JPM Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets Equity Research
11 September 2014
Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards
See page 24 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of
this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Team Recommendations
Adrian Mowat
AC
Emerging Markets adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com (852) 2800 - 8599 J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
OW: Taiwan, India, Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, Greece,
UAE and Qatar
UW: Korea, Chile, Peru, Poland, South Africa, Malaysia and
Russia
KEY TRADES: EM joins the equity bull market,
Broadening global growth (Taiwan IT, Mexico, Greece)
Lower CAD risk and better policy (India, Indonesia, Thailand)
Pedro Martins Junior LatAm pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com (55-11) 4950-4121 Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.
David Aserkoff CEEMEA david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com (44-20) 7134-5887 J.P. Morgan Securities plc
Rajiv Batra Emerging Markets rajiv.j.batra@jpmorgan.com (91-22) 6157-3568 J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Sanaya Tavaria Emerging Markets sanaya.x.tavaria@jpmorgan.com (1-212) 622-5469 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
Global Emerging Markets Research
Luis Oganes Global Emerging Markets luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com (1-212) 834-4326 J.P. Morgan Securities LLC
For full list of J.P. Morgan equity strategists please see the directory on the back page
Key Changes
Market performance to 10 September, 2014
Year to date: MSCI Emerging Markets 9.8% outperforming MSCI World by 3.9%
Year to date: MSCI EM Latin America 15.7% outperforming MSCI Emerging Markets
by 5.9%
Top three markets YTD in US$: UAE, Egypt and Indonesia
Bottom three markets YTD in US$: Russia, Chile and Poland
Liquidity Monitor
Top three markets by increase in ADTV (1 wk Avg. vs 3MMA): Philippines
(US$0.5bn, up 150%), Colombia (US$2.1bn, up 62%) and South Africa (US$1.3bn, up
0%)
Top three markets by increase in Daily Velocity Ratio (1 wk Avg. vs 3MMA):
Philippines, Colombia, and South Africa
Sector performance
Year to date: MSCI EM Healthcare 21% outperforming MSCI Emerging Markets by
11.2%
Year to date: MSCI EM Materials -0.2% underperforming MSCI Emerging Markets by
10%
Top three key market sectors YTD in US$: Brazil Financials, Brazil Energy and India
Financials
Bottom three key market sectors YTD in US$: Russia Energy, Korea Materials and
Korea Information Technology
Demand classification sector performance
YTD: Domestic Demand 11.5%, Global Capex 9.4%, Global Consumer 7.6% and
Global Price Takers 4.1%
Headline inflation data published since the last publication:
China: CPI 2.0%oya (J.P Morgan 2.3%, Consensus 2.2%)
Philippines: CPI 4.9%oya (Consensus 5.0%)
Taiwan: CPI 2.1%oya (J.P Morgan 1.8%, Consensus 1.8%)
Brazil: CPI 6.5%oya (J.P Morgan 6.57%, Consensus 6.52%)
Colombia: CPI 3.0%oya (J.P Morgan 2.93%, Consensus 2.94%)
Mexico: CPI 4.2%oya (J.P Morgan 4.16%, Consensus 4.10%)
Chile: CPI 4.5%oya (J.P Morgan 4.3%, Consensus 4.3%)
Czech Republic: CPI 0.6%oya (Consensus 0.5 %)
Russia: CPI 7.6%oya (J.P Morgan 7.6%, Consensus 7.6%)
Greece: CPI -0.3%oya (Consensus -0.5 %)
Turkey: CPI 9.5%oya (Consensus 9.4%)
J.P. Morgan's revisions to 2014 GDP forecasts
Negative: Korea 3.6% [3.7%]
J.P. Morgan's revisions to 2015 GDP forecasts
Negative: Chile 3.1% [3.2%]
J.P. Morgan's revisions to central bank policy rate forecasts
Philippines: Current 4.00% [3.75%], Last change 11 Sep 14 +25bp [31
Jul 14 +25bp], Forecast next change # [11 Sep 14 +25bp], Sep 14 4.00%,
Dec 14 4.00%, Mar 15 4.00%
Table of Contents Page #
Regional Summary 2
Market Performance 3
Liquidity Monitor 4
Monitoring Inflation 5
Market Drivers 6
Cross-section Earnings Growth 7
Earnings Revisions 8,9,10
Sector-Country PE Matrix 11
Valuation Distribution 12
Demand Classification 13
Equities relative to Bonds 14
Economic Momentum 15
Policy Rates Forecast 16
Currency Forecasts 17,18
Credit Risk 19
Emerging Market Balance
Sheets
20
Emerging Market in Perspective 21
Emerging Capital Market 22
Index Weightings 23
Please see Key Trades and Risks: Emerging
Markets Equity Strategy, Mowat et al, 27 August
2014, for our non-consensus bullish call and new
target of 1200 for the EM index. For more on the
case for emerging market equities please see The
Underdog is Back: The case for an Emerging
Equities Bull Market, Mowat, et al., 25 July 2014.
2
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Research
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599,adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Summary: Regional and Country Valuations
10-Sep-14 Hist.^ P/ EPS Current 12m Prospective Hist.^ Current Prospective Hist.^ Current Prospective
MSCI Index Trough (Trend) Trailing Fwd 2013 2014E 2015E Peak Trailing 2014E 2015E Trough Trailing 2014E 2015E 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E
Global* 468 9.4 15.6 16.0 14.5 16.8 15.7 14.1 4.1 2.6 2.6 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.1 8.0 7.1 11.3 12.5 12.4 13.0
USA 1,910 11.6 17.7 17.6 16.0 18.4 17.3 15.5 4.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 5.3 8.0 6.6 11.7 14.7 14.4 15.0
Europe* 1,406 9.8 12.5 15.5 14.0 16.2 15.3 13.5 6.1 3.5 3.6 3.9 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.6 -3.8 -5.9 6.1 12.8 11.0 11.2 12.2
Japan* 800 11.5 26.8 15.1 14.0 27.3 15.6 14.6 3.0 1.7 2.1 2.3 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 -14.0 10.9 75.7 6.3 5.1 7.8 7.8
Emerging Markets* 50,705 7.9 10.4 12.1 11.0 12.7 11.9 10.6 3.6 2.7 2.8 3.1 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.3 -2.7 20.2 7.3 11.8 12.7 12.7 13.3
EMF Asia 737 8.5 13.6 12.7 11.4 13.8 12.3 11.1 3.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.5 5.6 7.5 12.7 11.2 12.7 13.3 13.7
EMF LatAm* 7,556,719 8.6 10.0 14.9 13.1 15.5 14.6 12.5 5.1 3.0 3.0 3.3 0.6 1.8 1.8 1.6 -18.6 5.5 5.8 16.5 11.7 12.0 13.4
EMF EMEA* 501 8.7 6.7 9.6 9.1 9.5 9.6 8.9 4.9 3.4 3.7 4.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 -10.4 96.6 -1.3 8.8 13.1 12.3 12.4
China 67 7.2 8.3 10.4 9.3 11.1 10.1 9.0 5.7 3.2 3.2 3.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 10.9 9.6 11.7 14.7 15.2 15.4
Brazil* 219,657 9.6 9.2 12.3 11.0 12.8 12.1 10.6 7.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 -30.7 13.8 5.3 14.9 11.5 12.3 13.4
Korea 580 7.7 9.3 11.5 9.9 12.7 11.0 9.4 2.9 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.0 7.7 -5.9 15.2 17.0 9.4 10.1 10.9
Taiwan 341 12.1 16.6 15.2 13.7 17.4 14.4 13.4 7.8 2.9 2.9 3.3 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.7 3.9 36.9 21.0 7.7 12.0 13.5 13.3
South Africa* 1,284 9.1 14.7 15.5 13.8 16.9 14.9 13.4 4.7 3.1 3.2 3.6 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 8.2 4.9 13.3 11.6 16.8 17.4 17.8
India 1,016 9.6 18.8 19.4 16.6 21.3 18.7 15.9 2.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 3.0 2.9 2.6 10.0 7.1 13.9 17.6 16.5 16.5 17.1
Russia* 749 3.2 2.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 5.3 4.9 5.3 6.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5 -11.1 -4.2 -2.7 0.0 13.0 11.7 11.0
Mexico* 43,934 9.0 13.1 22.3 19.6 22.2 22.4 18.6 4.1 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 37.3 -1.8 -0.8 20.1 13.4 12.5 14.6
Malaysia 660 10.3 17.1 16.5 15.3 17.3 16.2 14.9 5.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 0.6 2.1 2.1 1.9 15.6 0.3 7.1 8.8 12.8 13.2 13.3
Chile* 4,439 11.4 15.2 19.3 15.7 21.5 18.4 14.7 8.9 2.5 2.6 2.8 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.5 -19.3 -7.6 16.5 24.9 8.3 8.9 10.7
Indonesia 6,074 4.8 15.6 16.3 14.6 17.7 15.8 14.1 5.9 2.4 2.5 2.7 0.9 3.4 3.3 2.9 13.7 3.6 12.2 11.4 22.1 22.2 21.7
Turkey* 1,137,256 5.1 7.8 11.2 10.0 11.1 11.3 9.5 9.4 2.6 3.0 3.3 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 17.1 9.9 -1.9 18.4 15.8 13.8 14.8
Thailand 550 7.7 10.6 14.9 13.1 16.2 14.4 12.6 5.9 3.0 3.0 3.3 0.6 2.2 2.1 1.9 16.3 7.4 12.5 14.0 15.3 15.6 15.9
Poland* 1,823 6.8 11.0 14.6 13.9 14.3 14.7 13.6 7.1 3.7 3.9 4.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 -5.6 -22.1 -2.7 8.1 10.0 9.5 9.8
Czech Republic* 302 7.3 7.0 12.8 14.2 11.6 13.4 14.5 10.0 5.4 5.4 5.2 0.5 1.5 1.5 1.2 -3.2 -10.9 -13.6 -7.2 13.4 11.4 9.1
Egypt* 1,869 5.5 9.1 22.6 10.7 20.9 23.5 8.6 8.4 1.5 2.1 3.4 1.0 2.0 1.8 1.6 4.6 -28.2 -10.9 171.8 7.8 9.0 19.6
Philippines 1,227 8.8 29.3 21.4 19.2 22.2 21.1 18.4 4.9 2.1 2.1 2.4 0.9 3.1 3.0 2.8 9.1 8.8 5.6 14.3 15.6 15.0 15.6
Hungary* 862 4.3 5.0 10.7 10.0 8.4 12.1 9.3 5.3 3.4 3.2 4.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 -12.3 0.1 -30.3 30.2 10.9 7.3 8.8
Greece 236 - - - - 13.9 - 16.1 8.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 - 1.1 1.1 1.1 -8.0 3.0 - - 11.5 - 6.7
UAE 563 - - 18.6 17.3 19.7 18.2 17.0 - 2.2 2.3 2.7 - 2.1 2.1 1.9 - 13.2 8.1 7.3 11.3 11.5 11.8
Qatar 1,169 - - 17.6 15.7 18.6 17.1 15.2 - 3.7 3.7 4.1 - 2.6 2.6 2.4 - 6.3 8.9 12.9 14.4 15.2 16.4
Source: I/B/E/S, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Updated as of 10 September 2014
* Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. IBES Estimates are not available for Morocco, Jordan, Peru and Colombia.
For all other markets, forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and I/B/E/S estimates for the rest.
Hist.^ refers to the historically lowest valuation of the MSCI indices since Jan 1991. Trough PE represents the lowest 12 month trailing PE. For dividend yield the highest values are taken to represent the best multiple.
USA, Europe and Japan PE are I/B/E/S aggregate estimates. Japan Valuation estimates are for the financial year ending March
P / EPS (Trend) uses the trend EPS for the indices calculated by the linear regression on the natural log of trailing EPS. For more, please refer to 'Mayday call for the shorts - Perspectives and Portfolios', 5 May 2009, Mowat et al.
P / EPS (Trend)' is NM for indices where the modeled relationship is weak with a less than 0.50 R-square. The start dates China and Singapore models are modified to make them more relevant. Sector indices inputs have not been altered.
11 September 2014
P/E (x) Div. Yield (%) P/BV (x) Earnings growth (%) ROE (%)
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J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-8599 , adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Market Performance: MSCI AC Performance by Region, Country and Sector

