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2.

06 The Demographic Transition Model


The Accuracy of Scientific Models
Have you ever waited for an important weather update? Based
on the predictions, you can decide when to go hiking, make
preparations in case of a dangerous storm, or plan your outfit
for the next day. Now imagine a weather forecast that predicts
three to five inches of snow overnight. Doppler radar images
show the coming storm. After waiting eagerly for the snow to
begin, you wake up and there is no snow on the ground.
Temperatures did not drop as much as expected, and now
there is just a cold drizzle. Would you be disappointed or
relieved? Such incorrect predictions may be inconvenient, but
in other cases an incorrect prediction could be more costly.

Models for predicting hurricanes, like models for


predicting population change, can tell scientists a
lot, but also have limitations.

Hurricanes result in torrential rains, high winds, heavy floods, damage to property, and loss of life. Predicting
these powerful storms has improved greatly in the past 30 years, and today scientists can predict when and
where a powerful hurricane will hit, usually several days before it arrives. But scientists cannot always predict
the intensity of the storms, the size of the area affected, or the level of rainfall. Scientific models for predicting
major storms can give a good indication of what will happen, but there are still parts of storms that are
unpredictable because storms are, as one scientist has said, fickle beasts.
Whats the Point?

What causes populations to grow, decline, or remain steady?


How do geographers measure, track, and predict population changes?

Like meteorologists, geographers collect data, construct models, and make predictions on phenomena. As with
meteorology, unexpected changes in conditions can invalidate a geographers prediction. The demographic
transition model (DTM), which describes how populations change with changing economic conditions, is similar
to models for predicting storms. It can help measure or predict a countrys demographic changes, but it cannot
tell us everything. In the case of the DTM, there are so many different combinations of economic, social, and
political conditions that we need to be aware of the exceptions to the general patterns that the model
describes.
As you complete this lesson, think about the purpose and value of geographic models to understand
phenomena on Earth. You will read case studies of different nations to see where they fit on the DTM and why
in some cases, the DTM does not work. You will test your own predictive abilities as you analyze population
trends within a specific country.
Objectives
At the end of this lesson, you should be able to:

recognize that a country's population growth does not always fit a clear model
identify the exceptions to the demographic transition model

Historical Background

Demographer Warren Thompson based the demographic transition model on conditions he observed in 1929.
As a result, the model accurately describes nations that were furthest along in the four stages at the time.
Therefore, his model is more accurate for nations that had industrialized by 1929 than for nations that have
industrialized more recently.
England is a nation for which the demographic transition model is accurate. One reason for this is that England
has gone through all four stages that the model describes. Because long-term population data is available for
England, it is a good case study of how the model works.
Englands Four Stages of Demographic Transition
The four stages of English demographic transition are described below. Read each stage to learn more about
Englands population during the four stages.
Stage 1: 1000 to 1750
England had relatively low overall population growth, from about one million people to six million people.
During this time, most people earned their living by farming. There were fluctuations of periods of high and low
population growth, due to famine, disease, (the Black Plague) and an unstable food supply.
Stage 2: 1750 to 1880
Englands population rose greatly, from about six million people to about 26 million people. Birth rates increased
somewhat, and death rates dropped significantly. Better agricultural practices led to a more stable food supply,
and there were few plagues and famines at the time. England began industrializing during these years.
Stage 3: 1880 to 1949
England had a moderate population growth, from 26 million to about 49 million people. Death rates continued
to drop, due to higher standards of living and health improvements. Birth rates also dropped, from an average of
5.5 children per woman in 1871 to 2.4 children per woman in 1921. England became fully industrialized during
these years.
Stage 4: 1950 to the present
Both births and deaths have been low, and the two numbers have been closer to each other than in previous
eras. The overall population growth has slowed and remains fairly stable. Englands population today is a little
more than 51 million.
Flaws in the Model
England provides an example of a country that, for the most part, has followed the
demographic transition model. Other countries and societies do not always follow all
stages of the model as closely. One reason why the model does not accurately describe
all countries is because it focuses on economic reasons for population changes, but
does not take into account the cultural, religious, or political actions that affect
population. In addition, it does not focus on the role of migration, in or out of a
country, in changing a nations population.
Another limitation of the demographic transition model is that it assumes the changes
that occur in Stage two (high population growth due to a significant decrease in the

