Chapter 9

The Binomial Expansion

The Binomial and Normal Distribution
Objectives:

The Binomial Expansion

o To learn the basic concepts of Binomial Expansion
o To offer mastery on the certain topic

The Binomial and Normal Distribution

o To learn the fundamentals of Binomial and Normal Distribution
o To learn the application of the previous topic (Binomial Expansion) to the Binomial
Distribution
o To differentiate Binomial Distribution from Normal Distribution
o To apply the topics we learned on Psychology

Description:
TITLE: BINOMIAL EXPANSION
Binomial Theorem
Definition
- a formula for finding any power of a binomial without multiplying at length
Formula:

Binomial Expansion
For any power of n, the binomial (a + x) can be expanded.

This is particularly useful when x is very much less than a so that the first few terms provide a good
approximation of the value of the expression. There will always be n + 1 terms and general form is:

Theres an easier way for those who cant remember clearly the formula of the Binomial Theorem!
Notice that the power on each term on the expansion always added up to whatever n was, and that the
terms were counted up from zero to n.
For example, lets use the equation (3x 2)10, the powers on every term of the expansion will add up to
10, and the powers on the terms will increment by counting up from zero to 10.

(3x 2)10 = 10C0 (3x)100(2)0 + 10C1 (3x)101(2)1 + 10C2 (3x)102(2)2

+ 10C3 (3x)103(2)3 + 10C4 (3x)104(2)4 + 10C5 (3x)105(2)5
+ 10C6 (3x)106(2)6 + 10C7 (3x)107(2)7 + 10C8 (3x)108(2)8
+ 10C9 (3x)109(2)9 + 10C10 (3x)1010(2)10
Note how the highlighted counter number counts up from zero to 10, with the factors on the ends of
each term having the counter number, and the factor in the middle having the counter number
subtracted from 10. This pattern is all you really need to know about the Binomial Theorem; this pattern
is how it works.

Recall that the factorial notation "n!" means " the product of all the whole numbers between 1 and n",
so, for instance, 6! = 123456. Then the notation "10C7" (often pronounced as "ten, choose seven")
means:

More examples
Expand (x2 + 3)6

(x2 + 3)6 = 6C0 (x2)6(3)0 + 6C1(x2)5(3)1 + 6C2 (x2)4(3)2 + 6C3 (x2)3(3)3

+ 6C4 (x2)2(3)4 + 6C5 (x2)1(3)5 + 6C6 (x2)0(3)6
Then simplifying gives me

(1)(x12)(1) + (6)(x10)(3) + (15)(x8)(9) + (20)(x6)(27)

+ (15)(x4)(81) + (6)(x2)(243) + (1)(1)(729)

= x12 + 18x10 + 135x8 + 540x6 + 1215x4 + 1458x2 + 729

Expand (2x 5y)7

(2x 5y)7 = 7C0 (2x)7(5y)0 + 7C1 (2x)6(5y)1 + 7C2 (2x)5(5y)2

+ 7C3 (2x)4(5y)3 + 7C4 (2x)3(5y)4 + 7C5 (2x)2(5y)5
+ 7C6 (2x)1(5y)6 + 7C7 (2x)0(5y)7
Then simplifying gives me:

Copyright Elizabeth Stapel 1999-2009 All Rights Reserved

(1)(128x7)(1) + (7)(64x6)(5y) + (21)(32x5)(25y2) + (35)(16x4)(125y3)

+ (35)(8x3)(625y4) + (21)(4x2)(3125y5) + (7)(2x)(15625y6)
+ (1)(1)(78125y7)
= 128x7 2240x6y + 16800x5y2 70000x4y3 + 175000x3y4 262500x2y5
+ 218750xy6 78125y7

Sources:
http://www.purplemath.com/modules/binomial.htm
http://www.purplemath.com/modules/binomial2.htm

TITLE: BINOMIAL AND NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

Normal Distribution

Normal Distribution
Data can be "distributed" (spread out) in different ways.
It can be spread out
more on the left

Or more on the right

Or it can be all jumbled up

But there are many cases where the data tends to be around a
central value with no bias left or right, and it gets close to a
"Normal Distribution" like this:

A Normal Distribution
The "Bell Curve" is a Normal Distribution.
And the yellow histogram shows some data that
follows it closely, but not perfectly (which is usual).

