Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
January 26, 2009
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such forecasts merely reflect the
expectations of the Company's management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect",
"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous
expressions, are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and
uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Therefore, the future results of
operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations
exclusively on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the
presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or future developments. Figures
for 2009 on are estimates or targets.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their
filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual
production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing
economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as oil and
gas resources, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with
the SEC.
A WORLD-CLASS, PUBLIC, INTEGRATED ENERGY COMPANY
23.0
3.9 3.8
17.9
3.2
(mmboe/d)
2.5
(bln boe)
X OM BP RDS P BR C VX T OT C OP ENI ST L
XOM BP RDS CVX PBR COP TOT STL ENI
Source: Evalua te Energy and Company reports Source: Evalua te Energy and Company reports
2008 Refining Capacity Market Value as of July 1, 2009
Market Value as of December 31, 2008
5,675
406.1
3,905
(US$ bn)
(mcb/d)
3,119 2,917
2,600
2,223 2,083 161.1 150.3 143.6 128.7 77.2
96.8 93.6
828 52.2
299
XOM RDS BP COP TOT PBR CVX ENI STL XOM RDS CVX BP TOT PBR ENI COP STL
Source: PFC Energy WRMS
(barrels per calendar day, considering c ompany % s hareholding and including JVs) Source: Bloomberg
Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the public markets. 3
DELIVERING OUTSTANDING GROWTH
EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE
Since August 2007 when we released our
last strategic plan, we have:
1
3Q 2008 vs. 3Q 2007 4
IMPRESSIVE RECORD OF ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT
Production (b/d)
54 years
16 years
22 years
27 years
45 years
12 years
Number of years
Production since founding of Discovery of Garoupa in Discovery of giant fields in Campos Discovery of the Pre-salt,
Petrobras (1954) the Campos Basin (1974) Basin inc. Albacora (1984) including Parati (2006)
5
A CONTINUED COMMITMENT TO R&D…
US$ mm % of Revenues
120 0 4%
100%
100 0
3% 80% International
80 0 G&E
60% Corporate
60 0 2% Downstream
40%
E&P
40 0
20%
1%
20 0 0%
0 0%
RDS PBR TOT XOM PTR SLB BP CVX SPC BHI STL ENI HAL BHP GAZP
20 07 R&D % of Revenues
HESS ENI
2% 2%
BG
TOT 4%
6% PBR
APC 23%
6%
CVX
7%
BP XOM
9% 15%
STL
RDS
13% 13%
Source: PFC Energy | Note: Est imat ed volu mes above r eflect wh at operator s ar e r espon sib le for produ cing , not what they keep on a n et working
inter est o r entitlement basis. M inimu m wat er d epth is 300 met er s; eleven operator s above account for 94% of glob al deep water produ ction in 2007. 7
STRATEGIC VISION: TO BE ONE OF THE WORLD’S FIVE LARGEST
PUBLICLY TRADED OIL PRODUCERS
Production
30,000 Target: 2020
25,000
Reserves (mm boe)
Production XOM
20,000 Target: 2013
BP
Production
Target: 2009
15,000
PBR
10,000 CVX RDS
COP
TOT
5,000
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
Production (mboe/d)
2007 (SEC) reserves and production
8
DOMINANT POSITION IN A LARGE AND GROWING EMERGING MARKET
6
5.1
0
US
France
S. Korea
UK
Germany
Mexico
China
Japan
Iran
India
Canada
Brazil
Saudi
Italy
Russia
150
140
Brazil oil consumption
130
growing at 2.4% p.a.
120
OECD oil consumption
growing at 1% p.a. 110
100
1991
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: BP Statistical Review 2008, PFC Energy
9
HIGH-POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO IN ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST EXCITING
PROVINCES...
Kashagan
Sakhalin II
Sakhalin I
Kurmangazi
Thunder Shah
Horse Deniz Azadegan
Khurais Anaran
Roncador
Marlim
Albacora Agbami
Akpo
Iara
Jupiter Dalia Kizomba
Tupi
Carioca Girassol, Jaz, Rosa
82% of our total crude
production currently
comes from Campos
Basin Development of the Santos Basin
sub-salt play will drive our long-
term production growth
10
AND APPLYING UNIQUE EXPERTISE TO SELECTED INTERNATIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES
9.0% p.y.
223
341
Total Investments
US$ 15.9 billion
5% 1% 17% 16%
8%
7% 5%
22%
28%
79%
12%
Argentina Angola
E&P RTCP
G&E Distribution USA Nigeria
Corporate New Opportunities Other Countries
12
GROWING OPTIONS IN BIOFUELS AND LOW-CARBON TECHNOLOGIES...
