Indonesia Energy Perspective:

Energy Supply Strategy and Energy Policy Toward

Low Carbon Development

Presented at
Joint Workshop UGM , Swedish Embassy and National Energy Council
on Renewable Energy Development and Implementation
Jogjakarta , 1 September 2011
Herman Darnel Ibrahim
Dr. [ITB, Indonesia], M.Sc. [University of Manchester, UK], Ir. [ITB]
Member of National Energy Council, Indonesia

Background Picture: Wayang Windu Geothermal Power Plant, West Java, Indonesia






Acknowledgement

The information I present here and the statements I
will be conveying during the presentation are not
necessarily representing and reflecting the view of
National Energy Council of Indonesia. The statement
of the Individual Council Member is considered as his
personal view.

Herman Darnel Ibrahim






Background Picture: Micro Hydro in Sulawesi
Features Total % of
World
World
Rank
Land Area 1.9 M sq km 1.3 16
Population 230 Miln. 3.41 4
GDP $ 540 Bln. 0.95 18
Electricity 150 TWh 0.9 15
Energy 150 MTOE 1.5 13
Elect. Ratio 65% W:80% NA
HDI 0.600 NA 111
By Energy Indonesia is Now BIG 13 in the World
Indonesia Vs World :
Demography and Energy Utilization [2009]
Republic Indonesia
Indonesia Vs World:
Energy Reserve and Consumption [2008]
Energy Unit Indonesia World*
Oil Reserve Billion Barrels 8 1208
Oil Reserve per capita TOE per capita 5.3 27.2
Gas Reserve TCF 160 6405
Gas Reserve per capita TOE per capita 18.0 25.2
Coal Reserve Billion Tons 21 909
Coal Reserve per capita TOE per capita 46.9 78.2
Electricity Consumption TWh 126.5 16733
Electricity per capita kWh per capita 567 2610
Primary Energy Cons. MTOE 139.8 11200
Primary Egy Cons per capita TOE 0.62 1.75
Energy Intensity TOE per $ Million 485 201
* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
Indonesia Vs World:
RE Supply and Carbon Emission [2006]
Energy Unit Indonesia World*
Primary Energy Consumption MTOE 127 10583
Renewable Energy MTOE 6.8 547
Renewable Energy Share % 5.3 5.1
Fossil Energy MTOE 120.2 9308
Fossil Energy Share % 95.2 88.1
Oil Energy MTOE 59.1 3846
Oil Energy Share % 46.5 36.3
Electr. Share in Final Energy % 11.6 19.2
CO2 Emission Million Ton 336 27347
CO 2 per TOE Primary Energy Ton 2.65 2.58
CO2 Emission per capita Ton per capita 1.51 4.20
* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
Basic Assumption of Economy Development
and Energy Scenario to 2050
11.09.21 by HDI 6 RE Development Policy
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
0 2 4 6 8 10
G
D
P

U
S
D

p
e
r

C
a
p
i
t
a

Primary Energy TOE per Capita
World Average 2006
Asia Average
China

Developed Countries


* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
Japan 2006
USA 2006
Average OECD 2006
Indonesia
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Primary Energy Consumption Projection to 2050
* Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan 2009, The EDMC Japan
Description Unit 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
World
2006
OECD
2006
Indonesia High 10^6 TOE 159 310 590 920 1240 10583 5537
Indonesia Moderate 10^6 TOE 159 280 480 740 1050
World Shell Scenario High 10^6 TOE 12420 15540 17430 19480 21160
World Shell Moderate 10^6 TOE 12420 15010 16600 17640 18400
Average Growth
Indonesia High % NA 6.9 6.6 4.5 3.0
Indonesia Moderate % NA 5.8 5.5 4.4 3.6
PE Annual Per Capita
Indonesia High TOE 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.1 4.0 1.64 4.71
Indonesia Moderate TOE 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.5 3.4
World Shell Scenario High TOE 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
World Shell Moderate TOE 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Elasticity
Indonesia High NA 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5
Indonesia Moderate NA 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6
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Primary Energy Consumption to 2050
00 10 20 30 40 50
High 103 159 310 590 920 1240
Moderate 103 159 280 480 740 1050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
M
T
O
E

