Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

PetroVietnam Gas
Corporation

5/31/2013

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

PetroVietnam Gas Corporation (GAS HOSE) - BUY

Investment Case

Investment Rationales:

Investment Fundamentals:
Items (VNDbn)
Net revenue
Operating EBIT
Reported net profit
EPS (VND)
EPS growth
DPS (VND)
ROA
ROE
Net debt to equity

FY2012A
68,301
11,707
9,807
5,175
28.7%
3000
21.6%
38.7%
-13.2%

FY2013E
66,700
13,957
12,255
6,467
25.0%
3000
25.9%
41.0%
-25.2%

Shareholder structure

Attractive valuation, underpinned by solid returns

GAS is expected to outperform regional peers in terms of ROE (38.7% vs.
15.9%) and ROA (21.6% vs. 5.8%)
GAS is trading at 9.4x PER, 30% discount to regional peers of 13.4x

GAS is the sole and dominant player in the natural gas and gas related industry,
supplying 40% gas to Vietnam electricity consumption, 70% to fertilizer
manufacturers and 70% to the domestic LPG needs

Positive long-term growth industry: As the country is growing fast, shortage of

energy supply holds output price increase outpace that of inputs, guarantee GASs
strong profit return in the foreseeable future (shortage of 2.31bcm by 2015, 7.5bcm by
2020 and 15.5bcm by 2025)

Strong balance sheet: cash balance and cash generation power, GAS is able to
maintain a strong balance sheet with managable debt level in spite of huge capex
nature of the business

1.97% 1.31%

96.72%

PVN

Foreigners

Key investment Risks:

Pricing risk: with regards to national energy security, GAS is still booking
selling price to electricity producers at concessional rate. Selling price is
subjected to adjustment of the government, if necessary

Political risk: increased tension with China in East Sea has slow downed O&G
exploration in the water recently. Sales of stake to strategic investor(s), hence,
should be delayed at least until 2016

SOE factor A discount to valuation: with a holding of 96.72% by the end of

2012, the SOE conglomerate PVN is a formidable power at GAS. Minority
investors are at no place to impose positive impact to the company

Local Investors

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Table of Contents

Agenda

Case Summary

Company and business overview

Earnings driver 1: high margin dry gas business

Earnings driver 2: steady growing LPG segment

Earnings driver 3: high margin gas transportation

Valuation summary

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Company profile

Overview of GAS

FY2012A Revenues
Condensate
0.5%
Others

Gas
transportation
3.5%

2.1%

LPG
40.3%

Natural
gas
53.6%

A subsidiary of Petro Vietnam Group (PVN)

The monopoly in collecting and distributing natural gas in Vietnam
5/2012: Listed 1.95 billion stocks in Ho Chi Minh stock exchange
Market capitalization as of 29/05/2013 reached $bn 5.46
Natural gas from PV Gas contributed to supply 40% electricity volume,
70% fertilizer volume & 70% LPG volume nationwide.

Key operations of GAS

Dry gas to
power plant

FY2012A - Gross Profits

Condensate
1%

Dry gas to
fertilizer plant

Gas
transportation
13%

LPG
24%

Dry gas to
industrial parks
Natural gas
59%

Gas collecting

Transportation

LPG

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Overview of GAS

Corporate structure
PVN

PV Gas

100% owned companies

Subsidiaries
35.3% Cty CP Kinh Doanh kh ho lng
Min Nam (PGS)

Cty ch bin kh vng tu

35.9%
Cty Vn chuyn kh ng
Nam B

76.5%

Cty CP Kinh doanh kh ho lng

Min Bc (PVG)

Associates

19.6%

1.5%

Cty CP Vn ti du kh Cu
Long PCT

Ngn hng ng Nam

Cty CP T v Xy lp kh PVID

Cty kh C Mau

Cty t vn qun l d n
kh
Cty kinh doanh sn phm
kh
Cty ng ng kh Nam
Cn Sn
Cty iu hnh ng ng
L B- Mn

35.5%

Cty CP u t v pht trin gas

th - Gas City

50.5%

Cty CP phn phi kh thp p

du kh Vit Nam PGD

60.0%

70.9%

Cty CP th thao vn ho du kh

Cty CP Bnh Kh du kh Vit

Nam

94.0% Cty CP SX ng thp du kh Vit

Nam
5

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Operataion of GAS

Operating model
LPG

Cuu Long basin

Bch H pipeline
Condensate

Dinh Co GPP

Dry gas
Nam Cn Sn 2
pipeline (to be
completed by 2016)