16%
Participate in Brazilian ethanol chain and
develop global markets for Brazilian ethanol
Participate sustainably in the biodiesel
business in Brazil and with selective
international investments
Develop competitive technologies to produce
biofuels from residual biomass
84%
Ethanol Biodiesel
13
WHICH CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN IMPORTANCE
15
HOWEVER, THE MEDIUM/LONG-TERM OIL MARKET OUTLOOK REMAINS VERY
STRONG
mm b/d
140
60
Observed decline
Additional Required
40 Capacity (b/d)
Actual decline
Existing production Natural decline
20 Natural decline 2020 | 55 – 65 mm
Existing production
Existing production 2030 | 75 – 90 mm
0
2012
2028
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2030
Production in most non-OPEC countries is at a plateau or in decline;
Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth;
Lower demand and capital spending during current down-cycle will postpone the
crunch, but not eliminate it.
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, EIA International Energy Outlook 2007 16
AND PRE-SALT CAN BE DEVELOPED AT A RELATIVELY LOW COST
140
Deepwater and
120
Ultra-deep water
Production costs (US$/bbl-2008)
100
Oil Gas to Coal to
80 Shales liquids liquids
Arctic
60
EOR
CO -
Heavy oil
EOR
and
bitumen
40
Other
20 convention Petrobras expected
Produced MEN A al o il
maximum break-even cost
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
Expand operations in target markets for oil, oil products, petrochemicals, gas and energy, biofuels and distribution and to
be recognized as a model integrated energy company
Grow oil and gas Capture value added Consolidate leadership Expand integrated To have a global
production in a sustainable through expansion of in the Brazilian natural petrochemicals presence in the
manner, and become one integrated operations in gas market while operations while biofuels business
of the five largest oil refining, establishing an capturing synergies with participation in
producers in the world commercialization, international presence within Petrobras the biodiesel and
logistics & distribution and increase domestic ethanol businesses
with a focus on the electricity generation
Atlantic Basin and Far business
East
Downstream
E&P Distribution Gas & Energy Petrochemicals Biofuels
(RTC)
18
AND A CAREFULLY CRAFTED SPENDING PROGRAM TO SUPPORT THAT
VISION
Business Plan 2009-2013
2% 2% 2%
3% US$ 174.4 billion
7% 5.6 3.0 E&P
11.8 2.8
RTC
3.2
G&E
Petrochemicals
43.4 104.6 (*) Distribution
25% 59%
Biofuels
Corporate
2% 1% 2%
4% US$ 112.4 billion
6% 4.3 2.6
E&P
6.7 1.5
RTC
2.5
G&E
Petrochemicals
26% 29.6 65.1
Distribution
59%
Biofuels
Corporate
19
WITH MOST OF THE INCREASES RELATED TO NEW PROJECTS
200 8.1
3.4 2.9
180
17.1
160
140 47.9
120
100
80 174.4
US$ billion
60 111.2
40
20
0
2009‐13 S pend + New + C os t + Ajus tment to + E xchang e ‐ Others * 2009‐2013
(as declared in P rojects Increas e projects rate effect Inv es tment
prev ious P lan
B us ines s
P lan)
(*) Change in Business Model, excluded projects, change in aschedule| Note: Investment levels do not reflect expected
declines in future costs 20
PRIORITIZING E&P PROJECTS
36.6
77%
E&P RTC
G&E Biofuels
(PQF, Dist., Corp)
21
FLEXIBLE PIPELINE OF PROJECTS 2009-13: BY PHASE
49.3
Phase II (Conceptual)
Only projects with a positive
85.8
NPV at cost of capital will be 49.2% Phase III (Design)
11.7
approved
6.7%
24.9 Phase IV (Approved)
Acquisition
14.3%
22
INCREASING LOCAL CONTENT STRENGTHENS PETROBRAS BUSINESS IN
THE LONG RUN
Local
content
More equipment
availability
Expanded
supply capacity
Increased
flexibility
New suppliers
Lower prices
23
OPTIMIZING COSTS
Planning
• More details Æ less risk Planning
Optimizing Costs
• Simplification
• Standardization (i.e. 8 identical Pre-salt
FPSOs) Oversight
• Carefully considering industry-standards
Oversight Culture
• Equipment purchases Æ Smaller
quantities allows participation of mid-
sized companies
• Closer oversight
Culture
• Reducing redundancies
24
A COMMITMENT TO OUR WORLD-CLASS WORKFORCE
2,822
PhD: 232 Post-grad: 845 Employees w ith an undergraduate
degree, but lacking previous experience, 2 ,46 8
Master: 1,098 University: 23,084 attend Petrobras University for up to 1
year before starting work 2,101
74,240
68,931
62,266
53,904
52,037
48,798
46,723 1,213
989 1 ,04 3
774
25
CONSISTENTLY DELIVERING RESERVES GROWTH…
26
AND PURSUING NEW PROJECTS WHILE MAXIMIZING
PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING ASSETS
5,729
223
409
7.5% p.y.