Primary Energy
Moderate Growth 4.8%, E:0.73
High Growth 5,3 %, E:0,72
Consumption per
Capita 2025 ~ World
Average, 2050 ~ OECD
Average.
In 2006 World Average
:1,64 TOE , OECD
Average:~ 4 TOE
Consumption in 2030:
~4 x of 2010, and
2050: ~2 x of 2030.
Consumption by 2030:
~600 MTOE, by 2050:
~1200 MTOE [World
21000 MTOE]
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 9
Energy Sustainability: Uphold EC and Balance of
Security, Economy and Environment
Security
of Supply
Economy
of Supply
Environmental
Low Carbon and Renewable Energy
Uphold
Energy
Conserva
tion [EC]
Gas, Renewable, and Nuclear
Renewables
and Low
Carbon is a
Necessity.
Security of
Supply and
Price is Very
Important.
Economy of
Supply can not
be Disregarded.
Projection of
Consumption to 2050
Approximate RE
Supply Capability
Approximate of Fossil
Supply Capability
Prioritize Renewable
and Domestic Energy
Reduce the Carbon
Emission[Less Fossil]
Economy of Cost and
the Energy Security

Supply Strategy:
Maximize RE.
Minimize the
Use of Oil
Optimize Gas
and New Energy
Secure with
Coal [Balance
Production
Cost]
Nuclear as Last
Option.

Energy
Mix
The Rational for Energy Mix Projection
11.09.21 by HDI 10 RE Development Policy
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 11
Strategy Energy Mix to 2050
Maximize RE:
Purchase at
Higher Price.
Reduce CO2
Emission.
Better
Security of
Supply.

Impacts:
Average
Production
Coast
Increased.
Coal to Secure
Supply and
Price:
Production
Cost Cheaper.
Provide
Security of
Supply.
Impacts:
CO2 Emission
Increase
Mining
Environment
Nuclear the
Last Option:
Domestic and
Imported Non
Nuclear Energy
Not Secure
To Reduce
CO2
Emission.
Impacts:
High
Investment
Cost
Risk of
Aacident
Optimize Gas
and New Energy
[CBM, Fuel
Cell]:
Lower CO2
Emission
Provide
Security of
Supply.

Impacts:
Gas Infra-
structure
Investment
Minimize Oil
[Gasoline]:
To Reduce
National
Energy Costs
More Secure
to the Worlds
Oil Price
Dynamics
Impacts:
Cost to
Develop RE
and Other
Energy.

Energy Conservation Supply Side and Demand Side
Maximize RE; Minimize Oil; Optimize Gas and Non Nuclear
New Energy; Secure Supply by Coal
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 12
Approximate of Energy Supply Capability to 2050
No Energy Source
Reserve and Resource*
Land
[Million
Ha]
Approximate Supply
Capability
Reserve
[C]
Resource
[S]
Unit
C
[%]
S
[%]
MTOE
PE
Eq.
MWe
1. Renewable Energy
1.1 Biomass [Biofuel] 30 175 10^6 kliter 18 60 95 NA
1.2 Geothermal 2300 28000 Mwe NA 90 85 25200
1.3 Hydro 6000 75000 MWe NA 60 24 45000
1.4 Ocean NA 240 GWe NA 5 5.4 12000
1.5 Solar NA 1200 GWe 2 10 18 120000
1.6 Biomass [Waste] NA 50000 MWe NA 60 55 30000
1.7 Other RE NA 10000 MWe NA 30 4.8 3000
2. Fossil Energy
2.1 Oil 7990 56600
10^6
Barrel NA 100 50 5298 NA
2.2 Coal 21130 104940 10^6 Ton NA 100 30 26324 NA
2.3 Natural Gas 159.6 334.5 TCF NA 100 50 8242 NA
2.4 CBM 0 453.3 TCF NA 100 20 2286 NA
2.5 Nuclear NA 34112 Ton U NA 50 1835 NA
3. Total 1.1-1.7 [RE] 286 235200
4. Total 2.1-2.5 43985 NA
* Most of the data is from Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
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Characteristic and Profile of Renewable Energy
No Description
Geo-
thermal
Hydro Solar Wind Ocean
Biomass
Waste
Biomass
Biofuel
1 Potential 28 GWe 75 GWe
1200
GWe
9GWe
240
GWe
50GWe
175 M
kiloliter
2 Supply Capability 25 GWe 45 GWe 120 GWe 9 Gwe 12 GWe 30 GWe
95
MTOE
3
Availability and
Base Load
Capability
Continuo
us [Base
Load]
Seasonal
[Semi
Base
Load]
Intermitt
ent [Low
Density]
Intermit
tent
[Low
Density]
Intermit
tent
[Low
Density]
Continu
ous
[Base
Load]
Affected
by
Weather
4 Capacity Scale
Medium
to Big
Small to
Big
Small to
Medium
Small to
Medium
Small Medium NA
5
Technology
Readiness
Ready Ready Ready Ready RnD Ready Ready
6 Investment Cost
Medium
High
Low
Medium
High
Medium
High
High Medium NA
7
Production Cost
USD per MWh*
50-80 30-120 200-500 50-140 NA 50-120 NA
*Source: REN21 Renewables 2010 Global Status Report
14
Merit of Production Cost and Environmental of
Various Energy Sources *





