Monthly FX Report

November 2014
EUR/USD 1M

EUR/USD 1Y

1,2600

1,4500

1,2550

1,4000

1,2500

1,3500

1,2450

1,3000

1,2400

1,2500

1,2350

1,2000

1,2300

1,1500

1,2250
2-Nov

9-Nov

16-Nov

23-Nov

30-Nov

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

MARKET EXPECTATIONS
Technical Analysis
The EURUSD has been on a downward trend since 1.40 was roughly reached
in May. The level of 1.2850 worked as a support in September, and later,
became a resistance as the pair tested said level and dipped to 1.2350. In the
mid time, 1.25 was reached. This level served as a support, following a
Fibonacci retracement of 23.6 since the USD rally started. The pair seems to
be testing now 1.2570 as a resistance, with a strong short term support at
1.2350. The Fibonacci retracements have been providing solid short positions
over this period. A breakout through the barrier of 1.26 may suggest a short
term correction up to 1.2760 and 1.2850. On the other hand, if the support
is breached, the 1.23 level should be tested, following 1.20 and 1.18.

Fundamental Analysis
Dollar is bullish as the US economy expanded by 3.9% at an annual rate in
the third quarter of 2014, up from an initial estimate of 3.5 percent,
outperforming most countries in the developed world. American employers
added more 228,000 workers in November and the unemployment rate will
hold at 5.8 percent, the lowest since 2008. A strong job creation, low interest
rates, low levels of household debt, high labour productivity growth and
robust technological progress shows that US growth is relatively strong. On
the other side, Europe remains a major doubt on the global economy. Euro
zone economy is expected to remain stagnant in the short-to-medium term,
with the ECB ready to act fast with sovereign bond buying to increase liquidity
and stimulate higher consumption and inflation spurring economic growth.

Calendar
Dec. 4 ECB Press Conference and US Unemployment data;
Dec. 5 US Unemployment and Trade Balance data;
Dec. 11 ECBs targeted LTRO and US Retail Sales and
Unemployment data;
Dec. 12 US PPI and Consumer Sentiment data;
Dec. 17 FOMC Press Conference and Federal Funds Rate;
Dec. 18 German Business Climate and US Unemployment data;
Dec. 23 US Final GDP and New Home Sales data;
Dec. 24 US Unemployment data;
Dec. 30 US Consumer Confidence data.

SPOTLIGHT: Swiss Referendum on Gold

On Sunday, November 30, Swiss people voted on whether the national bank should increase their gold stocks. If so, gold stocks
would have been frozen on the new level (20%, almost three times as high as the current 8%). But the majority of Swiss people
voted no as polls showed on Sunday. The gold market is interesting for currency traders to watch as gold is denominated in
USD. Hence there is an inverse link between the two, which however is not always met. Another close relationship used to exist
between the EUR and gold before the debt crisis in Europe. Besides the referendum on gold, the Swiss people also voted on a
restriction on immigrants accepted in Switzerland and limited tax benefits to rich foreigners. Both referendums were voted against.
Further Sources:
- Bloomberg Video on Gold and FX
- Bloomberg Article on Referendum (published Nov. 5, 2014)

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FX TRADING TEAM

Andr Moreira (BSc in Finance, 2nd Year MSc in Finance)

From Amarante, Portugal

Fluent in Portuguese & English (learning Mandarin; basics in French,
Spanish and Italian)
Internships in Financial Markets (Private Investors Group) and
Statistics (Bank of Portugal)
Technical Analyst
Trader

Charlotte Hoefner (BSc in Economics, 1st Year MSc in Finance)

From Dsseldorf, Germany

Fluent in German & English (learning Portuguese; Basics in French and
Italian)
Internships in Financial Markets (Socit Gnrale; ThyssenKrupp,
Warburg & CO, HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt)
Market Researcher

Francisco Fernandes (BSc in Economics, 1st Year MSc in Finance)

From Porto, Portugal

Fluent in Portuguese (Advanced in English; Basics in Spanish)
No professional experience in Financial Markets

Fundamental Analyst
Trader

Joo Fernandes (BSc in Economics, 2nd Year MSc in Finance)

From Vila Real, Portugal

Fluent in English & Portuguese (Basics in French and Spanish)
No professional experience in Financial Markets
Director and Financial Markets Team Manager at FEP Finance Club

Coordinator of FX Trading division

Trader

Financial Markets | ffc@fepfinanceclub.com | www.facebook.com/FEPFinanceClub

Contacts FEP Finance Club FX team

Andr Moreira
andre.moreira@fepfinanceclub.org

Francisco Fernandes
francisco.fernandes@fepfinanceclub.org

Charlotte Hoefner
charlotte.hoefner@fepfinanceclub.org
org

Joo Fernandes
joao.fernandes@fepfinanceclub.org
org

IMPORTANT NOTICE and DISCLAIMER:

This publication has been prepared by FEP Finance Club for informational and marketing purposes only.
Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to
change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from
sources believed reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy
or completeness and neither the information nor the forecast shall be taken as a representation for which FEP
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affiliates accept any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this information. This publication is
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to herein, nor shall this publication be construed as an opinion as to whether you should enter into any swap
or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. The general transaction, financial, educational and
market information contained herein is not intended to be, and does not constitute, a recommendation of a
swap or trading strategy involving a swap within the meaning of U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Regulation 23.434 and Appendix A thereto. This material is not intended to be individually tailored to your
needs or characteristics and should not be viewed as a call to action or suggestion that you enter into a swap
or trading strategy involving a swap or any other transaction. You should note that the manner in which you
implement any of the strategies set out in this publication may expose you to significant risk and you should
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