YTD 2014
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Consumer Discretionary 0.9% 3.3% -4.7% -3.4% 11.2% 7.4% 19.5% 17.4% 7.4% 1.3% -4.3% 3.5% 35.9% -1.0% 25.6% 17.9% 11.4%
Consumer Staples 4.0% 5.3% 0.9% 7.6% 5.4% 8.8% 4.1% -2.7% 8.8% 26.6% 6.1% -12.0% 14.2% -2.6% 7.4% 17.4% 53.1%
Energy 8.9% 10.9% 1.6% 4.2% 8.3% 10.9% 32.3% -5.3% 10.9% -34.7% -7.1% 15.4% 23.2% -20.2% 5.8% 20.8%
Financials 4.7% 6.9% -1.7% -10.9% 11.6% 9.4% 33.0% 0.4% 9.4% 8.8% 7.5% -0.3% 33.0% -2.8% 34.9% 33.1% 26.3%
Healthcare 13.5% 15.3% 9.3% 8.7% 21.0% 26.9% 0.0% 12.2% 26.9% 0.0% -28.5% 10.2% 36.1% 25.6% 71.6% 0.0%
Industrials 1.2% 2.7% -5.4% 3.9% 6.8% 5.1% 14.9% 6.5% 5.1% -4.0% 0.7% -0.9% 43.6% 2.0% 36.2% 22.2% 16.1%
Information Technology 11.4% 12.9% -3.3% 5.0% 14.1% 13.8% 30.0% 13.8% -7.2% 25.3% 29.0% 13.2%
Materials 3.4% 9.5% 0.0% 1.1% -0.2% 1.6% -4.4% 4.0% 1.6% -7.6% -3.0% 2.7% 28.5% -5.0% 0.6% 18.9%
Telecoms 1.8% 2.7% -5.0% -6.4% 10.7% 18.0% 5.0% 1.0% 18.0% 15.4% -1.8% 24.1% 9.3% 3.8% 17.2% 27.6% 23.8%
Utilities 11.2% 12.4% 11.3% -6.0% 14.4% 14.6% 15.6% 12.0% 14.6% 17.9% 11.6% 17.9% 1.9% 30.5% 32.4% 21.9%
Region / Country
Benchmark
5.9% 8.6% 0.0% -1.2% 9.8% 10.5% 15.7% 1.5% 10.5% -1.5% 14.2% 7.8% 24.9% -1.4% 19.7% 25.6% 23.2%
Change vs dollar 4.9% 0.4% 3.0% -0.5% -1.4% 2.2% 3.0% 2.1% 3.5% 1.8%

