2014 Florida Gubernatorial Race

Hispanic Vote Analysis Report

The Future is Ours
El Futuro es Nuestro

Submitted to

Florida Democratic Party

Democratic Hispanic Caucus of Florida
November 11th, 2014

By: Phillip Arroyo

Hispanic Surrogate, 2014 Charlie Crist for Governor Campaign
Hispanic Surrogate, 2012 Obama Presidential Reelection Campaign
Former President, Puerto Rico Young Democrats
Former Chairman, Young Democrats of America National Hispanic Caucus
2012 White House Intern (OVP) Office of the Vice President Joe Biden

I.RESULTS OVERVIEW
The 2014 Florida gubernatorial race was among the closest races in our nations mid-term
elections last November 4th, 2014. For Florida democrats and especially Hispanic democrats, it
was also the most frustrating; due to the adverse electoral result despite of Governor Crists huge
support among the Hispanic electorate on election night. After months of mudslinging attacks
from the Republican opposition and millions of corporate dollars, our democratic candidate for
Governor Charlie Crist came up short, just as our 2010 candidate Alex Sink did (Surprisingly, Crist
lost by an almost identical margin as Alex Sink).
When it was all over and the smoke and dust settled; we were unsuccessful in our attempt to
capture the Florida Governors mansion by a razor thin margin of:

Source: CNN 2014 Elections Center

II. HISPANIC VOTE

When analyzing the Hispanic vote in the 2014 Florida gubernatorial race, it is quite clear that
Hispanics voted overwhelmingly for Charlie Crist as opposed to past election cycles where
Republicans have been considerably more successful in capturing the support of our community.
In the graphs we can observe the Hispanic vote results:
Vote Data by Race
In comparison to 2010, we were collectively able
to drastically reduce the Republican Partys
support among the Hispanic electorate by an
impressive -12% and increase our Hispanic
support by a whopping +10%. We were also able
to increase Hispanic turnout to 13% as opposed
to 12% in 2010 and 11% in 2006. So we are
slowly increasing turnout, which is good, but not
at a rate we would prefer.
In 2010, Rick Scott was able to actually win the
Hispanic Vote by obtaining 50% of our
communitys support as opposed to Alex Sinks
48%. In 2014, Crist received 58% of the Hispanic
vote and incumbent Rick Scott received 38%.
Republicans have had much more success
among Hispanics in Florida elections for most of
the 90S decade. However, that support rapidly
declined in recent election cycles and literally
disappeared in this years elections. Below we
can more closely observe how the GOPs
support among Hispanics has evaporated:
GOP Hispanic Support in FL Governor Races

Source: CNN Election Center

1998
Jeb Bush 61%
2002
Jeb Bush 59%
2006
Charlie Crist 49%
2010
Rick Scott 50%
2014
Rick Scott 38%

The rapid decline of the GOPs influence within the Hispanic community can be due to a number of
reasons. First, the huge Puerto Rican migration of close to 900,000 Boricuas relocating to the sunshine
state throughout the past decade, most of which settled in the central Florida region, has been without a
doubt a factor. Puerto Ricans historically vote democrat, and Jeb Bushs early decade support among
Hispanics mostly came from older Cubans who have historically voted Republican (The older generation

of Cubans have yet to turn the page regarding the Bay of Pigs controversy). Today, we have a Puerto Rican
Senator, Darren Soto, who was re-elected by a 75% margin. In addition, the GOPs radical stance on
immigration reform and Rick Scotts early support for Arizona style Immigration law in Florida also
contributed negatively to his partys drop in support among Hispanics. Last but not least, the GOPs
support among Cubans has been substantially diminished due in part to the younger generation of Cuban
Americans (who obviously werent on the face of the earth during the Bay of Pigs controversy) coming out
in big numbers for Charlie Crist as they did for Obama in 2012.
As the chart in the previous page of this report indicates, Charlie Crist won the Cuban vote by a 50% -46%
margin; an electoral feat unheard of by a democrat in a Florida Gubernatorial race. In summary, Hispanic
voters in Florida came out strong for Charlie Crist and the work we executed during the campaign and
throughout the media proved effective in that endeavor. There is, however, room for improvement.
Overall turnout percentage of eligible Hispanic voters in the 2014 election was 13%, 1 percentage point
below the African American 14% turnout. Considering the enormous Hispanic population that lives in
Florida, this is unacceptable, even if we did increase in our turnout by 1% and it is a mid-term election
where turnout is low among all demographics. Turnout could have been higher and it is something I
recommend we focus on as a priority for 2016 and beyond.

III. WHAT WENT WRONG?

According to the available electoral data
of this years elections, the answer to this
question can be summed up in three (3)
key elements ---------->>>>>>>>

Source: CNN Election Center

1.) Youth Vote:

- Only 7% of 18-24 year olds went to the
polls
- Only 7% of 20-29 year olds went to the
polls
- Total Youth Turnout: 14%
- As you can see within the provided
graph, both youth age groups supported
Crist, but in very low turnout
percentages)
2.) Senior Citizen Vote:
- A whopping 25% of the senior citizen
vote (Yes, senior citizens age 65 and up,
went to the polls and embarrassingly
surpassed (25%-14%) the turnout
percentage of both youth age groups
combined!)
- The Senior citizens vote supported Rick
Scott by a crushing 56%-40% margin.
3.) White Vote:
69% of the white population turned out
to vote.
- White voters favored Rick Scott by a 58%
- 37% margin (Interestingly, almost
identical to Crists Hispanic support
numbers)

IV CONCLUSION
Very old white people, many identified with the Tea Party philosophy, beat us. While young
people were sleeping, at the beach or hanging out on Election Day, an army of extremist, Tea
Partiers, many in walkers and wheelchairs, took us out. Plain and simple.
The alarmingly low turnout of the youth vote cost us dearly at the polls. This demographic has
consistently voted democrat and in higher turnout numbers for Presidential elections. However,
we have yet to decipher a way to increase turnout within this specific demographic in mid-term
elections.
Many political experts and/or political enthusiasts like myself predicted a higher turnout rate
among young people due to the Constitutional Amendment 2 Medical Marijuana referendum
vote included on the 2014 election ballot. We were wrong. Although support for the amendment
was greater than what was received by both candidates for Governor (58%), it ultimately and
sadly failed to reach the 60% threshold to amend Floridas Constitution.
Hispanics and African American voter turnout was 13% and 14% respectively. Charlie Crist
received robust electoral support within both minority demographics. However, as with the
youth vote, had turnout within any of these sectors been a little higher (say 1.5%-2%), Charlie
Crist would probably be Governor Elect today.
In closing, the GOP intends to cloak their conservative agenda in 2016, steal the Hispanic vote
which historically has sided with us and cruise to victory not only in Florida but across the nation
as well by recapturing the White House, only to take us back to the failed policies of the past. It
is imperative that we reorganize, re-energize and recentralize our efforts to keep the dream of a
better Florida very much alive.
The Future is Ours.. El Futuro es Nuestro..

Best Regards,

Phillip Arroyo
Former Chairman
National Hispanic Caucus
Young Democrats of America
2012 White House Intern