How To Make Money in The Stock Market

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WWW.SIMPLERSTOCKS.COM
Table Of Contents
Introduction...........................................................................................3-4
Stock Market Lifecycles.........................................................................5-6
Who Are We Trading Against?.................................................................7-9
How Do Funds Invest?..........................................................................10-14
Sector Rotation...................................................................................15-18
The Bond Market..................................................................................19-21
Aussie/Yen Carry Trade..................................................................... 22-24
When leaders Fall...............................................................................25-30
The Feds Impact on the Markets.........................................................31-36
Portfolio Management.........................................................................37-39
Conclusion...............................................................................................40
Introduction
I
dont
know
how many of you

remember
the
Vice
Presidential Debate in
1992 where General
Stockdale opened it
with,
Who
am
Why am I here?
I?
I
started working with

John Carter in 2011, but I have been trading ever since I was a
teenager.
My stepfather was a floor trader on the Chicago
Board of Options Exchange for 17 years, so I got interested in

the stock market at a young age. I started looking at charts
with him as a teenager and helping him trade. I placed my first
trade when I was 18. I was fascinated with the market through
college, and with entrepreneurialism.
I started several failed
businesses.
Eventually I was working as an analyst for a Fortune 100
company when I started an Internet company that ended up
doing pretty well. It afforded me the ability quit my job and do
that full time. I started getting back into trading. When I got
back into trading, I had my ups and downs. And there were the
ups: In 2008, I had a $75,000 account that I doubled in six

months. I was always good at picking major turning points in
the market, so in September 08 I traded really well. I traded
the crash in September of 08, did really well, and traded the
account very well until the following year.
Those are the ups, but as all traders know, we have our
downs too. This is a picture of Forrest Gump. You know, Im
not a smart man, Jenny. Thats how I felt when I proceeded to
blow out my $150,000 over the next 18 months of trading. I
still had a passion for trading, though, and I wanted to learn
more about it. I had all these Internet skills, building an online
business, and thats when I met John, who, obviously, is a
master trader. He was trying to get some of these websites going
and I was interested in the market. He needed somebody to help
him run some of the companies, and I helped John and Henry
launch Simpler Options in 2012, and then John and I cofounded
Simpler Stocks in 2013.
I am back into trading again. I have definitely turned the corner,

with Johns help, and become a consistent trader. Lets dive in.
STOCK MARKET LIFE CYCLES

One important thing to know is the stock market doesnt go
up or down forever. There is an ebb and flow to the markets,
and the markets are like a digestive system.
The larger the
meal you have, the longer it takes to digest. If you have a full,
large pizza, youre probably going to be sleeping that off for
about 12 hours. If you have a green health shake or something
like that, youve got instant energy. The market is constantly
digesting moves on every timeframe, whether its a five minute
chart, or the weekly chart.
Lets take the NASDAQ on 5/7/14 for example: On the five

minute, we had this big flush in the morning. It was a big move.
Then what happened? Well, the market needs to digest that, and
we just basically chopped around all day, and gained back some
of those losses. You can look at this on a daily chart also, the
market comes down violently, but then it retraces back. Its
digesting that move. It comes down and then it needs time to
digest it.
The same thing happens on the upside.
Markets go up,
and then they take a pause. They come back down a little bit.
They digest the move, and then they keep going. Thats just how
markets work. Theres an ebb and flow to them.
WHO ARE WE TRADING AGAINST?
One thing that is important to be aware of is who makes up
the market.
Who are we trading against?
Most of them are
financial institutions, banks, asset management firms, insurance

companies, pension funds, hedge funds, and many more.
Above are some of the biggest companies, but the biggest

one is actually pension funds. Morgan Stanley estimates worldwide pension fund holds over $20 trillion in assets. Thats larger
than mutual funds, insurance companies, hedge funds, or private
equity.
The top 300 pension funds, collectively, hold $6 trillion in
assets. I know thats hard to get your mind. How big is that? If
you spent $1 million a day since the year zero through today,
you would have only spent $700 billion. You wouldnt even have
gotten to $1 trillion by spending $1 million a day for the last

