Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
January 2010
The views and opinions expressed in this document and the oral testimony I will provide to the Financial Crisis Inquiry
Commission are solely my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of my employer or any other institution or person I
am currently affiliated with or have been in the past.
Industry on Steroids
1) Excessive Loan Growth
3) Concentration of Assets
7) Accountants Assisted
8) Regulators Aided
9) Government Facilitated
12%
10%
Securitization (Est.)
8%
6%
4% Loans
2%
0%
GDP Growth Loan Growth
50%
40%
40%
30%
32%
20%
10%
2%
0%
1992 19 94 1996 19 98 2000 2002 2004 2 006 2008
Leases
Agriculture
Farmland
Credit Cards
Total Loans
Home Equity
Page 6
4) Balance Sheet Leverage
Leverage increased
15 x
Banks
14 x
13 x
12 x
11 x
Tang assets/(Tang equity + reserves)
10 x
19 93 199 5 1997 1 999 20 01 200 3 2005 2 007
Securities Industry
40x
35x
Assets/Total Equity
30x
25x
20x
15x
10x
1980s 1990s 2000s
Page 7
5) More Exotic Securities
Fees are a larger percentage of revenues
Fees as % of Revenues
45 %
40 %
35 %
30 %
25 %
20 %
15 %
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
Source: FDIC -All Banks
Household Debt-to-GDP
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
48
54
60
66
72
78
84
87
96
99
02
05
08
90
45
51
57
63
69
75
81
93
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Source: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Reserves to Loans
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Source: FDIC – All banks
25 (bps)
20
15
10
0
1935 1941 1947 1953 1959 1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007
$3.5
$3.1
$3.0
$2.5
$2.0
$Trillion
$1.5
$1.0
$0.5
$0.5
$0.0
1990 2009_Q3
45%
Compensation/(Revenue less loan losses)
40%
35%
30%
25%
Compensation/Revenue
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009