Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
6, 627-644
Decision-making
D. J. FRENCH,
R. J. WEST,J. ELANDER
and J. M. WILDING
Psychology Department, Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, University of London,
Egham, Surrey TW20 OEX, UK
Keywords: Driving; Accident involvement; Survey; Questionnaire; Decision-making; Driving
style.
In an exploratory postal survey of 711 drivers stratified by age, sex, annual
mileage, and accident involvement, decision-making style was measured using a
Decision-Making Questionnaire (DMQ) and driving style was assessed using a
Driving Style Questionnaire (DSQ). Responses to 21 items of the DMQ formed
seven independent and internally coherent dimensions according to a principal
components (PC) analysis. These were labelled: control, thoroughness,
instinctiveness, social resistance, hesitancy, perfectionism, and idealism. PC
analysis also revealed that responses to 15 items of the DSQ formed six
independent dimensions of driving style. These were labelled: speed, calmness,
social resistance, focus, planning, and deviance. Multiple regression analysis
indicated that drivers of 60 years and under who scored lower on thoroughness
were at greater risk of a traffic accident and that this relationship was mediated by
faster driving. This relationship was independent of age, sex, annual mileage, and
all other factors measured. In the drivers over 60 years, lower thoroughness,
greater hesitancy, and faster driving were independently associated with higher
accident rates independent of all other factors measured. The results provide
preliminary support for the view that people import aspects of their general
decision-making style into the driving situation, and that in so doing they put
themselves at differential risk of having a road traffic accident.
1.
Introduction
$1O'()()
1993 Taylor
&
Francis
Ltd.
628
D. J. French et al.
liability by looking at the way that they are reflected in driving style (e.g., choice of
speed).
Style of decision-making involves those aspects of the decision process in which
individuals may be presumed to adopt a common mode of operation across a wide
range of decision domains. Thus for the concept to apply there must be crosssituational stability. Examples of decision-making style may be: how far individuals
are prepared to examine the pros and cons of various options before making up their
minds; the level of risk that they will accept in return for an optimum outcome; and
the relative importance of emotions in making a decision which could be reached
analytically.
There are several existing questionnaire measures of decision-making style. One of
these (Buck and Daniels 1984) was developed from Harren's (1979) Model of Career
Decision-Making. Individuals are characterized by scores on one of three scales:
rational, intuitive, or dependent. Rational decision-makers seek relevant information,
look carefully at future consequences, and act deliberately and logically. Those who are
intuitive in their decision-making show little anticipation of future consequences or
systematic information-seeking.
Dependent decision makers do not take
responsibility for their decisions, but take the path of least resistance, having a high
need for social approval. Arroba (1977) devised a classification of decision-making
which was applied subsequently to career decision-making by Hesketh (1982).
Arroba's taxonomy was derived by interviewing subjects regarding recent decisions
that they had made; six styles of decision-making emerged. These were emotional,
intuitive, rational, hesitant, compliant, and no-thought. The six styles were found to
fall along an active-passive continuum, with rational and hesitant being the most
active and compliant the least active. Hesketh found that one year after careers
counselling, subjects who had reported a rational decision-making style were most
likely to have achieved a match between their aspirations and their current situation,
whereas emotional and compliant individuals were least likely to have done so.
Johnson (1978) has proposed a more general theory of decision-making style, but
this too has been investigated and reported only in the context of careers counselling.
It proposes two independent aspects of decision-making style; information gathering
and information analysis. Information may be gathered spontaneously or
systematically and analysed internally or externally. A questionnaire, the Johnson
Decision-Making Inventory (JDMI-Johnson
et al. 1983), has been designed to
assess these dimensions.
Gordon et al. (1986) studied the relationship between Johnson's dimensions and
Harren's styles, which were assessed using the Assessment of Career DecisionMaking Scale (ACDMS-Buck and Daniels 1984). A factor analysis of the scale
scores, three from the ACDMS and four from the JDMI, showed that the first factor
was identified by strong positive loadings for systematic (John son) and rational
(Harren) and an equally high negative loading for intuitive (Harren). The second
factor was characterized by positive loadings for external and spontaneous (Johnson)
and dependent (Harren). The third factor was Johnson's internal.