2000 years! The national debt is $17.5 trillion, so that means
the worldwide pension fund holder assets is more than the
entire U.S. debt. These guys are a Godzilla in the market, and
when they have to take positions in stocks, they have to take
large positions of stocks.
Do the pension funds invest in the stock market? They

absolutely do. Although its gone down since the late 90s and
2000s, still more than half of pension funds are held in stocks.
For example, those top 300 companies that hold $6 trillion in
assets, $3 trillion of that is held in the stock market.
These pension funds, are they the big bad guys? Theyre
not. We usually vilify the hedge funds or the high frequency traders
or the major institutions, but its hard to vilify pension funds.
California state teachers, for example is a $139 billion fund; the
California public employees, $214 billion; Texas teachers, $100
billion; New York City retirement, $115 billion. For companies,
General Motors has the largest pension fund in the country,
$102 billion. IBM also has a large pension fund, around $80 billion.
These are funds are for retirees, and they should absolutely
be invested. Teachers, government employees, long term employees
from major companies, should be absolutely taken care of in
their retirement.
HOW DO FUNDS INVEST?

It is important to understand how pension funds and other
financial institutions invest. Lets say youre a portfolio manager
for a modest size pension fund out of Boston. You have $10
billion to invest in stocks. Again, thats modest. We saw some of
those other pension funds that are $100 billion, $200 billion.
This ones a modest sized, $10 billion. You do your research.
You find a small, fast growing semiconductor company called
SunPower. You decide to put 2% of your funds into the stock,
or $200 million.
The stock is trading at $32 per share. Now, in order to get
your full position, you need to buy over 6 million shares of
stock. Do you just submit a market order, 6 million shares at
$32 a share? Then youre filled, and youre done. Unfortunately,
it is not that simple, because the average daily volume on SPWR
is 3.2 million shares a day, so their position size alone would be
double that. Remember, this is just 2% of their overall portfolio.
How do you buy a large amount of shares without drastically
increasing the price? Its really not that hard. They do it by slow
and steady scaling. What pension fund managers will usually do
is theyll allow for 90 to 120 days for accumulation. Theyll have
a price range in mind, so theyll say, Hey, Im going to buy
some Sunpower between $32 and $32.50 a share. Im a buyer
all day long in that range. Im going to buy small blocks of those
shares because I dont want to alert any suspicion. Im just
going to slowly buy, you know, 10,000 shares, 20,000 shares.
Then if the stocks get too high, well, Ill just stop buying.
10
Then, sometimes if that doesnt bring the shares back down,

theyll even sell some of their shares in order to bring the price
back down. Thats important to know. Even though theyre thinking
that the stock is going up, they dont want to alert any suspicion or
any volume scans that say, Hey, somethings going on with SunPower. They want to just do it on the stealth mode. Theyll even
sell some of their shares to bring the stock back down.
This is a long process, and the goal is to blend in, not alert
anyone that theyre there, that thats what theyre doing. I found
this little meme. I thought this was great with the sheepdog that
says, Day 33, they still suspect nothing. Thats exactly what
institutions and pension funds do. They kind of try to blend their
orders in with the rest of the market, not alert suspicion, but slowly
accumulate.
A great example is the stock UBNT. This stock was in a

steep uptrend. It went from around $12 a share and quadrupled
over the past year.
11
As John always likes to point out, there are quiet periods in

the market and then theres times when the stock explodes.
There was a period where funds were stealthily buying the
stock. Im sure they were still buying it throughout. You can always
12
recognize when funds are buyers, because the chart has a staircase
pattern. You can tell that theyre just constantly supporting the
market because theyre becoming such large holders of the supply
that theyre holding up the price. Its hard for the price to really get
whacked too hard if the institutions are not participating in the selling.
LSCC is stock were in right now. Volume looks pretty
good. Up days have a lot more volume than down days. Up day
had 10 million shares, and down days had half that volume.
13
It has 6 million shares going up, and then it comes back

down on 5 million shares. Up day, 4 million, goes back down on
3 million. The way I always look at price and volume, its sort of
like a store. Lets say you go into a shoe store and one day you
are in there, the price of the shoes is $100 and there are a lot
of people wanting to buy those shoes. The next day you go in
the store, the shoes are still priced at $100, but theres nobody
in the store. The price can still move without volume, but the
volume gives it the conviction, and thats what you want. You
want to see conviction in the move before you put in your hard
earned money into it.
SECTOR ROTATION
I love this from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, I want

