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So What?
.
July 2009 .
Droughts Worsen.
Deserts Spread.
∆ + 2006 temperature
Acceleration
began.
Annual
Averages
In 2007, solar output was the lowest yet recorded (in 28 years), but
Earth’s air temperatures (land surface) were the highest yet recorded.
Sun vs Temp
• Half the sunlight reaching our atmosphere makes it to the surface.
Barriers include blue sky (not black), clouds, haze & the ozone layer.
Clouds
• Clouds reflect some sunlight away, cooling Earth.
They also keep outbound heat in, warming Earth, esp. at night.
• Low clouds cool Earth more than they warm it.
High clouds do the reverse.
• Clouds cover a little more than half of Earth.
On balance, they cool Earth.
• Changes in cloud cover affect global temperature.
So do changes in % high clouds vs low clouds.
• GHGs stay in the air many years, sulfates usually for days.
Sulfates up 52%.
Cooling
40 offsets 61 89 77 116 162 118
1880 GHG 1900 1920 1960 2000
warming. Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice (Intergovernmental Panel
milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice on Climate Change, 2002)
Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG
Land warms more (faster) than oceans.
in winter,
at night,
& especially
toward the poles.
Earth Is Heating Up. Our Greenhouse effect intensifies.
• Air at the land surface is 1.0°C warmer than 100 years ago.
Half that warming happened in the last 25 years.
Another 0.6°C warming (so far) is “in the pipeline.” That is,
Earth will warm another 0.6°C, so it emits enough heat to balance absorption.
• Air at the sea surface is 0.8°C warmer than 100 years ago.
30%
0.9
strongest
0.7
20%
0.5
Webster, 2005
Emanuel, 2005
10%
0.3
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
5-Year Averages
With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic. Shells dissolve easier.
Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen. Fish & mollusks suffer.
Oceans warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004, so plankton absorbed 7% less CO2.
Warming was far strongest in the N Atlantic. CO2 uptake there fell by half.
Reservoirs in the Sky
Mountain glaciers and snowpacks
are dwindling ever faster.
Himalayan glaciers may vanish by 2035,
& with them
the Ganges River in the dry season,
the Indus River too, the Yellow River maybe.
Sea level could rise more than 3 feet, in this century alone.
Thawing permafrost holds 2-4 x MORE carbon than ALL the carbon
humans have EVER emitted. Permafrost area shrank 7% from 1900 to 2000.
Thawing permafrost will likely add 50-100 ppm of CO2 to the air by 2100.
Over the last 13 years, deserts grew from 18 to 27% of China’s area.
By 2085,
averaged across 15 states, the climate change would be like
moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or
moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use).
+4.2°C
+14% rain
2029 2059
Climate Model:
NASA
Goddard
Institute for
Space Studies
(GISS)
50
Drought 5%
Extreme Drought 1%
} Occurrence in Control Run
Occurence (%)
40
30
20
10
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Fig. 2 in Rind et al., 1990 2x
CO2
“Once a century” drought can cover 45% of Earth’s land by 2059.
Over 2000-04, the average frequencies are 18% for “Drought” and 33%Projected
for “Dry”.Droughts by Year .
A weighted average for “as dry as 11% of the time” drought is ~ 27%.
Thanks for the crystal ball.
BUT
Is any of this actually happening? YES..
Remember
forest fires, falling water tables,
disappearing lakes and rivers,
spreading deserts?
(Please also remember
“11% of the time” drought was projected to
increase to 27% of the time over 2000-2004.)
25 precipitation + warming
Compare 2002
20 to 1979.
-5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NCAR], "A Compare 30% actual severe drought area in
Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27%
Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,” projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide.
Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130
Droughts spread, as projected or faster.
Earth’s area in severe drought has tripled since 1979. Evaporation at work
Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.
OK,
So Warming Produces More Dry Areas.
15
Rainy area shrank & grew.
% Very Wet - Palmer
10
Compare 2002
During 1950-1980, the precipitation effect to 1979.
made 11.2% of areas very wet. Cooling combined effect: decrease 2-6%
5 (1957, ‘66, ‘77, ‘79) kicked that up to 11.5%. (1-3 million square miles)
-5
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
from Fig. 9 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, 2004
• Warming above the norm cuts corn, rice & soybean yields by ~10% / °C.
• 1°C warming cut corn & soybean yields 17% in 618 or more US counties.
350
2000
300
Millon Tons
1600
kg / capita
250
1200 200
Million Tons
per capita 150
800
100
400
50
0 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
80% of human food comes from grains. .
• World grain production rose little from 1992 to 2006.
World Grain Production .
• Production per capita fell from 343 kilograms in 1985 to 306 in 2006.
• Any future food production increases will occur away from the tropics.
In the tropics, food production will fall.
• Soil erosion continues. Water to irrigate crops will grow scarcer, as glaciers
and snowpacks vanish, water tables fall, and rainfall becomes more variable.
• Satellites show that, since 1994, hot dry summers outweigh warm, wet springs.
A world that was turning greener is now turning browner.
• Grain stocks (below) are at low levels.
World Grain Stocks
140
120
Days of Consumption
100
80
60
40
20
FAO: Crop Prospects and Food Situation
0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
World Grain Stocks
With less food, feed fewer animals. Eat less meat.
• Plant crops that rebuild soil carbon. Suck CO2 out of the air.
• Use much more drip irrigation.
• Cover reservoirs and irrigation canals to slow evaporation.
• Plant more wheat, less rice. Rice is water-hungry.
• Go North, young man!
