China and the United States Are Preparing for War

Despite the Obama-Xi handshake deal, the

probability of confrontation will only
heighten as long as the PLA remains a
black box.

BY MICHAEL PILLSBURY-NOVEMBER 13, 2014

Ata Nov. 12 news conference in Beijing, General Secretary of

the Communist Party Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obamaagreed to
notify the other side before major military activities, and to develop a set of
rules of behavior for sea and air encounters, in order to avoid military
confrontations in Asia. "It's incredibly important that we avoid inadvertent
escalation," Ben Rhodes, a U.S. deputy national security
adviser, told the Wall Street Journal. An "accidental circumstance," he said,

could "lead into something that could precipitate a conflict."

Should we really be worried about war between the United States and
China? Yes. Over the last four decades of studying China, I have spoken
with hundreds of members of China's military, the People's Liberation Army
(PLA), and read countless Chinese military journals and strategy articles.
Chinese military and political leaders believe that their country is at the
center of American war planning. In other words, Beijing believes that the
United States is readying itself for the possibility of a conflict with China -and that it must prepare for that eventuality.

Tensions are high not just because of Beijing's rapidly expanding military
budget, or that the United States continues to commit an increasingly high
percentage of its military assets to the Pacific as part of its "rebalance"
strategy. Rather, the biggest problem is Chinese opacity. While it's
heartening to hear Xi agree to instruct the PLA to be more open with
regards to the United States, its doubtful this will lead to any real changes.
Washington is willing to share a substantial amount of military information
with China, in order to "reduce the chances of miscommunication,
misunderstanding or miscalculation," as then U.S. Defense Secretary Robert
Gates said during a Jan. 2011 trip to Beijing. But the Chinese leadership,
which benefits from obfuscation and asymmetric tactics, refuses to
communicate its military's intentions.
Despite repeated entreaties from American officials, Beijing is unwilling to
talk about many key military issues -- like the scope and intentions of its
rapid force buildup, development of technologies that could cripple
American naval forces in the region, and its military's involvement in cyber
attacks against the United States -- that would lower friction between the

two sides. And sometimes, as in 2010 after U.S. arms sales to Taiwan,
Beijing will break of mil-to-mil contacts altogether -- leading to an
especially troubling silence.
As a result, there is a growing mistrust of China among many thoughtful
people in the U.S. government. Chinese military officers have complained to
me that journals of the American war colleges now feature articles on war
with China, and how the United States can win. A February 2014 article, for
example, in the U.S. Naval Institute'sProceedings magazine, entitled
"Deterring the Dragon," proposes laying ofensive underwater mines along
China's coast to close China's main ports and destroy its sea lines of
communications. The article also suggests sending Special Forces to arm
China's restive minorities in the country's vast western regions.
But China is doing the same thing. In 2013, Gen. Peng Guangqian and Gen.
Yao Youzhi updated their classic text The Science of Strategy, and called for
Beijing to add to the quality and quantity of its nuclear weapons, in order to
close the gap between China and both Russia and the United States. Even
Xi's "new model" of great power relations seems to preclude arms control
negotiations, requiring the United States to yield to the inevitability of
China's rise.
Many people outside the Pentagon may be surprised by just how many
senior American officials are worried about a war with China. These include
no less than the last U.S. two secretaries of defense, and a former secretary
of state. In the concluding chapter of Henry Kissinger's 2011 book, On
China, he warns of a World War I-style massive Chinese-American war.
"Does history repeat itself?" he asks.
Over at least the last decade, on several occasions the United States has
pressed China to be more forthright about its military intentions and
capabilities. In April 2006, after a meeting between President George W.

Bush, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and Chinese President Hu

Jintao, both governments announced the start of talks between the
strategic nuclear force commanders on both sides. This move would have
been extremely important in demonstrating openness about military
intentions. But the PLA dragged its feet, and the talks never started.
In a Sept. 2012 trip to Beijing, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta tried to
persuade Beijing to enter military talks. Like his predecessor Gates,
Panetta called for four specific areas of strategic dialogue: nuclear
weapons, missile defense, outer space, and cyber security. But the Chinese
objected, and again the talks never happened.
Sure, Beijing could follow through on the agreements announced during
Obama's recent trip. But I'm skeptical. One of the biggest advantages China
has over the United States is the asymmetry of military knowledge. Why
would they give that up?
Posted by Thavam