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=
2
2
2
) (
) (
y y
y y
R
i
i
T0e ma4im$m val$e .or r" is o%!ained 30en !0e es!ma!ed and !r$e
val$es o. y coincide# (n !0a! case R is 1# (. R 0as ne/a!ive val$es i!
means !0a! y decreases 30en 4 is increasin/# (. !0e a%sol$!e val$e o. R
is lo3< li9e 0#6< or even lo3er< !0en !0e re/ression e?$a!ion is no!
s!a!is!ically si/ni;can!#
41
Cali%ra!orEs man$al
!test
7sin/ !0e a%ove no!a!ions !0e : val$e .or :is0erEs !es! is de;ned as
=
2 / ) (
) (
2
2
n e
y y
F
i
i
(! is o%vio$s !0a! 30en !0e error /oes do3n !0e : val$e /oes $,# (. :
remains small< e#/# %elo3 4 < i! means !0a! !0e re/ression e?$a!ion is
no! a%le !o ,redic! y on !0e %asis o. x#
t!test for the slo>e Calue
T0e de!ermina!ion o. !0e slo,e can only %e made 3i!0 a cer!ain
acc$racy# T0e inacc$racy can %e eval$a!ed on !0e %asis o. !0e same
da!a on 30ic0 all !0e calc$la!ions are done# (. !0e s!andard error o.
es!ima!e o. slo,e EaE is mar9ed %y s !0e !r$e val$e o. EaE is 3i!0 !0e
cer!ain!y o. 68 J 3i!0in !0e limi!s
1 1
1 1 1
a a
s a a s a + < <
Hra,0ically !0e si!$a!ion loo9s as in !0e ;/$re %elo3
42
T0e Essen!ials o. Re/ression
-arame!er S
a1
can also %e $sed !o !es! 30e!0er a[1 diCers .rom some
o!0er val$e aE1 $sin/ e?$a!ion
1
1 1 a
s t a a =
:ac!or t in .ron! o. s is !0e s!$den!Es !es! .ac!or# (nser!in/ !0e 9no3n
val$es in!o !0e a%ove e?$a!ion !0e n$meric val$e o. ! can %e calc$la!ed#
'e4! !0is can %e com,ared !o !0e val$es /iven in s!a!is!ical !a%les !o
see 30a! is !0e ,ro%a%ili!y !0a! !0e diCerence is s!a!is!ically si/ni;can!#
(n ordinary cali%ra!ion 3or9 !0e only reasona%le val$e !o com,are 3i!0
is zero %eca$se i! 3o$ld mean !0a! varia%le x is no! si/ni;can! and can
%e i/nored# Se!!in/
1
a e?$al !o zero !0e e4,ression .or ! %ecomes#
1
1
a
s
a
t =
(! is o%vio$s !0a! !0e smaller !0e inacc$racy in !0e slo,e de!ermina!ion<
!0e 0i/0er ! 3ill %e# (n ,rac!ice< 3e can se! a limi! .or !0e minim$m
acce,!a%le val$e .or !0e a%sol$!e val$e o. ! and 3ri!e#
5 . 2 t
T0e limi! val$e means !0a! slo,e EaE is diCeren! .rom zero 3i!0 a
,ro%a%ili!y o. a%o$! 11 J#
(tandard residual
43
Cali%ra!orEs man$al
T0is is !0e ra!io o. !0e resid$als and !0e s!andard error o. es!ima!e# (!
0el,s in ;ndin/ !0e ,oin!s !0a! do no! ;! 3ell !o !0e line#
3on0dence limits for the sin?le oAserCations
As a conse?$ence o. !0e $ncer!ain!y in !0e slo,e val$e< !0e s!andard
resid$als do no! !ell !0e 30ole !r$!0 30en %ad ,oin!s in !0e da!a are
loo9ed .or# (n .ac!< .or a /iven 4 val$e 3e can say !0a! !0e es!ima!ed y
val$e 3ill %e 3i!0 a ,reselec!ed con;dence 3i!0in !0e ran/e#
( )
( )
+ +
2
2
1
1
x x
x x
n
s t y
i
T0e val$e .or ! is selec!ed on !0e %asis o. !0e desired con;dence $sin/
n! as !0e de/ree o. .reedom# Hra,0ically !0e si!$a!ion loo9s in ,rinci,le
as in !0e ;/$re %elo3# T0e ran/e is a! i!s minim$m in !0e middle ,oin!
o. !0e da!a and increases !o3ards %o!0 ends# T0$s i! is clear !0a! i. !0e
%ad ,oin! 0a,,ens !o %e close !o ei!0er end a %i//er devia!ion m$s! %e
!olera!ed#
T0e s val$e /iven in !0e re/ression ,ro/ram re.ers !o !0e middle ,oin!
