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Introduction
Exploration and production in deep water (5002000 m [16406560 ft]) and ultradeep
water (>2000 m [6560 ft]) have expanded greatly during the past 15 years, to the point at
which they are now major components of the petroleum industrys annual upstream budget.
Most E&P activity has concentrated in only three areas of the world: the northern Gulf of
Mexico, Brazil, and West Africa. Globally, deep water remains an immature frontier, with
many deepwater sedimentary basins being only lightly explored.
Deepwater discoveries account for less than 5% of the current worldwide total oilequivalent resources1 although this amount is increasing rapidly. These resources are predominantly oil and are concentrated in non-OPEC countries; thus, deep water represents an
important component of the worlds future oil equation. Gas exploration in deep water is
extremely immature, reflecting current infrastructure and economic limitations, but it is also
destined to become a major focus in the future.
Although the global deepwater play was initially restricted to a few large major companies, progressively smaller companies have become involved throughout time. Presently, even
large- or medium-size companies must understand the geologic, engineering, and economic
characteristics of the deepwater play. Generally, smaller companies are exploring in areas
where (1) major infrastructure already exists, and consequently they are able to operate, and/or
(2) they can be a partner with a limited working interest, thus limiting their financial risk while
still exposing them to potentially high rewards.
This chapter presents an overview of exploration and development in deepwater settings.
The first part addresses the critical geologic aspects of global deepwater exploration and production by summarizing the geologic habitat, productive trends, and potential reserves. The
second part summarizes these characteristics for the past and present frontiers and presents
common themes and concepts that lead to speculation concerning the future of deepwater
frontiers. The third part addresses trends in the technologic and business requirements necessary for exploring and developing deepwater plays. Finally, we briefly summarize the
workflow for explorationists who develop and work deepwater prospects.
This chapter is, in part, an update of previous work (Weimer and Pettingill, 2000; Pettingill and Weimer, 2001, 2002). The chapter employs data compiled from public information
sources and presentations at recent conferences dedicated to deepwater geology, such as Worrall et al. (1999, 2001), Lawrence and Bosman-Smits (2000), and many trade magazines.
The term resources is employed here, rather than reserves, to reflect the fact that not all of the discovered
hydrocarbons have been proven to be economic, and therefore they are not classified as reserves. For all barrel oil equivalents (BOE), the conversion factor employed is 6000 cu. ft. gas = 1 barrel oil or condensate.
2-19
70
Cumulative Gas
60
Cumulative Oil/Cond.
TOC
40
30
BBOE
50
Start
20
10
Ref. List
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
Search
1978
Year
Figure 2-1a. Deep water discovered resources versus time as of end of 2002. (a) oil versus gas.
Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
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70
Cumulative Total Deepwater (500-2000m)
60
40
30
BBOE
50
20
10
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Help
Year
Figure 2-1b. Deep water discovered resources versus time as of end of 2002. (b) Resources (billion
BOE) based on deep water (5002000 m) versus ultra-deep water (>2000 m). Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
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1995 Total:
69% Developed by 2002
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40
1990 Total:
75% Developed by 2002
Start
30
1985 Total:
60% Developed by 2002
BBOE
50
20
2002 Total: 31%
Developed or in
Development
Ref. List
10
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Search
Year
Help
Figure 2-1c. Deep water discovered resources versus time as of end of 2002. (c) Developed versus
undeveloped resources. A significant amount of gas found prior to 1984 remains as stranded
resources. Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
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total consists of 43 million bbl of oil and condensate, and approximately 180 trillion ft3 (tcf) of
gas. Deep water (500200 m [16406560 ft] deep) holds about 85% of the discovered
resources; ultradeep water has about 15% (Figure 2-1b). More than half of this total has been
discovered since 1995; however, only about 31% of the total resources are developed or currently under development and less than 5% have been produced, thereby underscoring the
plays immaturity (Figure 2-1c).
The global deepwater exploration success rate2 was about 10% until 1985, but it has
since averaged approximately 30%, having been driven by remarkable success in the Gulf of
Mexico and West Africa (Figures 2-3, 2-4). Exploration success rates have been highest in
West Africa and lowest in Asia. In the lower Congo Basin, the geologic success rate over the
past few years has exceeded 80%.
Since deepwater drilling started during the late 1970s, 38 giant discoveries (>500 million BOE recoverable) have been made in deep water (Table 2-1; Figure 2-5). Of the 58 giants
of the decade 199099 that were true wildcats, roughly one-third were found in deep water
(Pettingill, 2001). Although the total number of giant fields discovered worldwide in recent
decades has leveled off, the discovery rate of deepwater giants is rapidly increasing. Associated deepwater giant reserves are approximately 66% oil, compared with 36% oil for all giants
of the same time period.
2.
Published reports more often do not distinguish geologic success from economic success. Furthermore, it is
difficult to determine economic viability for recent unappraised deepwater discoveries, which are often far
from infrastructure. These quoted success rates are corrected for obviously uneconomic discoveries, but they
undoubtedly reflect some discoveries that will become economic only after further infrastructure growth or
other fiscal/market changes and others that will ultimately be deemed uneconomic. Therefore, these success
rates are probably intermediate between geologic and economic success. Nonetheless, because most of the
discoveries in the major provinces could probably be developed economically once infrastructure is established and/or contract terms improved, these success rates may be taken as a reasonable indication of economic success (i.e., as a slight overapproximation).
2-21
Total Discovered
78 BBOE
48 BBO + 174 TCF
Mid-Norway
0,8
2.9
3,0
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Faroes
White Zone
W. Shetlands
Scotian &
Jeanne DArc
Sakhalin
So. Caspian
Italy
4.4
3,0
Morocco
11
8,6
Egypt
Search
1.5
3.5
Ref. List
1,8
2.4
Trinidad
US GoM
Tamaulipas
& Campeche
Nigeria
Eq. Guinea
Gabon
Congo
Angola
NW & SE Borneo
Philippines
E. India
Tanzania
NWS & ZOCA
Brazil
Help
18
0.4
Mozambique
Taranaki
6,8
9.6
10,9
S. Africa
17
Recoverable
Resources in BBOE
green=
red =2002
gas
Pettingilloil,
& Weimer
Figure 2-2. Total discovered deep water (>500 m ) recoverable resources per region, announced as of November 2003 (in billion BOE). These resources
include producing reserves, those in development, and technically recoverable resources for which development has not been sanctioned. Major prospective deep and ultradeepwater basins are also shown. Green = oil, red = gas. Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001). Note that the resource estimates
in Figures 2-1a to 2-1c (74 billion BOE) were compiled at the end of 2002; the estimates for Figure 2-2 (78 billion BOE) were compiled in November 2003.
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30
20
10
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0
West
South Gulf of Mediter- Asia
NW
Global
Africa America Mexico ranean Pacific Europe Average
Help
Region
Figure 2-3. Exploration success rate in six primary deep water regions of the world, and global
average. Data from this study and from Harper (1997). Updated from Pettingill and Weimer
(2001).
