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SYNOPSIS
ON
Evaluate and quantify possible effects on the market size and benefits to the
nation of the SECA program, considering the impact on both diesel-fueled
SOFC technology and CIE technology.
To focus the analysis, the report concentrates on the following potential SOFC
applications:
No. 4 Diesel Fuel - A heavy distillate fuel, or a blend of distillate and residual
oil, for low- and medium-speed diesel engines in non-automotive
applications involving predominantly constant speed and load.
In this report we will further focus on No. 2 diesel, since it is by far the most
common type of diesel fuel, and hence the diesel fuel grade of most interest to
fuel cell developers.
Since the 1980s, diesel fuel specifications have increasingly been tightened to meet
environmental objectives, controlling concentrations of major fuel constituents
(aromatics and polyaromatics), as well as impurities (mainly sulfur and nitrogen.)
The tighter fuel specifications and accompanying engine specifications have however
been deemed insufficient to achieve the environmental objectives and hence many
countries continue to tighten specifications. Historically, the emissions from diesel
engines have been much less stringently regulated than those from gasoline engines. This
difference results from a number of factors, including the technical difficulty in reducing
emissions of particulate matter and nitrogen oxides from diesels and the recognition by
regulators that diesel engines are highly efficient when compared with gasoline engines.
However, as many regions around the world continue to struggle
to meet basic ambient air quality standards, and as emissions reduction from
gasoline engines and other sources has been pushed, emissions standards for
diesel engines is receiving renewed attention. Most countries are now proposing
stringent new regulations which would substantially close the gap in emissions
standards between diesel and gasoline engines.
After 2007, proposed Tier 4 EPA regulations would require non-road diesel
to comply with the same specifications that currently apply to on-road diesel
fuel (500 ppm sulfur limit);
After 2010, proposed Tier 4 EPA regulations would require non-road diesel
fuel to comply with the same specifications as on-road ULSD, required for
on-road applications after 2006 (limit 15 ppm sulfur).
Military
1%
Residential
11%
Commercial
6%
Industrial
4%
Oil Company
1%
Farm
6%
Electric Power
3%
On-Highway Diesel
55%
Railroad
5%
Vessel Bunkering
4%
Figure 2-1 US Annual Fuel Oil Consumption in 2001 (Source EIA [18])
Table 2-1.) As can be seen, small refiners are allowed to produce sulfur with
higher aromatics content but must still meet the same sulfur content as large
refiners;
ASTM
Test
Method
CARB General
Reference
Fuel
Specifications
CARB Small
Refiner
Reference
Fuel
Specifications
U.S. Federal
Specifications
Environmental
Specifications
Sulfur Content (ppm,
Wt)
D2622-94
500 max
500 max
500 max
Aromatic Hydrocarbon
Content (Vol %)
D5186-96
10% max
20% max
35% max
Polycyclic Aromatic
Hydrocarbon Content
(Wt %)
D5186-96
1.4% max
4% max
Not specified
10
90
Not specified
48 min
47 min
40 min
Gravity, API
D287-82
33-39
33-39
33-39
D445-83
2.0-4.1
2.0-4.1
2.0-4.1
D93-80
130
130
130
Distillation, F
D86-96
IBP
340-420
340-420
340-420
10% Rec.
400-490
400-490
400-490
50% Rec.
470-560
470-560
470-560
90% Rec.
550-610
550-610
550-610
EP
580-660
580-660
580-660
Since the introduction of these fuels, California diesel fuel has been substantially
cleaner than average U.S. fuel (Table 2-2.) As many refiners have chose to
produce and prove alternative diesel fuel formulations, aromatics content in
California is higher than that specified in the reference fuel standards. This is offset by substantially lower sulfur content. It is noteworthy that currently an
estimated 20% of Californias fuel already had less than 15 ppm sulfur (this
includes gasoline.) In addition to the trade-offs made in producing alternative
diesel fuel formulations, natural overshoot is also partially responsible for the
fact that actual sulfur levels are lower than the regulated limits
Sulfur Specifications
By 2010, diesel fuel sulfur levels will be reduced to 10 to 15 ppm in the U.S., Europe
and Japan (Figure 2-2.) Starting in 2006, the U.S. and Canada will ramp-down levels
rapidly from current levels (500 ppm) with a goal of reaching 15 ppm in 2008. EU
standards will be reduced from the current 350 ppm to 10 ppm in the period between
2004 and 2010 (including an intermediate 50 ppm level required in 2006.) It is also
especially noteworthy that such specifications will likely apply equally to on-road
and non-road use of diesel fuel, whereas today non-road diesel engines are often
exempted from the current specifications and regulations for on-road diesels.
3,500 10,000 3,000
7,000
Diesel Sulfur (ppm) Trends
in Various Countries
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
Sulfur (ppm)
10,000
500
2002
2005
50
15
15
15
2008
ia
10
2011
C
(
a
a
ic
x
a
C
y
C
n
B
hA
t
u
a
o
S
Many of the other countries in the world with high diesel consumption, such as
China, India, and Russia, will move to standards similar to those now in place in
the U.S. and Europe. Some of these countries, especially in the Far East, are
currently contemplating a more drastic ratcheting down of standards which
would bring them on par with the U.S. and Europe by 2010.
