An argument for Divine Providence, taken from the constant

Regularity observ'd in the Births of both Sexes

By Dr. ohn Arbuthnott,
Physitian in !rdinary to "er #a$esty, and %ello& of the 'ollege of Physitians and the Royal Society.
%rom Phil. (rans. )*+*,- .+, */012,
%ac simile de l'article original communi3u4 5ar #. ean1ac3ues Droesebeke.
(ranscri5tion 5ar 6lisabeth #illet.
7*/08
A#!9: innumerable %ootste5s of Divine Providence to be found in the ;orks of 9ature, there is a
very remarkable one to be observed in the exact Ballance that is maintained, bet&een the 9umbers
of #en and ;omen < for by this means it is 5rovided, that the S5ecies may never fail, nor 5erish,
since every #ale may have its %emale, and of a 5ro5ortionable Age. (his 63uality of #ales and
%emales is not the 6ffect of 'hance but Divine Providence, &orking for a good 6nd, &hich = thus
demonstrate>
?et there be a Die of (&o sides, # and %, )&hich denote 'ross and Pile-, no& to find all the
'hances of any determinate 9umber of such Dice, let the Binome #@% be raised to the Po&er,
&hose 6x5onent is the 9umber of Dice given< the coefficients of the (erms &ill she& all the
'hances sought. %or 6xam5le, in (&o Dice of (&o sides #@% the 'hances are #
.
@.#%@%
.
, that is,
!ne 'hance for # double, !ne for % double, and (&o for # single and % single< in %our such Dice
there are 'hances #
A
@A#
B
%@0#
.
%
.
@A#%
B
@%
A
, that is, !ne chance for # 3uadru5le, !ne for %
3uadru5le, %our for tri5le # and single %, %our for single # and tri5le %, and Six for # double and %
double < and universally, if the 9umber of Dice be n, all their 'hances &ill be ex5ressed in this
Series 7*/+8 #
n
@
n
C
*
#
n1*
%@
n
C
*
x
n1
D x #
n1.
%
.
@
n
C
*
x
n1
D x
n1.
C
B
#
n1B
%
B
@,Ec.
=t a55ears 5lainly, that &hen the 9umber of Dice is even there are as many #'s as %'s in the middle
(erm of this Series, and in all the other (erms there are most #'s or most %'s.
=f therefore a #an undertake &ith an even 9umber of Dice to thro& as many #'s and %'s, he has all
the (erms but the middle (erm against him< and his ?ot is to the Sum of all the 'hances, as the
coefficient of the middle (erm is to the Po&er of . raised to an ex 5onent e3ual to the 9umber of
Dice> so in (&o Dice his ?ot is
.
C
A
or
*
C
.
, in (hree Dice
0
C
*0
or
B
C
/
, in Six Dice
.,
C
0A
or
F
C
*0
, in 6ight
+,
C
.F0
or
BF
C
*./
, Ec.
(o find this middle (erm in any given Po&er or 9umber of Dice, continue the Series
n
C
*
x
n1*
C
.
x
n1
.
C
B
, Ec. till the number of terms are e3ual to Dn. %or 6xam5le, the coefficient of the middle (erm of
the tenth Po&er is
*,
C
*
x
2
C
.
x
/
C
B
x
+
C
A
x
0
C
F
G .F., the tenth Po&er of . is *,.A, if therefore A under
takes to thro& &ith (en Dice in one thro& an e3ual number of #'s and %'s, he has .F. 'hances out
of *,.A for him, that is the ?ot is
.F.
C
*,.A
or
0B
C
.F0
, &hich is less than H.
=t &ill be easy by the hel5 of ?ogarithms, to extend this 'alculation to a very great 9umber, but that
is not my 5resent Design. =t is visible from &hat has been said, that &ith a very great 9umber of
Dice, A's ?ot &ould become very small< and conse3uently )su55osing # to denote #ale and %
%emale- that in the vast 9umber of #ortals, there &ould be but a small 5art of all the 5ossible
'hances, for its ha55ening at any assignable time, that an e3ual 9umber of #ales and %emales
should be born.
=t is indeed to be confessed that this e3uality of #ales and %emales is not #athematical but Pysical,
&hich al ters much the foregoing 'alculation< for in this 'ase 7*//8 the middle (erm &ill not exactly
give A's 'hances, but his 'hances &ill take in some of the (erms next the middle one, and &ill lean
to one side or the other. But it is very im5robable )if mere 'hance govern'd- that they &ould never
reach as far as the 6xtremities> But this 6vent is &isely 5revented by the &ise !economy of 9ature<
and to $udge of the &isdom of the 'ontrivance, &e must observe that the external Accidents to
&hich #ales are sub$ect )&ho must seek their %ood &ith danger- do make a great havock of them,
and that this loss exceeds far that of the other Sex, occasioned by Diseases incident to it, as
6x5erience convinces us. (o re5air that ?oss, 5rovident 9ature, by the Dis5osal of its &ise 'reator,
brings forth more #ales than %emales< and that in almost a constant 5ro5ortion. (his a55ears from
the annexed (ables, &hich contain !bservations for /. Iears of the Births in ?ondon. 9o& to
reduce the ;hole to a 'alculation, = 5ro5ose this.
