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Hail to ‘El Nino’, the Supertrades are back!!!

Just got a letter from some good friends sitting in Pago Pago and thinking
about heading west soon…..
It highlighted the weather situation in that region and the need to pay
careful attention; their letter was dated 1st Sept.

“A boat here in American Samoa threw caution away, and left for
Tonga during this past week - they reported a brutal passage on their
catamaran. The winds for the last week have hovered around 25-30 knots,
and won't ease until next Monday”

I checked my files and dug out Passage Weather issued on 19thAug going
through to the 27th Aug. Clearly the forecast indicated fresh to strong
winds from forward of the beam on both 26th and 27th. 15 and 20Kt areas
are indicated on the map so locally 20 to 25kt winds, with higher gusts would
have been quite likely.

I don’t know about you but we wouldn’t think of trying to get to windward in
those conditions and having a go in anything but a heavy duty, deep keel boat
would be mighty uncomfortable to say the least!
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We have returned to El Nino and this is a return to the more ‘settled’

conditions of yore… Hence the Supertrades are back and they are
particularly relevant between 15S and 22S, from 160W all the way to the
coast of Australia.

Statistically they will tell you that the West Pac area will receive lighter
conditions during the El Nino period when compared with La Nina, well…
sailing statistically can get you into trouble here, for whilst the general
winds may be down there will be long periods where the isobars are
compressed in the area where most of us are cruising.

This is not unusual and after a while you just get used to it; last time in the
Pacific I had a deep keel and a racing boat that loved crashing to windward…
since then twenty years have passed, I have mellowed and I’ve changed to a
more ‘practical’ cruising boat. So, like most people on the circuit, getting
weather to suit our new situation in life is very important.
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Rule 1: WE DO
NOT CRASH TO
WINDWARD.

Playing the weather game was far more difficult in the past, now we have so
much information that it is coming out of our ears so I’m just going to
simplify it here.

In this region, the trade winds honk. La Nina or El Nino, they still honk when
they get going; more so mid season (June, July and August)! They honk even
more when there is a Big Fat High Pressure down to the south (somewhere
over NZ) and somewhat less when that area is ‘between high’s’ (or relatively
low).

Unfortunately, as you will notice, there is usually a nice big frontal trough on
a NNW / SSE line passing between the high pressure areas, originating from
some nasty LOW PRESSURE that’s kicking the teeth out of New Zealand.
As the front / trough (or whatever they are calling it) moves in your
direction, from the west; the trades slacken off and move to the NE. You
then have a ‘sloppy period’ where many things can happen before it
‘re-materializes’, building quickly from the SSE.

The thing to remember here is that the wind may be predominantly from the
East but the systems that generate it are moving towards the east (coming
from the west). So, as the winter High Pressure areas drift eastwards
across New Zealand and sometimes just north of New Zealand the isobars to
the north, in the trade wind zone, become compressed and the trade wind
honks.
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In this case you have about 48hrs of lighter (generally) Nly breezes
before the SEly returns

Above you can see I’ve amended the ‘Passage Weather’ plate to show the
Highs, Lows and where I’d expect a frontal line to be. As the line moves
East towards you the wind swings around anticlockwise and in the region of
20S there is quite an area of lighter winds shown. Whatever, there may still
be a strong “shearline” / “troughline” between the systems (not shown on
these charts and not shown on Gribs), this we have to watch for!

What happens in, and the length of, the ‘sloppy period’ is determined by
many factors, none of which are easy to predict……
Normally, things don’t get nasty until after the wind has passed west of
north, then you may get some fresh NWly’s; you may sail through a violent
front with heavy rain OR you may get light and variables for the duration. If
that is the case, you need to be able to motor as there will be quite a lumpy,
left-over sea and without power you’ll sit around bashing your gear about.

In the example I’ve laid out below, if you’d cleared out (Tuesday) and left
Pago Pago for Tonga on the Wednesday, early morning; there would have
been a window of about 48hrs to reach Tonga On the Wednesday morning,
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the wind would be dropping quickly but the sea would take a little longer. The
afternoon ‘honk’ would be ripping down each side of American Samoa but as
you move offshore it dies a little…….
By Thursday, early morning, you should still be creaming along with a good
breeze just abaft the beam but that breeze now lightens up fast. As it
lightens enough for you to do it comfortably, you’d best be trying to get left
of track. This also brings you ‘up’ a bit increasing relative wind and keeping
you moving.

