Pergamon

Applied Geography, Vol. 18. No. I, pp. 2.5-33, 1998

% 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights rewsved
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Marginality and vulnerability
Why the homeless of Tokyo dont count in disaster
preparations
Ben Wisner
California State University Long Beach, 1250 Bellflower Boulevard, Long Beach,
CA 90840, USA
The philosophical and methodological bases of urban disaster vulnerability
analyses are presently underdeveloped. Few such analyses incorporate social
data, partly because urban disaster managers and other potential user groups
do not fully appreciate the value of this information, and partly because tech-
niques for including it in existing vulnerability analyses have not been worked
out. This paper explores the value of adding data on social marginality to
Japanese models of earthquake impact and of incorporating marginal groups
into the disaster planning process. The growing phenomenon of homelessness in
Tokyo is used as a test case. It is argued that data on homelessness would
improve the performance of systems designed to increase personal and social
protection, whereas the incorporation of marginal urban groups would tap new
knowledge of coping mechanisms and enrich the entire planning process. 0 1998
Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved
Keywords: citizen-based actions,
mitigation, homelessness, Kobe
ning, Tokyo
disaster recovery, earthquake hazard, hazard
earthquake, marginality, participatory plan-
Generally, the only data on people that are used in Japanese models of earthquake impact
refer to the numbers of individuals that are likely to be involved. The influence of age,
gender, disability or other important social and economic characteristics is rarely, if ever,
assessed. The use of such social variables could enrich efforts to prepare for a large
earthquake, especially when planning for the hardships that face different groups during
the post-disaster recovery period.
Vulnerability and capacity as two sides of a process
It has been observed that the capacity of individuals to cope with and recover from
extreme events is reduced by several constraints (Anderson and Woodrow, 1989; Mas-
krey, 1989; Wisner, 1993, 1996; Varley, 1993; Blaikie et al., 1994; International Feder-
ation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 1994). Among others, these include: lack
of access to information, financial credit or services; and lack of resources such as
income, assets and social support. When these constraints are present, the affected popu-
25
26 Marginality and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner
lation is more prone to injury, death or loss in the immediate aftermath of a hazardous
event, and-if they survive-is less able to recover (Figure I).
There is also evidence that people with certain social characteristics are more likely
than others to be affected by lack of access and lack of resources. Such groups are also
more likely to cluster on sites exposed to hazards in big cities: they reside on the steep
slopes of Rio de Janeiro, the flood-prone low-lying areas of Dhaka, and the reclaimed
land in Tokyos old lower town-shitumachi. The association of disadvantaged people
with difficult environments has even been proposed as a genera1 geographical law: mar-
ginal people are allocated to marginal places (Susman et al., 1983). Other researchers
do not go quite this far but acknowledge that various social variables affect patterns of
injury, death, loss and post-disaster recovery. The effects of age (very young and very
old), gender (including complications of pregnancy), and disability have been widely
EXPOSURE to
Hazards and
LACK OF
ACCESS
(e.g. to health
services,
credit,
information,
etc.)
LACK OF
RESOURCES
(e.g. income,
assets,
reserves,
social support
etc.)
Figure 1 Factors leading to increased vulnerability. Source: Wisner (1996: 21)
Marginality and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner 27
documented (Seamon et al., 1984; Rivers, 1987; Alexander, 1993: 461-477; Aysan,
1993; Wisner, 1993; Blaikie et al., 1994; Jolly, 1994; Walker, 1994).
Mortality in the Great Hanshin Earthquake (Kobe and surroundings, January 1995)
was very heavily concentrated in older age groups. Twenty-three per cent of casualties
were aged 75 years or older. Another 30 per cent were between 60 and 74 years. In
other words, more than half of the casualties (53 per cent) were over 60. These elderly
people tended to live in old wooden houses that collapsed and, in many cases, burned.
