"i

Challenges, Strategies an~

Solutions of Disasters due to
Earthquakes, Landslides,
Floods and their Management
Mrinal K. Ghose
Ph.D, D.Sc.
Emeritus Professor :Department of Biotechnology, West
Bengal University of Technology" Kolkata-700064
ghosemrinal@hotmail.com
Abstract
India is among the world's most disaster prone
areas and a large part of the country is exposed to
the natural hazards like floods, cyclones, droughts
and earthquakes. They are causing significant
disruption of socio-economic life of communities
leading to loss of life am!: property. This paper
examines the unique geo-climatic conditions, which
have exposed this country to natural catastrophes
traditionally and it focuses the background of the
United Nations' declaration of 1990-2000 as
International Decade for Natural Disaster
Reduction This paper discusses the physical form
of geosphere causing earthquake arise from plate
tectonic processes, surface earth movement causing
lands slide, stream and river phenomena causing
floods. Concerned UJoiththe impact of natural
disasters preparedness and prevention are integral
components of the development process; the
Governments qt the Central and State levels are
gradually evolving strategies, policies and
programmes for natural disaster mitigations,
preparedness and prevention. The importance of
forecasting, satellite and remote sensing,
computerized systems of vulnerability and risk
assessment and other technologies for warning and
monitoring has been described. Hazard
vulnerability in respect of earthquakes, wind and
cycles, floods has been discussed. Land-use zoning
and design guidelines for improving hazard
resistant construction of buildings and housing
have been highlighted in this paper. Recognizing
the usefulness of the Vulnerability Atlas for
formulating pro-active policies to face the threat of
natural hazards, is being brought to the notice of
the development planners, decision makers,
professionals and householders. Seismic occurrence
and cyclone hazard monitoring by Indian
Meteorological Department (IMD) and flood
monitoring by the Central Water Commission are
being done. The Bureau of Indian Standards
Committees on Earthquake Engineering and Wind
Engineering has a Seismic Zoning Map and the
Wind Velocity Map including cyclonic winds for the
country. The Central Water Commission has a Flood
Atlas of India. Strategies to be adopted and
proposed Action Plan for consideration of the
Government for evolving a National Policy keeping
in view of the Govt. of India's commitment to the
Yokohama Strategy for Natural Disaster Reduction
are discussed. Recommendations and proposed
Action Plan and the major issues are highlighted
The objectives of India's National Policy for natural
disaster reduction, goals, legislation needed,
stakeholders in the process of disaster mitigation,
pre-disaster pro-active approach in disaster
management are discussed
Keywords: Hazard, tectonic, forecasting,
prevention, vulnerability, awareness
1.0 Introduction
The natural hazards like floods, cyclones,
droughts and earthquakes are not rare or unusual
phenomenon and India is among the world's most
disaster prone areas A large part of the country is
exposed to such natural hazards, which often turn
into disasters causing significant disruption of
socio-economic life of communities leading to loss
of life and property. The unique geo-climatic
conditions, which have exposed this country to
natural catastrophes traditionally and it focuses the
background ofthe United Nations' resolution. UN
declaration of 1990-2000 as International Decade
for Natural Disaster Reduction brings into sharp
focus the miseries caused by natural disasters and
the need to take action in this regard. Concerned
with the impact of natural disasters preparedness
and prevention are integral components of the
development process; the Governments at the
Central and State levels are gradually evolving
strategies, policies and programmes for natuTal
disaster mitigations, preparedness and prevention.
Recognizing the usefulness of the Vulnerability
Atlas for formulating pro-active policies to face the
threat of natural hazards, is being brought to the
notice of the development planners, decision
makers, professionals and householders. Seismic
occurrence and cyclone hazard monitoring by
Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and flood
monitoring by the Central Water Commission are
being done. In addition Geological Survey of India
and the Department of Earthquake Engineering,
University of Roorkee makes noteworthy
*Key note address presented in the National Seminar On "Environmental Issues: Protection, Conservation
& Management" held at Visva Bharati, Shantiniketan on 22- 23 Nov'2013.
Volume 2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
27
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Mrinal K. Ghose
contributions in this regard. The Bureau of Indian
Standards Committees on Earthquake Engineering
and Wind Engineering has a Seismic Zoning Map
and the Wind Velocity Map including cyclonic winds
for the country. The Central Water Commission has
a Flood Atlas of India. The importance of
forecasting, satellite and remote sensing,
computerized systems of vulnerability and risk
assessment and other technologies for warning and
monitoring cannot be tgnored. The objective of this
paper is 1i)!tnalyze hazard vulnerability in respect
of earthquakes, landslides and floods with specific
reference to India and to focus on land-use zoning
and design guidelines for improving hazard
resistant construction of buildings and housing.