0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5
Oil
Nuclear
Solar
Biomass
Gas
CC
Hydro
Geo
thermal
Merit of Environment Sustainability
High
Low
Gas
OC
M
e
r
i
t

o
f

P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
o
n

C
o
s
t

H
i
g
h

L
o
w

Clean Coal
Technology
CCS etc.
Bring Cost
Down
This Characteristic is Dynamic [Not Fixed]. Oil and other
Fossil energy cost will increase by its depletion and scarcity.
Renewable energy cost my decrease with Technology
innovation and economy scale [mass production].
Coal
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
P
r
i
m
a
r
y

E
n
e
r
g
y

[
M
T
O
E
]

Year
Without Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Other RE
Solar
Ocean
Hydro
Geothermal
Biomass Waste
Biomass Biofuel
Primary Energy Mix Scenario to 2050
19.2
20.3
39.4
21.1
2030 Without NPP [%]
Oil Gas Coal Renewable
17.3
16.5
43.0
23.2
2050 With NPP [%]
Oil Gas Coal Renewable
11.09.21 by HDI 15 RE Development Policy
RE Development is
successful, 23% Mix
by 2050.
By 2050: Biofuel 95
MTOE, Solar Energy
120 GWe.
Acc. consumption in
MTOE Coal 10000
[26000], Gas 4800
[10400], Oil 5200
[5300]
In 2050 Coal
consumption 2100
M Ton per year.
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 16
Shift of Paradigm: Indonesia is not rich of energy and energy is a
development modality.
Set by regulation the implementation target of electrification and
LPG gasification by region and district
Uphold energy conservation and maximize the use of renewable
and low carbon energy.
Prioritize the use of available fossil energy reserve for future
domestic energy supply security.
Be more conservative with our coal and gas export. Reduce export
gradually and think of importing them in the future.
Develop market and apply economical base energy tariff. Regulate
energy price if market is not balance.
Establish the national man power and industry capability in
equipment manufacturing
Energy Policy Toward National Energy Security
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 17
Energy Policy Toward Low Carbon Development
Set by regulation the RE and low carbon energy target in national
energy plan.
Remove the subsidy of Fossil Energy [Oil] : Then shift it to subsidize
low carbon energy.
Allow purchasing of RE at higher price: Implementation of Feed in
Tariff [by type, by scale and by region]
Fiscal Incentive : Provide Import Tax and Corporate Income Tax
Incentive.
Promote the green energy concept in the city development: efficient
street lighting and waste to energy
Encourage Energy Audit and oblige the audit for Large Energy
consumers
Labeling of Appliances: Minimum Energy Performance Standard for
widely use appliances.
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 18
To Close
Our President has declared to the world that Indonesia will
voluntarily reduce its carbon emission.
Renewable and low carbon energy is seemingly the most
popular subject in Indonesian energy in recent years.
We have to turn the vision, and the spirit into actions in
renewable and low carbon development.
This joint workshop is a good start to move forward with the
real projects and win-win cooperation.
Among the good project for Sweden-Indonesia cooperation
are; RE Research and capacity building, eco green city and
eco green airport development.

End of Presentation

Tack sa Mycket . . .
TerimaKasih . . .
Thank You for Your Attention . . .

www.den.go.id
11.09.21 by HDI RE Development Policy 20
Short Biography of Herman Darnel Ibrahim
Member of Indonesian National Energy Council [DEN]

Herman is a Member of National Energy Council of the
Republic of Indonesia representing the Renewable Energy
Industry Stakeholder. He is a Non Committal Energy
Consultant to ADB and other, and is a Visiting Professor at
University Tenaga Nasional Malaysia. He also serves as
the BoD Member of International Geothermal Association
[IGA], Chairman of Western Pacific Regional Branch of
IGA, and Vice Chairman of Expert Board of Indonesian Renewable Energy
Society [METI]. He was the President of INAGA [2001-2004] and was the
BoD Member of Indonesian Gas Association [1998-2001].

Herman got his First Degree in Electrical Engineering from Bandung Institute
of Technology [ITB], M.Sc. Degree in Electrical Power System from the
University of Manchester, UK, and PhD Degree in Energy Policy for Power
System Development from ITB Bandung. Until 2008 he worked with PLN for
almost 30 years. He achieved senior management position at the company as
Director Transmission and Distribution [2003-2008], Director of PT. Indonesia
Power, a subsidiary of PLN [1998-2003], President Director of PT. Cogindo
DayaBersama, a subsidiary of PT Indonesia Power [1998-1999].