In Latvia, fresh fears of aggression as

Kremlin warns about Russian minorities

U.S. soldiers drive a Stryker armored personal carrier during !"#$s Steadfast %avelin II
military e&ercise in Lielvarde, Latvia, Sept. ' , ()*+. ,undreds of soldiers, vehicles and
aircraft from nine countries took part in a !"# military e&ercise on the alliance$s
eastern front. -.alda Kalnina/01!2
3y 4ichael 3irnbaum September (5 at 67*8 14
RIGA, Latvia As top Kremlin officials have sounded
ominous new warnings that they will defend ethnic Russians wherever they live,
Latvia, the NAT nation with the highest proportion of Russians, is feeling li!e it is in
the crosshairs"
#i$ months into a %loody conflict in &!raine, where pro'Russian insurgents have
sei(ed !ey stretches of territory, other nations that were once part of the #oviet
&nion are worried they could %e the ne$t target of Russian intrigue" )resident %ama
this month vowed that the &nited #tates would defend its eastern *uropean NAT
allies, %ut several episodes in recent wee!s have tested that resolve"
A top Russian diplomat touched down in Latvia+s capital to warn of ,unfortunate
conse-uences. stemming from alleged discrimination against the ethnic Russian
minority there" The capital city+s mayor paid an unusually timed visit to /oscow" And
a Russian'spea!ers+ political party passed out fliers comparing a heavily Russian
region of Latvia to the 0rimean )eninsula, which Russia sei(ed from &!raine in /arch
in the name of protecting its compatriots"
The incidents have trou%led Latvia, a nation of 1 million people along the 2altic #ea,
where many retired #oviet officers remained along with their families after the 3443
%rea!up of the #oviet &nion" 2ecause Latvia is a mem%er of the NAT defense
alliance, threats against it have importance out of proportion to its si(e" NAT troops,
including a 566'strong contingent of Americans, are rotating through 2altic
territories, and NAT leaders this month approved new forces that would %e a%le to
-uic!ly deploy to *astern *urope should they %e needed"
Russia and )utin still have a geopolitical interest in the post'#oviet territories,. said
Latvian 7efense /inister Raimonds 8e9onis" ,Russia is trying to use the Russian'
spea!ing minority as a tool to aggressively promote its o%9ectives".
The %rea!up of the #oviet &nion left %ehind su%stantial Russian minorities in all three
of the 2altic states, and many of their complaints are similar to those of pro'Russian
separatists in eastern &!raine"
In &!raine, Russian spea!ers in the east have said they feared attac!s on the right to
spea! their language" In Latvia, Lithuania and *stonia, ethnic Russians have
complained of laws that re-uire !nowledge of the national language to o%tain
citi(enship and of other rules that downplay Russian language and history in
classrooms"
The societal divisions have %een especially sharp in Latvia, where national leaders have
long clashed with the Kremlin" A%out one'third of the population uses Russian as its
primary language, and 3: percent of the population holds non'citi(en status and
cannot vote" Latvia+s government temporarily %anned some Russian state'run
television channels earlier this year, saying that the stations+ coverage of events in
&!raine and in Latvia was detrimental to national security"
;e can see attempts %y Russia to affect many countries+ policies" #oft power, soft
influence,. said Latvian <oreign /inister *dgars Rin!evics" ,#ecurity, foreign policy is
%ac! on the agenda, almost as it was in the 3446s".
Leaders worry that Latvia will %e specially targeted ahead of its si$'month term
holding the rotating *"&" presidency, which %egins in =anuary, and they say they are
%olstering their defenses against cy%erattac!s"
Uncomfortable divisions
The strains among groups have received Kremlin scrutiny"
;e all !now well the real scope of the pro%lems with human rights and the rule of law
that our compatriots encounter in the 2altic states" This topic is constantly at the
center of attention and activity of the <oreign /inistry of the Russian <ederation,.
