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INDUSTRY UPDATE
Banking stocks have underperformed VN-Index, with a oneyear return of only 5.9%, compared to that of the VN-Index of
33.7%. Currently, the P/B and P/E of banking sector is 1.13x and
14.1, compared to 2.05x and 15.8x of the VN-Index, respectively.
40
VNINDEX
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
08/14
Further rate cuts: In 1H2014, market interest rates, including Gbond yields, interbank, bank deposits and lending rates have
fallen drastically resulting from low inflation, ample liquidity in
the banking system. Further rate cuts, especially in bank lending
are expected in the 2H2014.
4.67
0
-5
09/13
11/13
01/14
03/14
04/14
06/14
NIM (%)
6.00
2013
1H2014
5.00
4.00
4.00
2.92
3.00
2.00
1.84
2.24
3.13
3.24
2.45
1.00
-SHB
EIB
VCB
BID
ACB
CTG
MBB
STB
NPL (%)
6.00
2013
5.36
1H2014
5.00
4.00
3.60
2.94
3.00
2.29
2.00
3.09
3.10
2.53
1.00
-BID
www.VPBS.com.vn
CTG
EIB
VCB
MBB
1.51
STB
ACB
SHB
Page | 1
CONTENTS
PERFORMANCE OF LISTED BANKS IN 1H2014
Financial performance
Sluggish credit growth in the first five months and started to pick up from June
10
VAMCs rate of NPL purchases lags far behind this years target
12
13
15
16
CONTACT INFORMATION
17
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 2
The banking sector has underperformed the VN-Index over the past 12 months. The
one year return of the banking sector was 5.9%, which is less than one fifth of the VNIndex return (33.7%). Given the unresolved non-performing loans problem in the
banking system, coupled with slow recovery of the economy and weak ability to
absorb capital that led to sluggish credit growth, the prospects of banking system as
a whole are still latent many obstacles. As of September 11, 2014, the banking sector
is trading at a P/E of 14.1 times and P/B of 1.15 times, lower than the VN-Index P/E of
15.8 times and P/B of 2.05 times.
Among eight listed banks, SHB and VCB tend to outperform their peer group with a
one-year return of 36.2% for SHB and 27.3% for VCB. The worst performers are BID
and EIB with one-year returns of -25% and -11.3%, respectively.
Price performance of listed banks
SHB
100%
VCB
80%
STB
60%
MBB
40%
ACB
20%
EIB
0%
CTG
-20%
BID
-40%
VN Index
Source: Bloomberg
Currently, VCB and STB are the two tickers trading at premium based on their P/B
indicators. While VCB is considered Vietnams best managed bank with superior
assets quality, STB is currently the most profitable one bank.
Mkt Cap
(VND bn)
VN-Index
Banking Sector
VCB
CTG
BID
STB
MBB
ACB
EIB
SHB
74,087
53,989
39,638
22,393
15,768
14,007
15,368
8,157
Price as of Sep
15, 2014
(VND)
27,800
14,500
14,100
19,600
13,600
15,200
12,500
9,200
P/E (x)
P/B (x)
15.8
14.1
15.6
8.5
8.9
9.9
6.6
18.7
22.0
23.0
2.05
1.15
1.67
1.01
1.19
1.42
0.94
1.16
1.03
0.76
*ACB & SHB recovered from negative and STB from poor earnings in 2012
www.VPBS.com.vn
12M EPS
as of Jun
30, 2014
1,785
1,562
1,593
2,073
2,063
737
481
965
EPS - 1Yr
Growth
14.9
-37.7
N.A.
135.5*
-11.5
745.5*
-54.6
166.6*
ROE (%)
13.4
11.3
10.2
11.2
12.3
14.9
17.7
9.2
7.0
7.8
Source: Bloomberg
Page | 3
Financial performance
Over-performers: VCB, STB,
MBB.
Underperformers: BID, CTG,
ACB, EIB, SHB.
