INDR 430/530 Fall 2013

Pelin G. Canbolat

HOMEWORK 1 (due Friday, October 11 by 23:59)

Instructions. You can work on and submit the homework in groups of two (or one, but not three or
more!). Each group must work on the homework on its own. Any sort of cheating will result in a grade
of zero for the homework and disciplinary action. Please submit your answers as a typed report in the
homework folder.
1. Give an example of a good decision with a bad outcome and an example of a poorly made decision with
a good outcome.
2. Construct a fundamental-objectives hierarchy and a means-objectives network for the context of taking
INDR 430/530.
3. Consider a patient who has been diagnosed with heart disease. If left untreated, the disease will shorten
the remaining life of the patient and gradually deteriorate its quality. The doctor suggests bypass surgery
as the only treatment option. Based on past experience, the surgery is most likely to be successful, in
which case the patient will have a longer and healthier life afterwards. There is a slight chance that the
patient will die during the surgery.
(a) Draw an influence diagram and a decision tree for the patients decision about bypass surgery,
assuming that the patient is concerned only with her life quality.
(b) A second doctor that the patient sees informs her about a third possible outcome of bypass surgery.
There is a chance that the patient will need to go through a long and painful treatment if complications arise during the surgery. Following this long treatment, the patient will either recover (fully or
partially) or die a few months later. Revise the influence diagram and the decision tree you obtained
in the previous part according to this new information.
(c) How would you construct an attribute scale for the patients life quality?
4. A friend of yours (not a very close one) asks you to lend her some money. You have the amount of money
she needs, but you are not sure about lending it to her. If you give her the money and she does not return
it by the time you will need the money, then you will be in trouble. However, if she returns it before you
need it, then you will be very happy with yourself for helping someone in need. Who knows, maybe you
can get further benefits from this as well... If you refuse to lend her the money, you keep the money to
yourself, but you might feel somewhat guilty for not helping someone in need when you could.
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)

Identify your objective(s) in this decision context.

Identify the risks involved in this situation.
Draw an influence diagram that represents this decision problem.
Draw a decision tree that represents this decision problem.
You suddenly recall that you have this other friend, who, you think, knows the one that asks for
money better than you do. Modify your influence diagram and your decision tree to include the
option to ask your other friend for advice and the uncertainties associated with this option.

5. The prime minister of Turkey has recently announced a democratization package, including changes in
the current election and education systems. Answer (a)-(d) for ONE of the decision contexts below.
(i) The current electoral threshold in Turkey is 10% and has been criticized for restricting representation.
The package offers three alternatives for the revision of the electoral threshold: (1) to keep the
threshold and the election system unchanged, (2) to decrease the threshold to 5%, and (3) to eliminate
the threshold. The latter two alternatives are accompanied by the narrowing of electoral districts at
different degrees.
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(ii) Another item in the package concerns education in different languages and dialects. The offered
change enables the establishment of private schools where teaching would be primarily in a language
other than Turkish. In this case, minority groups can have a choice between private education in
their mother tongue, and public or private education in Turkish. Consider the decision problem
faced by the parent of a 7-year old Kurdish child, who needs to choose between private education in
Kurdish and public education in Turkish.
(a) What could be the objective(s) in this decision context? How would you quantify each objective?
(b) What are the uncertainties involved in this situation?
(c) What reports and/or surveys can be relevant to this decision?
(d) Draw an influence diagram to represent this decision problem.