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1. Por qu Radio One desea adquirir las 12 estaciones de Clear Channel Communications que
estn rankeadas entre las 50 mejores adems de las nueve estaciones en Charlotte, NC,
Augusta, GA, e Indianpolis, ID? Cules son los beneficios y riesgos?.
La razn importante que debe de guiar a los directivos de Radio One es que luego de la adquisicin
ellos pueden obtener Aumentar el Valor de la Empresa y lo lograran porque se convertiran en
lderes del sector.
Con la capacidad y experiencia de sus principales ejecutivos puede muy bien administrar
las nuevas emisoras. Esta es una muy buena ventaja frente a sus competidores.
2. Qu precio debera ofrecer Radio One basado en un anlisis de flujo de caja descontado?
son razonables las proyecciones del flujo de caja?
Si creemos que son razonables los flujos de caja. Con el anlisis segn mtodo de flujo de caja
descontado obtenemos que el valor es de $ 1.11 mil millones de dlares con un crecimiento de 8%
y este es el valor ms cercano al precio real que se paga por $ 1.36 mil millones.
empresa (en
miles $)
4%
6%
8%
669,705
806,391
1,142,621
Escenario 1 - Target Valor de la Empresa con el 4,00% tasa de crecimiento constante (cifras en $ 1000)
Capital Neto de Trabajo (NWC)% de BCF
47.90%
Ao 0
1999
$120,486
15,094
$105,392
Ao 1
2000
8.22%
$130,384
16,243
$114,143
Ao 2
2001
12.35%
$146,488
18,176
$128,313
Ao 3
2002
12.56%
$164,891
20,432
$144,460
Ao 4
2003
10.75%
$182,609
22,624
$159,985
$46,376
59,014
$3,487
$55,527
$0
$0
$55,527
$18,879
$36,648
$49,102
65,041
$3,362
$61,679
$0
$0
$61,679
$20,971
$40,708
$51,877
76,436
$3,877
$72,559
$90,000
$420
-$17,861
-$6,073
-$11,788
$54,750
89,711
$4,498
$85,213
$90,000
$840
-$5,627
-$1,913
-$3,714
$58,020
101,966
$5,147
$96,819
$90,000
$1,260
$5,559
$1,890
$3,669
$60,543
115,277
$5,875
$109,402
$90,000
$1,680
$17,722
$6,026
$11,697
Aadir: Depreciacin
$0
Menos: Gastos de capital
$0
Menos: Aumento de la Comisin Nacional del Agua
FCF
$36,648
$0
$0
$40,708
$90,000
$2,100
$3,662
$72,450
$90,000
$2,100
$636
$83,550
$90,000
$2,100
$587
$90,982
$90,000
$2,100
$638
$98,959
Valor Terminal
FCF + Valor Terminal
$0
$40,708
$0
$72,450
$0
$83,550
$0
$90,982
$710,399
$809,358
$3,662
-$87,900
-0.08
-1.67
$4,297
-$87,900
-0.02
-1.88
$4,885
-$87,900
0.02
-2.08
$5,522
-$87,900
0.06
-2.28
valor de empresa
$0
$36,648
$119,888
$270,000
$2,100
$11,229
$90,000
$3,516
$51,904
$45,809
$669,705
NWC Equilibrio
EPPN (CAPEX-Dip. Por ao)
NOPAT / Venta
Venta / EPPN
Mltiples
Ao 5
Ao 6/Estado Estable
2004
2005
9.89%
4.00%
$200,676
$208,703
24,857
$175,820
11.3
12.1
18.3
$57,426
-$84,384
Escenario 2 - Target Valor de la Empresa con el 6,00% tasa de crecimiento constante (cifras en $ 1000)
Capital Neto de Trabajo (NWC)% de BCF
47.90%
Ao 0
1999
$120,486
15,094
$105,392
Ao 1
2000
8.22%
$130,384
16,243
$114,143
Ao 2
2001
12.35%
$146,488
18,176
$128,313
Ao 3
2002
12.56%
$164,891
20,432
$144,460
Ao 4
2003
10.75%
$182,609
22,624
$159,985
$46,376
59,014
$3,487
$55,527
$0
$0
$55,527
$18,879
$36,648
$49,102
65,041
$3,362
$61,679
$0
$0
$61,679
$20,971
$40,708
$51,877
76,436
$3,877
$72,559
$90,000
$420
-$17,861
-$6,073
-$11,788
$54,750
89,711
$4,498
$85,213
$90,000
$840
-$5,627
-$1,913
-$3,714
$58,020
101,966
$5,147
$96,819
$90,000
$1,260
$5,559
$1,890
$3,669
$60,543
115,277
$5,875
$109,402
$90,000
$1,680
$17,722
$6,026
$11,697
Aadir: Depreciacin
$0
Menos: Gastos de capital
$0
Menos: Aumento de la Comisin Nacional del Agua
FCF
$36,648
$0
$0
$40,708
$90,000
$2,100
$3,662
$72,450
