In the fourth quarter of 2013, the economy grew by 5. Per cent, slightly lower than the 5. Per cent growth in the third quarter. Growth was largely supported by the healthy expansion of the manufacturing, finance and insurance, as well as wholesale and retail trade sectors.
In the fourth quarter of 2013, the economy grew by 5. Per cent, slightly lower than the 5. Per cent growth in the third quarter. Growth was largely supported by the healthy expansion of the manufacturing, finance and insurance, as well as wholesale and retail trade sectors.
In the fourth quarter of 2013, the economy grew by 5. Per cent, slightly lower than the 5. Per cent growth in the third quarter. Growth was largely supported by the healthy expansion of the manufacturing, finance and insurance, as well as wholesale and retail trade sectors.
Economic Survey of Singapore 2013 Economic Performance
MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY 1
CHAPTER 1 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW In the fourth quarter of 2013, the economy grew by 5.5 per cent, slightly lower than the 5.8 per cent growth in the third quarter. Growth was largely supported by the healthy expansion of the manufacturing, finance & insurance, as well as wholesale & retail trade sectors. For the whole of 2013, the economy grew by 4.1 per cent, higher than the 1.9 per cent growth in 2012. This was mainly due to strong growth in the services producing industries, particularly the finance & insurance, as well as wholesale & retail trade sectors. OVERALL PERFORMANCE The economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, moderating from the 5.8 per cent growth in the third quarter (Exhibit 1.1). On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, the economy expanded by 6.1 per cent, much faster than the 0.3 per cent increase in the previous quarter. The manufacturing sector grew by 7.0 per cent in the fourth quarter, higher than the 5.3 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. Growth was supported by strong performances in the electronics and transport engineering clusters. The construction sector grew by 4.8 per cent, lower than the 6.6 per cent growth in the preceding quarter, due to a moderation in private sector construction activities. Services producing industries as a whole grew by 5.9 per cent, slower than the 6.3 per cent growth in the previous quarter. Growth was led by the finance & insurance sector, which expanded by 9.7 per cent, comparable to the 10 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter. The wholesale & retail trade sector grew by 7.3 per cent, extending the 6.3 per cent growth in the preceding quarter. Among the services industries, the slowest growth was clocked in the accommodation & food services sector, at 2.2 per cent, lower than the 3.6 per cent gain in the preceding quarter. The other services industries expanded by 2.4 per cent, moderating from the 4.5 per cent growth in the preceding 2.2 2.4 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.5 7.0 7.3 9.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Finance & Insurance Wholesale & Retail Trade Manufacturing Overall GDP Growth Information & Comms Construction Transportation & Storage Business Services Other Services Accommodation & Food Per Cent Exhibit 1.1: GDP and Sectoral Growth Rates in 4Q 2013 Economic Survey of Singapore 2013 Economic Performance 2 MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY quarter. For the whole of 2013, the economy grew by 4.1 per cent, an improvement over the 1.9 per cent growth in 2012 (Exhibit 1.2). Growth in the manufacturing sector improved from 0.3 per cent in 2012 to 1.7 per cent in 2013, on the back of strong growth in the electronics and transport engineering clusters. By contrast, growth in the construction sector moderated to 5.9 per cent, from 8.6 per cent in 2012. Growth in the services producing industries picked up to 5.3 per cent in 2013, from 2.0 per cent in 2012. This was mainly due to stronger growth in the finance & insurance and wholesale & retail trade sectors. The finance & insurance sector grew by 11 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent in the previous year. The wholesale & retail trade sector expanded by 5.0 per cent, after declining by 1.4 per cent the year before. Contribution to Growth In the fourth quarter of 2013, the manufacturing, finance & insurance, and wholesale & retail sectors collectively accounted for over half of overall growth (Exhibit 1.3). The transportation & storage, other services industries, construction, and information & communication sectors also contributed positively to growth in the fourth quarter. For the whole of 2013, all sectors contributed positively to growth (Exhibit 1.4). Finance & insurance was the largest contributor (1.2 percentage-points), followed by wholesale & retail trade (0.8 percentage-points) and business services (0.6 percentage-points). Exhibit 1.2: GDP and Sectoral Growth Rates in 2013 1.7 1.9 3.0 3.0 4.1 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.9 10.6 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Finance & Insurance Construction Information & Comms Business Services Wholesale & Retail Trade Overall GDP Growth Transportation & Storage Accommodation & Food Other Services Manufacturing Per Cent 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.8 5.