2.0 Physical form of geosphere
The geosphere has a highly varied, constantly
changing ph~sical form. Most of earth's land mass
is contained in several massive continents
separated by vast massive oceans. Towering moun-
tains rangespread across the continents, and in
some places the ocean is at extreme depths. Earth-
quakes, which often cause great destruction and
loss of life, volcanic eruptions, which sometimes
throw enough material into the atmosphere to
cause temporary changes in climate, serve as
reminders that the earth is a dynamic, living body
that continues to cb-ange. There is convincing
evidence that the close fit between the western
coast of Africa and the eastern coast of South
America, that widely separated continents were
once joined a'hd have moved relative to each other.
The ongoing phenomenon is known as continental
drift. It is now believed that 200 million years ago
much ofthe earths land mass was all part of a super
continent, now called Gowanda land. This continent
spilt apart to form to present-day continents of
Antarctica, Australia, Africa, and South America,
Madagascar, the Seychelles Islands, and India are
described by the theory of plate tectonics (Candie
1997).
This theory views earth's solid as consisting
of several rigid plates, that move relative to each
other. These plates drift at an average rate of
several centimeters per year atop a relatively weak,
partially molten layer that is a part of earths upper
mantle called the asthenosphere. The science of
plate tectonics explains the large-scale phenomenon
that effect the geosphere, including the creation of
and enlargement of oceans as oceans floors open
up and spread, the collision and breaking apart
continents, the formation of mountain chains,
volcanic activities, the creation of islands of volcanic
origin, and earthquakes. The boundaries where the
most geological activity such as earthquakes and
volcanic activity occur. These boundaries are of
three following types.
.
Divergent boundaries, where plates are
moving away from each other, occurring on
ocean floors. These are the regions in which
hot magma flows upward and cools to produce
new solid lithosphere. This new solid material
creates ocean ridges.
Convergent boundaries where plates move
toward each other. One plate may be pushed
beneath the other in a subduction zone in
which matter is buried in the asthenosphere
and eventually remolded to form new magma.
When this does not occur, the lithosphere is
pushed up to form mountain ranges a collision
boundary.
Transform fault boundaries in which two
plates slide past each other. These boundaries
create faults that result in earthquakes.
.
.
3.0 Earthquakes . -
Earthquakes usually arise from plate tectonic
processes and originate along the plate boundaries
occurring as motion of ground resulting from the
release of energy that accompanies in abrupt
slippage of rock formations subjected to stress along
a fault. Basically, two huge masses trend to move
relative to each other, but are locked together along
a fault line. This causes deformation of rock
formations, which increases with increasing stress.
Eventually, the friction between the two moving
bodies is insufficient to keep them locked in place,
and movement occurs along an existing fault, or a
new fault is formed. Freed from constraints on their
movement, the rock undergoes elastic rebo~nd,
causing the earth to shake. In addition to shaking
of ground, which can be quite violent, earthquakes
can cause ground to rupture, subside or rise (Keller
1996). Liquefaction is an important phenomenon
that occurs during earthquakes with ground that
that is poorly consolidated and in which the water
table may be high. Liquefaction results from
separation of soil particles accompanied by water
infiltration, when this o,~curs; the ground behaves
like a fluid.
The location of the initial movement along a
fault that causes an earthquake to occur is called
the focus of the earthquake. The surface location
directly above the focus is the epicenter. Energy is
transmitted from the focus by seismic waves.
Seismic waves that travel through the interior of
the earth are called body waves and those that
traverse the surface are surface waves. Body waves
are further categorized as P-waves, compressional
vibrations that result from the alternate
Volume 2014-15 . Number 1 . April 2014
28
compression of and expansion of geographical
material, and S-waves, consisting of shear waves
manifested by sideways oscillation of material. The
motions of these waves are detected by a
seismograph, often at a great distances from the
epicenter. The two types of waves move at different
rates, with P-waves moving faster. From the arrival
times of the two kinds of waves at different
seismographic locations, it is possible to locate the
epicenter of the earthquake.
The loss of life and destruction of property by
earthquakes make them some of nature's more
natural phenomena. The destructive effects of an
earthquake are due to the release of energy.
Literally millions oflives have been lost in the past
earthquakes, and the damage from a developed
urban area can be millions of dollars. Earthquakes
may cause catastrophic secondary effects, especially
large, destructive ocean waves are called tsunamis.
