Open Briefing | 1

The weekly briefing | 6 October 2014

Political and security risk updates


These briefings are produced by Bradburys Global Risk Partners in collaboration
with Open Briefing.
Africa: iolence escalates in !ibya as ri"al #go"ern$ents% "ie for $ilitary and political
do$inance&
Aericas: 'ecent capture of (e)ican drug lord e)poses links between cartel and
politicians&
Asia and Pacific: *ong +ong pro,de$ocracy protests continue despite "iolence
against de$onstrators&
!urope: -i"ilians killed in eastern .kraine as hea"y fighting escalates in /onetsk&
"iddle !ast: British aid worker 0lan *enning beheaded by 1sla$ic 2tate in 2yria&
0frica
#iolence escalates in $ibya as ri%al &go%ernents' %ie for ilitary and political
doinance
1n an attack on troops loyal to renegade !ieutenant 3eneral +halifa *aftar near
Bengha4i airport5 at least 26 !ibyan soldiers were killed and $ore than 60 in7ured in
two car bo$bings and clashes that followed the bo$bings on 8 October& The attacks
ha"e been bla$ed on the 2hura -ouncil of Bengha4i 'e"olutionaries5 a $ilitary
coalition of 1sla$ist $ilitias who are atte$pting to take o"er and consolidate "ital
territory in and around Bengha4i5 !ibya%s second largest city& The $ilitias ha"e
already o"errun ar$y bases in the area5 which lea"es the airport as one of the last
places under control of *aftar%s self,declared !ibyan 9ational 0r$y5 which has been
battling #terroris$ and e)tre$is$% under the banner of Operation /ignity since (ay&
The attack represents the latest in a series of operations targeting #go"ern$ent%
troops in !ibya as ri"al factions continue to press for control of the country& 1n
particular5 two bodies currently clai$ to represent the !ibyan people: the elected
and internationally,recognised -ouncil of /eputies ;-o/<5 based in the Operation
/ignity stronghold of Tobruk in the far east of the country5 and the self,proclai$ed
3eneral 9ational -ongress ;39-<5 which is supported by 1sla$ist ar$ed groups and
$eets in Tripoli& *owe"er5 neither side has been able to $onopolise the use of
force5 and therefore neither has been able to establish $ilitary or political
do$inance& 0s a conse=uence5 it is increasingly likely that if other states do not
inter"ene on the behalf of the -ouncil of /eputies the ongoing power "acuu$ will
result in territories controlled by opposing $ilitias& This would likely notably
increase the nu$ber of refugees lea"ing the country > a concern for !ibya%s
neighbours5 particularly southern ?uropean countries&
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@hile the current conflict often appears to be drawn along ideological lines5 the $ost pro$inent dri"ing
force is the desire for political power and control of !ibya%s rich deposits of natural resources ;oil in
particular<& Peace re$ains unlikely until either the -ouncil of /eputies or 3eneral 9ational -ouncil are able
to establish control o"er the country and enforce the state%s $onopoly on the legiti$ate use of force&
0lternati"e options5 such as the talks that began this week lead by the .9 2upport (ission in !ibya
;.92(1!<5 are already being criticised for not including the 39-5 and hence are unlikely to succeed in the
short ter$& *owe"er5 o"er the past weeks5 ?gypt has appeared to acti"ely support the -o/5 and has
offered to train the $ilitary and intelligence ser"ices of !ibya& @hile this $ight not pro"ide a short,ter$
solution5 it could certainly pro"ide crucial support for the internationally,fa"oured -ouncil of /eputies
#go"ern$ent%&
Other de%elopents
An attack on a fuel con%oy in "ali represents the worst attack on )* peacekeepers since the start of
the )* ission in the country +",*)-"A. in /uly (011. 9ine soldiers fro$ 9iger were killed when
insurgents belonging to the al,Aaeda,linked (o"e$ent for Oneness and Bihad in @est 0frica ;(.B0O<
attacked a fuel con"oy between the towns of (enaka and 0nsongo in the region of 3oa& The attack raised
the total nu$ber of .9 soldiers who ha"e died since last Buly to 805 with a further 60 wounded in the
sa$e ti$efra$e& The attack is the $ost recent in a rising nu$ber of attacks on the 65000,strong .9 force
in (ali&
-oali troops supported by African )nion peacekeepers recaptured the port of Barawe fro al2
-habaab on 3 October. 0ccording to $ilitary sources5 al,2habaab insurgents fled before 2o$ali troops
reached the city& The offensi"e follows the killing of al,2habaab%s leader and co,founder5 0h$ed 0bdi
3odane5 in a .2 drone strike last $onth& Barawe5 located 200 kilo$etres southeast of (ogadishu5 was the
last port held by al,2habaab& 1ts capture is considered a $a7or operational success against al,2habaab5 as
the port had allowed the $ilitant group to e)port at least C2D $illion of charcoal annually to 3ulf states&
Boko 4ara attacked 5ubi and 6atu %illages in Adaawa -tate7 *igeria7 in the early orning of (8
-epteber. The 1sla$ist insurgent group destroyed o"er D00 houses5 and killed an unconfir$ed nu$ber
of ci"ilians& 0ccording to witness reports5 $any burned to death after being asleep while $ilitants set
houses on fire& 1t appears the area was co$pletely deserted by state security personnel& (eanwhile5 800
Boko *ara$ fighters were arrested in -a$eroon after they entered the country in an apparent atte$pt to
seek refugee status&
On the radar
Tunisian parliaent elections to be held on (9 October.