It is often called a "Bell Curve"

because it looks like a bell.

Many things closely follow a Normal Distribution:

heights of people

size of things produced by machines

errors in measurements

blood pressure

marks on a test

We say the data is "normally distributed":

The Normal Distribution has:

mean = median = mode

symmetry about the center

50% of values less than the mean

and 50% greater than the mean

Quincunx
You can see a normal distribution being created by
random chance!
It is called the Quincunx and it is an amazing
machine.
Have a play with it!

Standard Deviations
The Standard Deviation is a measure of how spread out
numbers are (read that page for details on how to calculate it).
When we calculate the standard deviation we find that
(generally):

68% of values are within

1 standard deviation of the
mean

95% of values are within

2 standard deviations of the
mean

99.7% of values are within

3 standard deviations of the

mean

Example: 95% of students at school are

between 1.1m and 1.7m tall.
Assuming this data is normally distributed can you calculate
the mean and standard deviation?
The mean is halfway between 1.1m and 1.7m:

Mean = (1.1m + 1.7m) / 2 = 1.4m

95% is 2 standard deviations either side of the mean (a total of 4
standard deviations) so:

1 standard deviation = (1.7m-1.1m) / 4

= 0.6m / 4
= 0.15m
And this is the result:

It is good to know the standard deviation, because we can say

that any value is:

likely to be within 1 standard deviation (68 out of 100 should

be)

very likely to be within 2 standard deviations (95 out of 100

should be)

almost certainly within 3 standard deviations (997 out of

1000 should be)

Standard Scores
The number of standard deviations from the mean is also
called the "Standard Score", "sigma" or "z-score". Get used to
those words!

Example: In that same school one of your friends is

1.85m tall
You can see on the bell curve that 1.85m is 3
standard deviations from the mean of 1.4, so:

Your friend's height has a "z-score" of

3.0

It is also possible to calculate how many standard deviations

1.85 is from the mean
How far is 1.85 from the mean?
It is 1.85 - 1.4 = 0.45m from the mean
How many standard deviations is that? The standard deviation is
0.15m, so:
0.45m / 0.15m = 3 standard deviations
So to convert a value to a Standard Score ("z-score"):

first subtract the mean,

then divide by the Standard Deviation

And doing that is called "Standardizing":

We can take any Normal Distribution and convert it to The

Standard Normal Distribution.

Example: Travel Time

A survey of daily travel time had these results (in minutes):
26, 33, 65, 28, 34, 55, 25, 44, 50, 36, 26, 37, 43, 62, 35, 38, 45,
32, 28, 34
The Mean is 38.8 minutes, and the Standard Deviation is
11.4 minutes (you can copy and paste the values into
the Standard Deviation Calculator if you want).
Convert the values to z-scores ("standard scores").

To convert 26:

first subtract the mean: 26 - 38.8 = -12.8,

then divide by the Standard Deviation: -12.8/11.4
= -1.12
So 26 is -1.12 Standard Deviations from the Mean

Here are the first three conversions

Original Value

Calculation

Standard Score

(z-score)
26

(26-38.8) / 11.4 =

-1.12

33

(33-38.8) / 11.4 =

-0.51

65

(65-38.8) / 11.4 =

+2.30

...

...

...

And here they are graphically:

You can calculate the rest of the z-scores yourself!

Here is the formula for z-score that we have been using:

z is the "z-score" (Standard Score)

x is the value to be standardized

is the mean

is the standard deviation

Why Standardize ... ?

It can help us make decisions about our data.

Example: Professor Willoughby is marking a test.

Here are the students results (out of 60 points):
20, 15, 26, 32, 18, 28, 35, 14, 26, 22, 17
Most students didn't even get 30 out of 60, and most will fail.
The test must have been really hard, so the Prof decides to
Standardize all the scores and only fail people 1 standard
deviation below the mean.
The Mean is 23, and the Standard Deviation is 6.6, and these
are the Standard Scores:
-0.45, -1.21 , 0.45, 1.36, -0.76, 0.76, 1.82, -1.36, 0.45, -0.15, 0.91
Only 2 students will fail (the ones who scored 15 and 14 on the
test)

It also makes life easier because we only need one table

(the Standard Normal Distribution Table ), rather than doing
calculations individually for each value of mean and standard
deviation.

