OVERPOPULATION

Population
As World Population becomes 7 Billion, the

Youth Population Is More and More
Concentrated in Africa and Asia.

2009 Population Reference Bureau. All rights reserved. www.prb.org
The Basic Issue: Is Population
Growth Good or Bad
1. Argument:
Population is a serious problem in developing
countries?
2. Theories:
Demographic transition
Malthusian model
Microeconomic theory of fertility
3. Policies:
What can developing countries do?
The Demographic Transition
Stage I: high birthrates and death rates
Stage II: continued high birthrates,
declining death rates
Stage III: falling birthrates and death rates,
eventually stabilizing
The Malthusian Model

2.3 The Household Model

The microeconomic household theory of
fertility
Demand for Children Equation
n x t P P Y f C x x c d ,..., 1 ), , , , (
Where
C
d
is the demand for surviving children
Y is the level of household income
P
c
is the net price of children
P
x
is price of all other goods
t
x
is the tastes for goods relative to children
Causes of Population
Decline in the Death Rate
The fall in death rates that is decline in mortality rate is
one fundamental causes of overpopulation. Owing to the
advancements in medicine, man has found cures to the
previously fatal diseases. The new inventions in medicine
have brought in treatments for most of the dreadful
diseases. This has resulted in an increase in the life
expectancy of individuals. Mortality rate has declined
leading to an increase in population. Owing to modern
medications and improved treatments to various
illnesses, the overall death rate has gone down. The
brighter side of it is that we have been able to fight many
diseases and prevent deaths. On the other hand, the
medical boon has brought with it, the curse of
overpopulation.

Rise in the Birth Rate

The new discoveries in nutritional science,
have been able to bring in increase in the
fertility rates of human beings. Medicines of
today can boost the reproductive rate in
human beings. There are medicines and
treatments, which can help in conception.
Thus, science has led to an increase in birth
rate. This is certainly a reason to be proud
and happy but advances in medicine have
also become a cause of overpopulation.

Migration

Immigration is a problem in some parts of the
world. If the inhabitants of various countries migrate
to a particular part of the world and settle over
there, the area is bound to suffer from the ill effects
of overpopulation. If the rates of emigration from a
certain nation do not match the rates of immigration
to that country, overpopulation makes its way. The
country becomes overly populated. Crowding of
immigrants in certain parts of the world, results in
an imbalance in the density of population.

* Excludes Hispanics.
Source: Population Reference Bureau, analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
The United States Will Continue to
Become More Racially and Ethnically
Diverse.
AT 300 MILLION
(2007)
AT 400 MILLION
(2039)
White Alone* 66 51
Black or African American Alone* 12 12
Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Other Pacific
Islander Alone*
5 7
American Indian and Alaska Native Alone* 1 1
Two or More Races* 1 3
Hispanic (of any race) 15 26
TOTAL 100 100
Percent of U.S. Population by Race and Ethnicity:
At 300 Million and 400 Million
Lack of Education

Illiteracy is another important cause of
overpopulation. Those lacking education fail to
understand the need to prevent excessive growth
of population. They are unable to understand the
harmful effects that overpopulation has. They are
unaware of the ways to control population. Lack of
family planning is commonly seen in the illiterate
lot of the world. This is one of the major factors
leading to overpopulation. Due to ignorance, they
do not take to family planning measures, thus
contributing to a rise in population.
EFFECTS OF OVERPOPULATION
Effects of Population

Depleting Natural Resources
Technological advancements have not only transformed
human life but also the face of this planet. Cars, trains, aircrafts...,
all have helped us save time which has added immensely to the
efficiency of human beings. However, the numerous factories and
industries, that manufacture goods without which, living a day
would be unthinkable, need a regular supply of energy. For years,
we have fallen back on fossil fuels, but so rampant has been the
growth of industries that, we have practically dug up all the known
deposits of coal, oil and natural gas. The state of affairs is so grim,
that we have raged ghastly wars against other nations for want of
energy.