1.177
3,655
5.6% p.y.
131
2,757 210
2,400 8.8% p.y. 634
2,223 2,305 2,308 103
2,042 2,027 100 142
1,812 96 101 109
1,637 124 463
23 85 94
163 142 126 321
24 35 161 168 277 273 3.920
44 274
252 251 265
232
2.680
1.778 1.792 1.855 2.050
1.500 1.540 1.493 1.684
1.335
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2020
Oil production ‐ Brazi l Ga s producti on ‐ Bra zil Oil Product ‐ Internationa l Ga s Product ‐ Inte rna ti onal
27
AT A VERY COMPETITIVE COST.
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Marathon
LUKOIL
EnCana
OMV
Murphy
BG
Anadarko
TOTAL
BP
Apache
Petrobras
Hess
Petro‐Canada
Eni
ExxonMobil
Devon
Nexen
StatoilHydro
Chevron
Talisman
Woodside
Noble
Can Natl Res
Pioneer
Occidental
Shell
BHP Billiton
ConocoPhillips
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
PFC Energy / Note: (Unproved & Proved Property Acquisition + Exploration & Development Expenditure)/(Revisions + Improved
Recovery + Extensions & Discoveries + Purchases); 3-year time frame 28
EXPLORATION &
PRODUCTION
EFFECTIVE STRATEGY 2009-2013
Apply innovative
Increase production in
deepwater expertise in
Brazil and abroad,
new high-potential
optimizing the use of
frontier provinces in
existing infrastructure
Brazil and abroad
30
FOCUSED & DISCIPLINED INVESTMENT
12% 13%
Exploration
Development
International
58%
31
TO DELIVER RETURNS ON PAR WITH THE MAJORS
E&P REVENUES: US$ / BOE (2007) E&P CASH FLOW: US$ / BOE (2007)
$60.00 $25.00
$40.00
$15.00
$30.00
$10.00
$20.00
$5.00
$10.00
$0.00 $0.00
Petrobras Peer average* Petrobras Peer average*
CAGR (2004-2008) - %
7,75
5, 33
4,40 4,38
2,48
1,36
-1,02 -1, 79 -2, 57 -3,71 -3, 78
Chevron
Total
PetroChina
Repsol YPF
ExxonMobil
RD Shell
Lukoil
ConocoPhillips
Pet robras
BP
ENI
Petrobras Oil and Gas Production (000 boe/d)
2,400
2,298 2,301
2,217
4.4% CAGR
2,020
5,729
223
409
7.5% p.y.
1.177
3,655
5.6% p.y.
131
2,757 210
2,400 8.8% p.y. 634
2,223 2,305 2,308 103
2,042 2,027 100 142
1,812 96 101 109
1,637 124 463
23 85 94
163 142 126 321
24 35 161 168 277 273 3.920
44 274
252 251 265
232
2.680
1.778 1.792 1.855 2.050
1.500 1.540 1.493 1.684
1.335
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2020
Oil production ‐ Brazi l Ga s producti on ‐ Bra zil Oil Product ‐ Internationa l Ga s Product ‐ Inte rna ti onal
34
ESTIMATED OIL PRODUCTION IN BRAZIL
Out of the 824 kb/d in The biggest contribution in the The PN 2008-2012 Brazil oil
domestic production growth domestic production growth of target for 2015 was 2,812 k
through 2013, 566 kb/d will 1,240 kb/d between 2013 and b/d. The new target
come from fields where we 2020 will come from pre salt represents an increase of
have already declared production 19% (+528 kb/d)
commerciality
3,920
3,340
2,680
1,855 2,050
35
ROBUST PROJECT PIPELINE - 2009
In addition to the five new projects starting-up in 2009, P-52 and P-54, which
will reach peak production this year, and P-53, which started operation in
December 2008, will contribute to production increases
2,050 73
9
10.5% 43.1%
Million m3/day
JABUTI
thousand b/d
MANATI
9
expansion
EWT Tupi
LAGOSTA
1,855
P51
MARLIM SUL 9 51
CANAPU
P53 FRADE
MARLI M LESTE CAMARUPIM
P ARQUE D AS
SIRI 1 CONCHAS
URUCU
36
AND 2010-2013
MANATI
expansion
2.68
2.51 2.58 Oil
2.43
P-62
2.25 RONCADOR
2.05 P55
RONCADOR
P-57
JUBARTE BALEIA AZUL
P-61
JABUTI PAPA-TERRA
TUPI P-56
EWT Tupi P-63
Pilot MARLIM SUL
PAPA-TERRA
P-51 CACHALOTE.