death rate) are a result of the nations changing economy. In some nations today, however, nations have not yet
become industrialized, but their death rates have dropped significantly due to improvements in health care. In a
world where wealthier nations can provide improved health care in developing nations, the death rate may drop
without the other changes that would have also caused the birth rate to fall.
Some economically developed countries now have higher death rates than birth rates, which is another
population change that is not reflected in the demographic transition model. These nations, where the
population is aging and birth rates are fairly low, are going through what some demographers consider a new
Stage five, which is creating negative population growth in these countries.
Thinking Geographically
Does the Model Apply?
In each of the following scenarios, decide whether the demographic transition model correctly describes the
situation or not. Select Check My Answers when you are done to check your answers.
1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Saudi Arabia, which is considered highly developed by the United Nations, has a fairly high total fertility
rate.
a. Yes
b. No
In a few years in 1940s, Sri Lankas death rate dropped by 43 percent, as a result of a campaign to
prevent malaria. Its economy did not change significantly at this time.
a. Yes
b. No
Sweden, which is more developed economically, has a low birth rate because a large number of women
are highly educated and postpone having children.
a. Yes
b. No
Irelands population reached its peak in the mid-1800s; because of famine and emigration, it remains
lower than that peak today.
a. Yes
b. No
Today, Nigeria has a high birth rate, a low death rate, and is considered less economically developed
compared to many other countries in the world.
a. Yes
b. No

Here are the answers! Select the Previous button at the bottom of the page to go back to the previous page.
1. Saudi Arabia, which is considered highly developed by the United Nations, has a fairly high total fertility
rate.
B. No
Feedback: While countries in stages 3 or 4 are often highly developed, Saudi Arabias high fertility rate
makes it an exception to the model.

2. In a few years in 1940s, Sri Lankas death rate dropped by 43 percent, as a result of a campaign to
prevent malaria. Its economy did not change significantly at this time.

B. No
Feedback: Countries in Stage 2 experience a large drop in the death rate as a result of an improved
economy. However, Sri Lankas economy remained unchanged, which is why the country is an exception
to the model.
3. Sweden, which is more developed economically, has a low birth rate because a large number of women
are highly educated and postpone having children.
A. Yes
Feedback: Sweden fits all the characteristics of a country in Stage 4. During this stage, birth rates often
decline because many women work and have children later, if at all.
4. Irelands population reached its peak in the mid-1800s; because of famine and emigration, it remains
lower than that peak today.
B. No
Feedback: Countries in Stage 4 have a significantly higher population than they had in the previous
stages of transition. Because Irelands population is well below its peak, the country does not fit the
model.
5. Today, Nigeria has a high birth rate, a low death rate, and is considered less economically developed
compared to many other countries in the world.
A. Yes
Feedback: Correct. Nigeria fits all the characteristics of a country in Stage 2. During this stage, the birth
rate is high, the death rate is low or lowering, and the country is less developed.
Quick Facts
Looking at some exceptions to the demographic transition model in greater depth can help you to see the
reasons why the model works better for some nations than for others. The three nations described below
generally correspond with stages 2, 3, and 4 of the model. In each case, the population data do not reflect what
Thompson believed it would look like given each nation's level of economic development.
Lesotho
Economy:
Mostly agricultural with a developing manufacturing
sector
Gross Domestic Product (GDP), purchasing power
parity: $3.273 billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita: $1,700
Population Statistics:
Total population: 1,919,552
Birth rate: 27.17 births/1,000 population
Total fertility rate: 3 children born per woman
Net migration rate: -8.68/1,000 population
Death rate: 15.71 deaths/1,000 population
Population growth rate: 0.277%
Life expectancy at birth: 50.67 years
Literacy: 84.3% total population

