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1. Introduction:
Migration is often considered an essential component of economic
development and social change. It is the hallmark of the rapid urbanization
process in Bangladesh. Broadly migration is a relocation of residence of various
duration and various natures.
Rural-urban migration has become both a major policy concern and a subject
of public debate in Bangladesh. Sometimes migration is regarded as a trend
factor of the expansion of economic growth and modernization. The study is
designed on rural-urban migration of Bangladesh and the importance of the
level of education on it. Actually there are many factors regarding the internal
migration in Bangladesh: respectively income, occupation, initial wealth
situation, landlessness, lack of employment opportunities, age , marital status,
influence of family members, family size, availability of jobs in the migrated
area etc. As here we are going to examine the important determinants of ruralurban migration and the magnitude of those determinants. In this perspective,
our study is relevant as level of education is one of the vital factors to induce
the people to migrate internally.
Different level of education in Bangladesh has a vast impact on migration
decision. As the probability of obtaining job in the developed area or outside of
the countryside is high, so people tend to migrate to the developed area. With
higher level of education holders in the countryside area, the perfect jobs are
not available for them. And these people expect a good job but because of
unavailability of jobs they tend to migrate.
Again the persons with low or no level of education has a tendency to migrate
to the developed area because they think that job opportunity is high and they
expect a better standard of living which can be met up by a higher wage or
income as well.
There exists a contradiction regarding the impact of individuals status of
education on migration decision. Several studies have cited a positive
relationship and the others have shown insignificant association. The study is
conducted based on this controversy and tries to identify the actual association
between them. We will use secondary data and logistic regression model to
analyze the data.
2. Background and significance:
The current study of internal migration in Bangladesh focusing on the
questions: does likelihood of migration decision vary for different level of
education? What are the other determinants of migration and how they
influence on migration decision?
Internal migration has generally been thought of as an urbanization
phenomenon, and the urbanization rate in Bangladesh has been quoted at
3.03% over the period from 1975 to 2009, and this is one of the highest
in the world (UNDESA-2009). It is worth noting that while there many papers
are qualitative in nature, and part of our purpose is to bring new insights
through the application of very basic analytical techniques using aggregate
data.
A time series of life time internal migrants shows that migrants was 0.95
million which accounted for 2.31 percent of total population in 1951. This rose
to 6.56 million of migrants in 1982 which accounted for 7.39 percent of
population. The life time migrants found in 1991 population census is 10.44%.
However the estimated life time migration rate for the period 1982-1991 was
10.44 and for the period 1991-2004 was 9.34 percent.
Direction
Causes
of
migration
Rural to Urban Total
Marriage
Education
Looking for Job
Getting Job
Others
Both sex
Male
Female
100.00
11.55
8.65
17.61
5.34
56.86
100.00
2.38
9.83
26.73
7.35
53.71
100.00
18.77
7.71
10.43
3.75
59.33
In 1984 in-migration rate in rural area was 5.8 per thousand and in 2010 it was
22.2 per thousand populations. In urban areas in the year 1984 in-migration
was 14.5 per thousand and in 2010 the rate was 73.4 per thousand populations
(Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics-2010).
3. Literature review:
Internal migration was in fact considered a natural process in which the surplus
labor was withdrawn from the rural sector for supplying the manpower
needed for urban industrial growth.
3.1Education:
There is a substantial research literature relating to links between education
and migration. Much of it has focused on the question of whether people with
higher levels of education are more likely to migrate. Empirical studies have
supported this prediction in many but not all contexts (Williams 2009).
In almost all of the countries studied, urban migrants were richer than rural
non-migrants, and in all of them, urban migrants had better education
indicators than rural non-migrants (Harttgen and Klasen, 2009). Their study
was conducted by calculating migration specific HDI (MHDI), which is the
arithmetic average of three dimension indices namely life expectancy index by
internal migration status, GDP index by internal migration status and education
index (adult literacy index & enrollment index) by internal migration status.
Chaudhury (1978) found that the overall education level of migrants is higher
than that of non-migrants and the propensity to migrate increase with the
increase in education beyond secondary level. Yasmeen (1990) and Nabi(1992)
3.3Demographic characteristics:
In Bangladesh, out migration is higher among smaller and larger sized family.
The high rate among the small sized may be due to the presence of unrelated
or single individuals who generally represent the most mobile segment of the
population. The high rate among the large sized household may result either
from the pressure exerted by the families themselves for adequate support of
all the members (Chaudhury and Curlin,1975). They divided the populations
into two groups- group A (includes years and age sex specific rates) and group
B (marital structure, family structure, family size and occupation). Then they
divide the number of populations of in and out migrations for both two groups
by mid year populations and beginning year populations. It is a qualitative
analysis.