The link between Johnson's and Harren's inventories suggests that, by self-report
at least, there is an identifiable trait of decision-making style; conceptual similarities
between these and Arroba's (1977) taxonomy support this conclusion. Had Arroba's
styles been included in Gordon et al.'s investigation, one might have expected further
factors to emerge, indicating that neither the JDMI nor the ACDMS are identifying
the full range of decision-making styles.
629
All of the above attempts to characterize decisions and decision makers have
potential contributions to make to a comprehensive account of individual
differences in decision-making style. However, there is no comprehensive decisionmaking questionnaire available.
This paper reports the development of a questionnaire measuring general
decision-making style and its relationship with driving behaviour, also measured by
questionnaire, and involvement in road traffic accidents. The ultimate aim was to
trace a path from certain aspects of decision-making style to differential likelihood of
accident involvement.
2. Methods
2.1. Materials
In order to develop a questionnaire on decision-making style, a number of ways in
which the decision process might differ were generated. Some of these corresponded
to dimensions used in questionnaires already in existence. Thus Johnson's
internal/external distinction and the compliant and dependent dimensions were
represented by items about preference for consultation and advice and susceptibility
to social pressure. The emotional and logical versus intuitive categories were
reflected in questions about the role of feelings in decision-making.
Questions were also added asking about locus of control (Rotter 1966). In
addition, examination of normative theories of decision-making (Simon 1957, Janis
and Mann 1977, Edwards 1954) led to consideration of depth of search through
consequences of courses of action, breadth of search through different options,
degree of planning ahead, use of principled versus pragmatic solutions, use of
satisficing versus optimizing decision rules, risk acceptance, degree of certainty about
a decision, and level of commitment to it.
Several versions of a questionnaire containing items relating to these dimensions
were tested and items deleted or modified according to whether subjects appeared to
be able and willing to answer them consistently and informatively.
This resulted in a 30-item Decision-Making Questionnaire (DMQ). DMQ items
were phrased as questions asking about frequency of a given type of behaviour and
subjects were instructed to tick one of six boxes that indicated that they behaved in
this way: never or very infrequently, infrequently, quite infrequently, quite
frequently, frequently, very frequently or always.
A questionnaire about driving style was also developed. The choice of items for
inclusion was based on behaviours that had previously been shown, or were
suspected, lo be related to accident involvement or risky driving behaviour. These
were speed (Wasielewski 1984), headway (distance to the car in front-Evans and
Wasielewski 1983), seat belt use (Evans et al. 1982), gap acceptance (size of gap in the
flow of traffic before attempting to pull out-Bottom and Ashworth 1978), and traffic
light violations (Koneci et al. 1976). In addition, the questionnaire included items
about behaviours thought to be directly related to decision-making style. For
example, specific questions about feeling in control when driving, some of which
were based on Montag and Comrey's (1987) scale of driving internality and
externality which proved to have a reliable factor structure, were included. Questions
were also asked about reactions to advice when driving, route planning, and risktaking on the road. Responses were on the same six-point scale of frequency as the
decision-making questionnaire.
630
D. J. French et al.
The DMQ and driving style questionnaires were put together in a package which
also included questions about biographical details, miles driven annually and
accident involvement during the previous year. Data on accident involvement for up
to three years prior to this was available from a questionnaire previously completed
by the same subjects (see below).
2.2. Subjects and procedures
The questionnaire package was sent to 980 drivers in all parts of the UK. The sample
was a subset of 30 000 drivers who had previously been randomly selected from those
licensed at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) Swansea to take part in
a questionnaire survey conducted by National Opinion Polls for the Transport and
Road Research Laboratory. In the survey, they gave details of their driving habits
and accident records for the past three years, as well as personal details, and at the
end indicated whether they would be willing to help with further research. The data
gathered during this exercise provided information necessary for stratification ofthe
sample selected for this study by age, sex, annual mileage and accident involvement.
Thus our sample was not representative of the population at large, but it enabled us
to take account of the relationship of exposure, age, and sex with accident rates.
Table 1 shows the stratification of the sample.
Males24
15
25
16
60+
25-59
50
No
Low
accid.
50
50 1.=of1-10765
2:
2:1
1Table
accid.
low
mileage
Stratification
the sample.
miles p.a.