it now. Whats happening with the markets now? What are the
institutions doing and how do we know? We as retail investors
14
have the luxury of being able to quickly go in cash and stay

there. Institutional fund managers always need to have their
funds in something. Their idea is losing less is better than losing
more, so they rather lose 10% than lose 40%. Theres a saying,
usually its like in the business world, No one got fired for
buying IBM. Its the same thing with fund managers. You
know, if youre buying the state secure stocks, youre not going
to get fired for that. Those stocks docks move in a much less
volatile than the speculative group stocks.
Usually what happens is money goes from those speculative
stocks to more safe stocks. Thats something we call sector
rotation. How sector rotation is defined? When a fund manager
shifts investments from one asset class to another, different
sectors perform better at different times. When fund managers get
nervous, they move funds from speculative growth stocks to
conservative investments like utilities and consumer staples.
One ETF that we can look at, to see if this is what fund
managers are doing, is XLU.
15
XLU is utilities. On the weekly chart of XLU, XLU is by far

outperforming the market. Even if you take a strong index like
the S&P, for example, the XLU made a new high May 1st 2014,
while the S&Ps new high a month before that. So, over the
month, while the S&Ps have flat lined, the Dow has flat lined
and the Russell and NASDAQ were in a down trend, the XLU has
been going up.
These utility companies are like Duke Energy, most type of
energy companies are a necessity for people. People are going
to spend money on electricity, so thats why money flows into
that sector. Theyre necessities for people. Its the same thing
with XLP.
16
These are consumer staples; this is your Procter & Gambles

of the world. People are going to buy tissue paper and cleaning
products. It is the same thing with XLU, its just been going
straight higher for two months or so, outperforming the rest of
the market, which has, flat lined or been in a downtrend.
17
THE BOND MARKET

The bond market is
another
area
where
people go to put money

into
something
safe.
Check out the picture to

the left, Not 3 to 10
working days, when I say
I want my money back, I
want it back now, Thats
what fund managers buy
bonds
for.
The
bond
market is the second most liquid market in the world, so it

makes it very easy to get in, buy a lot, park a lot of money there
and then be able to take it out quickly. The bond markets in
Europe are going up as well as the U.S.
For those of you that are not familiar with looking at the
futures market in ThinkorSwim, /ZB is the U.S. Treasury
bond futures market.
18
19
From 2014 until now, there was a kind of a nice, steady uptrend, and this is exactly what were talking about with funds
buying. Theres a huge move, it digests the move then it makes
another big move. The volume on an up day, for example, has
1.8 billion futures contracts trading hands. When you compare
that to the down days, it is roughly almost half the volume.
20
AUSSIE CARRY TRADE

What is the Aussie carry trade what are currencies? Although,
I dont trade currencies, the currency market is the number one
market in the world.
How Big are the Markets
STOCKS
The currency and futures markets are much larger than the
stocks and options markets. The other markets are going to
lead the stock market, especially the currencies and the bond
market. What is the Aussie Yen Carry Trade? The Aussie Yen is
what I like to call the hedge fund index. What funds do is theyll
borrow currency from one stable country with the lowest interest
rates possible. Right now in the current macro environment
today, that is Japan. They are a first world country and a stable
country. They have a stable government, but their interest
rates are at 0% and they have been for quite a while.
21
What hedge funds do is theyll convert that currency from

yen into the currency of another stable country with the highest
interest rates, and that country right now is Australia. Australia
is, of course, first world country, great country, a lot of natural
resources, growing economy. Although, the crash in 08 and09
sunk most countries around the world into a recession, Australias
economy stayed strong, and therefore, their interest rates
stayed strong. I think theyre about 4.5% right now. Conversely,
other countries with large economies like Japan and the U.S.
have had to push their rates down to zero. Australia is therefore
a great alternative.
When fund managers are putting risk on, theyre buying
more speculative assets. Theyre willing to take that risk of running
the carry trade to get that 4.5% Aussie interest and buy assets
with it. When the carry trade unwinds, theyre converting Aussie
dollars back to Yen to pay back what they borrowed. Funds do
this when theyre taking a risk off position or, i.e., selling their
speculative assets.
In short, you dont need to trade currencies to understand
it. Really all you have to understand is this right here. When
the yen is going higher, funds are paying back their yen
debt and taking off risk, i.e., selling stocks. When the yen
is going lower, funds are borrowing more yen and taking
more speculative positions, i.e., theyre buying stocks.
22
Whats the yen doing now on May 7th? Lets get back to the
charts and take a look here.
Once again, strong up days are going up on high volume.