The mixed results of listed banks through 1H2014 are detailed below. The key factors
that drive a commercial banks performance include: capacity for growth, profitability
and balance sheet quality. Taking these important drivers into consideration, we have
divided the eight listed banks into two groups: (1) the three over-performers being
VCB, STB, and MBB; and (2) the five underperformers being BID, CTG, ACB, EIB, and
SHB. The performance of these banks, although tracking along with the banking
industrys downward trend, still outperformed the industry average overall. We will
have a closer look at the financial performance of these banks in the industry
highlights session below.
Indicator
Total assets
Ytd %
Customer loans
Ytd %
Debt securities
Ytd %
Customer deposits
Ytd %
Total Operating Income
Yoy %
Net Interest Income/Total
Operating Income
yoy %
Net Non-interest Income
/Total Operating Income
yoy %
PPOP
Yoy %
PBT
% of 2014s plan
LDR (%)
NPL 2013 (%)
NPL 1H2014 (%)
LLC (%)
NIM 2013 (%)
NIM 1H2014 (%)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
VCB
STB
MBB
BID
CTG
ACB
SHB
EIB
504,432
7.6
292,545
6.6
90,686
42.3
378,559
13.9
8,314
15.6
178,939
10.9
121,193
9.6
27,866
29.0
148,276
12.6
4,050
6.1
188,570
4.5
94,551
7.8
59,177
30.1
157,675
15.9
4,101
5.5
579,022
5.6
397,428
1.6
86,993
26.6
386,056
5.9
10,020
16.8
597,636
3.7
377,992
0.5
112,768
35.7
377,690
3.6
9,849
(3.5)
177,454
6.5
110,752
3.3
41,522
22.2
147,173
6.6
3,113
2.0
149,611
4.2
91,479
19.6
12,760
(31.5)
109,471
20.6
1,353
3.4
132,064
(22.2)
80,275
(3.7)
14,690
7.0
77,092
(3.0)
1,777
(3.1)
67.0
85.3
81.3
77.5
88.5
77.8
82.0
86.1
8.3
0.3
6.8
16.0
(6.4)
1.2
3.0
(1.6)
33.0
14.7
18.7
23.5
11.5
22.2
18.0
13.9
34.0
5,254
14.8
2,846
51.7
78.5
2.73
3.09
96.9
2.65
2.45
0.9
10.2
59.8
1,929
9.2
1,624
53.4
84.2
1.46
1.51
80.9
5.03
4.67
1.6
14.9
0.4
2,642
1.7
1,702
55.0
62.0
2.45
3.10
62.2
3.80
4.00
1.5
17.7
19.7
5,383
3.3
2,505
41.8
109.3
2.37
2.29
85.2
2.92
2.92
0.7
12.3
27.3
5,590
(6.8)
3,873
53.2
108.6
1.00
2.53
54.7
3.60
3.24
1.0
11.2
5.2
1,309
8.6
731
61.5
75.3
3.03
3.60
48.1
2.95
3.13
0.7
9.2
5.7
648
67.0
505
39.8
88.7
4.06
5.36
17.1
1.87
1.84
0.6
7.8
(11.4)
859
(0.1)
664
36.9
104.1
1.98
2.94
33.8
1.83
2.24
0.6
7.0
Average
2.6
5.7
20.2
9.5
5.4
80.6
3.5
15.4
17.6
12.2
49.2
88.8
2.4
3.1
59.9
3.1
3.1
1.0
11.3
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 4
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
m-o-m growth
Ytd growth
12.52%
4.72%
3.72%
Source: SBV
Credit
growth
started
picking up from June.
We expect credit growth to
only achieve 10% this year.
What is also worthy of notice was the quick jump in June as the SBV reported credit
growth of the banking system of 3.72%, meaning that in June alone, VND69,465
billion (USD3.27 billion) of loans was approved. By the end of August, credit growth
of the whole banking system reached 4.5%. Although credit growth is expected to
accelerate in the second half of the 2014, we think that the target credit growth of 12
to 14% of the banking system may be difficult to achieve and a 10% credit growth is
more likely.
