Sept. 24 Forum Research Poll

MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President

lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
416.960.9603
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
Toryvotersmostmotivated
RobshouldwithdrawfromWard2onehalf
TORONTOSEPTEMBER22nd,2014Inarandomsamplingofpublicopiniontakenby
theForumPollamong1164Torontovoters,thosewhosupportJohnToryarethe
mostcommittedtovotingintheupcomingmunicipalelection(91%absolutely
certain),comparedtoChowsupporters(85%)andDougFordvoters(81%).
TORONTO
September 22nd, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS:
ThosewhosupportJohnTory
arethemostcommittedto
votingintheupcoming
OnehalfmorelikelytovotenowDougisin
municipalelection(91%
OnehalfofTorontovoterssaytheyaremorelikelytovoteinthiselectionbecause
absolutelycertain).
DougFordhasjoinedtherace(48%),whileveryfewsaytheyarelessmotivatedto
OnehalfofTorontovoters
vote(3%).OnehalfsayDoug'scandidacymakesnodifferencetotheirintentionto
saytheyaremorelikelyto
vote(48%).Doug'ssupportersaremostlikelytosaytheyaremorecommittedto
voteinthiselectionbecause
votingnow(67%),followedbyTorysupporters(47%)thenChowvoters(27%).
DougFordhasjoinedthe
race(48%),whileveryfew
MajoritywantRobFordtoresign,onehalftowithdrawfromWard2race
saytheyarelessmotivated
JustmorethanonehalfthinkRobFordshouldresignasmayor(54%),butjustfewer
tovote(3%).
thinkheshouldwithdrawfromtheWard2councilorsrace(50%).Fourinten
Justmorethanonehalfthink
disagreewiththeformer(39%)andthelatter(43%).
RobFordshouldresignas
mayor(54%),butjustfewer
VotersequallylikelytopreferbothDougandRobformayor
thinkheshouldwithdraw
OnequarterssaytheywouldpreferRobFordasmayor(26%)andasimilar
fromtheWard2councilors
proportionoptforhisbrotherDoug(24%).Aboutonetenthsayeitheronewoulddo
race(50%).
(12%),while4in10wantnothingtodowitheitherbrother(38%).DougFord
Onequarterssaytheywould
supportersaremuchmorelikelytopreferRob(46%)thanDoug(34%)formayor.
preferRobFordasmayor
(26%)andasimilar
TorypreferredtoChowandFordina1on1;ChowbeatsFord
proportionoptforhis
Inthreescenarioswherejusttwocandidatescompete,JohnToryhastheadvantage,
brotherDoug(24%).
winningbotha1on1againstDougFord(57%to35%)andagainstChow(49%to
Inthreescenarioswherejust
35%).Intheremaining1on1race,OliviaChowdefeatsDougFord(50%to41%).
twocandidatescompete,
Onequarterwouldpayupto$1adaytobuildtransit/infrastructure
JohnToryhastheadvantage,
winningbotha1on1
ClosetoonequarterofTorontovoterswillspendupto$1adayormoreextrato
againstDougFord(57%to
seethevarioustransitandinfrastructurepromisesmadebycandidatesformayor
35%)andagainstChow(49%
built(23%),andmorethanathirdwouldpayupto50centsormore(36%).On
to35%).
average,includingtheonethirdwhosaytheywillpaynothing(32%),theaverage
amountTorontovoterssaytheywouldspendis17centsaday.
180BloorStreetW.,#1400
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:

416.960.9603
Accessibletransit,repairingsewer/waterinfrastructurekeynontransit
issues
TORONTO
Whenvotersarepresentedwithalistofissuesnotincludingbuildingtransit,theone September 22nd, 2014
thatrisestothetopofconcernismakingtransitmoreaccessible(26%),followedby
repairingsewer/watersystemsnow(19%)anddealingmoreeffectivelywiththe
HIGHLIGHTS:
mentallyillonourstreets(10%).Thereislessconcernaboutcontrollingthepolice
budget(8%),termlimitsatcityhall(7%),tollinghighways(6%),movingmarathons
Whenvotersarepresented
andparadesoffmajorthoroughfares(5%)orensuringpaybackfromthePanAm
withalistofissuesnot
Games(2%).AmongDougFord'ssupporters,accessibletransit(15%),repairing
includingbuildingtransit,the
sewersandwatersystems(18%),controllingthepolicebudget(15%)anddealing
onethatrisestothetopof
withthementallyill(12%)areimportant.Torysupportersareconcernedwith
concernismakingtransit
accessibletransit(30%)andrepairinginfrastructure(22%)most,whileChowvoters
moreaccessible(26%),
areconcernedwithaccessibletransit(36%),thementallyill(18%)andaging
followedbyrepairing
infrastructure(15%).AmongtheverysmallsampleofAriGoldkindsupporters,aging
sewer/watersystemsnow
infrastructurerepairsarekey.
(19%)anddealingmore
effectivelywiththementally
"DougmaynotbequiteaswelllikedbyFordNationashismorecuddlybrother,but
illonourstreets(10%).
hisHailMaryentryintotheracehascertainlygalvanizeditscitizens,andthey're
"Dougmaynotbequiteas
eagertovotefortheirnewchampion.Thechallengewillbeforthemtoovercome
welllikedbyFordNationas
thestrongmotivationthatisalsodrivingJohnTory'ssupporters,"saidForum
hismorecuddlybrother,but
ResearchPresident,Dr.LorneBozinoff.
hisHailMaryentryintothe
LorneBozinoff,Ph.D.isthepresidentandfounderofForumResearch.Hecanbe
racehascertainlygalvanized
reachedatlbozinoff@forumresearch.comorat(416)9609603.
itscitizens,andthey'reeager
tovotefortheirnew
champion.Thechallengewill
beforthemtoovercomethe
strongmotivationthatisalso
drivingJohnTory's
supporters,"saidForum
ResearchPresident,Dr.Lorne
Bozinoff.
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
Methodology
TheForumPollwasconductedbyForumResearchwiththeresultsbasedonan
interactivevoiceresponsetelephonesurveyof1164randomlyselectedvotersin
Toronto,Ontario.ThepollwasconductedonSeptember22nd,2014.
TORONTO
Resultsbasedonthetotalsampleareconsideredaccurate+/3%,19timesoutof
20.Subsampleresultswillbelessaccurate.Marginsoferrorforsubsample(such
asage,gender)resultsareavailableatwww.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp
Whereappropriate,thedatahasbeenstatisticallyweightedbyage,region,and
othervariablestoensurethatthesamplereflectstheactualpopulationaccording
tothelatestCensusdata.
Thisresearchisnotnecessarilypredictiveoffutureoutcomes,butrather,
capturesopinionatonepointintime.ForumResearchconductedthispollasa
publicserviceandtodemonstrateoursurveyresearchcapabilities.Forumhouses
itspollresultsintheDataLibraryoftheDepartmentofPoliticalScienceatthe
UniversityofToronto.
WithofficesacrossCanadaandaroundtheworld,100%CanadianownedForum
Researchisoneofthecountrysleadingsurveyresearchfirms.ThisForum
PollandotherpollsmaybefoundatForum'spollarchive
atwww.forumresearch.com/polls.asp
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
ShouldFordResignTrending
%
nd
Sep.22 ,2014
th
August2526 ,2014
Sample
ShouldResign
ShouldNotResign
Dontknow
1164
54
39
931
50
45
1268
58
39
1063
59
37
1182
62
34
890
58
37
944
63
33
923
63
32
st
May1 ,2014
888
63
31
th
898
60
35
th
August56 ,2014
st
July21 ,2014
nd
July2 ,2014
th
June19 ,2014
th
June6 ,2014
st
May21 ,2014
Dec.9 ,2013
th
Nov.20 ,2013
1049
62
36
Nov.6 ,2013
th
1157
61
35
th
Nov.4 ,2013
1393
59
38
st
1032
60
36
Oct.31 ,2013
TORONTO
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
VoteLikelihood
HowlikelyareyoutovoteinthemunicipalelectioninOctober?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
%
Sample