o. !0e da!a# (n ,rac!ice a rela!ive s!andard resid$al %i//er !0an 5 means
!0a! !0e ,oin! is li9ely some0o3 !o %e in error even i. i! is .ar .rom !0e
middle#
44
T0e Essen!ials o. Re/ression
(! s0o$ld %e no!ed !0a! none o. !0e a%ove men!ioned c0arac!eris!ic
;/$res are alone s$Vcien! !o descri%e !0e ?$ali!y o. !0e ;!# T0e
a%sol$!e error may %e small %$! !0a! may %e d$e !o !0e small varia!ion
o. varia%le y i!sel.# T0e rela!ive error may %e small %eca$se o. a 0i/0
mean val$e o. y# T0e correla!ion coeVcien! can %e made 0i/0 in a
cali%ra!ion >$s! %y ma9in/ !0e cali%ra!ion ran/e %road< %$! i. !0e !r$e
varia!ion in ,rac!ice is narro3 !0e ac!$al correla!ion may %e modes!# &n
!0e o!0er 0and< i. !0e cali%ra!ion da!a is re,resen!a!ive< %o!0 correla!ion
coeVcien! and : and ! !es! val$es are /ood meas$res !o !ell 30e!0er
!0ere is any si/ni;can! ,redic!a%ili!y#
6ultiCariate linear re?ression
60en !0e sim,le linear re/ression model is no! s$Vcien! .or !0e ac!$al
needs and more in.orma!ion a%o$! !0e meas$remen! is availa%le< more
!erms can %e added !o !0e e?$a!ion# T0e /eneral .orm o. !0is !y,e o.
e?$a!ion is
i
m
i
i
x a a y
=
+ =
1
0
2ere x can %e any varia%le $ as s$c0 or some .$nc!ion o. i! as e#/# i!s
s?$are# 8inear 0ere means !0a! !0e e?$a!ion is linear as .ara as !0e
re/ression coeVcien!s are concnerned# T0e de!ermina!ion o. !0e
coeVcien!s o. !0e e?$a!ion 0a,,ens in !0e same 3ay as in !0e sim,le
re/ression# Also !0e de;ni!ions o. !0e c0arac!eris!ics ;/$res descri%in/
!0e ?$ali!y o. !0e ;! remain essen!ially !0e same al!0o$/0 !0e
calc$la!ions %ecome more com,lica!ed# T0e main diCerence 0ere is !0a!
!0e de/rees o. .reedom %ecome a .$nc!ion o. !0e n$m%er o. !0e
varia%les !a9en in!o !0e e?$a!ion# T0a! eCec!s mos!< varia%les s and :#
T0eir e4,ressions c0an/e as .ollo3s#
S %ecomes
) 1 /( ) (
2
=
m n e s
i
: %ecomes
=
1 / ) (
/ ) ( (
2
2
m n e
m y y
F
i
i
45
Cali%ra!orEs man$al
T0e e4,ression o. !0e con;dence limi!s .or a sin/le o%serva!ion
%ecomes clearly more com,lica!ed and i! is no! /iven 0ere# 2o3ever<
!0e r$le !0a! %i//er resid$als o$/0! !o %e !olera!ed 30en !0e ,oin!s are
.ar .rom !0e cen!er re/ion remains valid#
T0e eCec! o. m in !0e e4,ressions .or s and : is s$c0 !0a! i. !0e las!
varia%les 0ave no! im,roved !0e ;! %o!0 val$es /e! 3orse# T0is is
es,ecially !r$e .or : %eca$se !0e n$mera!or is inversely ,ro,or!ional !o
!0e s?a$re roo! o. m# To 9ee, : a! leas! a! !0e same level as %e.ore<
addin/ a ne3 varia%le< !0e s$m o. !0e diCerneces e m$s! decrease
corres,ondin/ly#
(te>1ise re?ression
T0e s!e,3ise re/ression !0a! is $sed in !0e Arc-Me! is a s,ecial version
o. !0e m$l!ivaria!e linear re/ression# T0e im,or!an! addi!ional .ea!$re is
!0a! !0e ,ro/ram !ries !o add varia%les in!o !0e e?$a!ion in s$c0 a
se?$ence !0a! !0e ?$ali!y o. !0e ;! im,roves %y ma4im$m s!e,s# T0e
$n.or!$na!e !0in/ 0ere is !0a! !0is ,ro/ram< li9e all commonly $sed
s!e,3ise re/ression ,ro/rams< is no! a%le !o /$aran!ee !0a! !0e ;nal
selec!ion is 3i!0 100 J cer!ain!y !0e %es! one# 2o3ever< i! /ives a /rea!
