oAice
to #ormulate and agree on the time o# "lanting. "lant
s"ecies each season and cro""ing "atterns.
&ctivity 3N introduce a model o# land management and cro"
in the rainy season (rice "lanting season). ,or e=am"leN in
the >rst "lanting season (rainy season) to land and cro"
management by dividing the $et land in "ro"ortion (1 C 4
section #or "eanuts. rice T ) #or $et land in this area
vulnerable to decline in rice "roduction.
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b. %rogram 2N /etermination o# suitable rice estates "eanuts
"lanted in the rainy season. attention should be "aid the
local &griculture /e"artment to arrange the "lanting and
land management
&ctivity 1N <uidance bene>ts o# land and cro"
management to "revent losses due to the risk o# "addy
cro" #ailure due to climate change.
&ctivity 2N *onducting demonstration "lot and /emostrasi
area (0em and 0em Plot /rea) by %%L on land management
and cro" by carrying out activities in the "rogram 3 on 1.
&ctivity 3N ,acilitate the #armers $ho gro$ "eanuts or
other cro"s to obtain a clear market #or the cro"s. namely
by doing business $ith "edagnag "artners (traders) so that
#armers do not have a lo$ bargaining %osition.
>. %rograms and activities o# ada"tation to the river $ater
?o$ de>cits caused by climate change (drought)
St!ate-< %reventing #ailed cro"s. es"ecially in the middle and
do$nstream areas due to river $ater ?o$ de>cits through
coordination bet$een the /e"artment o# &griculture and 6ater
'esources Section JI0%'&S6IL.
a. %rogram 1N /etermination o# the "lanting schedule #or
each region in the u"stream. middle and do$nstream
irrigation areas in each <ebong. gul# Sate Hand /am Batujai
and %engga. he "ur"ose o# this determination is to the
eAectiveness and eAiciency o# $ater distribution to each
region a #air and e@uitable.
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&ctivity 1N o share in#ormation about the data ?o$ o#
$ater. ty"es o# "lants and "lanting areaHs "otential in each
region. his is done coordinative and collaborative
bet$een the OAice o# irrigation and JI0%'&S6IL he
&griculture /e"artment and +orticulture cro"s.
/e"artment o# 6ater 'esources JI0%'&S6IL based
#unctions and its role is very com"etent convey in#ormation
about the ca"acity o# irrigation $ater at each irrigation
region each season. his in#ormation is very im"ortant #or
the /e"artment o# &griculture to determine and adjust the
"lanting area and the ty"es o# cro"s to be "lanted. "lanting
schedule and cro""ing "atterns in each region $hich can
be reached by the ?o$ o# irrigation. I# this can be done in
an orderly and the beginning o# each regular season. then
the danger (ha(ard) #ailed cro"s and cro" #ailures could be
reduced so that the risk o# decline in rice "roduction can
be reduced.
&ctivity 2N /evelo" a schedule o# "lanting and irrigation
$ater distribution schedule #or each irrigation area.
#acilitated by oAicers #rom the /e"artment o# &griculture
and Irrigation JI0%'&S6IL section.
&ctivity 3N Sociali1ation "lanting schedule #or each
irrigation area commanded by oAicers a""ointed #rom the
/istrict &gricultural OAice.
b. %rogram 2N %roviding in#ormation o# rain#all #orecasts
every year.
0eteorolgi and <eo"hysics &gency (B0<) "rovides
$eather #orecasting in#ormation. the "otential o# rain#all in
that year (i# the rain#all in normal. belo$ normal or above
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average). ,unctions and roles must be actively seeking
B0< (search) in#ormation via the Internet. and then do
analysis and "rediction o# rain#all conditions. 6ith this
in#ormation so that #armers can take alternative measures
to ada"t and antici"ate the occurrence o# negative im"acts
such as ha1ards (ha(ard) risk o# cro" #ailure and decline in
"roduction. In#ormation #rom the B0< can be utili1ed by
the /e"artment o# &griculture to conduct command.
<uiding the #armers about "lanting schedules and "atterns
in each season.
&ctivity 1N 8nable the #unction o# rain#all measurement
stations by the registrar to assign the rain#all at each
station. 'e@uires each clerk to deliver rain#all rain#all
record results daily. $eekly and monthly routine. B0<
oAicials must coordinate. control and su"ervision on a
regular basis to ensure the validity and accuracy o# data.