Absolutelycertain
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Total
1834
3544
4554
5564
65+
Male
Female
1164
86
76
86
113
87
221
83
302
86
452
85
521
90
643
82
Region
%
Sample
Absolutelycertain
Total
1164
86
TorontoorEast
York
434
93
North
York
245
78
Etobicokeor
York
255
87
Scarborough
230
83
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
Absolutelycertain
Total <$20K
1164
86
79
79
$20
$40K
181
84
$40
$60K
154
86
$60
$80K
137
86
$80
$100K
131
92
$100
$250K
201
93
$250K+
50
86
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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EffectonVoteChoice:DougasaReplacementforRobFord
Areyoumorelikelytovoteinthiselection,lesslikelytovoteinthiselection
orneithermorenorlesslikelytovotenowthatDougFordhasreplacedhis
brotherRobascandidateformayor?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female
Sample
Morelikely
Lesslikely
Neithermorenorlesslikely
Don'tknow
1164
48
3
48
1
76
47
3
51
0
113
39
3
57
2
221
52
2
44
2
302
53
4
43
1
452
58
3
37
2
521
54
3
43
0
643
44
3
52
2
Region
1164
48
3
TorontoorEast
York
434
41
3
North
York
245
53
2
Etobicokeor
York
255
40
1
48
55
44
57
30
Total
Sample
Morelikely
Lesslikely
Neithermorenorless
likely
Don'tknow
Scarborough
230
63
5
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
Morelikely
Lesslikely
Neithermore
norlesslikely
Don'tknow
1164
48
3
79
41
5
$20
$40K
181
67
4
48
51
27
38
50
50
66
51
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
57
4
$60
$80K
137
49
2
$80
$100K
131
50
0
$100
$250K
201
31
3
$250K+
50
43
6
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
RobFordResignation
DoyouthinkMayorRobFordshouldresignornot?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Sample
Shouldresign
Shouldnotresign
Don'tknow
1164
54
39
7
76
56
37
7
113
52
40
8
221
51
42
7
302
53
41
6
452
61
32
7
521
54
39
7
643
55
38
7
Region
1164
54
TorontoorEast
York
434
65
North
York
245
61
Etobicokeor
York
255
49
39
32
33
43
50
12
Total
Sample
Shouldresign
Shouldnot
resign
Don'tknow
Scarborough
230
38
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
Shouldresign
Shouldnot
resign
Don'tknow
1164
54
79
37
$20
$40K
181
52
39
59
41
43
39
46
25
22
13
13
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
44
$60
$80K
137
56
$80
$100K
131
49
$100
$250K
201
71
$250K+
50
65
Education
1164
Secondary
schoolorless
152
Somecollegeor
university
323
Completedcollege
oruniversity
424
Postgraduate
studies
265
54
42
49
54
67
39
48
41
41
27
11
10
Total
Sample
Should
resign
Shouldnot
resign
Don'tknow
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
RobFordWithdrawalfromWard2Race
DoyouthinkMayorRobFordshouldwithdrawfromtheraceforWard2
councilorornot?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Sample
Shouldwithdraw
Shouldnotwithdraw
Don'tknow
1164
50
43
6
76
48
45
7
113
50
44
5
221
50
43
6
302
50
43
6
452
57
38
6
521
52
44
4
643
49
42
8
Region
1164
50
TorontoorEast
York
434
60
North
York
245
53
Etobicokeor
York
255
43
43
35
42
48
49
Total
Sample
Shouldwithdraw
Shouldnot
withdraw
Don'tknow
Scarborough
230
42
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
Should
withdraw
Shouldnot
withdraw
Don'tknow
1164
79
$20
$40K
181
50
20
59
36
48
53
71
62
43
79
36
51
43
43
24
32
13
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
$60
$80K
137
$80
$100K
131
$100
$250K
201
$250K+
50
Education
%
Sample
Should
withdraw
Shouldnot
withdraw
Don'tknow
Total
Secondary
schoolorless
Somecollegeor
university
Completedcollege
oruniversity
1164
152
323
424
Post
graduate
studies
265
50
40
41
50
67
43
52
52
43
29
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
FordMayoralPreference:Dougvs.Rob
Whowouldyouratherseeasmayor,RobFordorDougFord?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
%
Sample
RobFord
DougFord
Eitherone
Neitherone
Don'tknow
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO

1164
26
24
12
38
1
76
28
27
11
31
2
113
25
23
16
37
0
221
27
25
8
40
1
302
29
20
8
42
1
452
21
19
15
44
0
521
32
21
10
37
1
643
21
26
14
38
1
Region
%
Sample
RobFord
DougFord
Eitherone
Neitherone
Don'tknow
Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

1164
26
24
12
38
1
434
22
18
12
47
1
245
18
27
10
43
2
255
33
24
11
31
0
230
35
26
14
25
0
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
RobFord
DougFord
Eitherone
Neither
one
Don't
know
1164
26
24
12
79
41
26
18
$20
$40K
181
32
22
11
38
14
34
31
31
46
54
36
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
33
20
16
$60
$80K
137
26
29
10
$80
$100K
131
25
20
10
$100
$250K
201
24
17
5
$250K+
50
6
46
11
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
DougFord/Tory
WhowillyouvoteforifthecandidatesareJohnToryandDougFord?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Sample
JohnTory
DougFord
Someothercandidate
Don'tknow
1164
57
35
5
2
76
57
36
6
1
113
54
36
6
4
221
54
36
6
4
302
56
37
4
2
452
66
28
4
1
521
54
37
7
2
643
60
33
4
3
Region
1164
57
35
TorontoorEast
York
434
69
21
North
York
245
63
30
Etobicokeor
York
255
55
39
Total
Sample
JohnTory
DougFord
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
Scarborough
230
36
57
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
JohnTory
DougFord
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
1164
57
35
79
41
52
$20
$40K
181
46
46
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
52
40
$60
$80K
137
60
35
$80
$100K
131
50
40
$100
$250K
201
75
16
$250K+
50
68
30
10
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
Tory/Chow
WhowillyouvoteforifthecandidatesareJohnToryandOliviaChow?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Sample
JohnTory
OliviaChow
Someothercandidate
Don'tknow
1164
49
35
11
6
76
39
45
12
4
113
45
36
11
8
221
52
30
12
7
302
53
31
12
5
452
66
22
8
4
521
48
36
12
5
643
50
33
10
6
Region
1164
49
35
TorontoorEast
York
434
52
40
North
York
245
49
34
Etobicokeor
York
255
43
34
11
13
14
13
10
Total
Sample
JohnTory
OliviaChow
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
Scarborough
230
51
28
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
JohnTory
OliviaChow
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
1164
49
35
79
27
47
$20
$40K
181
47
42
11
16
14
13
10
22
10
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
49
35
$60
$80K
137
47
37
$80
$100K
131
49
32
$100
$250K
201
56
33
$250K+
50
38
34
11
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
DougFord/Chow
WhowillyouvoteforifthecandidatesareDougFordandOliviaChow?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Sample
DougFord
OliviaChow
Someothercandidate
Don'tknow
1164
41
50
5
4
76
44
53
1
2
113
37
52
6
6
221
41
49
5
5
302
48
43
6
4
452
38
46
10
6
521
45
48
4
3
643
39
51
5
5
Region
1164
41
50
TorontoorEast
York
434
33
58
North
York
245
36
53
Etobicokeor
York
255
42
50
Total
Sample
DougFord
OliviaChow
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
Scarborough
230
59
35
HouseholdIncome
%
Sample
DougFord
OliviaChow
Someother
candidate
Don'tknow
1164
41
50
79
59
35
$20
$40K
181
47
47
Total <$20K
$40
$60K
154
49
43
$60
$80K
137
38
56
$80
$100K
131
41
49
$100
$250K
201
23
68
$250K+
50
36
56
12
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
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PaymentperdaytoseeInfrastructurePromisesBuilt
Howmuchwouldyoupayperdaytoseeallofthemayoralcandidates
transitandinfrastructurepromisesbuilt?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Total 1834 3544 4554 5564
65+
Male Female
1164
32
15
7
6
11
4
8
17
0.91
452
32
13
10
3
10
2
4
24
0.74
521
32
15
7
6
12
4
14
10
1.16
Sample
Nothing
Upto25centsaday
Upto50centsaday
Upto75centsaday
Uptoadollaraday
Uptotwodollarsaday
Morethantwodollarsaday
Don'tknow
Mean
76
25
17
5
9
12
8
13
11
1.09
113
33
19
5
8
10
2
8
15
0.87
221
37
14
10
6
9
2
4
19
0.70
302
36
10
10
3
13
4
5
20
0.88
643
31
16
7
7
10
4
2
23
0.62
Region
1164
32
15
7
6
11
TorontoorEast
York
434
23
17
11
5
17
North
York
245
37
14
5
4
4
Etobicokeor
York
255
29
17
9
8
11
17
0.91
13
0.91
20
1.06
16
0.77
18
0.91
Total
Sample
Nothing
Upto25centsaday
Upto50centsaday
Upto75centsaday
Uptoadollaraday
Uptotwodollarsa
day
Morethantwodollars
aday
Don'tknow
Mean
Scarborough
230
40
12
4
9
10
13
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com
MostImportantIssue
Whichofthefollowingissuesismostimportanttoyouinthiselection?
[AllRespondents]
Age/Gender
1164
18
34
76
35
44
113
45
54
221
55
64
302
11
Total
Sample
EnsuringpaybackfromthePanAm
Games
Tollinghighwaystocontrol
congestion
ControllingthePolicebudget
Movingmarathonsandparadesoff
majorcitythoroughfares
Imposingtermlimitsatcityhall
Actingnowtorepairtheaging
sewerandwatersystem
Dealingmoreeffectivelywith
mentallyillpeopleonourstreets
Makingtransitmoreaccessible
MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
65+ Male Female