Saudi Arabia
Economy:
Oil-based economy; petroleum money funds majority
of government expenditures. Country seeks to diversify
its economy and start new industries.
Gross Domestic Product: (purchasing power parity)
$585.8 billion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita: $20,400
Population Statistics:
Total population: 29,207,277
Birth rate: 28.21/1,000 population
Total fertility rate: 3.77 children born per woman
Net migration rate: -8.26 migrants/1,000 population
Death rate: 15.71 deaths/1,000 population
Population growth rate: 1.75%
Life expectancy at birth: 76.51 years
Literacy: 78.8% total population
United States
Economy:
Industrialized since the 1800s, the United States has a
growing service sector in its economy
Gross Domestic Product: (purchasing power parity)
$14.26 trillion
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita: $46,400
Population Statistics:
Total population: 310,232,863
Birth rate: 13.83/1,000 population
Total fertility rate: 2.06 children born per woman
Net migration rate: 4.25 migrants/1,000 population
Death rate: 8.38 deaths/1,000 population
Population growth rate: 0.97%
Life expectancy at birth: 78.24 years
Literacy: 99% total population
Noting the Exceptions
Answer the following multiple-choice questions by matching the different stages of the demographic transition
model to the country. Select Check My Answers when you are done to check your answers.
1. Lesotho
a. Does not fit the demographic transition model
b. Stage 1
c. Stage 2
d. Stage 3
e. Stage 4

2. Saudi Arabia
a. Does not fit the demographic transition model
b. Stage 1
c. Stage 2
d. Stage 3
e. Stage 4
3. United States
a. Does not fit the demographic transition model
b. Stage 1
c. Stage 2
d. Stage 3
e. Stage 4
Here are the answers! Select the Previous button at the bottom of the page to go back to the previous page.
1. Lesotho
A. Does not fit the demographic transition model
Feedback: According to the DTM, Lesotho should be at Stage 2. Stage 2 nations experience increasing
birth rates and declining death rates. However, Lesotho does not have low death rates. Its high mortality
rate limits population growth. Lesotho has the third-highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the world,
causing its unusually high death rates.
2. Saudi Arabia
C. Stage 2
Feedback: Given its growing economy, the DTM would have predicted that Saudi Arabia would be at
Stage 3. Stage 3 nations have growing economies, declining birth and death rates, and overall moderate
population growth. At Saudi Arabias current population growth rate of 1.75 percent, its population will
double by 2050. Cultural values that favor large families and limited opportunities for women play a part
in keeping fertility and population growth rates high. Saudi Arabia may be categorized as Stage 2 on the
DTM; however, it does not fit all stage 2 criteria.
3. United States
E. Stage 4
Feedback: According to the model, the United States has reached Stage 4. At this stage, birth and death
rates decrease and the population growth stabilizes. The United States experienced a significant
population increase in the post-World War II years (19461964). Economic, social, and political
conditions encouraged war veterans and other members of society to marry and have children. The
resulting baby boom was not typical of a Stage 4 nation. The U.S. population growth of 0.97 percent
remains higher than many other industrialized countries, such as France, at 0.525 percent; Germany, at 0.061 percent; and Japan, at -0.242 percent.
A New Stage?
As mentioned earlier, another trend that the demographic transition model does not account for is occurring in
several nations in Europe and also in Japan. About 20 percent of Europes population is over 60 years old. By
2030, this percentage is expected to increase to 36 percent. In Japan and these European countries, the death
rate is higher than the birth rate, which has created a negative growth rate. Some demographers see this trend
as a new Stage 5 in the demographic transition model.