In More Detail
Here is the Standard Normal Distribution with percentages for
every half of a standard deviation, and cumulative
percentages:

Example: Your score in a recent test was 0.5 standard

deviations above the average, how many people
scored lower than you did?

Between 0 and 0.5 is 19.1%

Less than 0 is 50% (left half of the curve)

So the total less than you is:

50% + 19.1% = 69.1%

In theory 69.1% scored less than you did (but with real data
the percentage may be different)

A Practical Example: Your company packages

sugar in 1 kg bags.
When you weigh a sample of bags you get these results:

1007g, 1032g, 1002g, 983g, 1004g, ... (a hundred

measurements)

Mean = 1010g

Standard Deviation = 20g

Some values are less than 1000g ... can you fix that?
The normal distribution of your measurements looks like this:

31% of the bags are less than 1000g,

which is cheating the customer!
It is a random thing, so we can't stop bags having less than
1000g, but we can try to reduce it a lot.
Let's adjust the machine so that 1000g is:

at 3 standard deviations:
From the big bell curve above we see that 0.1% are less. But
maybe that is too small.

at 2.5 standard deviations:

Below 3 is 0.1% and between 3 and 2.5 standard deviations is
0.5%, together that is 0.1% + 0.5% = 0.6% (a good choice I
think)

So let us adjust the machine to have 1000g at 2.5 standard

deviations from the mean.

Now, we can adjust it to:

increase the amount of sugar in each bag (which changes the

mean), or

make it more accurate (which reduces the standard deviation)

Let us try both.

ADJUST THE MEAN AMOUNT IN EACH BAG

The standard deviation is 20g, and we need 2.5 of them:

2.5 20g = 50g

So the machine should average 1050g, like this:

ADJUST THE ACCURACY OF THE MACHINE

Or we can keep the same mean (of 1010g), but then we need 2.5
standard deviations to be equal to 10g:

10g / 2.5 = 4g
So the standard deviation should be 4g, like this:

Source/s:
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html

Binomial Distribution

The Binomial Distribution

"Bi" means "two" (like a bicycle has two wheels) ...
... so this is about things with two results.

Tossing a Coin:

Did we get Heads (H) or

Tails (T)

We say the probability of the coin landing H is

And the probability of the coin landing T is

Throwing a Die:

Did we get a four ... ?

... or not?

We say the probability of a four is 1/6 (one of the six faces is a

four).
And the probability of not four is 5/6 (five of the six faces are
not a four)

Let's Toss a Coin!

Toss a fair coin three times ... what is the chance of getting two
Heads?
We will use these terms:

Outcome: the result of three coin tosses

Event: "Two Heads" out of three coin tosses

Tosing a coin three times could get any one of these outcomes
(H is for heads and T for Tails):

HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
THT
TTH
TTT

Which outcomes do we want?

"Two Heads" could be in any order: "HHT", "THH" and "HTH" all
have two Heads (and one Tail).

So 3 of the outcomes produce "Two Heads".

What is the probability of each outcome?

Each outcome is equally likely, and there are 8 of them. So each
has a probability of 1/8
So the probability of event "Two Heads" is:
Number of
outcomes we want

Probability of
each outcome

1/8

= 3/8

Let's Calculate Them All:

The calculations are (P means "Probability of"):

P(Three Heads) = P(HHH) = 1/8

P(Two Heads) = P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH) = 1/8 + 1/8 +

1/8 = 3/8

P(One Head) = P(HTT) + P(THT) + P(TTH) = 1/8 + 1/8 + 1/8

= 3/8

P(Zero Heads) = P(TTT) = 1/8

We can write this in terms of a Random Variable , X, = "The

number of Heads from 3 tosses of a coin":

P(X = 3) = 1/8

P(X = 2) = 3/8

P(X = 1) = 3/8

P(X = 0) = 1/8

And we can also draw a Bar Graph :

It is symmetrical!

Making a Formula
Now ... what are the chances of 5 heads in 9 tosses ... to list all
outcomes (512) would take a long time!
So let's make a formula.