Pro2"ohaed "orsi groups to protest on 9 October in !gypt.
,ncreased risk of anti2go%ernent protests in )ganda on 8 October7 which $arks the celebration of
1ndependence /ay&
Rallies e:pected in $ibya on (0 October7 which $arks the anni"ersary of the capture of (ua$$ar
3addafi&

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0$ericas
Recent capture of "e:ican drug lord e:poses links between cartel and politicians
On 1 October5 (e)ican authorities announced the capture of *Ector BeltrFn !ey"a5 the leader of the
BeltrFn !ey"a cartel5 and 3er$Fn 3oyeneche Ortega5 the organisation%s alleged financial operator& The
two suspects were arrested in a seafood restaurant in 2an (iguel de 0llende5 an old colonial town in the
centre of the country5 during a brief operation that concluded an 11,$onth long in"estigation led by the
federal police and the (e)ican 0r$y5 in collaboration with .2 intelligence ser"ices& !ey"a took the hel$ of
the fa$ily cartel in 2006 after his brother was killed in a shootout with $arines in the city of -uerna"aca&
/espite ha"ing endured a relati"e decline o"er recent years5 the cartel re$ains a$ong the country%s
largest cri$inal organisations& 1t is for the $ost part in"ol"ed in the trafficking of cocaine fro$ 2outh and
-entral 0$erica to the .nited 2tates and ?urope& The gang used to be particularly acti"e in central
(e)ico5 including in (orelos5 a state south of (e)ico -ity& !ey"a was one of the $ost wanted cri$inals in
(e)ico5 and represents the second $ost significant arrest by the country%s authorities5 after the capture
of Boa=uGn #?l -hapo% 3u4$Fn earlier this year&
The recent arrest is a fortuitous e"ent for President ?nri=ue PeHa 9ieto a$id the ongoing state,backed
war on drugs& The hu$an rights record of the (e)ican leader has co$e under fire following re"elations of
the alleged e)ecution of 22 people by (e)ican soldiers during a shootout in 2an Pedro ?l !i$In5 and the
suspected in"ol"e$ent of local police in a $ass disappearance of students in 1guala& *owe"er5 the capture
of !ey"a appears also to ha"e under$ined the credibility of the (e)ican political class5 especially those of
the opposition political parties& 0ccording to recent reports in the country%s $edia5 Ortega $aintained
links with the ?cologist 3reen Party of (e)ico ;P?(< and the 9ational 0ction Party ;P09<& The alleged
financial operator of the Beltran !ey"a cartel was a $e$ber of the P?(5 and was reportedly close to the
party%s secretary general and federal deputy for AuerEtaro5 'icardo 0studillo& 0studillo went so far as to
reco$$end Ortega for the presidency of the AuerEtaro chapter of the -iti4enJs Parlia$ent of (e)ico5 a
position he ulti$ately recei"ed& 1n addition5 Ortega is reported to ha"e fostered ties with pro$inent
$e$bers of P09& 0fter the announce$ent of his capture5 the $unicipal president of 2an (iguel de
0llende5 'icardo illareal 3arcGa5 a $e$ber of P095 ad$itted to knowing Ortega but has until now denied
ha"ing a close relationship with hi$&
!ey"a%s capture and the recent re"elations surrounding Ortega are likely to ser"e the interests of 9ieto
