No China-Taiwan War

China and Taiwan are reaching consensus on key issues now with new cooperation
Taipei Times, Staff writer, February 23, 2014, Taiwan, China reach consensus on nine deals, Accessed 2/23/2014,
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/02/23/2003584158

Taiwan and China on Friday reached a consensus on proposals to improve the implementation of nine
of 19 agreements they have signed to date. The consensus came after a two-day meeting in Chinas
Changsha between the intermediary bodies handling negotiations for the two countries in the absence of
official ties the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Beijing-based Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS). The
Changsha meeting was held to review the implementation and impact of the 19 cross-strait pacts signed since 2008 when President Ma Yingjeou () set in motion a more conciliatory approach toward China. During the review, consensus

was reached on improving

the implementation of accords covering cooperation in the fields of finance, air transportation, sea
transportation, healthcare, crime fighting, food safety, investment protection, fishing crews and
agricultural quarantines.

Even if just symbolic, recent Sino-Taiwan agreements highlight the irreversible trend
toward political and economic integration
Johnathan Sullivan, Jonathan Sullivan is associate professor and deputy director of the China Policy Institute, University of Nottingham,
February 17, 2014, Taiwan and China Edge Ever Closer, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/18/opinion/taiwan-and-chinaedge-ever-closer.html, Accessed 2/22/2014

Government officials from China and Taiwan met last week for the first time in an official capacity in
more than six decades. The talks were uneventful producing modest agreements to establish communication channels and
other practical arrangements but they were symbolic of the strengthening of cross-Strait ties under President Ma Yingjeou of Taiwan. Since being elected in 2008, Mr. Ma has adopted a conciliatory approach toward China and
pushed through a number of cooperative policies, including a free-trade agreement. While most
Taiwanese strongly favor maintaining Taiwans functional independence, Mr. Ma has started an
irreversible trend toward closer ties and political negotiation with Beijing . Economic interaction is the force that
drives this trend, but its more comprehensive than one based on economics alone.

China wont invade Taiwan for two reasons: international backlash and success
uncertainty
Zachary Keck, Staff Writer, December 24, 2013, Why China Won't Attack Taiwan, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/whychina-wont-attack-taiwan/, Accessed 1/20/2014

Even assuming Chinas military capabilities are great enough to prevent the U.S. from intervening,
there are two forces that would likely be sufficient to deter China from invading Taiwan. The first and
least important is the dramatic impact this would have on how countries in the region and around the world would
view such a move. Globally, China seizing Taiwan would result in it being permanently viewed as a
malicious nation. Regionally, Chinas invasion of Taiwan would diminish any lingering debate over how Beijing will use its growing power.
Every regional power would see its own fate in Taiwan. Although Beijing would try to reassure
countries by claiming that Taiwan was part of China already, and thus the operation was a domestic stability one, this
narrative would be convincing to none of Chinas neighbors. Consequently, Beijing would face an
environment in which each state was dedicated to cooperating with others to balance against Chinese
power. But the more important deterrent for China would be the uncertainty of success. To be sure, Chinas
military capabilities are growing to the point where it will soon be assured of its ability to quickly defeat Taiwans military forces. A little longer
down the road it will also likely be confident that it can prevent the U.S. from intervening in the conflict.

China wont invade short of independence. They know even a successful invasion
would spark secessionist movements
Zachary Keck, Staff Writer, December 24, 2013, Why China Won't Attack Taiwan, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/whychina-wont-attack-taiwan/, Accessed 1/20/2014
However, as recent U.S. military conflicts have adequately demonstrated, being

able to defeat another nations armed

forces and being able to pacify the country are two different things altogether. It is in this latter aim that Chinas
strategy is likely to falter. Taiwanese are adamantly opposed to being incorporated into a non-Democratic
China. These feelings would only harden in the aftermath of the invasion. Thus, even if it quickly
defeated Taiwans formal military forces, the PLA would continue to have to contend with the
remnants of resistance for years to come. Such a scenario would be deeply unsettling for leaders in
Beijing as this defiance would likely inspire similar resistance among various groups on the mainland ,
starting first and foremost with ethnic minorities in the western China. Should the PLA resort to harsh oppression to squash resistance in
Taiwan, this would deeply unsettle even Han Chinese on the mainland. In fact, the clear parallels with how Imperial Japan sought to pacify
Taiwan and China would be lost on no one in China and elsewhere. The

entire situation would be a nightmare for Chinese

leaders. Consequently, they are nearly certain to avoid provoking it by invading Taiwan. The only real
scenario in which they would invade Taiwan is if the island nation formally declared independence.
But if Taiwanese leaders have avoided doing so to date, they are unlikely to think the idea is very wise
as China goes stronger.

