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Enviado por Karthik Arumugham

Artificial Intelligence

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Assignment 3

GROUP 1:

Sl No NAME ROLL NO

1 Ramprakash R 1311113

2 Babu H.L 1311161

3 Sreenath C.P 1311203

4 Karthik Arumugham 1311299

23 AUGUST 2014

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Contents

Q1. Iterated prisoners dilemma (IPD) game ................................................................................................ 3

Q2. Decision Tree from RWEKA package using J48 ...................................................................................... 7

Q3. Genetic Algorithms applied to travelling salesman problem ............................................................... 10

Q4. DEEPNET Training problem .................................................................................................................. 18

Q5. NET Logo problem ................................................................................................................................ 24

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Q1. Iterated prisoners dilemma (IPD) game

The iterated prisoners dilemma (IPD) game is a prisoners dilemma (PD) game played over and

over again. The reinforcement learner for the iterated prisoners dilemma (IPD) game is built

using the Net-logo. This model is a multiplayer version of the iterated prisoner's dilemma. It is

intended to explore the strategic implications that emerge when the world consists entirely of

prisoner's dilemma like interactions. It is a 2-D problem as shown below.

Net-Logo File:

N N N

N A N

N N N

A: Agent

N: Neighbor for the agent A

A) States:

Each one of the cells is an agent and the agent can interact with each one of the neighbors which

are about 8 in number. In each round of play an agent can interact with one of the neighbors. For

the Net logo code implementation, we have considered that an agent can interact with four of its

neighbors.

A

Actions:

Co-operate: always cooperate

Defect: always defect

Other different types of strategies such as Tit-for-Tat, unforgiving, random, etc could also be

modelled for increased complexity of the problem.

The strategy which yields better pay-offs will get replicated. To do this each agent keeps track of

the pay-offs history, say pay-offs in the last ten iterations. The agents would compare the pay-

offs in these last ten iterations with each other and then decide to switch to the better strategy.

Higher the history length, better will be the pay-offs. The twin strategy is shown as below,

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C

C C D

D

C: Co-operate

D: Defect

Reward (Pay-off Matrix):

Neighbors Action

A

g

e

n

t

s

A

c

t

i

o

n

C D

C 3 0

D 4 1

(C = Cooperate, D = Defect)

Since the IPD is a symmetric game, the rewards are same for both the agent and the partner. The

pay-offs are with respect to the decisions taken by the agent and the partner. For example when

they both co-operate, the pay-offs would be 3. When they both defect, the pay-offs would be 1.

Similarly if the process is iterated for say 10 times with a pay-off history length of 10, the total

pay-off would be sum of all the 10 individual pay-offs. So the plan to switch strategies is based

on the option which yields higher returns.

Interface:

Setup: Setup the world to begin playing the multi-person iterated prisoner's dilemma. One of the

patches is set to defect (red) at the start

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Go once: The agents walk around the world and interact by taking only one step.

Go (loop): The agents walk around the world and interact continuously.

Sliders: This determines the last x number of pay-offs to be considered to take the next decision.

Plots:

There are 1200 patches which can take red/green

Total Payoff: The total payoff is a good indicator of how well a strategy is doing

Population: Numbers of Co-operate and Defects

Output Plots:

History-length: 1

Observation: Converges to all defects with pay-off of 1. The total pay-off reduces to 1200.

History-length: 10

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Observation: The number of defects keep increasing, reducing the total pay-off

History-length: 50

Observation: Maximum co-operate strategy. The total pay-off remains near the optimal 3600

points.

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Q2. Decision Tree from RWEKA package using J48

USING THE J48 FUNCTION TO CREATE DECISION TREE FROM RWEKA

PACKAGE IN R AND OBTAINING TREE WITH LOWEST ERROR VALUE

Step 1: Splitting the dataset into training and test sets

Import the transfusion data into R.

