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Topics covered
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Software productivity
Estimation techniques
Algorithmic cost modelling
Project duration and staffing
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Cost estimate
uncertainty
Contractual te rms
Requirements
vola tility
Financial health
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Software productivity
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Productivity measures
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Measurement problems
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Lines of code
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Productivity comparisons
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Function points
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Anal ysis
Assembly code
High-level language
3 weeks
3 weeks
Design
Coding
Testi ng
5 weeks
5 weeks
8 weeks
4 weeks
10
weeks
6 weeks
Documentation
2 weeks
2 weeks
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Assembly code
High-level language
Size
Effort
Producti vity
5000 l ines
1500 l ines
28 weeks
20 weeks
714 lines/month
300 lines/month
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Function points
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Object points
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Productivity estimates
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Process quality
Project si ze
Technology
support
Working
environment
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Estimation techniques
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Changing technologies
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Estimation techniques
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Estimation techniques
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Algo rithmic
cost modelling
A mod el based o n historical cos t info rmation that r elates some so ftware
metric (usu ally its si ze) to the project cost is us ed . An estimate is made
of that metric and the mod el predicts the eff ort required.
Expert
judgement
Several experts on the prop osed sof tware development techniques and
th e app lication dom ain are consu lted. They each estimate the pro ject
cost. These estimates are compared and discuss ed. The estimation
process iterates until an agr eed estimate is reached.
Estimation by
analo gy
This techn iqu e is app licable when other projects in the same application
domain have been comp leted. The cost of a new project is estimated by
analog y with these completed projects. Myers ( Myers 1989) giv es a
very clear descrip tion of this app roach .
Parkinso ns
Law
Parkinso nsLaw states that work expands to fill the time av ailable. The
cost is determined by available resou rces r ather than by objective
assessm ent. If the software h as to be deliv ered in 12 months and 5
people are av ailable, the effort required is estimated to be 60 perso nmonths.
Pricing to win
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Pricing to win
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Disadvantages:
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Bottom-up estimation
Bottom-up
Top-down estimation
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Estimation methods
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Pricing to win
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Effort = A Size B M
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Estimation accuracy
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Estimate uncertainty
4x
2x
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Feasibility
Requirements
Design
Code
Delivery
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0.5x
0.25 x
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COCOMO 81
Formula
Description
Simple
Well-und ersto od
app lications
developed by small teams.
Moderate
Embedd ed
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COCOMO 2
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Project
complex ity
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COCOMO 2 models
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Number of
application points
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Number of function
points
Based on
Number of lines of
code reused or
generated
Based on
Number of lines of
source code
Initial effort
estimation based on
system requirements
and design options
Used for
Reuse model
Based on
Prototype systems
developed using
scripting, DB
prog ramming etc.
Used for
Post-architecture
model
Used for
Used for
Development effor t
based on system
design specification
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Application
composition model
Based on
Developers experience
and capability
Very low
Low
Nominal
High
Very high
Very low
Low
Nominal
High
Very high
13
25
50
PROD (NOP/month)
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Multipliers
PM = A Size B M where
M = PERS RCPX RUSE PDIF PREX
FCIL SCED;
A = 2.94 in initial calibration, Size in KLOC, B
varies from 1.1 to 1.24 depending on novelty of
the project, development flexibility, risk
management approaches and the process
maturity.
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PM = (ASLOC * AT/100)/ATPROD
ASLOC is the number of lines of generated
code
AT is the percentage of code automatically
generated.
ATPROD is the productivity of engineers in
integrating this code.
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Post-architecture level
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Prece dentedness
Re flects the pre vious experience of the organisati on with this type of
project . Very low me ans no previous e xperie nce , Extra high mea ns
that the organisation is comp le tely familia r with this application
domain.
Deve lopment
flexibility
Architecture/risk
resol ution
Re flects the extent of risk analysis carried out. Very low means little
anal ysis, Extra high means a complete a thorough ri sk ana lysis.
Team cohesion
Re flects how wel l the development tea m know eac h other and work
togethe r. Very low means very diffic ult inte ract ions, Extra high
mea ns an integrated and effective team with no communicat ion
problems.
Proce ss maturity
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Multipliers
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Product attributes
Personnel attributes
Computer attributes
Project attributes
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Project planning
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Reliability
Complexity
Memory constraint
Tool use
S chedule
Adjusted C OCO MO estimate
Reliability
Complexity
Memory constraint
Tool use
S chedule
Adjusted C OCO MO estimate
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Management options
Exponent val ue
1.17
S ystem size (including factors for reuse 128, 000 DSI
and requirements volat il ity)
In itial COCOMO estim ate without
730 person-months
cost drivers
Must be reliable;
Must minimise weight (number of chips);
Multipliers on reliability and computer constraints > 1.
B. Processor and
memory upg rade
C. Memory
upg rade onl y
D. More
experienced staf f
Cost components
Target hardware;
Development platform;
Development effort.
E. Ne w de velopment
system
F. Staff with
har dware e xperience
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Option choice
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Option
RE LY
STOR
TIME
TOOLS
LTEX
1.39
1 .06
1.11
0 .86
63
9 4939 3
1.39
1 .12
1.22
88
1313 550
120 000
140 2025
C
D
1.39
1.39
1
1 .06
1.11
1.11
0 .86
0 .86
1
0.84
60
51
8 9565 3
7 6900 8
105 000
100 000
100 0653
8974 90
1.39
0 .72
1.22
56
8 4442 5
220 000
104 4159
1.39
1 .12
0.84
57
8 5118 0
120 000
100 2706
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TDEV = 3 (PM)
(0.33+0.2*(B-1.01))
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Staffing requirements
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Key points
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Key points
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