How the Islamic State Took

Turkey Hostage
The 49 Turkish diplomats captured by the
jihadist group in Mosul may now be free, but Ankara
still has many reasons to think twice about confronting
the extremists on its border.
s
Turkey part of the broad coalition against the slamic !tate "!# that
$resident %arack &bama has been trying to fashion, or not' There is
certainly reason to think it would be interested in the e(ort) Turkey shares a
long land border with !yria, many of the moderate !yrian opposition
leaders ha*e long been based in Turkey, and the Turkish go*ernment has
been at the forefront of the opposition to the Assad regime, along with
many of the other states in the anti+! coalition.
Turkey, howe*er, did not join the ,- Arab countries that signed on to help
build a coalition against ! at a meeting in .eddah, !audi Arabia, this past
week, and has made it clear that it will not partake in military operations
against !. t is willing to pro*ide humanitarian aid, and will in all likelihood
o(er clandestine support to /.!. e(orts.
The primary reason the Turks gi*e for their reticence was their concern for
the fate of 49 Turkish diplomatic and security personnel who were sei0ed by
! when the group o*erran the ra1i city of Mosul2 they were released this
past weekend. The hostage crisis was emblematic of all that has gone
wrong for Turkey in !yria) Although warned of the impending fall of ra13s
second largest city, the Turks terribly miscalculated in thinking that ! would
not harm Turkish personnel, gi*en how critical Ankara3s support for anti+
Assad e(ort had been.
The end of the hostage crisis in Mosul, howe*er, does not necessarily mean
Turkey has a free hand to confront !. Ankara still faces a second 1uasi+
hostage crisis that gi*es Turkish leaders reason to think twice about joining
&bama3s coalition. !outh of Turkey3s border with !yria, a s1uadron of
Turkish soldiers guards an ancient tomb which is said to belong to
!uleyman !hah, the 4rst &ttoman sultan3s grandfather. t was ceded by the
5rench occupying power to the new Turkish state in ,96,. The tomb had to
be mo*ed closer to Turkey in ,978 following the damming of the 9uphrates
and the creation of :ake Assad2 the new location, in !yria3s Aleppo $ro*ince,
is some 6- miles from the Turkish border. !ince then, a contingent of
Turkish troops has been stationed there, rotating through regularly with
supplies.
;ere the jihadists to decide to o*errun the Turkish encla*e, they could
probably do it easily, although it would certainly prompt a Turkish military
reaction. 9ither way, the situation is a delicate if not impossible one for
Ankara, as the only way to resupply this small contingent of troops is by
reaching some sort of understanding with the jihadist group. The last known
resupply operation occurred near the end of April, when ! did not enjoy the
dominance it does today.
;hile the details of the hostage deal are still unclear, Ankara has had
interlocutors with ! ++ from Arab tribes to former ra1i <ice $resident Tari1
al+=ashimi, who sought refuge in Turkey ++ who could ha*e been
instrumental in reaching it. !uch a deal, howe*er, may include a promise of
continued non+in*ol*ement in the campaign against the jihadist group, with
the soldiers stationed at !uleyman !hah ser*ing as an insurance policy for
the jihadists.
Turkey3s other problem has been the emergence of a jihadist support
infrastructure within its own territory. 5ormer /.!. ambassador to Turkey
5rancis >icciardone recently told journalists that Ankara had been working
with groups that the /nited !tates considers ?beyond the pale,? including
the al @aeda+aAliated .abhat al+Busra. 9arlier this year, Turkish police
also stopped a truck reportedly belonging to the =umanitarian >elief
5oundation "==#, an BC& close to the ruling .ustice and De*elopment $arty
"AE$# that made its name organi0ing the ill+fated 6-,- Fotilla to Ca0a, for
allegedly carrying weapons to 4ghters in !yria. Turkish $rime Minister
Ahmet Da*utoglu has denied that Ankara has worked with .abhat al+Busra,
while == denies that it had anything to do with the stopped truck.
Aid, munitions, and 4ghters ha*e been smuggled across the border at will,
sometimes *ia ambulance. The resulting infrastructure ++ consisting of
groups of sympathi0ers or enablers, networks of safe houses, transportation
and smuggling channels, and medical support ++ is now autonomous of the
go*ernment.
9stimates *ary, but Turkish media reports ha*e suggested that as many as
,,--- Turks ha*e joined !. According to opinion polls, only 7- percent of
Turks *iew ! as a terrorist group. n a country of 78 million, the G- percent
who do not share such a *iew represent an important potential recruiting
pool for the jihadist group.
5or some time, the &bama administration had been pushing former prime
minister and now $resident >ecep Tayyip 9rdogan to clamp down on
supporting jihadists in !yria. After the fall of Mosul and the mobili0ation
against !, pressure on Turkey has been ramped up. The /nited !tates has
not asked to use its mammoth ncirlik Air %ase in southern Turkey for
military operations against !, knowing full well that Ankara would turn
them down.
The use of ncirlik would make it much easier and cheaper for the /nited
!tates to conduct operations, instead of routing them out of the air base in
Doha or the carriers in the $ersian Culf and the Mediterranean. %ut the
truth is, the /nited !tates does not need that base to achie*e its limited
objecti*es. nstead, ;ashington wants to work more closely with Ankara
without making much of a fuss. =owe*er, the dismantling of the
infrastructure in Turkey that supports jihadists of all stripes, and the oil+
smuggling routes bene4ting !, must come 4rst.
9rdogan bristles at any criticism from the American press, accusing it of
engaging in slander and malicious propaganda. %ut he is in a diAcult
situation, much of it of his own doing. To be fair, the 8H-+mile Turkish+!yrian
border is diAcult to seal completely2 people in that region ha*e for decades
made a li*ing o( smuggling.
The bigger problem, howe*er, is that the Turkish go*ernment has little faith
in the /nited !tates. This is partially ideological, but also based on
experience. After all, the bungled management of post+in*asion ra1 does
not inspire con4dence in ;ashington3s ability to steward this new e(ort.
%etween the hostages ! has captured and the important residual support it
commands in Turkey, the jihadist group has managed to signi4cantly
restrict 9rdogan3s room to maneu*er. The natural policy for Turkey now is to
sit on the sidelines ++ but as the 4ght against ! escalates, Turkey could 4nd
itself under increasing pressure to be drawn in. ;ill this resemble 6--G'
Then, the Turkish parliament, despite the Ankara go*ernment3s e(orts in
support, *oted down a resolution that would ha*e allowed American troops
to cross into ra1 through Turkish territory. That decision cast a shadow on
Turkish+American relations as the /nited !tates struggled to control post+
!addam ra1. Turkey3s dilemma, in short, is that it has lost the initiati*e to
!2 while it has rescued its hostages, it still remains hostage to !.
Posted by Thavam