&ctivity 2N /evelo" a *limate ,ield Schools (SLI)
*limate ,ield School $as time needed to study the
"henomenon o# climate and $eather in each district to be
used as a material consideration in the ada"tation o#
agricultural activity. hus. the &griculture /e"artment can
SLI $ith mengbinasikan develo"ment o# ,ield Schools
Integrated %est 0anagement (SL%+).
?. %rograms and activities o# agricultural $aste into organic
#ertili1er and the "revention o# burning stra$.
St!ate-< &chieve the eAort utili1ation o# agricultural $aste into
organic #ertili1er as one o# ada"tation strategies that re@uire
technological innovation.
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a. %rogram 1N Introduction o# a""ro"riate technology
"rocessing o# agricultural $astes into use#ul "roducts.
&ctivity 1N raining to #armers to cultivate stra$ into
organic #ertili1er industry $ith involving agencies and
universities.
&ctivity 2N 0otivating the researchers in universities to
conduct innovative research and discovery o# ne$ stra$
"rocessing into #ertili1er
&ctivity 3N *reate a regulatory ban on stra$ burning is
e="ressly
@. %rograms and activities o# $ater distribution is e@uitable
distribution and ada"tation to ?ooding.
St!ate- 1N %revention o# late "lanting. division o# $ater
that is not #air and e@uitable through the construction o#
tertiary irrigation channels #or every region o# the
u"stream. middle and hiliir.
a. %rogram 1N Im"roving the arrangement o# secondary
irrigation canals. and @uarter terseier #or eAiciency and
eAectiveness o# irrigation $ater distribution to middle and
do$nstream areas. so that #ailure is not "lanting and cro"
#ailure.
&da"tation "rograms associated $ith the ada"tation
strategy should also consider "ime 8rame (time #rame) that
are grou"ed into shortEterm strategy. medium term and
long term. ShortEterm strategy is to "romote eAorts to
address the "roblem o# climate change due to climate
variability (e=treme events) that are e="erienced and #elt
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by the #armers. ,or e=am"le. the dangers o# #ailed cro"s
due to drought because o# the rainy season come late. the
danger o# ?oods during late rice harvest.
o &ctivity 1N Identi#y areas that re@uire tertiary
irrigation net$orks or @uarter. Identi#y and document
the "hysical condition o# the irrigation net$orks that
re@uire re"air and routine maintenance.
o &ctivity 2N /evelo" a net>"!/ "8 $!!$at$"n* re"air
and maintenance o# irrigation net$orks that already
e=ist to deal $ith droughts due to climate change.
b. %rogram 2N Im"roved agricultural settlement areas
vulnerable to ?oods.
o &ctivity 1N Identi#y agricultural areas that are al$ays
e="osed to danger o# ?ooding in each village and
district.
o &ctivity 2N Building a drainage channel to overcome
the danger o# ?ooding in areas and are o#ten e="osed
to "otential danger (ha(ard) ?oods during late rice
harvest due to the #re@uency and intensity o# rain#all
is e=cessive. Bolly$ood ada"tation to climate change
im"acts that is use#ul #or agricultural develo"ment
sustainable investment re@uired
A. %rograms and activities o# ada"tation and sustainable
e@uitable
St!ate-< Im"lement an action ada"tation $ith res"ect to
ada"tation strategies and ob=ectives. he "ur"ose o# ada"tation
is al$ays associated $ith the develo"ment objectives have been
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set #orth in the 'egional and '%D%- '%D0 because climate
change is not only o#ten have an im"act on the agricultural
sector. but o#ten also aAects many other sectors. here#ore. i#
the ada"tation. sometimes have to sacri>ce other sectors.
a. %rogram 1N /evelo" a "riority scale $ith re#erence to the
regulation and develo"ment goals agreed u"on.
o &ctivity 1N 0enyususn scale shortEterm "riorities.
medium term and longEterm coordination bet$een
related institutions. es"ecially in develo"ing
"rograms and activities o# ada"tation actions.
o &ctivity 2N *onduct ,orksho% to develo" "rograms
and activities based on the "riority scale.