Then the days where its coming back down, volume kind of
creeps back down.
What this means is, the fund managers are in a position
where theyre trying to take off a risk. Theyre unwinding the
carry trade and taking off their speculative positions.
23
WHEN LEADERS FALL

Leaders are stocks that were institutional favorites at one
time. These are the stocks that have doubled and tripled during
the market run up, but now they are underperforming. Leaders
that run up the fastest, also fall down the fastest. In fact, youll
notice that they fall faster than the overall market. Remember
those speculative stocks that were talking about, they were
piling into the market, letting those stocks run up. Now that
they are trying to take off risk, theyre stampeding to the door,
trying to find an exit.
That means there are more sellers than buyers. When the
price comes down, it comes down pretty viciously. At the same
time, when theyre selling these speculative assets, they need
to put the money into something, and thats where that
sector rotation comes into play.
We saw what those safer asset classes are doing, like the
XLP, XLU, and the bond market. Now, how are the speculative
stocks doing? Netflix, Yahoo, Priceline. How have they been
holding up?
Lets take a look at some of these stocks. Im going to pull
up Netflix during one point of its uptrend in 2013.
24
There is an uptrend here; it is classic institutional buying.

They just keep buying it and buying it. As you can see, it rarely
broke down at the 50 day moving average. Even when it did go
down, the volume was very light. The down days had just a
couple million shares traded, whereas, the up days had 6.5 million
shares traded.
25
This is a one year chart. You can see, when it broke down
below the 50 day, it did it with heavy volume. The volume is
accelerating on the downside. For the first time in a long time it
tested the 200 day. The 200 day is very important because a lot
of institutions use the 200 day moving average as an area of
26
support. You can see it bounced up there, fell through it, came
back up above it, and once again broke it with volume and now
it hasnt been able to get back above the 200 day. Now its
using that support as resistance.
If you compare that to the overall market, the NASDAQs

still not below the 200 day moving average. Right now you can
see its still trading above the 200 day.
27
28
Lets take a look at one of the other leaders. Qihoo is a

Chinese company. This is forming a nice base here and then its
just been taking off into this huge, huge move up. Again,
formed a nice base just going sideways, digesting this move,
and then moved again. Thats almost a tripling.
I think the overall NASDAQ was up like 40% or so during
this time, while Qihoo was up 200% - a stock that just completely
outperformed the overall market. What happened with this one,
well, the same thing as Netflix. It broke the 50 day moving
average, high volume, volume accelerating, came back up.
Then used the 50 day now as resistance, fell right to the 200
day. As you can see, it looked like they were holding it up above
the 200 day for a week or so, or maybe in a couple weeks, and
now its broken down.
29
THE FEDS IMPACT ON THE S&P
What we can see here is the feds impact on the S&Ps. This
was a Goldman Sachs study. This grey period here is when
there was no policy and you can see it was just down to sideways, action. The fed came in, did another QE, market rallied
again. Fed decided they were going to stop the printing presses
for a few months and the market didnt take too kindly to that.
They started buying bonds, and they were buying close to
$85 billion a month. This was pure quantitative easing, money
printing, and the stock market responded nicely to that. They also
responded and I think its termed operation twist and then
QE4. This chart above goes to January 2013, but obviously we
know what happened in 2013. The stock market had one of its
30
best years where it went up 30%. That was after four quantitative
easing sessions.
Whats happening now is the fed is trimming back and they
are starting to cut their monthly bond purchases by $10 billion.
Currently, theyre down from $85 billion to $45 billion. The feds
role in the economy is like a big game of Monopoly, and the fed
is the banker. When the fed creates more money for everyone
to play with, the more Park Avenue houses you can buy, and the
more the stock market goes higher, and then the inverse is true
when the fed starts tightening the spigot.
The market is always changing, and the fed is one of the
drivers of that change.
I dont want all this to be doom and gloom. Were not looking
for another big market crash, so its important to keep the big, big
picture in mind, which is that the stock market always goes
through many booms and bust cycles. The stock market has been
trading for a long time, almost 200 years.
Market started with 12 guys under a buttonwood tree in New
York City. We have had charts for the last 100 years. What they have
showed us is that the market goes through all these periods of rising
and then correcting.
Its important to note that the market events of 1929, 87,
and the one in 2008 are all very rare events. Theyve only
31
happened three times in the last 100 years. This is not the norm
by any stretch of the imagination. A normal bull market lasts
about three to five years. A bear market lasts nine to 20
months. Typically you see a correction of 10% to 30%, and the
average correction being 20%. Right now on the NASDAQ were
right at about 10%. I think if you do the math on the low of the
NASDAQ from whatever that was, a week or two ago, its about
right at 10%. I mean, Im expecting more of a 20% correction,
which is an average correction. We can take a look at a few
charts about that.
32
One thing thats interesting about the year 2000 is its a little
similar to whats going on now, and thats where the NASDAQ kind
of just tanked first. It certainly hasnt been as extreme this go
around as it was in 2000. As you can see, very similar of whats
going on today. This is the SPX back in 2000. As we saw for the
NASDAQ, you saw that just huge, just a big correction around this
March, April timeframe. What was the S&P doing? It was just flat
lining, and it flat lined for a while. You had the highs here in March
of 2000, and it really didnt go anywhere all.
Here, this is September, even, before that finally started to break

