Budget08 Released on 17 November 2009

ppt version 25 November 2009

Carbon
Budget
2008
GCP-Global Carbon Budget Consortium
Artist Impression of the Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle
 GCP-Carbon Budget2008 Consortium
Corinne Le Quéré Mark R. Lomas
School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U
British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Joseph Majkut
Michael R. Raupach AOS Program, Princeton University, PO Box CN710, Princeton, New Jersey,
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, USA
Australia Nicolas Metzl
Josep G. Canadell LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et
Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Marie Curie, Paris, France
Australia Jean P. Ometto
Gregg Marland Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos-SP, Brazil
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Glen P. Peters
Ridge, Tennessee, USA Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway
Laurent Bopp Colin Prentice
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA- QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK
CNRS-UVSQ, France James T. Randerson
Philippe Ciais Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine,
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 1572 CEA- California, USA
CNRS-UVSQ, France Steven W. Running
Thomas J. Conway School of Forestry/Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, University of
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Montana, Missoula, USA
Scott C. Doney Jorge L. Sarmiento
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton,
Richard A. Feely USA
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA Ute Schuster
Pru Foster School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Stephen Sitch
Pierre Friedlingstein School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France Taro Takahashi
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, New York, USA
Kevin Gurney Nicolas Viovy
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and Department of Agronomy, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-
Purdue University, Indiana, USA UVSQ, France
Richard A. Houghton Guido R. van der Werf
Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam 1081 HV,
Joanna I. House Netherlands
QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK F. Ian Woodward
Chris Huntingford Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield,
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK UK
Peter E. Levy
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK
 Fossil Fuel Emissions and Cement Production
[1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1 Billion metric tonnes = 1 Gigatonne = 1x1015g]

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

Growth rate: 3.4% per year
9

8
2008:
Growth rate: 1.0% per year Emissions: 8.7 PgC
7 Growth rate: 2.0%
1990 levels: +41%
6
2000-2008
Growth rate: 3.4%
1990 2000 2010

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

 CO2 Fossil Fuel Emissions

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 5 55%

Annex B (Kyoto Protocol)

4 Developed Nation

3 45%

Developing Nations
2 Non-Annex B

1990 2000 2010

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Top Emitters (>4% of Total)

Carbon Emissions per year 2000

China

1600
USA
(tons x 1,000,000)

1200

800

Russian Fed. India

400
Japan

0
1990 03 05 07 99 01 03 05 2008
Time
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Profile Examples (1-4% of Total)

Carbon Emissions per year UK

160

Canada
(tons x 1,000,000)

South Africa
120

Brazil
80
Australia Spain

40
Denmark

0
1990 03 05 07 99 01 03 05 2008
Time
Global Carbon Project 2009; Data: Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
Balance of Emissions Embodied in Trade (BEET)
Year 2004
Warm colors Æ Net exporters of embodied carbon MtC
Cold colors Æ Net importers of embodied carbon BEET

Peters and Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech., updated

 Transport of Embodied Emissions

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

5 55% 5
Annex B
Annex B Developed Nations
4 Developed Nations 4
45%
3 3 25% of growth
Developing Nations
2 Non-Annex B 2 Developing Nations
Non-Annex B

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich
2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009
Cumulative Fraction of Total FF Emissions 2008
Number of Country Cumulative
Countries Fraction
1 China .232
3 countries
2 USA .419 50% Global Emissions
3 India .477
4 Russia .530
5 Japan .573 10 countries
2/3 Global Emissions
6 Germany .599
7 Canada .617
8 UK .633
9 South Korea .652
10 Iran .668
Top 5 + EU
20 Poland .800 80% Global Emissions
50 (2005) Belarus .941
100 (2005) Moldova .992
210 Gregg Marland, CDIAC 2009
1.00
 Components of FF Emissions

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 4

40%

3 Oil
36%
Coal

2
Gas
1
Cement
0
1990 2000 2010

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

 Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal Emissions

CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 300 2006-2008

250
90% of growth
200

150

100

50

0
China India US World
-50

CDIAC 2009; Global Carbon Project 2009

 Per Capita CO2 Emissions

Per Capita Emissions Developed

countries
1.3 continue to
lead with the
(tC person-1 y-1)

highest
emission per
1.2
capita

1.1

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 2009

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y )
-1

9
A1B
A1FI
8 A1T
A2
B1
7 B2

5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth

-1.1%

International Monetary Fund, October 2009

Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
International Energy Agency
Fossil Fuel Emission (GtC y )
-1

Projection
9
A1B
A1FI
8 A1T Projection 2009
A2 Emissions: -2.8%
B1 GDP: -1.1%
7 B2 C intensity: -1.7%

5
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009
 CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change

10
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

6 Fossil fuel

4
Land use change
2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
 Net CO2 Emissions from LUC in Tropical Countries

CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 600

2000-2005

500 Brazil 60%

400
Indonesia

300
Cameroon Colombia

Venezuela
200 Nicaragua
Peru
Rep.Dem.Congo
India
100 Nigeria Philippines Nepal

0
4-2% 2-1% <1%

RA Houghton 2009, unpublished; Based on FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment

Emissions from Land Use Change (2000-2005)

(Area)

Canadell et al. 2009, Biogeosciences

 Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones

Global Fire Emissions Dataset (vs2)

deforestation zones (TgC y-1)

Fire Emissions from

van der Werf et al. 2006, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, updated
 Total Anthropogenic Emissions 2008

10
8.7
CO2 emissions (PgC y-1)

6 Fossil fuel
9.9 PgC
4
Land use change 1.2
2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 12% of total

anthropogenic
emissions

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: CDIAC, FAO, Woods Hole Research Center 2009
 Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

Year 2008
385 ppm
38% above pre-industrial

Annual Mean Growth Rate

2008 1.79
2007 2.12
2006 1.77
2005 2.41
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 2004 1.62
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 2003 2.22
2002 2.40
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2001 1.85
2000 - 2008: 1.9 ppm y-1 2000 1.24

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, NOAA/ESRL

 Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle
Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere

10 Total
CO2 Partitioning (PgC y-1)
CO2 emissions
8

4 Atmosphere

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Data: NOAA, CDIAC; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

 Airborne Fraction
Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere

1.0
Trend: 0.27±0.2 % y-1 (p=0.9)
0.8
Airborne Fraction
45%
40%
0.6

0.4

0.2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences
Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Estimated Trends in Sea-Air pCO2

1981-2007 μatm y-1

outgas

uptake

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

Possible Reasons for a Positive Trend in Airborne Fraction

• Emissions are rising faster than the time scales regulating the
rate of uptake by sinks.

• Sinks are becoming less efficient at high CO2

– Land: saturation of the CO2 fertilization effect
– Ocean: decrease in [carbonate] which buffers CO2

• Land and/or ocean sinks are responding to climate change

and variability.

• We are missing sink processes in models that are contributing

to the observed changes.
 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1) PgC

deforestation
Source

tropics
extra-tropics
1.4
Sink

Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC

fossil fuel emissions

7.7
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
Source

deforestation
1.4
Sink

Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC

fossil fuel emissions

7.7
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
Source

deforestation
1.4
atmospheric CO2
4.1
Sink

Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC

fossil fuel emissions

7.7
CO2 flux (Pg C y-1)
Source

deforestation
1.4
atmospheric CO2
4.1
Sink

ocean
2.3 (4 models)

Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC

fossil fuel emissions

7.7
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
Source

deforestation
1.4
atmospheric CO2
4.1
Sink

land
3.0 (5 models)
ocean
2.3 (4 models)

Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget
2000-2008
PgC

fossil fuel emissions

7.7
CO2 flux (PgC y-1)
Source

deforestation
1.4
atmospheric CO2
4.1
Sink

land
3.0 (5 models)
ocean
2.3 (4 models)
0.3 Residual
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience
 Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2008)
1.4 PgC y-1 4.1 PgC y-1
45%

3.0 PgC y-1

7.7 PgC y-1 + 29%

26%
2.3 PgC y-1

Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS, updated
Global Carbon Project 2009
 Conclusions

• The efficiency of the natural sinks has being declining over

the last 60 years, a trend not fully captured by climate
models.

• The human perturbation of the carbon cycle continues to

grow strongly and track the most carbon intensive
scenarios of the IPCC. The economic crisis will likely have
a transitional impact on the growth of CO2 emissions and a
undetectable effect on the growth of atmospheric CO2
(because the much larger inter-annual variability of the
natural sinks).
 References cited in this ppt

• Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Houghton RA (2009) Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in

Africa. Biogeosciences 6: 463-468.
• International Monetary Fund (2009) World economic outlook. October 2009.
• http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/02/index.htm
• Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the
sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689.
• Marland G, Hamal K, Jonas M (2009) How uncertain are estimates of CO2
emissions. Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7.
• Peters GP, Hertwich E G (2008) CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global
climate policy. Environmental Science and Technology 42, 1401-1407.
• Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Le Quéré C (2008) Drivers of interannual to interdecadal
variability in atmospheric in atmospheric CO2 growth rate and airborne fraction.
Biogeosciences 5: 1601–1613.
• Sitch S, Huntigford C, Gedney N et al. (2008) Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon
cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic
Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). Global Change Biology 14: 1–25, doi:
10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01626.x.
• van der Werf GR, Randerson JT, Giglio L, Collatz GL, Kasibhatla PS, Arellano AF, Jr
(2006) Interannual variability in global biomass burning emissions from 1997 to 2004.
Atmos. Chem. Phys. 6: 3423–3441.
www.globalcarbonproject.org