How far left of track depends on what you expect to happen next but in this
case I’d say five to ten miles.. “Mr John should do 135/day in these
conditions so if you are faster stay closer to the line because you are going
to cover the 320 miles in the 48hr window.

BEFORE moving left of track…. Check that you have the time to make it to
Vava’u before the wind freshens up from the SSE; if you have any doubt,
now is the time to alter course for Niuatoputapu….Great place and a good
anchorage to wait till the next window (about a week)….
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Thursday midday (as shown below): The ‘Front’ is now approaching, during the
morning the wind goes light, more variable but remains in the north; you may
end up motoring and the sails won’t do a lot of good so its best to get a reef
in and take the ‘bag’ out of the mainsail…. As the day progresses you have to
watch in case the front is ‘active’ in your location.

HOWEVER, you do have to keep making progress, hopefully you get some
fresh NWly’s with the front because you need to push south and you have to
make distance.
These windows are never big enough and you are in a race to get under the
lee of Vava’u for sunrise on Friday because by then the wind is likely to be
filling in from the SSE.
Thursday Midnight and the situation still looks OK but close. With luck we
would be seeing the light on Vava’u in the early hours and with luck there
would have been enough wind for us to motor-sail these last few hours…. It’s
a bit tight for a small yacht however, if that wind fills in a little early then
things could get real tough and all this motoring could easily come to nought!

Perhaps a deviation to ‘Newpotatoes’ would have been the safest play….

Perhaps it would have been better to just head there in the first place?????
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Friday Midday (lets worry about the ‘day’ change when we are safely at
anchor!)…..The picture is clear, the frontal boundary has gone well passed
and the SSE is filling in fast at 15kts.

You are either arrived in Tonga or you are in “Newpotatoes”, waiting for
another window whilst enjoying yet another great pacific anchorage. Take
heed however, as every year someone ploughs into the reef here either
trusting the GPS / Nav plotter or trying to get in with poor visibility!
The northern coast of Vava’u has also seen a fair amount of wrecked yachts,
so it’s best to lay-off if there is any doubt.
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There are some rules which, when applied, will make life easier…..

1) If you get the chance to go south of track, do it because that

freshening SSE trade may come back early.

2) Don’t hang about in calms….motor like hell (I’m no purist!)

3) Reef early, reef deep….especially if you have any lightning visible, hear
thunder or see dark clouds to the NW.

4) If you get an adverse blow, Heave- to and let it all pass by whilst you
catch up on a novel. Do not run off to the east, SSE may be OK (if you
have to) but not East!
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5) Listen to what other boats around you are getting, especially those to
the west of you.

6) If you can shorten the distance, do so. Consider Niuatoputapu as

widows are not that long and this is a convenient stopover.

7) Never approach any island or reef in this area without GOOD

visibility, the islands here tend to move around a bit when you least
expect it!

8) If you can’t get to Double Reefed mainsail and a storm jib sized
headsail in less than three minuets …..you really need to practice!

9) Keep a couple of hatch-boards in and your cockpit drains free.

10) Don’t push it, if your window closes that SSE will only increase so look
to your alternative.

NOTE: More often than not, even with NO weather planning, this passage is
no problem for the average cruising boat; you really do have to be unlucky to
get your head blown off. However, it can be a really nice passage when you
just pay a little attention to those High Pressure Areas to the south and
time your passage accordingly.

You will note how we shift through the sequence from Wednesday to
Saturday and how that nasty Low Pressure forms in the disturbed air to the
NE of North Cape…..Its just a reminder of why only the ‘tough’ mess about
round New Zealand during their ‘winter’ period!!!

That’s about it except to mention PATIENCE, which is where most of us go

wrong, if you want to have a thrashing just ‘throw caution away’. I’m working
on patience but I have to admit…I do have some problems!
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‘Mr John IV’ with the cockpit partly covered due to large amount of ‘heads’
getting aboard on the Samoa to Tonga run; beam reaching in Supertrades!
Note that the windward ‘weather cloth’ got blown out, it was a trifle wet!

Have Fun and enjoy the sailing

John Wolstenholme 2nd Sept 09

yachtmrjohn.blogspot.com

yachtmrjohn@gmail.com