In our previous example, how could we get the values 1, 3, 3 and

1?

They are actually in the third row

of Pascals Triangle ... !

Can we make them using a formula?

Sure we can, and here it is:

n = total number

k = number we want

It is often called "n choose k" and you can read more
about it at Combinations and Permutations .
Note: the "!" means " factorial ", for example 4! = 1234 =
24

Let's use it:

Example: 3 tosses getting 2 Heads

We have n=3 and k=2

n!

3!
=

k!(n-k)!

321
=

2!(3-2)!

=3
21 1

So there are 3 outcomes for "2 Heads"

(We knew that already, but now we have a formula for it.)

Let's use it for a harder question:

Example: what are the chances of 5 heads in 9

tosses?
We have n=9 and k=5
n!

9!
=

k!(n-k)!

987654321
=

5!(9-5)!

= 126
54321 4321

And for 9 tosses there are 29 = 512 total outcomes, so we get the
probability:

Number of
outcomes we want

Probability of
each outcome

126

126
=

512

126
P(X=5) =

63
=

512

512

= 0.24609375
256

About a 25% chance.

(Easier than listing them all.)

Bias!
So far the chances of success or failure have been equally
likely.
But what if the coins are biased (land more on one side than
another) or choices are not 50/50.

Example: You sell sandwiches. 70% of people choose

chicken, the rest choose pork.
What is the probability of selling 2 chicken sandwiches
to the next 3 customers?
This is just like the heads and tails example, but with 70/30
instead of 50/50.
Let's draw a tree diagram :

The "Two Chicken" cases are highlighted.

Notice that the probabilities for "two chickens" all work out to
be 0.147 , because we are multiplying two 0.7s and one 0.3 in
each case.

Can we get the 0.147 from a formula? What we want is "two

0.7s and one 0.3"

0.7 is the probability of each choice we want, call it p

2 is the number of choices we want, call it k

Probability of "choices we want" (two chickens) is: pk

And

The probability of the opposite choice is: 1-p

The total number of choices is: n

The number of opposite choices is: n-k

Probability of "opposite choices" (one pork) is: (1-p)(nk)

So all choices together is:

pk(1-p)(n-k)

Example: (continued)

p = 0.7 (chance of chicken)

n=3

k=2

So we get:

pk(1-p)(n-k) = 0.72(1-0.7)(3-2) = 0.72(0.3)(1) = 0.7 0.7

0.3 = 0.147

which is the probability of each outcome.

And the total number of those outcomes is:

n!

3!

321

=
k!(n-k)!

=
2!(3-2)!

=3
21 1

And we get:
Number of
outcomes we want

Probability of
each outcome

0.147

= 0.441

So the probability of event "2 people out of 3 choose chicken"

= 0.441

OK. That was a lot of work for something we knew already, but
now we can answer harder questions.

Example: You say "70% choose chicken, so 7 of the

next 10 customers should choose chicken" ... what
are the chances you are right?

p = 0.7

n = 10

k=7

So we get:

pk(1-p)(n-k) = 0.77(1-0.7)(10-7) =
0.77(0.3)(3) = 0.0022235661
That is the probability of each outcome.

And the total number of those outcomes is:

n!

10!
=

k!(n-k)!

1098
=

7!(10-7)!

= 120
321

And we get:
Number of
outcomes we want

Probability of
each outcome

120

0.0022235661 = 0.266827932

In fact the probability of 7 out of 10 choosing chicken is only

about 27%

Moral of the story: even though the long-run average is 70%,

don't expect 7 out of the next 10.

Putting it Together
Now we know how to calculate how many:
n!
k!(n-k)!
And the probability of each:
pk(1-p)(n-k)
We can multiply them together:
Probability of k out of n ways:

n!
P(k out of n) =

pk(1-p)(n-k)

k!(n-k)!

The General Binomial Probability Formula

Important Notes:

The trials are independent,

There are only two possible outcomes at each trial,

The probability of "success" at each trial is constant.

Quincunx

Have a play with the Quincunx (then read Quincunx Explained )

to see the Binomial Distribution in action.