and his ruling party5 1nstitutional 'e"olutionary Party ;P'1<& 1f a close relationship between Ortega and
illareal were confir$ed5 it would represent a serious blow for the party that broke (e)ico%s history of
single,party rule& *owe"er5 the recent re"elations also under$ine the credibility of the country%s wider
political class5 and e)pose the inability of the currently waged war on drugs to address issues of
institutional refor$ and transparency&

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Other de%elopents
Argentina's central bank go%ernor resigned on 1 October7 a day after being publicly criticised by
President <ristina =ern>nde? de 5irchner. Buan -arlos KFbrega was considered a $oderating influence
on the go"ern$ent5 which displays a $ore inter"entionist stance in its handling of econo$ic issues& 1n a
public speech on 80 2epte$ber5 KernFnde4 bla$ed the central bank for failing to control the depreciation
of the peso5 and suggested that pri"ileged infor$ation had been leaked& KFbrega was known for his
doubts o"er the appoint$ent of 0)el +icillof5 the current econo$ic $inister and a staunch supporter of
the 0rgentine econo$ic $odel& The departure of KFbrega is likely to herald further inter"ention fro$ the
go"ern$ent in $onetary policy& *e is to be replaced by 0le7andro anoli5 head of the 0rgentine national
securities co$$ission ;-9<&
The youngest deputy of #ene?uela's ruling socialist party was assassinated in his house on 1
October. 'obert 2erra5 a 2L,year,old law$aker5 was the "icti$ of a planned attacked on his house in the
capital5 -aracas& 0ccording to .9 figures5 ene4uela has D4 ho$icides per 1005000 people5 and is the only
country in 2outh 0$erica to ha"e seen that rate rise consistently each year since 166D& Polls show that
personal safety represents the first concern a$ong ene4uelans& 0s a result5 the appro"al rating of
President 9icolFs (aduro is at its lowest since he first took office 1M $onths ago& The rise of insecurity in
ene4uela o"er the past decade has been caused by the con"ergence of se"eral factors5 including ar$s
proliferation5 ill,e=uipped police forces5 o"er,crowded prisons and a corrupt and o"erstretched 7udicial
syste$&
On 1 October7 the !cuadorian @ustice inister apologised to an indigenous counity following the
conclusion of a (01( ruling fro the ,nter2Aerican 4uan Rights <ourt +,A<4R.. !edy Nuniga "isited
the 2arayaku indigenous co$$unity to apologise for the "iolation of co$$unity rights5 cultural identity
and co$$unal property& 1n 16665 the ?cuadorian go"ern$ent illegally granted a concession for oil
e)ploration and e)ploitation throughout 2arayaku territory5 located in the heart of the ?cuadorian
rainforest5 to the 0rgentinian co$pany 3eneral Kuel -o$pany ;-3-<&The conclusion of an 10-*' ruling in
fa"our of an indigenous co$$unity represents a uni=ue precedent& The case is likely to strengthen the
bargaining power of indigenous co$$unities in their struggles against go"ern$ents and industries with
regard to the use of their lands for resource e)traction purposes&
On the radar
Boli%ia general election scheduled for 1( October.
)ruguay general election scheduled for (9 October.