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Consumer Discretionary 19.5% 24.8% 21.2% -3.9% 17.2% 19.8% 10.8% 39.2% 21.3%
Consumer Staples 4.1% 3.0% 0.7% -3.8% 8.7% -3.8% 1.3% 1.6% 12.6% -29.6%
Energy 32.3% 34.7% 6.9% 42.1% -8.6% -10.2% 20.9% 0.2% 18.2% -1.1% -15.9%
Financials 33.0% 38.6% 6.2% 8.9% 87.8% 22.3% 25.4% -7.1% 15.0% -21.5% 25.3% 3.3% 6.0% 10.2% 52.1% -9.8%
Healthcare 0.0% -1.1% -18.1% 19.6% -9.3%
Industrials 14.9% 15.1% 16.8% -7.2% 9.0% 8.9% 16.8%
Information Technology 30.0% 23.1%
Materials -4.4% -21.4% 11.1% 10.6% 19.3% 22.8% 3.9% 6.5% 12.3% 52.8% 6.8%
Telecoms 5.0% -6.8% 8.9% -2.0% 49.0% -10.1% 13.5% -8.5% 12.2% 11.6% 0.1% 8.8% 12.7%
Utilities 15.6% 14.8% 24.6% -0.9% 12.0% 29.6% 21.9% 3.6%
Region / Country
Benchmark
15.7% 16.1% 8.2% 7.6% 58.4% 20.9% 13.1% -6.3% 14.9% -3.7% 21.0% 6.0% -5.0% 13.7% 37.6% 0.1% 44.2% 23.9%
Change vs dollar 5.6% 0.0% -10.7% -22.5% -2.0% 0.4% -1.6% -10.8% -0.3% -5.6% -9.7% -5.8% -2.8% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Notes Updated as of 10 September 2014
Source: Bloomberg, MSCI.
Regional headings first sorted by regional weights in the MSCI EMF and then country headings from left to right by relative weights within the MSCI EMF
Indices: Regions in US$ and countries in local currency. Local currency movements against the dollar : appreciation / (depreciation)
Country and sector cross sections in italic blue have outperformed their indices by more than 2%. Shaded areas have underperformed their indices by more than 2%.
11 September 2014
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited: Adrian Mowat (852) 2800-85 ! adrian.mowat"#$morgan.com
Equity Markets Liquidity Monitor
Country Stock FF Mkt Cap
Exchange (US$ Bn) 1 k !"g # MM! 1# !"g 1 k !"g #M !"g 1# !"g
$e"e%ope& Markets
%S &'S( ) &AS*A+ ) AM(, 22!--5 ./ 02 .8 0.1- 0.1 0.20
%2 London St3 (4c5ange .!/5/ /.. /.2 -.5 0.1 0.1 0.1
Ja$an 6o37o St3 (4c5ange .!558 1/ 18 25 0.08 0.50 0./5
Austra8ia AS, 1!05. 0. 0.1 0.. 0..0 0.2 0..2
92 92S( 2!088 /./ 5. 5. 0..2 0.2- 0.28
Singa$ore SS( .-5 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.2. 0.21 0..2
EM !sia
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=ndia >S( ; &S( 0/- ..- ..5 2.. 0.// 0.// 0.-8
=ndonesia JS( 18. 0.- 0.5 0.- 0..0 0..0 0...
2orea 2S( 80 0.0 ..8 ..- 0.0/ 0.0- 0.0
Ma8a7sia >ursa Ma8a7sia 2.5 0.8 0./ 0.- 0..0 0.28 0.2
P5i8i$$ines PS( /2 0.5 0.2 0.. 0.-0 0..2 0..
11 September 2014
$ai%y 'ra&ing (a%ue (US$ )n) $ai%y (e%ocity Ratio (*)
BR+C 'ra&ing "a%ue (US$ )n, #MM!)
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Me4ico St3 (4c5ange ) *? .11 2.1 1.. 1./ 0.- 0.00 0.55
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Santiago St3 (4c5ange 101 0.10 0.10 0.18 0.1. 0.10 0.10
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Lima St3 (4c5ange .8 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0- 0.0- 0.0-
Source: >8oomBerg! J.P. Morgan. &otes: Mar3et ca$ uses a88 e4c5anges coDered B7 >8oomBerg for a s$ecific countr7 and $rimar7 securit7 of com$an7 on87. %$dated as of 5 Se$temBer 2010
65e 8atest one wee3 aDerage is red (gre7 Bo4 in >;@! dar3 B8ue in B8ue sca8e) if 8ess t5an 0E of t5e t5ree mont5 aDerage or B8ue (so8id B8ac3 Bo4 in >;@! 8ig5t B8ue in B8ue sca8e) if greater t5an 110E of t5e t5ree mont5 aDerage.
6o ca8cu8ate t5e free f8oat we use t5e MS:= free f8oat factor for a88 mar3ets e4ce$t for 9ong 2ong! ?ussia and Sout5 Africa w5ere we ca8cu8ate t5e free f8oat for t5e 9ong 2ong :om$osite =nde4! M=:(,! and JS(.
6rading Da8ue ca8cu8ation for ?ussia! Me4ico and >ra<i8! inc8udes Da8ue of de$ositor7 recei$ts traded (*?) a8ong wit5 8oca8 stoc3 e4c5ange turnoDer. Sout5 Africa and Austra8ia mar3et ca$ita8isation and trading Da8ue inc8udes on87 8oca8 8isted $ortion of dua8 8isted stoc3s.
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11 September 2014
Monitoring Inflation: The real threat to EM equities
Inflation CB Inflation JPM f'cast CPI (YoY) Policy Rate Policy Rate Policy Rate
Country Rate Target (%) CY2014 Date Previous Latest MoM 3M ann Previous Latest YoY 3M ann Current Last Change Next Change
Developed Markets
United States Chained CPI na 1.9 Jul-14 2.1 2.0 0.1 2.8 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.0 0.13 16 Dec 08 (-87.5bp) 3Q 15 (+25bp)
US core PPI Core PPI SA na na Jul-14 1.9 1.8 0.1 1.5 - - - - - - -
US Unit Labor Cost LC Nonfarm na na Jun-14 2.5 1.7 NA (0.1) - - - - - - -
Euro Area CPI under 2% 0.6 Aug-14 0.4 0.3 0.1 (1.8) (1.1) (1.0) 0.9 (1.7) 0.05 4 Sep 14 (-10bp) 3Q 18 (+20bp)
Japan CPI na 2.9 Jul-14 3.6 3.4 0.0 1.2 5.2 4.5 2.3 0.0 0.05 5 Oct 10 (-5bp) On hold
Australia CPI 2 - 3 2.6 Jun-14 2.9 3.0 NA 1.9 2.2 2.5 na na 2.50 6 Aug 13 (-25bp) 3Q 15 (+25bp)
Hong Kong CPI na 4.0 Jul-14 3.6 4.0 1.0 4.1 4.2 4.1 3.1 5.4 0.50 17 Dec 08 (-100bp) 3Q 15 (+25bp)
Singapore CPI na 1.5 Jul-14 1.8 1.2 (0.3) (1.7) 3.1 3.0 0.7 (3.2) - - -
EM Asia
China CPI 4% 2.2 Aug-14 2.3 2.0 (0.5) (2.4) 3.6 3.0 1.7 1.4 6.00 7 Jul 12 (-31bp) On hold
Korea CPI 3.0 (1) 1.5 Aug-14 1.6 1.4 0.2 0.8 1.1 (0.4) 2.3 1.5 2.25 14 Aug 14 (-25bp) On hold
Indonesia CPI 4.5 (1) 5.7 Aug-14 4.5 4.0 (0.2) 7.6 9.1 2.3 5.5 4.8 7.50 12 Nov 13 (+25bp) On hold
India WPI na na Jul-14 5.4 5.2 1.1 8.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 5.2 8.00 28 Jan 14 (+25bp) 4Q 14 (+25bp)
India CPI 6% 8.5 Jul-14 8.6 8.0 1.1 8.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 5.2 8.00 28 Jan 14 (+25bp) 4Q 14 (+25bp)
Malaysia CPI na 2.7 Jul-14 3.3 3.2 0.1 1.5 3.5 3.1 2.6 1.1 3.25 10 Jul 14 (+25bp) 18 Sep 14 (+25bp)
Philippines CPI 4.0 (1) 4.2 Aug-14 4.9 4.9 0.3 5.3 4.6 4.0 2.5 1.2 4.00 11 Sep 14 (+25bp) -
Thailand CPI 0.5 - 3.0 2.6 Aug-14 2.2 2.1 (0.1) (1.1) 0.2 (0.6) 0.4 1.0 2.00 12 Mar 14 (-25bp) 1Q 15 (+25bp)
Taiwan CPI na 1.4 Aug-14 1.8 2.1 0.4 3.7 4.2 5.6 1.1 3.1 1.88 30 Jun 11 (+12.5bp) 1Q 15 (+12.5bp)
Latin America
Brazil CPI IPCA 4.5 (2) 6.3 Aug-14 6.5 6.5 0.3 2.7 7.7 7.5 6.7 7.2 11.00 2 Apr 14 (+25bp) On hold
Colombia CPI 3.0 (1) 2.8 Aug-14 2.9 3.0 0.2 1.8 3.3 3.5 na na 4.50 29 Aug 14 (+25bp) 4Q 14 (+25bp)
Mexico CPI 3.0 (1) 4.1 Aug-14 4.1 4.2 0.4 3.3 5.4 5.7 3.4 2.5 3.00 6 Jun 14 (-50bp) 4Q 15 (+25bp)
Peru CPI 2.0 (1) 3.0 Aug-14 3.3 2.7 (0.1) 2.1 4.0 3.6 2.6 1.5 3.75 10 Jul 14 (-25bp) 1Q 15 (+25bp)
Chile CPI NSA 3.0 (1) 4.0 Aug-14 4.7 4.5 0.3 2.4 6.3 6.7 4.4 4.1 3.50 14 Aug 14 (-25bp) 11 Sep 14 (-25bp)
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Czech Republic CPI 2.0 (1) 0.9 Aug-14 0.5 0.6 0.7 2.7 0.6 1.1 0.7 1.8 0.05 1 Nov 12 (-20bp) On hold
Hungary CPI 3% 0.1 Jul-14 (0.1) 0.2 (2.4) (10.2) (1.1) (0.3) 2.7 2.7 2.10 22 Jul 14 (-20bp) 4Q 15 (+20bp)
Poland CPI 1.5 - 3.5% 0.2 Jul-14 0.3 (0.2) 0.6 2.0 0.3 (0.4) 0.3 0.5 2.50 3 Jul 13 (-25bp) 4Q 14 (-50bp)
Russia CPI 5-6% 7.2 Aug-14 7.5 7.6 2.2 11.8 9.9 10.3 6.6 12.5 8.00 25 Jul 14 (+50bp) 1Q 15 (-25bp)
South Africa CPI 3-6% 6.1 Jul-14 6.6 6.3 0.8 5.2 9.2 9.0 5.7 5.0 5.75 17 Jul 14 (+25bp) 18 Sep 14 (+25bp)
Greece CPI 2% - Aug-14 (0.7) (0.3) (1.2) (7.1) (2.6) (2.4) (1.1) (5.2) 0.25 - -
Turkey CPI 5.0 (2) 9.0 Aug-14 9.3 9.5 0.1 3.5 12.6 14.4 9.7 2.1 8.25 17 Jul 14 (-50bp) On hold
Source: J.P. Morgan Economics, Bloomberg. Note: Current inflation data for countries which outside/above target range is highlighted. MoM and 3 month annualised data is calculated from inflation indices. * under review
# Countries where central banks target is not available. We have given J.P. Morgan Economic estimates.
RBI forecasts inflation not target.
In case of Taiwan, Estimate by DGBAS,CB targets M2 growth Updated as of 10 September 2014
CPI (YoY) CPI (%) Food CPI (YoY) Core CPI (%)
6
Outlook: Market Drivers
Global and developed market drivers
Country Positive Negative
Global Acceleration in DM growth Bond yields grinding higher
US Recovering housing market, fiscal drag easing Higher bond yields. higher mortgage rates, declining NIMs
Europe Improving financing conditions, , Lower fiscal drag, falling EUR/USD, potentially more aggressive ECB Weak economy, deflation risk, weak credit backdrop
UK Strong domestic recovery, unemployment rate going down Political headwinds, potential earlier than expected start of monetary tightening cycle
Japan New PM's pro-growth policy of fiscal boost and inflation targeting, more competitive Yen, QQE Rising energy costs and fiscal sustainability worries
Australia Low sovereign debt, monetary policy flexibility, high dividend yield market attracting local and global flows. Risk to growth from capex/terms of trade downturn, potential currency fragility, high household debt levels, and exposure to growth
risks in China.
Hong Kong Stabilizing property price, slower land sales. DM economic recovery drives HK exports. Closer integration to Pearl River Delta is
positive in the long run.
Vulnerable to the Feds policy normalization. Economic fundamentals remain weak with slowly recovering GDP. Credit risk from
trade financing for banks.
Singapore We expect a modest rebound in 2014 GDP growth expectations with general economic conditions starting to rebound against 2Q13
lows. General economic growth for 2014 is expected to benefit from low-base effects in 2013 (note that street has lowered GDP
forecasts seven times since January 2013).
Ongoing foreign labor tightening is expected to structurally impact corporate earnings and GDP growth, with long-term GDP growth
to moderate from a 10-year historical CAGR of 6.2% to 4.1% on our estimates. We also estimate Singapore to transition up to
172,000 jobs away from Manufacturing into Services while progressing into a productivity-led growth model, which would create
long-term structural drag.
Source: J.P. Morgan.
Emerging Market Drivers
Country Positive Negative
China Stabilizing growth prospects; valuations partly discounting fundamental weakness Less policy flexibility, growth sectors expensive, excessive leverage
Brazil Large and liquid market offering many bottom up options, large infrastructure investment program, labor market still sturdy Large share of commodity stocks in the index, government interventionism, high inflation/domestic monetary tightening, consensus
earnings are too high, risk of sovereign debt downgrade, local currency weakness.
Korea Recovery in domestic demand, benefitting from DM economic growth Weakening of the JPY
Taiwan Global economy is expected to see solid upturn in 2H14. Taiwan's export and industrial sectors should benefit from the solid
demand in DM and China. China-related sectors, Cement, Automation and Industrials, benefits from the improving macro. Easing
concerns over China's asset quality also imposes less downside risks on Taiwan financial sector. Mayoral elections in year-end are
likely to stimulate potential election rally in 2H14. Among technology sector, we forecast stronger growth profile for
LED/Foundry/Display but muted for OSAT/mobile/PC.
Taiwan is vulnerable to the external environment. A series of civil disobedience started from end-March and the upcoming election
at year end add up political risks. Cross-strait development is now delayed due to people's opposition to the content and legislative
procedure of the Trade in Service Agreement.
South Africa Pick-up in commodity prices. Strikers return to work. Locals keep selling bonds to buy stocks. Eskom issues highlight policy paralysis. Growth remains sluggish. Valuations expensive v own history.
India Improved corporate and consumer confidence, Expectations on growth revival, Easy global liquidity helping lower cost of capital Sticky core CPI inflation, slower-than-expected progress on key policy reforms, Weak investment cycle
Russia Rebound from trough valuations. High dividend yield with upside. Exporters should benefit from record-lows on RUB. More sanctions likely. Deteriorating economy and higher rates diminish upside if politics improve
Mexico High correlation to US manufacturing recovery, undervalued FX, underpenetrated credit sector, internal economy picking up from
government spending, reform agenda to boost growth, no inflation concerns.
High valuations, earnings disappointment, no room for disappointment on economic growth, market depth.
Malaysia Government fiscal consolidation gaining traction with subsidy cuts and GST implementation next year. Oil and gas/railway-related
capex fueling domestic growth, CPO price rise on supply tightness/bio fuel blending requirements; recovering exports.
Diminishing current account surplus on imported capital equipment, property demand slowdown on cooling measures, moderating
consumption growth on the back of subsidy cuts, 3-year peak in foreign ownership.
Indonesia Healthy transmission of nominal GDP growth to EPS growth, Policy credibility improved with fuel price increases and recent BI
actions, underweight investor positioning.
Financing persistent CA deficit, decelerating economic growth, Infrastructure bottlenecks, transmission of weaker Rupiah impact
through the economy.
Turkey ECB QE will help finance the high CAD. Keeps pace with firm EM rally. Best revisions in the region. High beta in EM bull mkt. Export markets at risk in MENA (ISIS). Do rates need to rise further given 9+% CPI?
Thailand Flexible monetary condition, healthy corporate balance sheet, strong FDI, better exports Political uncertainties, low public spending, high household debt, negative EPS revision
Qatar & UAE Strong GDP growth, stable FX, high payout ratios, few problems. Saudi opening helps. Strong momentum. Valuations high and EPS growth limited.
Poland Strong pension fund uptake. Bond yields at new lows while 2014-5 GDP still likely to avg 3% More rate cuts will hurt bank NIMs. Tusk move to EU presidency introduces political risks
Greece Growth returning. Banks still look cheap v peers and 2Q earnings indicate no new capital needed. High volatility from bond market and hedge fund-heavy investor base. AQR process.
Czech Republic Eurozone recovery. High payout ratios. Small not very liquid stock market with limited choices
Philippines Rising investment spending, improving consumption driven by steady remittances flow, fast-growing non-electronics exports,
positive CA position, ample domestic liquidity
Sharp increase in interest rates, upward inflation pressures, disruption to government infrastructure spending momentum, sharp
currency weakness
Hungary Eurozone recovery. Current account now in surplus. PM Orbans long and consistent track record of high effective taxation. Low growth hurts.
Source: J.P. Morgan. Updated as of 10 September 2014
7
Profit Outlook: Earnings Forecast Matrices for Countries and Sectors
Weight EPS Growth Weight EPS Growth Weight EPS Growth
EM (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus China (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus India (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus
Median 2014 2015 Median 2014 2015 Median 2014 2015 Median 2014 2015 Median 2014 2015 Median 2014 2015
Total Market 100.0 - - - 11.5 6.9 11.7 Total Market 100.0 12.0 9.6 11.7 10.5 8.7 10.5 Total Market 100 13.8 13.9 17.6 17.3 15.7 16.1
Consumer Discretionary 9.0 - - - 11.3 8.5 14.9 Consumer Discretionary 5.3 18.1 20.8 19.7 20.4 23.7 17.5 Consumer Discretionary 6.7 13.1 13.4 12.4 17.9 18.5 15.7
Consumer Staples 8.0 - - - 11.6 10.9 17.4 Consumer Staples 4.8 9.2 6.8 19.8 6.0 3.5 21.6 Consumer Staples 11.0 15.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 19.9 16.9
Energy 10.6 - - - 6.9 0.1 2.8 Energy 14.5 -3.8 1.3 12.2 2.5 3.9 7.2 Energy 12.6 8.3 5.8 12.2 11.0 9.0 15.3
Financials 27.9 - - - 11.9 7.3 12.3 Financials 35.6 11.4 9.8 10.0 12.0 8.4 8.8 Financials 18.8 11.6 13.4 21.0 17.2 18.7 18.0
Health Care 2.0 - - - 17.7 20.5 20.6 Health Care 1.9 16.1 10.3 15.0 22.0 22.0 19.4 Health Care 8.9 18.5 20.5 23.2 18.5 17.5 20.8
Industrials 6.5 - - - 10.4 35.4 30.1 Industrials 6.2 10.5 17.5 15.3 6.4 5.6 18.2 Industrials 5.7 21.9 9.5 17.4 28.9 23.8 17.3
Information Technology 16.4 - - - 18.9 7.6 9.3 Information Technology 13.2 53.8 53.8 29.7 21.0 47.4 30.1 Information Technology 21.8 16.6 17.4 12.7 12.4 12.9 12.9
Materials 8.4 - - - 8.7 6.5 19.2 Materials 2.8 8.5 23.5 19.8 4.6 12.2 20.2 Materials 7.5 4.7 22.2 31.5 20.0 19.4 16.3
Telecommunication Services 7.7 - - - 4.8 -7.6 11.7 Telecommunication Services 11.9 12.8 -11.2 -1.2 8.4 -6.3 1.8 Telecommunication Services 2.9 46.4 49.2 34.9 21.3 26.9 19.0
Utilities 3.5 - - - 9.0 35.8 6.3 Utilities 3.9 32.1 17.7 15.2 18.8 20.5 12.2 Utilities 4.0 6.7 4.3 7.4 12.0 12.4 10.3
Indonesia (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Korea (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Malaysia (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus
Total Market 100.0 13.0 12.2 11.4 13.8 9.7 12.9 Total Market 100.0 16.3 15.2 17.0 19.6 11.5 14.0 Total Market 100.0 7.6 7.1 8.8 7.4 2.8 9.2
Consumer Discretionary 17.7 35.5 11.5 14.9 23.2 11.3 15.8 Consumer Discretionary 18.4 11.8 12.2 14.0 10.3 9.2 9.9 Consumer Discretionary 9.3 6.4 11.8 8.5 6.4 2.6 13.1
Consumer Staples 12.3 19.1 17.1 11.2 21.2 31.3 15.9 Consumer Staples 6.1 24.1 21.1 12.5 28.3 21.9 16.6 Consumer Staples 9.5 13.7 10.3 5.6 11.0 8.3 8.5
Energy 3.3 -1.9 NA 2.0 4.5 NA 1.4 Energy 1.5 -3.7 -3.9 31.3 -14.4 -15.1 64.6 Energy 4.5 10.4 30.2 17.5 10.2 12.4 11.4
Financials 35.2 6.1 15.7 10.1 9.5 9.6 13.3 Financials 15.4 23.6 39.6 8.7 34.2 50.2 8.8 Financials 34.4 8.1 3.9 8.8 6.6 0.6 8.3
Health Care 2.7 14.1 14.1 19.7 14.1 14.1 19.7 Health Care 0.6 69.5 73.4 33.3 69.5 73.4 33.3 Health Care 2.3 19.3 19.3 28.3 17.5 17.5 24.5
Industrials 3.8 18.9 17.8 18.0 20.6 20.6 8.7 Industrials 11.4 12.5 NM 77.8 17.1 NM 63.8 Industrials 13.4 14.5 8.8 14.5 7.0 2.8 11.5
Information Technology 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA Information Technology 35.0 61.9 -5.4 8.4 35.9 -11.3 4.3 Information Technology 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Materials 6.5 10.2 10.2 13.0 9.1 9.2 10.7 Materials 8.5 6.0 36.9 32.6 6.6 38.2 35.4 Materials 4.3 6.6 11.0 4.6 4.6 7.7 9.2
Telecommunication Services 13.4 6.1 4.1 8.8 5.7 3.8 13.9 Telecommunication Services 1.2 7.9 NM 201.7 -4.8 NM 220.0 Telecommunication Services 10.6 -5.3 -1.1 3.8 1.0 4.0 8.2
Utilities 5.0 4.3 4.3 14.0 -17.5 -17.5 6.1 Utilities 2.0 486.2 NM NM 3960.6 NM NM Utilities 11.7 0.5 8.3 5.2 -6.8 0.9 6.0
Philippines (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Taiwan (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Thailand (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus
Total Market 100.0 5.3 5.6 14.3 8.0 6.5 13.8 Total Market 100.0 13.6 21.0 7.7 15.2 20.3 8.0 Total Market 100.0 9.4 12.5 14.0 10.0 9.5 13.6
Consumer Discretionary 3.8 20.1 20.1 20.5 17.9 17.9 16.5 Consumer Discretionary 4.0 10.8 -40.4 13.3 10.7 -42.5 12.2 Consumer Discretionary 4.3 7.8 8.1 14.6 7.8 -1.9 13.3
Consumer Staples 7.0 18.0 18.0 22.5 17.3 17.3 17.8 Consumer Staples 2.7 14.4 12.2 7.6 14.4 12.2 7.6 Consumer Staples 9.2 18.3 106.8 36.4 17.0 109.5 35.4
Energy 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA Energy 0.6 NA NA 3.8 NA NA 6.6 Energy 19.9 7.7 9.3 14.3 10.9 6.4 8.1
Financials 39.7 10.4 4.5 15.5 5.3 7.5 15.4 Financials 17.9 18.2 14.0 1.3 15.2 11.9 -2.6 Financials 36.4 12.7 10.3 10.7 8.2 7.8 12.2
Health Care 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA Health Care 0.1 -23.8 -23.8 24.9 -23.8 -23.8 24.9 Health Care 3.5 21.5 21.4 19.7 21.5 21.4 19.7
Industrials 25.2 4.4 6.4 16.3 4.4 3.9 15.0 Industrials 2.9 14.2 52.0 12.5 28.6 30.2 59.2 Industrials 5.1 -0.9 -11.4 18.3 -2.4 -11.2 17.8
Information Technology 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA Information Technology 57.7 18.1 34.3 10.2 18.7 35.1 11.2 Information Technology 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Materials 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA Materials 10.0 17.9 13.2 7.4 16.5 12.5 6.2 Materials 10.3 1.3 4.3 12.1 -4.0 -2.1 16.4
Telecommunication Services 18.6 4.9 5.0 6.0 8.0 3.8 4.5 Telecommunication Services 4.2 -2.4 -3.1 -4.9 -2.8 -3.4 -2.2 Telecommunication Services 9.7 -1.0 38.0 20.6 3.4 44.7 27.4
Utilities 5.8 0.2 0.1 15.1 10.4 9.5 23.8 Utilities 0.0 NA NA NA NA NA NA Utilities 1.5 0.4 0.4 3.4 11.5 11.5 1.0
South Africa (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Brazil (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Mexico (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus
Total Market 100.0 - - - 11.7 12.0 12.7 Total Market 100.0 - - - 7.4 3.5 14.6 Total Market 100.0 - - - 5.8 -1.8 19.1
Consumer Discretionary 24.3 - - - 16.8 24.4 22.3 Consumer Discretionary 5.5 - - - 14.2 26.3 30.9 Consumer Discretionary 9.2 - - - 7.5 8.8 16.9
Consumer Staples 4.8 - - - 10.2 10.3 15.2 Consumer Staples 15.1 - - - 15.2 14.3 19.3 Consumer Staples 24.5 - - - 10.0 8.4 13.0
Energy 10.8 - - - 2.6 2.9 1.5 Energy 16.3 - - - 7.4 8.0 26.4 Energy 0.0 - - - NA NA NA
Financials 27.5 - - - 11.9 10.2 11.7 Financials 34.3 - - - 3.5 10.0 13.5 Financials 17.9 - - - -14.9 -19.4 21.0
Health Care 6.2 - - - 18.0 23.0 17.4 Health Care 0.7 - - - 11.2 10.9 45.1 Health Care 1.0 - - - 14.6 14.6 21.8
Industrials 3.3 - - - 6.1 9.0 9.6 Industrials 4.8 - - - 10.2 -6.2 20.2 Industrials 10.5 - - - 1.4 -3.3 12.2
Information Technology 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Information Technology 3.2 - - - 27.0 24.7 15.0 Information Technology 0.0 - - - NA NA NA
Materials 9.2 - - - 9.4 12.6 23.2 Materials 12.5 - - - -13.4 -16.1 6.5 Materials 17.1 - - - 19.1 -21.6 118.8
Telecommunication Services 13.9 - - - 9.2 11.1 8.2 Telecommunication Services 2.8 - - - 0.6 -71.9 42.6 Telecommunication Services 19.7 - - - 12.3 12.3 2.8
Utilities 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Utilities 4.9 - - - 5.8 98.2 -7.6 Utilities 0.0 - - - NA NA NA
Russia (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Poland (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus Turkey (%) J.P. Morgan Consensus
Total Market 100.0 - - - 8.6 -2.9 -0.1 Total Market 100.0 - - - 4.8 -1.3 6.5 Total Market 100.0 - - - 3.7 -1.6 18.0
Consumer Discretionary 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Consumer Discretionary 6.1 - - - -8.1 -13.0 43.3 Consumer Discretionary 4.6 - - - 15.7 13.6 17.6
Consumer Staples 7.7 - - - 10.4 10.4 22.7 Consumer Staples 1.3 - - - 2.5 2.5 16.6 Consumer Staples 15.2 - - - 5.0 -47.1 27.5
Energy 56.3 - - - -2.6 -4.4 -7.4 Energy 10.5 - - - 72.1 61.8 5.0 Energy 4.4 - - - 1.0 1.0 14.5
Financials 16.1 - - - -5.8 -9.3 25.5 Financials 53.4 - - - 6.9 2.4 10.7 Financials 48.8 - - - -1.7 -0.5 19.2
Health Care 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Health Care 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Health Care 0.0 - - - NA NA NA
Industrials 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Industrials 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Industrials 12.4 - - - 13.2 8.8 22.0
Information Technology 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Information Technology 0.0 - - - NA NA NA Information Technology 0.0 - - - NA NA NA
Materials 9.9 - - - 155.6 120.2 23.7 Materials 11.5 - - - -22.1 -34.9 17.6 Materials 4.7 - - - 16.1 29.5 0.4
Telecommunication Services 8.9 - - - -7.9 -16.0 5.9 Telecommunication Services 3.2 - - - 42.3 42.3 -11.5 Telecommunication Services 9.9 - - - 34.6 14.4 11.0
Utilities 1.1 - - - 62.5 NA -5.8 Utilities 14.0 - - - -7.2 -6.4 -13.3 Utilities 0.0 - - - NA NA NA
Source: I/B/E/S, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Updated as of 10 September 2014
Note: Average earnings growth calculated based on earnings aggregate of MSCI constituents. Consensus numbers are used for stocks not covered by JPMorgan under J.P. Morgan forecasts calculation. Median numbers are for the year 2014.
11 September 2014
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
Monitoring the Trend in Country EPS Forecasts (2014 and 2015)