Adding the terror of earthquakes is their lack
of predictability. An earthquake can strike at any
time. Although: .the exact prediction of earthquakes
has so far eluded the investigators, locations where
the most earthquakes are most likely to occur are
much more well-known. These are located along the
in lines corresponding to boundaries along which
tectonic plates collide and move relative to each
other, building up stresses that are suddenly
released when earthq~akes occur. Such inter plate
boundaries are locations of preexisting faults and
breaks. Occasionally, however, an earthquake will
occur within a plate, made more massive and
destructive because for it to occur the thick litho-
sphere has to be ruptured.
The scale of earthquakes can be estimated by
the degree of motion that they cause and by their
destructiveness. The former is termed as the
magnitude of an earthquake and is commonly
expressed by the Richter scale. The Richter scale is
an open-ended, and each unit is in the scale reflects
a ten-fold increase in magnitude. Hundred thousand
earthquakes from three to three occur each year,
they are detected in seismographs, but are not felt
by humans. Minor earthquakes range from four to
five on Richter scale and earthquakes cause damage
at a magnitude greater than about five. Great
earthquakes, which occur about once or twice a year,
register over eight on the"Richter scale.
The intensity of an earthquake is a subjective
estimate of its potential destructive effect. On
Mercaulli intensity scale, an intensity III earth-
quake feels like the passage of heavy vehicles; one
with an intensity of VII cause difficulty in standing
, damage to plaster, and dislodging of loose brick,
whereas a quake with an intensity of XII causes
virtually of total destruction, throws objects
Mrinal K Ghose
upward, and shifts huge masses of earthen
material. Intensity does not correlate exactly with
magnitude.
Distance from the epicenter, the nature of
identifying strata, and the types of structures
affected may all result variations in intensity from
the same earthquake. In general, structures on
bedrock will survive with much less damage than
those constructed on poorly consolidated material.
Displacement of ground along a fault can be
substantial, for example, up to six meters along the
San Andreas fault during the 1906 San Francisco
earthquake Such shifts can break pipelines and
destroy roadways. Highly destructive surface waves
can shake vulnerable structures apart. The shaking
and movement of ground are the most obvious
means by which earthquakes cause damage. In
addition to shaking it, earthquakes can cause the
ground to rupture, subside, or rise. Liquefaction is
an important phenomenon that occurs during
earthquakes with ground that is poorly consoli-
dated and in which the water table may be high.
Liquefaction results from separation of soil particles
accompanied by water infiltration such that the
ground behaves like a fluid.
Another devastating phenomenon consists of
tsunamis, large ocean waves resulting from
earthquake-induced movement of ocean floor
(Dudley and Min 1998). Tsunamis sweeping
onshore at speeds up to 1000kmlhr have destroyed
many homes and taken lives, often large distances
from the epicenter ofthe earthquake, itselfCSatake
et.al 1995). The effect occurs when a tsunami
approaches land and forms huge breakers, some as
high as 10-15 meters, or even higher. On April 1,
1946, an earthquake off the coast of Alaska
generated a tsunami estimated to be 30 meters high
that killed 5 people on a nearby lighthouse. About
5 hours later a Tsunami generated by the same
earthquake reached Hilo, Hawaii, and killed 159
people with a wave exceeding 15 meters high. The
March 27, 1964, Alaska earthquake generated a
tsunami over 10 meters high that hit a freighter
docked at Valdez, tossing it around like matchwood.
Miraculously, nobody on the freighter was killed,
but 28 people on the dock died.
Literally millions oflives have been lost in the
past earthquakes, and damage from the earthquake
in developed urban area can easily run into billions
of dollars. As examples, a massive earthquake in
Egypt and Syria in 121 ADtook over 1 million lives,
one in Tangshan, China in 1976 killed about 650,000
and in 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in California
cost about 7 billion dollars.
Significant progress has been made in
designing structures that are earthquake resistant.
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Mrinal K. Ghose
An evidence of that, during 1964 earthquake in
Niigata, Japan, some buildings tipped-over on their
sides due to liquefaction of the underlying soil, but
remained structurally intact! Other areas of
endeavor that can lessen the impact of earthquakes
is the identification of areas susceptible to
earthquakes, discouraging development in such
areas, and educating the public about the
earthquake hazards. Accurate prediction would be
a tremendous help"'in lessening the effects of
earthqu.tkes. One unlikely possibility to detonate
nuclear explosives deep underground along a fault
line to release stress before it builds up to an
excessive level. Fluid injection to facilitate slippage
along a fault has also been considered.
