Ashish Kumar ashish.kumar@elaracapital.

com +91 22 3032 8536

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Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Story needs more support
Quick comment: Inflation falls on base; real recovery clouded
Sustainability of growth momentum post robust Q1FY15 GDP figures
was clouded in the first place and the current round of macro data
distinctly signals that. Waiting for the economy to self-correct could
take longer-than-expected as Indias macro stability indicators
continue to have traces of latent stagflation pressures.
We remain cautious of the short-term recovery prospects, and,
accordingly, retain our FY15E for real GDP at 5.4%. A slow pickup in
the economy could lend a downward bias to our FY16E for real GDP
at 6.7%.
Elevated levels of headline inflation in 2014 have induced a strong
base effect. Coupled with easing vegetable prices and moderation in
crude, the headline CPI inflation at 6.5% in September 2014 suddenly
looks benign. Inflation readings for the next three months could
continue to look benign on these counts.
Along with a normalization of base in January 2014, the dynamics of
food prices and bottomed core inflation are key risks for the inflation
trajectory in Q4FY15. On a YoY basis, the pace of resurrection of
headline inflation in Q4FY15 could turn out to much sharper than
anticipated.
Factory output
Deseasonalized movement in overall factory output, as measured
by 3mma SAAR, has shown a sizeable loss in the sequential
momentum contraction of 9.2% the largest since July 2013.
Most manufacturing momentum gains in Q1FY15 on account of
strong exports demand seem to be over now. In the
manufacturing sector, 11 out of 22 industry groups contracted
during August 2014. For detailed classification, see page 2.
Contraction in consumer goods production at 6.9% YoY and
19.5% 3mma SAAR, centered on durables, indicates a long wait
for broad-based revival in the consumption cycle.
Retail inflation
CPI inflation has responded well to an across-the-board high base,
supported by almost zero sequential momentum growth on a MoM
basis. For a detailed CPI inflation breakdown, please refer to page 3.
Monetary policy preview
We remain bearish on the structural supply-side
bottlenecks that continue to pose upside risks to inflation targets set
by the Central Bank (CB). In the last monetary policy statement, the CB
underlined it will look through the base effect of the inflation
trajectory.
Of the key assumptions in our base case outlook on inflation, namely
1) disappointment in the spatial distribution of the Monsoon, affecting
farm productivity and distorting retail price regimes, and 2) a growth
revival without supply-side response stoking pricing power, constitutes
a major risk to the 200bp disinflation target set by the CB during 2015.
And, that leaves real chances of further rate hikes by the CB.
Broad collapse in factory output
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IP Ex-capital goods

Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research
Trends in YoY growth of IP
Y-o-Y (%) Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14
General 3.7 5.6 3.9 0.4 0.4
Mining 1.7 2.5 4.5 1.2 2.6
Manufacturing 3.0 5.9 2.5 (1.0) (1.4)
Electricity 11.9 6.7 15.7 11.7 12.9
Basic goods 8.6 7.5 10.0 7.4 9.6
Capital goods 13.4 4.2 23.3 (3.9) (11.3)
Intermediate goods 3.0 3.5 2.4 3.0 0.3
Consumer goods (4.8) 4.6 (9.7) (7.7) (6.9)
Durables (7.7) 3.6 (23.4) (20.9) (15.0)
Non-durables (2.7) 5.2 0.6 2.4 (0.9)
Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research
Trends in sequential growth of IP
3mma saar(%) Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14
General 5.5 13.7 3.9 (6.3) (9.2)
Mining (8.1) (3.0) 4.5 0.6 9.5
Manufacturing 5.4 17.5 0.9 (8.8) (15.2)
Electricity 22.6 26.7 34.6 6.3 12.3
Basic goods 16.3 10.0 14.3 1.7 12.1
Capital goods 38.1 35.9 86.5 5.6 4.2
Intermediate goods (4.6) 3.1 3.4 4.0 (2.8)
Consumer goods (16.7) 6.5 (14.3) (18.0) (19.5)
Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research
Revision patterns in IP for July 2014
RE QE
Mining 1.2 2.1
Manufacturing (1.0) (1.0)
Electricity 11.7 11.7
Basic goods 7.4 7.6
Capital goods (3.9) (3.8)
Intermediate goods 3.0 2.6
Consumer goods (7.7) (7.4)
General 0.4 0.5
Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research
Trends in India CPI inflation (%)
Weights Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Headline 100.0 7.5 8.0 7.7 6.5
Rural 43.0 7.9 8.4 8.3 6.7
Urban 57.0 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.4
Food, beverages &
tobacco
49.7 8.0 9.1 9.1 7.6
Rural 37.2 8.6 9.6 9.5 8.0
Urban 59.3 6.6 8.3 8.3 7.6
Fuel and light 9.5 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.5
Housing 9.8 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.1
Clothing, bedding &
footwear
4.7 8.6 8.7 8.4 7.6
Miscellaneous 26.3 6.5 6.6 5.9 4.7
Ex food 50.3 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.2
Core (ex-food ex-fuel) 40.8 7.4 7.4 6.8 5.9
Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research
India | Strategy
13 October 2014