Age
18-24
Females-Iow
high
mileage
mileage>
10765
miles
= 1-4848
miles p.a.
p.a.miles p.a.
high
mileage>4848
Completed questionnaires were returned by 711 drivers, 73% of those who were
sent one. There was a tendency for a slightly higher response rate among older
subjects (chi squared = 714 with 2 degrees of freedom, p<005), but otherwise there
were no differences in response rates between different cells of the stratification. In
the analyses described below, degrees of freedom may be reduced in certain cases
because of missing data.
2.3. Statistical analyses
The analysis was carried out in six stages:
(1) assessment of the internal coherence and derivation of subscales for the
Decision-Making Questionnaire (DMQ);
(2) investigation of relationships between DMQ scores and age and sex;
631
(3) assessment of the internal coherence and derivation of subscales for the
Driving Style Questionnaire (DSQ);
(4) investigation ofrelationships between DSQ scores and age and sex;
(5) investigation of relationship between decision-making and driving style and
accident rates;
(6) modelling of the role of decision-making style and driving style in the
causation of accidents using multiple regression.
Some of the variables used in the analyses did not conform to a normal distribution
therefore differences and correlations were analysed using both parametric and nonparametric methods, with near identical results. For the purposes of presentation
parametric statistics are reported throughout. In tests of significance, two-tailed tests
were used unless otherwise indicated.
3. Results
3.1. Internal coherence and derivation of subscale scores for the DMQ
A principal components analysis of the DMQ yielded seven components with
eigenvalues greater than one. Together they accounted for 543% of the variance.
These seven independent dimensions were interpreted by examining the contents of
the variables loading highly upon them. Table 2 shows the item loadings on each of
the components after varimax rotation. A criterion of 04 as used as the minimum
loading for an item to be incorporated in a dimension. Nine of the 30 items did not
meet this criterion for any dimension and were excluded from further analysis. The
Table 2. Items loading on the dimensions of decision-making style.
Factor
Loadings
Items
I. Thoroughness
(179% of variance)
079
-070
065
064
076
075
072
-058
2. Control
(95% of variance)
-045
3. Hesitancy
(79% of variance)
4. Social resistance
(65% of variance)
5. Perfectionism
(58% of variance)
6. Idealism
(52% of variance)
7. Instinctiveness
(50% of variance)
*Item abbreviated.
070
057
055
070
-057
055
070
069
080
-069
067
061
D. J. French et al.
632
FIG 1a CONTROL
30
SUBSCALE
FIG 1b THOROUGHNESS
SCORE
SUBSCALE
25
SEM
28
23
26
21
24
SCORE
SEM
19
//*22
"
,+----+-/
//"
/-..j</
15
-+
MALES
FEMALES
SCORE
-+
MALES
FEMALES
SUBSCALE
SCORE
15~----~~~~~~---~~--~,
SE.M.
SEM
13
13
"
11
15 -,~~-~--~~--~--~---~-
.+
AGE CATEGORY
FIG 1c HESITANCY
SUBSCALE
'
AGE CATEGORY
-
/+
-+//
17
20
//
~--+
......--1-<-
'~/
-- --~+
11
/+---+
~
9
f-
AGE CATEGORY
-
MALES
-+
FEMALES
"'+'/
""..--
AGE CATEGORY
-
MALES
-+
FEMALES
remaining 21 items were used to produce scores for each of the seven dimensions of
decision-making style by reversing the scoring for items with negative loadings and
summing the ratings for items contributing to each dimension.
As a check on the stability of the factor solution, we carried out separate principal
components analyses on two randomly-drawn subsampIes, each comprising half the
overall sample. The results indicated the same pattern ofloadings in both subsamples
633
FIG 1e PERFECTIONISM
SUBSCALE
SUBSCALE
SCORE
15~------
SCORE
15 ~,------~-----------~
S.EN
13
13
11
11
S.EM
~--~5
5'~-~--~--~-~--~--~-~
3
-+
MALES
AGE CATEGORY
AGE CATEGORY
-
/:'><
FEMALES
MALES
-+
FEMALES
FIG 19 INSTINCTIVENESS
SUBSCALE
15~~-----
SCORE
SEM
13
11
//+-
, ---+----+---+//~
~.
AGE CATEGORY
-
MALES
-+. FEMALES
and these were the same as were found in the analysis that had been carried out on the
full sample. The distributions of scores on each of the seven subscales were examined.