4.0 Surface earth movement
Mass movements are the result of gravity
acting upon.rock and soil on earth's surface. This
produces a shearing stress on earthen materials
located on slopes that can exceed the shear strength
of the material and produce landslides and related
phenomena involving the downward movement of
geological materials. Such phenomena are affected
by several factors, including the kinds and,
therefore, strengths of materials, slope steepness,
and degree of saturation with water. Usually, a
specific event initiates mass movement. This can
occur when excava.tion by widespread humans
steepens the slopes, by the action of torrential rains,
or by earthquakes. Such events toxic gases occur
when material resting on a slope at an angle of
repose is aCted upon by gravity to produce a
shearing stress. This stress may exceed the forces
of friction or shear strength. Weathering, fractu-
ring, water, and other factors may induce the
formation of slide planes or failure planes such that
a landslide results.
Loss of life and property from landslides can
be substantial. In 1970 a devastating avalanche of
soil, mud, and rocks initiated by an earthquake slid
down Mt. Huascaran in Peru killing an estimated
20,000 people. Sometimes the effects are hot magma
indirectly. In 1963 a total of 2600 people were killed
near the Valiant Dam in Italy. A sudden landslide
filled the reservoir behind the dam with earthen
material and, although. the dam held, the displaced
water spilled over its abutments as a wave 90
meters high, wiping out structures and lives in its
path.
Although often ignored by developers, the
tendency toward landslides is predictable and can
be used to determine areas in which homes and
other structures should not be built. Slope stability
maps based upon the degree of slope, the nature of
underlying geological strata, climatic conditions,
and other factors can be used to assess the risk of
landslides. Evidence of a tendency for land to slide
can be observed from effects on existing structures,
such as walls that have lost their alignment, cracks
in foundations, -and poles that tilt. The likelihood
of landslides can .be- minimized by moving
maternal. from the upper to the lower part of a
slope, avoiding the loading of slopes, and avoiding
measures that might change the degree and
pathways of water infiltration into slope materials.
In cases where the risk is not too severe,. retaining
walls may be constructed that reduce the effects of
landslides. Several measures can be used to warn
landslides. Simple visual <Jbservations, of changes
in the surface can be indicative of an impending
landslide. More sophisticated measures include tilt
meters and devices that sense vibrations
accompanying the movement of earthen materials.
In addition to landslides, there are several
other kinds of mass movements that have the
potential to be damaging. Rock falls occur when
rocks fall down slopes so steep that at least part of
the time the falling material is not in contact with
the ground. The fallen material accumulates at the
bottom of the fall as a pile of talus. A much less
spectacular event is creep, in which movement is
slow and gradual. Though usually not life
threatening, over a period of time creep may ruin
foundations and cause misalignment of roads and
railroads with significant property damage. Special
. problems are presented by permanently frozen
ground in arctic climates such as Alaska or Siberia.
In such areas the ground may remain permanently
frozen, northward thawing to only a shallow depth
during the summer. This condition is called
permafrost. Permafrost poses particular problems
for construction, particularly where the severe
flooding presence of a structure may result in
thawing such that the structure rests in a pool of
water-saturated muck resting on a slick surface of
frozen water and soiL The construction and
maintenance of highways, railroads, and pipelines,
such as the Trans- Alaska pipeline in Alaska, can
become quite difficult in the presence of permafrost
Some types of soi1s, particularly so-called
expansive clays, expand and shrink slow runoff and
markedly as they become saturated with water and
dry out. Although essentially never life threatening,
the movement of structures and the damage caused
to them by enabling soil to expansive clays can be
very high. Aside from years when catastrophic
floods and earthquakes occur, the monetary
damage done by the action of expansive soil exceeds
that of earthquakes, landslides, floods, and coastal
erosion combined!
Sinkholes are a kind of earth movement
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Mrinal K. Ghose
resulting when surface earth falls into underground
cavity. They rarely injure people but -may cause
spectacular property damage. Cavities that produce
sinkholes may form by the action of water
containing dissolved carbon dioxide on limestone;
loss of underground water during drought or from
heavy pumping, thus removing support down-
stream that previously kept soil and rock from
collapsing; heavy underground water flow; and
other factors that r~move solid material from
underground strata.
5.0 Stream and river phenomena
A stream consists of water flowing through a
channel. The area of land from which water is
drawn that flows into a stream is the stream's
drainage basin. The sizes of streams are described
by discharge defined as the volume of water flowing
past a given .,point on the stream per unit time.
Discharge and gradienf, the steepness of the
downward slope of a stream determines the stream
velocity.