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Although the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) accounts for
almost 80% of the worlds current oil reserves (BP, 2003), only 17% of the worlds current oil
reserves lie in OPECs deep waters, all in the waters of Nigeria and Indonesia. In contrast,
members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; an international organization comprising 30 member countries from Europe, Asia, the Middle East,
Australia, and North America; see www.oecd.org) account for only 8% of current global oil
reserves but hold 27% of current deepwater oil resources discovered to date (Figures 2-4, 2-5).
The OECD accounts for 73% of the worlds deepwater gas resources reported to date, but only
9% of the current total global gas resources. Therefore, deep water is a frontier with relatively
more resources for the OECD, particularly when we consider the gas fraction of the total deepwater resources.
Ormen Lange
11 TCF
35 Discoveries, 38 BBOE
TOC
Thunderhorse
1.0 BBOE
Mars
570 MMBOE
Tahiti 502 MMBOE
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Roncador
Marlim
Marlim Sul
Albacora
Barracuda
1-ESS-121
3.2 BBOE
2.9 BBOE
2.7 BBOE
964 MMBOE
860 MMBOE
660 MMBOE
>50% oil
red
gas
500 MMBOE
300-600 MMBOE
2.5-14.7 TCF
975
883
725
550
MMBOE
MMBOE
MMBOE
MMBOE
Jansz*
Scarborough
Geryon-Orthrus
Io*
Callirhoe
Chrysaor
20 .0
6.0
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.3
TCF
TCF
TCF
TCF
TCF
TCFE
Figure 2-4. Deep water giant discoveries exceeding 500 million BOE, as of November 2003. The South Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico discoveries consist of
oil and gas; Europe, Asia, and Australia are predominantly gas discoveries. MMBOE is million barrels of oil equivalent; BBOE is billion barrels of oil
equivalent. Data from IHS Energy Group (2003, used with permission) and many published references. Includes data supplied by Petroconsultants SA;
copyright 2003. Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
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Ref. List
Table 2-1. Giant deepwater discoveries (>500 million BOE). Several are not fully appraised and are expected
to change significantly. Includes data supplied by Petroconsultants SA; Copyright 2003.
Basin/
Country
Discovery
name
Discovery
near
Status
WD
(m)
Resource
reference
Gulf of Mexico,
USA
Mars
1989
Producing
1014
IHS, 2003
Gulf of Mexico,
USA
Tahiti
2002
Discovery
1231
IHS, 2003
Gulf of Mexico,
USA
Thunderhorse
1999
Discovery
1963
IHS, 2003
Campos, Brazil
1-ESS-121
2002
Discovery
1426
IHS, 2003
Campos, Brazil
Albacora
1993
Producing
1000
IHS, 2003
Campos, Brazil
Barracuda
1989
Producing
1160
IHS, 2003
Campos, Brazil
Marlim
1985
Producing
853
IHS, 2003
Campos, Brazil
Marlim Sul
1987
Producing
1120
IHS, 2003
Campos, Brazil
Roncador
1996
Producing
1853
IHS, 2003
Santos, Brazil
1-RJS-582
2002
Discovery
1493
IHS, 2003
Santos, Brazil
1-SPS-35
2003
Discovery
7.7 tcf
485
IHS, 2003
Mre, Norway
Ormen Lange
1997
Discovery
886
IHS, 2003
Scarab-Saffron
Complex
1998
Producing
612
IHS, 2003
Simian
1999
Discovery
2.54.0 tcf
579
IHS, 2003;
Upstream,
2002
Lower Congo,
Angola
Dalia
1997
Developing
1360
IHS, 2003
Lower Congo,
Angola
Girassol
1996
Producing
1365
IHS, 2003
Lower Congo,
Angola
Hungo
1998
In development
1202
IHS, 2003
Lower Congo,
Angola
Kissanje
1998
In development
1011
IHS, 2003
Niger Delta,
Nigeria
Agbami
1998
Discovery
1435
IHS, 2003
Niger Delta,
Nigeria
Akpo
2000
Discovery
1366
IHS, 2003
Search
Help
Recoverable
resources
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Table 2-1. (Cont.) Giant deepwater discoveries (>500 million BOE). Several are not fully appraised and are
expected to change significantly. Includes data supplied by Petroconsultants SA; Copyright 2003.
Basin/
Country
Discovery
name
Discovery
near
Status
Recoverable
resources
WD
(m)
Resource
reference
Niger Delta,
Nigeria
Bonga
1995
Developing
1125
IHS, 2003
Niger Delta,
Nigeria
Bonga Southwest
2001
Discovery
1245
IHS, 2003
Niger Delta,
Nigeria
Bosi
1996
Discovery
1424
IHS, 2003
Niger Delta,
Nigeria
Nnwa-Doro
1999
Discovery
4.4 tcf
1283
IHS, 2003
Dhirubhai
2002
Discovery
4.8 tcf
1006
IHS, 2003
W. Palawan,
Philippines
MalampayaCamago
1989
Producing
736
IHS, 2003
Baram (Sabah),
Malaysia
Kikeh
2002
Discovery
1341
IHS, 2003
Bonaparte,
Australia
Sunrise-LoxtonSunset
1975
Discovery
159
IHS, 2003
Browse,
Australia
Brecknock
1979
Discovery
543
IHS, 2003
Carnarvon,
Australia
Callirhoe
2001
Discovery
3.5 tcf
1221
IHS, 2003
Carnarvon,
Australia
Chrysaor
1995
Discovery
806
IHS, 2003
Carnarvon,
Australia
Geryon-Orthrus
1999
Discovery
1231
IHS, 2003
Carnarvon,
Australia
Io
2001
Discovery
included in Jansz
1352
Carnarvon,
Australia
Jansz
2000
Discovery
1321
IHS, 2003
Carnarvon,
Australia
Scarborough
1979
Discovery
6.0 tcf
912
IHS, 2003
Gas
Condensate
Oil
Total:
98 BBOE from 76
Discoveries >500 MMBOE
44%
36%
TOC
20%
Deep Water
Gas
41%
Deep Water
Oil Non-Opec
44%
Start
Ref. List
Confined
Extensional
Contractional
Unconfined
Basin Floor
Mobile
Substrate
Help
Figure 2-5. Giant oil and gas field discoveries of the 1990s (98 billion BOE from 76 discoveries).
Discovered resources versus physical environment (onshore, shallow water: 0500 m, and deep
water: >500 m), and distribution of oil, condensate, and gas. Inset shows distribution of deepwater resources for OPEC, OECD, and the rest of the world. After Pettingill (2001). Reprinted with
permission of SEG.
