October 2014 Excellence by Design Table of Contents
Introduction Purpose i Scope and Contents i Methodology ii Capacity Defined iii Impacts on Data iv Birth and Enrollment Data v Overview of the Enrollment Projections v Contact viii Enrollment Summary School Capacity and Projections 1 Enrollment Summary by School 2 Enrollment Summary by Grade 3 Chart Division-wide Enrollment 4 Chart Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment 5 Appendices Eligibility Conversion Table A1 Birth Data and Growth Rate Table A2 Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections A3 Kindergarten Enrollment Projections A4 Chart Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births A5 Elementary School Cohorts A6 Enrollment by Elementary School A9 Middle School Cohorts A12 Enrollment by Middle School A13 High School Cohorts A14 Enrollment by High School A15
NOTE: All projections use fall membership data as of September 30.
INTRODUCTION
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Purpose
Fauquier County Public Schools projects student enrollment for a ten-year period and updates those projections annually. The projections are developed to assist the school division in planning for and managing the current and future impacts of enrollment. These impacts include staff, facilities and other resources such as furniture, textbooks, and supplies. Planning to meet these needs enhances the divisions ability to achieve excellence by design and equality in education for its students.
Scope and Contents
The projections are developed using a methodology, which incorporates data from live births, historical enrollment, and the progression of students from one grade level to the next.
Scope: The statistics for live birth for Fauquier County residents cover a ten-year period from 2003-2004 (October through September) through 2012-2013 (see page A2). The 2012-2013 data is the latest available from the Virginia Bureau of Vital Records and Statistics. The historical enrollment is obtained from the records of the Fauquier County Public Schools and covers the five-year period from School Year (SY) 2010-2011 through 2014-2015. The live birth data and historical enrollment data is used to develop enrollment projections for a ten-year period from SY 2015-2016 through SY 2024-2024. The projections are provided for each of the divisions eleven elementary schools, five middle schools, and three high schools.
Contents: The manual is organized in three sections: Section 1: Introduction - offers an overview of the methodology. Section 2: Enrollment Summary - includes projection data and charts that are developed from the detailed information provided in the appendices. The key summary table is shown on page 1, School Capacity and Projections, and provides the ten-year projections compared to the program capacity of each school. Section 3: Appendices - includes data used to develop the projections. The data in this section is organized beginning with births through high school. Live birth data is provided on page A2, which is used in part to develop pre-kindergarten and kindergarten projections on pages A3 and A4. Data tables for elementary, middle, and high schools follow with detail information by school and by grade.
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Methodology
The cohort survival model draws upon two major components to project future enrollment: live births for Fauquier County residents and five years of actual enrollment data. The methodology uses the historical enrollment to evaluate the grade-to-grade progression of students from one year to the next. Trends in the data and patterns of growth are evaluated and applied to project future enrollment.
Pre-kindergarten and kindergarten: To project enrollment for pre-kindergarten and kindergarten, historical enrollment is compared to live births. The ratio of actual enrollment in the pre-kindergarten or kindergarten year to live births in the related birth year is used as a cohort to project future pre-kindergarten and kindergarten enrollment.
Grades 1 - 12: To project enrollment for grades 1 through 12, actual enrollment by grade level at each school is used to determine how many students progressed from one grade level to the next grade in the following year. Using this data, historical progression rates are typically calculated for periods of one to five years. The progression rate, also known as the cohort survival ratio, provides an average percentage growth factor to use in projecting future enrollment.
Cohort Survival Ratios: This manual shows the cohort survival ratio for five years for elementary, middle, and high schools.
Limitations: This methodology, while very useful, has several limitations. The model does not fully integrate other factors into the projections such as economic conditions and activity related to new developments and building permits. Also, enrollment projections are still only an estimate of future performance. Past performance and trend analysis data, although very useful, will vary in its accuracy in predicting future performance. Finally, projections will be more accurate on a division-wide basis than on an individual school basis. Factors that limit projections at individual schools include size of the population being used, the addition of new classrooms at existing schools, changes in school boundary lines, relocation of division-wide special programs, and changes in the pattern of development activity. To compensate for these limitations, enrollment projections are updated annually and market conditions and trends are considered in selecting cohorts and trend data.