PV Oils

Low pressure
pipeline

Nam Cn Sn 1
pipeline

Nam Cn Sn basin

Thi Vai port

Industrial
parks

GDC/GDS

Electricity,
fertilizer
PM3 C Mau
pipeline
Mui Tram
Landfall
station

Malay-Tho Chu basin

Electricity,
fertilizer

Block B O Mon
pipeline (to be
completed by 2016)
6

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Operation of GAS

Growing demand for natural gas

1000 MW
(GW)

Natural gas electricity demand

Dry gas

20

Electricity source from natural gas will

increase 97% from 2010 to 2030
Source: Energy Master Plan VII

LNG

15

6.0
2.0

10

8.8

10.4

11.3

2010

2020

2030

Natural gas shortage

From 2016, Vietnam may start to import

LNG to supply for domestic use.

The construction of Thi Vai LNG 1mmtpa

Terminal, the only LNG terminal in
Vietnam, will ensure longer term growth.
Source: PV Gas

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Growing demand for LPG

Operation of GAS

Demand & PV Gas supply of LPG

Million m3

1,500
1,429

1,461
1,391

1,328
1,311

1,177
793

1,001

400

692

70% of market share

887

800

474

PV Gas and its subsidiaries are holding

1,237
1,166

1200

800

Demand for LPG was growing at 8%/year

from 2007 -2012

310

1,277
1,275

1600

Source: PV Gas, estimates

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Demand

USD/ton
1500

Long term increase in LPG price due to

increase in curde oil price

Crude oil price vs. LPG price

LPG price

Crude oil

USD/bbl
120

80
1000

Source: Aramco, Thomson Reuters, World Bank

40

500

Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
2013
2014
2015

PV Gas supply

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Oil & gas reserves in Vietnam

Potential of GAS

1 tcm = 1000 bn m3
R/P= Reserves/Production

2.4 tcm
R/P: 39.2

2.9 tcm
R/P: 29.8

Vietnam proved reserves of natural

gas is about 600 bn m3

0.6 tcm
R/P: 64.3

With current pace of production, the

3.0 tcm
R/P: 39.2

reserve can last up to 64

years*

(*)Esitimate based on 2012 production

Source: BP

Current gas fields

Basin

Cu Long

Nam Cn Sn

Malay Th Chu

Lot

Since

Products

Bch H (09.1)

1995

Associate gas

Rng/i Mi (09.3)

2010

Associate gas

S t en (15.1)

2003

Associate gas

Rng ng (15.2)

2001

Associate gas

C Ng vng (09.2)

2008

Associate gas

Lan Ty (6.1)

2002

Dry gas

Rng i (11.2)

2006

Dry gas

Mc Tinh (5.3)

2013

Dry gas

Hi Thch (5.2)

2013

Dry gas

PM3

2003

Dry gas

46 Ci Nc

2003

Dry gas

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Potential of GAS

Map of GAS activities

Unit: millions of m3 of oil equivalent
Song Hong basin:
Reserves
Production

Phu Khanh basin:

Cuu Long basin:

1100

250

370

820
500

Nam Con Son basin:

970
250

Malay Tho Chu basin:

370
210

10

Source: GAS

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Tng cng ty kh Vit Nam (GAS)

Financial Overview

Strong earning results, thanks to positive selling price calalysts

GAS - Revenues & Profits
100,000

70.0%
60.7%

81,702
16,033

25.0%

3.9%

25.0%

50.0%

20.0%

40.0%

17,395

75,182

66,700

68,301

60.0%

15,433

20,000

12,350

40,000

34.2%

7,686

60,000

64,225

80,000

15.0%

30.0%
5.0%

FY2012A
Net revenue

Items (VNDbn)
Net revenue
Operating EBIT
Reported net profit
EPS (VND)
EPS growth
DPS (VND)
ROA
ROE
Net debt to equity