down, and you kind of had a confirmed downtrend in the S&P. That
wasnt until later 2000. We can jump back to the NASDAQ.
33
You can see the NASDAQ here made its high in March of
2000, as well, and as you can see, just right away just got
creamed. This is two months later and the NASDAQ has gone from
4800 to 2800. I mean, like a 30% correction in just two months
while the S&P was just flat lining. It kind of reminds me of that time
period for that reason, and thats kind of what we try to, as stock
analysts, is go back and say, Okay, where in the past have we
seen a market like this and what happened and whats the
34
likelihood of something similar to that happening again?

Im really not expecting something as significant as this
move here. This was a 80% correction. The move in the
NASDAQ that weve had in the last six weeks has been a very
orderly downtrend. It hasnt been an extremely violent, 800
point range. Thats about a 20% percent range for one week. If
we equate that to today: The NASDAQ is at about 3500, youre
talking about a 700 point range. Were not seeing that at all,
that type of crazy volatility. Its much more orderly.
35
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
NUMBER OF STOCKS
We want to trade our portfolios like professionals, and professional
portfolio managers, they dont try to manage dozens of positions.
Trying to keep up with that many stocks is crippling. You rarely
should own more than eight stocks. If you own too many stocks,
it could cause you to miss important opportunities that are setting
up in the market, because all of your capital and all of your
mental energy is focused on the 30 stocks that you have and
that youre trying to manage.
DIVERSIFICATION
Diversification is a story and its sold to the public to make them
feel better about putting their money in to the stock market.
Professional portfolio managers do not diversify. If they are
investing in stocks, they dont invest in every single sector.
Depending on whats happening in the market, they are very
much concentrated in just certain areas of the market. Theyre
focused on growth and capital preservation.
RISK TOLERANCE
Whether you have been trading stocks for a long time and
youre managing several million dollars, or if youre newer to
stock trading, what you want to do is assess your risk tolerance.
You want to look at the current market outlook. Whats my
36
investment experience? What is the allocation of my account