One nation that is currently at this stage is Russia, which has a fairly low birth rate, of 11.1 births per thousand,
and an unusually high (for Europe) death rate, of 16.06 deaths per thousand. The combination of these numbers
means that Russias population is declining by 0.467 percent per year. Other European nations, including many
that were in the former Soviet Union, such as the Ukraine, Belarus, and Armenia, also have negative rates of
growth.
Government leaders in some of these nations are trying to encourage families to have more children, but it is
not yet clear whether those efforts will succeed.
Stage 5 differs from Stage 4 in that demographers think that once the population begins dropping, it will be
difficult for it to increase. People worry that this negative population growth may cause labor shortages and
other economic hardships in the future.
Stage 5 of DTM
Read the information below to learn more about Stage 5 in Russia.
A low birth rate and high death rate have resulted in negative population growth in Russia.
The low birth rate is caused by increased opportunities for women, more people living in expensive
urban areas, and, in some cases, economic hardship and pessimism left over from living under
Communist rule.
Unhealthy lifestyles (high levels of smoking, drinking alcohol, sedentary lifestyle), lack of pollution
controls, poor medical care, and economic hardship have led to a high death rate.
Demographers fear that the negative population growth will be difficult to turn around and will cause
shortages of workers and other economic hardships in the future.
Here's the Point
Take a moment to think about the What's the Point? questions you read at the beginning of the lesson.
What causes populations to grow, decline, or remain steady?
How do geographers measure, track, and predict population changes?
How would you use the key terms and concepts from the lesson to answer these questions?
Recall that many conditions can affect population growth. A high birth rate coupled with a declining death rate
leads to population growth. Unexpected conditions such as an epidemic can interrupt population growth.
Increased educational opportunities and literacy for women may lead to a decline in the total fertility rate.
Cultural values remain an important factor in birth rates and fertility in nations such as Saudi Arabia.
You should identify the DTM as one tool geographers use to understand the relationship between economic
growth and demographics. Remember that while it is a useful tool for prediction, conditions do not always fit
the model. Several countries have not followed the stages as described by Thompson. As a result, modifications
to the DTM or new models may be needed to fit changing conditions.
02.06 Assignment Instructions
In this lesson you analyzed data and practiced your skills of prediction. Now it is time to take a position and
defend it. In the following activity, you will take a 60-year view of demographic changes in Country X. Based on
your analysis of the facts, you will play the role of a demographer and defend your prediction of Country Xs
stage of development.
1. Review the Grading Rubric for this lesson.

Performance Level

Excellent

What content did you learn?


40%

What is your level of understanding?


40%

How are you presenting your thoughts?


20%

40 points
Assignment provides complete, accurate answers for each
question.
40 points
Response demonstrates high level of understanding of the
demographic transition model. Response reflects excellent
ability to apply model to example.
Response is free from inaccurate information or errors in
reasoning.
Response provides strong support from the country profile.
20 points
Response is well organized and clearly explained with
sufficient supporting details. Defense of prediction is
persuasive

2. Open Population and Economic Data for Country X to read and analyze the countrys statistics.
Population and Economic Data for Country X
Population Data for Country X
Rank
Mid-1900s
1990s
2009
Birth rate
42.1 per thousand
21.16 per thousand
18.43 per thousand
(196065)
Total fertility rate
Over 5 (in 1940s)
2.44
2.21
Mortality rate
12.3 per thousand
8 per thousand
6.35 per thousand
(19601965)
Population
51,944,397 (1950)
157,079,573
198,739,269
2009 Economic Data for Country X
Gross domestic product (GDP)
GDP per capita
GDP real growth rate
Labor force by occupation
Exports

3.
4.

5.

6.