They also tended to sleep on ground floors because of difficulty climbing stairs, and were
crushed when upper floors collapsed. Finally, they lived alone and lacked the strength to
rescue themselves from the rubble (United Nations Centre for Regional Development,
1995: 45). Among the old people who died in Kobe, females predominated. In one
sample of 4588 casualties, nearly 1000 were women aged 70 or older (Ishii et al., 1996:
561, Figure 1). According to a Ministry of Health and Welfare survey, 2399 (44 per
cent) of the 5486 deaths involved people aged 65 and over (Asahi Shimbun, 4 Dec. 1995).
In Tokyo the only social data used in government-sponsored models of earthquake
death and injury are the number of individuals comprising the daytime and night-time
populations of various city neighbourhoods (Tokyo Metropolitan Government and
Bureau of City Planning, 1993: 5; see also the discussions by Uitto, 1998; Takahashi,
1998). For example, age and sex are currently not taken into account when modelling
the time required to travel by foot to one of Tokyos 145 designated open spaces (termed
evacuation risk). However, there are plans to incorporate age as a variable in the next
edition of the model. Analysts in one of Tokyos 23 central wards (Setagaya) have
developed a local model but it, too, uses only simple population figures. In a separate
project linked to preparedness exercises, the percentage of older people and the needs
of disabled people have been taken into account by Setagaya planners. However, this
information is not incorporated into the geographical information systems (GIS)-based
vulnerability assessment that functions as a primary strategic planning tool. In the same
way, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government has used studies of previous earthquakes in
Japan to calculate the likely distribution of injuries among men and women, but these
socially differentiated data are not incorporated into its GIS-based planning model. In
these respects current practice in Japan differs from the approach that is used in the USA
and elsewhere. Many countries now include the special needs of different groups in
planning models, especially when evacuation is called for.
There is much more to the social geography of vulnerability than age, gender and
disability. From the perspective of the vulnerability/capacity framework outlined above,
it can be hypothesized that socioeconomic status, occupation and nationality have a
marked effect on access to information and services as well as on resources available to
people for self-protection and recovery. Certain status, occupation and nationality groups
suffer increased vulnerability because their capacity to cope and to recover has been
diminished. A pilot survey of the homeless of Tokyo will hopefully provide evidence
that planners could usefully include such variables in their models of immediate-but
perhaps more important-long-term consequences of a large earthquake.
Nagata ward in Kobe was not only densely populated (11,293 people/km) with a high
percentage of wooden houses (48.4 per cent) (Ishii et al., 1996; 563, Table 2), it was
home to many low-income craft workers who may not be able to restore their former
livelihoods. Age was also a factor affecting the ability to recover from the Great Hanshin
Earthquake. According to a newspaper report (Asahi Shimbun, 16 July 1996), 83 people
28 Marginality and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner
have died unnoticed by neighbours in temporary housing and were found dead later
because they lived alone. Of these, 53 (64 per cent) were aged 60 and over. Elderly
people are often left in an isolated situation long after the earthquake. In general, it is
those with the least resources who are likely to suffer long-lasting damage as well as to
be injured or die. Low-income renters and those with precarious livelihoods based on
small business and craft work may suffer financial losses that can result in the complete
collapse of their long-term economic prospects.
Japanese urban specialists are very good at large-scale reconstruction of infrastructure
and other types of redevelopment-both before and after disaster. The spatial reorganiza-
tion of the low-lying, densely settled Koto ward in Tokyo is often offered as an example
of successful urban redevelopment combined with disaster mitigation (Nakabayashi,
1993: 114; Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 1995a: 52). In Kobe, it is intended to create
an exotic Chinatown as well as to rebuild port facilities and infrastructure in the wake
of the Hanshin earthquake (Velasquez, 1995: 222). What is less clear is whether the
support given to small businesses and workshops has been sufficient to ensure the recov-
ery of livelihoods. Integration of occupational and income data into planning models
could enable authorities to anticipate the support required for long-term economic recov-
ery by such groups on a ward-by-ward basis.