Among listed banks, SHB, VCB, STB and MBB grew at an impressive rate of 19.6%,
6.6%, 9.6% and 7.8%, respectively. We noticed some common characteristics among
these banks, which were: (1) providing credit for high profile SOEs, (2) strong focus
on developing the retail segment, (3) increasing credit provided for prioritized
sectors; and (4) increasing loans to SMEs. Each of these banks has focused on
different segments of the market where they have competitive advantages.
Credit growth
SHB
STB
MBB
VCB
ACB
BID
CTG
EIB
2013
34.37%
14.77%
17.81%
13.75%
4.26%
15.04%
12.88%
11.25%
1H2013
2.70%
13.45%
7.00%
-1.47%
7.45%
7.31%
0.38%
7.37%
1H2014
19.57%
9.61%
7.76%
6.65%
3.32%
1.63%
0.45%
-3.69%
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 5
CTG: CTG recorded sluggish credit growth of 0.45% in 1H2014. Hence, CTGs credit
growth target for 2014 of 13% seems a bit overly ambitious. However, in 1H2013,
CTG has also recorded a low credit growth of 0.38% and jumped to 12.88% by end of
year. In 1H2014, loans to SOEs slightly grew by 3.15%, while loans to SMEs stayed
flat and individual loans actually declined by -5.6%. The sluggish credit growth might
also be due to the fact that CTGs NPL ratio has skyrocketed from 1% as of FY2013 to
2.53% in 1H2014, hence, CTGs priority is to focus on resolving existing NPLs.
EIB: Among listed banks, EIB was the only bank that experienced negative credit
growth given an actual decline of loans to individuals, the sector that EIB traditionally
enjoyed a competitive advantage; while loans to SOEs and SMEs barely grew.
MBB: Since the beginning of the year, MBB has launched two credit packages worth
a total of VND5,000 billion (USD235.34 million), targeting individuals, which included
VND2,000 billion (USD94.14 million) launched in February and VND3,000 billion
(USD141.20 million) launched in May. It was likely that the pick-up in MBBs credit
growth was the result of the implementation of the two packages mentioned above.
On top of that, MBBs SOE loans increased by 30.43%, individual loans grew by
26.14%, while SME loans experienced a 1.17% drop, coupled with strategic
partnership with Viettel, MBB can ensure a decent growth of credit.
SHB: SHB, surprisingly, had the highest credit growth of 19.6% in 1H2014. Quite
different from its peers, SHB had a high portion of SME loans and this group actually
brought about most of SHBs credit growth in 1H2014, which grew 47.8%.
STB: STBs traditional strength has been in the retail segment. However, it has also
increased its lending to prioritized sectors such as agriculture. After five years of
implementing the project Rural Finance III, Sacombank has been granted a credit
line of up to VND650 billion (USD30.59 million) from initial VND100 billion (USD4.71
million). Historically the bank has a track record of dispersing 100% of its credit line.
VCB: For VCB in particular, thanks to strategic partnerships with many large SOEs,
VCB was able to extend more loans to this group, including EVN, EVN NPT,
Vinacomin, Vinachem and Viettel. At the same time, VCB also paid special attention
to providing loans to a number of major State projects (such as Lai Chau, Son La,
Vinh Tan hydropower plants) and the prioritized sectors and groups. VCB currently
has about 50% of its loan book in these sectors.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 6
In spite of lower yields, we still observed an obvious preference for g-bonds among
commercial banks, especially the big ones. Most listed banks investment in g- bonds
increased much faster than their customer loans in the 1H2014. Given that the ability
to absorb capital of local businesses remained weak and the banking systems
liquidity was abundant, the fact that g-bonds continued to be an attractive investment
channel is reasonable.
Customer credit growth (%)
G-bonds investment growth (%)
STB
9.6
34.4
MBB
7.8
20.9
VCB
6.6
60.4
BID
1.6
25.8
CTG
0.45
56.6
ACB
3.3
73.0
SHB
19.6
(34.5)
EIB
(3.7)
7.0*
During the first half of 2014, the government successfully mobilized VND151,748
billion (USD7.11 billion) of bond and bill issuance, which counted for 65.4% of the
recently revised issuance plan. Therefore, we believe that for the 2H2014, banks
investment in government bonds, although still increase, but the pace will slow down
considerably compared to the 1H2014.