FY2013E
EBT

FY2014E

16.4%

26.5%

25.3%

24.2%

24.4%

16.9%

16.9%

FY2014E

FY2015E

21.5%
18.4%

16.4%

14.4%

9.2%

FY2011A

FY2015E

EBT Growth

FY2011A
64,225
7,720
5,913
4,022
-11.4%
1200
13.9%
26.0%
2.8%

26.1%

0.0%

0.0%
FY2011A

26.1%
21.8%

10.0%

20.0%

8.5% 10.0%

Key Margin Ratios

30.0%

FY2012A

Gross profit margin

FY2012A
68,301
11,707
9,807
5,175
28.7%
3000
21.6%
38.7%
-13.2%
11

FY2013E
66,700
13,957
12,255
6,467
25.0%
3000
25.9%
41.0%
-25.2%

FY2013E
EBITDA margin

Net profit margin

FY2014E
75,182
15,722
12,732
6,719
3.9%
3000
23.5%
35.2%
-9.9%

FY2015E
81,702
17,440
13,813
7,289
8.5%
3000
21.9%
31.6%
3.5%

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Tng cng ty kh Vit Nam (GAS)

Financial Overview

Natual gas, Gas transportation and LPG the 3 earning pillars:

Gross profit contribution

100%
80%
60%

30%
14%

24%

17%

13%

26%

26%

25%

59%

52%

51%

52%

18%

19%

80.0%
60.0%

40%
20%

52%

20.0%

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

Natural gas

Gas transportation LPG

Condensate

Office leasing

85.6%

86.6%

86.8%

24.0%

27.8%

27.5%

28.4%

11.3%

13.3%

11.4%

12.0%

12.4%

FY2011A

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

FY2015E

76.8%

40.0%

0%
FY2011A

Margins by segments

100.0%

FY2015E

0.0%

Others

17.0%

81.4%

Natural gas

LPG

Gas transportation

Natural gas, gas transportation and LPG are the 3 key earning drivers, accounting for more
than 95% of GASs earnings across the years

While LPG margin is dragging down by increased portion of low margin LPG imports, Natural
gas and gas transportation both see improved margins, thanks to positive pricing mechanism

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Natural Gas Segment

Earnings drivers 1

Industrial parks and fertilizer are high margin customers:

Dry Gas Margin by segments

Natual gas segment (VNDbn)

35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
11,794

20.0%
10,632

9,615

29.7%
39,660

28.9%
36,729

29.4%

32,704

9,633

5,296

18.1%

35,065

27.5%

29,208

45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-

15.0%
10.0%
5.0%

0.0%
FY2011A

FY2012A

Revenues

FY2013E
Gross Profit

Revenues by Segments
Electricity
Fertilizer
Industrial Parks
Total

FY2014E

90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%

FY2015E

75.0%

77.8%

52.3%

52.3%

52.3%

27.5%

29.4%

28.9%

29.7%

14.0%

16.1%

16.8%

16.1%

15.1%

FY2011A

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

FY2015E

52.2%
42.9%

20.4%
18.1%

Electricity

Gross Margin

FY2011A
24,205.3
2,232.4
2,770.4
29,208.0

73.0%

70.9%

FY2012A
25,281.3
4,904.7
4,878.8
35,064.9
20.1%

Fertilizer

FY2013E
24,370.5
2,770.5
5,562.8
32,703.9
-6.7%

Industrial Parks

FY2014E
27,604.8
2,882.4
6,241.5
36,728.7
12.3%

Total

FY2015E
29,193.9
2,998.9
7,466.7
39,659.5
8.0%

Natual gas revenues decrease in Fy2013E due to change in accounting treatment at Malay
Tho Chu Basin (revenues will be booked under PVN)
13

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Earnings drivers 1

Natural Gas Segment

Pricing mechanism selling prices outpace input prices at Cuu Long and NCS1 basins:

High selling price adjustment in FY2012A (8.1% for electricity, 54% for fertilizer and 67% for
industrial parks
Input and output price contracts signed and fixed at least until 2015
Entity
FY2011A
Cuu Long
Input price
3.01
Output price
Electricity
4.59
Fertilizer
4.18
Industrial park
6.30
Nam Con Son
Input price
Block 06.1
3.44
Block 11.2
3.32
Output price
Pipeline 06.1& 11.2 <3.55
3.61
Pipeline 06.1& 11.2 >3.55
4.80
Nam Con Son 2 (Hai Thach - Moc Tinh)
Input price
Output price
PM3-46
Input price
4.40
Output price (Electricity)
4.40
Output price (Fertilizer)
4.18
Ghi chu:

-ve impact to margin

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

FY2015E

Note

3.07

3.13

3.19

3.26

2% p.a

8.1% 4.96
54% 6.43
67% 10.55

5.16
6.56
11.61

5.36
6.69
12.77

5.58
6.82
14.68

4% p.a
2% p.a
Market price

3.51
3.21

3.58
3.27

3.65
3.34

3.73
3.40

2% p.a
2% p.a

3.68
4.94

3.75
5.14

3.82
5.34

3.90
5.56

2% p.a
4% p.a

5.36
5.36

5.46
5.46

5.57
5.57

2% p.a
2% p.a

4.40
4.40
6.56

4.40
4.40
6.69

4.40
4.40
6.82

Trans fee
Trans fee
2% p.a

4.40
4.40
6.43

+ve impact to margin

14

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Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Earnings drivers 1

Tng cng ty kh Vit Nam (GAS)

Gas input - growth rate slow down as a result of delay in NCS2 and Block B O-mon pipelines:

Increase in gas input mainly coming from NCS1 basin

Completion of Block B O Mon and NCS2 pipeline (2016 expected) will increase gas
transportation capacity by 6.4bn m3 and 7.0bn m3 p.a respectively from 2016 onwards
Basin (bn m3)
Cuu Long Basin
Bach Ho
Rong, Doi Moi
Black Lion, Gold Lion
Rang Dong - Phuong Dong
Others

FY2011A
1.29

FY2012A
1.26

FY2013E
1.27

FY2014E
1.27

FY2015E
1.27

0.48
0.20
0.27
0.16
0.18

0.42
0.29
0.14
0.12
0.28

0.36
0.29
0.06
0.08
0.47

0.33
0.23
0.08
0.63

0.29
0.22
0.05
0.71

5.83

6.22

7.01

7.51

8.01

4.42
1.41
-

4.50
1.53
0.20
-

4.50
1.31
0.20
1.00

4.50
1.31
0.20
1.50

4.50
1.31
0.20
2.00

Malay Tho Chu

1.60

1.90

1.90

1.90

1.90

PM3 - Ca Mau

1.60

1.90

1.90

1.90

1.90

8.72

9.38
7.6%

10.18
8.5%

10.68
4.9%

11.18
4.7%

Nam Con Son Basin

Block 06.1
Block 11.2
Chim Sao, Thien Ung
Hai Thach - Moc Tinh NCS1

Total
Growth rate (YoY)

15

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Earnings drivers 1

Natural Gas Segment

Gas output consumption electricity customers still top priority:

By basins:
Basin (bn m3)
Cuu Long
Electricity power plant
Fertilizer(required by Gov)
Industrial park

Nam Con Son

Guarantee consumption
Surplus consumption
Hai Thach Moc Tinh
Chim Sao, Thien Ung

Malay - Tho Chu

Electricity ( Ca Mau power plant)
Fertilizer (Ca Mau fertilizer)
Total
Growth rate (YoY)

FY2011A
1.11

FY2012A
1.06

FY2013E
1.07

FY2014E
1.07

FY2015E
1.08

0.08
0.50
0.53

0.50
0.56

0.50
0.57

0.50
0.57

0.50
0.58

5.87

6.22

7.01

7.51

8.01

3.55
2.32
-

3.55
2.48
0.20

3.55
2.26
1.00
0.20

3.55
2.26
1.50
0.20

3.55
2.26
2.00
0.20

1.60
1.44
0.16
8.58

1.90
1.45
0.45
9.18
7.0%

1.90
1.45
0.45
9.98
8.7%

1.90
1.45
0.45
10.48
5.0%

1.90
1.45
0.45
10.99
4.9%

FY2011A
7.39
0.66
0.53
8.58

FY2012A
7.68
0.95
0.56
9.18

FY2013E
8.46
0.95
0.57
9.98

FY2014E
8.96
0.95
0.57
10.48

FY2015E
9.46
0.95
0.58
10.99

86.1%
7.7%
6.2%

83.6%
10.3%
6.1%
1

84.8%
9.5%
5.7%

85.5%
9.1%
5.4%

86.1%
8.6%
5.3%

By customer types:
By industry buyers (bn m3)
Electricity
Fertilizer
Industrial parks
Total
% Electricity
% Fertilizer
% Industrial parks

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

LPG Segment

Earning Drivers 2

Stable output from Dinh Co holds LPG margin around 11%-13% levels
LPG Margin by segments