MARLI M SUL BALEIA FRANCA, GUARÁ 1 or IARA 1
BALEIA ANÃ
FRADE
TUPI 1
P ARQUE D AS Pilot Expansion
CONCHAS
37
MAJOR PROJECT OVERVIEW 2009-2013
Espírito
Santo Basin
Parque das
Baleias/
Espírito Santo
Pre-salt
Traditional
Campos Basin
Pre-Salt Cluster
180 th b/d 2009
2010
100 th b/d 2011
2012
< 100 th b/d 2013
38
SIGNIFICANT RESOURCE BASE YET TO BE DEVELOPED
bn boe
Higher
estimates
+4.5
13.920 14.093 Lower
estimates
747 920 9.5
IMPLEMENT INTEGRATED
PROGRAMS TO IMPROVE OIL
RECOVERY, THAT:
40
ALBACORA
P-25 P-31
41
CARMÓPOLIS
SERGIPE
Carmópolis field: started-up production in 1963 and today
is one of two examples of the most successful implementation
of an solution to enhance productivity.
Direct Effects:
• Increased production;
• Reduced well costs;
• Improved the recovery factor: from 27% to 30% (in 2009);
• New expected peak production: 25.4 mmb/d (in 1990) to
31.6 mmb/d (in 2009);
• Extended the useful life of the field an additional 18 years:
from 2007 to 2025.
42
CARMÓPOLIS
09
20
st
a
rec
Fo
43
DIVERSIFIED AND FLEXIBLE PORTFOLIO
ESPÍRITO SANTO
150 MM boe
Golfinho OPTIMIZING EXISTING
SYSTEMS IN THE
GOLFINHO FIELD:
VITÓRIA
Moving FPSO Capixaba (100 Mb/d)
from Golfinho to Parque das Baleias in
anticipation of the development of the
Espirito Santo pre-salt ;
44
USING CONTRACTS AND LEASES TO SECURE NEEDED DRILLING ASSETS
Petrobras XVI
Ocean Yorktown
Petrobras XVII
Pride Mexico
Al ask an Star
Borgny Dolphin Petrobras XIV
0-999m Atlantic Star
Ocean Concord
Ocean Wittington
Falcon-100
P. South Atlantic
Delba V
Sedco 707 Gold Star
Noble Dave Pantanal Delba VI
Dw. Navigator Scorpion
Beard Norbe VI Delba IV
N. Roger Eason Delba VII
Sevan Driller Delba III Schain TBN1 + 28 new units to
≥ 2000m O. Clipper West Taurus West Orion Sevan Brasil
Delba VIII
be leased
Norbe IX
N. Paul Wolf West Eminence Petrorig II DS Carolina Schahin TBN2
SSV Victoria Lone Start Norbe VIII
Am azonia Etesco 8
29 RIGS CONTRACTED PLUS 28 TO BE LEASED UP TO 2017, MAKING A TOTAL OF 57 NEW DRILLING RIGS
45
ESTABLISHED EXPLORATION PORTFOLIO AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF
DEVELOPMENT
Margem Equatorial
Brazil
Ceara & Potiguar Exploration:
2009-13
Solimões
US$ 13.8 bn
Potiguar Exploratory
SEAL& REC & TUC
Area: 157.59
km²
Bahia Sul 278
São Francisco exploratory
blocks
Espírito Santo
30 appraisal
Campos plans
303 production
Petrobras Santos
Others concessions
Pelotas
46
EXPLORING TO LEVERAGE EXCITING FRONTIER PLAYS IN OUR OWN BACKYARD
Exploration
Capex
US$ mm Success Rate
70%
2.750
2.500 60%
2.250
50%
2.000
1.750
40%
1.500
1.250 30%
1.000
20%
750
500
10%
250
0 0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009‐2013