Non-Mobile
Substrate
Search
Deep Water
Oil Opec
15%
68%
Figure 2-6. Discovered resources versus deepwater basin setting. Classification of mobile substrate and unconfined turbidite settings is adapted from Worrall et al. (1999, 2001). Additional
frontier settings are added here, with corresponding reserves from this study. Note that confined and unconfined are end members, and basins may evolve from one to the other or vary
spatially between end members. A portion of the confined resources are actually in a low-confinement setting (e.g., Marlim, Albacora, Campos Basin, Brazil), as shown on the graph. Updated
from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
2-27
Lower Congo
Campos and Santos
3
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U.S. GoM
Poss. Lower Congo
Nile Delta
Niger Delta
N.E. Borneo
Mahakam Delta
Ref. List
Search
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3. ACTIVE MARGINS
4. BIOGENIC
Nile Delta (partial contribution)
Gulf of Mexico (e.g. Mensa)
Discovered Resources vs.
Source Rock Habitat:
Apennines Foredeep
3. Active Margin
& Other 1%
2B. Pass. Marg.
without Salt,
Marine Deltaic
16%
2A.
Passive Margin,
Post-Salt
Marine
28%
4. Biogenic 2%
1A.
Rift, Pre-Salt
Lacustrine
35%
1B.
Rift, No Salt
(mostly
Marine)
16%
Figure 2-7. Schematic cross-sections illustrating the different petroleum systems for deepwater settings. Each
section shows the relationship of source rocks with structural styles, stratigraphic fill, and migration pathways. 1. Rift source rocks (often lacustrine) (a) with salt deformation: Campos and Santos Basins (Brazil), and
Lower Congo Basin (offshore Angola), (b) basement blocks: northwest Australia, West of Shetlands, and midNorway; 2. Marine source rock (a) early divergent margins source rock: northern Gulf of Mexico, lower
Congo and Nile, (b) Cenozoic divergent margin (Niger Delta, northwest Borneo Mahakam Delta). 3. Active
margins: Apennine foredeep. 4. Biogenic gas: Nile Delta, northern Gulf of Mexico. Inset chart illustrates the
relative amount of discovered resources versus source rock. Modified from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
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Deepwater basins with no mobile substrate that are fed by small rivers have a density of
leads that is about one-half that in basins with mobile substrates, but the lead size is 10 times
as large. Examples of basins that produce from such a setting include (a) West of Shetland
Islands fieldsFoinaven and Schehallion fields, and (b) More and Voring Basins in offshore
middle Norway. The Ormen Lange gas field in the mid-Norwegian Shelf consists of reservoirs
draped over basement structures (Gjelberg et al., 2001) (Figure 2-7). The key aspect in these
kinds of basins is that basement highs help focus petroleum migration. Commonly, the reservoir will occur draped over basement highs.
Nondeepwater-reservoir basins
Help
The final type of deepwater basin contains reservoirs that were not deposited originally
in deep water. For example, the North West Shelf of Australia produces from Jurassic and Cretaceous fluvial-deltaic synrift strata. The overlying postrift section is thin and has subsided
into deep water (>500-m water depth). Examples of shallow-water carbonate reservoirs in
deep water include the Malampaya field, Philippines, and recent Albian discoveries in the
Campos Basin, Brazil. Also, these basins reflect a small portion of production in deep water
(Figure 2-6).
Petroleum systems
The six elements of the petroleum systems of deepwater and ultradeepwater margins are
briefly summarized here. The most common types of petroleum systems found in deep water
are summarized in Figure 2-7.
Reservoirs
To date, most deepwater reserves have been discovered in Cenozoic-age reservoirs,
although there is a modest but growing contribution from Cretaceous reservoirs (Figure 2-8).
Almost 90% of the reserves found, to date, are within deepwater sandstone reservoirs, but
there is a small contribution from shallow-marine and fluvial sandstone reservoirs and a minor
contribution from carbonates. Porosity and permeability in deepwater reservoirs can be excellent (>30% porosity and thousands of md permeability), because many are fed from mature
river systems that drain stable cratons. Furthermore, high porosities are often maintained by
low geothermal gradients (which retard diagenesis) and underconsolidation resulting from
overpressures. These are typical characteristics of deepwater areas downdip of young deltaic
depocenters. Reservoir architecture (connectivity and continuity) ranges from poor to excellent in deepwater sands. In general, high net/gross channel-fill and basin-floor sheet sands
provide excellent reservoirs, whereas low net/gross channel-fill and thin-bed levee reservoirs
can be more difficult to develop economically. Predrill predictive capability for these reservoirs is critical.
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50
40
30
20
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10
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Start
B.
70
Not Published
Neogene-Pleistocene
Paleogene
Cretaceous
Triassic-Jurassic
A.
BBOE
100%
11
Carbonates
75%
50%
91
85
25%
0%
Turbidite
Sandstone
Shallow
Marine &
Fluvial Sst.
200-500
>500
Water Depth (m)
Year
Ref. List
Search
Figure 2-8. (a) Deepwater resources discovered after 1978 plotted versus reservoir age and (b) deepwater
resources versus lithology. Lithology data for 200500 m are from Cook (1999, used with permission); data for
>500 m are from Pettingill and Weimer (2001). Note the differences in reservoir types with the water depths.
Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
Help
Traps
Trap styles vary, and the main trap types of turbidite plays are shown in Figure 2-9. Total
reserves associated with these trap types have yet to be quantified; however, a significant proportion of resources is from fields having a stratigraphic component to their trap. To date,
structural closure is dominant in West Africa, although often the trap volume is defined by the
overprint of stratigraphic pinch-outs and discontinuities. In the salt minibasin plays of the central Gulf of Mexico, combination structural-stratigraphic traps are most common (Pettingill,
1998), whereas in the emerging foldbelt plays, structural trapping is dominant. In the unconfined setting, depositional mounding may create or enhance structural closure (e.g.,
Scarborough discovery; Kirk, 1994). On the other hand, pure stratigraphic traps also occur in
the unconfined setting, where offlapping fan deposits pinch out laterally (e.g., Ram-Powell
field; Clemenceau et al., 2000).
Seals
In the deep-marine depositional environment, adequate top seals are generally present.
Top-seal integrity, on the other hand, is often a serious risk because of overpressures and
crestal faulting. Understanding the relation between reservoir pressure (from both bouyancy
and overpressure), overburden pressure, and rock strength, is critical. In Nigeria, Brunei, and
the northern Gulf of Mexico, some accumulations are more aptly described as imperfect
leaks than as perfect traps. When a component of stratigraphic trapping is required, the presence of a side seal can also introduce risk, especially in the case where the updip axis of a
feeder channel is required to seal. Relatively few fields are documented to have this seal component, although several exist in the northeastern deep Gulf of Mexico.
2-30
A.