Internal processes raise masses of land and
whole mountain ranges, which in turn are shaped
by the action of streams. Streams cut down
mountain ranges, create banks to contain; valleys,
form plains, and produce great deposits of sediment,
thus playing a key role in shaping the geospheric
environment. Streamli spontaneously develop bends
and curves by cutting away the outer parts of
stream banks and depositing materials on the inner
parts. These curved features of streams are known
as meanders. Left undisturbed, a stream forms
meanders across a valley in a constantly changing
pattern. The cutting away of material by the stream
and the deposition of sediment eventually form a
generally flat area. During times of high stream
flow, the stream leaves its banks, inundating parts
or all of the valley, thus creating a floodplain.
A flood occurs when a stream develops a high
flbw such that it leaves its banks and spills out onto
floodplain Floods are arguably the most common
and damaging phenomenon in the geosphere.
Though natural and in many respects beneficial
occurrences, floods cause damage to structures
located in their paths, and the severity of their
effects is greatly increased by human activities.
A number of factors determine the occurrence
and severity of floods. One ofthese is the tendency
of particular geographic areas to receive large
amounts of rain within short periods of time. Once
such area is located in the middle ofthe continental
USA where warm, moisture-laden air from the Gulf
of Mexico is carried northward during spring
months to collide with cold air from the north; the
resultant cooling of the moist air can cause
terrestrial rain to occur, resulting in severe
flooding. In addition season and geography,
geographical conditions have a strong effect on
flooding potential. Rain falling on a steep surface
tends to run off rapidly, creating flooding. A
watershed can contain relatively massive quantities
ifit consists porous, permeable materials that allow
a substantial rate of infiltration, assuming that is
not already saturated. Plants in a watershed tend
to draw runoff and loosen soil, enabling additional
infiltration. Through transpiration plants release
moisture in the atmosphere quickly, enabling soil
to absorb more moisture.
Several terms are used to describe flooding.
When the stage of stream, that is, the elevation of
the water surface, exceeds the stream bank level,
the stream is said to be at flood stage. The highest
stage attained defines the flood crest. Upstream
floods occur close to the inflow from the drainage
basin, usually the result of intense rainfall.
Whereas the upstream floods usually affect smaller
streams and watersheds, downstream floods occur
on larger rivers that drain large areas.. Widespread
spring snowmelt and heavy, prolonged spring rains,
often occurring together, cause downstream floods.
Floods are made more intense by higher
fractions and higher rates of runoff, both of which
may be aggravated by human activities. This can
be understood by comparing a vegetated drainage
basin to one that has been largely denuded of
vegetation and paved over. In the former case,
rainfall is retained by vegetation, such as grass
cover. Thus the potential flood water is delayed,
the time span over which it enters a stream
extended, and higher proportion of water infiltrated
into the ground. In the later case, less rainfall
infiltrates, the runoff tends to reach the stream
quickly and to be discharged over a shorter period
of time, thus leading to sever flooded.
The conventional response to the threat of
flooding is to control a river, particularly by the
cons-truction of raised banks called levees. In
addition to raising to contain a stream, the stream
channel may be straightened and deepened to
increase the volume and velocity of water flow, a
process called channelization. Although effective for
common floods, these measures may exacerbate
extreme floods by confusing and increasing the flow
of water upstream such that the capacity to handle
water downstream is overwhelmed. Another
solution is to construct dams to create reservoirs
for flood control upstream. Usually such reservoirs
are multipurpose facilities designed for water
supply, recreation, to control river flow for
navigation in addition to flood control. The many
reservoirs constructed for flood control have been
Volume2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
31
Mrinal K. Ghose
reasonably successful. There are, however, conflicts
in th~ goals for their uses. Ideally, a reservoir for
flood control, should remain largely empty until
needed to contain a large volume of floodwater, an
approach that js obviously inconsistent with other
uses. Another concern is that of exceeding the
capacity of the reservoir, or the dam failure, the
latter of which can lead to catastrophic flooding.
6.0 Hazard vulnentbility in India
Indian Subcontinent: among the world's most
disaster IJrone areas
. 54% of land vulnerable to Earthquakes
. 8% of land vulnerable to Cyclones
. 5% of land vulnerable to Floods
. 1 million houses damaged annually + human,
social, other losses
Earthquake,~
. 12% land is liable -to severe earthquakes
(intensity MSK IX or more).
18%landis liable to MSKVIII (similar to Latur
/ Uttarkashi)
. 25% land is liable'to MSK VII (similar to
Jabalpur quake)
. Biggest quakes in: Andamans, Kuchchh,
Himachal, Kashmir, N~Bihar and the North
East
.
