Economic Analysis of Witch-Hunting

Economic
Analysis of
Witch-Hunting
Reporter
Date2013/9/12

Brownbag Seminar Series for Development Economics, School of Economics, Fudan University
Agenda

History of Witch-Hunting, the Nightmare in
Medieval Europe
Theoretical Explanations:
Scapegoat Theory vs Income Shock Theory
Two papers on Witch-Hunting
Conclusion and Policy Implication
Game of Thrones (2012) Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (1937)

the Malleus Maleficarum 1487
Water test
Death by fire
Section I: Witches exist to help the Devil
Section II: Matters of practice and actual cases
Section III: Legal part of the Malleus that describes
how to prosecute a witch.

James VI and I (1566 1625)
Gunpowder Plot (1605)

Daemonologie,

Scapegoat Theory

Socio-cultural and Religious Explanation


Witchcraft, Weather and
Economic Growth
Emily Oster
Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004


What about Witchcraft and Economic Development???

Income Shock Theory
A large-scale example of violence and
scapegoating prompted by a
deterioration in economic conditions.

Poverty and witch killing
Edward Miguel
The Review of Economics Studies, 2003

Northern Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Uganda
Zimbabwe
Congo

The availability of food resources is often the key determinant of the
treatment of the elderly.(Simmons,1945; Silverman and Maxwell,1984;
Glascock,1987)

In ethnically Sukuma western
Tanzania,a large proportion of the
population follows traditional religions
and have never adopted Christianity or
Islam.

Rainy Season
SepDec 200mm500mm
MarMay 300mm600mm
Main Crops
Maize & Cotton
3072 accused witches were killed
in Sukumaland from 1970 to 1988.
80% of victims were women and
their median age was between 50
and 60 years old, an advanced age
for Tanzania, where life expectancy
is only 51 years (UNDP, 2002)
Murders are always their relatives
kinsneighbors.

Why elders?
Why relatives?
Meatu District
Witchcraft beliefs are likely to be
particularly persistent and difficult to
falsify in a world of mean-reverting
income, weather, and health
stochastic processes, since actions
taken to combat witchcraft will all
too often appear successful.

Two-thirds of the households
surveyed follow traditional
religions.
Tanzanian government efforts to stop the
killings have been limited and
unsuccessful.
Singyanga regional government in late
1970s arrested 897 suspects,12 died in
police and the remaining were released.
Only 7 of 1622 individuals arrested in
connection with witch killings during
1970s and 1980s were convicted.

Causing death of an individual: 95.1%
Causing poor health to another individual: 36.3%
Causing livestock to die: 14.3%
Causing drought: 4.9%
Causing flood: 0%
Causing crop failure:7.7 %

More elderly women witches are killed following
extreme rainfall, but not other calamities.
Cultural Norm Explanation

Large negative income shocks associated with
extreme weather are the driving force behind witch
attacks.
Why elderly women??
Gender inequality; Patrilocal exogamy; Sungu-sungu
Why relatives??
Psychologists have found that people tend to hold views
consistent with their self-interest (Baron, 2001)

Income Shock Theory


Empirical Analysis

Village Council Survey
Household Survey
1Has this village faced any natural disasters or calamities in the past ten years?
(Prompt: For example, drought, famine, floods, locusts)

2Whether there had been any murders in the village during the previous 10 years,
and if so, the number and years of the murder.
1Surveyed households were randomly sampled from the Village Tax Register, and
a neighbour of each sampled household was also surveyed.
21293 households were surveyed.



Extreme Scarcity Theory?

=
1
+
1
+
1
+
1
(1)

=
2
+
2
+
2
+
2
(2)
If famine relief aid blunts the impact of
extreme rainfall on income, coefficient
estimates should be interpreted as lower
bounds on effects in the absence of relief.





Extreme rainfall in Tanzania leads to large
income drops and a doubling of witch murders.
What public policy could do to eliminate witch
killings in Tanzania?
Improve the system of formal insurance.
Provide elderly women in the study area with
regular pensions.


Emily Oster

Associate Professor of Economics
Booth School of Business,
University of Chicago

Edward Miguel
Oxfam Professor
Department of Economics,
University of California, Berkeley

@brownbag @fudan econ brownbag
brownbag
Thank You!


Economic Analysis of Witch-Hunting

Enviado por

Dados do documento

Direitos autorais

Formatos disponíveis

Compartilhar este documento

Compartilhar ou incorporar documento

Opções de compartilhamento

Você considera este documento útil?

Este conteúdo é inapropriado?

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Economic Analysis of Witch-Hunting

Enviado por

Direitos autorais:

Formatos disponíveis

Economic

Você também pode gostar