towards growth stocks? What about my position size?
SCALING INTO A TRADE
We highly recommend scaling into a trade, and this is
something that were going to be doing in our portfolio. This is
what I love about the stock market and it is something you can
ONLY do in the market. If you bet on a horse race, you cant
change your bet in the middle of the race, but if you buy a
stock, you can buy a half size position and then change your bet
accordingly. This gives you the flexibility to change your bet
based on what the stock is doing. You can add more shares or
you can cut the position loose with minimum damage to your
overall portfolio.
I own it. Now what? In the words of Jesse Livermore,
Money is made by sitting, not trading. We want to be patient.
Honestly, we dont know whats going to happen with the stock.
It could double in three weeks. It could double in three months.
We could get stopped out. We dont know. But I do know that
your money, as Jesse Livermore said, is made in the sitting and
being patient.
STOPS
Setting stops are important, but we want to set stops according
to the ATR. ATR stands for average true range. This is
37
the average range that the stock moves in a given day or week,
depending on what timeframe youre looking at. What we want
to do is we want to be just outside of that, so we dont want to
get caught up in the average daily move of the stock, and get
taken out just by a normal move that the stock will do.
Depending on these lower price stocks, these young
stocks, growth stocks, speculative stocks, theres increased risk
there. The average range for those stocks is going to be greater,
because those stocks are more volatile. Risk tolerance and position
size comes into play here.
EXAMPLE
Im going to go through an example with you. These are
my rules for the portfolio on Simpler Stocks. They dont have to
be yours. I would even recommend they not be. You want to do
something thats more tailored to you, but this is a guide. My
risk tolerance is: Im willing to lose a max 2% of the overall
portfolio on any one trade. That means, if Im trading a
$100,000 account, I dont want to lose more than $2000. That
means my max position size on this would be 2000 shares. That
would be a calculation that youll want to do with your own
account, depending on your risk tolerance.
Now whats my current market outlook? Is the stock
market in a downtrend? I say, I do want to be very cautious on
38
the long side. This means Im not using any margin right now.
Again, this is my account size, separate $100,000 account.
Thats just specifically for growth stocks. The reason why I put
that in there is because I know some of you guys have just one
account where youre just doing everything, and youre doing
options trading, futures trading and stocks trading. Whatever
you allocate to just stocks is what you want to then use, not
your overall account.
You may have $100,000 account, but youre doing income
options trades, options trades, and so forth. If youre only putting $25,000 of the $100,000 into speculative growth stocks,
you want to use $25,000 as your portfolio size for those stocks.
Again, because Im very cautious of the market (at the time of
this writing), my plan is to start with five positions using a max
10% of my account on each position.
I want you to ask yourself what youre willing to risk on
each trade, what your current market outlook is. It doesnt have
to be mine or Johns, but you should have your own perspective
on it. Whats your investing experience?
39
Conclusion
This was written on May 7th 2014, but the principles discussed
here are applicable to any market environment. With time
and patience you can learn how the markets work. Trading is
alluring for the great rewards and freedom it provides. If you
always have the risks at the forefront of your mind youll be
ahead of the curve. Trading is a journey not a destination. The
markets are constantly evolving and every trader must stay
current in order to be successful.
-To continue this journey with us visit www.SimplerStocks.com

-If you would like to try Simpler Stocks for 30 days for only $7
use this special link: www.SimplerStocks.com/1
40

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CREATED BY:

how many of you

started working with

My stepfather was a floor trader on the Chicago

Board of Options Exchange for 17 years, so I got interested in

I started several failed

ups: In 2008, I had a $75,000 account that I doubled in six

I am back into trading again. I have definitely turned the corner,

STOCK MARKET LIFE CYCLES

The larger the

Lets take the NASDAQ on 5/7/14 for example: On the five

Who are we trading against?

Most of them are

financial institutions, banks, asset management firms, insurance

Above are some of the biggest companies, but the biggest

gotten to $1 trillion by spending $1 million a day for the last

Do the pension funds invest in the stock market? They

HOW DO FUNDS INVEST?

Then, sometimes if that doesnt bring the shares back down,

A great example is the stock UBNT. This stock was in a

As John always likes to point out, there are quiet periods in

It has 6 million shares going up, and then it comes back

I love this from Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, I want

have the luxury of being able to quickly go in cash and stay

XLU is utilities. On the weekly chart of XLU, XLU is by far

These are consumer staples; this is your Procter & Gambles

THE BOND MARKET

people go to put money

Check out the picture to

market is the second most liquid market in the world, so it

AUSSIE CARRY TRADE

How Big are the Markets

What hedge funds do is theyll convert that currency from

Once again, strong up days are going up on high volume.

WHEN LEADERS FALL

There is an uptrend here; it is classic institutional buying.

If you compare that to the overall market, the NASDAQs

Lets take a look at one of the other leaders. Qihoo is a

THE FEDS IMPACT ON THE S&P

Here, this is September, even, before that finally started to break

likelihood of something similar to that happening again?

investment experience? What is the allocation of my account

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