47
…AND APPLYING UNIQUE EXPERTISE TO SELECTED INTERNATIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES
TURKEY
PORTUGAL PAKISTAN
LIBYA
US GoM
CUBA IRAN
MEXICO SENEGAL
VENEZUELA
INDIA
COLOMBIA NIGERIA
EQUADOR
TANZANIA
BRAZIL
PERU
ANGOLA
BOLIVIA MOZAMBIQUE
ARGENTINA Core
Focus
New Venture
48
PRE-SALT PROVINCE
PARANÁ
Tested wells
Campos HC
Exploratory Blocks
Pre-Salt reservoirs
49
PRE-SALT OVERVIEW
50
SANTOS BASIN PRE-SALT CLUSTER
50 km Rio de Janeiro
Tupi
5-8 bn boe in Tupi and 3-4 bn boe
in Iara
Carioca
Bem-te-v i
Guara
Three production systems by 2014:
BM-S-21
BR 80% BM- S-24 Tupi, Iara and Guara
Azul ão BR 80%
Caramba
BM- S-9
BR 45%
BM- S-22
BR 20%
51
TUPI
50 km Rio de Janeiro
Extended well test (EWT)
• Tupi-Sul re-entry underway
• Vessel conversion completed
• First production Q2 2009
• Up to 14,000 b/d
52
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY (example: TUPI)
..... ..... t
2007 2009 2010 2012 2017
EWT (Mar/2009), Tupi Pilot and Implementation of “X” production units Implementation of “Y”
Focus
appraisal wells (Replicant FPSOs) production units
53
IARA
54
GUARÁ
50 km Rio de
Janeiro High quality reservoir
Outline of forward plans:
Guar
á
55
ESPÍRITO SANTO PRE-SALT
to UTG Cacimbas
Infrastructure in-place
an
Linhares
Rio Doc e
P-34 at Jubarte field, first pre-salt production:
oS
Cangoá
MG Peroá
Aracruz
24” – 66 km
25 MM m 3/d
FPSO Seillean started in dec/08 as pilot system of
Cachalote (CHT) field
Es
Presidente
Marataizes
Kennedy
ARG
CHT Baleia Franca
JUB OST
N AU
RJ Baleia Azul AB A
CXR
PRB
Catuá
56
PRE-SALT OIL PRODUCTION
1,815
1,336 632
4 63
219 582
1 60 1,18 3
62 8 73
1 57 4 22
Pre‐Salt Petrobras Pre‐salt Partners
57
DOWNSTREAM
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SYSTEM TO CAPTURE SYNERGIES WITHIN THE
VALUE CHAIN
Existing Pipelines
Refineries
Petrobras Marine Terminal
Other Companies In Land Terminal
59
INVESTING IN REFINING INFRASTRUCTURE
As Petrobras continues to grow its upstream With limited investment over the last 20 years,
business, the need for a compatible refining Petrobras will increase capacity to meet the needs of
infrastructure becomes more critical a growing domestic market
60
IMPROVING THE TRADE BALANCE
234
246 262 197
148
260 94 118
439 390
335 353 352 370 373
263
61
FOCUSED STRATEGY TO ADD VALUE TO DOMESTIC CRUDE
62
INVESTING TO REALIZE THESE GOALS
Downstream Investments
US$ 47.8 billion
12%
Refining 7%
Ship Transport
Petrochemicals 73%
• Adding values to domestic crude and producing diesel and gasoline in-line with
international standards
63
ADDRESSING THE NEED TO INCREASE THROUGHPUT CAPACITY AND
COMPLEXITY...