They were distributed approximately normally with a good spread of values.
3.2. Relationships between DMQ scores and age and sex
Each dimension of decision-making style was correlated with age using Pearson's R.
634
SD
014
-091
mean
0172'79**
76
015
016
222
11-3
79
015062
016
182
-108
94
177
value
for
t112
018
017
-076
67
019
019020
013
349***
234
-014***
sex
015
difference
mean
95
020***
Females
scores
66
72
017***
79
015***
008
Males
scores
009**
D. J. French
et al. with age and sex.
(n=366)
(n=343)
(n=709)
Relationships
of
decision-making
dimensions
Correlation
*p<005
**p<OOl
***p<OOO1.
Loading
Item
081
079
078
081
-069
068
-082
081
070
069
061
-082
079
084
060
*Item abbreviated.
Sex differences were examined using t-tests. The results are given in table 3. Figure I
shows the mean scores on each dimension in various age categories for the males and
females.
Control increased with age, the greatest increase being between the under 20s and
over 20s. Males scored significantly higher than females overall, the difference
disappearing at 60 years (figure Ia). There was a steady increase in thoroughness
between late teens and 30s with no discernible change thereafter (figure Ib). There
was no sex difference. Hesitancy showed a small negative correlation with age. The
group means showed that there was a decline up to the age of 30 with no change
thereafter (figure le). Social resistance showed a very small positive association with
age and there was no sex difference (figure Id). Perfectionism showed a negative
correlation with age brought about by a fall after the age of fifty (figure le). Idealism
showed a significant positive correlation with age, the main difference being between
those under and over fifty (figure If). Instinctiveness showed a positive correlation
with age caused by a rise after the age of 50, and a sex difference, with females being
more instinctive than males (figure 19).
635
FIG 2a SPEED
15
SUBSCALE
SUBSCALE
SCORE
20
SEM
13
18
11
16
+-,
,,,
,
"+----+
'I
SCORE
------------------~
SE.M.
14
-v--
+----+..,
",+
__
-+
MALES
FEMALES
S.E.M
13
18
11
16
_'_ __
_'__ _
__1
-+. FEMALES
MALES
SUBSCALE SCORE
20,--------------------,
SCORE
15
FIG 2d FOCUS
FIG 20 PLANNING
SUBSCALE
__L __
AGE CATEGORY
AGE CATEGORY
-
--,+--
_-I"
12
10 ~I--~--~-~
-+---+-
/ /,
SEM.
-+----+
"'
14
+-_---1"
*---+-- - //
+---- //
~-+
12
10
MALES
-+. FEMALES
AGE CATEGORY
AGE CATEGORY
-
MALES
-+
FEMALES
3.3. Internal coherence and derivation of subscale scores for the DSQ
A principal components analysis of the driving style questions revealed six
components accounting for 394% of the variance. The six dimensions were
interpreted as speed (made up of items about driving fast and exceeding the speed
limit), calmness (items about staying calm in dangerous situations and when there is
little time to think), planning (consulting a map and planning places to stop and rest
D. J. French et al.
636
FIG 21 DEVIANCE
15
SUBSCALE
SUBSCALE
SCORE
r-------------------,
10
SCORE
r-------------------~
I
S.EM
S.E.M.
13
11
......
, --
+-~---+.-
"-
-+-
,,
-r- __ _..I
--
" ---+
I
--'2
o~' -~-~-~-~~-~-~3
MALES
-+
FEMALES
AGE CATEGORY
AGE CATEGORY
-
__
MALES
-+
FEMALES
Figure 2. Driving Style Questionnaire (DSQ) subscale scores broken down by age group and
sex. Age group 1= 17-19; 2=20-29; 3=30-39; 4=40-49; 5=50-59; 6=60 and over.
before setting out), focus (driving cautiously and ignoring distractions), social
resistance (disliking being given advice about driving), and deviance (jumping the
lights and overtaking on the inside). Table 4 shows the dimensions, the percentage of
variance that they accounted for and the item loadings. As with the DMQ, subscale
scores were calculated for driving style dime.,,:sionsby reversing the coding of ratings
with negative loadings and then adding up the items with loadings greater than 04.