Confined Settings
Fault-Related
Rollovers
Unconfined Settings
Shale Diapir
Traps
Fault-Dependent
Stratigraphic Traps
Fault Traps
TOC
Salt Flank Traps
Turtles
(B) Erosional
truncation
Basement
Block
Start
Ref. List
Foldbelt Structures
(may be either
salt- or shalecored)
Search
24
Help
Combination
64%
Structural
26%
Pure
Stratigraphic
10%
1. STRUCTURAL
a. with no stratigraphic overprint
Sand
2. COMBINATION
A`
A`
B`
B
C`
A1
-Stratigraphic variation
(pinchout, erosional,
truncation, diagenesis)
-Structure-dependent
-Structure-dependent
(fault,
diapiric)
(fault,4-way,
4-way,
diapiric)
Sand
B`
C`
AND
-Structural element
-Filled
equal
- elevation
-Filledtoto
equal
- elevation
(often
to to
spill)
(often
spill)
Shale
A`
A
Shale
3. PURE STRATIGRAPHIC
A`
Shale
A`
B`
A`
Sand
B
1
A
-Structure-dependent
(fault, 4-way, diapiric)
(pinchout, erosional
truncation, diagenesis)
B`
Figure 2-9. (a) Schematic diagram showing different trap styles for the deepwater settings. After
Pettingill and Weimer (2001). Reprinted with permission of the Gulf Coast Section SEPM Foundation. (b) Discovered deepwater resources versus the trap categories. Note that total resources
with published trap information is 28 BBOE (about one third of resources discovered), so observations are preliminary. (c) Classification of trap type employed for this study. As defined by this
classification scheme, structural traps have only structural elements (faults, dip-closure, or diaper interface), whereas pure stratigraphic traps depend solely on reservoir discontinuity. Combination traps, however, exist only if both types of elements are in place (examples shown in lower
left of A).
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Source rocks
The potential for source rocks is good in deep water; world-class source rocks have been
found in Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary strata (Figure 2-10). In general, five kinds of source
rocks have been identified for deepwater and ultra deepwater settings: three are oil-prone and
two are gas prone.
Potential oil source rocks for deepwater plays can be either continental or deep-marine
in origin. First, good lacustrine source rocks have been documented in synrift settings, such as
in the Campos Basin of Brazil and in portions of West Africa (Guardado et al., 1990, Teisserenc and Villemin, 1990, Sequeria et al., 1998, Schiefelbein et al., 2000).
Second, deep-marine potential source rocks were deposited during the later stages of
evolution of several of the worlds continental margins and are associated with major transgressions or relative rises (Mitchum et al., 1993; Duval et al., 1998). The present-day
deepwater environment is a continuation of ultradeepwater depths established during the
Mesozoic in most frontier regions of the world (e.g., the Atlantic margins and the Gulf of Mexico). This prolonged period of deposition in bathyal water depths can produce excellent source
rocks, although their efficiency varies through time and space. Along the West African margin,
multiple marine source rocks exist and are progressively younger with movement into deeper
water. Some of these may be considered world class, such as the Akata Shale in Nigeria
(Doust and Omatsola, 1990, Tuttle et al., 1999) and the Iabe/Landana Formations in the lower
Congo Basin (Rummelhart et al., 2001).
35
Gas (BBOE)
Oil & Cond. (BBO/C)
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
pr
u
-J
r
ra
Ju
us
ic
ss
et
Cr
o
ce
Pa
le
e
og
ne
Ne
n
ge
e
B
e
iog
nic
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Generation and migration
Help
Because source rocks in most of the major producing regions have only recently become
mature, timing is often a lower risk in deep water. Migration routes into traps are sometimes
straightforward via adjacent depocenters and faults (Figure 2-7). In other regions, however,
migration can be more problematic. For example, in mobile-substrate basins, there are usually
sufficient faults and piercements to provide adequate vertical migration. However, (paleo-)
fetch relationships and migration conduits can be complicated locally, particularly for those
traps that depend on charge from older grabens or minibasins that do not lie directly underneath. Many of the Cenozoic mobile-substrate deepwater regions are overpressured, with a
dynamic system of fluid trapping and leaking, such that unique conditions are required that
allow oil to migrate into a trap via a fault but not to escape upward. In the relatively unstructured, unconfined setting, vertical oil migration is sometimes impossible.
3.
4.
Multiple large traps in an area tend to lead to the discovery and development of multiple
fields with multiple reservoirs (Figures 2-6, 2-7).
High-rate, high-ultimate-recovery (HRHU) reservoirs are necessary for economic development in deep water (Figure 2-11, and discussion below). Thick net-pay sections are a
prerequisite for success; other geologic properties are also critical contributors. Economics also plays an important role.
A working charge system is required, with the following components: source rocks with
good potential, late generation, and clear migration pathways (Figure 2-7).
Multiple play concepts targeting different trapping styles are necessary for drilling and
testing different kinds of plays. This is important because play concepts can be nearly
identical in different basins, yet one will prove successful in one area and not in another
area of the same basin or in different basins.
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30000
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25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
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10
20
30
40
50
4
Table 2-2. Deepwater discovery ultimate recoverable resources for the major producing regions.
3
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Region
Total
deepwater
resources
Number of
discoveries
Average
discovery
size*
Largest discovery
Reservoir
age
Campos Basin,
Brazil
15.9 million
BOE
45
385 million
BOE
3.2 billion
BOE
Roncador
Cretaceous,
Paleogene,
Miocene
US Gulf of Mexico
15.5 million
BOE
160+
119 million
BOE
1.0 billion
BOE
Thunderhorse
Neogene,
Pleistocene
Lower Congo,
Angola/Congo
10.6 million
BOE
49
216 million
BOE
975 million
BOE
Dalia
Paleogene,
Neogene
Niger Delta,
Nigeria/
Eq. Guinea
8.6 million
BOE
34
308 million
BOE
880 million
BOE
Agbami
Neogene
Borneo
(Mahakam +
Baram), Indonesia/Malaysia
3.9 million
BOE
20
550 million
BOE
Kikeh
Neogene
NW Shelf,
Australia
60.1 tcfe
15
4.6 tcfe
20.0 tcf
Jansz
Jurassic,
Cretaceous
21.0 tcfe
23
0.9 tcfe
4.0 tcf
Simian
Neogene
Mid-Norway (More
+ Voring)
15.3 tcfe
n.m.
13.9 tcf
Ormen Lange
Cretaceous,
Paleocene
traditional suprasalt plays in the ponded minibasin setting, as demonstrated by the discoverysize-versus-play analysis of Rains and Meyers (2001). Nonetheless, the smaller-discoverysize/trap-size observation still holds for the basin as a whole, because the mean of the largest
30 Gulf of Mexico discoveries (250 million BOE) is about equal to the mean of all 35 Lower
Congo discoveries (247 million BOE), and the mean of the largest 19 Lower Congo discoveries (350 million BOE) is less than that of all 19 Campos Basin discoveries (631 million BOE).