The variables in the transfusion data have been renamed as follows:

>colnames(transfusion)<-c("recency","frequency","monetary","time","donation")

20% of the dataset shall be used as test set.

smp_size <- floor(0.8 * nrow(transfusion))

train_ind <- sample(seq_len(nrow(transfusion)), size = smp_size)

This will create a vector of random numbers of length equal to 20% of the number of rows.

Let us define two dataframes, train and test for the training and testing data sets respectively.

Data is split using the following commands.

train <- transfusion[train_ind, ]

test <- transfusion[-train_ind, ]

Step 2: Constructing the decision tree

The J48 function in the RWeka package is used to construct the decision tree as follows:

tree<-

J48(donation~recency+frequency+monetary+time,data=train,control=Weka_control(R=T

RUE,A=TRUE,M=5,N=10))

evaluate_Weka_classifier(tree,numFolds=100,cost=matrix(c(0,14,10,0),ncol=2),seed=12

3,class=TRUE)

submit<-predict(tree,newdata=test)

After the results are obtained the output is saved as:

write.csv(submit,file="pred1.csv",row.names=FALSE)

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Step 3: Calculating the accuracy of the results in the decision tree

The results contain the last column Donation. This is compared with the original column in the

test data and the result accuracy is obtained

Parameter values used: M-5, N-10, Cost matrix(c(0,14,10,0),ncol=2), numFold = 100

Test set data:

Number of 0s = 122

Number of 1s = 38

Net No. of 0s

correctly

predicted

No. of 1s

correctly

predicted

%

Accuracy

(0s)

%

Accuracy

(1s)

No. of

correctly

predicted

values

%

Accuracy

(Overall)

150 105 3 93.75 7.894737 108 72

Step 4: Change parameter values and recalculate accuracy

Changing the parameter values and running the code for J48 decision tree to

M-15, N-20, cost=matrix(c(0,10,14,0),ncol=2), numFolds=80

Calculating accuracy:

Net No. of 0s

correctly

predicted

No. of 1s

correctly

predicted

%

Accuracy

(0s)

%

Accuracy

(1s)

No. of

correctly

predicted

values

%

Accuracy

(Overall)

150 111 2 99.10714 5.263158 113 75.33333

Step 5: Repeat this step for more number of times and recalculate accuracy

Total Values (actual) 150

No. of 0s (actual) 112

No. of 1s (actual) 38

Net

No. of 0s

correctly

predicted

No. of 1s

correctly

predicted

% Accuracy

(0s)

% Accuracy

(1s)

No. of correctly

predicted values

% Accuracy

(Overall)

1 105 3 94% 8% 108 72%

2 111 2 99% 5% 113 75%

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3 112 0 100% 0% 112 75%

4 112 0 100% 0% 112 75%

5 110 8 98% 21% 118 79%

Step 6: Comparing with previous training results

Comparing with the results from the neural network training in the previous assignment, this

method seems to provide more accurate results

From 2

nd

assignment:

Net

No. of 0s

correctly

predicted

No. of 1s

correctly

predicted

% Accuracy

(0s)

% Accuracy

(1s)

No. of correctly

predicted values

% Accuracy

(Overall)

1 104 8 95% 20% 112 75%

2 104 8 95% 20% 112 75%

3 104 8 95% 20% 112 75%

4 104 8 95% 20% 112 75%

As seen from this the highest accuracy seems to be 75%, whereas 79% accuracy is obtained

using the decision trees.

Overall results:

Test Output.xlsx

R Code:

Transfusion data:

transfusion.csv

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Q3. Genetic Algorithms applied to travelling salesman problem

For implementing Genetic Algorithm to solve the travelling salesman problem, we have chosen

Srilanka and the distance between the chosen 20 cities is appended below as a .CSV file.