11 September 2014
World EM Asia EM Europe
Korea
Emerging Markets (EM)
China EM Latin America
Brazil
90
95
100
105
110
115
Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Sep-14
2015
2014
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2
2014
2015
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2014
2
2015
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2014
2015
2
105
110
115
2014
2015
95
100
105
110
2015
100
110
120
2015
90
100
110
2015
8
Source: I/B/E/S Updated as of 3 September 2014
Notes: The dashboard aims to show changes in earnings expectations. All year ends are for December. EPS figures are normalized, starting at 100 on base date Feb 2013 for ease of comparison.
These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items.
Taiwan South Africa India Russia
22 2 2 22 2 20
85
90
95
100
105
110
2
2014
2015
95
100
105
110
115
120
2014
2015
90
95
100
105
2014
80
85
90
95
2014
70
80
90
100
2014
70
80
90
2014
2015
90
95
100
105
110
2015
2014
85
95
105
115
125
135
2014
2015
8
9
Emerging Markets Equity Strategy
Monitoring the Trend in Country EPS Forecasts (2014 and 2015)

Updated as of 3 September 2014
Source: I/B/E/S
These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items. Countries earnings revisions are in local currencies term whereas APxJ regions earnings revisions is in US $ terms
11 September 2014
Mexico Malaysia
Poland
Czech. Republic

Turkey
Indonesia
C C
Thailand

Philippines
85
90
95
100
105
110
2014
2
2015
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2014
2015
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2014
2015
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2015
2014
75
80
85
90
95
100
2015
2014
95
100
105
110
115
2014
2015
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2
2015
2014
22
Hungary
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2014
2
2015
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
2
2014
2015
Chile
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2014
2
2015
Greece
5
25
45
65
85
105
125
145
2014
2
2015
10
Monitoring the Trend in Sector EPS Forecasts (2014 and 2015)

Source: I/B/E/S Updated as of 3 September 2014
These numbers are directly from IBES aggregate and may differ from those in the growth expectations pages where adjustments are made for exceptional items. Sector earnings revisions are in US$
11 September 2014
Financials
Energy
Information Technology Industrials
Telecom Materials Utilities
Consumer Staples Consumer Discretionary
Health Care
Emerging Markets
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Feb 13 Jul 13 Dec 13 May 14 Sep 14
2014
2015
85
90
95
100
105
2014
2015
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2015
2014
60
70
80
90
100
110
2015
2014
80
90
100
110
120
2014
2015
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2014

2015
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2015
2014
75
85
95
105
115
2015
2014
70
80
90
100
110
2014
2015
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2015
2014
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
2014
2015
11
Value: PE Matrices for Countries and Sectors
12-month forward PE
U
S
A
*
E
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L
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A
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*
K
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T
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Consumer Discretionary 16.9 12.3 17.9 20.8 10.2 7.6 15.6 11.2 14.6 15.7 15.7 21.8 32.9
Consumer Staples 16.4 20.9 19.5 20.1 22.2 20.5 21.2 22.5 32.9 21.0 21.4 23.0 27.1
Energy 14.4 7.4 4.8 10.3 10.4 10.4 25.3 10.3 11.6 16.7 15.0 9.5 NA
Financials 13.3 9.4 10.5 12.0 8.4 NA 11.8 5.9 16.3 12.6 11.8 11.1 19.8
Health Care 15.9 21.5 19.9 19.1 22.2 16.2 37.6 21.7 26.2 44.3 31.8 35.7 NA
Industrials 15.2 15.4 13.1 21.5 14.6 16.1 24.4 10.8 21.0 15.2 14.5 28.8 17.2
Information Technology 14.7 12.2 NA 18.3 12.1 8.1 12.8 24.6 18.2 NA NA NA NA
Materials 16.5 12.6 11.9 11.9 13.3 14.1 18.9 8.7 11.8 15.0 14.9 11.2 NA
Telecommunication Services 14.0 15.3 12.9 15.5 16.6 24.1 18.6 16.3 19.5 22.9 18.2 23.6 19.4
Utilities 15.6 11.9 10.9 11.3 12.5 NA NA 13.2 12.0 14.2 12.6 16.2 14.6
Market Aggregate 16.0 11.0 9.1 13.1 11.4 9.9 13.7 9.3 16.6 15.3 14.6 13.1 19.2
Sector Neutral** 14.7 11.0 10.7 14.3 11.3 10.6 15.4 10.0 16.2 14.8 14.0 13.7 15.3
12-month forward PE
E
M
F