Foreign nationals who live in or visit Japan also face unusual problems during and
after disasters. Some of these are connected with language difficulties that might hamper
disaster response and others pertain to disaster recovery. For example, it is believed that
unregistered foreigners who survived the Kobe earthquake may not have gone to clinics
or hospitals to get their injuries checked (Velasquez, 1995: 219). The payment of disaster-
related medical bills incurred by foreigners-both legal and illegal-has become a sig-
nificant public issue because many lacked proper insurance and costs were absorbed by
the public purse (Tohgoh, 1995: 6; Velasquez, 1995: 221-222). By building foreign
nationality into earthquake planning models it might be possible to anticipate and address
issues such as these.
Worldwide there is increasing displacement of people because of political, economic
and environmental pressures. Only a small proportion of these are recognized as refu-
gees (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, 1996: 8-19).
Also displaced are millions of legal and illegal immigrant workers. Some of these have
come to Japan as a consequence of the increasingly borderless condition of Asian
economies. The number of foreigners there is said to have grown by more than 200,000
between 1986 and 1990. In 1994 the estimated number of foreigners in Japan as a whole
was 1,354,Ol l-up from 1,075,3 17 in 1990 (Takahashi and Suriura, 1996: 136). In
Tokyo the comparable figures were 242,500 in 1994, up from 205,000 in 1990 and
175,000 in 1986. The differential influence of foreign nationality on vulnerability to
earthquakes is suggested by the foreign death toll during the Hanshin earthquake: North
and South Koreans (105) Chinese/Taiwanese (42), Brazilians (8) Burmese (2), Filipinos
(2) Americans (2), Peruvians (1) Swiss (1) Australians (1) Algerians (1) (Velasquez,
1995: 218). Ethnic Koreans and ethnic Chinese are more likely to be engaged in low-
income and part-time work and to live in conditions that place them at greater risk.
Europeans and other expatriates from high-income countries are likely to be able to
afford seismically safer housing.
With reference to the vulnerability/capacity framework outlined in Figure I, it is easy
to see that foreigners with limited Japanese may suffer from a lack of information and
MarginaliQ and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner 29
social resources for protection and recovery. This is likely to be even more true of
illegal immigrants who try to minimize their exposure to officialdom. Japan has a highly
developed social infrastructure of citizens organizations at the neighbourhood level that
serve various functions such as fire-fighting, first aid, hazard mitigation and education
about earthquakes. The volunteer fire corps (shobodun) dates from 1718. Local groups
that work to identify and mitigate hazards in their neighbourhoods (rnachizukuri kyo
gikai) are said to have numbered 56,000 in 1991, covering 37 per cent of all households
(Kaji, 1991: 222). Likewise, the Japanese Red Cross strongly advocates the importance
of Iocal knowledge in disaster management (Higashiura, 1994). With the number of both
legal and illegal immigrants growing in Tokyo, one must ask what steps could be taken
to draw them into the activities of local citizen groups? What could be done to increase
the flow of information to resident foreigners and, assuming these foreigners also have
relevant local knowledge, how can it be drawn into the planning process?
Homelessness: linking theory to policy and practice
Homelessness bundles together most of the challenges and opportunities associated with
vulnerability: lack of access, isolation, lack of resources. At the Habitat II conference in
Istanbul (June 1996) the figure of 100 million unsheltered or homeless people worldwide
was often quoted (Global Futures Bulletin, 1996). There are many reasons for home-
lessness and different profiles of the homeless in different cities. A recent survey suggests
that homelessness is growing in Tokyo (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 1995b: 11,
Table 2-2-2). Although the homeless population is still small it serves to illustrate broader
issues of social vulnerability. The homeless of Tokyo provide a litmus test for the
inclusion of diverse social data about special needs populations in hazard management
programmes of specific urban subregions. In Tokyo they are mostly men, a high pro-
portion of whom are day labourers in the construction industry (Tokyo Metropolitan
Government, 1995b: 15, Table 2-2-7). Most are also older: 67 per cent over 50 years
and 26 per cent more than 60 (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 199513: 16-17, Tables
2-2-9 and 2-2-10). Their tidy encampments of blue plastic lean-tos and tents are found
in parks, along rivers such as the Sumida, and in rail and subway stations (where the
self-built architecture tends towards elaborate cardboard constructions). For the most part,
the men seem to live a quiet, dignified and well-ordered existence-many have cooking
arrangements, water storage, do their laundry; some even keep pets. Almost three-
quarters (73 per cent) had only been homeless for a year or less (Tokyo Metropolitan
Government, 1995b: 15, Table 2-2-8). This profile reveals no obvious reasons why the
homeless might not be more fully integrated into neighbourhood earthquake preparedness
activities. Welcome steps towards that end are being taken by building shelters in each
of Tokyos 23 central wards-although not without raising some NIMBY (not in my
back yard)-style concerns among other citizens (The Japan Times, 1996).