LPG Segment (VNDbn)

33,579

13.5%

50.0%

13.0%

40.0%

12.5%
12.4%

12.0%

12.0%

4,162

11.5%

3,646

3,064

11.4%

30,512

26,845

3,669

3,233

11.3%

27,581

13.3%

28,627

40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
-

11.0%
10.5%

40.3%

30.0%

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

10.0%
0.0%

FY2015E

8.8%

7.0%

7.0%

7.0%

7.0%

7.0%

5.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.2%

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

FY2015E

FY2011A

Revenues

Gross Profit

37.5%

31.9%

20.0%

10.0%
FY2011A

43.3%

40.5%

Gross Margin
Self production

Dung Quat

Imports

LPG Sources ('000 ton)

Dinh Co
Dung Quat
Imports
Subsidiaries
Total
Growth rate

FY2011A
244.0
66.3
856.0
183.7
1,350.0

FY2012A
257.6
105.2
664.3
247.8
1,274.9
-5.6%

FY2013E
260.5
105.2
697.5
247.8
1,311.0
2.8%

FY2014E
260.5
115.7
767.3
247.8
1,391.3
6.1%

FY2015E
260.5
115.7
805.6
247.8
1,429.6
2.8%

Price assumptions
Selling Price (USD)
Growth rate

FY2011A
904.8
28.7%

FY2012A
1,004.8
11.1%

FY2013E
960.0
-4.5%

FY2014E
1,008.0
5.0%

FY2015E
1,058.4
5.0%

17

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Gas transportation Segment

Earnings drivers 3

Margin improves as transportation volumes go high:

Gas Transportation Segment (VNDbn)

6,368

Margin increase significantly in FY2013E,

90.0%

reaching 87.1%, thanks to increase in gas

85.0%

transportation volume and fee

80.0%

Revenues and gross profit spike from FY2013E

as transportation fee at Malay-Tho Chu start

75.0%

1,955

2,402

1,482

1,000

1,930

2,000

5,179

76.8%

3,000

4,550

4,000

81.4%

5,315

5,000

5,983

85.6%

6,000

86.8%

86.6%

5,527

7,000

booking under this segment during the year

70.0%
FY2011A

FY2012A

Revenues

Trans price (USD)

Nam Con Son
Pipeline 06.1 & 11.2
Hai Thach Moc Tinh
PM3-46

FY2013E

Gross Profit

FY2014E

FY2015E

Gross Margin

FY2011A

FY2012A

FY2013E

FY2014E

FY2015E

1.07
1.05

1.09
1.07

1.12
1.12
1.09

1.14
1.14
1.11

1.16
1.16
1.14

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Others

Capex until FY2016E

Capital Expenditure Huge capex of more than USD3.1bn (VND66.2tn) by FY2016E:

No Project (VNDbn)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Block B - O Mon (PVGas 51%)

Nam Con Son 2 (PVGas 100%)
LNG Thi Vai 1MMT Storage
LPG Thi Vai Refrigerated Storage
GPP Ca Mau Factory
NCS - GPP Dinh Co expansion
Ham Rong-Thai Binh gas gathering
Rong - Phase 1 expansion gas gathering
Thang Long - Dong Do gas gathering
Pipe - LNG Thi Vai - Ph M
Others
SUM

Total
Investment
23,478
27,426
5,158
991
14,907
177
1,339
1,158
592
356
555
76,138

Own by
GAS
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%

Investment
by GAS
11,974
27,426
5,158
2,517
14,907
177
1,339
1,158
592
356
555
66,159

Schedule
1Q2009-2016
4Q2013 - 2016
1Q2013 - 2Q2016
3Q2009-2013
1Q2013 - 2016
1Q2013 - 4Q2013
1Q2013 - 3Q2014
1Q2013 - 4Q2013
2014 - 2015
4Q2013 - 2Q2016
2013-2104

The completions of Block B O Mon, NCS2, LNG Thi Vai, GPP Ca Mau, are expected to
boost GASs revenues and earnings from FY2016E onward

19

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Others

Capex until FY2016E

Capital Expenditure Huge capex of more than USD3.1bn (VND66.2tn) by FY2016E:

No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Projects (VNDbn)
FY2011A
Block B - O Mon (PVGas 51%)
165
Nam Con Son 2 (PVGas 100%)
110
LNG Thi Vai 1MMT Storage
9
LPG Thi Vai Refrigerated Storage
726
GPP Ca Mau Factory
24
NCS - GPP Dinh Co expansion
Ham Rong-Thai Binh gas gathering 28
Rong - Phase 1 expansion gas gathering
Thang Long - Dong Do gas gathering Pipe - LNG Thi Vai - Ph M
Others
SUM
1,062

FY2012A
19
183
61
1,128
49
25
1,464

FY2013E
491
305
1,119
664
352
177
628
1,029
505
5,269

FY2014E
2,993
6,857
1,290
1,491
658
129
414
107
50
13,988

FY2015E
3,592
6,857
1,290
4,472
177
107
16,495

FY2016E
4,714
13,101
1,391
8,519
142
27,867

Strong cash reserves enable GAS to sustain new debts at debt/equity ratio of just 40% while keeping
its dividend commitment

Items (VNDbn)
Cash
Int. bearing debts
New debt (40% capex)
DPS (VND)

FY2011A
10,045
11,017
1,200

FY2012A
12,753
9,231
3,000
20

FY2013E
16,444
8,296
2,107
3,000

FY2014E
13,213
9,355
5,595
3,000

FY2015E
7,751
9,469
6,598
3,000

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

PetroVietnam Gas Corporation Co.

Key ratios:

Ratios
Gross profit margin
EBITDA margin
Net profit margin
ROAA
ROAE
Net debt to equity
Current ratio
Quick ratio
Cash ratio
EPS
EPS growth
EPS (adj. net profit)
BVPS
PER (x)
P/B (x)

FY2011A
16.4%
16.4%
9.2%
13.9%
26.0%
2.8%
185.8%
175.6%
97.1%
4,022
-11.4%
3,795
12,391
15.0
4.9

FY2012A
21.8%
21.5%
14.4%
21.6%
38.7%
-13.2%
252.9%
232.8%
158.3%
5,175
28.7%
5,147
14,349
11.7
4.2

21

FY2013E
26.8%
25.9%
18.9%
26.5%
41.9%
-26.0%
339.6%
320.0%
236.9%
6,655
28.6%
6,075
17,399
9.1
3.5

FY2014E
26.6%
24.7%
17.4%
23.9%
35.6%
-11.5%
349.4%
325.7%
221.9%
6,897
3.6%
6,919
21,296
8.8
2.8

FY2015E
27.0%
24.9%
17.4%
22.2%
31.8%
1.2%
241.0%
219.8%
122.8%
7,484
8.5%
7,503
25,780
8.1
2.3

Private and Confidential

PetroVietnam Gas Corporation Co.

Overview
of GAS
Foreign
actions

Shareholder structure

Foreign investors have increased their

position from 0.38% in May 2012 to

PVN

Local investors

100%

1.97% in May 2013

Foreign investors

99%

2.9

1.31

1.89

98%

The recent surge in stock price is

correlated with the increasing position of
foreign investors.

1.97

1.39

97%

0.38

96%

96.72

96.72

25/05/2012

31/12/2012

96.72

95%

Volume

Foreign trading activities

Price

3,000,000

60

2,500,000

55

2,000,000

Millions of
share
40

28/05/2013

Foreign ownership vs. stock price

Price
70,000

30

50

20

1,500,000

50,000

45
1,000,000

40

500,000

35

10
0

30,000

30

-500,000
05/12

08/12

Volume

11/12

Net buy/sell value

02/13

Price

05/13

Foreign ownership

Stock price

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

PetroVietnam Gas Corporation Co.

Summarized BS and P&L

Balance sheet
Cash & equivalents
Accounts receivable
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
Total investments
Total net fixed assets
In which: WIP
Total intangible assets
Other LT assets
Total assets

FY2011A
10,363
5,848
1,058
1,959
19,228
990
21,207
4,327
483
3,701
45,611

FY2012A
12,822
4,685
1,614
1,251
20,372
868
20,479
5,157
516
2,911
45,146

FY2013E
16,513
4,576
1,405
1,245
23,739
868
22,911
6,068
468
1,660
49,645

FY2014E
13,282
5,157
1,500
1,275
21,214
868
34,478
18,668
426
1,660
58,646

FY2015E
7,819
5,605
1,537
1,297
16,258
868
48,481
34,571
390
1,660
67,657

Total short term debt

Accounts payable
Accrued expenses
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Total long-term debt
Long-term accounts payable
Other liabilities
Total liabilities