E
M
E
A
*
R
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s
i
a
*
S
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A
f
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*
P
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d
*
T
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*
G
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*
U
A
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*
Q
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*
E
M
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L
A
T
A
M
*
B
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a
z
i
l
*
M
e
x
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c
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*
C
h
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*
Consumer Discretionary 17.9 NA 18.2 25.1 11.7 15.8 NM NA 20.8 17.5 28.0 19.9
Consumer Staples 19.5 20.2 16.6 19.9 24.9 NA NA NA 20.1 18.5 22.6 17.3
Energy 4.8 4.0 10.1 11.7 9.7 NA NA NA 10.3 10.0 NA 17.3
Financials 10.5 4.7 12.1 14.7 8.6 NA 16.8 15.5 12.0 11.0 16.1 12.1
Health Care 19.9 NA 20.6 NA NA NA NA NA 19.1 21.4 16.4 NA
Industrials 13.1 NA 13.1 NA 10.0 NA 25.8 13.9 21.5 22.7 21.7 20.3
Information Technology NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 18.3 18.3 NA NA
Materials 11.9 9.7 13.3 13.6 10.3 30.1 NA NA 11.9 7.6 36.0 20.1
Telecommunication Services 12.9 8.7 15.4 39.0 10.5 15.9 NA 20.4 15.5 21.1 14.6 12.6
Utilities 10.9 7.1 NA 11.3 NA 10.6 NA 13.7 11.3 9.2 NA 15.7
Market Aggregate 9.1 4.7 13.8 13.9 10.0 - 17.3 15.7 13.1 11.0 19.6 15.7
Sector Neutral** 10.7 7.2 13.0 15.2 10.7 12.0 13.6 13.2 14.3 13.0 15.0 14.6
Source: IBES, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Note: PEs are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using JPM estimates for covered stocks and IBES estimates for the rest.
* Market forecast numbers are derived from bottom-up calculations of each individual MSCI constituents using I/B/E/S estimates. IBES Estimates are not available for Morocco, Jordan, Peru and Colombia. Updated as of 10 September 2014
**Sector neutral PE are calculated by using sector weights of MSCI EM and sector PE of respective markets (MSCI EM sector PE used where country sector does not exist)
11 September 2014
12
Value: Distribution Tables for PE, PBR, DY and RoE

2014E: Price to Earnings Ratio (x) 2014E: Price to Book Value Ratio (x)
Weighted Quartiles Weighted Quartiles
Average Min Lower Median Higher Max Average Min Lower Median Higher Max
Global* 15.7 2.8 12.7 16.1 21.0 518.9 Global* 1.9 0.1 1.2 1.9 3.2 50.5
USA* 17.3 7.1 14.3 17.1 21.8 518.9 USA* 2.4 0.3 1.6 2.7 4.3 50.5
Europe* 15.3 6.0 12.9 16.0 19.9 99.7 Europe* 1.7 0.1 1.2 2.0 3.2 29.8
Japan* 15.6 5.5 12.4 15.7 21.1 80.9 Japan* 1.2 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.7 11.6
Emerging Markets* 11.9 2.8 11.4 15.5 22.2 398.2 Emerging Markets* 1.5 0.2 1.1 1.8 3.2 48.6
China 10.1 3.9 8.8 12.3 18.4 86.5 China 1.5 0.3 1.0 1.3 2.4 11.4
Brazil* 12.1 4.4 11.1 16.8 22.0 48.9 Brazil* 1.5 0.2 1.1 1.7 4.1 16.3
Korea 11.0 6.4 11.6 15.6 24.0 143.9 Korea 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 1.7 11.1
Taiwan 14.4 5.0 13.1 15.6 21.0 171.7 Taiwan 1.9 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.6 10.1
South Africa* 14.9 7.8 11.3 14.4 17.7 92.2 South Africa* 2.5 0.4 1.6 2.5 4.2 17.7
India 18.7 4.5 13.8 18.6 29.4 110.0 India 2.9 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.3 43.1
Russia* 4.7 2.8 4.4 6.7 11.0 23.2 Russia* 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.7 6.2
Mexico* 22.4 9.9 19.1 24.2 27.0 48.1 Mexico* 2.8 1.3 2.4 3.1 3.6 15.7
Malaysia 16.2 9.5 12.9 17.1 22.4 52.3 Malaysia 2.1 0.7 1.5 2.0 2.7 40.2
Greece - 14.2 14.6 17.6 22.3 48.9 Greece 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.8 3.1
UAE 18.2 12.3 13.9 15.5 27.0 40.0 UAE 2.1 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.8 3.5
Qatar 17.1 11.5 13.4 14.5 19.8 398.2 Qatar 2.6 1.4 1.7 2.5 3.2 3.9
Chile* 18.4 11.6 13.6 18.7 22.8 39.0 Chile* 1.6 0.7 1.4 1.8 2.6 3.3
Indonesia 15.8 8.3 13.9 16.2 24.0 60.2 Indonesia 3.3 1.1 2.4 3.5 4.5 48.6
Turkey* 11.3 7.6 10.2 11.0 12.3 31.6 Turkey* 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.5 2.9 12.1
Thailand 14.4 9.2 11.6 16.9 31.9 67.3 Thailand 2.1 0.9 1.4 2.2 5.0 20.1
Poland* 14.7 8.8 11.2 15.9 17.9 35.8 Poland* 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.1 10.2
Czech Republic* 13.4 11.5 13.3 15.0 17.0 19.0 Czech Republic* 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9
Egypt* 23.5 9.8 11.1 12.4 19.3 26.3 Egypt* 1.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.0 3.0
Philippines 21.1 14.1 16.1 20.6 26.5 37.3 Philippines 3.0 1.3 2.1 2.9 4.0 8.4
Hungary* 12.1 10.7 11.0 11.2 14.5 17.8 Hungary* 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.3
2014E: Dividend Yield (%) 2014E: Return on Equity (%)
Weighted Quartiles Weighted Quartiles
Average Min Lower Median Higher Max Average Min Lower Median Higher Max
Global* 2.6 0.0 1.2 2.2 3.6 11.7 Global* 12.4 -10.9 7.9 12.3 18.5 354.0
USA* 2.1 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.8 11.5 USA* 14.4 0.6 9.6 15.4 21.9 261.7
Europe* 3.6 0.0 2.1 3.1 4.3 11.5 Europe* 11.2 1.5 8.2 12.7 18.3 151.4
Japan* 2.1 0.0 1.2 1.7 2.4 4.3 Japan* 7.8 1.3 6.2 8.4 10.8 47.2
Emerging Markets* 2.8 0.0 1.2 2.3 3.7 11.7 Emerging Markets* 12.7 -10.9 8.1 12.6 18.5 354.0
China 3.2 0.0 1.3 2.5 3.9 9.2 China 15.2 2.4 8.9 12.7 17.1 34.2
Brazil* 4.0 0.0 1.6 3.3 4.9 11.7 Brazil* 12.3 -4.4 7.6 13.0 22.4 82.3
Korea 1.3 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.7 6.9 Korea 10.1 0.8 4.8 7.6 11.9 27.6
Taiwan 2.9 0.0 2.1 3.4 4.5 8.6 Taiwan 13.5 0.6 7.3 10.6 16.9 42.5
South Africa* 3.2 0.0 2.2 3.6 4.5 10.1 South Africa* 17.4 0.4 12.9 18.3 23.4 101.0
India 1.5 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.9 5.0 India 16.5 1.4 10.7 15.7 21.7 105.8
Russia* 5.3 0.9 3.1 4.5 5.8 8.3 Russia* 11.7 5.3 10.3 12.8 21.8 38.3
Mexico* 1.4 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.9 4.1 Mexico* 12.5 -4.6 9.3 12.6 15.6 65.2
Malaysia 3.2 0.6 2.1 2.7 3.7 7.5 Malaysia 13.2 3.3 9.4 12.6 14.5 179.3
Greece 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.1 3.5 Greece - -10.9 -1.3 3.8 12.7 14.6
UAE 2.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.6 4.7 UAE 11.5 7.0 8.6 11.7 16.6 20.0
Qatar 3.7 2.0 2.9 3.5 3.9 6.7 Qatar 15.2 0.8 11.8 14.3 18.2 24.3
Chile* 2.6 0.0 1.7 3.0 3.8 6.0 Chile* 8.9 2.6 7.9 10.6 13.2 21.7
Indonesia 2.5 0.0 1.4 2.0 2.8 6.6 Indonesia 22.2 5.8 16.4 21.8 24.5 110.7
Turkey* 3.0 0.7 1.5 2.1 4.4 10.1 Turkey* 13.8 4.7 11.6 14.7 19.6 38.3
Thailand 3.0 0.0 1.4 2.8 3.8 6.2 Thailand 15.6 1.4 11.5 15.2 19.3 116.3
Poland* 3.9 0.0 1.5 2.8 4.6 7.1 Poland* 9.5 -6.7 5.7 10.6 12.4 30.8
Czech Republic* 5.4 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.8 Czech Republic* 11.4 9.2 10.1 11.0 11.8 12.6
Egypt* 2.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 4.1 8.2 Egypt* 9.0 3.2 6.2 9.2 16.9 24.6
Philippines 2.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 1.9 5.0 Philippines 15.0 7.3 11.3 14.3 18.7 25.0
Hungary* 3.2 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.8 4.1 Hungary* 7.3 6.2 6.8 7.4 7.4 7.4
Source: Datastream, IBES, MSCI, J.P. Morgan estimates. Updated as of 10 September 2014
Note: Weighted average numbers based on aggregate of MSCI constituents. Consensus numbers are used for stocks not covered by J.P. Morgan. * only consensus numbers are used
11 September 2014
13
Value: Demand Classification: MSCI Emerging Markets Index Composition by Countries
MSCI Emerging Markets
Free Index
D
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G
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C
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P
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China 15.7 0.4 0.4 2.9 19.4
India 3.5 1.5 0.1 1.8 6.8
Indonesia 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6
Korea 6.0 2.7 4.6 1.6 14.9
Malaysia 2.9 0.1 0.1 0.6 3.8
Philippines 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2
Taiwan 4.1 3.4 3.4 1.1 11.9
Thailand 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3
Asia
37.6 8.1 8.6 8.5 62.9
Czech Republic 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Egypt
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
Hungary
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
Greece
0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Poland
1.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6
Russia
1.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 4.8
South Africa
5.8 0.0 0.0 1.5 7.4
Turkey
1.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6
UAE
0.5 0.1 0.6
Qatar 0.5 0.1 0.6
EMEA
12.5 0.0 0.1 5.4 17.9
Brazil
7.9 0.1 0.1 3.0 11.1
Chile
1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
Colombia
0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.0
Mexico
4.4 0.4 0.1 0.4 5.3
Peru
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4
LatAm
14.6 0.6 0.2 3.9 19.2
Total
64.7 8.7 8.9 17.7 100.0
Source: Datastream, MSCI. J.P. Morgan. MSCI emerging markets companies have been classified in five categories. Updated as of 10 September 2014
Of the five categories, Global Consumer/Capex (Tech-Hardware) weighting equally divided between Global consumer and Global Capex.
11 September 2014
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan 90 Oct 96 Jul 03 Apr 10