3
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Mexico are the best documented HRHU sheet reservoirs, and the amalgamated channels of the
North Sea and West Africa are the best channel-fill examples (Chapter 6 and
Chapter 8).HRHU reservoirs are defined on the basis of economics. Although there are essential geologic conditions that create these kinds of reservoirs, the presence of an amalgamated
sheet sand or amalgamated channel fill does not necessarily guarantee HRHU reservoirs. Reservoir quality, connectivity, temperature, depth, fluid pressure, compaction, and oil quality are
all concerns that must be considered in evaluating HRHU reservoirs. For example, many of the
large discoveries in the Campos Basin, offshore Brazil, would probably not be considered
HRHU reservoirs because of these kinds of constraints (Chapter 8).
Although HRHU is a commonly used term, HRHU reservoirs are not necessary for the
economic completion of deepwater reservoirs. Many sedimentary basins of the world are
mature basins with a well-developed infrastructure (either onshore or offshore). As a consequence, lower rates of production can still be economic.
Ref. List
Help
45 m
10 km
Orman Lange
& Barden:
y d.
all
rti p e
Pa v e l o
r
te
de
af
yr
14 c.
dis
O. Lange:
11 TCF
Scarab-Saffron:
4.5 TCF
Roncador:
3.2 BBO
Marlim Sur: :
. BBOE
1.5
Mars:
700
MMBOE
150 m
ed
Barden:
ck
st
a
Tr
93 m
147 m
ed
lop c. .
e
v
is
de d
er fter
d
a
Un yr
27
Marlim
Leste
Search
Girassol:
883 MMBOE
221 m
Start
Scarborough:
8 TCF
113 m
TOC
Confined
Maenad-OrthusGeryon:
10 TCF?
150 m
Unconfined
30 m
Fa
10 km
Figure 2-12. Deepwater giant fields with field area and net pay (vertical bar) drawn at identical scales. In general, those reservoirs deposited in confined basins have smaller trap areas and larger net pay values than do
reservoirs deposited in unconfined settings. Reservoirs deposited in unconfined settings include Scarborough
(northwestern Australia) and the Marlim complex (Campos Basin, Brazil). Reservoirs deposited in confined
settings include Maenad-Orthus-Geryon (offshore North West Australia), Girassol (offshore Angola), Agbami
(offshore Nigeria), Mars (northern Gulf of Mexico, Ormen Lange and Barden (offshore central Norway),
Roncador (Campos Basin, Brazil), Scarab-Saffron (offshore Nile). Modified from Pettingill and Weimer
(2001).
Seismic imaging
Advances in seismic-reflection imaging have arguably been the most important element
in allowing companies to explore deep water, because seismic imaging often reduces geologic
risk to acceptable levels (Rudolph, 2001). Prestack depth migration (PSDM) of seismic has
become critical for imaging deepwater traps, particularly along steeply dipping salt flanks and
underneath salt. Recently, PSDM was cited as a critical success factor during discovery and
appraisal, because it imaged reservoir architecture and field extent in multistoried channels
that were stratigraphically trapped.
70
DHI-Supported
60
Non-DHI Supported
50
40
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30
83%
Start
20
10
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2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
Year
Figure 2-13. Graph showing the percentage of global deepwater reserves with DHI support versus those lacking DHI support.
Other NonReservoir
8%
Shale / Marl
14%
Ash
6%
Thin or NonReservoir
Sand
15%
Low Sat.
Gas
20%
Low-Sat.
Oil
2%
Clean Wet
Sand
35%
Figure 2-14. Pie diagram showing the relative percentages of failures using DHI in exploration for
deepwater sands. Data from Noble Energy and Rocky Roden.
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2-38
4
60
3
SUCCESS RATE
50
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40
30
20
DHI TECHNOLOGY
APPLICABLE
DHI TECHNOLOGY
NOT APPLICABLE
10
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GEOL.
Search
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ECON.
N=95
SUCCESS
Figure 2-15. Graph showing the global success rate of wildcat wells when drilled by Exxon with
DHI support and without DHI support. After Rudolph (2001). Reprinted with permission of
AAPG and Kurt Rudolph.
100
80
SUCCESS RATE
(%)
60
40
20
GOOD FLAT SPOT
0
MED-LOW DHI
QUALITY (<3)
Figure 2-16. Graph showing the global success rate of wildcat wells identified on flat spots when
drilled by Exxon with DHI support and without DHI support. After Rudolph (2001). Reprinted
with permission of AAPG and Kurt Rudolph.
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2-39
4
100
3
TOC
80
SUCCESS
RATE (%)
60
40
Start
20
POSITIVE AVO
Ref. List
Search
MED-LOW DHI
QUALITY (<3)
Figure 2-17. Graph showing the global success rate of wildcat wells when drilled by Exxon with
AVO support . After Rudolph (2001). Reprinted with permission of AAPG and Kurt Rudolph.
Help
Continued exploration in proven basins
The simplest play with high chances for success in global deep water is one with continued drilling in the proven plays. Some basins with substantial shallow-water production lack
substantial deepwater reserves (Figure 2-18). In some areas, such as southeast Asia, deep
water is moderately leased. Consequently, reserves found to date are modest (Figure 2-19),
partially because of low drilling density. Most of the Asian deepwater plays are gas-prone, and
this has limited drilling to date.
Immediate future success will most likely be from drilling deeper in proven basins,
especially in basins below the mobile substrate. In this case, development infrastructure is
already present, thus reducing the cycle time and lowering development costs. Brazil and the
northern Gulf of Mexico are the two best examples. Source rocks mature below the salt, and
large discoveries have been made in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Thunder Horse, Atlantis, St.
Malo) and in offshore Angola. A few dry holes have been drilled in the Campos Basin below
the autochthonous Aptian salt; however, there is still considerable potential. Good depth-imaging seismic techniques are mandatory for this kind of play to be successful.
79
12
South
Barents
0%
78
24
North
Sakhal in
0% 6
28
4
NW Europe
4%
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12
4.4
3 Nwflnd-
Start
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Scotian
0%
US Gulf of
Mexico
15%
55
J. dArc
0%
0.6
Sicil y
0%
15
4
0.2
11
Trinidad
5%
2.2
0.8
Talara
0%
Niger 10%
R. Muni
0.5
100%
0.5 17
Potigar
0.9
Serg.-Al.
Campos
0.5 78%
Santos
Total ult. reserves 43%
Gabon
(BBOE)
0.3%
DW ult. reserves
(BBOE)
12
1
3.5
24
<0.2
NW Palawan
50%
2
Indus
Mahakam
17%
NW Shelf
29%
L. Congo
48%
8
0.5
16
1.1
NW Borneo
2%
South
Caspi an
0%
0.024
2
Nile 50%
Search
Help
Apennines
1.7
Taranaki
0%
<0.1
Figure 2-18. Map showing deepwater frontier basins with the fraction of the basins ultimate discovered resources found to date in deep water. Updated
from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
k
2-41
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3
15
Africa
South
America
GoM
10
Australia
5
Europe
Asia
200
400
600
800
1000
Figure 2-19. Map showing global deepwater future frontier areas in terms of discovered resources per leased
area. Leased area taken from Cook (1999, used with permission); resource estimates from Pettingill and
Weimer (2001). Asia has had the fewest deepwater wells drilled per area, which may or may not account for
the current low deepwater resource density. Updated from Pettingill and Weimer (2001).