India Economics
India Macroclime


2 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 1: Consolidated industrial breakdown (% YoY)
Description Weight FY13 FY14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14
General 100.0 1.1 (0.1) 3.7 5.6 3.9 0.4 0.4
Use based classification



Basic goods 45.7 2.5 2.0 8.6 7.5 10.0 7.4 9.6
Capital goods 8.8 (6.0) (3.7) 13.4 4.2 23.3 (3.9) (11.3)
Intermediate goods 15.7 1.6 3.0 3.0 3.5 2.4 3.0 0.3
Consumer goods 29.8 2.4 (2.6) (4.8) 4.6 (9.7) (7.7) (6.9)
Durables 8.5 2.0 (12.2) (7.7) 3.6 (23.4) (20.9) (15.0)
Non-durables 21.3 2.8 5.2 (2.7) 5.2 0.6 2.4 (0.9)
Sectoral classification



Mining 14.2 (2.3) (0.8) 1.7 2.5 4.5 1.2 2.6
Electricity 10.3 4.0 6.1 11.9 6.7 15.7 11.7 12.9
Manufacturing 75.5 1.3 (0.8) 3.0 5.9 2.5 (1.0) (1.4)
Food products and beverages 7.3 2.9 (1.4) 10.2 9.2 1.8 4.1 8.5
Tobacco products 1.6 (0.4) 1.6 7.9 35.3 (0.9) (11.9) 5.6
Textiles 6.2 5.9 4.1 6.0 7.2 1.5 2.1 (1.7)
Wearing apparel etc. 2.8 10.4 22.6 (22.4) 9.9 (5.8) (7.4) (10.1)
Leather and leather products 0.6 7.3 5.0 5.0 11.3 10.6 4.8 10.9
Wood and products of wood 1.1 (7.1) (2.1) (1.8) 1.6 (6.1) 5.9 4.2
Paper and paper products 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 1.3 3.2 (2.1) 4.4
Publishing, printing etc. 1.1 (5.1) 0.3 (5.3) (5.9) (4.9) (6.9) (6.1)
Coke, refined petroleum products & nuclear fuel 6.7 8.5 5.2 1.4 (3.3) 1.3 (5.0) (4.6)
Chemicals and chemical products 10.1 3.8 8.9 (4.6) 3.9 2.2 6.1 (5.3)
Rubber and plastics products 2.0 0.2 (2.3) (0.8) 1.8 3.6 7.5 5.3
Other non-metallic mineral products 4.3 1.9 1.0 6.3 7.2 9.5 12.0 4.6
Basic metals 11.3 1.9 0.3 14.2 11.8 11.7 12.5 19.1
Fabricated metal products 3.1 (4.7) (7.2) 5.8 4.0 (0.5) (2.2) (9.7)
Machinery and equipment n.e.c. 3.8 (4.7) (4.8) 4.7 8.7 4.7 4.8 5.1
Office, accounting and computing machinery 0.3 (13.9) (15.8) (21.1) (31.5) (60.5) (31.1) (43.9)
Electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c. 2.0 0.6 14.3 65.5 35.0 69.1 (6.2) (17.8)
Radio, TV and communication equipment 1.0 5.6 (27.3) (31.8) (40.3) (62.9) (58.3) (48.8)
Medical, precision and optical instruments 0.6 (2.0) (5.0) (5.5) (0.4) 3.5 (0.8) 1.8
Motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 4.1 (5.3) (9.6) (14.6) (7.3) 7.3 0.4 (2.1)
Other transport equipment 1.8 (0.1) 5.6 6.6 13.9 7.7 17.1 14.3
Furniture; manufacturing n.e.c. 3.0 (5.1) (13.8) (7.6) 61.5 (13.4) (17.3) (0.5)
Source: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research

