Reciprocal of Tour length is used as the Fitness function.

group1.csv

R File

SETTING SEED VALUE:

To replicate the results of a GA search, throughout the experiment, seed was maintained as

123.Seed is the integer value containing the random number generator state

MODEL 1:

Parameter values for this model have been set as follows:

Population size =50

Cross over probability = 0.8

Mutation probability = 0.20

Elitism = 2 # the number of best fitness individuals to survive at each generation

Tour length of our First model was calculated using the following command:

apply(GA@solution, 1, tourLength, G) # G is the distance matrix

Tour length of our First model is: 1630

Summary of the GA gave was printed using the following command:

summary (GA)

-----------------------------------+

| Genetic Algorithm |

+-----------------------------------+

GA settings:

Type = permutation

Population size = 50

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Number of generations = 5000

Elitism = 2

Crossover probability = 0.8

Mutation probability = 0.2

GA results:

Iterations = 627

Fitness function value = 0.0006365372

Solutions =

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20

x21

[1,] 12 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 16 15 13 20 7 4 5 3 9 10 17 2

6

[2,] 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20 13 15 16 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12

6

[3,] 9 3 5 4 7 20 13 15 16 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17

10

Representation of the tour is shown below:

MODEL 2

In our second model, we have set the parameter values as follows:

Population size = 100

Cross over probability = 0.90

Mutation probability = 0.05

Elitism = 5 # the number of best fitness individuals to survive at each generation

Summary of Model 2 is shown below:

+-----------------------------------+

| Genetic Algorithm |

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+-----------------------------------+

GA settings:

Type = permutation

Population size = 100

Number of generations = 5000

Elitism = 5

Crossover probability = 0.9

Mutation probability = 0.05

GA results:

Iterations = 648

Fitness function value = 0.0006188119

Solutions =

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20

x21

[1,] 14 11 21 8 10 4 5 3 9 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 7 19 1

18

[2,] 14 11 21 8 10 5 4 3 9 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 7 19 1

18

[3,] 18 14 11 21 8 10 4 5 3 9 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 7 19

1

[4,] 1 18 14 11 21 8 10 5 4 3 9 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 7

19

[5,] 18 14 11 21 8 10 5 4 3 9 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 7 19

1

Tour Length for Model 2: 1616

Representation of Tour per MODEL 2:

MODEL 3:

Parameter values for this model are as follows:

Population size = 200

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Cross over probability = 0.90

Mutation probability = 0.05

Elitism = 5 # the number of best fitness individuals to survive at each generation

Summary of Model 3 is shown below:

+-----------------------------------+

| Genetic Algorithm |

+-----------------------------------+

GA settings:

Type = permutation

Population size = 200

Number of generations = 5000

Elitism = 5

Crossover probability = 0.9

Mutation probability = 0.05

GA results:

Iterations = 557

Fitness function value = 0.0006253909

Solutions =

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20 x21

[1,] 13 16 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 15 20

[2,] 20 15 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 16 13

[3,] 16 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 15 20 13

[4,] 6 15 20 13 16 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12

[5,] 20 13 16 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 15

TOUR LENGTH FOR MODEL 3: 1690

Representation of the tour is shown below

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MODEL 4:

Parameter values for this model are as follows:

Population size = 200

Cross over probability = 0.95

Mutation probability = 0.1

Elitism = 5 # the number of best fitness individuals to survive at each generation

Summary of Model 4 is shown below:

+-----------------------------------+

| Genetic Algorithm |

+-----------------------------------+

GA settings:

Type = permutation

Population size = 200

Number of generations = 5000

Elitism = 5

Crossover probability = 0.95

Mutation probability = 0.1

GA results:

Iterations = 1296

Fitness function value = 0.0006365372

Solutions =

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20

x21

[1,] 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20 13 15

16

[2,] 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20 13 15 16

19

[3,] 16 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20 13

15

[4,] 15 16 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20

13

[5,] 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20 13 15 16 19 1

18

[6,] 13 15 16 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7

20

[7,] 18 14 11 21 8 12 6 2 17 10 9 3 5 4 7 20 13 15 16 19

1

TOUR LENGTH FOR MODEL 4: 1630

Representation of the tour is as follows:

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MODEL 5:

Parameter values for this model are as follows:

Population size = 300

Cross over probability = 0.99

Mutation probability = 0.3

Elitism = 7 # the number of best fitness individuals to survive at each generation

Summary of Model 5 is shown below:

+-----------------------------------+

| Genetic Algorithm |

+-----------------------------------+

GA settings:

Type = permutation

Population size = 300

Number of generations = 5000

Elitism = 7

Crossover probability = 0.99

Mutation probability = 0.3

GA results:

Iterations = 1625

Fitness function value = 0.0006365372

Solutions =

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20

x21

[1,] 19 16 15 13 20 7 4 5 3 9 10 17 2 6 12 8 21 11 14 18

1

[2,] 5 3 9 10 17 2 6 12 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 16 15 13 20 7

4

[3,] 3 9 10 17 2 6 12 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 16 15 13 20 7 4

5

[4,] 14 18 1 19 16 15 13 20 7 4 5 3 9 10 17 2 6 12 8 21

11

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[5,] 10 17 2 6 12 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 16 15 13 20 7 4 5 3

9

[6,] 10 17 2 6 12 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 20 13 15 16 7 4 5 3

9

[7,] 2 6 12 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 16 15 13 20 7 4 5 3 9 10

17

TOUR LENGTH FOR MODEL 5: 1571

Representation of the Tour is as follows:

MODEL 6:

Parameter values for this model are as follows:

Population size = 50

Cross over probability = 0.7

Mutation probability = 0.1

Elitism = 3 # the number of best fitness individuals to survive at each generation

Summary of Model 6 is shown below:

+-----------------------------------+

| Genetic Algorithm |

+-----------------------------------+

GA settings:

Type = permutation

Population size = 50

Number of generations = 5000

Elitism = 3

Crossover probability = 0.7

Mutation probability = 0.1

GA results:

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Iterations = 611

Fitness function value = 0.0006024096

Solutions =

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20

x21

[1,] 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 10 17 2 12 6 15 16 20 13 9 3 5

4

[2,] 7 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 10 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 9 3 5

4

[3,] 5 3 9 13 20 16 15 6 12 2 17 10 8 21 11 14 18 1 19 7

4

[4,] 19 1 18 14 11 21 8 10 17 2 12 6 15 16 13 20 9 3 5 4

7

TOUR LENGTH FOR MODEL 6: 1586

Representation of the Tour is as follows:

SUMMARY OF RESULTS:

POPULATION

CROSSOVER

PROBABILITY

MUTATION

PROBABILITY ELITISM TOUR LENGTH

MODEL 1 50 0.8 0.2 2 1630

MODEL 2 100 0.9 0.05 5 1616

MODEL 3 200 0.9 0.05 5 1690

MODEL 4 200 0.95 0.1 5 1630

MODEL 5 300 0.99 0.3 7 1571

MODEL 6 50 0.7 0.1 3 1586

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OBSERVATIONS & CONCLUSION:

1. Model 5 gives the shortest tour with a tour length of 1571

2. From Models 2 & 3, we could see that, everything else remaining same, an increase in

population increased the tour length.

3. Further, improvements in Tour length were observed as cross over probability was

increased.

4. Proper tuning of these two factors (Crossover probability and Population) can work well

to improve the performance of the Genetic Algorithm models.

5. Almost similar models, Model 1 and 6 shows that a decrease in Mutation probability and

increase in the number of survivors at each generation (Elitism) improves results.

Q4. DEEPNET Training problem

1. Transfusion data:

STEP 1 : Uploading data & Defining variables:

STEP 2: SPLITTING INTO TRAIN & TEST SETS (80/20:

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STEP 3: Uploading data & Defining variables:

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STEP 4: TRAINING & TEST ACCURACY:

STEP 5: PREDICTION USING THE TRAINED ENSEMBLE:

The test data set was applied to the trained ensemble and the confusion matrix is shown below:

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OBSERVATIONS:

1. As we could see, the deep net is good in predicting Zeros and not ones.

2. One reason for this behaviour could be the highly skewed number of Zeros and Ones in the test

data set (1:9)

3. Deep nets are particularly suitable for complex data sets with very high number of variables and

could potentially lead to errors when used on a small dataset that doesnt have enough number

of observations in both the classes.