&-tate of pre%ention' in Guateala <ity7 Guateala7 e:tended until 1L October&
=urther protests and clashes are likely between ebers of the counity and police in
Region #,,,7 <hile7 following the killing of an indigenous (apuche on 1 October&

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0sia and Pacific
4ong 5ong pro2deocracy protests continue despite %iolence against deonstrators
The pro,de$ocracy protests in *ong +ong ha"e continued despite "iolence ai$ed at the de$onstrators&
'eports fro$ *ong +ong $edia allege that the police are ignoring attacks upon protestors and their
ca$ps by pro,Bei7ing $obs& !ocal infor$ation indicates that protestors were se"erely beaten and supplies
were destroyed& Kollowing the attacks5 student leaders called,off planned negotiations with the local
go"ern$ent& Police ha"e denied the allegations& *ong +ong chief e)ecuti"e !eung -hun,ying5 who is
largely seen as Bei7ing%s puppet5 strongly urged protestors to lea"e the streets5 but also stated that he did
not want any har$ to co$e to the de$onstrators& ?arlier5 the police had used tear gas and riot gear to
atte$pt to disperse the crowds& These efforts were counter,producti"e5 attracting $ore people to the
de$onstrations& Protestors set an ulti$atu$ of 2 October calling for !eung to resign and for Bei7ing to
withdraw its plans to "et all candidates in the 201L election for *ong +ong%s ne)t leader&
The $ost,recent iteration of *ong +ong%s pro,de$ocracy $o"e$ent5 referred to as Occupy -entral5 began
in late 2epte$ber 2014& 0t that ti$e5 the -hinese 2tanding -o$$ittee of the 9ational People%s -ongress
decided that it would appoint no$inees for the election of *ong +ong%s chief e)ecuti"e& 2ince the
announce$ent5 "arious student groups ha"e occupied go"ern$ent buildings and facilities5 and thousands
of protestors ha"e taken to the streets of downtown *ong +ong& Bei7ing has conde$ned the protests&
!eaders in Taiwan ha"e e)pressed support for the protestors5 and ha"e urged the go"ern$ent in Bei7ing
to honour its pre"ious pro$ise to $aintain the autono$y of *ong +ong& The island has been run under a
syste$ referred to as #one country5 two syste$s% since Britain transferred so"ereignty to -hina in 166L&
The current round of protests has been likened to the student protests in Bei7ing%s Tianan$en 2=uare in
16M65 which ended the hundreds of deaths at the hands of the -hinese $ilitary& 0dditionally5 obser"ers
ha"e raised the possibility of such protests spreading to other areas in -hina& 1t is unlikely5 howe"er5 that
these protests will degrade to that le"el of "iolence5 or significantly spread to the $ainland& (edia
co"erage in *ong +ong5 Taiwan and elsewhere has been robust5 focusing particularly upon the
i$plications of de$ocracy for greater -hina& 1n contrast5 -hinese $edia has not publicised the e"ents5
reporting the i$pact of hooliganis$ in *ong +ong on traffic5 business and other social factors but not
$entioning the i$plications of the protests for de$ocracy and the future of -hina& 1n addition5 the
go"ern$ent in -hina has blocked the photo,sharing platfor$ 1nstagra$&
Other de%elopents
Rebels in the Philippines killed two soldiers on 10 -epteber. 2e"en suspected $e$bers of
Bangsa$oro 1sla$ic Kreedo$ Kighters ;B1KK< attacked se"eral unar$ed soldiers as they left a church in
/atu Piang in (aguindanao in southern Philippines on the $orning of 80 2epte$ber& B1KK is the $ilitant
organisation affiliated with the Bangsa$oro 1sla$ic Kreedo$ (o"e$ent ;B1K(<& B1K( was for$erly a part
of the (oro 1sla$ic !iberation Kront ;(1!K<5 the country%s $ost well,known 1sla$ist rebel group& 1n 200M5
B1K( split fro$ (1!K o"er disagree$ents surrounding peace talks with the go"ern$ent& B1K( seeks an
independent (usli$ state in the southern Philippines& The organisation is responsible for a nu$ber of
deadly attacks5 largely targeting go"ern$ent and $ilitary facilities in the region& The $ost recent attack is
likely a part of the group%s ongoing efforts to under$ine peace negotiations between (1!K and the
Philippine go"ern$ent&
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The )nited -tates has lifted sections of the ars ban on #ietna. The decision to ease the ban on
e)ports of lethal weapons to ietna$ was announced and welco$ed by officials in *anoi on 8 October&
The .2 /epart$ent of 2tate co$$ented that the sales of $ariti$e sur"eillance and security e=uip$ent
would be appro"ed on a case,by,case basis& The .2,ietna$ ar$s e$bargo was enacted in 16M4 because
of hu$an rights concerns& The recent agree$ent is likely ai$ed at i$pro"ing ietna$%s ability to defend
its territorial clai$s in the 2outh -hina 2ea& 0lthough -hina and ietna$ traditionally ha"e had friendly
relations > -o$$unist parties rule in both countries > relations ha"e recently deteriorated o"er territorial
disputes& ?arlier this year5 anti,-hinese protests beca$e "iolent and led to se"eral -hinese deaths in
ietna$ o"er the -hinese go"ern$ent%s oil rig located near the Paracel 1slands& The $o"e by the .nited
2tates is consistent with a string of security agree$ents signed by the .nited 2tates and se"eral
2outheast and ?ast 0sian countries&
*orth 5orean officials ha%e agreed to resue high2le%el talks with -outh 5orea in the coing weeks.