Wind and cyclones
. 1891-1990:262 cyclones (92 severe) in a 50 km
wide strip on the East Coast
. Less sev~re cyclonic activity on West Coast (33
cyclones in the same period)
~ In 19 severe cyclonic storms, death toll> 10,000
lives
~ In 21 cyclones in 'Bay of Bengal (India +
Bangladesh) 1.25 million lives have been lost
Floods
. Floods in the Indo-Gangetic-Brahmaputra
plains are an annual feature
. On an average, a few hundred lives are lost,
millions are rendered homeless, lakhs of
hectares of crops are damaged every year
Natural disasters are increasingly making
headline news, due to the impact of modern
communications and connectivity, and the
proliferation of TV and news media.
The Expert Group appointed by the Govt. of
India examined the current status of work being
.carried out in these areas:
. Monitoring of Hazards
. Vulnerability Assessment
. Prediction and Forecasting
.
Retrofitting of Existing Unsafe Structures and
Buildings
Hazard Mapping;
Disaster Risk Assessment and Mapping
Preparation of Building Guidelines
Assessing Gaps in the Above. Filling them as
much as possible.
.
.
.
.
7.0 RISING POPULATION AND URBANI-
. ZATION
Disaster is defined to mean an uncontrollable
natural hazard, or more technically a physieal
phenomenon, that results in damage. Taking an
avalanche in the Himalayas as an example, it would
not be considered a disaster unless it resulted in
actual damage to human life or property. A disaster,
in other words, has an impact on human society.
India is geologically characterized by the Pan-
Pacific Earthquake Belt and the Himalayan
Earthquake Belt, with other volcanic zones
overlapping these major areas. Meteorologically,
India features frequent typhoons and cyclones in
the tropical zone. While temperate low pressure
regions that develop in the Himalayas grow as they
move eastward, bringing torrential rain along their
path. It is apparent that most types of natural force
that can cause disaster are present in India. What
is worse is that the countries badly affected by such
natural forces have over-populated capitals and
sprawling urban areas. Population-wise, Asia
accounted for about 61% of the world population,
about 3.5 billion people, in 1995. And this is
expected to grow by 1.4 times to some 4.8 billion by
2025. The population density in 1995 was 109 per
square kilometer, 2.6 times the world average, 'Fhe
urban population of Asia accounted for 35% of'.the
total in 1995, and this also is expected to reach 52%
by 2025.
Evidence of the accelerating concentration of
population in the cities with all its resultant
problems. Over 80% of Asian population growth in
the 1990s took place inuroan areas. The number of
cities exemplifies this with a population of over 1
million; there were just 28 such cities in 1950. But
this rose to 136 in 1995 f'nd is expected to skyrocket
to 243 in 2015 It is essential in any discussion of
the likely characteristics of disaster in the 21st
century to keep these figures in mind And to
recognize the growing risk of enormous disaster
hitting the growing urban areas. Let me expand on
the specific types of disaster that are common in
Asia. In compiling population, social conditions, and
data on past events were taken into account in
making a comprehensive evaluation. It suggests
that the most vulnerable regions are the
Philippines, Indonesia, India, China, Bangladesh,
Volume 2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
32
of
Mrinal K. Ghose
and Japan in order of decreasing risk. These
countries are characterized by large populations of
over 100 million, except in the case of the
Philippines where it is somewhat less than 70
million. Damage is maximized in the Philippines
because of the wide range of natural forces at work
there. Two types of disaster are particularly likely
. to cause very serious damage: flood and earthquake.
Given the frequency with which wind and flood
disasters occur, they far outnumber other types in
damage severity.
8.0 STATISTICS ON DISASTERS
Asia have accounted for about 50% of the world
total, while other disasters make up about 40% of
the total. The most dreadful record is the ratio of
Asia's disaster death toll to that of the world as a
whole; it is over 90% for disasters in the 1990s.The
figures vary widely over the decades, a result that
can be attriouted to a few particularly terrible
disasters. Such as the 1976 Tangshan Earthquake
in China, which killed about 250,000, and a series
of severe cyclones that hit Bangladesh in 1970 with
a death toll of about 500,000. The death toll
resulting from wind and flood disasters jumped by
an order of magnitude in the 1990s. But this sudden
increase affected Asia's ratio to the world total by
about 15 percentage points because there was a
worldwide surge in this type of disaster. Clearly,
there is an extreme concentration of victims of such
disasters in Asia, Another substantial increase is
clear in the value of damage caused by typhoons
and cyclones; it is now running at 10 times the level
of the 1980s. Again, however, the ratio has
remained almost unchanged, at about 40%, because
hurricanes in Central and North America account
for more than 50% of the world total (51.2%,58.5%,
and 54.4% in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s,
respectively).