What are some of the special circumstances of Tokyos homeless? In addition to
advanced age, social isolation, low income, lack of financial reserves and insurance, this
population has health problems that may be important-both to themselves and others-
in the wake of an earthquake. Two surveys of the shitumuchi zone (Sanya, Taito ward,
Central Tokyo), indicate that the percentages of those in poor health were 12 per cent
(1992) and 9 per cent (1993). People with tuberculosis numbered 5 and 4 per cent in
these surveys (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 1995b: 22, Table 2-3-l). This level of
30 Marginality and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner
infection could present a health hazard in earthquake shelters unless it is recognized
and anticipated. Perceived by the public but ignored by authorities, the association of
homelessness with disease is likely to increase the stigmatization and isolation of the
homeless.
Tokyos homeless also have distinctive patterns of employment. Age and health status
tend to limit the number of days they can sustain hard physical labour. In a recent survey,
80 per cent of one sample had worked 15 days or fewer in the previous month; 38 per cent
of another sample had not worked at all during the previous month (Tokyo Metropolitan
Government, 1995b: 23 and Table 2-3-2). The disruption caused by a major earthquake
may seriously interrupt the meagre, though systematic, livelihood strategy of these men,
especially those who are day labourers recruited at labour exchanges near homeless
encampments. Of course, the vast amount of reconstruction that would follow a major
earthquake could provide increased opportunities for day labourers. But this will probably
only happen if plans appropriate to the age and health of the homeless are developed
in advance.
Clearly, the homeless population of Tokyo is vulnerable to multiple hazards in the
urban environment. It is likely that this is also true of other marginal groups such as the
disabled and the frail elderly. Inadequate shelter, chronic health problems, poor nutrition,
social isolation and locational factors combine to increase the exposure of homeless
people to diseases related to inadequate sanitation, earthquakes, flooding, accidental dom-
estic fires, and even violence. Tokyo is not alone in this respect. Violence against the
homeless is common in Los Angeles and it could increase in other megacities as unem-
ployment and alienation among youth increases (Wisner, 1994, 1998). A preliminary
mapping exercise carried out by members of the collaborative project on vulnerability
mounted by researchers from the United Nations University, Aoyama Gakuin University
and California State University (Long Beach) (UNU-AGU-CSU) revealed a significant
concentration of homeless men along the bank of the Sumida river, as well as others
camping in several central Tokyo parks (see Takahashi, 1998). These homeless people
run high risks of injury from falling trees in parks and from exposure to wind and
flooding along the river. Even if they retreat to railway and subway stations or other
indoor refuges, they are at risk of losin, 0 their meagre possessions-thus deepening the
poverty that helps to make them vulnerable. Research elsewhere on severe coastal storms
shows that the poor are least likely to recover in a timely way following loss (Blaikie
et crl., 1994: 147-67). The forcing action of anticipated global warming and sea level
rise will probably increase the frequency and severity of flooding in the Tokyo-Yoko-
hama region (Nicholls, 1995).
Integrating marginal citizens, utilizing social data
Among Tokyos official objectives for improving disaster preparedness are two of special
note: reinforcing citizens disaster prevention groups and ensuring the safety of
especially vulnerable citizens (Tokyo Metropolitan Government, 1995a: 78). The UNU-
AGU-CSU pilot research project sets out to test the importance and feasibility of integrat-
ing a wide range of social data into models that are used by planners to conceptualize
and prepare for a large earthquake. The government of Tokyo has made laudable achieve-
ments in integrating counter-disaster measures into routine urban planning and in
developing planning tools for anticipating injuries, deaths, and problems with evacuation.