Also, as with the DMQ, separate principal components analyses were carried out on
two randomly-selected subsamples each comprising half of the full sample. The
resulting loadings were similar in both subsamples and both were similar to the
results of the analysis on the full sample, indicating a stable structure.
3.4. Relationships
The relationship between each driving style dimension and age and sex was tested
using Pearson's R correlations to investigate changes with age and t-tests to look at
the sex differences. In the case of deviance and planning scores, we also examined
relationships in which these variables had been recoded into dichotomies to avoid
the problem of undue influence of extreme scores. The results were nearly identical to
those using the untransformed variables so, for the sake of presentational
consistency, we report the simple Pearson correlations here. The mean-scores for
each age group of males and females on each dimension were examined in order to
establish the nature of the relationships. Figure 2 shows the results graphically. Table
5 shows the correlations with age, and the sex differences in the driving style
dimensions.
Speed showed a steady decrease with age in both sexes and females scored lower
637
than males at all ages (figure 2a). Calmness showed a positive correlation with age
which was brought about by a rise in the 50s and over. Females reported themselves
to be less calm than did males (figure 2b). There was no sex difference in scores on
planning and the positive correlation with age was largely accounted for by an
increase in scores between the 20s and 30s with little change thereafter (figure 2c).
Scores on focus showed a small positive correlation with age, a more or less linear
effect, whilst females reported being more focused than males (figure 2d). Social
resistance in a driving context showed no sex difference. The negative correlation
with age was significant but small (figure 2e). Self reports of deviant behaviour
showed a significant decrease with age (figure 2t). There was no sex difference.
IH
SD
27
1409
37
39
28
31
29
384
73
-24
051
*102
91
Table
5.
Female
scores
1-3
27
63131
mean
mean
136
-04
72
016***
-004n.s.
91
027***
Male
n.s.
28
147
017*** style dimensions with age and sex.
***
-0'12**
-035***
-018***
(n=366)
(n=343)
(n=709)
Sex
difference
(t) scores
Relationship
of
driving
Correlation
*p<005
**p<O'Ol
***p<OOOl.
>
Calmness
Soc.
Focus
res. -000
001
003
002
007
005
003
001
001
-010**
-011
-002
-003
Deviance
0'12**
-001
009*
004
-007
021***
045***
001
-015***
017***
041
004
0003
06
**
***
-005
-001
-025***
-001
-002
-017***
-000
-0'11**
006
Table -005
6.
021***
0'13***
023***
-015***
**p<OOl
***p<OOOl.
Correlations
between dimensions of decision-making and driving style.
Planning
Speed
638
D. J. French et al.
measure. The annualized accident rate for the three years prior to our study (the total
number of accidents divided by the reporting period in years), as determined by the
NOP survey which preceded ours (see section 2), was correlated with the rate during
the following year as assessed by our postal questionnaire. This yielded an R of O 305
(p<000l). This gives an estimate of the extent to which accident rates are a reliable
indication of underlying accident liability and sets an approximate upper limit of
around 9% on the percentage of variance in our recorded accident rates that we can
predict with psychological measures.
The possibility that the correlation for the annualized rates between the two
periods over which accidents were recorded was artificially inflated by covariance in
the annual mileage was considered but annual mileage was not, in fact, related to the
annualized accident rates for the first three years because of the stratification of our
sample by mileage and accident involvement (R=OOl).
Table 7 includes correlations between DMQ subscale scores and accident rates.
Two dimensions of decision-making style correlated to a small but significant degree
with annualized accident rates calculated over all four years; they were thoroughness
and instinctiveness.
Table 7. Correlations between decision-making style and driving style dimensions and
accidents per year, recoded 0, 1, > 1.
-005
-011
-003
-006
-002
006
-001
-006
011*
-002
-006
022***
001sample
-007
000
-004
-006
011
002
R:
008*
over
60s
003
008*
004
-018*
-009*
-012**
017**
-010**
022***
-009**
-001
002
-002
004
-001
0'18*
(n=
130)
(n=575)
R:
whole
**p<OOl
***p<OOO1.
(n=
575)
nd under
Table 7 also shows the correlations obtained between the driving style dimensions
and accident rates. Speed was the most important predictor of accident rates but
planning and deviance also correlated significantly.