It is sadly worth noting that there has been
conspicuous growth in the absolute value of damage
in both Asia and the Americas. The conclusions we
draw from the above results are corroborated by
other statistics. Take for example the number of
cases where material assistance and international
emergency relief activities have been provided to
disaster areas around the world by the Japan
International Cooperation Agency (JICA). There
were 187 such occurrences between October 1987
and September 1998, of which 41 were for wind and
flood disasters in Asia and 11 for earthquake or
tsunami disasters in Asia. The ratio of assistance
to Asia for all types of natural disaster, including
volcanic eruption and landslide. This indicates that
disast~rs in Asia account for almost 40% of the
world total, while the death toll in Asia is over 40%
and the number of people affected is slightly less'
than 90%. The latter figure is about 2.2 times the
ratio of number of occurrences in Asia. To
summarize the discussion so far, wind and flood
disasters in Asia far outnumber any other type of
disaster in frequency, death toll, people affected,
and value of damage. According to data accumu-
lated over the past 25 years, natural disasters in
Asia account for about 40% of the world total, While
the death toll ratio is about 50% and the number of
people affected about 90%, meaning that damage
to human life is more prominent than other types
of damage.
The large tsunami, which struck 11 of the
nations, was a complete surprise for the people
leaving there, but not for the scientists who are
aware of the tectonic interactions in the region.
Many seismic networks recorded the massive
earthquake, but there was no tide gauges or other
wave sensors to provide confirmation as to whether
a tsunami had been generated. There was no
established communication network or organisa-
tional infrastructure to pass a warning of any kind
to the people of coastlines. No tsunami warning
system exist in the Indian Ocean as there is for
Pacific. The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in
Honolulu had no way of providing warning
information to the region. Part of the problem is
that most of the countries in the region have
underestimated their potential tsunami threat from
the Northern end. of the Sunda Trench. Review of
the historical records would have revealed that that
a very destructive Tsunami occurred in 1941, in the
same general area. That particular tsunami killed
more than 5000 people in the eastern coast ofIndia"
but it was mistaken as a short surge. Thousands
must have gotten killed elsewhere in the islands of
the Bay of Bengal in 1941, but there has been no
sufficient documentation (Shefard et.al 1950).
Unfortunately, the Regional Tsunami Warning
System, Preparedness Program, or effective
Communication Plan exists in for this part of the
world.
Based on the plate tectonics of the convergence
zone that formed the Sunda Trench and on the
aftershock distribution, the tsunami generating
area is believed to be somewhat irregular, broken
up with a North-South orientation. The major axis
of the ellipsoid is estimated to be approximately
1000 to 1200 km and its minor axis to be about
200km. It is believed that the ellipsoid type of block
movement occurred along an oblique but very
shallow subduction angle and that the Burma Plate
was thrust upward by several meters with an
oblique lateral of as much as 15 meters. A
preliminary estimate is that the tsunami generating
Volume2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
33
Mrinal K. Ghose
area involved a total area of about 300, 000 square
kilometres of the ocean floor.
Most of the stress and energy that had
accumulated were released by t}1e crustal
movement that caused the earthquake. The
subduction of the India tectonic plate underneath
the Burma plate caused upward thrusting of an
extensive block and generated the destructive
tsunami. It is unlikely that another major
earthquake will occur in the region in the near
future, ~ut stress will start building up again.
Although the danger of another major tsunami has
passed, a strong after shock in the region could
possibly generate a small local tsunami in the
immediate area affected by the earthquake.
Aftershocks can be expected to last for many days
and even weeks and months in the region, but they
. should diminish in strength with the passage of
material t~at was moved during the major
earthquake. The aftershocks represent nature's way
of restoring stability and temporary equilibrium.
Although it Js unlikely tat a destructive tsunami
will occur again soon in the same region, caution is
advised for the coastal residents in Northern
Sumatra and in the Andaman and Nicobar islands.
If the aftershock is strong enough and it is strongly
felt, evacuation to higher elevation is advised. In
fact, strong shaking of the ground is nature's
warning that tsuna1lli may be imminent.
9.0 DISASTER PREVENTION POTENTIAL
OF SOCIETIES
The developing countries like India along with
the rest of the world, suffer from the three-pronged
threat of decelerating economic growth,
environmental degradation, and population growth.
Overall degradation of the global environment has
caused a collapse of both natural and semi-natural
ecosystems, resulting in increased numbers of
natural disasters. Further, rapid urbanization and
the concentration of population in cities has had
the effect of magnifying the severity of those natural
disasters that affect urban areas. It is clearly
apparent that a "vicious cycle" exists in the
relationship between disasters in developing
countries and poverty there. First, provincial areas
with a population consisting mostly of farmers
experience recurring natural disasters as a result
of population growth according to the following
process:
(1) The area of productive land per head of
population can only fall as population
increases; as a consequence, the population
moves onto unsuitable and vulnerable land, in
many increasing the ftequency and severity of
disasters.