Deforestation and loss of ecosystems
Environmental Effect

Pollution
Other than guzzling down tonnes of fuel
everyday, the thousands of industries, factories
and vehicles that have become our lifeline, are
continuously spewing out toxic gases. Besides,
the harmful effects on our health, one of the
gravest consequences of these gases is global
warming. With the average temperature of the
planet increasing at a steady rate, the levels of
seas and oceans are also rising at an alarming
rate. These elevated levels of water threaten to
submerge low lying areas in the world.
Effect on the Economy

As the population grows, it pushes the GDP per capita of
a nation down. While the government tries to meet the
needs of its people, with increase in population, the
demand for resources keeps growing. With not enough
food to take care of its men, such countries can't even
think of producing surplus to export and with this starts
the vicious cycle of relying on foreign debt.
Poverty
Starvation, malnutrition

or poor diet with ill health and
diet-deficiency diseases (e.g. rickets). However, rich
countries with high population densities do not have
famine.
High infant and child mortality. High rates of infant mortality are caused
by poverty. Rich countries with high population densities have low rates of
infant mortality
Low life expectancy in countries with fastest growing populations
Unhygienic living conditions for many based upon water resource
depletion, discharge of raw sewage
[
and solid waste disposal. However, this
problem can be reduced with the adoption of sewers. For example,
after Karachi, Pakistan installed sewers, its infant mortality rate fell
substantially
Increased chance of the emergence
of new epidemics and pandemics. For many environmental and social
reasons, including overcrowded living conditions, malnutrition and
inadequate, inaccessible, or non-existent health care, the poor are more
likely to be exposed to infectious diseases.
[
Less personal freedom and more restrictive laws. Laws regulate
interactions between humans. Law "serves as a primary social mediator of
relations between people." The higher the population density, the more
frequent such interactions become, and thus there develops a need for
more laws and/or more restrictive laws to regulate these interactions. It was
even speculated by Aldous Huxley in 1958 that democracy is threatened
due to overpopulation, and could give rise to totalitarian style
governments.
[204]

Population Growth Is A Problem
Population and the Global Crisis
Poverty, low levels of living, malnutrition, ill health,
environmental degradation, etc.
Population-poverty cycles
Population growth, saving, per capital income growth
7 Negatives
Lower Y per head
Poor people bear burden of population growth
Large population limits educational opportunities
Health of women is harmed
Family food is limited
Environmental degradation occurs
Illegal international migration and over urbanization
Population Growth Isnt A Problem
Other Issues
Underdevelopment
Resource Depletion and Environmental Destruction
Population Distribution
Subordination of Women
False Issue
Neocolonial dependence theory
Desirable
Consumer Demand
Economies of Scale
Labor Supply (sufficient-low cost)
Non-economic reasons
TREND OF POPULATION
Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.
World Population Growth Is Almost Entirely
Concentrated in the World's Poorer Countries.
World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050
Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.
Africas Population of 1 Billion Is Projected to
Grow Rapidly Through 2050.
Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.
The Differences Between Developed and
Developing Countries Can Be Stark.
KEY DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS CANADA UGANDA
2009 Population 34 million 31 million
2050 Population (Projected) 42 million 96 million
Percent of Population Below Age 15 17% 49%
Percent of Population Age 65 and Older 14% 3%
Percent of Population Ages 15 to 24 13% 20%
Annual Births 371,000 1.4 million
Lifetime Births per Woman 1.6 6.7
Annual Infant Deaths 1,900 110,000
Life Expectancy at Birth 78 years 50 years
Population by Age and Sex, United States: 2008
Source: PRB analysis of data from U.S. Census Bureau.
The U.S. Has a Younger Age Structure
Than Other Developed Countries.
Some Policy Approaches
What developing countries can do:
Long run: increase the price of child
opportunity cost of mothers time
Cost of educating child
Short run: control fertility
Persuade people
Family-planning programs
Economic incentives and disincentives
Redistribute population
Raise womens social and economic status

0
c
d
P
C
world's fourth largest country (after Russia, Canada, and US)
For centuries China stood as a leading
civilization, outpacing the rest of the world in
the arts and sciences
19th and early 20th centuries beset by civil
unrest, major famines, military defeats, and
foreign occupation.
After World War II, the Communists under
MAO Zedong established an autocratic
socialist system that, while ensuring China's
sovereignty, imposed strict controls over
everyday life and cost the lives of tens of
millions of people.
After 1978, his successor DENG Xiaoping
focused on market-oriented economic
development and by 2000 output had
quadrupled. For much of the population, living
standards have improved dramatically and
the room for personal choice has expanded,
yet political controls remain tight.

Tiananmen Square Guard

Great Wall of China
Location: Eastern Asia, bordering the East
China Sea, Korea Bay, Yellow Sea, and South
China Sea, between North Korea and Vietnam
Area :total: 9,596,960 sq km
land: 9,326,410 sq km
water: 270,550 sq km
Land boundaries: total: 22,117 km
border countries: Afghanistan 76 km, Bhutan
470 km, Burma 2,185 km, India 3,380 km,
Kazakhstan 1,533 km, North Korea 1,416 km,
Kyrgyzstan 858 km, Laos 423 km, Mongolia
4,677 km, Nepal 1,236 km, Pakistan 523 km,
Russia (northeast) 3,605 km, Russia
(northwest) 40 km, Tajikistan 414 km, Vietnam
1,281 km
regional borders: Hong Kong 30 km, Macau
0.34 km
Natural resources: coal, iron ore, petroleum,
natural gas, mercury, tin, tungsten, antimony,
manganese, molybdenum, vanadium,
magnetite, aluminum, lead, zinc, uranium,
hydropower potential (world's largest)