Reunification is inevitable. China is deploying a mass array of political and economic

tools that trump any attempt toward independence
Johnathan Sullivan, Jonathan Sullivan is associate professor and deputy director of the China Policy Institute, University of Nottingham,
February 17, 2014, Taiwan and China Edge Ever Closer, New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/18/opinion/taiwan-and-chinaedge-ever-closer.html, Accessed 2/22/2014

Aside from this economic interdependence, China imposes its power on Taiwan in many ways,
creating momentum that is difficult to withstand indefinitely. The area across the strait from Taiwan
is lined with Chinese missiles. Chinese influence and opposition restricts Taiwans participation in
international society, including signing other bilateral and regional economic agreements. China exerts influence on
hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese businesspeople residing in China, and has started to target Taiwanese politics,
allegedly contributing to election campaigns, mobilizing influential supporters and investing in
Taiwanese media. Against these formidable pressures, Taiwan has limited resources to call upon. Its most
potent weapon is its robust democracy. The moral support that Taiwan claims from the international community for its mode of governance is
an important constraint on China. Any leader in Taipei who attempts to preserve the status quo of functional independence can rightly say that
the government is merely following public opinion. The Taiwanese people desire the peace and prosperity that positive relations with China
could bring, yet they do not want to give up their sovereignty or democracy to achieve it. But Beijings

position is implacable, and

its power and influence is inescapable. As it ramps up the pressure on Taiwan in different ways, there
is an inevitable drift toward the unification that China craves.

Reunification Inevitable
Cross-straits conflict is in the end game toward reunification
Isaac Stone Fish, Staff Writer, February 12, 2014, An Offer They Can't Refuse, Foreign Policy, Accessed 2/22/2014,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/02/11/an_offer_they_cant_refuse
Many analysts

now see this as the endgame. "Cross-strait interdependence has been an irreversible
process, at least in economic, social and cultural terms," notes Titus C. Chen, an associate research fellow at the National
Chengchi University in Taipei. He adds, "The prospects of Taiwan can no longer be separated from those of
China." When asked about the chess analogy, June Teufel Dreyer, an expert on China's international relations at the University of Miami,
offered a different one instead. "There's a type of insect that a horde of ants will attack. The ants lay their eggs in the insect, and then eat it,"
Dreyer says. "That's what happening with Taiwan."

China and Taiwan are engaged in a historic reconciliation. Taipei is exchanging

independence for trade
Isaac Stone Fish, Staff Writer, February 12, 2014, An Offer They Can't Refuse, Foreign Policy, Accessed 2/22/2014,
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/02/11/an_offer_they_cant_refuse
In the game of chess, there's a concept called "forced mate." The term refers to one side maneuvering its pieces to guarantee victory in a set
number of moves, regardless of what the opponent does. On

Feb. 11, representatives of the Chinese and Taiwanese

government met in the mainland Chinese city of Nanjing. Expected to produce few, if any breakthroughs, the symbolism of the
event is still great: It is their first formal meeting in 65 years. Since the Nationalists fled to Taiwan at the end of the
Chinese civil war in 1949, Beijing has viewed the island as a renegade province and has made its "reunification with the motherland" a
paramount objective. Tensions have occasionally flared: As recently as the 1990s, China lobbed missiles into the strait between
the mainland and Taiwan, Taiwanese politicians threatened to declare independence, and the United States moved two aircraft carrier groups
into the region. Today,

however, the link between mainland China and the self-governing entity of 23
million people just 110 miles off its eastern coast is warmer than it's ever been, even as Taiwan
continues to insist on its rights as a self-governing body. So if China makes the right moves, and continues to successfully
and peacefully draw Taiwan into its orbit, can it create a "forced mate" situation? Beijing has been making Taipei an offer it
can't refuse: a readily accessible market of 1.3 billion people. In arguably its greatest foreign policy success over the
last decade, Beijing has been taking a patient and long-term approach toward the island, offering
sweetheart economic deals and a reduction of military rhetoric (though China still maintains an estimated 1,600
missiles aimed across the strait) while isolating Taiwan internationally. The 2008 election in Taiwan of Ma Ying-jeou, the head of the
Kuomintang Party, helped: Ma's party favors closer ties with China, unlike the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which ran Taiwan
for the previous eight years.