3.6. Modelling causes of accident liability
In order to ensure that all possible confounding between predictor variables was
eliminated, a forced entry multiple regression was carried out in which all those
variables that had shown significant bivariate correlations with accident rates were
entered as possible predictors.
Decision-making
639
and RTAs
~
-.12 p<.02
Thorough I '"
--+
-.24 p<.001 . ~
~
.16/
.15
p<.
001
-.20 p<.001
c:J
Fig 3b Drivers aged over 60
G
S..
r-:::I---. E
':;:P<OI
esltant
.25 p<.OI
Speed
20p<.05
.18
~P<.05
Figure 3. Models of accident liability in the postal survey sample. Figure 3a shows the model
for drivers under 60 years. Figure 3b shows the model for drivers over 60 years. Each path
is accompanied by the partial standardized regression coefficient and associated
significance level.
It turned out that, because of the stratification, sex did not correlate significantly
with accident rate. However, in the case of age, there was a relationship and it was
clearly non-linear in our sample. Accident rates decreased with age up to 60 years
(R=-0'15,
p<OOl) and then increased slightly (R=OlO). This required us to
consider those up to 60 and those over 60 separately because when partialling out age
effects, a simple linear regression model would not have been appropriate. This is
why table 7 shows the correlations of DMQ and DSQ scores with accident rates
separately for these age groups. In the younger age group, despite our stratification,
there was a significant relationship between annual mileage and accident rates
(R=O13, p=O003). There was no relationship in the older age group (R=003).
We carried out conventional forced entry multiple regression analyses for the two
D. J. French et al.
640
Table 8. Correlations of age, sex, mileage, and DMQ subscale scores with speed in 60s and
under and over 60s.
<=60
Thoroughness
Hesitancy
Resistance
Perfectionism
Idealism
Instinctiveness
Age
Sex
Mileage
*p<005
yrs
-028**
-001
001
001
002
005
-027**
-026**
022**
>60 yrs
-004
-006
008
003
-011
025*
-002
015
017
**p<OOl.
age groups separately in which all variables with significant simple correlations with
accident rates were entered together. The predictor variables were speed, deviance,
planning, thoroughness, instinctive ness, age, and annual mileage in the 60s and
under, and speed, thoroughness, hesitancy, and age in the over 60s. In the 60s and
under, both age and speed independently predicted accident rates (see figure 3a). In
the over 60s, speed, thoroughness, and hesitancy all independently predicted
accident rates (see figure 3b). Because of the importance of speed as a predictor of
accident rates, we examined the relationships between DMQ subscale scores and
speed in the 60s and under and the over 60s separately (table 8). In the younger age
group, age, sex, annual mileage, and thoroughness correlated with speed. In the older
age group, only instinctiveness correlated with speed. To examine further the
predictors of speed in the younger age group, we carried out a forced entry multiple
regression analysis in which age, sex, mileage, and thoroughness were entered
together. As shown in figure 3a, all these variables made independent contributions
to predicting speed.
4. Discussion
The 21 items of the DMQ were shown to comprise seven independent dimensions of
decision-making style. The distributions of scores on these subscales were
approximately normal and showed a good spread across subjects. The dimensions
were labelled thoroughness, control, hesitancy, social resistance, perfectionism,
idealism, and instinctiveness.
Fifteen items on the Driving Style Questionnaire were found to comprise six
dimensions labelled speed, calmness, planning, focus, social resistance (driving), and
deviance. Thoroughness correlated significantly with all dimensions of driving style.
Among a large set of significant correlations the two largest were between
throughness in decision-making style and planning in driving style and between
control and calmness in driving style.
Dimensions of both driving style and decision-making style showed significant
correlations with accident rates. These were the driving style dimensions of speed,
planning, and deviance and the decision-making styles of thoroughness and
instinctiveness in those up to 60, and thoroughness and hesitancy in the over 60s.
Multiple regressions showed that in the 60s and under, speed was directly predictive
of accident liability taking account of all other factors, whilst the effect of
641
642
D. J. French et al.
them beginning manoeuvres and changing their mind this could raise their accident
risk. As regards the relationship between instinctiveness and speed in the older
drivers, it may be that a greater feeling ofthe infallibility of one's intuitive judgement
could cause drivers to fail to appreciate the risks they run by driving at higher speed.
