Name___________KEY___________________________

Sampling and Simulation Review

1. To survey the opinions of bleacher fans at Wrigley Field, a surveyor plans to select every one-hundredth fan
entering the bleachers one afternoon. Will this result in a simple rand sample of Cub fans that sit in the
bleachers? Explain your answer.

NO this is an example of Systematic sampling, which does not result in s SRS because it does not allow equal
probability for everyone in the sample (think about the 99
th
person, they never had a shot)

2. What fault do all these sampling designs have in common?
a) The Wall Street Journal plans to make a prediction for a presidential election based on a survey of its readers.
b) A radio talk show asks people to phone in their views on whether the United States should pay off its huge debt
to the United Nations.
c) A police detective, interested in determining the extent of drug use by teenagers, randomly picks a sample of
high school students and interviews each one about any illegal drug use by the student during the past year.

All have bias present. Selection Bias, Non-Response, Response Bias, Volunteer Bias

3. To conduct a survey of long-distance calling patterns, a researchers opens a telephone book to a random page,
closes his eyes, puts his finger down on the page, and then reads off the next 50 names. Which of the following
are true statements? If a statement is false, explain why.

a) The survey design incorporates chance. True (because there is a random element)
b) The procedure results in a simple random sample. No this is a Clucter Sample
c) The procedure could easily result in selection bias. True (because there are certain groups that are not selected
to be considered for the sample)

4. A large elementary school has 15 classrooms, with 24 children in each classroom. A sample of 30 children is
chosen by the following procedure. Each of the 15 teachers selects 2 children from his or her classroom to be the
sample by numbering the children from 1 to 24, then using a random number table to select two different random
numbers from 01 to 24. The 2 children with those numbers are the sample. Did this procedure give a simple random
sample of 30 children from the elementary school?

No, this is a Stratified Sample. To be SRS you would not have each teacher choose 2. You would choose your
30 from the entire school, no matter the classroom.

5. For which of the following purposes would it be most unreasonable to use a census? Explain why.
a) To determine the proportion of students with a learning disability in a small rural high school
b) To determine the proportion of red snappers with a high mercury level in the Gulf of Mexico
c) determine the difference between the proportion of engineering professors and the proportion of business
professor in favor of new teaching initiatives at a large university
d) To determine the mean wage earned by construction workers in a small town
e) To determine the mean selling price of houses in your neighborhood.
It is too hard to get the ENTIRE population of red snappers. Remember a census is taking the entire population of
interest.



6. If a publisher of a magazine takes a sample of her subscribers by sending questionnaires to all subscribers
whose names begin with O' (as in O'Neill), the publisher has taken. Justify your answer by giving reasons to
eliminate wrong answers.
a) a stratified sample of her subscribers No, if the strata is last names alphabetically, then stratified she would
take a percentage of the same amount from each letter, not just one
b) a simple random sample of her subscribers No, not all names had an equal chance
c) a cluster sample of her subscribers True

7. Suppose that a number of crates of pencils is chosen at random from a boxcar of crates, and then a number of
boxes of pencils is chosen at random from each selected crate. Our goal is to determine the number of defective
pencils in a box. This is an example of what type of sampling design? Explain

Stratified Sample. The homogeneous stratas are the crates and you are selecting a certain amount from EACH strata.

8. The state would like to evaluate the usefulness of a program to randomly test high school athletes for steroid use. Initially, a
state agency will test athletes in all 20 schools in Fort Worth, randomly selecting 3 athletes from each school. Is this a simple
random sample of student athletes in Fort Worth?
No, in SRS every possible group of size n has an equal opportunity to be selected for the sample. This is an example of a
stratified sample. Here we are stratifying by school and then randomizing by selecting the 3 athletes from each school.

9. For the following decide which scenario does not contain a bias, by stating why the other scenarios
contain a bias.

a) A legislator wishes to know how his district feels about a particular issue. As a result, his office e-
mails a long, detailed survey about the issue to a random sample of adults in his district.
Selection and Non-response bias; only those constituents with emails will be included in the sample. Since
the survey is long people may not fill it out.
b) A polling organization uses the telephone directory to randomly select adults for a telephone survey
to obtain opinions on the current president.
Selection bias; Only those with telephones will be reached.
c) All 250 students at a review session are given numbered tickets. Five numbers are chosen randomly,
and the individuals with the winning ticket numbers each win a $10 gift card.
d) A news show asks viewers to call a toll-free number to express their opinions about their choice for
president.
Volunteer bias; only those with strong opinions will call in and participate.
e) A teacher asks high school students how often they drink alcohol.
Response bias; Because this is a sensitive subject, students may not respond truthfully to the teacher
asking the question.

9. A basketball player has consistently made only 60% of his free throws over several seasons. On
average, how many free throws must this player attempt before he makes four in a row?



4 4 8 6 4 0 3 8 3 8 3 5 9 5 9 4 8 3 9 4 1 6 3 9 4 1 3 2 1 1 8 5 6 3 4

1 9 3 1 7 7 3 1 5 6 6 5 0 3 5 3 7 2 8 6 2 4 1 8 7 9 4 0 4 7 5 3 2 8 7

2 7 4 9 3 9 6 5 5 6 2 5 6 6 3 7 0 6 5 6 9 0 1 9 5 2 6 9 1 2 7 7 6 6 4

5 4 4 8 4 4 0 3 9 8 5 2 0 2 3


I will simulate throwing free throws. I will select numbers where:


I will start at Row #1 and randomly throw free throws until I have made 4 shots in a row. I will perform 5 trials. I
will record the number of shots needed to make 4 free throws in a row. I will then calculate the average number
of free throws that need to be shot for the player to make 5 free throws in a row.