Average Refinery Throughput Capacity (000 b/d)
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Return on Capital Employed
ROCE
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
‐5%
‐10%
‐15%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Integrated Upstream Players Refi ners
Integrated Companies: BP, Shell, Exxon, Conoco, Chevron, Total, ENI, Luke Oil and Repsol
Upstream Players: Apache, Anadarko, Devon, EnCana, Nexen and Talisman
Refiners: Valero, Reliance Industries, PKN Orlen, Sunoco and Tesoro
30
25 US Gasoline
Downturn
20
15
10
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Margin: WTI Cracking Margin: Maya Coking
Gross Refining Margins = Margin WTI Cracking = USGC Margin Maya Coking = USGC
Products prices minus crude Margin of using WTI with Margin of using Maya with
oil cracking yields coking yields
Source: Platts 66
AND CAPTURING THE LIGHT/HEAVY DIFFERENTIAL
US$/bbl
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
WTI - Maya Diesel & Gasoline – Fuel Oil
Spread Crude Oil Light-Heavy = WTI Spread Oil Products Light-Heavy = (Unleaded
– Maya USG + N2 Diesel USG)/2 – Fuel Oil 3% USG
Source: Platts 67
LESSENING IMPORTED CRUDE REQUIREMENTS FOR REFINING INPUTS
95%
68
AND UPGRADING TO OPTIMIZE PERFORMANCE AND ENSURE SUSTAINABILITY
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Diesel
S-500
RECAP REPAR
Diesel & Gasoline
Gasoline Diesel
S-50
REDUC REPLAN
Gasoline Gasoline Diesel
S-10
REFAP
Gasoline
REVAP RECAP RLAM REFAP REPLAN
REFAP Gasoline Diesel & Diesel Diesel Diesel
Gasoline Gasoline
REGAP RPBC
RLAM Diesel Diesel
Gasoline
REGAP
RPBC Rev amp
Gasoline HDT
69
FAST GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND…
(000 b/d)
2,876
3.3% p.y.
400
2,257 150
Others
1,906 1,945 3.0% p.y. 274 FO
112 Diesel
182 202
119 107 1224 QAV
901 Naphta
738 783 Gasoline
179 LPG
118
84 89 246
250 218 255
367 419
326 332
208 214 230 257
70
WILL BE MET BY INVESTMENTS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE REFINING
CAPACITY
3500 Premium I
(600 th bpd)
and
Premium II
(300 th bpd) 3,012
3000 1st Fase:
2013
2nd Fase:
2015
2500
Clara 2,270
UPB
Camarão 150 tho. bpd
2010 Dez/2012
2000
1,779 1,791
RNE
REVAP 230 tho.
10 tho.bpd bpd
1500 2010 2011
REPLAN REPAR
Revamp Revamp
1000 33 tho. bpd 25 tho. bpd
2010 2011
500
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020
71
DOMESTIC REFINING CAPACITY ADDITIONS
400
Thousand b/d
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2009 - 2010 2010 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2013
72
MAIN DRIVERS FOR THE NEW REFINERIES
Logistic potential
Shared infrastructure
73
ADDRESSING GROWING DOMESTIC DEMAND FOR PETROCHEMICALS
10,000 671
PS
1,663
8,000 PVC
526 990
1,293
6,000 412
PET
784 3,212
991
4,000 289 587 2,353 PP
310 699
728 436 1,651
380 PE
2,000 800 1,070
3,666
2,833
1,607 1,625 2,202
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
74
BY INTEGRATING THE DOWNSTREAM SUPPLY CHAIN THROUGH
TARGETED INVESTMENTS
QUATTOR BRASKEM
PQU COPESUL
PRODUCTION PRODUCTION
1.020 kta ethene QUATTOR 2.480 kta ethene 1.180
320kta propene kta propene 510 kta IQ
1.040 kta PE PVC
875 kta PP PU 1.975 kta PE IPQ
1.090 kta PP
RIOPOL
UDQ
75
COMPERJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE PETROBRAS VALUE CHAIN
Comperj will:
Capture synergies from existing regional
Expand the domestic petrochemical market infrastructure
Utilize Marlim crude as feedstock Improve the balance within the commercial
value chain for oil, oil products and
petrochemicals
BASICS DOWNSTREAM
Production
Products
(kta)
Production
Diesel 535 Products
(kta)
Fuels Naphtha 284
Polypropylene 850
Coke 700 Polyethylene 800
Ethylene 1,300 Styrene 500
Propylene 881 Ethylene glycol 600
Petroche micals Benzene 608 PT A 500
Butadiene 157 PET 600
p-Xylene 700
Sulphur 45
76
GAS & ENERGY
FOCUSED STRATEGY
Transport and
Distribution
Power generation,
purchase and sales
78
INTEGRATED GAS AND POWER SYSTEM
Hydro-power
provides base
load electricity
where natural
conditions allow.
Thermal plants
minimize deficit Thermal Plants Power Energy
risk. Consumers
Hydro-power
Plants Distribution
Transmission
ANEEL
Exchanges
RAIN: ACCUMULATES ENERGY – SAVES WATER
79
INCREASING GAS DEMAND
Non-thermal Demand
million m3/d @ 9,400 k cal/m3
6% p.a. expected average growth: 2009-13
60
Industrial
Price parity with fuel
50
oil, accepted by the 50 49
Natural Gas to Non-Thermal Market
market 45
41
Automotive 40 38
37
Flex fuel fleet, more 36 Domestic Gas:
34
expensive kits, contracted with natural
31
higher NG prices gas distributors until
30 28 2012
Commercial
25
Following services 20
GDP projection 20 17 Realized Demand Contracted Demand Bolivian Gas:
14
Residential contracted with natural
Following urban gas distributors until
population growth
10 2020
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Accrued Proj. Petrobras
80
INCREASING DEMAND FOR GAS-FIRED GENERATION
100
90
5% growth p.a.
