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Fall 2006
Course Information
PSCI 6325.001: Decision Theory
GR 3.604
Fall 2006
Course Description
Explores the development of decision-making models and theories across organizational and
institutional environments. Includes details analysis of decision-making under conditions of
certainty, risk and uncertainty; optimal decision rules; collective action problems; and
institutional environments.
Chong, Dennis. 2000. Rational Lives: Norms and Values in Politics and Society. Chicago:
University of Chicago Press.
Jones, Bryan D. 2001. Politics and the Architecture of Choice: Bounded Rationality and
Governance. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Tetlock, Phillip E. 2005. Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Princeton: PUP.
Hargreaves Heap, Shaun, and Martin Hollis. 1992. The Theory of Choice: A Critical Guide.
Blackwell Publishers.
Morton, Rebecca B. 1999. Methods & Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal
Models in Political Science. Cambridge: CUP.
Readings listed with bullets are required for each week. All required readings should be available
in the assigned texts on electronically through the UTD library.
Optional, supplemental or classics on the topic are listed separately for each week.
During this first week we will review how this course is organized and what we will be doing. I
will also provide a general overview of decision theory, rational choice, social choice, and game
theory approaches
Week 2 (August 29): Examples of Decision Theory in Political Science and Political
Economy
The goal of this week’s readings is to introduce you to some examples of decision theory and
rational choice modeling in political science. The first two readings provide an introduction to
various assumptions about rationality and rational actor paradigms in the social sciences. The
Krehbiel readings provide an example of how rational choice / game theoretical models are
employed to describe and hypothesize about legislative behavior. These rational choice models
are built upon a set of rule-bound institutions that define the incentives and institutions that shape
choices. The Firmin-Sellers’ reading provides a different example where institutional choice and
design are important for producing a collective outcome. Here we see that there are tensions
between individual and societal rational action. The final reading by Geddes extends the rational
choice paradigm to explain the success and /or failure of political reform.
Optional:
Camerer, Colin (2003) Behavioral Game Theory Princeton, NJ: Princeton University
Press.
Lau, Richard R. (2003) “Models of Decision Making.” In Political Psychology D.O.
Sears, L. Huddy, and R. Jervis (eds.) Oxford: Oxford University Press.
This week’s readings address one on the basic building blocks in understanding decision theory
models: rationality. Much of the subsequent literature in this course will be concerned with the
rationality of individuals and groups. Thus, we must understand what this means and how it is
applied. The review piece by Kato looks at different applied strains of “new instituionalism” that
vary in terms of their conception of rationality. Satz and Ferejohn continue this line of analysis
pointing out how and when rational choice models can and should be applied—answering in part
the “what is this approach good for” question. The two readings from Hargreaves Heap et al.
look at different decision making environments where rational behavior is well known to differ:
decision-making with certainty versus risk (or uncertainty). This is a critical distinction in that
assumptions about risk lead us to question the presence and application of basic rationality as
defined and discussed in the Mueller chapters. We close by looking at a simple introduction to
game theory. One should consider how these different approaches to rationality do and do not
work in game theory and rational choice models.
Optional:
Ordeshook, Peter C. 1986. Game Theory and political theory. Cambridge; CUP.
Tullock, Gordon. 1967. Toward a Mathematics of Politics. Ann Arbor: University of
Michigan Press.
Ordeshook, Peter C. 1993. “The development of contemporary political theory.” In
Political Economy: Institutions, Competition, and Representation. Williams A. Barnett,
Melvin Hinich and Norman Schofield, eds. Cambridge: CUP. Pp. 71-106.
Kreps, David M. 1988. Notes on the Theory of Choice. Boulder: Westview.
Optional:
Week 5 (September 19): Foundational Topics III: Behavioral and revisionist views of
rationality and its implications.
Until this week, we have considered only one type of instrumental rationality and goal orietnted
behavior. It turns out that this “strong” rationality models—assuming that people can calculated
perfectly and infinitely—do not marry well with reality. Rationale behavior and decision-making
often includes cutting corners and using short-cuts. This week we look at models and incorporate
these strategies. Bryan Jones’ book presents one account of this and its implications for political
science. The other readings present alternative views: Hargreaves Heap et al. and Opp survey
some of the major approaches; Ostrom’s Public Choice Society address looks at how institutions
rationality and decisions interact; Levy’s analysis uses prospect theory to look at international
relations.