Banks deposit and lending interest rates: Because domestic sector GDP growth
has been weak, government has tried to help corporate profitability by lowering the
cap on deposit rates so that banks would lower loan rates too. Weak consumer
spending has allowed them to lower interest rates without fear of inflation returning.
Particularly deposit rate cap has been reduced from 7% to 6% for one month to less
than six month tenors, lending rate cap from 9% to 8% for prioritized sectors, and 7%
for agriculture sector in particular. According to the National Financial Supervision
Commission (NFSC), in July 2014, average deposit interest rates stood at 5.53% per
annum, down 0.6 percentage points whereas the average lending interest rates
reached 10.08% per annum, down 0.25 percentage points compared to year end
2013, which was less than that in the deposit rates.
At the end of August, banks announced rate cuts in VND deposits, which ranged from
0.1 to 0.5 percentage points. Currently, SOCBs offer the lowest deposit interest rates,
particularly the interest rate of one-month tenor of BIDV is 4.5%, VCB and Agribank is
4.8%, and CTG is 5%. Other smaller JSCBs are still offering closed to the ceiling rates
of 6%.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 7
Outlook: As deposit rates are already closed to the expected inflation rate of 5.5 to
6.0%, we think that further cuts in deposit rate are unlikely. However, to stimulate
credit growth in the last quarter of 2014, banks will likely have to lower their lending
rates, and a lower NIM is expected as a result.
The overall profitability of the banking system continued to slip downward given
sluggish credit growth, rate cuts and higher provision expenses.
NIM ratio: Listed banks recorded mixed results. While ACB, EIB, BID and MBB had
their NIM improved slightly due mostly to better assets structure, where portions of
lower earning assets were reduced; in contrast CTG, VCB, STB, and SHB had their
NIM decline. STB and MBB, with competitive advantages in retail lending, emerged
as the most profitable ones with highest NIM, as well as highest ROA and ROE.
NIM (%)
6.00
2013
5.00
4.67
4.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1H2014
1.84
2.24
2.45
2.92
3.13
3.24
1.00
-SHB
EIB
VCB
BID
ACB
CTG
MBB
STB
Source: Banks FS
Operating Profits: Five out of eight listed banks (CTG, VCB, STB, MBB, and ACB)
have achieved their targets for 1H2014 profit before tax.
1H2013
Overall
profitability
of
banking sector declined due
to lower NIM, slow credit
growth, and high provision
expenses.
ACB
BID
CTG
EIB
MBB
SHB
STB
VCB
946
2,579
4,137
755
1,799
400
1,518
2,603
1,189
6,000
7,280
1,800
3,100
1,270
3,000
5,500
% of 2014s plan
61.5
41.8
53.2
36.9
55.0
39.8
53.4
51.7
However, most banks have kept their 2014 targets at a similar level to or even lower
than the actual 2013 results. In our view, for the remainder of 2014, the banking
sectors performance can hardly improve given that profitability will be eroded from
rising NPLs and additional provision expenses for the VND39,000 billion (USD1.84
billion) of NPLs sold to VAMC in 2013.
Of the listed banks, only BID and EIB are expected to record any significant growth in
profits before tax for 2014 and EIBs results will still be well below 2012 levels.