India Macroclime

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3 3 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited


Exhibit 2: Detailed breakdown in CPI inflation (All India, unless specified)
Weights FY13 FY14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14
Headline 100 10.2 9.5 7.5 8.0 7.7 6.5
Rural 57.0 10.1 9.6 7.9 8.4 8.3 6.7
Urban 43.0 10.4 9.4 6.8 7.9 8.5 9.4
Food, beverages and tobacco 49.7 11.8 11.1 8.0 9.1 9.1 7.6
Rural 59.3 11.7 11.1 8.6 9.6 9.5 8.0
Urban 37.2 12.1 11.0 6.6 8.3 8.3 7.6
Cereals and products 14.6 10.5 13.2 7.6 7.5 7.3 6.4
Pulses and products 2.7 12.3 4.2 5.2 5.8 6.8 7.2
Oils and fats 3.9 16.6 1.8 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.0
Egg, fish and meat 2.9 12.2 12.1 8.3 7.7 7.7 6.4
Milk and products 7.7 10.5 8.7 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.1
Condiments and spices 1.7 3.1 7.2 8.2 8.7 9.3 8.6
Vegetables 5.4 20.6 26.0 9.1 16.8 15.0 8.6
Fruits 1.9 7.4 11.2 20.6 22.3 24.0 22.4
Sugar etc 1.9 12.4 (0.7) (0.3) 0.8 1.2 0.6
Non-alcoholic beverages 2.0 9.8 9.2 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0
Prepared meals etc 2.8 9.4 9.5 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.3
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants 2.1 10.8 9.2 7.7 8.7 8.8 8.4
Fuel and light 9.5 8.5 7.4 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.5
Rural 10.4 7.9 7.4 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.0
Urban 8.4 9.7 7.3 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.5
Housing 9.8 11.3 10.4 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.1
Urban 22.5 11.3 10.4 9.1 8.9 8.5 8.1
Clothing, bedding and footwear 4.7 10.9 9.3 8.6 8.7 8.4 7.6
Rural 5.4 10.9 9.5 9.4 9.5 9.0 8.1
Urban 3.9 10.9 8.9 7.3 7.2 7.2 6.8
Miscellaneous 26.3 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.6 5.9 4.7
Rural 24.9 7.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.0
Urban 28.0 7.4 7.0 6.2 6.2 5.5 4.2
Medical care 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.4
Education, stationery etc 3.4 7.1 8.2 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.2
Recreation and amusement 1.4 4.2 6.1 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.5
Transport and communication 7.6 6.9 7.0 6.3 5.9 4.7 2.5
Personal care and effects 2.9 7.4 6.5 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.4
Household requisites 4.3 9.0 5.4 6.0 6.5 4.9 3.4
Others 1.1 11.5 11.3 9.8 10.0 9.9 8.9
Ex food 50.3 8.5 7.9 6.9 6.7 6.2 5.2
Core (ex-food ex-fuel) 40.8 8.7 8.0 7.4 7.4 6.8 5.9
Source: CSO, Elara Securities Research

India Macroclime


4 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Industrial Production Chart Book
Exhibit 3: Trends in General IP

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12 month change (LHS) 3mma saar (RHS)

Exhibit 4: Trends in Mining (%) Exhibit 5: Trends in Electricity Production (%)
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Exhibit 6: Trends in Basic Goods (%) Exhibit 7: Trends in Capital Goods (%)
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Exhibit 8: Trends in Intermediate Goods (%) Exhibit 9: Trends in Consumer Goods (%)
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Source of all charts: CSO, MOSPI and Elara Securities Research


Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

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Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
Disclosures & Confidentiality for non U.S. Investors
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information. This Note should not be deemed an indication of the state of affairs of the company nor shall it constitute an
indication that there has been no change in the business or state of affairs of the company since the date of publication of this
Note. The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this document are provided solely to enhance the transparency
and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their family members from maintaining a financial interest in
the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their
securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations
or views expressed in this report.
Any clarifications / queries on the proposal as well as any future communication regarding the proposal should be addressed
to Elara Securities (India) Private Limited / the company.