Konstantin 7olgov, the Russian <oreign /inistry+s special representative for human
rights, said at a conference this month in Riga for ethnic Russians in the 2altics" ,It is
necessary to recogni(e clearly that such actions, carried out %y many political forces,
can have far'reaching, unfortunate conse-uences".
*thnic Russians in Latvia say that the violence in &!raine has opened uncomforta%le
divisions within the community a%out the e$tent to which they should em%race
Kremlin actions and model their own struggle along &!rainian lines" utright
violence, most say, is a pipe dream"
The delicate %alance was on display this month when the mayor of Riga, an ethnic
Russian, came under fire for a visit he made to /oscow at the same time Latvian
leaders were at a NAT summit to as! for %olstered defenses against Russian
aggression" As the popular leader of a city where more than a third of Latvia+s
population is concentrated, /ayor Nils &sa!ovs has %uilt %ridges %etween the Russian
and Latvian communities" >e has an outside chance of %ecoming prime minister after
cto%er elections"
2ut critics said the photos of the mayor smiling with Russian )rime /inister 7mitry
/edvedev and )atriarch Kirill, the head of the Russian rthodo$ 0hurch, gave the
wrong signal a%out Latvia+s resolve to defend itself"
I+m a Latvian citi(en" I+m an ethnic Russian,. said &sa!ovs, :?, who was %orn in Riga
to Russian parents" ,I+m attached to the country where I was %orn" 2ut o%viously I
share many values with Russian spea!ers all over the world".
>e said his visit to /oscow was intended to preserve economic ties %etween the
nations during a time of tit'for'tat sanctions, which he said he opposes" 2ut he also
said no one in Latvia wants a replay of the violence in &!raine and that NAT was an
effective and valua%le security deterrent for Latvia" >is trip to /oscow was followed %y
visits to ;ashington and to *"&" leaders in #tras%ourg, <rance"
&sa!ovs+s ethnic Russian >armony 0enter party is the largest in Latvia+s parliament,
holding nearly a third of the seats" 2ut it has %een shut out of ruling coalitions %ecause
ethnic Latvian parties have %een cautious a%out accepting a Russian presence at the
nation+s top levels" Now the mayor has to %alance %etween constituencies to preserve
support"
They are trying to wal! the middle line %ecause they+re trying to appeal to Latvians,.
said 9ars Kalnins, the head of the foreign policy committee in Latvia+s parliament"
,They support &!raine, %ut they can+t condemn Russia".
9overnment help
ne activist warned that if peaceful routes fail, moderate ethnic Russians in Latvia
may %e una%le to restrain more radical mem%ers of their community who have
watched the pro'
Russian separatists in eastern &!raine set up a -uasi'independent statelet"
There is a ris! for manipulating these Russian minorities here, especially when the
way to advocate our cause is not clear,. said *li(a%ete Krivcova, one of the leaders of
the Non'0iti(ens 0ongress, an organi(ation that presses for looser citi(enship laws and
for Russian'language education rights" ,There are some very aggressive people" They
are in the minority" Alone we cannot address this" ;e need the government to wor!
with us".
#ome efforts are underway" Together with *stonia and Lithuania, Latvia is starting
wor! on a state'funded Russian'language television networ! that it hopes can %e an
alternative to Russian state television, which has routinely portrayed &!raine+s leaders
as %loodthirsty neo'Na(is" Leaders also tal! a%out improving integration efforts inside
classrooms"
If ;estern nations are to hold strong against Russian efforts to divide them, said /ar!
Galeotti, an e$pert on Russian security services at New @or! &niversity, the %est path
to success is %y forestalling potential vulnera%ilities"
To %ring ma$imum immunity, ;estern democratic states have to do really well,.
Galeotti said" ,It+s a%out legitimi(ing themselves" It+s a%out ensuring there aren+t
disgruntled minorities who can %e manipulated".
4ichael 3irnbaum is "he 1ost:s 4oscow bureau chief. ,e
previously served as the 3erlin correspondent and an education
reporter.
)osted %y Thavam