0el, 30en !0e n$m%er o. ,ossi%le varia%les is 0i/0# T0e ,ro/ram also
/ives cer!ain ne3 ;/$res !o .acili!a!e !0e eval$a!ion o. !0e m$!$al
im,or!ance o. diCeren! varia%les in !0e e?$a!ion# (. !0ere is some /ood
reason 30y a cer!ain varia%le s0o$ld %e in !0e e?$a!ion i! can %e .orced
!0ere %y sim,ly c0oosin/ i! man$ally< ,re.era%ly a! !0e %e/innin/#T0e
$ncer!ain!y< as !o 30e!0er !0e c0osen se! o. varia%les really is !0e %es!
,ossi%le< comes .rom !0e .ac! !0a! a.!er !a9in/ a ne3 varia%le in!o !0e
e?$a!ion one or more o. !0e earlier c0osen varia%les may %ecome
insi/ni;can!# &.!en !0is is d$e !o !0e correla!ion %e!3een varia%les< and
in com,lica!ed cases< some .alse correla!ions may %e s!ron/er !0an !0e
!r$e ones# To c0ec9 .or s$c0 si!$a!ions !0e Arc-Me! s!e,3ise ,ro/ram
/ives< a.!er eac0 s!e,< Be4ce,! .or !0e c0arac!eris!ic ;/$res !0a!
descri%e !0e ;! as a 30ole= .or eac0 varia%le< !0e ! !es! val$e and !3o :
!es! val$es# &ne o. !0ese< :-!o \En!er< descri%es !0e si/ni;cance o. !0e
la!es! added varia%le# T0e o!0er< :-!o-remove< descri%es !0e si/ni;cance
o. eac0 varia%le as i. i! 0ad %een added as !0e las! varia%le !o !0e se!#
T0e :-!o-en!er val$e does no! c0an/e in !0e co$rse o. !0e selec!ion
,rocess and i! sim,ly s0o3s 0o3 im,or!an! !0e varia%le 3as 30en i!
3as !a9en !o !0e e?$a!ion# T0is val$e can %e ?$i!e diCeren! .rom !0e :-
!o-remove val$e a! some la!er s!e,# :or !0e la!es! varia%le !0e !3o :
val$es are al3ays !0e same#
46
T0e Essen!ials o. Re/ression
(n mos! cases !0e selec!ion ,rocess can %e con!in$ed so .ar !0a! a! leas!
one varia%le %ecomes insi/ni;can!# A varia%le can %e considered
insi/ni;can! i. i!s :-!o-remove val$e is %elo3 4# S$c0 a varia%le o$/0! !o
%e removed .rom !0e e?$a!ion %eca$se i! is ca$sin/ mainly e4!ra noise#
(. !0ere 0a,,en !o %e more !0an one si/ni;can! varia%le in !0e
e?$a!ion!0ey s0o$ld only %e removed one %y one %eca$se a.!er
removin/ one !0e o!0er may %ecome im,or!an!#
T0$s< !0e $se o. !0e ,ro/ram means !0a! i. may %e necessary !o !ry
several diCeren! selec!ions even 30en !0e da!a is ,er.ec!ly .ree o.
errors# T0e selec!ion ,rocess %ecomes essen!ially easier i. a! leas! some
o. !0e varia%les can %e c0osen on e#/# a so$nd ,0ysical %asis# S$c0
varia%les can %e .orced !o !0e e?$a!ion as men!ioned %e.ore#
(ome s>ecial cases
(. !0e sam,les 0ave %een ,re,ared care.$lly< !0e meas$remen!s 0ave
%een made 3ell and !0e concen!ra!ion da!a is valid< !0e da!a 3ill li9ely
/ive /ood res$l!s 3i!0 sim,le loo9in/ e?$a!ions and 3i!0 very li!!le
3or9# T0e c0arac!eris!ic ;/$res 3ill 0ave reasona%le val$es and !0e
resid$als 3ill no! s0o3 any oddi!ies#
2o3ever< 30en !0e da!a are e4!ensive !0ey may easily incl$de some
real errors or mis!a9es or some s,ecial .ea!$res# T0e .ollo3in/ e4am,les
ill$s!ra!e some cases#
Outliers
T0e ,lo! y vs 4 may loo9 as .ollo3s#
47
Cali%ra!orEs man$al
(! is easy !o ;nd o$! !0a! !0ere is one ,oin! !0a! %e0aves diCeren!ly.rom
!0e o!0ers# T0is ,oin! can also %e easily .o$nd on !0e %asis o. s!andard
resid$als# A.!er ;ndin/ s$c0 a ,oin!< i! is %es! ;rs! !o !ry !o ;nd o$! !0e
reason .or !0e devia!ion and< i. !0ere is an error< !o remove !0e error#
Even i. no reason is .o$nd< i! may %e %es! !o leave !0e ,oin! o$! o. !0e
da!a< %eca$se some error is a very very ,ro%a%le reason !o s$c0 a %i/
devia!ion# (. !0is ,oin! is no! removed< and in .ac! is erroneo$s< !0e
eCec! is a %ias error# T0e slo,e 3ill no! c0an/e and !0$s !0e sensi!ivi!y
remains !0e same#
T0e devia!ion may %e ca$sed %y some e4ce,!ional com,osi!ion and d$e
!o some in!erac!ion# (. so< !0e ,oin! m$s! no! %e removed< %$! a ne3
varia%le co$ld %e !ried !o see i. i! 3o$ld elimina!e !0e diCerence# (n !0/e
case o. 3idely varyin/ com,osi!ion i! is 3ise !o c0ec9 30e!0er some
o!0er analy!ical or re.erence line 3o$ld /ive a %e!!er ;!#
(. !0e devia!in/ ,oin! is no! in !0e middle< %$! a! !0e end< !0e reason can
%e !0a! !0e sensi!ivi!y c0an/es and a linear rela!ions0i, is no! s$Vcien!#
Even i. only !0e mos! sim,le linear e?$a!ion is $sed i! is no! clear !0a!