4
3
TOC
17
18
Start
H
4
5
6
7
Search
Help
14
G
Salt
L
15
Ref. List
16
J
19
18
13
12
11
10
Q
R
20
Shale
Figure 2-20. Map showing the global distribution of deepwater basins with mobile substrates: salt (numbers) and shale (letters). See Chapter 15 for
names of basins, discussion of the structural styles, associated traps, and ages of autochthonous salt.
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2-43
3
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Rift/transform/active margins
These kinds of margins have had little exploration to date, but will grow in importance
(e.g., Bird et al., 2001; Nibblelink and Huggard, 2002). The presence of traps and migration
pathways is generally not a problem, because there are abundant faults and traps. An updip
seal and the presence of a working charge system are the main risks in these basins.
Deeper drilling
Drilling deeper has two meanings: (1) drilling deeper in the subsurface and (2) drilling
in deeper water depths. Although current Gulf of Mexico deepwater exploration wells routinely have total depths exceeding 6000 m, relatively few exploration wells in other deepwater
frontiers have drilled beyond 4000 m of total depth. Subsalt objectives occur in several deepwater basins around the globe. However, only the northern Gulf of Mexico has seen deepwater
subsalt drilling, in both turtle trends as well as a subsalt foldbelt (Sumner and Shinol, 2001).
Ultradeepwater frontiers occur along several margins of the world, as shown in Weimer and
Pettingill (2000). This would include ultradeepwater and deeper drilling depths, including subsalt, subdetachment, and subvolcanic targets.
Search
Emerging trends
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Political openings
New opportunities may arise in areas that were previously closed because of monopolies, moratoriums, and boundary disputes. In Brazil, the removal of a monopoly has resulted in
sequential offerings of prospective deepwater areas for licensing. In several West Africa
nations, Egypt, and Indonesia, the opening of new areas during the past decade has led to
2-44
Business and technology trends of deep water: Key learnings and future challenges
3
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many significant discoveries and expanded reserves. In the northeastern deep Gulf of Mexico,
a 10-year leasing moratorium ended in late 2001. The subsequent leasing has already led to
discoveries, although a large portion of the surrounding area remains off limits. Thus, there is
considerable potential for increased deepwater activities, provided that select countries make
their deepwater margins available for exploration.
Business and technology trends of deep water: Key learnings and future
challenges
The deepwater play has a unique set of business and technology issues that push the limits of what geoscientists can do. Companies have learned that they must be innovative to
advance the deepwater play and make it economically viable. The following is a summary of
the key learnings and challenges for the business models and technologic needs for deep and
ultradeep water. This summary is based on presentations by Lawrence and Bosman-Smits
(2000), Weimer et al. (2000), and many public sources in different trade journals, as well as
the authors own opinions. Some of these items represent critical success factors in the managerial aspects of deepwater exploration and production.
Search
Deepwater versus shelf plays
Help
Deep water, in all aspects, is not a simple extension of the petroleum plays that exist on
continental shelves around the world (e.g., northern Gulf of Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil). In several basins, additional marine source rocks are present in deep water that are either not present
or not active under the updip shelfal part of the basin. Trapping styles are usually different,
particularly for basins that have a mobile substrate and/or are associated with salt evacuation
surfaces, and contractional structures become more prevalent; there is also an increased
emphasis on stratigraphic trap components. Deepwater reservoirs are different from those fluvial-deltaic and shallow-marine sands that constitute the bulk of the reservoirs on continental
shelves (Figure 2-21). Although fluvial-deltaic reservoirs on the shelf can have total trap areas
as large or larger than deepwater fields, drainage areas tend to be larger in deepwater reservoirs. For example, in the northern GOM, deltaic traps are generally developed on 320-acre
spacing or less, whereas deepwater reservoirs tend to be developed at 640-acre spacing or
more. However, the reserves per area of individual deepwater fields are considerably larger,
because of larger net pay per area, larger net-to-gross ratio, stacked pays, and/or thick individual sands (Figure 2-21).
All this implies that development planning and facilities are different for deepwater reservoirs. The deepwater reservoir can produce at much higher rates than shallow to marginal
marine reservoirs can, with some individual wells producing in excess of 30,000 bbl/day.
Development scenarios must handle different reservoir geometries and greater thicknesses to
perforate, with fewer slots in platforms with which to develop the fields. Finally, pressure
regimes are radically different in deepwater counterparts of basins and can affect petroleum
migration, trapping, and containment because of relatively shallow development of
overpressure.
1000
18 Deepwater Fields
60 Deltaic Fields
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Shelf
100
(Deltaic
Reservoirs)
Reservoirs)
10
Search
1
Help
10
100
1000
Reserves (MMBOE)
Figure 2-21. Log-log graph showing trap area versus reserves for deltaic and deep water reservoirs for the northern Gulf of Mexico. In general, deepwater reservoirs have higher net/area than
deltaic reservoirs in the same basin (necessary).
k
f
require that the right people be involved and that they work well together. Because of the
extremely high operating costs, industry now considers development and production plans as
part of the exploration workflow. This forward-planning significantly reduces the cycle-time in
developing these kinds of fields.
Most deepwater projects have the traditional risks, such as the presence of a good reservoir, the commerciality of the project, and long-term political stability of an area. A unique
risk in deeper water is marine processesbottom currents, loop currents, eddies, associated
vibrationthat may impact the development facilities. Thus, oceanographers and naval architects will have increasingly important roles in the team. These deep-marine processes all
clearly affect development structures being installed, sometimes adversely.
Business and technology trends of deep water: Key learnings and future challenges
903); as of November 2003, the deepest well was in 3051 m (10,011 ft) of water (Toledo well,
Alaminos Canyon 951). Innovative systems are also being developed for production facilities
and production techniques for these extraordinary water depths. Innovation must continue if
deep water is to be economic.
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Reducing total development costs, including drilling costs, is essential to future success
for the deepwater play. Rig costs are routinely $250,000$400,000/day for the larger drilling
facilities. Significant improvement in drill times (via bits, fluids, pore-pressure prediction,
etc.) and dual-activity drill ships (reducing drilling times by 2030% alone) are two significant
areas in which costs can be reduced. Cheaper and more numerous production wells are necessary for larger fields and for increased ultimate recovery. In some wells, such as those
involving subsalt drilling, the development wells can be extremely expensive because of the
difficulty in predicting pressure regimes below salt and the need to insure the robustness of the
wellbore against the mobility of the salt body over time.