Jones, all
“How People Choose” in Hargreaves Heap et al. 1992. Theory of Choice. Chapter 3.
Opp, K.D. 1999. “Contending Theories of Rational Action.” Journal of Theoretical
Politics. 11(2): 171-202
Ostrom, Elinor. 1986. "An Agenda for the Study of Institutions." Public Choice. 48:3-25.
Levy, Jack S. 1997. “Prospect Theory, Rational Choice and International Relations.”
International Studies Quarterly. 41(1): 87-112. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0020-
8833%28199703%2941%3A1%3C87%3APTRCAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I
Optional:
Decision-making does not happen in a vacuum. In fact, rules, institutions, and choice
mechanisms interact. Decision-making then is a reaction to incentives, constraints, and rules.
These rules, which are themselves part and parcel of institutions are critical for understanding
decision-making. This week we survey some of the major approaches to thinking about rule-
bound decisions and behavior. Archer’s chapter presents a taxonomy of how one can think about
rules and their impacts. Crawford and Ostrom go further, proposing a “grammar” that can be
used as an ontology for understanding how rules and institutions are interpreted in a game-
theoretic and rational choice context. Finally, the Krehbiel et al. forum shows how decision
theory tools—spatial and distributive politics models—explain the design and workings of
institutions and the outcomes thereof.
Optional:
Riker, William 1980. “Implications from Disequilibrium of Majority Rule for The Study
of Institutions” American Political Science Review. 74: 432-446.
McKelvey, Richard D. 1976. “Intransitivities in Multidimensional Voting Models And
Some Implications for Agenda Control” Journal of Economic Theory 2:472-482.
Riker, William H. 1982. Liberalism against Populism. Prospect Heights, Illinois:
Waveland Press.
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper & Row.
Aldrich, John R. 1990. “Rational Choice and Turnout.” American Journal of Political
Science, 37(1): 246-278. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0092-
5853%28199302%2937%3A1%3C246%3ARCAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K
Hargreaves Heap et al. 1992. Theory of Choice. Part III, Chapters 13-18.
Olson, Mancur. 1965. "The Logic of Collective Action" Chapter 1. pp. 1-52.
Ostrom, Elinor. 1998. "A Behavioral Approach to the Rational Choice Theory of
Collective Action." 1997 APSA Presidential Address. American Political Science Review
92(1) (March): 1-22. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-
0554%28199803%2992%3A1%3C1%3AABATTR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F
Ostrom, Vincent and Elinor Ostrom. "Public Goods and Public Choices: The Emergence
of Public Economies and Industry Structures." Chapter 7 in Ostrom, Vincent. 1987. The
Meaning of American Federalism: Constituting a Self-Governing Society.
Twain, Mark. "The Pilots' Monopoly" Life on the Mississippi Chapter XV.
http://ofcn.org/cyber.serv/resource/bookshelf/lmiss10/chapter15.html
Laitin, David D. 1994. "The Tower of Babel as a Coordination Game: Political
Linguistics in Ghana" American Political Science Review. 88(3): 622-634.
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-
0554%28199409%2988%3A3%3C622%3ATTOBAA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-S
This week we look at alternative ways to understand collective action and decision-making.
Dennis Chong’s book provides a new theory and analysis of the problem. The two articles offer
further experimental evidence for when collective behavior can be induced and at what cost.
Chong, all
James Andreoni; William Harbaugh; Lise Vesterlund . 2003. “The Carrot or the Stick:
Rewards, Punishments, and Cooperation.” American Economic Review, 93(3): 893-902.
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-
8282%28200306%2993%3A3%3C893%3ATCOTSR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-U
Elinor Ostrom; James Walker; Roy Gardner. 1992. “Covenants With and Without a
Sword: Self-Governance is Possible” American Political Science Review, 86(2): 404-417.
http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0003-
0554%28199206%2986%3A2%3C404%3ACWAWAS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-V
Optional
Miller, Gary. 1990. Managerial Dilemmas: The Political Economy of Hierarchy.