!0is ,oin! co$ld %e dele!ed %eca$se errors are easily %i///er a! !0e end
o. !0e ran/e as e4,lained earlier# (. !0is concen!ra!ion area is im,or!an!
i! 3o$ld %e %es! !o !ry !o /e! a co$,le o. addi!ional sam,les .rom !0a!
area !o see 0o3 !0ey %e0ave#
(e>arate caliAration eIuation
48
T0e Essen!ials o. Re/ression
60en !0e ran/e o. meas$remen! is 3ide< !0e real!ions0i, easily
%ecomes c$rved< %$! also< !0e .ollo3in/ !y,e o. si!$a!ion is ?$i!e
,ossi%le i. e#/# !0ere are no alloys 0avin/ concen!ra!ions in a ,ar!ic$lar
ran/e#
(n s$c0 cases i! is ,ossi%le !o $se ins!ead an e?$a!ion 0avin/ s?$are or
c$%ic !erms< sim,ly " se,ara!e linear e?$a!ions< %eca$se !0ey may /ive
lo/ically %e!!er ;!s !0an an overall ;!#
'xtra>olation error
Es,ecially 30en !0e e?$a!ion incl$des s?a$res or c$%es o. varia%les i!
is dan/ero$s !o e4!ra,ola!e o$!side !0e ran/e o. cali%ra!ionT !0is is
ill$s!ra!ed in !0e .ollo3in/ ;/$re#
49
Cali%ra!orEs man$al
(. 4 is .ar o$!side !0e ran/e y may %ecome even ne/a!ive#
Interferin? element
(! may also 0a,,en !0a! !0e ,oin!s seem !o .orm !3o /ro$,s< eac0 ;!!in/
a line< %$! !0e lines are on eac0 o!0er li9e in ne4! ;/$re#
T0is 9ind o. si!$a!ion may %e d$e !o some ,ar!ic$lar elemen! !0a! e#/#
eCec!s %$rnin/# (! may 3ell 0a,,en !0a! %y c0an/in/ !0e meas$rin/
,arame!ers !0e ,oin!s ;! on !0e same line# (. !0e a,,lica!ion is ne3< !0e
reason .or /ro$,in/ may also %e s$c0 !0a! !0ere is an in!er.erin/ line
!0a! 0as no! %een no!ed 30en !0e ini!ial ,re,ara!ions 0ave %een made#
(.< 0o3ever< a.!er all c0ec9s !0e si!$a!ion ,ersis!s !0e /ro$,s can li9ely
%e %ro$/0! !o/e!0er %y addin/ !0e in!ensi!y o. !0e dis!$r%in/ elemen!
in!o !0e e?$a!ion# T0is si!$a!ion is an e4am,le o. a case 30ere i!
cer!ainly 3o$ld %e %e!!er !o ;nd a 0ard3are or so.!3are sol$!ion !o !0e
,ro%lem %eca$se !0e consis!ency o. !0e re/ression sol$!ion is no!
cer!ain#
50
Cali%ra!in/ a Concen!ra!ion model
Cali%ra!in/ Concen!ra!ion model
A>>endix B. 3oncentration 0le format
Concen!ra!ion ;le is a !a% delimi!ed !e4! ;le# Fo$ can crea!e i! %y a
s,reads0ee! ,ro/ram Bli9e E4cel= or a !e4! edi!or#X
Sam,le names are lis!ed in !0e ;rs! col$mn s!ar!in/ .rom !0e second
ro3# Elemen!s are lis!ed in !0e ;rs! ro3 s!ar!in/ .rom !0e second
col$mn# Elemen! concen!ra!ions can %e .o$nd in eac0 ro3 a.!er !0e
sam,le name#X
An e4am,le o. a ;le< crea!ed in 'o!e,ad< is s0o3n %elo3#