Democrats pour cash into Kentucky but cast

nervous glances at New Hampshire

Tom McCarthy in New York
Follow @TeeMcSee Follow @GuardianUS
theguardian.com, Thursday 23 October 2014 07.55 EDT

Why did Messner climb without oxygen? Why did Heyerdahl cross the ocean on
a raft? Sometimes its cooler to do things the hard way. The Democrats seem to
understand this. With 12 days to go until the midterm elections, there are still
many paths for the Democrats to retain their Senate majority. Those paths are
just looking increasingly dramatic through reddish states like Georgia and
Kansas, instead of bluish states like Colorado and Iowa or New Hampshire. But
how much cooler will it be, for them, if they pull it off?
Todays number to know
Two. Thats the number of major public polls released in the last 24 hours
showing the Republican senatorial candidate with an edge in Colorado. As Harry
Enten of FiveThirtyEight points out, Colorado is cruxy.
Colorados place at the center of the political universe seems to be secure this
year. The Senate race between Mark Udall and Republican Cory Gardner has
been one of the most competitive for most of campaign season.
Thats why the strength of Gardner in recent polls has been so important in our
Senate forecast, which currently gives Republicans a 66% of securing a majority.
Heres more on the state of the race:
A morning must-read from my colleague Ed Pilkington (@EdPilkington), on how
state Republican leaders have advanced voter restriction laws that would tilt the
electorate toward the Republican party. Heres a snippet:
The Scott versus Crist race is perhaps the most glaring example of a nationwide
trend that is bearing down on the mid-term elections, now just two weeks away.
Republican leaders have exposed themselves to the charge of conflict of interest
over the past four years by introducing a raft of restrictive voting rules across 22
states that place hurdles in the way of would-be voters, particularly from
Democratic-leaning backgrounds.
Doing it the hard way
The Democrats announced Wednesday they are pouring big new money high
six figures, an apparatchik tells the Washington Post into the Senate race in
Kentucky, where would-be majority leader Mitch McConnell is facing Alison
Lundergan Grimes. Kentucky went for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by 22
points in 2012. (Incidentally, Romney won by the same margin in Kansas, where
Democrats are also hoping for victory.)
A DSCC official confirms they are going back on the air in #KYSEN. They see
the race tightening w/ undecided voters breaking towards Grimes.
Shushannah Walshe (@shushwalshe) October 22, 2014
George Will: Restoration of Senates dignity rides on Mitch McConnell. The
restoration. Of the Senates dignity. Rides on. Mitch McConnell.
And then theres Georgia, where Michelle Nunn, the Democratic daughter of
Congressional superhero Sam Nunn, is showing real brio against Republican
David Perdue (with a name like that, heh, etc):
Polling lately has looked good for Democrats in Georgia, but it's also on the
verge of becoming a "must win" state instead of Dems' Plan B.
Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 22, 2014
But some Democrats are starting to cast nervous glances toward New
Hampshire, where incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen had seemed to hold a
steady lead against cross-border dreamboat Scott Brown. A new PPP poll
continues to tell that story, with Shaheen up 49-45. But a New England College
poll finds Brown with a one-point, 48-47 edge.
And some close observers are feeling tremors:
If you can "feel" a change in a state this one is it @politicalwire: Brown Just
Ahead in Tight Race http://t.co/V94f6FjzSh #nhsen
SalenaZito (@SalenaZitoTrib) October 22, 2014
As for Colorado, Enten dismisses Democratic attempts to in turn dismiss the
latest public polls. Enten concludes:
The polls and the fundamentals tell the same basic story: An unpopular
incumbent is losing in a purple state against a decent candidate in a slightly
Republican-leaning year. Thats a pretty believable story.
It's not just TV ads some Colorado voters are sick of! pic.twitter.com/zzZ1bhkwsy
Scott Bland (@HotlineScott) October 22, 2014
News leaked that Kentucky senator Rand Paul has summoned his minions to
Washington as soon as the midterms are over to discuss a possible presidential
bid. Last night Paul was barnstorming through the barn state on behalf of Senate
hopeful Joni Ernst:
Heckuva a crowd in Iowa City to see Joni and Sen Rand Paul! #iasen
#IowaKnowsBest pic.twitter.com/8d5aiyh56U
gretchen hamel (@DCgretchen) October 23, 2014
Off-piste
There was another fence jumper last night at the White House. He was attacked
by secret service dogs, which he slammed and punched, sending two to the vet.
A White House statement said the suspect was an unarmed 23-year-old from
Maryland.


The revolutionary 2014 midterm election will not be televised:
Incredible chart. http://t.co/h6RxrNlGFA pic.twitter.com/p3oYageLSU
Elliott Schwartz (@elliosch) October 22, 2014
Trail running
Hillary Clinton is in New York City this morning to rally with Governor Andrew
Cuomo whose chances are looking decent. Later shes due in Minnesota.
The Clintons, the Democrats 2014 super surrogates AP
Michelle Obama travels to Colorado today to stump for Udall.
Whither the Senate
Its still looking good for the GOP. The average probability of Republicans taking
the Senate, according to three top elections modelers (538, the New York Times
and HuffPost Pollster), is 65% down just more than a point from a day before.
Interestingly, theres disagreement here about the momentum of the race. Two of
the models NYT and 538 increased their odds of a GOP Senate takeover.
The third model, however, HuffPost Pollster, shows the chances of Republican
victory declining relatively steeply, to 62%.
Ad watch
Republican Senate hopeful Joni Ernst in Iowa does not know how to make a bad
campaign ad. (See previous.) All you need are pigs and entendre.