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Capacity Defined
In using enrollment data as it relates to building capacity, it is important to understand that a distinction exists between building capacity (also known as design capacity) and program capacity. Definitions are provided below:
Building (Design) Capacity: Building capacity is defined as the number of students who can be accommodated in a given building, based upon the size and layout of the designed spaces. This figure is determined by State of Virginia criteria at the time of construction. The State assumes a classroom design capacity of 25 students per classroom. At the local level, School Board and administrative decisions regarding instructional programs may result in actual classroom capacity that differs from the design capacity.
Program Capacity: The program capacity of a classroom takes into account the type of instructional program in the classroom. Program capacity represents the number of students who can be accommodated in a space, based upon the actual use of the space at the time. Program capacity may change from year to year as enrollment demographics change. For example, the growth in enrollment of pre-kindergarten students may require an additional room be designated as pre-K, thus reducing capacity in that classroom. Similar changes occur such as with special needs and English as a Second Language programs. The current program capacity methodology for Fauquier County Public Schools establishes maximum class sizes, which optimize instructional goals. The following class-size maximums are being used: Class/Program Student/Teacher Ratio Pre-Kindergarten 12:1 Kindergarten through 5 th grade 24:1 6 th grade through 8 th grade 25:1 High School Academic and Health classrooms 25:1 High School English and Arts education 24:1 High School Business/Office education 25:1 High School Photography 16:1 High School Music 30:1 High School Vocational education 20:1 High School Main gym 30:1 High School Auxiliary gym 25:1 Self-contained, special education 8:1
In addition to classroom size, the Fauquier County School Board passed a resolution in November 2003, which determined that student enrollment at its high schools should not exceed 1,200 students. The School Board also
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passed a resolution in April 2006 that elementary schools should be constructed for a student enrollment of 600 with core facilities to accommodate 700 students. For middle schools, the School Board owns the Auburn Middle School design as its middle school prototype that was designed for a student population of 660 expandable to 810.
Impacts on Data
Development Activity: The number of new dwelling permits issued increased almost 28% from fiscal year 2013 to fiscal year 2014 and fiscal year 2013 was a 70% increase of the prior fiscal year. The largest number of dwelling permits was issued in the Scott magisterial district (43%); however, the Marshall magisterial district was close with 36% of the permitting. This is a change from prior years when the Marshall magisterial district averaged 25 new dwelling permits (99 permits issued in fiscal year 2014). Despite the increase in new housing permits, enrollment is relatively flat with just a slight overall decrease.
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Birth and Enrollment Data
Live Births: The historical rate of live births for county residents is used to project future births and future enrollment at the pre-kindergarten and kindergarten levels. Live births for Fauquier County are taken from birth certificates which specify a Fauquier County residence, regardless of the location of the actual birth. As shown on page A2, live births were generally declining from a 15-year high in 2007-2008 of 826 births to a 12-year low in 2012-2013. The most recent live birth data available, October 2012 through September 2013, reports 749 births or an increase of 6.5% from the previous years extreme low of 703 births. The five-year average number of births for Fauquier County is 750. Given that this number is similar to the latest number of births (749) the one-year average growth rate in births (6.5%) was not used in projecting future number of births. Instead a more conservative number, the three-year average, was used. This three-year rate of -0.2% is used in tables A3 and A4 to project future births and pre-kindergarten and kindergarten enrollment.
Historical Enrollment: Historical enrollment data is obtained from Fauquier County Public Schools records. The enrollment data used is based on the official September 30 enrollment reported to the State Department of Education each school year. Historical enrollment by school and by grade provides the data used as a cohort to determine future enrollment at the next grade level at a given school. Using this data, survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years. In determining the appropriate cohort survival ratio to use for the projection, known current and future market activity is considered as well as patterns of growth and progression in the school division. Historical enrollment, cohort survival ratios and enrollment projections are detailed in the appendices A6 through A16. Projections are also summarized in Section 2, Enrollment Summary, on pages 2 through 5.