Relative to EM (rhs)
Absolute (lhs)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
120
240
360
480
600
720
840
960
Jan-90 Oct-96 Jul-03 Apr-10

Absolute (lhs)
10
25
40
55
70
85
100
115
-40
30
100
170
240
310
380
450

Absolute (lhs)
EM Domestic Demand Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index
EM Global Consumer Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index
EM Global Price Taker Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index
-60
20
100
180
260
340
420
500
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400

Absolute (lhs)
EM Global Capex Sector Absolute and relative (vs EMF) Index
14
Value: Equities relative to Bonds
Country 1-month 3-month 6-month 12-month 36-month
36-month
annualised
Brazil 0.3 3.4 16.2 -4.7 20.5 6.4
Chile 2.3 -1.0 5.8 -3.0 -7.4 -2.5
China 2.2 9.9 14.1 7.2 25.2 7.8
Colombia 0.8 1.8 7.9 -5.8 17.5 5.5
Czech 7.3 7.0 12.8 21.3 12.5 4.0
Hungary 9.7 -5.1 5.4 -22.1 -9.3 -3.2
India 5.5 4.5 15.9 22.6 53.9 15.5
Indonesia 0.4 2.7 8.4 10.3 28.2 8.6
Malaysia 1.5 -1.3 0.5 3.3 31.5 9.6
Mexico 2.8 4.6 12.9 1.0 37.8 11.3
Peru -0.4 -0.5 3.8 2.7 -14.2 -5.0
Poland 8.0 0.1 2.7 3.3 29.6 9.0
Russia 7.0 2.3 12.2 0.8 4.1 1.3
South Africa -0.6 -1.4 3.8 13.7 69.2 19.2
Thailand 4.2 7.6 17.2 5.2 41.5 12.3
Turkey -0.5 -5.0 19.7 -0.1 45.6 13.3
Taiwan 4.1 5.4 13.0 19.9 35.3 10.6
Philippines 5.6 5.4 3.5 17.7 75.9 20.7
Korea -0.7 -4.2 -2.5 -5.4 14.2 4.5
Romania 0.4 -0.9 11.1 17.5 NA NA
Country Generic 10 years
Bond Maturity
(years)
Bond Yield To
Maturity
Earnings Yield Dividend Yield
DDM Implied
Growth
Brazil 11.5 8.7 9.1 9.1 4.1 12.3
Chile 4.8 4.4 3.9 6.4 2.7 6.9
China 4.3 6.2 4.2 10.7 3.4 6.3
Colombia 7.0 6.7 5.8 5.0 2.7 8.3
Czech 1.2 6.7 1.1 7.1 5.2 -1.5
Hungary 4.6 5.0 3.7 10.0 3.7 4.8
India 8.5 11.4 8.7 6.0 1.6 11.7
Indonesia 8.2 11.8 8.3 6.8 2.6 11.1
Malaysia 4.0 6.1 3.9 6.6 3.3 6.1
Mexico 5.9 9.6 5.8 5.1 1.5 8.6
Peru 5.2 11.5 5.5 4.3 1.1 8.1
Poland 3.0 4.3 2.6 7.2 4.1 2.6
Russia 9.6 5.8 9.3 21.3 6.0 12.9
South Africa 8.2 12.5 8.1 7.2 3.5 10.4
Thailand 3.7 6.2 3.3 7.6 3.2 5.9
Turkey 9.0 5.1 8.9 10.0 3.2 10.7
Taiwan 1.6 7.2 1.6 7.3 3.2 1.9
Philippines 4.4 13.2 4.9 5.2 2.3 6.9
Korea 3.1 8.0 3.0 10.1 1.3 6.2
Romania 4.2 3.9 3.5 NA NA NA
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, DataStream, MSCI, IBES Note: GBI-EM Bond Maturity and Yield to Maturity are used for each country. Updated as of 10 September 2014
11 September 2014
Relative outperformance of equities versus bonds by country (%)
J.P. Morgan's GBI - EM bond indices track local currency
government bonds issued by emerging economies.
The indices are easily replicable and represent the local
bond portfolio that can be accessed by an international
investor.
For more information on these indices please visit
www.morganmarkets.com or contact Gloria Kim at
gloria.m.kim@jpmorgan.com
The table shows the difference between the MSCI equity
benchmark returns in local currency and the GBI - EM
benchmark returns for each country.
Positive numbers indicate outperformance by equities.
Relative value of equities versus bonds by country
For 'DDM Implied Growth', we use a dividend discount
model based on expected payout ratios for 2008 (except
Colombia and Peru where we use current trailing payout
ratio)
Perpetual Implied Growth Rates are calculated based on
the Gordon Growth Model:
G= R - D/V
G= Implied Growth Rate
R= Required Growth Rate (Risk free rate + Equity Risk
Premium)
D= Index Dividend
V= Index Value
Note: Equity risk premium of 4%. Risk free rates are 10-
year benchmark or nearest equivalent.
15
Economic Forecasts: Changes in Real GDP Forecasts
Real GDP Growth (% Y/Y) Change in Forecasts Past 3 months (%) Economic Momentum Inflation
2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 3Q14E 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 2014E 2015E
US 2.1 3.0 2.1 3.0 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 1.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.5 1.9
Euro 0.8 1.8 1.0 1.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 1.0 na na na 1.3 0.6
Japan 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 2.0 2.5 1.1 2.2 0.4 2.9
China 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.6 7.4 7.1 7.2 2.6 2.2
Brazil 0.2 1.5 0.8 1.6 -1.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.4 0.1 2.6 1.1 na 6.2 6.3
S Korea 3.6 4.0 3.6 3.8 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 1.3 1.5
Taiwan 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.6 0.3 -0.1 0.3 0.1 na 4.2 3.8 3.6 0.8 1.4
South Africa 1.4 3.0 1.7 2.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 2.3 3.3 2.9 3.3 5.8 6.1
India 5.3 6.5 4.7 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.7 5.9 7.5 10.1 8.5
Russia 0.5 1.0 0.3 1.2 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.8 6.8 7.2
Mexico 2.7 3.8 2.6 3.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0 3.9 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.8 4.1
Malaysia 5.8 4.7 5.7 5.3 0.3 -0.4 0.5 0.3 4.0 5.5 5.0 4.0 2.1 2.7
Chile 1.9 3.1 2.9 3.8 -1.0 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5 0.4 4.5 2.9 3.9 1.8 4.0
Indonesia 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.6 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 5.0 4.5 5.2 5.5 7.0 5.7
Turkey 3.0 4.0 3.3 3.7 1.1 0.0 1.0 0.2 1.2 0.8 4.1 6.1 7.5 9.0
Thailand 1.1 4.2 1.5 4.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 na 4.0 4.2 4.2 2.2 2.6
Poland 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 2.0 2.8 3.5 3.5 0.9 0.2
Czech Republic 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.1 3.0 4.3 2.4 1.4 0.9
Peru 3.3 5.5 4.5 5.5 -1.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 6.5 9.5 5.5 5.0 2.8 3.0
Colombia 5.0 4.5 5.0 4.8 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.5 2.0 2.8
Philippines 6.0 6.4 6.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 5.7 5.7 6.6 6.6 2.9 4.2
Hungary 3.3 2.6 2.9 2.5 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 2.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 1.7 0.1
Qatar 1.8 2.4 5.9 6.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.2 - - - - 3.8 4.4
UAE 2.0 2.7 4.1 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 - - - - 2.3 2.6
Greece - - 0.3 1.7 - - 0.1 0.1 - - - - - -
Updated as of 10 September 2014
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg
Note: Consensus estimates for Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan and Israel sourced from WES and Morocco from EIU
11 September 2014
J.P. Morgan Consensus J.P. Morgan Consensus GDP SAAR (% Y/Y)
2014E GDP Growth in EM: J.P. Morgan and Consensus Forecasts Consensus Forecasts for 2014E GDP growth in EM and DM
4.0
4.3
4.6
4.9
5.2
5.5
5.8
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
5.0
5.2
5.4
5.6
5.8
Jan-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14

DM consensus growth forecast (RHS)
EM consensus growth forecast (LHS)
Consensus EM growth forecast
J.P. Morgan EM growth forecast
16
11 September 2014
Economic Forecasts: Policy Rate Trends and Forecasts
Policy Rate
Country Official interest rate 3Q'13 4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 Current 3Q'14F 4Q'14F 1Q'15F 2Q'15F Last Change Next Change
Developed Markets
United States Federal funds rate 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 16 Dec 08 (-87.5bp) 3Q 15 (+25bp)
Euro Area Refi Rate 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 4 Sep 14 (-10bp) 3Q 18 (+20bp)
Japan Overnight Call Rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 5 Oct 10 (-5bp) On hold
Latin America
Brazil SELIC overnight rate 9.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 11.00 2 Apr 14 (+25bp) On hold
Mexico Repo rate 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 6 Jun 14 (-50bp) 4Q 15 (+25bp)
Chile Discount rate 5.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.25 3.00 3.00 2.75 14 Aug 14 (-25bp) 11 Sep 14 (-25bp)
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Czech Republic 2-week repo rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 1 Nov 12 (-20bp) On hold
Hungary 2-week deposit rate 3.60 3.00 2.50 2.30 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 2.10 22 Jul 14 (-20bp) 4Q 15 (+20bp)
Poland 7-day intervention rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 3 Jul 13 (-25bp) 4Q 14 (-50bp)
Russia Rep Rate 5.50 5.50 7.00 7.50 8.00 8.00 8.00 7.75 7.50 25 Jul 14 (+50bp) 1Q 15 (-25bp)
South Africa Repo rate 5.00 5.00 5.75 5.50 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50 17 Jul 14 (+25bp) 18 Sep 14 (+25bp)
Turkey Intbnk O/N 6.50 7.75 10.00 8.75 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 17 Jul 14 (-50bp) On hold
EM Asia 5.51 5.55 5.61 5.59 5.58 5.59 5.63 5.64 5.64
China 1-year working capital 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 7 Jul 12 (-31bp) On hold
Korea Overnight call rate 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 14 Aug 14 (-25bp) On hold
Indonesia BI rate 7.25 7.50 7.75 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 12 Nov 13 (+25bp) On hold
India Repo rate 7.50 7.75 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.25 8.25 8.25 28 Jan 14 (+25bp) 4Q 14 (+25bp)
Malaysia Overnight policy rate 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 10 Jul 14 (+25bp) 18 Sep 14 (+25bp)
Philippines Reverse repo rate 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 11 Sep 14 (+25bp) -
Thailand 1-day repo rate 2.50 2.25 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 12 Mar 14 (-25bp) 1Q 15 (+25bp)
Taiwan Official discount rate 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 2.00 2.00 30 Jun 11 (+12.5bp) 1Q 15 (+12.5bp)
Source: J.P. Morgan Economics, Bloomberg. Bold figures on next column indicate tightening. Updated as of 10 September 2014
Change in policy rates Emerging Markets Policy rates
-550 -450 -350 -250 -150 -50 50 150
India
Malaysia
China
Japan
Taiwan
Chile
Thailand
Indonesia
Korea
Poland
Czech
S Africa
EU
Philippines
Brazil
USA
Mexico
Hungary
Change from 05 - 07 avg Forecast Change for now to 4Q 14
-4
0
4
8
12
16
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Nominal Policy Rates
Real Rates
17
Economic Forecasts: Currency Movements and Forecasts
Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. Updated as of 10 September 2014
11 September 2014
Euro (EUR) Japansese Yen (JPY)
1.12
1.32
1.52
1.72
Jan 05 Aug 07 Apr 10 Nov 12 Jun 15

J.P. Morgan
Consensus
J.P. Morgan forecast:
end Sep 14: 1.34
end Dec 14: 1.30
end Mar 15: 1.28
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan 05 Aug 07 Mar 10 Nov 12 Jun 15

J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 102
end Dec 14: 106
end Mar 15: 107

South Korean Won (KRW)
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Consensus

J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 1000
end Dec 14: 1000
end Mar 15: 995

Taiwan Dollar (TWD)
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Consensus
J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 30.70
end Dec 14: 30.80
end Mar 15: 30.80

1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Consensus
J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 2.30
end Dec 14: 2.35
end Mar 15: 2.45