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2. TURKISH stock data:

Data preprocessing:

The stockdata was rearranged to match the format of ERSATZ. Date and ISE(TL based) was removed

since we will be using the ISE (USD based).

ERSATZ considers the last column as the dependent variable and the same has been done. Final data

uploaded in the system is appended below:

data_akbilgic.csv

Screenshots of ERSATZ is shown step by step:

Step 1: UPLOADING DATA

STEP 2 : SPLITTING INTO TRAINING AND TEST DATASETS

In this step, the stock data is split into training and test sets in the ratio of 4:1 (80% Train, 20% Test)

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STEP 3 : CREATING ENSEMBLE

We faced problem in this step as the system repeatedly gave errors.

Since the ERSATZ system has worked for our previous data, we presume the following to be the reasons

for this:

Non-integers and negative integers in the dependent variable

Too many classes in the dependent variable

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Q5. NET Logo problem

Extend the model to show what happens when a third technology enters the fray and is

selected by users based on either affinity or neighbors?

Existing technologies are Red and Blue.

Let the third technology be Green.

As given in the problem, user choice depends on either affinity towards technology or choice of

the neighbors. These choices are calibrated based on the slider button which gives division of

percentage.

Addition of a new technology called Green should also follow the same principles described

above. Hence required code changes are done in the attached NetLogo model file.

Initially logic based on assumption that Red =1 and Blue = -1,

If (sum of values of neighbors is > 0) then set the color of current patch to Red

If (sum of values of neighbors is < 0) then set the color of current patch to Blue

To accommodate the new technology Green, the new logic has extra condition of,

Red =1, Blue =0, Green = -1

If (sum of values of neighbors is > 0) then set the color of current patch to Red

If (sum of values of neighbors is < 0) then set the color of current patch to Green

If (sum of values of neighbors is = 0) then set the color of current patch to Blue

Logic: For a given Green patch, the count of neighbors,

If Number of Red > Number of Green, then set the color to Red

If Number of Green > Number of Red, then set the color to Green

If Number of Red = Number of Green or Number of Blue is highest, then set the color to Blue

Hence, in new model there will be three-way competition among all the three technologies with

equal probability based on the Initial-Adoption and Neighbor-Affinity settings.

Observation: Three mobile operating systems, Android, Windows and iOS.

For a given Neighbor Affinity the fraction of population or market share remains same after few

ticks. Hence no major changes observed in market share after few ticks. We attribute this

phenomenon to market competitiveness of all the three organizations.

But if we change the Neighbor Affinity in between the run, there is a trend of substantial change

in market share and lines will cross to reverse the dominance in market too.

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What happens when there is negative publicity for a technology? How can this be modeled

in a neighborhood?

When there is a negative feedback, highly used technology by neighbors will have negative

impact on the given patch.

To accommodate the new technology Green with negative feedback, the new logic has

conditions as,

If (sum of values of neighbors is > 0) then set the color of current patch to Green

If (sum of values of neighbors is < 0) then set the color of current patch to Red

If (sum of values of neighbors is = 0) then set the color of current patch to randomly to

any of the three colors.

Note: If number of Red = Number of Green, then we are not sure of superior technology. Hence

we will assign random color to this patch.

Logic: For a given Green patch, the count of neighbors,

If Number of Red > Number of Green, then set the color to Green

If Number of Green > Number of Red, then set the color to Red

If Number of Red = Number of Blue or Number of Green is highest, then set the color

randomly

Hence, in new model there will be three-way competition among all the three technologies to

decrease its presence with equal probability based on the Initial-Adoption and Neighbor-Affinity

settings.

Observation: Three mobile operating systems, Android, Windows and iOS.

For a given Neighbor Affinity the fraction of population or market share remains same after few

ticks. Hence no major changes observed in market share after few ticks. We attribute this

phenomenon to market competitiveness of all the three organizations.

But if we change the Neighbor Affinity in between the run, there is a trend of substantial change

in market. Rich will become poor and poor becomes Richer. Hence weaker technology has

high chances of increasing market share

Net-logo files:

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