Mexicans to the US, Americans to Canada,
Pakistanis to Britain, Algerians to France, Turks to Germany,
Chinese to Siberia, Arabs to Russia.
•
With food stocks at low levels, food prices rose steeply in 2007.
UN, Food & Agriculture Organization: World Food Situation / FAO News
Poor people, in poor nations, could not afford to buy enough food in 2007-8.
Malnutrition rose. So did starvation. The problem has abated, for now.
Food Price Indices, by Type
World Grain Prices Over 2005-7, •.
900
world prices .
850
800
rose 125% .
750 for wheat, .
Rice 100% for corn, .
700
650 27% for rice. + .
600 soybeans 83% .
US $ / Tonne
60
45
30
15
0
-15
-30
-45
-60
-180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180
Fig. 7 in Dai,
Trenberth & Qian,
Journal of -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 +2.0 +4.0 +6.0
Hydrometeorology,
Dec. 2004 More negative is drier. More positive is wetter.
The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. See Spain, Italy, Greece.
.
The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing.
Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet. .The USA has lucked out so far. .
1°C warming is here. 0.6° more is in the pipeline. + Emissions continue.
2°C warming is unavoidable, but it is manageable.
Holding warming to 2°C, not 4°, prevents these losses:
Gross World Product
$45 Trillion, ~ GWP
1/5 of the World’s Food
Amazon Rainforest
1/5 of the world’s oxygen supply
Gulf Stream +
West Antarctic Icecap
much of Florida, Long Island, Norfolk area, Cape Cod
1/2 of All Species
4°C warming threatens civilization itself. 5°C is worse.
Details to follow: first 2, next 3, then 4, finally 5°C. 2° vs 4° Warming
2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e .
60
CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes
50 warming from CO2 & other GHGs,
less the cooling effect of sulfates.
40
-32% Total
30 Warming
20 +3°C
-67%
-75%
10 +2°C
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
435 ppm CO2e = 385 CO2 + 310 other GHGs - 260 sulfate cooling.
CO2 Stabilization Paths
Paul Volcker, former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, spoke to the
American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt on February 5, 2007.
China passed the US in 2007. US emissions fell 3% 2005-08, China’s grew slower.
In the US, fossil fuel CO2 comes 44% from oil, 36% from coal, 20% from natural gas.
40% comes from electricity, 33% from transportation, 17% from industry.
1900-2002 World Resources Institute Cumulative (1900-2006) •
1980-2006 US Department of Energy - EIA
1950-1980 Oak Ridge National Lab
CO2 Emissions
Russia Mid-East
1.1 Trillion Tons CO2 People .
8.3% & C Asia Rich Countries 66% 16% .
China 5.5%
8.9%
Russia, Mid-East+ 13% 8% .
Japan
4.3% Developing Countries 21% 76% .
. Latin America
3.7% Africa Poor .
2.5% nations .
misc Asia
3.4% believe .
rich .
India countries .
Other 2.5%
8.5% created .
the .
problem. .
Canada
2.2%
Oceania
1.3%
. Europe
28.4%
United States
Warming melts away Himalayan glaciers. .
29.0%
When they vanish, perhaps by 2035,
the Ganges & maybe the Yellow River will dry up part of the year. .
That’s bad for crops in India and China.
At Bali in December 2007, a Chinese delegation told US Senator John Kerry
China was ready to cut its own GHG emissions - IF
the United States first set mandatory reductions of its own.
US CO2 Reduction Paths: Bills in Congress •
11
H), +5°C
10 l l / P etri (
Uda p
pr i ce ca
with
9
8 Bingaman (S
Billion Tons / Year
), no price ca
CO2e Emissions
~ Bush prop p
osal, April 20 +4°C
08
7
6
McCain / Lieberman (S)
5 +3°C
early 2007: New York Times, Olver / Gilchrest (H)
World Resources Institute; +2.8°C
4 Warn
e r / Li
November 2007, NRDC; eber
man
June 2008, House Global Warming Committee Kerr (S)
3 April 2009 House Commerce Committee
y/S
now +2.4°C
e (S
)
2 +2.2°C
80% Reduction
+2°C
1
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Industry
17%
Coal for
Electricity .
33%
Home
Heat .
6%. Commercial 2007: USDOE - EIA
(US Department of Energy -
Buildings 3%
Energy Information Administration)
20.3% 21.2%
1.76%
1.3% 2.7%
.42%
Geothermal
.36%
.38%
Coal .01%
48.5%
CO2 -9.4% Wind was up from .63% in 2006.
46.8%
-11.1% since 2007 Coal was down 1.3%USsince 2004.
MWh by Source
Solutions - Electricity
• Price it right retail, for everyone: low at night, high by day, highest on hot afternoons.
• Coal: Use less. Scrub out the CO2 with oxyfuel or pre-/post-combustion process.
Store the liquid CO2 far underground. There’s room for over 100 years of output.
• Natural Gas & Oil follow loads up & down all day, but are getting expensive. To
follow loads: store energy in car batteries, water uphill, compressed air, flywheels, hydrogen.
• Wind - Resource easily exceeds total use: US Plains, NC-MA coast, Great Lakes.
Growing 30+%/year, it’s now cheaper than coal in many places. 3% of US GW
Wind turbines off US East Coast could replace most US coal plants.
In last 3-4 years, US coal capacity fell 0.3 GW, while wind capacity rose 21 GW.
• Solar - Resource dwarfs total use. Output peaks near when cooling needs peak.
Growing 30+%/yr. PV costs 20¢/kWh, thermal (with flat mirrors) 10¢. Most is used overseas.
Don’t drive much over 55 mph. Combine errands, idle 10 seconds tops.