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CHAPTER 1. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on the results o# the analysis and em"irical observations
$ill be "resented conclusions and recommendations belo$N
7.1. *onclusion
a. he im"act o# climate change on the island o# Lombok is
e="erienced and "erceived by the "ublic as indicated by
shi#ting the "lanting season and harvest the rice. the danger
o# #ailed cro"s in some rain #ed rice >eld and rice >eld
irrigation K in several districts in *entral Lombok regency
and 8ast Lombok regency. es"ecially in "lanting season o#
2::7 and the year 2::;.
b. &gricultural sector on the island o# Lombok -B vulnerable to
the im"acts o# global climate change is indicated by the
"resence o# danger (ha(ard) #ailed cro"s due to drought.
#ailed and #ailing "remordial achieving @uantity and @uality o#
"roduction due to drought and climate variability. change o#
#re@uency and @uantity o# the e=cessive rain#all during be#ore
harvest.
c. Based on the analysis ty"e o# land use #or agriculture so that
areas "rone to drought are Bayan /istrict o# -orth Lombok
regency. district and Sekotong Sekotong *entral. /istrict and
Sub %ringgabaya 8ast Lombok regency Sembalia. and some
are distributed only in *entral Lombok /istrict %ujut ie.
/istrict %raya %raya and 6estern /istrict.
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d. S"atially. "addy areas are 9$9+- #u+ne!a,+e to drought
based on the analysis o# the distribution o# rain#all on the
island o# Lombok is Bayan *ounty /istrict -orth Lombok.
Sambelia /istrict. /istrict %ringgabaya. Sembalun /istrict.
several villages in the district S$ela. Jeruak /istrict. /istrict
Dero$aru. Sakra Sub /istrict o# 8ast Lombok. and most o# the
rain#ed land in the district such as district central Lombok
%ujut. %raya /istrict. /istrict %raya %raya 6est and
South$est. he rice >eld areas #u+ne!a,+e status based on
distribution o# rain#all is the *entral /istrict and /istrict
%raya %raya 8ast *entral Lombok /istrict. /istrict Sakra
e. he number o# districts that the "ercentage o# "reE"ros"erous
society and the less "ros"erous on the island o# Lombok is
R!7.44L is much less. $hile the "ercentage o# "reE"ros"erous
society and the less "ros"erous to the 74.44L is the most
common and thought to be too vulnerable to climate change
because o# the lo$ ability to ada"t. %re "ros"erous society
and less "ros"erous are s"readN
1) In the /istrict o# -orth Lombok is the /istrict
and the *a"e %arrot.
2) In 8ast Lombok district is /istrict Sembalun.
6anasaba. Sembalun. Sembelia. 6anasaba. &ikmel.
Jeruak.
3) In *entral Lombok regency is %ujut /istrict.
6estern /istrict and %raya %raya Barat /aya. Batu Jeliang
/istrict. /istrict and *entral %raya east %raya.
4) SubEdistrict o# the "ercentage o# "reE$el#are
society (the "oor) bet$een !7.44L E 74.44L is the district
145
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$inner. Sekotong /istrict. /istrict Sheet. /istrict gro$led.
Donggat /istrict. and jana"ria %raya /istrict. /istrict
0asbagik. <anga S3J&03LI& /istrict o# -orth Lombok
/istrict. /istrict S$ela 8ast Lombok. /istrict and *entral
%raya east %raya *entral Lombok 'egency.
!) SubEdistrict o# the "ercentage o# "reE$el#are
society (the "oor) bet$een R!7.44L are Sub +eaven.
<anga 'egency -orth Lombok. 8ast Lombok S$ela
/istrict. /istrict and *entral %raya east %raya *entral
Lombok /istrict.
7.2. 'ecommendation %olicy
a" o strengthen the im"lementation o# mitigation and
ada"tation "rograms in the island o# Lombok is the )rand
0esign trategy #ormulation is necessary to consider the
elements o# the "rinci"les o# integrated environmental
management (1) *oordination. (2) *ollaboration. (3)
%artici"ation C Involvement ($illingness. ability . the chance or
o""ortunity). (4) 'e"resentation o# (re%resentative)& (!) %o$er
ca"acity (Carrying Ca%acity)& (7) 8@uity (E9uity)& (;) %riority
Scale. (9) Sustainability (sustainable) agriculture in natural
resource as"ects environmental. social. cultural and
economic.