Our observation of a link between self-reported driving speed and accident rates
is consistent with the findings of other studies (Engel and Thomsen 1988, Wilson and
Greensmith 1983). Accident rates are a very imprecise measure of accident liability
as demonstrated by the low correlation between accident rates over two successive
periods. In fact the correlation between speed and accident rates was not much less
than the correlation between accident rates measured over two periods. Thus the
importance of speed as a contributory factor to accident liability cannot be
overstated; faster drivers are relatively unsafe drivers. Our self-reported dimension
of speed has been shown in another study to correlate quite well with actual driving
speed. In the study concerned (West et al. 1993), the self-reported speed dimension
of the DSQ correlated 055 with the judgements of drivers' preferred speed made by
two independent in-car observers during a mixed motorway and urban test route. In
that study observed speed also correlated positively with accident rates. Thus, the
relationship between speed and accident liability is consistent and is not an artifact
of our self-report methodology.
The most plausible explanation for the relationship between driving speed and
accident liability is that a direct causal link exists between the two. Minor
misjudgements of distance or timing and unexpected hazards such as patches of ice
on the road are turned into accidents because of excess speed. However, there are
other possibilities which cannot be ruled out. It may be, for example, that faster
drivers engage in particular driving habits which put them at risk. For example, they
may pull out into smaller gaps than other drivers or attend less to the driving task.
Further research is needed to unravel the various possibilities. This may involve
obtaining further data about aspects of driving that are associated with speed, finding
out whether there are certain kinds of accidents to which faster drivers are
particularly susceptible, and assessing whether interventions directed at individual
drivers to reduce their speed reduces their accident rates.
Although deviant driving behaviour correlated significantly with accident rates,
in the multiple regression analysis it was not shown to play an independent role.
Current research indicates that a substantial number of accidents do occur as a direct
result of deviant driving (Reason et al. 1991). However, in our sample they were
relatively uncommon. This may have been due to deviant drivers being less likely to
volunteer for the study. It is also possible that the deviant drivers were unwilling to
report their accidents. Finally, it is possible that there was under-reporting of deviant
driving behaviour. All these factors would act to attenuate the relationship between
self-reported deviant driving and accident rates. The possibility remains, however,
that in the totality of accident statistics, excess speed is a more important factor than
dangerous manoeuvres and that to the extent that traits of fast driving and deviant
driving are separable, fast driving may play a greater role.
Questionnaire methods such as have been used in this study can only be expected
to provide a broad indication of relationships between variables of interest. They
depend on respondents being able to form impressions of their own behaviour and
communicate these using a fixed response format. Thus error of measurement is
likely to limit severely the size of associations. Most of the correlations reported in
this study were low, but reached high levels of statistical significance by virtue ofthe
643
large sample size. Thus, while the pattern of associations point the way towards
potentially important relationships and ultimately to a theory of accident causation,
for the practical prediction of accident rates, it will be necessary to develop and refine
the measures used, perhaps supplementing self-report questionnaires with other
forms of behavioural assessment. We have already mentioned the use of direct
observation of dl-iver behaviour. We are also examining ways of using computerized
tasks and presentation of real and hypothetical decisions as a means of assessing
decision-making style.
There is the danger when questionnaire responses are correlated with other
questionnaire responses, that at least part of the associations found reflect
consistency in response biases rather than underlying psychological dimensions of
interest. It is difficult to envisage how response biases could lie behind the particular
pattern of associations we found. The relatively large number of independent
dimensions of decision-making and driving style, and the relationships between
particular dimensions and accident rates would require a much more elaborate
conception of response biases than has been proposed in the literature.
In conclusion, this study has provided preliminary evidence on a new
questionnaire assessing decision-making style indicating that at least seven
independent dimensions can be isolated. One of these dimensions, which we have
labelled thoroughness, correlated significantly with accident rates. In drivers of 60
and under, this relationship appeared to be mediated by a single aspect of driving
style, preferred driving speed. The results suggest several further lines of
investigation which would help to provide a clearer understanding of why some
drivers have more accidents than others.
Acknowledgement
The work described in this paper was carried out under a contract placed with Royal
Holloway and Bedford New College by the Transport and Road Research
Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire and the paper is published by permission of the
Director. The views expressed in this paper are not necessarily those of the
Department of Transport.
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Received 12 October 1990.
Final revison accepted 8 November 1991.