Brazilian Real (BRL) Russian Ruble (RUB)
5.8
6.2
6.6
7.0
7.4
7.8
8.2
8.6

Consensus
J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 6.20
end Dec 14: 6.15
end Mar 15: 6.15

South African Rand (ZAR)
38.0
42.0
46.0
50.0
54.0
58.0
62.0
66.0
Consensus
J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 60.00
end Dec 14: 60.00
end Mar 15: 60.50

Mexican Peso (MXN)
20
24
28
32
36
40

J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 36.43
end Dec 14: 36.78
end Mar 15: 36.86

Indian Rupee (INR)
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
J.P. Morgan

Consensus
end Sep 14: 3.17
end Dec 14: 3.20
end Mar 15: 3.23

Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Polish Zloty (PLN)
Thai Baht (THB)

( )

C (C )

( )
S ( )

( )
Chinese Yuan Renminbi (CNY)
9.5
10.1
10.7
11.3
11.9
12.5
13.1
13.7
14.3
14.9
15.5

J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 13.00
end Dec 14: 12.90
end Mar 15: 13.10

5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0

Consensus
J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 11.00
end Dec 14: 10.75
end Mar 15: 11.00

26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
Consensus

J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 32.50
end Dec 14: 33.00
end Mar 15: 33.00

1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 3.10
end Dec 14: 3.19
end Mar 15: 3.20

Turkish Lira (TRY)
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
Consensus
J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 2.20
end Dec 14: 2.20
end Mar 15: 2.15

18
Economic Forecasts: Currency Movements and Forecasts

Source: Datastream, J.P. Morgan estimates, Bloomberg. The expected % Gain vs USD for ARS is -28% Updated as of 10 September 2014
11 September 2014
Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Hungarian Forint (HUF)
130
143
156
169
182
195
208
221
234
247
260
J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 235
end Dec 14: 238
end Mar 15: 238

13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Consensus

J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 20.67
end Dec 14: 21.15
end Mar 15: 21.33

Czech Koruna (CZK) Peruvian Nuevo Sol (PEN)
Philippine Peso (PHP) Colombian Peso(COP)
2.4
2.7
2.9
3.2
3.4
3.7
J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 2.81
end Dec 14: 2.83
end Mar 15: 2.84

Expected % Gain vs USD till Dec 2014 (J.P. Morgan)
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
C
O
P

H
U
F

K
R
W

IL
S

P
L
N

Z
A
R

IN
R

C
Z
K

R
U
B

J
P
Y

M
Y
R

P
H
P

T
R
L

C
N
Y

E
U
R

ID
R

T
H
B

B
R
L

T
W
D

M
X
N

A
R
S

1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2,300
2,500
2,700
J.P. Morgan

Consensus
end Sep 14: 1850
end Dec 14: 1875
end Mar 15: 1900

7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
11,500
12,500
Consensus

J.P. Morgan
end Sep 14: 11900
end Dec 14: 11900
end Mar 15: 12000

36
40
44
48
52
56
60
J.P. Morgan
Consensus
end Sep 14: 43.50
end Dec 14: 44.00
end Mar 15: 44.25

11 September 2014
Economic Forecasts: Credit Risk
External (2013E) Fiscal Position Sovereign Ratings (Long Term Foreign Debt)
Foreign
Reserves 2013 2014F** 2014E 2014E 2013 2014F** 2013 2014F** Moody's S & P
(US$bil) %GDP %GDP (US$bil) %GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP % GDP Rating Action Date Rating Action Date
China 3993 2.1 1.8 809 8 -2.1 -2.1 23 21 Aa3 O/L changed to stable, Affirmed Apr-16-13 AA- Affirmed, O/L stable Nov-29-13
Brazil 378 -3.6 -3.6 492 22 -3.3 -3.7 68 69 Baa2 O/L changed to stable, Affirmed Oct-02-13 BBB- Downgrade, O/L stable Mar-24-14
Korea 368 6.1 5.8 418 29 0.9 1.0 36 35 Aa3 Upgrade, O/L changed to stable Aug-27-12 A+ Affirmed, O/L stable Sep-24-13
Taiwan 423 11.3 11.0 146 28 -1.8 -2.0 41 41 Aa3 Affirmed, O/L stable Oct-09-13 AA- Affirmed, O/L stable May-26-14
South Africa 42 -5.8 -5.1 148 41 -4.0 -4.0 43 45 Baa1 (-) Downgrade, O/L (-) Nov-25-13 BBB (-) Affirmed, O/L (-) Dec-20-13
India 291 -1.7 -2.3 476 36 -4.6 -4.1 67 68 Baa3 Affirmed, O/L stable Nov-26-12 BBB- (-) Affirmed, O/L (-) Nov-08-13
Russia 466 1.6 3.4 720 36 -0.3 0.6 14 15 Baa1 - Affirmed, O/L stable May-16-12 BBB- (-) Downgrade, O/L (-) Apr-25-14
Mexico 191 -1.8 -2.3 226 17 -2.3 -3.5 44 46 A3 Upgrade, O/L stable Feb-05-14 BBB+ Upgrade, O/L stable Dec-19-13
Malaysia 127 3.8 4.7 60 18 -4.0 -3.5 57 57 A3 Affirmed, O/L stable Jun-07-12 A- Affirmed, O/L stable Nov-20-13
Chile 40 -3.8 -1.7 104 41 -0.7 -2.0 13 13 Aa3 Affirmed, O/L stable Oct-29-13 AA- Affirmed, O/L stable Dec-16-13
Indonesia 111 -3.6 -3.0 363 31 -2.4 -2.5 26 27 Baa3 Affirmed, O/L stable Jul-16-12 BB+ O/L changed to stable, Affirmed May-02-13
Poland 76 -1.8 -2.1 363 66 -4.3 -3.5 58 50 A2 Affirmed, O/L stable Oct-04-11 A- Affirmed, O/L stable Feb-07-14
Turkey 113 -7.9 -5.8 376 45 -1.2 -2.1 36 35 Baa3 (-) Downgrade, O/L (-) Apr-04-14 BB+ (-) Affirmed, O/L (-) May-23-14
Thailand 159 -0.7 1.5 86 23 -3.4 -2.8 47 48 Baa1 Affirmed, O/L stable Jun-02-14 BBB+ Affirmed, O/L stable May-22-14
Czech Republic 57 -1.1 0.2 105 54 -2.9 -2.9 48 49 A1 Affirmed, O/L stable Jul-19-13 AA- Affirmed, O/L stable Jan-24-14
Peru 65 -4.5 -5.0 52 25 0.8 -0.2 19 17 Baa2 (+) Upgrade, O/L (+) Aug-16-12 BBB+ Upgrade, O/L stable Aug-19-13
Egypt* 17 na na na na na na na na Caa1 (-) Affirmed, O/L (-) Jul-25-13 B- Affirmed, O/L stable May-16-14
Colombia 1 -3.3 -3.8 73 18 -1.2 -1.2 32 32 Baa3 (+) O/L changed to (+), Affirmed Jul-08-13 BBB Affirmed, O/L stable Apr-29-14
Philippines 81 4.5 2.7 61 22 -1.4 -2.0 41 39 Baa3 (+) Upgrade, O/L changed to (+) Oct-03-13 BBB Upgrade, O/L stable May-08-14
Hungary 32 3.7 2.5 152 111 -2.2 -3.0 80 80 Ba1 (-) Affirmed, O/L stable Aug-15-13 BB O/L changed to stable, Affirmed Mar-28-14
Greece 0.8 na na na na na na na na - - - - - -
Emerging Asia 5553 2.2 2.1 2275 15 -2.0 -1.5 27 27 - - - - - -
Emerging Europe 803 -0.9 0.3 1903 48 -2.0 -1.7 29 28 - - - - - -
Latin America 724 -2.4 -2.6 1199 22 -2.9 -2.9 42 43 - - - - - -
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
Source: CEIC, J.P. Morgan estimates, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, Bloomberg * Data from World Economic Outlook for April 2010 for Current Account data, ** F denotes forecast.
Note: Forex reserves as of August 2014 or latest available data. Updated as of 10 September 2014
19
Current Account External Debt Fiscal Deficit Public Sector Debt
EMBI Global Spreads and Yields EMBI Asia Spreads and Yields EMBI Europe Spreads and Yields EMBI Latin America Spreads and Yields
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14
Spread (L) Yield
3.2
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.2
5.7
6.2
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Spread (L) Yield
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Spread (L) Yield
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
Spread (L) Yield
20
11 September 2014
Perspective: Emerging Markets' Balance Sheets
No. of Companies Debt/Equity Debt/Assets Debt/Mkt. Cap Asset Turnover Current Ratio Interest Coverage Altman Z Score
China 118 0.67 0.28 0.96 0.84 1.04 7.5 2.9
Brazil 63 0.61 0.29 1.03 0.45 1.57 3.9 3.8
Korea 85 0.28 0.17 0.29 0.87 1.37 10.8 4.7
Taiwan 89 0.41 0.21 0.20 1.06 1.21 13.6 5.0
South Africa 37 0.41 0.21 0.17 0.84 1.47 6.0 5.3
India 58 1.02 0.37 0.40 0.75 1.23 4.7 5.7
Russia 18 0.38 0.24 0.81 0.48 1.38 12.1 3.4
Mexico 25 0.77 0.33 0.38 0.74 1.25 4.6 5.1
Malaysia 36 0.63 0.31 0.32 0.47 2.08 6.3 4.7
Chile 17 0.69 0.32 0.26 0.63 1.14 5.6 2.7
Indonesia 24 0.39 0.22 0.13 0.84 1.88 14.5 7.6
Turkey 18 0.67 0.30 0.45 1.20 1.43 6.4 4.4
Thailand 21 0.78 0.35 0.40 1.20 1.43 5.7 4.7
Poland 14 0.25 0.15 0.29 1.17 1.37 9.7 3.4
Czech Republic 2 0.60 0.27 0.52 0.38 1.16 9.8 3.1
Peru 2 0.25 0.18 0.14 0.45 3.37 24.6 4.2
Egypt 3 0.71 0.29 0.67 0.26 1.57 2.8 2.5
Colombia 8 0.38 0.23 0.41 0.37 1.07 4.7 3.4
Philippines 14 0.72 0.32 0.25 0.40 1.40 5.1 3.7
Hungary 2 0.38 0.20 0.40 1.02 1.46 6.3 4.2
Greece 7 0.88 0.34 0.68 0.65 0.94 2.9 3.8
Source: Datastream, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan. Updated as of January-14
2. For the debt to equity distribution chart, each box indicates quartile levels and markets with values exceeding the scale are indicated by the open-ended top box. The diamond indicates weighted average for each market.
Note: 1. All ratios are calculated from latest financial reports available ex Banks, Insurance and Diversified financials sector and calculations are based on weighted average of companies in the MSCI EMF universe. For Altman z-score, its application on company level is such that a
score of less than 1.8 indicates bankruptcy likely, between 1.8-2.7 bankruptcy likely within 2 years and more than 3 most likely safe from bankruptcy. For market as a whole, the ratio is a weighted average of companies' z-score, thereby giving a general quality of companies in the
market.
3. Quartile Distribution Charts: each quartile is separated by a line, with the exception of the top quartile which is subdivided in order to show the top decile of companies, shaded in blue. Markets with values exceeding the scale are indicated by the open-ended top box. The diamond
indicates the weighted mean for each market.
Debt to Equity Ratios Quartile Distribution Chart (x)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
K
o
r
e
a