%" &da"tation is not only #ocused on eAorts to overcome the
bio"hysical changes in the environment. but including
institutional ca"acity and develo"ment o# socioEeconomic
resilience o# "oor communities to strengthen the ability to
survive (Resilience) and reduce the level o# vulnerability.
here#ore it is necessary to strengthen the ca"acity o# "oor
communities by em"o$ering. #acilitating creation rain e=cess
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reservoir "ond to harvest $ater during the rainy season in
rain #ed areas. #acilitating the rain e=cess reservoir "ond
undergoing renovation (sedimentation).
(" o enrich the climate is very use#ul #or "rediction and
#orecasting the $eather every "lanting season $ill begin #or
B0< is e="ected to collaborate $ith the /e"artment o#
&griculture to coordinate observers and oAicials o# rain#all
records at each station on a regular basis.
d" -eed to develo" a *limate ,ield Schools (SLI) in Lombok
Island school success by ado"ting Integrated %est
0anagement ,ield (SL%+) $ith a >=ed blend $ith the
"reservation o# local $isdom. In rural areas there are still lots
o# heritage kno$ledge about the state o# kno$ledge o#
#orecasting rain#all o$ned by "eo"le $ho have e=cavated and
studied scienti>cally.
e" Study o# integrated and multiElocation on the "lanting
schedule and change cro""ing "atterns in each region #or
irrigation u"stream. central and do$nstream needs to be done
to collaborate and involve research institutions and
universities. he study $as conducted based on the duration
and rain#all "eriod that generally occurs bet$een -ovember
to ,ebruary C 0arch each year. Based on the results o# this
study is used as the basis to command the schedule start o#
each gro$ing season beginning o# "lanting season. set the
"attern o# "lanting more ada"tive to climate change to
"revent the danger o# loss o# @uality and @uantity o#
"roduction.
147
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f" -eed to #acilitate and encourage #armers in the rice >eld
areas that are vulnerable to the im"acts o# climate change
such as rain#ed land area o# *entral Lombok to diversi#y cro"s
in the rainy season. ie by dividing the $et land in "ro"ortion
to "lant rice and vegetable cro"s and C or valuable cro"s high
economy. ,or e=am"le. in Sub /istrict Donggat and
%ringgarata is 1 C 4 section #or "eanuts. T #or rice) because o#
$et land in this area vulnerable to decline in rice "roduction
due to climate variability. In vegetative gro$th o# rice "lants
in this district very $ell #rom the age o# 1! days. "remordial
"eriod until ?o$ering. but the mid to late ,ebruary. ie during
"ollination o# rice to #re@uent rain#all #re@uency and very
over$helming. so disturbing "ollination. Similarly. in the rain
#ed areas in *entral Lombok /istrict. need to diversi#y their
cro"s during the rainy season.
g" -eed in#ormation on a regular basis and the ca"acity o#
river $ater ?o$ as a source o# irrigation $ater to the
&griculture /e"artment. here should also "otential rain#all
in#ormation every year #rom B0< $ith more activated
#unction o# rain#all measurement stations.
'" %rocessing agricultural $aste into organic #ertili1er and the
"revention o# burning stra$. &chieve eAorts to utili1e
agricultural $aste into organic #ertili1er is one o# ada"tation
strategies that re@uire technological innovation.
i" Jee" the scale o# "riorities in im"lementing ada"tation
actions #or the "ur"ose o# ada"tation is al$ays associated
$ith the develo"ment objectives have been set #orth in the
'egional and '%D%- '%D0 because climate change is not only
148
Agriculture Sector
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o#ten have an im"act on the agricultural sector. but o#ten also
aAects many other sectors.
." In addition to the construction o# irrigation channels to
e="and the "lanting area by adding a range o# irrigation $ater
distribution. the develo"ment also needs to address drainage
in ?ood ha1ard areas are "otentially e="osed to danger
(ha(ard) at the time be#ore the rice harvest due to the
#re@uency and intensity o# rain#all is e=cessive .
-" -eed to encourage #armers to make small (,ater+%ounds)
at the #armerHs rice acreage to harvest rain $ater (,ater
harvesting) since long rainy season is relatively short. 0aking
rain e=cess reservoir "onds #or rain $ater harvesting
conducted in areas "rone to drought as some %ujut /istrict.