Throw the Die

A fair die is thrown four times. Calculate the probabilities of
getting:

0 Twos

1 Two

2 Twos

3 Twos

4 Twos

In this case n=4, p = P(Two) = 1/6

X is the Random Variable Number of Twos from four throws.
Substitute x = 0 to 4 into the formula:
n!
P(k out of n) =
k!(n-k)!
Like this (to 4 decimal places):

pk(1-p)(n-k)

P(X = 0) = (4!/0!4!) (1/6)0(5/6)4 = 1 1 (5/6)4 = 0.4823

P(X = 1) = (4!/1!3!) (1/6)1(5/6)3 = 4 (1/6) (5/6)3 =

0.3858

P(X = 2) = (4!/2!2!) (1/6)2(5/6)2 = 6 (1/6)2 (5/6)2 =

0.1157

P(X = 3) = (4!/3!1!) (1/6)3(5/6)1 = 4 (1/6)3 (5/6) =

0.0154

P(X = 4) = (4!/4!0!) (1/6)4(5/6)0 = 1 (1/6)4 1 = 0.0008

Summary: "for the 4 throws, there is a 48% chance of no twos,

39% chance of 1 two, 12% chance of 2 twos, 1.5% chance of 3
twos, and a tiny 0.08% chance of all throws being a two (but it
still could happen!)"
This time the Bar Graph is not symmetrical:

It is not symmetrical!
It is skewed because p is not 0.5

Sports Bikes
Your company makes sports bikes. 90% pass final inspection
(and 10% fail and need to be fixed).
What is the expected Mean and Variance of the 4 next
inspections?
First, let's calculate all probabilities.

n = 4,

p = P(Pass) = 0.9

X is the Random Variable "Number of passes from four

inspections".
Substitute x = 0 to 4 into the formula:
n!
P(k out of n) =
k!(n-k)!
Like this:

pk(1-p)(n-k)

P(X = 0) = (4!/0!4!) 0.900.14 = 1 1 0.0001 = 0.0001

P(X = 1) = (4!/1!3!) 0.910.13 = 4 0.9 0.001 = 0.0036

P(X = 2) = (4!/2!2!) 0.920.12 = 6 0.81 0.01 = 0.0486

P(X = 3) = (4!/3!2!) 0.930.11 = 4 0.729 0.1 = 0.2916

P(X = 4) = (4!/4!0!) 0.940.10 = 1 0.6561 1 = 0.6561

Summary: "for the 4 next bikes, there is a tiny 0.01% chance of

no passes, 0.36% chance of 1 pass, 5% chance of 2 passes, 29%
chance of 3 passes, and a whopping 66% chance they all pass
the inspection."

Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation

Let's calculate the Mean , Variance and Standard Deviation for
the Sports Bike inspections.
There are (relatively) simple formulas for them. They are a little
hard to prove, but they do work!
The mean, or "expected value", is:

= np
For the sports bikes:

= 4 0.9 = 3.6

So we would expect 3.6 bikes (out of 4) to pass the inspection.

Makes sense really ... 0.9 chance for each bike times 4 bikes
equals 3.6
The formula for Variance is:

Variance: 2 = np(1-p)
And Standard Deviation is the square root of variance:

= (np(1-p))
For the sports bikes:

Variance: 2 = 4 0.9 0.1 = 0.36

Standard Deviation is:

= (0.36) = 0.6

Note: we could also calculate them manually, by making a table

like this:
X P(X)

X P(X) X2 P(X)

0 0.0001 0

1 0.0036 0.0036

0.0036

2 0.0486 0.0972

0.1944

3 0.2916 0.8748

2.6244

4 0.6561 2.6244

10.4976

SUM:

3.6

13.32

The mean is the Sum of (X P(X)):

= 3.6
The variance is the Sum of (X2 P(X)) minus Mean2:

Variance: 2 = 13.32 3.62 = 0.36

Standard Deviation is:

= (0.36) = 0.6
And we got the same results as before (yay!)

Summary
The General Binomial Probability Formula
n!
pk(1-p)(n-k)

P(k out of n) =
k!(n-k)!

Mean value of X: = np
Variance of X: 2 = np(1-p)
Standard Deviation of X: = (np(1-p))

Source/s:
http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/binomial-distribution.html