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 8
VCB
MBB
4,000
5,500
5,743
1,189
1,036
1,043
1,270
1,000
1,825
1,800
828
2,851
3,000
2,961
3,100
3,022
1,368
1,000
SHB
3,090
2,000
EIB
ACB
3,390
3,000
STB
5,764
5,290
5,000
6,000
6,000
BID
7,280
7,000
7,751
8,000
8,168
CTG
--
*2012 & 2013 are actual results, 2014s figures are banks target
Source: Banks FS
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 9
60%
Total credit
Credit in VND
50%
120%
40%
100%
30%
80%
20%
60%
48.7%
71.0%
75.2%
103.4%
40%
10%
20%
0%
-10%
Credit in VND
140%
2008
2009
2010
-20%
2011
2012
2013
1H 2014
51.3%
29.0%
24.8%
2010
2011
0%
-20%
119.8%
-3.4%
2012
-40%
2013
1H2014
-19.8%
Source: SBV
www.VPBS.com.vn
The NPL ratios in the banking system have edged upwards from 3.61% in December,
2013 to 4.17% by an absolute amount of VND132,500 billion (USD6.24 billion) of
NPLs. The rising NPL ratios indicated that companies were still confronting many
hurdles. On top of that, the effectiveness of Circular 09/2014 since June 1, 2014 has
forced banks to reclassify part of their group 1 and 2 loans to lower groups and
reveal more NPLs in 1H2014, especially in June. In addition, technically speaking, the
low credit growth in 1H2014 did not help to dilute NPL ratios. Rising NPL ratios may
also be due to window dressing by banks. Historically, some banks artificially reduce
their year-end NPL ratios by restructuring their NPLs in order to make up attractive
annual results. It was common to see the bounce back of NPL in the first quarter of
the following year.
Page | 10
6.00
2013
5.36
1H2014
120%
10,000
5.00
8,000
3.60
4.00
2.94
3.00
2.29
2.00
12,000
3.09
6,000
4,000
1.51
1.00
2,000
--
-STB
BID
CTG
EIB
VCB
85.2%
3.10
2.53
MBB
ACB
SHB
100%
96.9%
54.7%
80.9%
80%
62.2%
60%
48.1%
33.8%
40%
27.1%
20%
0%
EIB SHB
LLC
Sources: SBV, VPBS
Further, according to the SBVs inspectors, if banks were not allowed to keep their
restructured loans in the same group (following Decision 780), the real bad debt
figure would have increased by VND185,000 billion (USD8.71 billion), mounted to a
total of VND307,000 billion (USD14.45 billion) or a NPL ratio of 9.71%. As banks are
required to fully comply with Circular 02 and 09 in 2015, NPLs are obviously expected
to increase further in the near future.
Among listed banks, VCB, ACB, MBB and SHB currently have NPL ratio exceeding the
threshold of 3%. Vietinbank, which has been able to keep its NPL ratio below the
threshold of 3.00%, is no longer the bank with the lowest reported NPL ratio.
Vietinbanks 1H2014 NPL ratio skyrocketed to 2.53%, compared to the absurdly low
figure of 1.00% as of FY2013. Total NPL increased substantially, with Group 3 loans
increasing abruptly six-fold and Group 4 loans augmented threefold. In addition, as
BID, VCB and MBB are the only three banks who have been applying Article 7 of
Decision 493 regarding loans classification (using the qualitative approach, which is
considered stricter compared to the quantitative approach) and the remaining banks
applied quantitative approach, it is hard to compare NPL ratios across the board.
In order to reduce the NPL levels, banks have implemented many proactive
approaches. According to SBVs statistics, in 1H2014 a total of VND33,650 billion
(USD1.58 billion) of bad debts has been dealt with by debt collection from debtors,
sale of collaterals and the use of provisions for credit loss. By the end of August 2014,
banks have sold VND19,630 billion (USD923.94 million) of NPLs to VAMC. Also,
banks also put aside additional reserves for credit losses given NPLs increased and
part of the provisions were used to write-off NPLs. By the end of June 2014, the
remaining provisions for credit losses balance in the banking system stood at
VND77,300 billion (USD3.64 billion), increased by 10.9% compared to FY2013. If this
whole amount is used to solve bad debts then the NPL ratio of the industry will slide
down to 2.2%.
For the eight listed banks, in 1H2014, nearly VND3,190 billion (USD150.15 million) of
provisions have been used to write-off NPLs, equal to only 25% of the figure in 2013.
