TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS MODELING AND EVALUATION

3.10

CHAPTER THREE

3.4.3 Operations

Studies of existing systems may include direct observations of their performance. Although
this is the most desirable method of evaluating existing systems, costs and measurement
difficulties often make modeling desirable. Transportation analysts try to replicate the existing system through its model, and outcome from the model is used to evaluate the systems
performance, detect operational problems, and evaluate possible solutions. Although this
approach brings to mind planning studies, there is a considerable differencenot future but
present traffic conditions are evaluated. Such studies are particularly justified if the considered improvements are low-cost and are implemented quickly. Signal retiming and reorganizing traffic circulation in the area are examples of such improvements.
Intelligent transportation systems require a new class of model applications. Advanced
travel information systems and advanced traffic management systems use fast models run in
real time to support real-time decisions about changes in schedules, signal retiming, and
traveler rerouting in response to planned events and unplanned incidents. Real systems are
simulated with a short time lag using real data. Short-term traffic prediction is desired to
foresee the near future. Only then can optimal traffic control and management strategies be
applied in a timely manner.

3.5

SELECTING A MODEL
Most of the available modeling tools are packages of models described in section 3.2. In
this section, the term model stands for a model package. The variety of transportation studies
and multiplicity of models make selection of a model difficult, and this section therefore is
written with inexperienced transportation analysts in mind who seek general guidance for
selecting a proper model.
A model is appropriate if it can do the job. Transportation analysts tend to seek a universal
model that can do most of the jobs, but it is doubtful that such a model exists. A model is
a simplification of reality and is developed as a result of a preassumed class of applications
that determine which simplifications are acceptable and which are not. If the model is used
for an application outside of the assumed class, then seemingly reasonable results may be
in fact inaccurate or even useless. Selection of a model therefore must consider the job and,
more precisely, the models applicability for the job. For example, traditional long-term
planning models estimate the travel times along links between nodes using the simplified
BPR function. These travel time estimates are sufficient to model network flows but are
useless if one wants to analyze, for instance, the performance of urban arterial streets during
special events.
A modeling job is specified sufficiently for model selection if the following is known:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Studied transportation system

Purpose of the modeling
Required output scope and format
Required accuracy of results (model validation and calibration)
Resources available for the modeling

3.5.1 Output Scope and Format

Transportation models are used to produce specific results. If a model does not produce what
is needed or the results are insufficient to calculate the needed outcome, then such a model
cannot be used.

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