Você está na página 1de 3

Record No. 00007.

pdf
From: Graham, Gregory S NWW
To: Peters, Rock D NWD
Subject: Life-Cycle Modeling.doc.docx
Date: Tuesday, August 04, 2009 1:48:53 PM
Attachments: Life-Cycle Modeling.doc.docx

000060
Privileged and Confidential – PREPARED FOR LITIGATION PURPOSES – Do Not Distribute

FCRPS BiOp Issue Paper


Workgroup:
Draft 8-4-2009

Action Research, Monitoring and Evaluation:


Life-Cycle Modeling

Lead Implementing
Agency (others)
Current The 2008 BiOp used a combination of life-cycle modeling and passage
Description modeling (COMPASS) to estimate how changes in life-stage specific
 FCRPS BiOp survival affect long term viability metrics (productivity, mean abundance
activity and probability of quasi-extinction).
 Involved parties
and agreements As pointed out by the independent expert scientists review, these analyses
adequately expressed population viability, effects of hydropower system
operations and configurations on smolt survival and some alternative
ocean/climatic scenarios. However, the scientists recommended the
existing models be expanded to consider factors such as inter-specific
interactions, habitat productivity, dam breaching effects, interactions
among variables, hatchery effects, projected land- and water-use trends,
and the cumulative effects of climate variability and change in marine and
freshwater ecosystems on population demographics and trends.
Clarification for In 2010, the Action Agencies will be responsible to update the existing
Rapid Response life-cycle models to incorporate most recent population data (abundance
of adults and juveniles, stage-specific survival, etc.) and expand the
number of populations considered where possible (Snake River
spring/summer Chinook and steelhead; Upper Columbia spring Chinook;
and Mid Columbia steelhead). Also, explore data availability and, if
possible, develop data-supported models for populations within ESUs that
have not been modeled to date (Snake River fall Chinook; Snake River
sockeye; and Upper Columbia steelhead).

In addition, the agencies will expand the current models to individually


and cumulatively address:

 Climate. Incorporate climate effects across life stages by modeling


how particular climate “years” affect freshwater survival, downstream
migration survival, and estuary/ocean survival.
 Hatchery effects. Incorporate the effects of hatchery spawners on the
success of wild spawners .
 Habitat actions and monitoring. Continue to use the life-cycle
models to assess potential effects of habitat improvements, as they are

000061
Privileged and Confidential – PREPARED FOR LITIGATION PURPOSES – Do Not Distribute

implemented, on population viability, both in the near term and longer


term. New information will be incorporated and information gaps will
be identified to help shape future monitoring efforts.
 Harvest. We will examine the sensitivity of population viability
metrics to alternative harvest management scenarios.
 Species interactions. Evaluate the effects of other native species,
invasive species (competitors, predators, or pathogens), or other salmon
populations (i.e., highlighting potential tradeoffs among ESUs) on target
salmon populations through use of food web type models.
 Climate forecasting. Obtain the most current near term climate
forecasts from climate models and estimate how populations will likely
respond to the forecasts within the next generation (< 5 years).

Estimated Cost NOAA Fisheries will use existing key personnel to direct, guide, and
coordinate this modeling effort with existing NOAA Fisheries funding
($300 K). Additional staff to gather data, build the models, conduct model
studies and document the outputs will have to be hired. We estimate 4
additional staff at a total cost of $400 K/year will be required, and assume
the Action Agencies will fund this portion of the commitment. If
additional funding is required for participation by state and tribal
scientists, these costs will also be covered by the Action Agencies or
through existing MOA’s.
Implementation Updates to the life-cycle models will use a regional collaborative process
considerations similar to that used in the development of the COMPASS model. This
incorporated transparent and independent scientific peer review as a
foundational component.

Model outputs will be communicated verbally to the RIOG, and through


written products and peer-reviewed scientific publications. The outputs
will be translated for use in decision making to anticipate near term
population status (within the next 1-5 years), guide habitat restoration
actions, guide RM&E activities, explore uncertainty in hatchery, harvest
and habitat effectiveness, and ultimately provide early warning on whether
population triggers might occur. Through sensitivity analyses and other
diagnostic approaches, we will help to identify particular life stages that
may be a bottleneck for specific populations. This will help guide directed
mitigation actions.

000062

Você também pode gostar