Bhuyan, Khan and Ahmed (2001) conducted a study on rural-urban migration
using linear regression econometric model. Their purpose was to identify the
relevant factors that promote migration and have shown a positive association
between age and the decision to migrate. Also the marital status of the
principal migrant has a strong influence on the decision to migrate.
Rokib (2009) showed that religion, educational qualification and occupation
of the household head have positive direct effects on migration. He used a
standardized multiple regression analysis (using a standardized form of
dependent and predictor variables with mean zero and unit variance) in which
a chain of relationships among the variables, arranged in an orderly manner, is
examined through a series of regression equations.
The never married migrants are always in an advantageous position to migrate
because they are young and few family ties (Nabi, 1999).
Females migrate in the earlier age due to marriage, in middle age to join their
husbands and in older age to join the childrens family either as dependents or
as helping hands. Nabi (1992) concluded that males migrate in the earlier age
in search of job, in middle age due to changes in either occupation or work
place and in older age to return home after retirement. To conduct the study
he used the ordinary least square technique and variables was entered in a
predetermined order.
The proposed study is different from others in the point of view that we are
going to examine the actual relationship between different levels of education
a person may hold and how it affects his migration decision.
4. Research methods and analysis:
4.1 Theoretical ideas underlying the study:
Actually migration decision and its determining factors specially different levels
of education is of concern since it is apparent that people with higher
education level have a tendency of migrating either internally or
internationally because of high probability of obtaining job, opportunity to get
higher wages or income and better standard of living as well in the migrated
area.
Several studies are conducted in this field. Our current study is based on the
following theories:
First, according to Harris and Todaro (1970), people with higher level of
education are more likely to migrate (within a country or internationally).
Second, according to Lewis (1954), economy is comprised of two sectors:
traditional backward sector (subsistence agriculture) and a developed modern
sector (urban-based manufacturing industry). Whereas the former exhibits
static, and with population growth, returns, the latter is dynamic, with
growing productivity. The widening productivity differential drives higher
wage and opportunities in the modern, urban-based sector, and hence rapid
and mass migration. The backward sector, where the marginal product of labor
is close to zero, possesses an abundant supply of workers.
4.4 Variables:
A number of variables will be used using different information. Here is a set of
the names of variables as follows:
a) Individuals status of education: years of schooling
b) Income (monthly household income)
c) Land (farm size of the household)
d) Wealth (initial asset value)
e) Occupation: agro based and non-agro based
f) Decision of household to migration (migrate and do not migrate)
g) Family size
h) Age
i) Marital status
j) Natural disaster
k) Gender
4.5 Methods for data analysis:
In this paper, we focus on the major determinants of migration decision. To
analyze the result, we use the logistic regression model. Moreover, we will
follow the following econometric model:
Migrationdecisioni=1+2educationi+3incomei+4occupationi+5agei
+6Wealthi+7FarmSizei+8familysizei+9maritalstatusi+10genderi
+11Naturaldisasteri+ i
Here, occupation, marital status and gender variables are used as dummy and
i is the error term.
7. References:
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (2011), Household Income and Expenditure
survey 2010, BBS: Dhaka.
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (1991, 2001 and 2011), Census Reports
1991, 2001 and 2011; BBS Website: http://www.bbs.gov.bd/
Bhuyan, AR, Khan, HAR and Ahmed, SU (2001), Rural Urban Migration and
Poverty: The Case for Reverse Migration in Bangladesh, MAP Focus Study
Series No. 10
Cameron, S (2012), Education, Urban Poverty and Migration: Evidence from
Bangladesh and Vietnam, Working Paper 2012-15, UNICEF Office of Research,
Florence.
Chaudhury, RH & Curlin, GC (1975), Dynamics of Migration in a Rural Area
of Bangladesh, BIDS, Dhaka.
Chaudhury, RH (1978), Determinants and Consequences of Rural outMigration: Evidence from Some Villages in Bangladesh, Oriental Geographer,
Vol.. 22, Nos. 1&2. pp. 1-20
Courchene, TJ (1970), Interprovincial migration and economic adjustment,
Canadian J. of Economics 3: 550-576
De, Haan, A (2000), Migrants, Livelihoods, and Rights: The Relevance of
Migration in Development Policies, In Social Development Working Paper, No.
4. London: Department for International Development.
Farhana, KM, Rahman, SA and Rahman, M (2012), Factors of Migration in
Urban Bangladesh: An Empirical Study of Poor Migrants in Rajshahi City,
Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology. Volume 9, Number 1.
Gormley, PJ (1971), A comparison of the determinants of white and nonwhite interstate migration, Demography 8: 141-155.
Greenwood, MJ (1975), Research on internal migration in the United States: a
survey, J. of Econ. Literature 13: 397-433.