S
o
u
t
h

A
f
r
ic
a

T
a
iw
a
n

B
r
a
z
il
C
h
in
a

M
e
x
ic
o

R
u
s
s
ia

I
n
d
ia

M
a
la
y
s
ia

T
h
a
ila
n
d

C
h
ile

T
u
r
k
e
y

I
n
d
o
n
e
s
ia

P
o
la
n
d

H
u
n
g
a
r
y

C
z
e
c
h

R
e
p
u
b
lic

P
e
r
u

P
h
ilip
p
in
e
s

E
g
y
p
t

C
o
lo
m
b
ia

G
r
e
e
c
e

21
Perspective: Demographics and Key Economic Statistics
Age Gross
2013 Growth Dependency Ratio* Enrollment Ratio US$ Per capita Total Per capita Total Per capita
million %YoY Young Old Secondary** billion (US$) (%) (%) (%) (%)
USA 318 1.0 na na 98 16,801 52,883 4.2 3.3 1.7 0.8
China 1361 0.5 0.3 0.1 81 9252 6801 18.8 18.2 10.2 9.6
Brazil 200 0.8 0.4 0.1 106 2195 10983 14.8 13.7 3.7 2.7
Russia 141 -0.3 0.2 0.2 89 2094 14804 17.1 17.4 4.0 4.3
India 1267 1.4 0.5 0.1 63 1823 1440 11.8 10.1 7.7 6.2
Mexico 118 1.0 0.5 0.1 91 1265 10700 6.1 4.5 2.6 1.1
Korea 49 0.1 0.3 0.1 97 1207 24614 6.5 6.2 3.6 3.4
Indonesia 248 1.2 0.4 0.1 81 842 3393 13.6 12.4 5.8 4.6
Turkey 76 2.1 0.4 0.1 82 832 10875 10.6 9.1 4.8 3.4
Poland 39 0.0 0.2 0.2 97 521 13509 9.2 9.1 4.0 3.9
Taiwan 23 0.3 0.3 0.1 na 491 20987 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.5
Colombia 47 1.2 0.5 0.1 97 391 8293 15.6 14.2 4.7 3.5
Thailand 70 0.6 0.3 0.1 78 390 5543 10.6 9.8 3.8 3.0
South Africa 52 1.2 0.5 0.1 94 355 6865 7.7 6.5 3.4 2.2
Greece 11 -0.3 0.2 0.3 109 327 29013 5.4 5.1 -1.1 -1.4
Malaysia 30 2.0 0.5 0.1 69 310 10337 11.6 9.6 5.0 3.1
Egypt 84 2.0 0.5 0.1 72 298 3539 13.9 11.3 4.5 2.2
Philippines 98 1.8 0.6 0.1 85 290 2951 13.8 11.8 5.3 3.5
Chile 18 0.9 0.4 0.1 90 275 15663 14.0 12.9 4.8 3.7
Peru 31 1.5 0.5 0.1 91 215 6949 13.4 11.6 6.6 4.9
Czech Rep. 11 0.2 0.2 0.2 91 196 18652 7.9 7.6 2.5 2.2
Hungary 10 -0.2 0.2 0.2 101 131 13229 4.6 4.8 0.8 1.0
MSCI EM 3,984 26,835 5,949 12.8 13.2
Source: CEIC, Datastream, Bloomberg, US Census Bureau, World Bank, IMF, UNESCO, J.P. Morgan estimates Updated as of January 2014
* Age dependency ratio defined as dependents to working-age population.
** Gross Enrollment Ratio is defined as pupils enrolled in a secondary level, regardless of age expressed as a percentage of the population in the relevant official age group
*** 10-year CAGR for period 2003-2013, in local currency.
Data for Gross enrollment is for 2011 or as of latest data available
September 11, 2014
Population and Demographics Nominal GDP Real GDP
Population 2013 10 year CAGR*** 10 year CAGR***
22
Perspective: Global Emerging Capital Markets
MSCI EMF Index Markets Concentration J.P. Morgan EMBI Global
Total Market Cap
Estimated Free
Float
Companies
Average Daily
Turnover
% of Emerging
Market Trading
Volume
Weighting in MSCI
EMF
Stocks constituting 75%
of Country Market Cap
Stocks constituting 75%
of Country Market Cap
Market
Capitalisation
Issues
US$ Bn (%) Number US $ Mn % (%) Number (%) US$ Bn Number
China 1637 50 141 3370 19.3 19.4 37 26 26.5 29
Korea 976 64 103 2670 15.3 14.9 31 30 na na
Taiwan 689 73 101 1943 11.1 11.9 32 32 na na
Brazil 872 54 73 2393 13.7 11.0 21 29 43.6 25
South Africa 431 73 50 830 4.8 7.4 18 36 14.8 na
India 951 30 68 1471 8.4 6.8 24 35 2.3 na
Mexico 379 59 30 458 2.6 5.3 11 37 76.4 34
Russia 499 40 22 948 5.4 4.8 9 41 56.8 9
Malaysia 367 44 43 311 1.8 3.8 18 42 7.1 5
Indonesia 258 42 30 221 1.3 2.6 12 40 46.4 31
Thailand 295 33 29 573 3.3 2.3 14 48 na na
Poland 140 50 24 207 1.2 1.7 9 39 14.8 6
Turkey 182 37 25 1128 6.5 1.6 12 48 na na
Chile 149 41 20 78 0.4 1.4 10 50 14.7 19
Philippines 153 32 20 118 0.7 1.2 12 60 28.7 16
Colombia 136 30 14 61 0.3 1.0 8 57 19.3 10
Greece 63 46 10 123 0.7 0.7 6 60 na na
Qatar 127 20 10 100 0.6 0.6 6 60 na na
UAE 119 20 9 284 1.6 0.6 6 67 na na
Peru 42 43 3 114 0.7 0.4 2 67 12.5 8
Egypt 17 60 4 16 0.1 0.2 2 50 1.5 2
Czech Republic 29 32 3 20 0.1 0.2 3 0 na na
Hungary 13 63 3 26 0.1 0.2 2 100 1.4 1
Total 8525 50 835 17462 100 100 366 192
Source: MSCI, J.P. Morgan. Updated as of 10 September 2014
11 September 2014
Korea
15%
Taiwan
12%
South Africa
7%
Brazil
11%
China
19%
Mexico
5%
India
7%
Russia
5% Rest of EM
19%
AC World Index Market Capitalisation MSCI Regional Market Capitalisation Top 8 versus Rest of Emerging Markets
EM Latin
America
19%
EM Europe and
Middle East
18%
EM Asia
63%
North America
54%
Developed
Europe
23%
Developed Asia
5%
Japan
7%
Emerging
Markets
11%
23
Perspective: MSCI Emerging Market Index Composition by Country and Sector
Number of Companies: 835 Total Market Capitalization (in billion US$): 8525 Estimated Free float : 50%
MSCI Emerging Markets
Free Index
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China 1.0 0.9 2.8 6.9 0.4 1.2 2.5 0.5 2.3 0.8 19.4
Korea 2.7 0.9 0.2 2.3 0.1 1.7 5.2 1.3 0.2 0.3 14.9
Taiwan 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.3 6.9 1.2 0.5 11.9
India 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 6.8
Malaysia 0.4 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 3.8
Indonesia 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 2.6
Thailand 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 2.3
Philippines 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.2
Asia 5.6 3.9 4.6 16.1 1.3 4.7 16.1 4.1 4.4 2.0 62.8
South Africa 1.8 0.4 0.8 2.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.0 7.4
Russia 0.4 2.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 4.8
Turkey 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.6
Poland 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 1.7
Egypt 0.2 0.1 0.2
Czech Republic 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2
Hungary 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
Greece 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
UAE 0.4 0.1 0.6
Qatar 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
EMEA 2.1 1.0 3.8 6.1 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 0.5 18.0
Brazil 0.6 1.7 1.8 3.8 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.3 0.6 11.0
Mexico 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.0 5.3
Chile 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.4
Colombia 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.0
Peru 0.2 0.2 0.4
LatAm 1.3 3.2 2.1 5.6 0.1 1.2 0.4 2.8 1.4 1.0 19.2
Total 9.0 8.1 10.5 27.8 2.0 6.5 16.4 8.4 7.7 3.5 100.0
Source: MSCI, J.P. Morgan. Updated as of 10 September 2014
11 September 2014
24

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25

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J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Strategy Team
Chief Equity Strategists
Adrian Mowat Asia and Emerging Market (852) 2800 8599 adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Pedro Martins Junior LatAm (55-11) 4950-4121 pedro.x.martins@jpmorgan.com
David Aserkoff CEEMEA (44-20) 7134-5887 david.aserkoff@jpmorgan.com
Frontier Markets
Aditya Srinath ASEAN (62-21) 5291 8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com
Christian Kern MENA (971) 4428 1789 christian.a.kern@jpmorgan.com
Diego Celedon Southern cone and Andean (562) 425 5245 diego.celedon@jpmorgan.com
Developed Markets
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas US Equity and Quantitative Strategy (1-212) 622-3601 dubravko.lakos-bujas@jpmorgan.com
Mislav Matejka Global and European Equity Strategy (44-20) 7325 5242 mislav.matejka@jpmorgan.com
Jesper J Koll Japan Equity Strategy (81-3) 6736-8600 jesper.j.koll@jpmorgan.com
Country Strategists
Adrian Mowat China (852) 2800 8599 adrian.mowat@jpmorgan.com
Emy Shayo Brazil (55-11) 4950 6684 emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com
Bharat Iyer India (91-22) 6157 3600 bharat.x.iyer@jpmorgan.com
Aditya Srinath Indonesia (62-21) 5291 8573 aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com
Scott Seo Korea (82-2) 758 5759 scott.seo@jpmorgan.com
Hoy Kit Mak Malaysia (60-3) 2270 4728 hoykit.mak@jpmorgan.com
Anne Jirajariyavech Thailand (66-2) 684 2684 anne.x.jirajariyavech@jpmorgan.com
Nur Cristiani Mexico (5255) 5540 9374 nur.cristiani@jpmorgan.com
Jeanette Yutan Philippines (63-2) 878-1131 jeanette.g.yutan@jpmorgan.com
Alex Kantarovich Russia (7-495) 967 3172 alex.kantarovich@jpmorgan.com
Ayan Ghosh South Africa (27-11) 507 0372 ayan.x.ghosh@jpmorgan.com
Alvin Kwock Taiwan (852) 2800 8533 alvin.yl.kwock@jpmorgan.com
Economic & Policy Research
Joyce Chang Global Head of Research (1-212) 834 4203 joyce.chang@jpmorgan.com
Luis Oganes Global Head of Emerging Markets Research (1-212) 834-4326 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com
Colin P Fenton Global Commodities Research and Strategy (1-212) 834-5648 colin.p.fenton@jpmorgan.com
Jahangir Aziz Emerging Asia (1-202) 585 1254 jahangir.x.aziz@jpmorgan.com
Vladimir Werning Head of Latin America Research (1-212) 834 4144 vladimir.werning@jpmorgan.com
Sin Beng Ong ASEAN (65) 6882-1623 sinbeng.ong@jpmorgan.com
Grace Ng Taiwan and Hong Kong (852) 2800 7002 grace.h.ng@jpmorgan.com
Haibin Zhu China (852) 2800 7039 haibin.zhu@jpmorgan.com
Jiwon Lim Korea (82-2) 758 5509 jiwon.c.lim@jpmorgan.com
Sajjid Z Chinoy India (9122) 6157 3386 sajjid.z.chinoy@jpmorgan.com
Fabio Akira Brazil (55-11) 3048 3634 fabio.akira@jpmorgan.com
Gabriel Lozano Mexico (52-55)-5540-9558 gabriel.lozano@jpmorgan.com
Michael Marrese Regional Head, Emerging Europe (44-20) 7777 4627 michael.marrese@jpmorgan.com
Sonja Keller South Africa (27-11) 507 0376 sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com
Yarkin Cebeci Turkey (90-212) 326 5890 yarkin.cebeci@jpmorgan.com
Anatoliy A Shal Russia (7-495) 937-7321 anatoliy.a.shal@jpmorgan.com
Nora Szentivanyi Hungary, Poland (44-20) 7777 3981 nora.szentivanyi@jpmorgan.com
Nicolaie Alexandru Czech Republic (44-20) 7742 2466 nicolaie.alexandru@jpmorgan.com
Rates Research
Bert Gochet Head of EM Asia Local Markets Strategy (852) 2800 8325 bert.j.gochet@jpmorgan.com
Jonny Goulden Head of EMEA EM Local Markets (44-20) 7134-4470 jonathan.m.goulden@jpmorgan.com
Holly Huffman Head of Latin America Local Markets (1-212) 834-4953 holly.s.huffman@jpmorgan.com

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