TRACING CHANGES IN NILE VALLEY

ECOLOGY OVER 6000 YEARS

Depictions of animals in ancient Egyptian artefacts have helped scientists
assemble a detailed record of the large mammals that lived in the Nile Valley
over the past 6,000 years. A new analysis of this record shows that species
extinctions, probably caused by a drying climate and growing human
population in the region, have made the ecosystem progressively less stable.
he study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS!, found that local
extinctions of mammal species led to a steady decline in the stability of the animal communities in the
Nile Valley. "hen there were many species in the community, the loss of any one species had relatively
little impact on the functioning of the ecosystem, whereas it is now much more sensitive to
perturbations, according to first author #ustin $ea%el, who wor%ed on the study as a graduate student at
the &niversity of 'alifornia, (anta 'ru), and is now a postdoctoral fellow at the (anta *e +nstitute.
Species represented in ancient artworks
Around six millennia ago, there were ,- species of large.bodied mammals in Egypt, but only eight
species remain today. Among the species recorded in artwor% from the late /redynastic /eriod 0before
,100 2'! but no longer found in Egypt are lions, wild dogs, elephants, oryx, hartebeest, and giraffe.
3What was once a rich and diverse mammalian community is very different now,4 $ea%el said. As the
number of species declined, one of the primary things that was lost was the ecological redundancy of
the system. here were multiple species of ga!elles and other small herbivores, which are important
because so many different predators prey on them. When there are fewer of those small herbivores, the
loss of any one species has a much greater effect on the stability of the system and can lead to
additional e"tinctions.4
he new study is based on records compiled by )oologist 5ale 6sborne, whose 1778 boo% he
9ammals of Ancient Egypt provides a detailed picture of the region:s historical animal communities
based on archaeological and palaeontological evidence as well as historical records. 3#ale $sborne
compiled an incredible database of when species were represented in artwor% and how that changed
over time. &is wor% allowed us to use ecological modelling techni'ues to loo% at the ramifications of
those changes,4 $ea%el said.
he study had its origins in ;010, when $ea%el visited a utan%hamun exhibition in (an *rancisco with
co.author Nathaniel 5ominy, then an anthropology professor at &' (anta 'ru) and now at 5artmouth.
3We were ama!ed at the artwor% and the depictions of animals, and we realised they were recording
observations of the natural world. Nate was aware of #ale $sborne(s boo%, and we started thin%ing
about how we could ta%e advantage of those records,4 $ea%el said.
'o.author /aul <och, a &'(' palaeontologist who studies ancient ecosystems, helped formulate the
team:s approach to using the records to loo% at the ecological ramifications of the changes in species
occurrences. $ea%el teamed up with ecological modellers 9athias /ires of the &niversity of (ao /aolo,
2ra)il, and =ars >udolf of the &niversity of 2ristol, &.<., to do a computational analysis of the dynamics
of predator.prey networ%s in the ancient Egyptian animal communities.
Environmental changes
he researchers identified five episodes over the past 6,000 years when dramatic changes occurred in
Egypt:s mammalian community, three of which coincided with extreme environmental changes as the
climate shifted to more arid conditions. hese drying periods also coincided with upheaval in human
societies, such as the collapse of the 6ld <ingdom around ?,000 years ago and the fall of the New
<ingdom about ,,000 years ago.
3here were three large pulses of aridification as )gypt went from a wetter to a drier climate, starting
with the end of the African &umid Period *,*++ years ago when the monsoons shifted to the south,4
$ea%el said. 3At the same time, human population densities were increasing, and competition for space
along the Nile ,alley would have had a large impact on animal populations.4
he most recent ma@or shift in mammalian communities occurred about 100 years ago. he analysis of
predator.prey networ%s showed that species extinctions in the past 1A0 years had a disproportionately
large impact on ecosystem stability. hese findings have implications for understanding modern
ecosystems, $ea%el said.
3his may be -ust one e"ample of a larger pattern,4 he said. 3We see a lot of ecosystems today in which
a change in one species produces a big shift in how the ecosystem functions, and that might be a
modern phenomenon. We don(t tend to thin% about what the system was li%e .+,+++ years ago, when
there might have been greater redundancy in the community.4
(ourceB /niversity of 0alifornia 1 Santa 0ru!