/istrict and Sub %raya %raya.
l" -eed hel" "oor "eo"le ada"t to the increasing ca"acity by
strengthening the rural economy.
)" Jee" cam"aigning rice cultivation <ogorancah system Olah
6ithout Land (O) in $etErice cultivation areas and the
rain$ater system o# $aterEsaving rice cultivation kno$n as
S'I %addy system (ystem .ice Intensi7cation)& $hich has
been tested in areas vulnerable to $ater de>cit irrigation .
he develo"ment o# rice cultivation in this system should be
accom"anied by the discovery o# variety trials lasting drought
and genjah age.
n" -eed develo"ment and utili1ation o# irrigation $ith ground
$ater in South Lombok by ado"ting the technology in ground
$ater irrigation ()round <ater) $hich $as develo"ed in the
village o# rootEroot #or the irrigation district Bayan corn.
149
Agriculture Sector
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o" -eed to "romote the $ides"read "lanting o# cro"s &lbasia
(turi) in "addy dikes rain#ed areas #or land conservation
because the "lants &lbasia use#ul addition to animal #eed. may
also be use#ul #or green manure.
REFERENCES
&ba$i. G. I Gasin. S. /utta. . +arris. 0. 0aHshum. /.
0c*lymont. I. &mien and '. Sayuti. 2::2. *a"turing
the bene>ts o# seasonal climate #orecasts in
agricultural managementN Sub"roject 2 E 6ater and
*ro" 0anagement inIndonesia. ,inal 'e"ort to
&*I&'. X**&E/-'0. oo$oomba &ustralia.
Boer. %. and 0einke. +. 2::2. %lant <ro$th and the SOI. in
6ill It 'ainY he eAect o# the Southern Oscillatioon
and 8l -ino in Indonesia. /e"artment o# %rimary
Industries X$eensland. Brisbane &ustralia.
-B &gricultural Service. 2::;. &nnual 'e"ort 2::7. -B
%rovincial <overnment /e"artment o# &griculture.
0ataram.
-B &gricultural Service. 2::9. &nnual 'e"ort 2::;. -B
%rovincial <overnment /e"artment o# &griculture.
0ataram.
150
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
/e"artment o# ,ood *ro"s and Livestock o# 6est Lombok
regency. 2::;. 'oad 0a" ,ormulation *ro"s
/evelo"ment 6est Lombok regency.
/e"artment o# &griculture and ,ood %lants o# *entral
Lombok district. 2::;. &nnual 'e"ort 2::9.
/e"artment o# &griculture and ,ood %lants o# 8ast Lombok
/istrict. 2::;. &nnual 'e"ort 2::9.
Sub In ,igures as Lombok Island. 2::;. B%S -B. 0ataram
Lombok imur in ,igures. 2::;. *entral Bureau o#
Statistics o# 8ast Lombok /istrict.
Lombok engah in number. 2::;. *entral Bureau o#
Statistics o# *entral Lombok /istrict.
6est Lombok in number. 2::;. Statistics o# 6est Lombok
'egency.
Jota 0ataram in number. 2::;. Statistics 0ataram.
0alc1e$ski. D. 1444. <IS and 0ulticriteria /ecision
&nalysis. -e$ Gork. 3S&.
0artyn. /. 1442. *limate o# the $orld. /evelo"ment in
&tmos"heric Science. 8lsevier &msterdamELondon.
-G 43! ".
0ott 0c/onald and %artners &sia (00%&). 149!. 6est
-usa enggara irrigation studyN %andanduriES$angi
"reE#easibility re"ort.
151
Agriculture Sector
DRAFT do not quote
Saaty. L 149:. he &nalytic +ierarchy %rocess. 0c<ra$
+ill. -e$ Gork. 3S&.
eam IB. 1474. Survey 6ater 'esources /evelo"ment in
the island o# Lombok. 'e"ort IB.
Gasin. I0 0aHshum. 0 and G. &ba$i and Lia +adia$aty.
2::2. 8lo,cast
3se o /etermine 8arly Summer

'ain and /evelo" Strategy o# Land 'ice *ultivation in
'ain$ater in Lombok Island. -ational Seminar
%roseding F,armer Income Im"rovement hrough
&gricultural 'esources 3tili1ation and &""lication o#
&""ro"riate echnologyF On 2: to 21 -ovember 2::2.
B%% -B.
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