$1.499 trillion
$10,200 (2009 est.)
-0.2% (2009), 5.1% (2008)
Agriculture 20%, industry 14%, services 66%
transport equipment, iron ore, soybeans,
footwear, coffee, autos

Source: The World Factbook 2009. Washington, DC: Central Intelligence Agency, 2009.
Print a copy of the statistics to have as a reference.
Review the statistics for Country X and consider the following questions:
Based on the birth and mortality rates, estimate the rate of natural increase (NIR = Crude birth rate
crude death rate) for each time period.
Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and cite at
least two data points from this table to support your answer.
What conclusions can be drawn about the countrys current economy?
Predict what Country Xs population will be in 2030 and defend how you reached your prediction. If you
do additional research, cite your sources.
Create a presentation in which you answer the questions above. You may choose the type of media you
wish to use to present your argument. Include the answers to the questions in a slide presentation,
podcast, essay, or video recording.
After you have completed your presentation, submit the completed copy to your instructor.

02.06 The Demographic Transition Model


1. Complete all readings and practice activities in this lesson.
2. Review the Grading Rubric and then complete and submit Assignment 02.06 The Demographic
Transition Model.
2.06 The Demographic Transition Model
http://prezi.com/fov133xmc5yj/206-the-demographic-transition-model/
by Anna Wellen on 28 August 2013
1. Based on the birth and mortality rates, estimate the rate of natural increase (NIR = Crude birth rate
crude death rate) for each time period.
The NIR for Country X is still relatively high, but its overall population growth has experienced a decline.
For example, The natural rate of increase for Country X during the 1960 to 9065 was positive 29.8
percent. Yet, during the 1990's, its NIR was declined to a mere 13.16 percent increase. Consequently in
2009, the country's population growth continued to decline, reaching a positive 12.08 percent.
2. Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and cite at
least two data points from this table to support your answer.
After studying the information provided, I can conclude that Country X is currently in Stage 3. The birth
rate and death rates are continuing to decrease, while its overall population is slowly stably and stably
growing. While this country in industrializing, its economic success is fueled by exporting a wide variety
of goods such as iron ore, soybeans, coffee, automobiles, footwear, and transport equipment, but the
average household income is still relatively low.
3. What conclusions can be drawn about the countrys current economy?
I believe that Country X's economy as a whole is rather successful, but that the quality of work is
extremely low. I can conclude this due to the fact that Country X has a GDP of $1.499 trillion dollars, but
the GDP per capita is approximately $10,200. This is reasonable, considering the fact that total
population of Country X is 198,739,269. I can assume that the average person works for one of Country
X's many factories.
4. Predict what Country Xs population will be in 2030 and defend how you reached your prediction. If you
do additional research, cite your sources.
After consulting extremely reliable sources, I can conclude that Country X's population is approximately
250,000,000 million people. I came to this conclusion after I subtracted the 1950 population from the
2009 population, divided the answer by 59, and then added the final answer 21 times, which resulted in
this shockingly large number.
2.06: The Demographic Transition Model
http://prezi.com/3tw7yrmxhbi3/206-the-demographic-transition-model/
Anh Nguyen
APHUG
1. Based on the birth and mortality rates, estimate the rate of natural increase (NIR = Crude birth rate
crude death rate) for each time period.
The NIR of Country X, at the moment, is somewhat high. However, there seem to be a decline in the
country's population growth.
Mid-1990s
NIR: 29.8 per thousand
1990s:

NIR: 13.16 per thousand


2009:
NIR: 12.08 per thousand
2. Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and
cite at least two data points from this table to support your answer.
I believe that Country X is currently in the 3rd stage. The country's death and birth rate are
decreasing at a continuous rate, and it's population is trying to stabilize itself.
3. What conclusions can be drawn about the countrys current economy?
The economy of Country X seems to be doing well or better than some I would say. Considering the
fact that their GDA is $1.499 trillion, with a 198,739,269, the economy is going fairly strong.
4. Predict what Country Xs population will be in 2030 and defend how you reached your prediction. If
you do additional research, cite your sources.
I predict that the country's population might come the point where the death rate will become
higher than the birthday rate. The country might also remain at stage 3, or reach stage 4 or 5 by
2030. I reached my conclusion based on the fact that the if the country is accurately at the third
stage, it is logical for the country to continue to progress forward due to its thriving economy.
2.06 The Demographic Transition Model
http://prezi.com/3cg8ckjfx0qu/206-the-demographic-transition-model/
By:Jennifer Ascano
Review the statistics for Country X and consider the following questions:
Based on the birth and mortality rates, estimate the rate of natural increase (NIR = Crude birth rate crude
death rate) for each time period.
Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and cite at least
two data points from this table to support your answer.
What conclusions can be drawn about the countrys current economy?
Predict what Country Xs population will be in 2030 and defend how you reached your prediction. If you do
additional research, cite your sources.
NIR of Country X
NIR= Crude birth rate- crude mortality rate
Mid 1900's
NIR= 42.1-12.3
NIR=29.8 Thousand
1900's
NIR= 21.16 - 8
NIR=13.16 per thousand
2009
NIR=18.43 - 6.35
NIR=12.08 per thousand

Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and cite at least
two data points from this table to support your answer.
I think that Country x is in stage 3. The country's death and birth rates are decreasing at a steady rate and the
population is trying to become stable once more. The total GDP suggests that the country is econmically
developed.
What conclusions can be drawn about the countrys current economy?
The economy of country X is thriving and doing better than others. Their GDA is 1.499 trillion, with a
198,739,269 for their population. The GDA implies that better improvements could be made. The GDP rate of
country x shows the economy slowed down in 2008-2009.
In 2030, I predict that Country X's population will reach to 2.2-2.3 million people since the population growth
decreases by half every 10 years. I followed the pattern that showed the slow increase of the population and its
intervals. The birth and death rates will start to get closer together and means the population won't increase as
much as it did in the 20th century. The population will grow slower.
2.06 The Demographic Transition Model
http://prezi.com/3qpxa_caxa4a/206-the-demographic-transition-model/
by Jori Opara on 26 October 2013
Based on the birth and mortality rates, estimate the rate of natural increase (NIR = Crude birth rate crude
death rate) for each time period.
NIR:
Mid-1900s: (42.1-12.3)/10= 2.98%
1990s: (21.16-8)/10= 1.316%
2009: (18.43-6.35)/10= 1.208%

Describe what stage of the model you think that the country has been in since the mid-1900s, and cite at least
two data points from this table to support your answer.
Stage 3 of the model
o Moderate population growth
o Both death rates and birth rates drop, due to higher standards of living and health
improvements
o *England became fully industrialized

Country X:
o Increased about 100,000,000 from Mid-1900s to 1990s and about 50,000,000 from 1990s to
2009
o Birth Rates- Dropped about 20 from Mid-1900s to 1990s and about 3 from 1990s to 2009
o Death Rates- Dropped about 4 from Mid-1900s to 1990s and about 2 from 1990s to 2009
o Labor force by occupation- Agriculture 20%, industry 14%, services 66%

What conclusions can be drawn about the countrys current economy?


o Country X's economy is probably more developed than a lot of others countries, having increased
drastically in population and GDP, however:
o The GDP per capita is surprisingly low, indicating that improvements can be made to provide a
better standard of living
o Economy is going to hit a recession, based on the negative economic growth rate:
Jobs opportunities will decrease
Decline in income
Decrease in industrial production and manufacturing
Flop in consumer spending
Predict what Country Xs population will be in 2030 and defend how you reached your prediction. If you do
additional research, cite your sources.
In 2030, Country X's population will have increased to about 240 million
o Every 9 years, the population is increasing by a 1/2x pattern, x being the recent population
decline
o This is going from a single rapid growth to a gradual and slow population growth
Continuing with this pattern, the population will reach a negative growth
o Especially with the birth and death rates constantly decreasing in each time interval
o The fertility rate is slowly decreasing as well so that's an additional factor that will add to
population decrease

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