/uring a "isit to 2outh +orea for the conclusion of the 0sian 3a$es5 9orth +orean officials agreed to
resu$e the talks that had effecti"ely been suspended since Kebruary 2014& The 9orth +orean delegation
co$prised of se"eral high,le"el ad"isors to +i$ Bong,un5 including *wang Pyong,so5 largely considered the
second,highest ranking official in 9orth +orea& This is the $ost senior 9orth +orean delegation sent to
2outh +orea in years& 1t is likely that a $oti"ating factor for the agree$ent was 9orth +orea%s desire to lift
the (ay 24 (easures5 a set of se"ere econo$ic sanctions i$posed in 2010 after the 9orth +orean ar$y
sank a 2outh +orean "essel& /espite +i$ Bong,un%s apparent absence5 the trip $ade by his closest ad"isors
indicates that he likely still $aintains full control of the go"ern$ent& The 9orth +orean leader is belie"ed
to be ill and has not been seen in public for nearly a $onth& 2eparately5 9orth +orea%s a$bassador to the
.nited 9ations5 2o 2e Pyong5 stated that the country was ready to resu$e international talks regarding its
nuclear progra$$e&
On the radar
<hinese Preier $i 5eAiang will participate in a @oint cabinet eeting in Berlin with Geran
<hancellor Angela "erkel on 10 October&
The "alaysian go%ernent is e:pected to announce a contro%ersial new budget this week ai$ed
at balancing the country%s national budget&
Thai Prie "inster Prayut <han2o2cha will tra%el to "alaysia on 8210 October on his first foreign
trip since assu$ing office&
The <hinese <ounist Party of <hina will hold its ;th Plenary -ession of the 1Bth <entral
<oittee in Bei@ing on 20,28 October&
/apanese and )- authorities are e:pected to release an interi report on bilateral defence on L
October&

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?urope
<i%ilians killed in eastern )kraine as hea%y fighting escalates in Donetsk
!ast week%s confrontations in eastern .kraine represented the hea"iest fighting between go"ern$ent
forces and separatist rebels since the ceasefire was agreed on D 2epte$ber& 3o"ern$ent forces began
shelling residential areas of the rebel,held city of /onetsk on 1 October5 killing at least nine residents and
wounding 80& 1n response to the recent operations5 the ?.%s high representati"e of the .nion for foreign
affairs and security policy5 -atherine 0shton5 la$ented that such fighting in residential areas is not
ad$issible& On 4 October5 $ilitary spokes$an 0ndriy !ysenko reported that 12 pro,'ussian separatists
had been killed in fighting around the /onetsk airport& The .krainian go"ern$ent has refuted clai$s that
.krainian forces ha"e lost control of the airport5 a strategically,i$portant facility that could pro"ide rebel
forces with the ability to resupply&
The ceasefire agree$ent in eastern .kraine stands5 de facto5 ineffectual gi"en the current le"els of
"iolence in the region& The new 90TO secretary general5 Bens 2toltenberg5 reiterated last week that the
crisis in .kraine represents a $a7or challenge to ?uropean security5 and "oiced strong support for his
predecessor 0nders Kogh 'as$ussen%s robust stance against 'ussia%s in"ol"e$ent in the crisis& The @est is
also concerned that 'ussia $ay retaliate by i$posing further financial constraints on the .krainian
econo$y& The +re$lin agreed in 2epte$ber to not alter trade pro"isions between the two countries in
e)change for the postpone$ent of the ?.,.kraine trade accord until 2016& *owe"er5 the president of the
?uropean -o$$ission5 Bose (anuel Barroso5 has warned that 'ussian decrees5 which ha"e recently been
adopted5 already breach the current trade agree$ent&
1t is likely that "iolence will continue to pre"ail in eastern .kraine5 despite the weak ceasefire
arrange$ents& 1t appears that the progress of .krainian ar$ed forces against pro,'ussian separatists has
beco$e notably stifled in recent weeks5 and it is highly likely that5 should the high le"els of collateral
da$age continue to $ar .krainian offensi"es5 'ussia will seek to capitalise upon this high ci"ilian death
toll within international political platfor$s& 1t is less likely that 'ussia will o"ertly i$pose trade restriction
upon .kraine5 gi"en the current econo$ic sanctions already i$posed upon its econo$y by the @estO