Marginality and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner
31
Tokyo now has the opportunity to use other available social data to strengthen its
approach to long-term recovery as well as immediate response. As mentioned earlier,
there is sometimes awareness of social variables among planners that has not yet been
expressed in the formal mapping and modelling exercises. For example, in Setagaya
ward, there have been extensive walking tours conducted by officials and citizens which
were used as opportunities to tap local knowledge of the special hazards that the disabled
face and other specific resources or hazards that particular neighbourhoods face
(Setagaya-ku, 1996: 34-5). In addition, as Uitto (1998) points out, it is hoped to draw
out lessons from the experience of planners, non-governmental organizations, and the
homeless themselves that will help to inform the disaster management practice of other
large cities, especially those in developing countries. Several large Third World cities
have made considerable progress in the task of incorporating socially differentiated
approaches to risk and vulnerability into public policy; their experience can benefit cities
in developed countries (Maskrey, 1989; Delica, 1993; Mata and MacDonald, 1996).
As noted earlier, much of Tokyo is covered by well-established voluntary neighbour-
hood groups that have responsibilities for fire-fighting and disaster preparedness. In
addition, densely populated old sections of the shifumachi (lower Tokyo), that are most
at risk to building collapse, fire and flooding, often possess a rich subculture of neigh-
bourhood reciprocity and communal social life centred around festivals (Bestor, 1993).
These features encourage the hope that marginal people might well be integrated into
disaster planning if such efforts are made.
This is not to suggest that the task would be easy. Two difficulties come readily to
mind. The first is to convince planners that lay peoples knowledge of their built and
natural environments-as well as their social knowledge and capacity for self-protec-
tion-are relevant and useful. This is a perennial problem that is slowly but surely yield-
ing to counter-arguments (Wisner, 1995). The second difficulty has not yet been faced
head on. Marginal people are, by definition, those whose existence troubles and upsets
their neighbours. Stigmas are often attached to disability, homelessness, mental illness,
and even to frail old age (Gilmore and Somerville, 1994; Verbrugge and Jette, 1994).
Despite traditional Japanese cultural values that honour and value elders, modern econ-
omic forces tend to isolate older people (over 65) who are now estimated to constitute
14 per cent of the national population. Even greater challenges surround the incorporation
of disabled, homeless, and other marginal urban dwellers. Issues of need and voice are
interrelated. Planners cannot fully understand the disaster needs of marginal people unless
the latter are invited and encouraged to speak up. On the other hand, there may be
obstacles to the full participation of marginal groups in neighbourhood forums. Planners
must help to clear away such obstacles in order to ensure the widest possible range of
voices in the neighbourhood planning process.
It is important not to minimize or trivialize these challenges. In the three megacity
environments in which I have been working over the past 4 years (greater Johannesburg,
South Africa; greater Los Angeles; greater Tokyo), marginal individuals are often literally
inl?.~ible. In all three megacities expressways, railways and subways move affluent people
from work to residence and back along corridors that minimize contact, many times even
visual perception, of low-income areas and the poorest of the poor. It has been suggested,
for example, that a recent attempt to relocate homeless people from Shinjuku station in
Tokyo amounted to an effort to place them out of sight (Megumi, 1996). Even when
commuters encounter marginal citizens at station stops, in underground passageways, or
32 Marginality and disaster vulnerability in Tokyo: B. Wisner
on surface streets, the common reaction is to avert the eyes. What is taking place fits
the psychological definition of denial-a form of social amnesia or psychic numbing
(Lifton, 1980). If the safety of the poorest and most marginal people in megacities is to
be enhanced, then planners and disaster professionals must face their own personal aver-
sions and ambivalences about such people and help others to do the same.
Acknowledgements
I gratefully acknowledge the encouragement, stimulating discussion, and joy of shared
work made possible by my fellow members of the UNU-AGU-CSU research team: Dr
Juha Uitto (Academic Division, United Nations University, Tokyo) and Dr Shigeo Takah-
ashi (Department of Economics, Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo). Together we func-
tion as true saigai sun samurai (Three Musketeers of Disaster).
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