Cambridge: CUP.
Political decision-making also includes forecasting and planning. This week we look at how this
is done in political science. Tetlock’s book on the topic is based on long term experimental and
field work on how elites forecast political events. His results are intriguing in that he finds that
there are significant differences in how people forecast and how well they do. The chapters in the
Tetlock all.
Skim Chapter 4, pp. 57-144 of Armstrong, J. Scott, ed. 2001. Principles of Forecasting:
A Handbook for Researchers and Practicioners. New York: Springer.
See the summary of forecasting and prediction papers on the Kansas Event Data System
(KEDS) website: http://www.ku.edu/~keds/papers.dir/forecasting.html
See the Brandt and Freeman conflict forecasting site at http://yule.utdallas.edu
Optional
Armstrong, J. Scott, ed. 2001. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers
and Practicioners. New York: Springer.
Institutions are one solution to decision-making and preference aggregation problems. Baron and
Ferejohn look at how legislative rules affect bargaining outcomes while Gilligan and Krehbiel
show how institutional design can help or hinder voting and policy bargaining in legislatures.
Note though that these institutional features are critical to the results: institutional design matters.
Optional:
Riker, Williams H. 1986. The Art of Political Manipulation. New Haven: Yale.
Williamson, Oliver. E. 1985. The Economic Institutions of Capitalism. New York: Free
Press.
VonNeumann, John and Oskar Morgenstern. 1943. Theory of Games and Economic
Behavior. New York: John Wiley.
Luce, R. Duncan and Howard Raiffa. 1957. Games and Decisions. New York: John
Wiley & Sons.
Testing models of political decision-making is complicated by the structure and design of the
models used to explain these decisions. Morton’s book looks at how rational choice models
should and can be tested. Merlo’s article presents a similar survey with broader connections to
political economy. We will also be looking at other examples from the literature this week.
These include actual tests of rational choice models, measurement of key concepts such as
preferences and computational models. All will be responsible for the General readings this
week; the other topics will be subdivided among the students in the course.
General
Morton, all.
Examples
Measurement
Poole, Keith T. 1998. “Recovering a Basic Space From a Set of Issue Scales.” American
Journal of Political Science. 42(3): 954-993. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0092-
5853%28199807%2942%3A3%3C954%3ARABSFA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J. See also
Poole’s website at http://voteview.com
Andrew D. Martin and Kevin M. Quinn. 2002. "Dynamic Ideal Point Estimation via
Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the U.S. Supreme Court, 1953-1999." Political Analysis.
10: 134-153. http://adm.wustl.edu/pdfs/pa02.pdf. See also Martin’s website at
http://adm.wustl.edu/supct.php
Computational
Kollman, Kenneth and Scott Page (forthcoming) “Computational Methods and Modeling
Politics” in Handbook of Computational Economics vol. 2 L. Tesfastion and K. Judd
Editors. Pages 12-21.
Jones, Brad et. al. 1995. “Condorcet Winners and the Paradox of Voting: Probability
Calculations for Weak Preference Orderings” American Political Science Review 89(1):
137-147.
Kollman, Ken, John Miller and Scott Page 1992. “Adaptive Parties in Spatial Elections”
American Political Science Review 86: 929-937.
Optional
Bates, Robert, Robert H. Bates, Avner Greif, Margaret Levi, and Jean-Laurent Rosenthal.
1998. Analytic Narratives. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Munger, Michael. 2000. Analyzing Policy: Choices, Conflicts and Practices. New York:
W. W. Norton and Company.
Poole. Keith T. 2005. Spatial Models of Parliamentary Voting. Cambridge: CUP.
Week 12 (November 7): Decision theory, game theory and social choice comparisons
This week we return to the earlier discussions of how to build and interpret decision theory
models. We will focus especially on the connections (or disconnect) between strategic decision-
making and social choice. As an example, we will look at the theorem by Amartya Sen on the
“Impossibility of the Paretian Liberal”. We will then discuss how strategic decision-making,
uncertainty and institutions allow for the preservation of rights and choices.