Overview of the Enrollment Projections
Section 2, Enrollment Summary, is shown on pages 1 through 5. These pages provide (1) an overview of the enrollment projections by school, and (2) a comparison of enrollment with school capacity. The chart on page 1 demonstrates that enrollment will exceed capacity at two elementary schools in the County over the next ten years; however, enrollment in total or by school level is not projected to exceed 95% of program capacity.
The projections include enrollment totals for pre-kindergarten through grade 12. A brief synopsis of the methodology and resulting projections is provided in the following summary.
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Pre-Kindergarten (PK): In projecting PK enrollment, first the growth rate for live births was projected using a three-year average of -0.2% (see A2). Next the actual PK enrollment was compared to total live births to obtain a future PK enrollment growth rate (see A3). In SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015, the PK enrollment ranged from 8.2% to 10.4% of live births four years earlier. The ratio selected to project PK enrollment is the one-year rate of 8.9%. For example, in SY 2015-2016, PK enrollment is projected to be 67 as of September 30, 2015, which is 8.9% of live births of 759 four years earlier (2010-2011). During the projection horizon, PK enrollment remains flat at 67 students except for SY 2016-2017 which had the extreme low births four years prior. However, if PK participation is expanded, as is occurring to some extent with the State mandated typical peers program, then the enrollment at the PK level will increase accordingly. Such changes are not captured with this projection except to the extent it has occurred in the historical performance.
Kindergarten (K): As with PK, the methodology used to project K enrollment incorporates the change in live births as a key component. As mentioned earlier, live births are projected using the three-year average of -0.2% (see A2). Then actual K enrollment is compared to total live births to obtain a K enrollment growth rate (see A4). To project K enrollment the five-year average of 96.1% is used. This rate is the average of the past five years. Using this average in SY 2015- 2016, K enrollment is projected to be 729 as of September 30, 2015, which is 96.1% of live births of 757 five years earlier (2009-2010). K enrollment is projected to decrease from 734 in the current year to 713 in SY 2024-2025.
In developing K enrollment projections by school, the enrollment for each school for SY 2014-2015 is calculated as a percentage of the division-wide kindergarten enrollment, and shown in a separate column on page A4. This percentage by school is then used to allocate future K enrollment projections for each school. For example, as shown in this table, in SY 2014-2015 Bradleys enrollment of 66 was 9.0% of the total kindergarten enrollment of 734. By applying Bradleys 9.0% allocation to the SY 2015-2016 K projected enrollment of 729, it results in a K enrollment projection for Bradley of 65 kindergarten students.
The graph on page A5 compares projected K enrollment (shown by the blue bars) to projected live births (shown by the red line). As the graphs portrays, birth exceed projected K enrollment for the ten-year period. This is due in part to the fact that Fauquier births have exceeded K enrollment on a five-year average and has dropped significantly in the last two years.
Elementary: Elementary school historical enrollment is provided for each school for SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014- 2015. Using this information and the kindergarten enrollment, cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years. A survival cohort ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment in a given year to the prior grade one year earlier. In this projection, the one-year cohort ratios were deemed to provide accurate projections by school and used. The one-year enrollment change is an increase of 0.1% division-wide.
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Middle: Middle school historical enrollment is provided for each school from SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015. A survival cohort ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment from one grade level in a given year to the next grade level in the following year enrollments were modeled for SY 2012-2013 due to a middle school redistricting. Survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years. For the purpose of this projection, the two-year ratio is used to project future enrollment. The two-year enrollment projection is 2.4% decrease division-wide.
For middle school enrollment projections, the transition of fifth graders from elementary schools to sixth grade in the middle schools must be determined. Because the school division does not use feeder schools, it is necessary to assume progression from fifth grade to sixth grade based on division-wide numbers and historical representation at each school. For example, in SY 2014-2015 the division-wide fifth grade enrollment is 850. In SY 2014-2015 Auburn Middle School sixth grade enrollment is 175, or 23.1% of the total fifth grade enrollment. A similar allocation is made for each middle school. The detailed ratios and projections are provided in the appendices on pages A12 and A13.
Due to the impact of the SY 2012-2013 redistricting, development activity focused in specific areas, and the modeling of student enrollment at the middle schools, the division-wide ratios are more accurate than the ratios by individual schools.