2,867
4,215
1,043
2,224
10,349
8,150
633
1,460
20,592

3,042
2,374
1,191
1,449
8,056
6,189
597
1,469
16,311

2,429
2,191
1,099
1,401
7,121
5,867
604
1,425
15,018

1,099
2,470
1,239
1,488
6,297
8,256
611
1,425
16,589

1,659
2,669
1,339
1,551
7,217
7,811
604
1,425
17,057

Paid-up share capital

Retained earnings reserve
Other reserves
Total equity
Total liabilities & equity

18,950
3,542
989
25,019
45,611

18,950
5,072
3,169
28,835
45,146

18,950
11,642
2,023
34,628
49,645

18,950
18,689
2,023
42,057
58,646

18,950
26,817
2,023
50,600
67,657

23

P&L
Net revenue
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
Gen & admin expenses
Selling expenses
Operating profit
Operating EBITDA
Operating EBIT
Net income from investments
Net interest
Net exceptional income
Pre-tax profit
Taxation
Reported net profit

FY2011A
64,225
(53,660)
10,565
(1,611)
(1,234)
7,720
10,504
7,720
318
399
333
7,686
(1,265)
5,913

FY2012A
68,301
(53,395)
14,907
(1,927)
(1,273)
11,707
14,703
11,707
16
628
53
12,350
(2,248)
9,807

FY2013E
66,700
(49,278)
17,423
(2,087)
(1,379)
13,957
16,842
13,957
16
350
1,146
15,433
(2,810)
12,255

FY2014E
75,182
(55,553)
19,629
(2,352)
(1,554)
15,722
18,185
15,722
16
304
16,033
(2,919)
12,732

Ratios
Gross profit margin
EBITDA margin
Net profit margin
ROAA
ROAE
Net debt to equity
Current ratio
Quick ratio
Cash ratio
EPS
EPS growth
EPS (adj. net profit)
BVPS
PER (x)
P/B (x)

FY2011A
16.4%
16.4%
9.2%
13.9%
26.0%
2.8%
185.8%
175.6%
97.1%
4,022
-11.4%
3,795
12,391
15.0
4.9

FY2012A
21.8%
21.5%
14.4%
21.6%
38.7%
-13.2%
252.9%
232.8%
158.3%
5,175
28.7%
5,147
14,349
11.7
4.2

FY2013E
26.1%
25.3%
18.4%
25.9%
41.0%
-25.2%
333.4%
313.6%
230.9%
6,467
25.0%
5,888
17,211
9.4
3.5

FY2014E
26.1%
24.2%
16.9%
23.5%
35.2%
-9.9%
336.9%
313.1%
209.8%
6,719
3.9%
6,741
20,930
9.0
2.9

FY2015E
81,702
(60,017)
21,685
(2,557)
(1,689)
17,440
19,968
17,440
16
(81)
17,395
(3,167)
13,813
FY2015E
26.5%
24.4%
16.9%
21.9%
31.6%
3.5%
225.3%
204.0%
107.4%
7,289
8.5%
7,308
25,219
8.3
2.4

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

y ban xy dng v thc hin chin lc

B phn Ngn hng u t
a ch: 130 Phan ng Lu, Phng 3, Qun Ph Nhun, TP. HCM
T: (84-8) 3995 1483
Website: www.dongabank.com.vn
Ngi lin h: Mr. Nguyn Cao Huynh
TD: 0914.110.101

24

Private and Confidential

Uy ban xy dng va thc hin chin lc B phn Ngn hang u t

Sensitivity check

PetroVietnam Gas Corporation Co.

Market Data & Price Multiples

ROA
TTM
ROE
(%) TTM (%)

Market Cap Consolidated

P/E
TTM

VNM

111,692

18.4

33.0

41.6

MSN

76,288

60.0

3.49

8.5

BVH

Ticker

35,725

28.6

17,477

6.2

3.00
30.4

11.3

DPM
DHG

5,360

10.6

22.2

31.7

31.7

19.1

26.3

116,543 10.01 21.61

38.7

Bnh qun theo trng s vn ho

GAS

25

35.1

P/E
10
11
12
13
14

Target Price
64,673
71,140
77,607
84,074
90,542

Private and Confidential