Homework 2

The following homework set has two types of problems. Those labeled SS are self-study
problems that do not need to be turned in. However, there are problems that I suggest you complete
to ensure that you understand all the material in the class. The problems not labeled SS should be
submitted for a grade. In general, the SS problems are easier than the graded problems, so they
can be used to practice and build expertise before doing the graded problems.
SS-1. If A B, express the following probabilities as simply as possible:
(a) P(A|B) Answer: P(A)/P(B)
(b) P(A|B) Answer: 0
(c) P(B|A) Answer: 1
(d) P(B|A) Answer: P(B A)/P(A) or [P(B) P(A)]/[1 P(A)]
1. Repeat problem 4 from Homework 1, but use conditional probability.
2. Repeat problem 5 from Homework 1, but use conditional probability.
3. A computer company ships their computers in shipping containers that each contain a total of
eight computers. Each container is first filled with five laptops. Then each of the remaining
spaces in the container is filled with either a laptop or a desktop computer, selected at
random. The probability that a laptop is selected is 0.6. The choices are independent.
Part I. A store opens one of the shipping containers.
(a) If the store removes a computer at random from the shipping container, what is the
probability that it is a laptop?
(b) If the store removes another computer from the shipping container, what is the probability
that it is a laptop? (The type of the first computer withdrawn is not known.)
(c) What is the probability that the first two computers removed from the shipping container
are both laptops?
(d) A shopper in the store finds that other shoppers have bought the first seven computers
removed from the shipping container. If the shopper will only buy a laptop, what is the
probability that he will buy the last computer in the container?
Part II. Answer the following questions.
(d) A customer who is in a hurry wants a desktop computer. He is only willing to wait while
the store checks two computers. If the store has two different shipping containers, is
it better for the store to check two computers from the same storage container or two
computers from two different storage container.
(f) A patient customer wants a desktop computer. If the store consecutively checks one
computer from different shipping containers, what is the probability that the store will
need to check three or more containers to find a desktop?

4. A and B are in a duel. The rules of the duel are that they are to pick up their guns and
shoot one shot at each other simultaneously. If one or both are hit, then the duel is over.
If both shots miss, then they repeat the process. Suppose that the results of the shots are
independent and that each shot of A will hit B with probability pA and each shot of B will hit
A with probability pB . What is
(a) the probability that at the end of the duel, A is not hit;
(b) the probability that at the end of the duel, both duelists are hit;
(c) the probability that the duel ends after the nth round of shots;
(d) the conditional probability that the duel ends after the nth round of shots given that A
is not hit (when the duel ends);
(e) the conditional probability that the duel ends after the nth round of shots given that both
duelists are hit (when the duel ends)?
SS-2. An ectopic pregnancy is twice as likely to develop when the pregnant woman is a smoker as
it is when she is a nonsmoker. If 32 percent of women of childbearing age are smokers, what
percentage of women having ectopic pregnancies are smokers? (Answer: 0.4848)
5. Problem 61 from the 2nd ed. of the Leon-Garcia text:
A computer manufacturer uses chips from three sources. Chips from sources A, B, and C
are defective with probabilities 0.001, 0.005, and 0.01, respectively. If a randomly selected
chip is found to be defective, what is the probability that the manufacturer was A; that the
manufacturer was C. My clarification: Assume that the computer manufacturer uses equal
numbers of chips from each source.