howe"er5 a $ore subtle and gradual tightening of these pro"isions is likely to occur in order to e)ert
greater pressure upon the .krainian go"ern$ent as the conflict continues&
Other de%elopents
A <atalonian referendu has been pledged by parliaentary groups despite the -panish
constitutional court ruling to suspend the referendu on (8 -epteber. On 8 October5 the leaders of
four parlia$entary groups who support the "ote for an independence referendu$ in -atalonia affir$ed
that they would endea"our to hold a referendu$ "ote& The constitutional court has ruled it necessary to
re"iew the legality of the referendu$5 after the 2panish go"ern$ent appealed to the court to declare the
referendu$ illegal& On 80 2epte$ber5 -atalonia%s regional go"ern$ent suspended the publicity ca$paign
for the referendu$O howe"er5 the independence $o"e$ent pushed ahead with ad$inistrati"e plans with
the announce$ent on 2 October that 0rtur (as5 the president of the -atalunya5 had set up a co$$ission
to super"ise the referendu$& The 2panish go"ern$ent has "owed to return to court to ban the
co$$ission& On 4 October5 2panish Pri$e (inister (ariano 'a7oy called for talks between the
go"ern$ent and -atalan regional authorities to discuss the referendu$&
Open Briefing | B
On (8 -epteber7 the leaders of Russia7 ,ran7 Turkenistan and 5a?akhstan et at the fourth
<aspian -ea -uit7 held in the city of Astrakhan in Russia. The fi"e presidents agreed to recognise 1D,
nautical $iles so"ereign space ad7acent to each countryJs shoreline5 as well the right to fish an additional
10 nautical $iles beyond this 1D,$ile 4one& The leaders also warned that $ilitary presence of non,-aspian
countries in the sea would not be accepted& 0t the su$$it5 'ussian President ladi$ir Putin announced
that the leaders would sign an agree$ent on the legal status of the -aspian 2ea at the ne)t su$$it5 to be
held in +a4akhstan on a yet undeter$ined date& The countries ha"e failed to agree in the past whether the
-aspian 2ea is a lake or a sea > a classification that would gi"e countries disparate access to a body of
water rich in resources5 such as oil and gas&
$at%ians %oted in parliaentary elections on ; October7 with the current centre2right coalition led by
the Prie "inister $aidota -trau@ua set to return to power& 0head of the election5 polls suggested
that !at"ia%s relations with 'ussia would be a key issue for "oters& The current coalition go"ern$ent has
pushed for a greater presence of 90TO in the Baltic area in the face of 'ussian aggression in .kraine and
recent 'ussian acti"ities near the border with Baltic countries5 including the detention of a supposed
?stonian intelligence agent& The opposition *ar$ony Party is backed by ethnic,'ussian !at"ians seeking
greater cooperation between the two countries& 1n the weeks leading up to the election5 !at"ian police
reported that a s$all group of 'ussian,speaking !at"ians had 7oined pro,'ussian separatists fighting in
eastern .kraine&
On the radar
President -chul? of the !uropean parliaent will eet <hinese Preier $i 5eAiang in 4aburg7
Gerany on 11 October&
The !uropean parliaent's budget coittee will %ote on the final figures it proposes for the
!)'s (013 budget on L October&
The Asia2!urope "eeting suit will be held in "ilan7 ,taly7 on 16,1L October&
(iddle ?ast
British aid worker Alan 4enning beheaded by ,slaic -tate in -yria
Kootage of the beheading of British aid worker 0lan *enning by an 1sla$ic 2tate ;12< $ilitant in 2yria
e$erged on social $edia on 8 October& 0lthough the footage is yet to be "erified by official sources5 it is
widely accepted as legiti$ate due to its si$ilarity to the 1sla$ic 2tateJs pre"iously broadcast e)ecutions&
(oreo"er5 *enning was na$ed as a second hostage in footage of fellow aid worker /a"id *ainesJ
e)ecution the pre"ious $onth& *enningJs $urder follows international pleas to the 1sla$ic 2tate for his
release fro$ charities and a nu$ber of pro$inent 1sla$ic groups and 1$a$s within the .nited +ingdo$&
The latest e)ecutions ha"e co$plicated $uch of the debate on the 1sla$ic state& @hile the latest act of
brutality e)hibited by the group has drawn unified criticis$ and re"ulsion5 the purpose and response to
such acts has di"ided opinion& (any belie"e the international stature of the e)ecutions and the na$ing of