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Overall GDP Growth Manufacturing Finance & Insurance Wholesale & Retail Trade Business Services Transportation & Storage Other Services Construction Information & Comms Accommodation & Food Per Cent Exhibit 1.3: Percentage-Point Contribution to Growth in Real GDP in 4Q 2013 (By Industry) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 4.1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Overall GDP Growth Finance & Insurance Wholesale & Retail Trade Business Services Manufacturing Transportation & Storage Construction Information & Comms Other Services Accommodation & Food Per Cent Exhibit 1.4: Percentage-Point Contribution to Growth in Real GDP in 2013 (By Industry) Economic Survey of Singapore 2013 Economic Performance MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY 3 SOURCES OF GROWTH Total demand rose by 3.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, lower than the 6.3 per cent increase in the preceding quarter (Exhibit 1.5). Total demand growth in the fourth quarter was supported by external demand, but weighed down by domestic demand. Specifically, domestic demand contributed negatively to total demand growth (-0.9 percentage-points). The decline in domestic demand was largely driven by a fall in inventories. External demand, on the other hand, continued to provide support to total demand growth (4.5 percentage-points). For the whole of 2013, growth in total demand was 3.1 per cent, similar to the pace of growth in 2012. External demand was the key contributor to total demand growth, accounting for 2.7 percentage-points, or almost 90 per cent, of the increase. External Demand External demand grew by 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, following the 6.5 per cent increase in the preceding quarter (Exhibit 1.6). For the whole of 2013, external demand grew at a faster pace of 3.6 per cent, compared to the 1.4 per cent growth in 2012. This was supported mainly by growth in the exports of machinery & transport equipment, miscellaneous manufactures, and transport services. Domestic Demand Total domestic demand declined by 3.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, a reversal from the 5.6 per cent increase in the preceding quarter. The negative growth in inventories was the key contributor to the decline in total domestic demand. For 2013 as a whole, total domestic demand rose by a modest 1.7 per cent, following the 8.6 per cent increase in 2012. The slower growth in total domestic demand was primarily due to the decline in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF). Exhibit 1.5: Percentage-Point Contribution to Total Demand Growth 2012 2013 2013 II III IV Total Demand 3.1 3.5 6.3 3.6 3.1 External Demand 1.1 3.5 5.0 4.5 2.7 Total Domestic Demand 2.0 0.0 1.3 -0.9 0.4 Consumption Expenditure 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 Public -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 Private 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 0.7 -0.2 0.4 -0.5 -0.2 Changes in Inventories 0.9 -0.4 0.4 -1.0 0.0 -5 0 5 10 15 IV I 2013 II III IV Per Cent Exhibit 1.6: Changes in Total Demand at 2005 Market Prices Total Domestic 2012 External Economic Survey of Singapore 2013 Economic Performance 4 MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY Consumption Expenditure Total consumption expenditure increased by 4.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, following the 3.7 per cent increase in the preceding quarter. For the full year, total consumption expenditure grew by 4.4 per cent, faster than the 2.8 per cent growth in 2012. Public consumption expenditure increased by 11 per cent, a strong rebound from the 1.9 per cent decline in 2012. Private consumption expenditure recorded gains of 2.7 per cent, moderating from the 4.1 per cent increase in the preceding year. Gross Fixed Capital Formation GFCF fell by 6.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2013, a reversal from the expansion of 4.4 per cent in the preceding quarter. For the whole of 2013, GFCF declined by 2.6 per cent, compared to the growth of 8.7 per cent in the preceding year (Exhibit 1.7). The decline was largely due to lower spending on transport equipment and machinery, equipment & software, which more than offset the increase in spending on construction & works (Exhibit 1.8). NATIONAL SAVING Singapores nominal GDP amounted to $370 billion in 2013, an increase of 4.2 per cent over 2012. As factor income outflows exceeded inflows by $8.7 billion, the Gross National Income (GNI) was $361 billion. This was higher than the $347 billion in 2012. Gross National Savings (GNS) grew by 3.5 per cent to $165 billion in 2013. This comprised a net $68 billion lent or transferred abroad and $97 billion in Gross Capital Formation. The national savings rate was 46 per cent, unchanged from the preceding year. Exhibit 1.7: Annual Changes in Gross Fixed Capital Formation at 2005 Market Prices, 2013 Total Public Private TOTAL -2.6 -0.5 -3.1 Construction & Works 5.3 0.3 7.4 Transport Equipment -26.9 74.7 -28.0 Machinery, Equipment & Software -5.2 -12.6 -4.8 Exhibit 1.8: Percentage Distribution of Gross Fixed Capital Formation at Current Market Prices, 2013 Total Public Private TOTAL 100.0 17.2 82.8 Construction & Works 63.4 15.8 47.6 Transport Equipment 8.6 0.2 8.4 Machinery, Equipment & Software 28.0 1.3 26.8 Economic Survey of Singapore 2013 Economic Performance MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY 5 GNI AND THE EXTERNAL ECONOMY Factor income from abroad reached $81 billion in 2013, up from $80 billion in 2012. The contribution of overseas operations to the total economy was 18 per cent in 2013, similar to that in 2012 (Exhibit 1.9), as total income grew at broadly the same pace as factor income from abroad. Based on the Survey of Singapores Investment Abroad, the stock of direct investment abroad increased from $447 billion in 2011 to $460 billion in 2012. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 Per Cent Exhibit 1.9: Singapores Earnings from External Economy as Proportion of Total Income Factor Income From Abroad (FIFA) GDP + FIFA