400
EU
350
Sweden
300
Finland / Denmark / UK /
Norway*
Germany
250
200
150
100
50
* Norway is included,
although not an EU
member state
0
0
200
1
0
20
00
2
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
00
2
9
008
2
10
200
20
Marine
marine diesel emissions will be regulated to standards similar to the 2000
standards for on-road diesel. In the U.S., larger (greater than 37 kW or 50 hp)
marine diesel engines are regulated separately. Smaller marine diesel engines
(up to 1,000 kW), of most interest here, operate mostly on 2DF. Larger diesels
operate on number 4 diesel fuel (4DF), while large 2-stroke diesels operate on
residual fuel oil (number 6 or bunker C). While eventually SOFC may compete
with diesels that use these heavier oils, early products will likely not and this
report will focus on the applications where 2DF is used.
Between 2004 and 2007 federal Tier 2 standards will be phased in which will
regulate emissions to:
NOx + THC < 7.2 11.0 g/kWh (7.2 7.5 for recreational vessels)
PM < 0.2 0.5 g/kWh (0.2 0.4 for recreational vessels)
In Europe, standards for marine engines will be the same as those for other nonroad engines.
Concept
Development
0.5 - 3
Basic Feasibility
1-2
Subsystem
Development
1-3
System
Development
2-4
System
Demonstration
1-3
Market Entry
1-3
units on the road [12, 26]. If the projected potential truck market is added to this, it
could roughly quadruple the number of diesel APUs in the US by 2015 (to
approximately 620,000 units). In addition, the truck APUs would have a load factor
of about 0.4 but an activity level of about 2400 hours for long-haul trucks [25, 27].
If, unlike is the case with engines, diesel SOFC turn out to be only marginally
more expensive than gasoline or LPG SOFC, and equally versatile, the market for
diesel SOFC could be much larger, as a many of the current gasoline and LPG
APU users may consider switching to diesel, which they may already be using
for their main engine.
SOFC
US 2007 Regulations
Engine
SOFC
7.01
0.03
5.77
0.03
PM Emissions (g/kWh)
0.60
0.01
0.38
0.01
1518
846
1548
823
17,000
9,480
17,340
9,222
Heat Rate
The cost SOFC APU is expected to be about the same as that of the engine-based
APU for the current technology, assuming that SECAs system cost targets are met.
Without New
Diesel Regulations
Regulations
24345
19998
2057
1274
2.950
2.526
191
207
The total benefits, shown in Table 4-2, track the per unit impacts because the technical
APU market potential of engines and SOFC remains the same with the new diesel
regulations. The absolute reductions achieved in this market are very modest
(about 1% to 2%) compared with overall emissions from non-road diesel engines,
and even less when compared with all diesel engines.
6. Problem Envisaged
The problem emissions benefits of diesel SOFC in the selected four markets is cheap
by up to 40% by the introduction of new diesel regulations, while the energy savings
benefits are increased by up to 15%. These benefits depend on the application and
especially on the engine capacity. The most uncertain portion of the implications of
new diesel regulations for diesel SOFC lies in military applications. Based on current
DOD policies and practices, JP-8 will still be used as the single battlefield fuel
beyond the 2010 timeframe. As no changes in specifications are expected, there will
be a growing discrepancy between JP-8 specifications and those for civilian diesel
fuels. This will mean that by 2010, JP-8 will not be compatible with much of civilian
diesel engine technology or with civilian SOFC technology. As the DOD has
recognized in its desire for the development and adaptation of dual-use technology
by the military, this will likely raise the cost of engines and SOFC for the military, as
they will have to be specially developed for the armed forces. Also, it is not clear
how the military will meet domestic environmental regulations for its operations.
Several groups within the DOD have started to address this challenge.
Because of changes in the classification, some categories see a 90% reduction in
Without New
Diesel Regulations
166,600
128,400
11,500
4,600
7.24
8.23
445
492
The impact of new regulations does not appear to significantly change any
difference O&M cost between diesel SOFC and diesel engines. Operating and
maintenance cost for SOFC would be reduced due to the introduction of
ULSD, mostly because the sulfur cartridge exchange interval will be stretched
by a factor of ten. However, this impact would likely be minor (less than
10%) when compared to the major component of SOFC maintenance: stack
replacement. EPA carried out a relatively detailed analysis of the impact of
proposed regulations on diesel engine operating cost and concluded that the
impact would range from an approximately 10% cost savings for the smallest
systems to an approximately 5% cost increase for somewhat larger systems
that have light duty cycles;
If SECA cost targets are met, gasoline and diesel SOFC may be (practically)
interchangeable with ULSD. Both from a cost and a functionality perspective this
provides a major advantage for SOFC in a number of markets, notably APUs.
Manufactured Cost
System Direct
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Engine
SOFC
Current Standards
Engine
SOFC
2010 Standards
Figure 4-2 Comparison of Equipment Cost for Diesel Engines and SOFC
under Current and 2010 Standards (Projected based on Arthur D. Little
[17] and EPA studies [12]