$90,000
$2,100
$636
$83,550
$90,000
$2,100
$587
$90,982
$90,000
$2,100
$638
$98,959
Valor Terminal
FCF + Valor Terminal
$0
$40,708
$0
$72,450
$0
$83,550
$0
$90,982
$962,025
$1,060,984
$3,662
-$87,900
-0.08
-1.67
$4,297
-$87,900
-0.02
-1.88
$4,885
-$87,900
0.02
-2.08
$5,522
-$87,900
0.06
-2.28
$0
$36,648
valor de empresa
Ao 5
Ao 6/Estado Estable
2004
2005
9.89%
6.00%
$200,676
$212,717
24,857
$175,820
$122,194
$270,000
$2,100
$10,995
$90,000
$5,274
$53,009
$42,712
$806,391
NWC Equilibrio
EPPN (CAPEX-Dip. Por ao)
NOPAT / Venta
Venta / EPPN
$58,531
-$82,626
Mltiples
13.7
14.5
22.0
Escenario 3 - Target Valor de la Empresa con el 8,00% tasa de crecimiento constante (cifras en $ 1000)
Capital Neto de Trabajo (NWC)% de BCF
47.90%
Ao 0
1999
$120,486
15,094
$105,392
Ao 1
2000
8.22%
$130,384
16,243
$114,143
Ao 2
2001
12.35%
$146,488
18,176
$128,313
Ao 3
2002
12.56%
$164,891
20,432
$144,460
Ao 4
2003
10.75%
$182,609
22,624
$159,985
$46,376
59,014
$3,487
$55,527
$0
$0
$55,527
$18,879
$36,648
$49,102
65,041
$3,362
$61,679
$0
$0
$61,679
$20,971
$40,708
$51,877
76,436
$3,877
$72,559
$90,000
$420
-$17,861
-$6,073
-$11,788
$54,750
89,711
$4,498
$85,213
$90,000
$840
-$5,627
-$1,913
-$3,714
$58,020
101,966
$5,147
$96,819
$90,000
$1,260
$5,559
$1,890
$3,669
$60,543
115,277
$5,875
$109,402
$90,000
$1,680
$17,722
$6,026
$11,697
Aadir: Depreciacin
$0
Menos: Gastos de capital
$0
Menos: Aumento de la Comisin Nacional del Agua
FCF
$36,648
$0
$0
$40,708
$90,000
$2,100
$3,662
$72,450
$90,000
$2,100
$636
$83,550
$90,000
$2,100
$587
$90,982
$90,000
$2,100
$638
$98,959
Valor Terminal
FCF + Valor Terminal
$0
$40,708
$0
$72,450
$0
$83,550
$0
$90,982
$1,580,995
$1,679,954
$3,662
-$87,900
-0.08
-1.67
$4,297
-$87,900
-0.02
-1.88
$4,885
-$87,900
0.02
-2.08
$5,522
-$87,900
0.06
-2.28
valor de empresa
$0
$36,648
$124,499
$270,000
$2,100
$10,761
$90,000
$7,032
$54,113
$39,616
$1,142,621
NWC Equilibrio
EPPN (CAPEX-Dip. Por ao)
NOPAT / Venta
Venta / EPPN
Mltiples
Ao 5
Ao 6/Estado Estable
2004
2005
9.89%
8.00%
$200,676
$216,730
24,857
$175,820
19.4
20.6
31.2
$59,635
-$80,868
Ticker
Company
BCF
BBGI
CBS
AFM
CITC
CCU
CXR
CMLS
EMMS
ETM
HBCCA
INF
ROIA
SGA
WOM
11.8
15.1
14.7
14.6
17.2
17.4
17.7
11
16.6
42.1
18.8
22.1
9.9
24.4
Average
18.1
Back to Index
15.4
22.3
14.4
21.7
20.1
24.2
37.2
13.2
21.1
59.7
26.9
36.5
14.5
38.6
NA
1.06
0.96
0.68
0.65
0.27
0.83
0.55
0.3
1.23
0.82
0.82
0.26
1.29
26.1
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.793422
R Square
0.629519
Adjusted R Square 0.506025
Standard Error
0.240597
Observations
13
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
X Variable 3
0.75
Target Data and Asset Beta Estimate for Potential New Markets
BCF
101.5
EBITDA
98.1
After-Tax Cashflow
64.7
Calculated Asset Beta
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
0.465266 0.19123 2.433011
0.416997 0.171345 2.433669
-0.41181 0.172111 -2.39267
0.025233 0.016498 1.529431
0.75 << Use Average value since otheis requiredrwise interation of BCF, FCF and BCF multiple
Input Data:
RPM
rRF
bu
SS
MS
F Significance F
3 0.885248 0.295083 5.097574 0.024744
9 0.520982 0.057887
12 1.406231
rs=rRF+(RPM)(bi)
7.20%
6.28%
0.614754
Activos bi promedio
0.75
L U *
1 1 t * E
bu
0.614754
rs
10.71%
4. Asumiendo que el precio de las acciones de Radio One es 30X BCF, se puede ofrecer como
mucho 30X BCF por las nuevas estaciones?.
Valor de la
Crecimiento
Depreciacin
empresa (en
miles $)
4%
6%
8%
15 aos
15 aos
15 aos
669,705
806,391
1,142,621
empresa en
mltiplos de
BCF
59,014
59,014
59,014
11.3
13.7
19.4