Problem. A lays against B, that every Iear there shall be born more #ales than %emales. (o find
A's ?ot, or the Jalue of his 6x5ectation.
=t is evident from &hat has been said, that A's ?ot for each Iear is less than D < )but that the
Argument may be stronger- let his lot be e3ual to D for one Iear. =f he undertakes to do the same
thing /. times running, his lot &ill be D
/.
, &hich &ill be found easily by the (able of ?ogarithms to
be H
/B0, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,, ,,,,
. But if A &ager &ith B, not only that the 9umber of #ales shall
exceed that of %emales, every Iear, but that this 6xcess shall ha55en in a constant Pro5ortion, and
the Difference lye &ithin fix'd limits< and this not only for /. Iears, but for Ages of Ages, and not
only at ?ondon, but all over the ;orld< )&hich 'tis highly 5robable in %act, and designed that every
#ale may have a %emale of the same 'ountry and suitable Age- then A's 'hance &ill be near an
infinitely small Kuantity, at least 7*/28 less than any assignable %raction. %rom &hence it follo&s,
that it is Art, not 'hance, that governs.
(here seems no more 5robable 'ause to be assigned in Physicks for this 63uality of the Births,
than that in our first Parents Seed there &ere at first formed an e3ual 9umber of both Sexes.
Scholium. %rom hence it follo&s, that Polygamy is contrary to the ?a& of 9ature and ustice, and to
the Pro5agation of "uman Race< for &here #ales and %emales are in e3ual number, if one #an
takes (&enty ;ives, 9ineteen #en must live in 'elibacy, &hich is re5ugnant to the Design of
9ature< nor is it 5robable than (&enty ;omen &ill be so &ell im5regnated by one #an as by
(&enty.
'hristened. 'hristened.
Anno. #ales %emales.
*0.2 F.*/ A0/B
B, A/F/ AAF+
B* AA.. A*,.
B. A22A AF2,
BB F*F/ A/B2
BA F,BF A/.,
BF F*,0 A2./
B0 A2*+ A0,F
B+ A+,B AAF+
B/ FBF2 A2F.
B2 FB00 A+/A
A, FF*/ FBB.
A* FA+, F.,,
A. FA0, A2*,
AB A+2B A0*+
AA A*,+ B22+
AF A,A+ B2*2
A0 B+0/ BB2F
A+ B+20 BFB0
Anno. #ales %emales.
*0A/ BB0B B*/*
A2 B,+2 .+A0
F, ./2, .+..
F* B.B* ./A,
F. B.., .2,/
FB B*20 .2F2
FA BAA* B*+2
FF B0FF BBA2
F0 B00/ BB/.
F+ BB20 B./2
F/ B*F+ B,*B
F2 B.,2 .+/*
0, B+.A B.A+
0* A+A/ A*,+
0. F.*0 A/.B
0B FA** A//*
0A 0,A* F0/*
0F F**A A/F/
00 A0+/ AB*2
7*2,8
'hristened. 'hristened.
Anno. #ales %emales.
*00+ F0*0 FB..
0/ 0,+B FF0,
02 0F,0 F/.2
+, 0.+/ F+*2
+* 0AA2 0,0*
+. 0AAB 0*.,
+B 0,+B F/..
+A 0**B F+B/
+F 0,F/ F+*+
+0 0FF. F/A+
++ 0A.B 0.,B
+/ 0F0/ 0,BB
+2 0.A+ 0,A*
/, 0FA/ 0.22
/* 0/.. 0FBB
/. 02,2 0+AA
/B +F++ +*F/
/A +F+F +*.+
/F +A/A +.A0
/0 +F+F +**2
/+ ++B+ +.*A
// +A/+ +*,*
Anno. #ales %emales.
*0/2 +0,* +*0+
2, +2,2 +B,.
2* +00. +B2.
2. +0,. +B*0
2B +0+0 +A/B
2A 02/F 00A+
2F +.0B 0+*B
20 +0B. +..2
2+ /,0. ++0+
2/ /A.0 +0.0
22 +2** +AF.
*+,, +F+/ +,0*
*+,* /*,. +F*A
*+,. /,B* +0F0
*+,B ++0F +0/B
*+,A 0**B F+B/
*+,F /B00 +++2
*+,0 +2F. +A*+
*+,+ /B+2 +0/+
*+,/ /.B2 +0.B
*+,2 +/A, +B/,
*+*, +0A, +.//