(2) Farmers settling on land unsuitable for crops
suffer damage from disasters, further
deepening their poverty.
Stricken farmers either go to town for work or
become tenant farmers, thus finding themselves
trapped in deep poverty. On the other hand, large
cities (including capital cities) also suffer froin
population inflow and experience disasters with
increasing frequency and severity as follows:
(i) Chronic delays in the provision of social
infrastructure force 30% to 60% of people to
live in closely confined, overly populated areas
such as slums.
(Population growth in slums is typically double
that in other city areas.)
(ii) Sprawling residential development encroaches
into disaster-prone areas.
(iii) The mixing of residential and manufacturing
functions, and concentrations of dangerous
materials in cities, increases the likelihood of
secondary disaster.
Disaster prevention can be in a technical sense
be categorized into two types of approach: "soft"
countermeasure and "hard" countermeasure.
Satisfactory implementation of both approaches to
disaster prevention depends on the availability of
money and information. In other words, a country
needs to be richer to be resistant to disaster. It is
revealed that average life expectancy is one
appropriate and general index of degree of
affluence. The United Nations then defined the
human development index (HDI) as a standard
measure ofthe standard ofliving in a country. The
HDI takes into account gross domestic product,
average life expectancy, and educational a~{lin-
ment. And the closer its value is to the higher the
standard of living. Countries are ranked into three
categories depending on the value of this index: the
top is for HDls of 0.8 or more, the mid for HDls
from 0.5 to 0.799, and the low for those less than
0.5. Population growth greater than 2%, while GNP
per capita is as low as 300 USD or less and the
average life expectancy less than 60 years.
10.0 APPROPRIATE DISASTER PREVEN-
TION STANDARDS
The 21st century is expected to be a period in
which cities are the most prominent social feature.
One of the implications of this is the certainty that
major disasters will affect cities. With approxi-
mately 50 countries in Asia, there is considerable
danger in discussing a single form of disaster
prevention for all of them, since their capacity to
handle disasters varies greatly. What, then, should
we do about standards for these countries?
Volume 2014-15. Number 1 . April 2014
34
JI~:a~ K. Ghose
Countries with lower HDI values are either too
budget-restricted to make direct investments in
disaster prevention or, even in cases where funds
are available, their investments are far less
effective than expected. As a result, the disaster
death toll does not fall despite of their efforts. One
possible solution to this would be indirect
investment, whereby a,disaster prevention strategy
is incorporated into the regular public works
function. On the othe'r hand, for countries ranked
in the mid or upper categories, direct investment
in disaster prevention is more effective, Although
one may question whether such investment is as
competitive cost-wise as in other types of project.
The answer is certainly "yes" if the social value of a
person's life is fully quantified, and this is clearly
the tendency today When this concept was applied
after the Ha:p.shin-Awaji Earthquake, the social
value put 'on the life of a Japanese citizen was
calculated to be about 250'million yen. On this basis,
250 billion yen invested in disaster prevention
efforts to prevent the death of 1000 people is
justifiable. Naturally, the application of this concept
will result in a great gap between the value of a
person in a developing country and in an advanced
country, since it depends on prices, gross domestic
product, and other factors unique to each country.
11;0 CON9LUSIO~
There is an increasing urbanization and
degradation of the natural environment on a global
scale. They are having the effect of increasing the
. frequency and severity of disasters around the
world. With the problem centering on developing
countries India suffers most from these disasters.
In this ongoing century, it is certain that disaster
will become' a major concern T!1e importance of
forecasting, satellite and remote sensing,
computerized systems of vulnerability and risk
assessment and other technologies for warning and
monitoring cannot be ignored. It is suggested that
seismic resistant buildings and structures must be
a part of sanctioning building plan. The developing
countries, though they do have civil engineering
researchers, generally have no civil engineering
academic association that pulls them all together.
This creates an environment where. in a public work
project, technical issues fall by the wayside and
politicians and bureaucrats make the dee:sions.
This discussion may have provided guideili1es for
analysis of the current situation in India with
respect to disaster management.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS:
The author is thankful to All India Council of
Technical Education, New Delhi for their financial
Support in the form of Emeritus Fellowship and to
West Bengal University of Technology, Kolkata for
providing infrastrural facilities for the work.
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Mrinal K. Ghose
specific reference to Tripura, Awareness
Campaign on Digester Managent in Tripura
State, Amarpur, February
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Digester Management in Tripura State.
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36
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