Oliver Mawhinney

"Discuss the strength of evidence for an anthropogenic (human-made) influence on

recent climate change"
A scientific consensus largely identifies the 0.74C global temperature increase from 1906
to 2005 (IPCC, 2007) as evidence of the anthropogenic-responsible enhanced greenhouse
effect. The IPCC (2007) conclude that such an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations
results in radiative forcing of the climate system whereby increased atmospheric heat
radiation is absorbed leading to an enhanced greenhouse effect. Anderegg et al (2010)
contends that humans have been responsible for most of the unequivocal warming of
the Earth's average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century (p.3).
However, supported by many business leaders and publicised with considerable media
coverage, a vocal minority of researchers contest the conclusions of the mainstream
scientific assessment (Anderegg, 2010, p3). This essay will therefore discuss the strength
of evidence surrounding the anthropogenic impacts upon recent climate change.

Much of the evidence contesting the anthropogenic influences on climate change have
been presented by experts, however issue of credibility surrounding experts.
(Anderegg et al, 2010). In a database of 1372 climate researchers, only 2.5% of the top
200 researchers were climate sceptic towards anthropogenic climate change.

Although 97% of self-identified actively publishing climate scientists are in agreement

with the tenets of anthropogenic climate change, media debates often have to
represent both sides of the argument (Anderegg et al, 2010).

Correlation of carbon dioxide emissions increase with temperature, leading to The

National Academy of Sciences to report: Greenhouse gases are accumulating in
Earths atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures
and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise [p1 in (5)]. But private incentives of
firms/governments attempt to discredit this (Oreskes, 2004).

Recent environmental impacts such as shrinking glaciers in every continent, shifts in

the spring peak of river discharge associated with earlier snowmelt and river warming
(Rosenzweig et al, 2008, p.353) are unlikely to be entirely due to natural variability
(p.354)

This is represented in case study: the retreat of two glaciers in Switzerland and Norway
cannot be explained by natural variability of climate and glacier mass balance
(Rosenzweig et al, 2008)-

Issue of climate variability as a cause for discredit but carbon dioxide concentrations
exceed natural range over last 650,000 years (IPCC, 2007)

Eleven of the last twelve years (19952006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the
instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850) but difficultly in
documenting data from some areas such as Africa (IPCC, 2007)

In conclusion, the increase in the global atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from
a pre-industrial value of about 280 ppm to 379 ppm in 2005 has correlated with a 0.74C
temperature increase from 1906 to 2005 (IPCC, 2007). During the same period a range of
environmental changes have occurred, such as warming of the oceans and mass ice loss
leading to the IPCC (2007) asserting that it is extremely unlikely that global climate
change of the past 50 years can be explained without external forcing. However, much a
vocal minority, often with vested interests, contest; the IPCCs assertion is representative
of a legitimate consensus supported by 97% of self-identified actively publishing climate
scientists (Anderegg et al, 2010).