During this period these banks have set aside an additional of VND10,700
billion(USD503.62 million) for provisions, bringing their provisions balance to over
VND29,800 billion (USD1.40 billion), up about 25% from a year earlier. Last year, they
have set aside about VND18,300 billion (USD861.34 million) for provisions and used
www.VPBS.com.vn
Page | 11
VND17,108 billion (USD805.23 million). Even though additional provisions have been
set aside, the LLC ratio was still at a low level, even on a declining trend vis--vis
1Q2014. VCBs LLC ratio was maintained at a high and stable level, stood at 96.9% as
of June 30, 2014. VCBs LLC has consistently been the highest among listed banks.
BID also maintain its manner with LLC ratio increased to 85.2% from 81.6% in
1Q2014. The rest, even MBB, known as the bank with good credit control, has failed
to maintain its high LLC ratio, with its figure went down to 62.2% from previously
high 84.6% in 1Q2014 and 82.5% as of FY2013.
Since its establishment in July 2013, VAMC has been playing an active role in solving
bad debt by buying NPLs, helping banks to clean up part of their balance sheets, and
extending the time it takes to set provisions for the amount of loans sold. In addition,
VAMC also adjusted downward the lending interest rates for the overdue borrowers,
pressed down from over 20% to around 10%, reducing their pressure in paying
interest. In April 2014, VAMC announced an adjusted interest rate of bad debts
acquired at 10.7% per year for loans in VND; 5.2% to 5.7% for loans in USD and EUR,
respectively. Plus, those who were previously denied loans due to their existing
overdue debt are now being granted another chance to receive credit for viable
projects.
However, the pace of VAMC buying bad debts has been slowed in 2014. In 1H2014,
VAMC has bought VND11,414 billion (USD537.23 million) worth of bad debts, which
is far from this years target of purchasing between VND70,000 billion (USD3.29
billion) and VND100,000 billion (USD4.71 billion) worth of NPLs, and also much lower
compared to the VND39,307 billion (USD 1.85 billion) of NPLs that VAMC bought in
the last three months of 2013.
In order for VAMC to resolve the bad debts issue, it needs to be able to buy and sell
bad debts at the same time. While the legal framework has been set up to support
VAMC to buy NPLs, it has not provided adequate tools for VAMC to effectively sell
NPLs. So far, VAMC has sold only VND996 billion (USD46.88 million) worth of bad
debts. The company is very positive about its plan of selling and collecting VND2,500
billion (USD117.67 million) worth of bad debts this year. This seems, however, in our
view, to be relatively inconsequential when weighed against the massive amount of
total outstanding NPLs that are still in the system. Such low liquidation rates create a
significant risk that banks will eventually need to write down the bonds they received
for their VAMC loan sales. The obstacles that restrict VAMC from selling NPLs
include:
(1) Lack of legal framework for liquidating collateral: Currently, the law has
not allowed foreign organizations or individuals to hold mortgages in Vietnam. Even
organizations and individuals in the country are not allowed to hold a mortgage if
they are not credit institutions (According to Article 114, Housing law prescribed real
estate collateral credit institutions"). Therefore, foreign investors will not buy back
bad debt from bank, if they cannot claim entitlement of the collaterals.
Recently, an amendment bill of the law on housing has been discussed. Particularly,
in Articles 155, 157 and 158 of the Housing amendment bill, overseas Vietnamese
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Foreign Banks
Purchased ownership
Executed Year
ACB
8.8%
July 2005
TCB
HSBC
10.0%
December 2005
VPBank
OCBC Singapore
10.0%
September 2006
TCB
HSBC
10.0%
January 2007
Ocean Bank
BNP Paribas
15.0%
January 2007
Eximbank
15.0%
July 2007
Habubank
Deutsche bank
10.0%
October 2007
Anbinhbank
Maybank
15.0%
March 2008
ACB
6.2%
July 2008
Southern Bank
20.0%
July 2008
VPBank
OCBC Singapore
5.0%
August 2008
Seabank
15.0%
August 2008
VIB
15.0%
September 2010
CTG
10.0%
January 2011
VCB
Mizuho Bank
15.0%
September 2011
CTG
19.7%
December 2012
Source: VPBS collected
In 2012 and 2013, as a part of the Financial System Reform Plan 2011-2015, the SBV
has been actively supporting the merger and acquisitions of banks. M&A activities
happened mainly between local banks, particularly the four following deals were
executed.