Optional
Ordeshook, Peter C, ed. 1989. Models of Strategic Choice in Politics. Ann Arbor:
University of Michigan Press.
Sen, Amartya. 1982. Choice, Welfare and Measurement. Cambridge: Harvard University
Press.
Hayek, Friedrich A. 1960. The Constitution of Liberty. Chicago: University of Chicago
Press.
Week 13 (November 14): Criticisms of rational choice and decision theory models I
The final two weeks readings address criticisms of rational choice and decision theory models in
political science. This has been a major epistemological debate for the last 20 years and one that
you need to be aware of. A major salvo at the rational choice approach was launched by Green
and Shapiro’s (1994) Pathologies of Rational Choice with responses by many rational choice
practicioners in a special issue of Critical Theory. Rather that read this (which you should if you
work in this tradition) we will begin with Mueller’s critical appraisal of the contributions of
rational choice approaches to political science and economy. We then turn to Cox’s rejoinder to
Green and Shapiro. In the final week we will look at S. M. Amadae’s recent intellectual history
and critique of the rational choice approach in political science.
Optional:
Donald P. Green and Ian Shapiro, 1994. Pathologies of Rational Choice: A Critique Of
Applications in Political Science. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Week 14 (November 21): Criticisms of rational choice and decision theory models II
Amadae, all.
There are four major required written components for this course:
1. Weekly questions: Each week you should submit three questions to the instructor about
the week’s readings. These questions will be the basis for class discussion and will be
used to guide how we address the material each week. These questions are due by noon
on the day of class.
2. Weekly memos: You are responsible for two weekly memos during the term. These are
in addition to the questions described above. Memos should be a critical review of the
weeks’ readings. Memos should be about 2 single-spaced pages long and submitted via
e-mail to me. Memos are due at noon on the day of class.
3. Exam: There will be a take-home final exam during the last week of the course. It will
be due during the day of the regular exam date for this course. The exam will cover all of
the material in the course and will consist of questions of the type that one would see on a
comprehensive exam.
4. Application / critical review paper: Each student will write a 10-15 page double-spaced
critical review or application paper. You should make an appointment to discuss this
paper with the professor prior to starting. The paper should either review the application
of a decision theory model or approach to a political science problem or apply a decision
theoretic approach to theorizing about a question. For the latter, you need not fully
derive or work out a model, but there should be a clear possibility of doing this and
having it be a major theory. In sum, you should view this paper as a part of a larger
project or dissertation—say a theory chapter, or part of the background work.
Grading Policy
(including percentages for assignments, grade scale, etc.)
Late assignments and papers will be penalized. Late assignments and papers will be penalized
10% per day. Papers or assignments submitted via e-mail will be considered received by the date
and time stamp on the e-mail received in my e-mail inbox. The paper will be due on the last
scheduled class date (November 21, 2006).
It should go without saying that in a class of this size your attendance is easily noted and
therefore required. If you are unable to make a class or will be late, advise the instructor as far in
advance as possible.
If you have any questions about your grade on an assignment, please wait until 24 hours after
receiving your assignment before discussing the grade with the professor. There are no
exceptions to this policy.
If you wish to have an assignment re-graded, it must be returned to the professor within two days
of the day it was returned (if I am not available that day, ask the staff of the School of Social
Sciences to leave it in my box). Assignments to be re-graded must include a memo stating the
reason why you believe they assignment should be re-graded. Finally, re-graded assignments can
be graded higher, lower, or the same as the initial grade.
Turn off your cell phone. I really do not care if they ring, but it is VERY distracting to others.
(Exceptions to this policy can be made, come to talk to me.)
Do not fall asleep. It is rude and distracting. Bring coffee if you need it (I do.)
Raise your hand when you want to be recognized to answer or ask a question. If you do not raise
your hand I will not recognize you or your answer.
You are reponsible for things: therefore if you miss something my response will be ``How is this
my problem?''
Note that this syllabus is not a contract. It is subject to change at my discretion. While we may
be studying the political science, this class is not a democracy.
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