Fast-track development
Fast-track development is becoming critical for many companies, to assure a quicker
return on the enormous up-front cash investment. This direction, however, potentially conflicts
with important development decisions that must be based on learnings and observations of
performance of the reservoir made throughout the life of a field. The need to minimize costs
also is of paramount importance. Thus, the tradeoff between data collection and development
costs is difficult.
Within companies, there is a real need for frankly discussing the kinds of data that must
be collected to maximize long-term production but minimize time between discovery and
start-up. Much of the data that are collected will be field and basin dependent. More-mature
basins, where generic issues concerning the development of different play types are well
known, require different data sets and analytical approaches, compared with new frontiers or
lightly explored plays. For instance, the approach to a new development of the Paleocene
North Sea reservoirs will be different from the new fan plays in deepwater West Africa, northern Gulf of Mexico, or Brazil.
distribution data, fluid properties, initial reservoir pressure data, productivities, and hydrocarbon and water chemistries.
Collection of dynamic data during the life of a field is also of paramount importance,
particularly to maximize production as the field matures. In the future, the need for pressure
monitoring through downhole gauges will be essential to subsea tiebacks and similar production scenarios that minimize intervention. The use of time-lapse 3D seismic imaging for
monitoring fluid movement is increasing and has been used successfully in areas only where
favorable reservoir properties exist (Calvert, 2005). This seismic monitoring can be accomplished in two primary ways: by placing permanent geophones on the seafloor and acquiring
data at different times (e.g., Foinaven field, West of Shetland; Entralgo and Spitz, 2001) or by
conducting repeated 3D seismic surveys using similar acquisition parameters (e.g., Forties
field, U.K. North Sea; Leonard et al., 2000).
3
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13 YRS
7 YEARS
-10000
-9000
-8000
15000
-7000
-6000
10000
-5000
-4000
-3000
5000
-2000
-1000
0
2000
2002
2000
1998
1996
1990
-5000
1983
1000
20000
Discoveries by Year
Figure 2-22. Oil flow rates for West Africa discoveries in >100-m water depth, ordered by year. Note the initial
steady increase in flow rate as the industry moved into deeper water. A decrease has occurred during the last
two recorded years, probably reflecting both the limits of learning and a maturing prospect inventory in
Angola. Reprinted with permission of the Gulf Coast Section SEPM Foundation.
k
2-48
Business and technology trends of deep water: Key learnings and future challenges
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A: Gulf of M exico
15
10
1999
1997
1998
1997
1996
1995
1995
1991
1990
1989
1988
1986
2000
Brazil
15
NW Europe
West Africa
10
1999
1996
1995
1996
0
1992
Help
B: I nter national
1985
Search
Ref. List
1984
1981
12
Figure 2-23. Discovery to first production for deepwater developments: (a) northern Gulf of Mexico, (b) international: Brazil, northwest Europe offshore, and West Africa. Much of the reduction in development time
since 1990 in the northern Gulf of Mexico resulted from advancing infrastructure and subsea developments;
however, the remaining reduction represents the learning curve for industry. The other areas use floating production schemes. Therefore, most of the reduction in Brazil is due to the learning curve. Unconfined reservoirs
in the West of Shetlands are problematical for development economics, and minor advances have been made
in reduction time. West Africa is in its earliest years and may soon achieve a learning curve similar to those for
Brazil and the Gulf of Mexico. Reprinted with permission of the Gulf Coast Section SEPM Foundation.
k
Reduced cycle time is illustrated by two pairs of fields discovered 1416 years apart in
two different provinces. The Jolliet field (discovered in August 1981) and Bullwinkle field
(discovered in October 1983) were two of the initial deepwater discoveries in the northern
Gulf of Mexico. Both fields were developed as if they held deltaic reservoirs like those in the
shelf fields to the north. In the case of Bullwinkle, the reservoirs consist of sheets and channel
fill (Holman and Robertson, 1994; Shew, 1997); for Jolliet, reservoirs are channel fill and thinbed levees (Schneider and Clifton, 1995). Development facilities were designed with many
drilling slots that were never used, because both fields performed far better than expected. For
both fields, full production was reached 89 years after discovery. In general, the rigs were
overengineered and were never used to their full capacity. After reaching its production
decline, Bullwinkle platform was used as a hub for subsea tiebacks for other fields (Rocky,
Troika, Angus, Manatee).
In contrast, two large fields discovered offshore Equatorial Guinea in West Africa in the
middle to late 1990s illustrate how lessons were learned in development and design. The
Zafiro field, discovered by Mobil and partners in March 1995, was fast-tracked for develop2-49
3
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ment, with initial oil produced 17 months later (Humphreys et al., 1999). The Ceiba field was
discovered in October 1999 by Triton and partners, and development was fast tracked (Dailly
et al., 2002). The first oil was produced from an FPSO (Floating Production, Storage and Offloading) unit 13-1/2 months after initial discovery. Continued production of both fields
eventually led to the development of platforms being set, in addition to the initial FPSO units.
However, there are problems in developing a geologic model that later may be wrong.
Subsea development
Subsea wells will increasingly be used for development in two main areas: single-well
tiebacks from small discoveries, and where several smaller fields can be tied back to one gathering production facility. Subsea development has had an important impact on how and
whether small discoveries can be developed without large investment. Subsea development
techniques are becoming standard in basins with a modest to well-developed infrastructure.
Current records for length of the tieback are 48 km (30 mi) for oil and 100 km (65 mi) for gas
(Mensa field, northern deep Gulf of Mexico; Pfeiffer et al., 2000). What makes subsea development unique is that investment can be done in a staged fashion, where the initial investment
is smaller and can be increased with favorable learnings. However, as a total investment, subsea development is costlier than a central processing facility.
The Na Kika subsea development in the northern deep Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi Canyon protraction area) illustrates this important development. Na Kika Development consists of
six oil and gas fields discovered during the past 15 years in different water depths: Kepler
(1987, 5600 ft [1700 m]; oil), Fourier (1989, 6000 ft [1800 m], oil and gas), Ariel (1995, 6500
ft [1980 m], oil), Herschel (1996, 6000 ft [1800 m], oil), East Antsey (1997, 7000 ft [2100 m],
dry gas), and Coulomb (1988, 7592 feet [2314 m] gas). None of the fields has large enough
reserves to warrant a stand-alone development structure. Instead, a host platform was established, consisting of a permanently moored, floating and development system. Different
pipelines are used for oil and gas. Initial production began in November 2003. Total ultimate
production is estimated to be 300 million BOE. The Coulomb gas field was brought on line in
2004.
The use of subsea wells is an application that has grown substantially during the past
decade, yet significant problems remain. Reliability of this process is essential because the
industry, as a whole, has experienced many mechanical failures on subsea wells during the
first year of production. In the future, a number of issues must be addressed with more rigorous requirements: the use of these facilities in remote areas, an utmost reliability, and
nonintervention, once the wells are turned on.