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Merger Banks
Post-merged Name
Deal Size
Executed Year
SCB
USD7.07 bn
January 2012
SHB
USD5.66 bn
August 2012
PVcom Bank
USD4.98 bn
May 2013
HD Bank
USD4.01 bn
Nov 2013
Since the beginning of this year, the market saw more proposal of voluntary mergers
and acquisitions: Sacombank and Southern Bank, Vietinbank and PG Bank, Mekong
Bank and Maritime Bank as banks were more aware that restructuring was necessary
to improve their competitiveness. In addition to the specific cases mentioned above,
a number of other banks such as VCB, MBB, Viet Capital Bank, SeaBank and Viet A
Bank also touch upon the possibility of merging with another bank this yearTo date,
however, none of these proposals have been realized. Also, despite the uplifting limit
on foreign ownership, we have not seen any major investment of foreign institutions
so far this year. Nonetheless, we notice two prominent M&A trends this year:
The wave of high net worths divestment from banks
According to the Department of Corporate Finance (MOF), SOEs have launched more
than VND22,000 billion (USD1.04 billion) to invest in non-core business segments
(primarily securities, insurance, real estate companies, investment funds and banks).
To comply with Resolution 15/2014/NQ-CP, in 2014, many industries will strive to
finalize plans of divesting 50% of capital in non-core business investments, among
which, divesting 100% capital from banking, insurance and securities sectors.
Particularly, in August 2014, Vinacomin has divested completely from SHB (VND300
billion) and SHS (VND70 billion). It is also expected that by 2015, Vietnam Oil and Gas
Group (PVN) will also divest completely from Ocean Bank (PVN currently holds about
20% of Ocean Banks chartered capital). A number of other corporations are still
struggling with this problem. However, the year of 2014 will likely witness the
simultaneous divestment of big players: Textile Corporation (Vinatex) divestment
from NCB; Bao Viet Group divestment from Bao Viet JSCB, Vietnam Posts and
Telecommunications (VNPT) divestment from Maritime Bank, and Petrolimex
divestment from PG Bank.
The hunt for finance companies
Banks have embarked on a path of hunting to acquire finance companies and this
trend is becoming increasingly notable in 2014:
In April 2014, SHB has asked for shareholders permission to acquire ViettelVinaconex Finance JSC, a finance company.
In May 2014, Maritime Bank has become the largest shareholder of Vietnam
Textile and Garment Finance JSC with 64.1% shareholdings.
In July 2014, VPBank acquired Vinacomin Finance Company.
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Government decree No. 39/2014/ND-CP dated May 07, 2014 that allows finance
companies to provide banking services including the issuance of credit card,
capital mobilization and financial leasing. As a result, banks can leverage this
channel to provide retail products and payments services.
Thanks to simple credit policy, without collateral requirement, finance companies
have attracted a large base of customers. In addition, their lending rates are often
absurdly high, mostly mortgage lending for consuming, averaging 35% pa, with
interest in special cases up to 60% pa, promising to boost banks net profit.
SOEs are required to divest from non-core businesses within 2014 and 2015,
which is good timing for banks to take over their shareholdings in finance
companies (MBB has taken over 64.1% shareholdings of Vietnam Textile and
Garment Finance JSC from Vinatex)
However, bad debts remained a problem for banks that are taking over finance
companies. Due to the high earning rates, the attendant risks are also high.
According to the HCM City branch of SBV, by the end of 2013, finance companies and
financial leasing firms reported the highest NPL ratios in the financial sector, 21.96 %
and 37.53 %, respectively.
Despite the SBVs intention to apply Basel II on all banks by 2015, given the rising
NPLs and declining profitability in recent years, it seems that not all banks are ready
to sallow the bitter medicine of Basel II and the 2015 deadline is likely to be missed.
