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This Excel workbook (or add-in) builds a simplified AHP model with Monte Carlo simulation. Use it and
be amazed. :)
The add-in will work with Excel 2007 and 2010.
Enjoy!
Installation
The package includes two Excel files:
1. AHP Monte Carlo.xlsm: A standalone workbook with the custom ribbon tab and buttons. You can
use this to create a new model without having to install the macro permanently.
2. AHP Monte Carlo.xlam: An add-in for Excel that adds the custom ribbon tab to Excel
permanently--it will be available whenever you open Excel.
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If Excel starts crashing or running slow after you've installed the add-in (or if you just don't want it in
Excel all the time), do the following:
1. In Excel, click on the Office button, choose Excel Options (or Options in Excel 2010)
2. Select Add-ins from the left sidebar and click on "Go" next to the the Manage: Excel Add-ins
dialog
3. Uncheck the AHP Monte Carlo add-in in the list
4. You're done!
Summary
Thomas Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a well known framework for operations and
decision analysis. The AHP allows a decision maker to easily decompose a difficult decision into its
component parts and assign weights and rankings to each aspect of the problem. By (1) identifying a
decision's objectives and alternatives, (2) weighing each of the objectives against each other in a
pairwise table, and (3) ranking each of the alternatives in relation to each objective, a decision maker
can create a robust and powerful model for decision analysis. An AHP model can be enhanced by
using random "fuzzy" values rather than total averages, which gives the final model additional
explanatory power, as these fuzzy weights and rankings can be used in a series of Monte Carlo trials.
While an AHP + Monte Carlo model is a fantastic tool for decision analysis, building the model with
Excel is relatively time consuming. Pairwise tables that calculate the sumproduct, normalized values,
averages, standard deviations, and random inverse normal distributions require dozens of complicated
formulas and extensive formatting. More time can often be spent actually building an AHP + Monte
Carlo model than analyzing the model's results.
"AHP + Monte Carlo" is a VBA add-in that automates the majority of the mundane mechanics behind
building an AHP + Monte Carlo model in Excel. Users can now build complicated decision support
models by simply filling out a series of forms. Instead of spending time repeatedly setting up difficult
formulas, users can focus on the actual dynamics of comparing their objectives and alternatives and
making better decisions in general.
According to a Microsoft KB entry, the solution for this is to search your hard drive for *.exd and
delete all occurrences. All the necessary .exd files will be recreated automatically the next time you
open Excel and run the marco.
Alternatively, open Command Prompt and type these two commands:
CD \Documents and Settings
DEL /S /A:H /A:-H *.EXD
License
https://github.com/andrewheiss/AHP-Monte-Carlo
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AHP + Monte Carlo is free and open source software and is provided under the MIT license
Copyright (C) 2011 Andrew Heiss
Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and
associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including
without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell
copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to
the following conditions:
The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial
portions of the Software.
THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR
IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY,
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE
AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER
LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM,
OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN
THE SOFTWARE.
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