More troops, please

Oct 10th 2003

Two years after Americas attack on al-Qaeda and the Taliban, Afghanistans
provinces are still a mess. NATO aims to send peacekeepers outside Kabul, but it
will have to send large numbers to make any difference
ARE events in Afghanistan going well, or badly? Two years after America began its postSeptember 11th bombing raids, optimists have plenty to point to. Countless al-Qaeda
and Taliban fighters have been killed or capturedthough not, so far as is known, alQaedas head, Osama bin Laden, or the Talibans supreme leader, Mullah Omar.
Afghanistan has a functioning interim government headed by an internationally
respected president, Hamid Karzai. In Kabul, the booming capital of around 3m people,
many women have shed their once-required burqas and go around without fear.
In the provinces, however, the story is rather different. Attacks on humanitarian workers
have increased to one a day on average, according to an official at CARE, an aid
agency. The central government has little control and, outside the capital, factional
fighting has worsened. An especially violent clash occurred this week. At least 60 Afghan
fighters were killed in the north when forces led by an ethnic Uzbek clashed with rival
forces commanded by an ethnic Tajik; a ceasefire was agreed on Thursday. Moreover,
the ravaged Taliban and al-Qaeda forces appear to be regrouping, especially near or
across the border with Pakistan. On Tuesday, Zalmay Khalilzad, Americas special envoy
to Afghanistan, warned of possible spectacular attacks against the reconstruction
efforts.
Stabilising remote parts of Afghanistan was never going to be easy. But it has not helped
that the international peacekeeping force has essentially ceded the territory to local
warlords. The 5,500-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) patrols only
Kabul. America has thousands more troops throughout Afghanistan. They have tried to
stabilise the south, but spend much of their time hunting down al-Qaeda and Taliban
remnants and neglecting locals day-to-day security needs. Afghanistan, the United
Nations and Japan recently signed an agreement to demobilise 100,000 of the warlords
fighters in the provincesa classic case of wishful thinking.
America is well aware of the problem. As in Iraq, it has leaned on the locals to do their
bit. Much of the recently-proposed $1.2 billion in extra spending on Afghanistan would go
towards helping Mr Karzais government boost security outside Kabul, according to the
New York Times. A new, multi-ethnic Afghan army is being trainedthough at a
noticeably slower pace than its counterpart in Iraq.
Ideally, ISAF would step in to the breach. This week the North Atlantic Treaty
Organisation (NATO), which leads ISAF, approved in principle the extension of its
peacekeeping forces outside the capital. Germany, which is eager to mend its fractured
relations with America, has eagerly backed the proposal (which Mr Karzai has long
begged for). It wants to send 450 German peacekeepers to Kunduz, a region in the
north, to help with reconstruction efforts. Expanding NATOs reach outside Kabul would
require the UN Security Councils approval; Germany has already drafted a resolution,
which may be passed this month.

All well and good. However, a few hundred peacekeepers in a single province will have
little effect. NATO leaders say Germanys move may pave the way for other small
military units (New Zealand, America and Britain already have similar forces operating,
though not under NATO). But lots more troops are needed.
The political will seems to be there. At a NATO meeting in Colorado this week, Americas
defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, said: Weve always favoured an expansion
outside of Kabul. His words were echoed by NATOs secretary-general, George
Robertson. The trouble is a lack of manpower and money. America has around 140,000
overstretched troops in Iraq and cannot spare many more for Afghanistan. This week it
eagerly snapped up an offer from Serbia and Montenegro to contribute up to 1,000
troops to Operation Enduring Freedom, a Taliban-hunting operation that is separate
from ISAF. Rounding up more troops from other NATO countries is made harder by their
commitments in the Balkans and Africa.
Of course, security is not the only worry for Afghanistan. The coming year will be a
crucial one politically: a draft constitution will be considered by an assembly in
December (two months late), and presidential elections are planned for next year. Mr
Karzai has said he intends to run. He may well win, but the politicking will re-expose the
countrys ethnic divisions. And America must again become closely involved.
Preoccupied with Iraq, it has put Afghanistan on a back burner in the past year. But, if for
no other, more selfless reason, President George Bush will want to point to Afghanistan
as a success story as Americas presidential elections approach.