indi"idual state policies are being used to draw the @est into further $ilitary ca$paigns in the region in
order to a$ass support and recruit$ent& -on"ersely5 counter,argu$ents ha"e highlighted that the
e)tre$e brutality of the e)ecutions are si$ply acts of fear,inducing and dehu$anising propaganda: tools
often used in ideological conflict&
Open Briefing | 8
1t is for these reasons it is difficult to predict the likely outco$e5 e"en with credible threats $ade against a
further hostage5 .2 aid worker Peter +assig& @hat re$ains clear5 howe"er5 is that the .nited +ingdo$ and
its international allies will continue air ca$paigns against the 1sla$ic 2tate and support for +urdish
Pesh$erga forces on the ground in 1ra=& 2ignificantly5 the nu$ber of British 1sla$ic groups5 including
radical clerics5 conde$ning the killings as un,1sla$ic and in opposition to 2haria law $ay ha"e an i$pact on
the nu$ber of indi"iduals being radicalised and tra"elling to the region in support of the caliphate&
Other de%elopents
The -yrian Ary regained territory in the northern strategic border areas of Aleppo pro%ince on 1
October. 2tate forces relie"ed three key "illages close to 0leppo city that ha"e been under the control of
the 1sla$ic 2tate for the past year& 'eports confir$ do4ens of casualties ha"e been sustained fro$ both
sides in the latest offensi"e& 2trategically5 the national ar$y ha"e $ade considerable gains in the countryJs
north > blocking a nu$ber of crucial rebels supply links with Turkey& Proble$atically5 while .2,led
airstrikes in northern 2yria $ay ser"e to aid state ad"ances against the 1sla$ic 2tate5 the de$ographic
picture within the country is far $ore co$ple) than that of neighbouring 1ra=& 0 lack of credible do$estic
coalitions5 coupled with greater nu$bers of ri"al groups5 is likely to generate an increase in "iolence and
casualties in the co$ing weeks and $onths&
The Pakistani Taliban e:pressed support for the ,slaic -tate on ; October. Taliban spokesperson
2hahidallah 2haid issued a state$ent in .rdu5 Pashto and 0rabic co$$e$orating the holy festi"al of ?id
al,0dha and declaring unity with the ar$ed group& *e also stated that regional alliances ought to be
for$ed between 1sla$ic $ilitant groups in the pro"ision of (u7ahideen fighters to the region& The latest
de"elop$ent is likely to cause concern for 1ndia in particular5 as 1sla$ic 2tate $akes inroads in 2outh 0sia&
12 acti"ists ha"e been seen distributing pa$phlets recently in the Peshawar5 Pakistan5 and 12 flags ha"e
been seen at rallies in 1ndian,ad$inistered +ash$ir& 1t $ight be that the 1sla$ic 2tate can e)ploit bitter
internal ri"alries within the Pakistan Taliban in order to e)tend its global reach into a region rife with anti,
@estern ideologies&
The ,slaic -tate publicly e:ecuted si: soldiers in ,raAEs largest and westernost pro%ince7 Anbar7 on
3 October. The latest killings follow weeks of fighting in the pro"ince and the success of 12 in capturing
the towns of *it and +ubaisa on 2 and 4 October respecti"ely& The capture of 1ra=i forces and loss of
territory ser"es to highlight the strength of 12 in spite of targeted airstrikes& The 1sla$ic 2tate continues to
$ake gains within the pro"ince with an assault e)pected on the 0in al,0ssad $ilitary base close to the
2yrian border& 0in al,0ssad currently pro"ides troops and support to the *aditha da$n where 2unni
tribes$en and +urdish forces are engaging in conflict with 1sla$ic 2tate fighters&
On the radar
$ebanon to recei%e F1 billion in ilitary aid fro -audi Arabia. 2audi 0rabia will retain a further C2
billion until legislati"e assurances can be $ade that *e4bollah will not be $ade beneficiaries&
,srael's foreign inistry to suon the -wedish abassador to dispute the planned recognition
of the Palestinian state proposed by 2wedish Pri$e (inister 2tefan !of"en on 4 October&
*ATO -ectary General /ens -toltenberg to %isit Turkey fro$ M,10 October to discuss the latter%s

Apologies for the lack of Polar regions analysis this week.
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Analysts: -hris 0bbott5 /erek -rystal5 'oger (arshall5 TancrPde Keuillade5 -laudia @agner5 Ban (airhofer5
2ophie Taylor and (atthew -ouillard&