population
Population:1,306,313,812 (July 2005 est.)
Age structure
0-14 years: 21.4% (male
148,134,928/female 131,045,415)
15-64 years: 71% (male 477,182,072/female
450,664,933)
65 years and over: 7.6% (male
47,400,282/female 51,886,182) (2005 est.)
Population growth rate 0.58% (2005 est.)
Birth rate: 13.14 births/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Death rate: 6.94 deaths/1,000 population (2005 est.)
Total fertility rate:1.72 children born/woman (2005
est.)
Literacy: : age 15 and over can read and write
total population: 90.9%
male: 95.1%
female: 86.5% (2002)
GOVERNMENT
Government type:Communist state
Capital:Beijing Administrative divisions:23
provinces (sheng, singular and plural), 5
autonomous regions (zizhiqu, singular and
plural), and 4 municipalities (shi, singular
and plural)
: provinces: Anhui, Fujian, Gansu,
Guangdong, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei,
Heilongjiang, Henan, Hubei, Hunan,
Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Jilin, Liaoning, Qinghai,
Shaanxi, Shandong, Shanxi, Sichuan,
Yunnan, Zhejiang
: autonomous regions: Guangxi, Nei
Mongol, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Xizang (Tibet)
: municipalities: Beijing, Chongqing,
Shanghai, Tianjin
note: China considers Taiwan its 23rd
province; see separate entries for the
special administrative regions of Hong
Kong and Macau

Front of the Great Hall of the People

Picture of Mao Zedong
Economy
In late 1978 the Chinese leadership began
moving the economy from a sluggish,
inefficient, Soviet-style centrally planned
economy to a more market-oriented
system. Whereas the system operates
within a political framework of strict
Communist control, the economic
influence of non-state organizations and
individual citizens has been steadily
increasing. The authorities switched to a
system of household and village
responsibility in agriculture in place of the
old collectivization, increased the authority
of local officials and plant managers in
industry, permitted a wide variety of small-
scale enterprises in services and light
manufacturing, and opened the economy
to increased foreign trade and investment.
The result has been a quadrupling of GDP since
1978. Measured on a purchasing power parity
(PPP) basis, China in 2004 stood as the second-
largest economy in the world after the US,
although in per capita terms the country is still
poor. Agriculture and industry have posted major
gains especially in coastal areas near Hong Kong
and opposite Taiwan and in Shanghai, where
foreign investment has helped spur output of both
domestic and export goods.
The government has struggled to (a) sustain
adequate jobs growth for tens of millions of
workers laid off from state-owned enterprises,
migrants, and new entrants to the work force; (b)
reduce corruption and other economic crimes; and
(c) keep afloat the large state-owned enterprises,
many of which had been shielded from
competition by subsidies and had been losing the
ability to pay full wages and pensions. From 100
to 150 million surplus rural workers are adrift
between the villages and the cities, many
subsisting through part-time, low-paying jobs.
ECONOMY
GDP - per capita: purchasing power
parity - $5,600 (2004 est.)
GDP - composition by sector:
agriculture: 13.8%
industry and construction: 52.9%
services: 33.3% (2004 est.) Labor
force:760.8 million (2003) Labor
force - by occupation: agriculture
49%, industry 22%, services 29%
(2003 est.)
Unemployment rate:9.8% in urban
areas;
unemployment (including rural
areas) for 2003 at 20% (2004 est.)
Population below poverty line:10%
(2001 est.)

China's Population Growth, A.D. 0 - 2050
Population density in selected Chinese provinces and countries of comparable
population size
Selected Chinese

Countries of comparable
provinces population size

Total Population

Total Population
population* density population** density
(millions) (people / km2) (millions) (people / km2)
Shandong 86.2 562 Mexico 84.5 43
Guangdong / Hainan 72.6 343 Germany 79.4 222
Jiangsu 68 663 - - -
Hunan 62.5 306 Iran 58.9 36
Anhui 58.7 420 Italy 57 189
Hubei 55.9 301 France 56.7 103
Liaoning 39.8 273 Spain 39.3 78
Shanxi 29.6 189 Canada 27.8 3
Inner Mongolia 22 19 Australia 16.9 2
Tianjin 8.9 787 Sweden 8.6 19
Ningxia 4.9 95 Finland 5 15