High: High school enrollment projections follow the same process used at the elementary and middle schools. High school historical enrollment is provided for each school from SY 2010-2011 through SY 2014-2015. A survival cohort ratio is calculated by comparing the increase or decrease in enrollment from one grade level in a given year to the next grade level in the following year. Survival cohort ratios are calculated for periods of one to five years.
For the purpose of this projection, the one-year ratio is used to project future enrollment. The one-year enrollment growth is 3.3% division-wide. Because the school division does not use feeder schools, it is necessary to assume progression from eighth grade to ninth grade based on division-wide numbers and historical representation at each school. The cohort ratios for individual schools are added together to achieve a division-wide cohort as described for middle schools.
Summary: The capacity and enrollment projections on page 1 shows that at the elementary level two schools should be monitored; Pierce and Thompson elementary schools. Both are projected to exceed their total program capacity during the ten-year period. Overall, among the 11 elementary schools, sufficient program capacity is projected for all 10 years.
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At the middle school level, the SY 2012-2013 redistricting appears to have achieved its goal. None of the middle schools are projected to exceed their program capacity during the 10-year period.
The high schools currently reflect sufficient capacity at all three schools for the projection period. This is due in part to two changes that were made to program capacity. First, the addition to Fauquier high school increased its program capacity. Second, the methodology for high schools was reviewed in 2013 and adjusted to account for building design. Kettle Run high school and the addition at Fauquier high school were designed to allow for a higher utilization of classrooms that is now reflected in the program capacity numbers.
At the end of the 10-year projection period, it is anticipated that Fauquier County Public Schools will decrease in its enrollment. School year 2024-2025 is projected to have an enrollment of 10,330 or just 6.6% less than the current year. This is all based on trend analysis that is slow to react to shifts in trend data. It is thought that the enrollment is beginning to experience a shift from slightly declining enrollment to growth enrollment instead of just a minor downward fluctuation; however, insufficient data is currently available. The current approved subdivisions in the county have the potential to increase enrollment by an estimated 1,300 students. Next years enrollment forecast may reflect a different picture.
Contact
For questions regarding these projections, please contact the Office of Budget and Planning at (540) 422-7036.
ENROLLMENT SUMMARY
Page 1 School Capacity and Projections: This table provides data on program capacity by school as well as projected enrollment for ten years. This information is used in evaluating future construction needs.
Page 2 Enrollment Summary by School: This data table provides enrollment history for five years by school. It also provides a ten-year summary of the enrollment projections for each school. Additional detail on the projections is provided in the Appendices.
Page 3 Enrollment Summary by Grade: This table provides a division-wide summary of enrollment by grade, including five prior years and ten projected years.
Page 4 Division-wide Enrollment Chart: The chart demonstrates the division-wide growth in enrollment for five prior years and ten projected years.
Page 5 Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment Chart: This chart demonstrates the growth in enrollment by category of school for five prior years and ten projected years.
Ten-Year Enrollment Projections Elementary, Middle and High School Enrollment Actual and Projected Note: Enrollment as of September 30 each year, including Pre-Kindergarten. Projections SY15/16-SY24/25 Page 5 5,083 5,018 4,828 4,806 4,797 4,737 4,747 4,663 4,645 4,607 4,589 4,572 4,549 4,596 4,588 2,640 2,672 2,675 2,685 2,546 2,523 2,425 2,486 2,434 2,475 2,447 2,441 2,420 2,352 2,343 3,518 3,511 3,529 3,593 3,712 3,751 3,757 3,617 3,562 3,467 3,411 3,449 3,413 3,434 3,399 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 S t u d e n t
E n r o l l m e n t
School Year Elementary Middle High
APPENDICES - ENROLLMENT DETAIL
A1 Eligibility Conversion Table A2 Birth Data and Growth Rates Table A3 Pre-Kindergarten Enrollment Projections Table A4 Kindergarten Enrollment Projections Table A5 Kindergarten Enrollment Compared to Births Chart A6 Elementary School Cohorts Table A9 Enrollment by Elementary School Table A12 Middle School Cohorts Table A13 Enrollment by Middle School Table A14 High School Cohorts Table A15 Enrollment by High School Table