80 2009-2013
Energy Supply (GW Avg)
70
60
50
87 91
40 80 84
73 77
67 70
30 61 64
55 58
20
10
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
81
BALANCING SUPPLY & DEMAND
140 135
Electricity Generation
123
120
112
LNG 49
100 96 44
million m3/d @ 9,400 k cal/m3
41
Bolivia
80 36
Other Uses
68
58 45
60 19 39
14 34
27
40 19
17 Domestic
Industrial
Supply
20 36 40 41
30 33
27
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
82
PHASED INVESTMENT PLAN
Phase I
2009-13
Business Plan
200 0
200 1
200 2
200 3
200 4
200 5
200 6
200 7
200 8
200 9
201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
Phase I (2003–2010): Diversify Supply and Integrate Network
Rationale:
• Meet domestic needs of power generation and non-thermal market
• Diversify supply: Bolivia and LNG;
• Increase power generation capacity
Result:
PLANGAS, network integration, regasification terminal construction
83
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK
(A) EXPAND PIPELINE SYSTEM
84
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK
(B) ADD FLEXIBILITY WITH LNG
PECÉM TERMINAL
Capacity:
7 MM m3/d
Start-up:
Jan/09
Objective :
Flexible gas
supply for
thermal
generation in
the Northe ast
85
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK
(B) ADD FLEXIBILITY WITH LNG
GUANABARA BAY
Capacity:
Terminal: 20 mm
m3/d
Regasification
Vessel: 14 mm
m3/d
C&A completion:
Jan/09
Objective :
Flexible gas
supply for
thermal
generation in the
Southeast
86
PHASE I: DIVERSIFY SUPPLY & INTEGRATE NETWORK
(C) INCREASE POWER GENERATION CAPACITY
2008: 24 Plants: 5,559 MW
Tambaqui 2010: 43 Plants: 7,135 MW Carangola
89 MW 15 MW
Termoceará 220 MW
Jaraqui Potiguar III 66 MW BI-FUEL
89 MW
Potiguar 52 MW
Termocabo 48 MW
Jesus S. Pereira 340 MW (leased)
Manauara
85 MW
SU AP E II 350 MW Petrolina 128 MW
Ar eia 11,4 MW (leased)
Juiz de Fora Ar embepe 1 48 MW
84 MW Bahia
Água Limpa 14 MW Muricy I31 MW
148 MW
Barbosa Lima Sobrinho 386 MW Brentech 140 MW
Celso Furtado
BI-FUEL
Britarumã 60 MW 185 MW
Bonfante
Irara 30 MW 19 MW
Luís Carlos Prestes Rômulo Almeida
252 MW Jataí 30 MW São Pedro 138 MW
30 MW
Retiro Velho 18 MW
Fumaça Funil
Fernando Gasparian 44,5 MW 22.5 MW
370 MW Euzébio Rocha 208 MW
São Simão Aurel. Chaves
27 MW 226 MW
Gover. Leonel Brizola
1,043 MW Calheiros 19 MW
São Joaquim
Pira 19 MW Monte Serrat 25 MW 21 MW
Mário Lago
922 MW BANAÇO 60 MW Santa Fé
30 MW
NG 4.900 MW
Sepé Tiaraju 160 MW OIL 472 MW Araucária
BI-FUEL 484 MW
PCH 187 MW
87
PHASE II: INCREASE SUPPLY FLEXIBILITY & NETWORK INTEGRATION
(A) TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
Increase (net) natural gas flow between the Southeast and Northeast
Connect new natural gas supplies, including pre-salt and third and fourth
LNG terminals
88
PHASE II: INCREASE SUPPLY FLEXIBILITY & NETWORK INTEGRATION
(B) ENERGY INVESTMENTS
LNG supplier
Power generator
89
GAS & ENERGY INVESTMENT PLAN 2009-2013
G&E Investments
US$ 10.6 billion
1,477
926
4,528
3,692
US$ million
Natural Gas
US$ 8.2 billion
Projects in Portfolio New Investments Proposed
Energy
Projects in Portfolio New Investments Proposed
US$ 2.4 billion
90
FINANCE
CREATING SHAREHOLDER VALUE AND IMPRESSIVE RETURNS ON CAPITAL
50%
40% PBR
30%