The Impact of Fertility Assumptions on Total Population Projections in China
Fertility Estimate / Projection Population Estimate / Projection
Period
1994 1998
Difference Year
1994 1998
Difference Revision Revision Revision Revision
1950 554,760 554,760 0
1950-55 6.11 6.22 0.11 1955 609,005 609,005 0
1955-60 5.48 5.59 0.11 1960 657,492 657,492 0
1960-65 5.61 5.72 0.11 1965 729,191 729,191 0
1965-70 5.94 6.06 0.12 1970 830,675 830,675 0
1970-75 4.76 4.86 0.1 1975 927,808 927,808 0
1975-80 3.26 3.32 0.06 1980 998,877 998,877 0
1980-85 2.5 2.55 0.05 1985 1,070,175 1,070,175 0
1985-90 2.41 2.46 0.05 1990 1,155,305 1,155,305 0
1990-95 1.85 1.92 0.07 1995 1,216,089 1,220,516 4,427
1995-00 1.7 1.77 0.07 2000 1,265,889 1,276,213 10,324
2000-05 1.6 1.65 0.05 2005 1,301,231 1,315,885 14,654
2005-10 1.5 1.55 0.05 2010 1,326,814 1,345,998 19,184
2010-15 1.5 1.5 0 2015 1,348,339 1,370,923 22,584
2015-20 1.5 1.5 0 2020 1,361,692 1,388,265 26,573
2020-25 1.5 1.5 0 2025 1,363,000 1,394,280 31,280
2025-30 1.5 1.5 0 2030 1,350,678 1,386,891 36,213
2030-35 1.5 1.5 0 2035 1,325,808 1,367,471 41,663
2035-40 1.5 1.5 0 2040 1,292,860 1,338,371 45,511
2040-45 1.5 1.5 0 2045 1,250,899 1,298,948 48,049
2045-50 1.5 1.5 0 2050 1,199,919 1,250,100 50,181
Population Control Programs

Promotion on the use of Birth Control
Methods (Birth Control Campaign)
Setting Up Birth Control Offices in urban
and rural areas
One Child Policy
ONE CHILD POLICY
The one-child policy was a highly ambitious population control program. Like
previous programs of the 1960s and 1970s, the one child policy employed a
combination of propaganda, social pressure, and in some cases coercion. The
one-child policy was unique, however, in that it linked reproduction with
economic cost or benefit.
Under the one-child program, a sophisticated system rewarded those who
observed the policy and penalized those who did not. Couples with only one
child were given a "one-child certificate" entitling them to such benefits as cash
bonuses, longer maternity leave, better child care, and preferential housing
assignments. In return, they were required to pledge that they would not have
more children. In the countryside, there was great pressure to adhere to the
one-child limit. Because the rural population accounted for approximately 60
percent of the total, the effectiveness of the one-child policy in rural areas was
considered the key to the success or failure of the program as a whole.
Rapid fertility reduction associated with the one-child policy has potentially
negative results. For instance, in the future the elderly might not be able to rely
on their children to care for them as they have in the past, leaving the state to
assume the expense, which could be considerable.

Birth Control Choices
ABSTINENCE, It involves choosing NOT to have oral, anal, or vaginal sexual
intercourse.
Periodic Abstinence (Rhythm Method) - Periodic abstinence methods consist
of avoiding sex during the woman's fertile period. This is accomplished by using
either the calendar, basal body temperature, or cervical mucous methods.
HORMONAL METHODS change a woman's menstrual cycle to prevent
pregnancy.
EFFECTIVENESS
Oral Contraceptive (Birth Control Pill) 97-99%
Depo-Provera Injection 99.7%
NuvaRing 98-99%
Ortho Evra "The Patch" 99%

BARRIER METHODS prevent sperm from fertilizing an egg. EFFECTIVENESS
Diaphragm with spermicide 82-94%
Cervical Cap with spermicide 64-91%
Condoms for men 88-97%
Condoms for women 79-95%
Spermicides (cream, jelly, film, suppositories) 79-94%

INTRAUTERINE DEVICE (IUD) creates an environment in the uterus which
interferes with sperm's ability to fertilize an egg. 98-99% effective. NATURAL
FAMILY PLANNING (Fertility Awareness) involves learning to observe and
interpret menstrual cycle changes that indicate fertility and avoiding intercourse
or using barrier methods during the fertile time. 80-99% effective.
STERILIZATION is permanent birth control. Clients considering VASECTOMY
(for men) or TUBAL LIGATION (for women) receive information, counseling and
referral to a physician who can do the sterilization procedure. Some patients
may qualify for financial assistance.

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As World Population becomes 7 Billion, the

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