Disclaimer for non U.S. Investors
The information contained in this note is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any
particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no
guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future.
No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the
particular situation.


Elara Securities (India) Private Limited


6
Disclaimer for U.S. Investors
This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but Elara Capital Inc. does not warrant its
completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such.
This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.
Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed
herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.
Prices, values or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the
investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to
yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.
Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investors currency of reference, changes in
rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The
information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular
investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or
needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before
acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances
and, if necessary, seek professional advice.
Certain statements in this report, including any financial projections, may constitute forward-looking statements. These
forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and are based on numerous current assumptions
that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Actual future performance could differ materially from these
forward-looking statements and financial information.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

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Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
India
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Indiabulls Finance Centre,
Tower 3, 21st Floor,
Senapati Bapat Marg,
Elphinstone Road (West)
Mumbai 400 013, India
Tel : +91 22 3032 8500
Europe
Elara Capital Plc.
29 Marylebone Road,
London NW1 5JX,
United Kingdom
Tel : +4420 7486 9733
USA
Elara Securities Inc.
36W 44th Street, 803,
New York, NY 10036,
USA
Tel :+1-212-430-5870
Asia / Pacific
Elara Capital (Singapore) Pte.Ltd.
30 Raffles Place
#20-03, Chevron House
Singapore 048622
Tel : +65 6536 6267

Harendra Kumar Managing Director harendra.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8571
Vishal Purohit Co-Head Institutional Equities vishal.purohit@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8572
Sales
Amit Mamgain India

amit.mamgain@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8543
Kalpesh Parekh India

kalpesh.parekh@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8513
Nishit Master India

nishit.master@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8521
Prashin Lalvani India

prashin.lalvani@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8544
Sushil Bhojwani India

sushil.bhojwani@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8512
Sales Trading & Dealing

Manan Joshi India

manan.joshi@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8555
Manoj Murarka India

manoj.murarka@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8551
Vishal Thakkar India

vishal.thakker@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8552

Research
Aarthisundari Jayakumar Analyst Pharmaceuticals aarthi.jayakumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8510
Abhinav Bhandari Analyst Construction, Infrastructure abhinav.bhandari@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8507
Aliasgar Shakir Analyst Mid caps, Telecom aliasgar.shakir@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8516
Ashish Kejriwal Analyst Metals & Mining ashish.kejriwal@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8505
Ashish Kumar Economist

ashish.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8536
Aashish Upganlawar Analyst FMCG aashish.upganlawar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8546
Deepak Agrawala Analyst Power, Capital Goods deepak.agrawala@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8523
Mohan Lal Analyst Media , Auto & Auto Ancillaries mohan.lal@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8502
Rakesh Kumar Analyst Banking & Financials rakesh.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8559
Ravi Sodah Analyst Cement ravi.sodah@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8517
Sumant Kumar Analyst Agri, Travel & Hospitality, Paper sumant.kumar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8503
Swarnendu Bhushan Analyst Oil and gas swarnendu.bhushan@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8504
Gaurant Dadwal Sr. Associate Auto & Auto Ancillaries gaurant.dadwal@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8519
Manuj Oberoi Sr. Associate Banking & Financials manuj.oberoi@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8535
Durgesh Poyekar Associate Oil and gas durgesh.poyekar@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8541
Harshit Kapadia Associate Power, Capital Goods harshit.kapadia@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8542
Saiprasad Prabhu Associate FMCG saiprasad.prabhu@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8518
Priyanka Sheth Editor

priyanka.sheth@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8568
Gurunath Parab Production

gurunath.parab@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8515
Jinesh Bhansali Production

jinesh.bhansali@elaracapital.com +91 22 3032 8537
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Elara Securities (India) Private Limited
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