TSR (Average 06‐08)
HES
20% OXY
ENI
10% BG
MRO
0% REP STO
10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30%
‐10%
145%
MIN
120%
MAX
95% PBR
70%
45%
20%
‐5%
‐30%
‐55%
‐80%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US$ mm
29%
20.000 50%
18.000 32% 45%
32%
16.000
40%
14.000 33%
12.000 31% 35%
10.000 30%
8.000 25%
6.000
20%
4.000
2.000 15%
‐ 10%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Brazilian Corporate Law requir es a minimum annual distributions equal to 25% of net income
Note: Net Income and Dividends based on provisioned dividends and US GAAP. 93
GROWING CASH FLOW DRIVES CAPEX…
SOURCES
3 0 ,0 0 0
2 5,0 0 0
2 0 ,0 0 0
15,0 0 0
10 ,0 0 0
5,0 0 0
OC F Ne t De bt
USES
3 0 .0 0 0
2 5.0 0 0
2 0 .0 0 0
15.0 0 0
10 .0 0 0
5.0 0 0
0
- 5.0 0 0 20 04 200 5 20 06 2 007 2 008 *
94
...ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING CREDIT RATIOS AND INCREASED
DEBT CAPACITY
MAX
50%
MIN
PBR
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
* Source: Company reports (REP, HES, ENI, BG, OXY, MRO, STL) 95
HISTORICALLY, CONSERVATIVE PLANNING HAS LED TO A BALANCE BETWEEN
OCF AND CAPEX; NEW PLAN WILL FOLLOW SIMILAR APPROACH
Historical Projected
US$ 88.5 bn (2003 – 2008) US$ 148.6 bn (2009 – 2013)
Net Debt
Net Debt
Capex
OCF OCF
(US$ 174 bn)
(after dividends) Capex (after dividends)
(US$ 92,3 bn)
96
2009-2013 ASSUMPTIONS AND CAPEX ARE DESIGNED TO MAINTAIN
TARGETED FINANCIAL RATIOS
97
2009-2013 PLAN: BRENT PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
US$/bbl
80
74
75
72
70 68
65
61 60
58 60
60
55
50
45 45 45 45 45
45
40
40 37
35
30
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
98
LONG-TERM PRICING ASSUMPTIONS AT OR BELOW MARKET FORECASTS.
NEAR-TERM FUNDING REQUIREMENTS ASSUME PRICES WELL BELOW THE
FORWARD CURVE.
120
100
80
U S $ b b l
60
40
20
0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Brent ‐ Forwa rd Curve (01/23/09) PIRA (Jan 09) Petrobras (Ba se Ca se) Petrobra s (Funding 09‐10) WoodMackenzi e (Dec 08)
Source: Bloomberg/PIRA/Mackenzie 99
THE PLAN DOES NOT ASSUME CAPITAL COSTS WILL DECLINE, ALTHOUGH
LOWER OIL PRICES SHOULD PRODUCE DOW NWARD PRESSURE ON COSTS
500
400
300
(2000=100)
18%
Index
200
11%
100
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
4Q08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
CCI Downstream CCI Upstream WTI
2009 2010*
OCF including amortization and after dividends 10.5 16.0
Capex 28.6 35.0
Funding Needs (18.1) (18.9)
Brent (US$ / bbl) 37 40
* Capex for 2010 is based on the annual average of the Plan´s total spending. 101
FUNDING FOR 2009 COMPLETED, WITH REMAINING NEEDS FOR 2010 TO BE
MET VIA TRADITIONAL SOURCES AND COST REDUCTIONS
2009 2010
Needs
Needs
• US$ 18.10 bn
• US$ 18.9 bn
Sources
Sources
• BNDES: US$ 12.5 bn • BNDES: US$ 10.0 bn
• Capital Market: US$ 6.5 bn (bridge loan) • Remainder to be financed : US$ 8.9 bn
*US$ 2.75 bn (Global Notes due 2019, in 2 tranches: • 15% reduction in capex would reduce
1.5 bn, yield 8.125% + 1.25 bn, yield 6.875%)
remaining financial needs to less than
• US Exim : US$ 2 bn US$ 4 bn
• CDB: US$ 10 bn
102
For more information:
Investor Relations
www.petrobras.com.br/ri
+55 21 3224-1510
petroinvest@petrobras.com.br