452
521
643
11
12
19
19
18
16
24
22
16
22
10
13
10
10
10
26
30
22
28
21
27
26
27
Region
1164
Torontoor
EastYork
434
North
York
245
Etobicokeor
York
255
16
19
17
18
23
19
10
11
15
26
30
29
21
24
Total
Sample
EnsuringpaybackfromthePan
AmGames
Tollinghighwaystocontrol
congestion
ControllingthePolicebudget
Movingmarathonsandparades
offmajorcitythoroughfares
Imposingtermlimitsatcityhall
Actingnowtorepairtheaging
sewerandwatersystem
Dealingmoreeffectivelywith
mentallyillpeopleonour
streets
Makingtransitmoreaccessible
14
Scarborough
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Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
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Fax:(416)9609602
Email:lbozinoff@forumresearch.com
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MEDIA INQUIRIES:
416.960.9603
TORONTO
Toronto,ONM5S2V6
T416.960.9600
F416.960.9602
forumresearch.com

Sept. 24 Forum Research Poll

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Sept. 24 Forum Research Poll

Enviado por

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Formatos disponíveis

MEDIA INQUIRIES:

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Lorne Bozinoff, President

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total TorontoorEastYork NorthYork EtobicokeorYork Scarborough

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564 65+ Male Female

Total 1834 3544 4554 5564

65+ Male Female

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