Reservoir monitoring
The future possibilities for intelligent oil-field development, using automation of reservoir monitoring of the field, have been summarized by Entralgo and Spitz (2001), Hottman
and Curtis (2001), and Lumley (2001). This will include a number of technologies capable of
measuring fluid movement through time, both with seismic monitoring and downhole pressure
gauges. Downhole pressure gauges have been essential for development, yet they have a history of breaking down after a few years of use.
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Business and technology trends of deep water: Key learnings and future challenges
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Regional scale
1.
Search
2.
Help
3.
4.
5.
Establish the major plate-tectonic setting, basin evolution, patterns of basin fill, and basinwide controls on the following petroleum parameters: source-rock deposition, maturation, migration, trap formation, reservoir and seal deposition.
Establish the approximate areal extent of petroleum source rock(s), their richness, and
their maturation. This can be difficult in frontier areas, where the source rock has not
been penetrated and can only be estimated from seismic data.
Recognize the basinwide sequence stratigraphic framework (second- to fourth-order
relationships) and its relationship to tectonostratigraphic packages (Chapter 3).
Recognize basin-scale depositional environments: shelf-slope-basin transitions, sandrich provenances, and entry areas for coarser-grained sediment into the deepwater
basins.
Map regional patterns and trends of deepwater deposition: channels, levees, and sheets
(Chapter 6 through Chapter 8)
Play scale
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
tional systems using 3D seismic data. These systems commonly are good analogs for the
underlying deep, buried-slope deepwater systems that are the prospects. After initial
exploration drilling, the seismic response is calibrated to the rock physics of the sediments.
Prospect scale
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2.
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3.
4.
5.
As we discussed above, most companies still stress structural prospects (e.g.. salt and
shale structures, strike-slip faults, foldbelts, growth faults) in their portfolios, even
though most prospects are combined stratigraphic-structural traps (Figures 2-1a to 2-1c).
Good stratigraphic control is necessary for mapping sand-prone portions of structures.
In certain cases, well control somewhat delimits the reservoirs extent. However, in most
deepwater cases, 3D seismic data are employed to fully delimit the extent of the reservoir. Additional 3D analyses of seismic attributes, such as amplitude extractions, frequency, continuity cubes (edge cubes), artificial intelligence, or combinations of
these, help develop map views of deepwater architecture such as channels, sheets, and
thin beds in overbank settings. Commonly, detailed analyses will reduce the amount of
reservoir placed in these structures, much to the chagrin of the exploration team.
The recovery factor used for this reservoir analysis is most important, as is the portion of
the mapped trap that is effectively recoverable, that is, limits of reservoir continuity
and connectivity may reduce the effective size of the prospect. In some cases, the proportion of the in-place resources that will be recovered is further reduced when the most
profitable development plan is one that would only develop part of the field (most commonly, in subsea production tie-ins).
Analyses of direct hydrocarbon indicators (DHIs), such as seismic amplitude anomalies
including bright spots, seismic flat spots, and amplitude-variation-with-offset (AVO)
anomalies are most important in obtaining managements approval for a prospect
(Rudolph, 2001; Brown, 2004). Although some companies are moving into non-DHI
plays, most deepwater prospects still live and die with these analyses. Many companies
are recognizing more-subtle low-amplitude plays, including prospects that lack fullstack anomalies but have far-angle anomalies. Two recent symposia on exploration dry
holes have revealed notable failures in DHI analyses (Houston Geological Society, 2000,
2003). Although AVOs success is unequivocal in some basins, such as the northern Gulf
of Mexico, its overall success in basins worldwide has been limited (e.g., West of Shetlands, Loizou, 2003). Common prospect-scale evaluation steps to define the quality of a
seismic anomaly that is thought to be a DHI include (a) calibration to well control in
both positive and negative examples, including, but not limited to, synthetic seismograms, fluid substitutions, and wedge models; (b) presence of a downdip conformance
of the anomaly to a structural contour, indicating a hydrocarbon-water contact; (c) presence of a flat spot (Rudolph, 2001); (d) visual inspection of near- and far-angle gathers,
crossplots, and sophisticated analyses (Society of Exploration Geophysicists, 2000); and
(e) understanding DHI pitfalls in the prospect area (Figure 2-11).
In addition to the aforementioned use of seismic anomalies to detect fluid indicators,
seismic amplitude is also a reliable predictor of lithology in most deepwater basins.
Hence, it is employed to define reservoir and seal. In several oil-bearing deepwater
basins, amplitude anomalies are indicators of lithology only but are still a critical aspect
of defining a stratigraphic trap and a drillable prospect location.
Technological improvements have helped to analyze bed-bed subsequence architecture
(amplitude extractions, amplitude seeding in volume visualization products, quantified
2-52
seismic facies mapping, other attribute analyses) for individual sand mapping. Often, the
use of these tools leads explorationists to avoid a thorough stratigraphic analysis, sometimes to the long-term detriment of the prospect.
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2.
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4.
Global exploration in deepwater settings has significantly increased during the past
decade, adding 74 billion BOE discovered. However, globally deep water remains an
immature frontier, accounting for less than 5% of the current worldwide total oil-equivalent resources. Only about 20% of the discovered deepwater resources are developed,
and less than 5% have been produced.
Most of the exploration activity has concentrated in only three areas of the world, with a
majority of the discovered resources in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and West
Africa. Consequently, large portions of the worlds deepwater margins remain lightly
explored. Deepwater gas exploration is extremely immature, reflecting current infrastructure and economic limitations, but it is destined to become a major future focus.
The petroleum systems of deepwater margins are highly variable among different
basins. Successful exploration efforts will depend on an understanding of the differences
both within and among basins. Oil source rocks include synrift lacustrine, open-marine
(postrift), and transported delta-plain material. Gas source rocks include disseminated
organic material and biogenic gas. Timing of petroleum generation and migration is a
crucial factor in deep water and is highly variable, depending on the margins geologic
evolution, basin heat-flow history, and the distribution of fetch areas in space and time.
Migration conduits (faults, carrier beds) must also be in place at the crucial moment. Oil
quality is a major issue for economics in many basins, most often because of immature
heavy oils but occasionally because of sulfur and wax contents.
Most reservoirs in deep water are associated with gravity deposits, although in some
basins, shallow-water carbonates and siliciclastics are potential reservoirs. Trapping
styles vary considerably in the deep water associated with faulting, salt and shale defor2-53
5.
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mation, and contractional features. Purely stratigraphic traps occur infrequently; however, many traps have a stratigraphic component and some are reduced or enlarged by a
stratigraphic pinch-out. Adequate seals are present because shale dominates in these
basins, although potential leakage can be a significant risk.
Five main themes will drive deepwater exploration in the future: (a) a continuation of
established trends; (b) emerging trends that include basins lacking updip production,
unconfined basins, compressive margins, pre-Cenozoic targets, nondeepwater targets,
and non-DHI targets; (c) increased exploration specifically for gas; (d) going deeper:
ultradeepwater and deeper drilling; and (e) politically driven opportunities.
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