Trial # of Shots thrown to make 4 free throws in a row
1 7
2 16
3 5
4 8
5 9

Avg: 9

It will take an average of 9 free throws for the player to make 4 free throws in a row.

1-6: Make the Free Throw
7-9,0: Miss the Free Throw
Start
Row 1
1998 Question 6
The manager of a cultured pearl farm has received a special order for two pearls between 7 millimeters and 9
millimeters in diameter. From past experience, the manger knows that the pearls found in his oyster bed have
diameters that are normally distributed with a mean of 8 millimeters and a standard deviation of 1.5 millimeters.
Assume that every oyster contains one pearl.

The manger wants to know how many oysters he should expect to open to find two pearls of the appropriate size
for this special order. Complete the following parts to design a simulation to answer the mangers question.
(a) Determine the probability of finding a pearl of the appropriate size in an oyster selected at random. (Express
this probability as a number between 0 and 1. Round this probability to the nearest tenth.) (Hint: Use your
calculator to find the probability of finding how many pearls will fall between 7 and 9 millimeters in diameter.)
(b) Describe how you would use a table of random digits to carry out a simulation to determine the number of
oysters needed to find two pearls of the appropriate size. Include a description of what each of the digits 0, 1,
2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 will represent in your simulation.
(c) Perform your simulation 3 times. (That is, run 3 trials of your simulation.) Start at the left most digit in the
first row of the table and move across. Make your procedure clear so that someone can follow what you did.
You must do this by marking directly on or above the table.

48747 76595 32|588 383|92 8442|2 80016 37890

71950 22494 00369 61269 87073 73694 97751

17857 52352 21392 22930 43776 10503 58249

80993 52010 88856 23882 73613 57648 47051

63016 73572 22684 02409 37565 52457 01257

40615 63910 09596 10241 03413 77576 74872

57431 29251 77848 98037 81230 38561 69580

06181 97842 48327 37976 81333 10264 77769

X~N(8, 1.5) P(7 < X <9) = P(-0.5 < Z < 0.5) = 0.3830, round the probability to 0.40.

The number will simulate the opening of an oyster. Assign the digits 0-3 to represent a pearl of desired size. 4-9
will represent a pearl of an unwanted size. We are looking for the number of oysters that must be open until two
pearls are found of desired size
|stop| oyster of desired size

Starting at Row 1
Trial Result Response
1 4,8,7,4,7,7,6,5,9,5,3,2 12
2 5,8,8,3,8,3 6
3 9,2,8,4,4,2 6

On average from our simulation we would have to open 8 oysters to find pearls of the desired size.





2005
A survey will be conducted to examine the education level of adult heads of households in the United States. Each
respondent in the survey will be placed into one of the following two categories.
Does not have a high school diploma
Has a high school diploma
The survey will be conducted using a telephone interview. Random-digit dialing will be used to select the sample.
a) For this survey, state one potential source of bias and describe how it might affect the estimate of the
proportion of adult heads of households in the United States who do not have a high school diploma.
Since random-digit dialing will be used, individuals without phones will not be included in the sample. People without
a high school diploma are more likely to have lower-paying jobs and therefore may not be able to afford a
telephone. Thus, the estimated proportion of adult heads of households in the US without a high school diploma
may be less than the true population proportion.
b) Since education is largely the responsibility of each state, the agency wants to be sure that estimates are
available for each state as well as for the nation. Identify a sampling method that will achieve this additional goal
and briefly describe a way to select the survey sample using this method.
To achieve this additional goal, the agency should use stratified random sampling by taking samples within each
state. Each state would be a stratum. Within each state, a random sample of adult heads of households would be
selected and surveyed. The sample size within each state will be based on the desired precision. Data from the
individual states should be combined to obtain the national estimate.
2004 Form (B)
At a certain university, students who live in the dormitories eat at a common dining hall. Recently, some
students have been complaining about the quality of the food there. The dining hall manager decided to do a
survey to estimate the proportion of students living in the dormitories who think that the quality of the food
should be improved. One evening, the manager asked the first 100 students entering the dining hall to answer the
following question.






(a) In this setting, explain how bias may have been introduced based on the way this convenience sample was
selected and suggest how the sample could have been selected differently to avoid that bias.
Since the manager used a convenience sample (the first 100 students entering the cafeteria), bias may have been
introduced. Students who arrive at the cafeteria early may be have opinions of food quality that differ in some
important way from other students who live in the dormitories.

This bias could be avoided by selecting a random sample of 100 dormitory residents instead of just asking the first
100 students entering the cafeteria.

(b) In this setting, explain how bias may have been introduced based on the way the question was worded and
suggest how it could have been worded differently to avoid that bias.
The way the question is worded may be leading. The first part of the question included a statement that many
students think the food needs improvement. This may lead people to support this view by responding that the food
does need improvement.

The inclusion of the phrase even though that would increase the cost of the meal plan may lead students to say
the food is OK only because they do not want to pay more.

Many students believe that the food served in the dining hall needs improvement. Do you
think that the quality of food served here needs improvement, even though that would
increase the cost of the meal plan?
______Yes _________No ________No Opinion
A better working might be to simply ask, Do you think that the quality of the food served in the cafeteria needs
improvement?