The SBV recently selected ten commercial banks for piloting the Basel II
implementation roadmap from 2015 to 2018. After this phase, Basel II will be applied
to the remaining commercial banks in the country.
With concern of the rising NPL and the transparency of NPL classification we
compare the current NPL, LLC and CAR ratios of the ten pilot banks and then stress
test their CAR ratio to see how low the CAR may decline. We take the sum of a banks
equity capital and its long-term valuable papers as a proxy for total tier 1 and tier 2
capitals, then we calculated the possible losses of capital from which we generated
an estimation of CAR under each of the three scenarios.
1. Best case scenario: NPLs are already properly classified
2. Base case scenario: 50% of Group 2 loans are actually NPLs
3. Worst case scenario: 100% of Group 2 loans are actually NPLs
Unit: %
NPL/Total loans
Group 2-5/Total loans
LLC
Current CAR
Best case scenario CAR
Base case scenario CAR
Worst case scenario CAR
CTG
2.53
3.31
54.7
13.17
12.16
11.80
11.44
BID
2.29
7.98
85.2
10.23
9.92
7.39
4.87
VCB
3.09
10.71
96.9
13.13
13.05
9.90
6.75
MBB
3.10
6.84
62.2
11.00
10.34
9.28
8.23
STB
1.51
1.88
80.9
10.22
10.02
9.89
9.75
ACB
3.60
6.91
48.1
14.70
12.68
10.94
9.20
TCB
4.12
8.47
36.8
14.03
12.50
11.22
9.94
VP
2.81
7.51
41.0
12.50
11.44
9.93
8.42
VIB
2.82
4.58
93.1
18.00
17.85
15.95
14.06
MSB
2.71
3.98
98.7
10.56
10.55
8.79
7.02
According to our projections, under the worst scenario, half of the ten pilot banks will
need additional capital to bring their CAR to the minimum level of 9%. Among them,
BID, VCB and MBB are the only three banks who have already been applying the
qualitative approach of loan classification.
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Our simple approach described above, however, only takes credit risk into
consideration and, therefore the resulted CAR will still likely be lower than what they
should be when operational risk and market risks are calculated in the equation.
Content
Share holdings by a foreign credit institution and its related
parties increased from 10% to 15%. Shareholdings by a
foreign strategic credit institution and its related parties
increased from 15% to 20%. There will be no limit of foreign
ownership in Vietnamese commercial banks in special cases.
Impact
The foreign capital is hoped to
improve
banks
financial
position, and it is hoped that
increased
involvement
by
foreign banks will lead to
transfers of technology and
experience that will improve the
operations of Vietnamese banks.
In
the
short-term,
easing
pressures on NPL reporting will
help banks extend more credit,
make fewer provisions, and thus
improve profits. On the other
hand, the revisions in Circular
09 will inevitably prolong the
banking sector reform, which is
very crucial for the long-term
prospects of the banking sector.
Circular
09/2014/TTNHNN (dated
March 18,
2014)
Resolution
No.15/2014/NQCP
Proposal of an
amendment of
Decree
53/2013/ND-CP
Strengthening of transparency
and publicity in the sale and
solving of bad debts and
collaterals.
Proposal of a
replacement of
Circular
13/2010 /TTNHNN
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CONTACT INFORMATION
For further information regarding this report, please contact the following members of the VPBS
research department:
Barry David Weisblatt
Head of Research
barryw@vpbs.com.vn
Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh
Director Macro and Financials
linhntt@vpbs.com.vn
For any questions regarding your account, please contact the following:
Marc Djandji, CFA
Head of Institutional Sales and Brokerage
marcdjandji@vpbs.com.vn
+848 3823 8608 Ext: 158
Ly Dac Dung
Head of Retail Sales & Brokerage
dungld@vpbs.com.vn
+ 844 3974 3655 Ext: 335
Vo Van Phuong
Vice President of Retail Sales &
Brokerage
phuongvv@vpbs.com.vn
+848 6296 4210 Ext: 130
Domalux
Vice President of Retail Sales &
Brokerage
domalux@vpbs.com.vn
+848 6296 4210 Ext: 128
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